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TifiaFX

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  1. TifiaFX
    WTI: long positions so far premature 14/02/2020 After falling sharply last month amid the spreading coronavirus infection in China, oil prices seem to have stabilized in February. Investor fears about the massive spread of coronavirus have declined. The rate of spread of the disease appears to be slowing. Expectations for China's economic recovery to recover in the 2nd quarter after falling in the 1st quarter due to coronavirus are supporting commodity prices, including oil. At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 51.50, above the short-term support level (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The next target in case of continued growth will be the resistance levels 54.40 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15). Nevertheless, talking about the resumption of the bull trend is still premature. If investors again begin to receive information about the growing number of patients with coronavirus in China, then global stock indices and commodity prices will again come under pressure. Coronavirus is still the main topic. A signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support level 51.20 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Breakdown of the next important support level of 50.30 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will increase pressure on the price towards its further decline with a long-term goal at support level 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows). Today, investors and oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. According to the latest report, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has grown over the past month by just 6 rigs, to 676 units. A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers. If the Baker Hughes report indicates a decrease in the number of active rigs, this could give a short-term positive impetus to prices. Support Levels: 51.20, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15 Resistance Levels: 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50 Trading Recommendations Sell Stop 50.90. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00, 42.15 Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 50.90. Take-Profit 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  2. TifiaFX
    EUR/USD: negative dynamics persist 13/02/2020 According to the quarterly report submitted by the European Commission on Thursday, the eurozone's total GDP will grow by 1.2% in both 2020 and 2021. Thus, the European Commission confirmed the forecasts presented in November 2019. Among the main risks, the European Commission indicated an outbreak of coronavirus and the uncertainty of US foreign trade policy. The downward risks for the economic outlook were somewhat weakened after the conclusion of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the USA, as well as after the EU and Great Britain managed to avoid Brexit without a deal. However, uncertainty persists, and new sources of risk have emerged, one of which is coronavirus. "The economy of the Eurozone may receive support from a softer and more stimulating fiscal policy, and will also be positively affected by soft financial conditions in some countries", the European Commission added. The inflation forecast for 2020 was raised to 1.3% from 1.2%, and the forecast for 2021 - to 1.4% from 1.3%. The head of the ECB Christine Lagarde also spoke in January about the negative impact on the economy of the Eurozone by the protectionist policy of the United States. During a January 23 press conference, Lagarde said the Eurozone economy is facing "downside risks" due to increased protectionism, bearing in mind, among other things, the threat of US President Donald Trump to impose import duties on European cars. Great Britain left the EU on January 31, however, internal political tensions and uncertainty in the Eurozone remain, but there are no significant signs of a recovery in Europe’s manufacturing sector. It is possible that the ECB will be forced to resort to additional incentive measures, which will further weaken the euro. A recent ECB report suggests that rates could be reduced to -1% or even lower. For the euro, a negative fundamental background prevails so far, creating the prerequisites for a further weakening of the euro. EUR / USD is trading in a zone well below the key resistance level of 1.1128 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), and so far no recovery is expected. Long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions. To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.0953 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1035 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Support Levels: 1.0850, 1.0800 Resistance Levels: 1.0895, 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128 Trading Recommendations Sell Limit 1.0890, Sell Stop 1.0860. Stop-Loss 1.0910. Take-Profit 1.0800, 1.0700, 1.0600 Buy Stop 1.0955. Stop-Loss 1.0920. Take-Profit 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  3. TifiaFX
    NZD/USD: concerns over coronavirus weaken 12/02/2020 As soon as today at 01:00 (GMT) the RBNZ decision on the rate was published, the New Zealand dollar strengthened sharply. The New Zealand Reserve Bank seems to be beginning to show a tendency towards tighter monetary policy amid the release of data indicating an improvement in the country's economy and lower risks of a slowdown in the global economy due to coronavirus in China. A statement made after the meeting of the RBNZ indicates that the central bank considers the risks associated with the outbreak of coronavirus not serious enough to significantly affect its position on monetary policy. RBNZ forecasts suggest that if the negative consequences of a coronavirus outbreak on economic growth do not exceed expectations, the next step is likely to be not a decrease, but an increase in the interest rate. After the RBNZ meeting, the NZD / USD pair increased by 50 points, and at the beginning of today's European session, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6485, which is 85 points higher than the opening price today. The immediate goal in case of continued growth of NZD / USD is the resistance levels of 0.6525 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6535 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In case of their breakdown, NZD / USD will go towards the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of pair decline from the 0.8820 mark). At the same time, below the key resistance level of 0.6535, long-term negative dynamics prevail. A return into the zone below the level of 0.6450 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will cause a resumption of NZD / USD decline with targets at support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and Fibonacci level 0%), 0.6205 (September lows). Powell will continue his congressional speech Wednesday. It will begin at 15:00 (GMT). On Tuesday, he reiterated that "if a situation arises that will cause a significant reassessment of our forecasts, we will respond accordingly". If Powell speaks out more specifically regarding the need for a softer monetary policy by the Fed, the US dollar may fall under sales after its 7-day rise the day before. In this case, the NZD / USD pair will receive an additional impetus for further growth. Support Levels: 0.6465, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6378, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100 Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6525, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.6445. Stop-Loss 0.6485. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6378, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100 Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6445. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6525, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  4. TifiaFX
    AUD/USD: negative dynamics prevail 11/02/2020 At the start of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6710 mark, just below the intraday high of 0.6719 reached during the Asian session after the publication of positive macro statistics from Australia. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the volume of issued housing loans increased in December by + 4.4% (with a forecast of + 1.6%), and the volume of issued housing loans related to investment grew in December by + 2.8%. In total, in 2019, mortgage lending in Australia grew by + 14%, and this year the growth is likely to accelerate, some economists say. Such a development of events will attract the attention of the leaders of the Reserve Bank of Australia and make them reduce the tendency to further soften the policy of the bank. Nevertheless, most economists believe that the RBA will be forced to return to the issue of lowering rates this year, despite the risks of overheating the housing market in the country. "Forest fires and coronavirus will temporarily put pressure on growth in Australia in the short term. We are ready to continue easing monetary policy if it is necessary to support sustainable economic growth," said RBA managing director Philip Low last week. Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index rose Monday for the sixth consecutive session and, supported by strong US employment data and concerns over the spread of coronavirus, rose on Tuesday to a 4-month high of 98.80. The AUD / USD pair is trading below the nearest strong resistance levels of 0.6723 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6800 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), remaining in the area below the key resistance level 0.6885 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and maintaining negative dynamics. OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts are on the side of the sellers. Probably, the possible correctional growth of AUD / USD will be limited by the resistance levels of 0.6723, 0.6755, 0.6800. In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.6670 (2019 lows and a Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009). So far, the negative dynamics of AUD / USD, which speaks in favor of its sales, still prevails. On Tuesday and Wednesday, participants in financial markets will follow the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress (at 15:00 GMT). He is likely to once again mark the “good form” of the American economy, and most likely the US dollar will maintain positive dynamics this week. Support Levels: 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300 Resistance Levels: 0.6723, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6885, 0.6900, 0.6935 Trading Recommendations Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6725. Take-Profit 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300 Buy Stop 0.6725. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6885 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  5. TifiaFX
    DJIA: Current Situation 10/02/2020 Chinese President Xi Jinping last week assured US President Trump of China's intention to fulfill the obligations of a recently signed trade deal. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the rapid spread of the virus will inevitably affect the Chinese economy and may affect the US economy, although it’s too early to judge the strength and magnitude of this influence. This week (on Tuesday and Wednesday) Powell will speak in Congress as part of a statutory hearing. Probably, he will again touch upon the monetary policy of the Fed and the spread of coronavirus, which may cause increased volatility in world financial markets, including the US stock market. On Friday, US stock markets closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -0.9%, to 29102, the S&P 500 - by -0.5%, to 3327, and the Nasdaq 100 - by -0.5%, to 9401. Concerns over the spread of coronavirus in China nevertheless raise concerns about global growth. Fed officials call this an "unpredictable factor". Nevertheless, the positive mood of investors related to the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the USA and China last month helps to maintain the positive dynamics of world and US stock indices, despite the epidemic of coronavirus in China. Last week, the DJIA updated its absolute high near 59528.0, and at the beginning of today's European session, it is trading near 29070.0 mark. Above the short-term support levels of 28990.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 28770.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the purchases look safe. In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28899.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28770.0, 28165.0 (January lows), 27400.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). However, only a breakdown of the support level of 24150.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%) can break the DJIA bullish trend. Despite the corrective decline, the long-term positive dynamics of the DJIA remains, which makes its purchases preferable. Support Levels: 28990.0, 28770.0, 28165.0, 27400.0, 26220.0, 25270.0, 24600.0, 24150.0 Resistance Levels: 29528.0 Trading Scenarios Buy Stop 29530.0. Stop-Loss 28760.0. Take-Profit 30000.0 Sell Stop 28760.0. Stop-Loss 29175.0. Take-Profit 28165.0, 28000.0, 27400.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  6. TifiaFX
    USD/CAD: on the eve of the NFP publication 07/02/2020 Current Dynamics Today, the attention of market participants will be riveted to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of data from the US labor market. Strong data expected. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, in January, 160,000 new jobs were created, salaries increased by 0.3%, and unemployment remained at the level of multi-year lows of 3.5%. If the data is confirmed or is better than the forecast, then the dollar is likely to strengthen and US stock indices will rise. At the same time, you must be prepared for unexpected data that can cause increased volatility in the financial market. If the data on the labor market published today turn out to be weaker than the forecast, and previous reports will be revised downward, then the dollar may drop sharply. Also at the same time (at 13:30 GMT) Statistics Canada will present its monthly report on the labor market in the country. Unemployment is expected to be 5.6% in January, the same as in December, and the number of employed increased by 15,000 (against 27,300 in December). If the data turn out to be better than the previous values or forecast, then the Canadian dollar is likely to strengthen, including with respect to the USD. In any case, when data from the US and Canada labor markets are published, a surge in volatility is expected across the entire financial market. This will especially affect the USD / CAD pair, which grew in the first half of today's trading day, primarily due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Futures on the DXY dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is growing today for the 5th day in a row and is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 98.46, 125 points higher than the closing price at the end of last week. The dollar is strengthened by strong macro statistics coming from the United States, as well as the demand for it as a protective asset amid the spread of coronavirus in China. At the beginning of today's European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3310, 85 pips above its opening price earlier this week. So far, everything speaks in favor of further growth of USD / CAD. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the pair has reached the upper limit of the range located between the levels of 1.3345 (1.3380) and 1.3020 (1.3050). Near these resistance levels, if not a reversal, then rebound with a subsequent decrease is possible. A signal for sales may be a breakdown of the local support level 1.3265 and the short-term support level 1.3245 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Nevertheless, while USD / CAD is trading above the key support level of 1.3200 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long positions should be preferred. Support Levels: 1.3265, 1.3245, 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3120, 1.3050, 1.3020 Resistance Levels: 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3100. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930 Buy Stop 1.3105. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3190, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  7. TifiaFX
    Brent: negative dynamics prevail 06/02/2020 As a result of the sharp increase in tension in the Middle East after the assassination of Iranian General Suleymani as a result of a U.S. airstrike at a Baghdad airport, the price of Brent crude rose sharply earlier last month, reaching $ 71.95 per barrel. In the future, in the course of reducing the degree of tension in the Middle East, the price also began to decline sharply. The outbreak of coronavirus in China has become a strong negative driver for quotations of oil and other commodities. The price of Brent crude oil broke through a key support level of 63.60 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and an important support level of 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of rising prices from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the mark of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline. Investor sentiment improved slightly on Wednesday after media reports that a university in China had found a method for treating coronavirus, which was also reflected in quotes for oil and other commodities. The meeting of OPEC and its allies also supported prices. Leading oil producers may decide to further reduce their production to offset the decline in demand caused by the coronavirus. Nevertheless, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy announced on Wednesday an increase in oil reserves by 3.355 million barrels last week, higher than the forecast of +3.0 million barrels. U.S. oil production is still near record highs of 13,000 million barrels per day. At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude oil declines again after rising on Wednesday and is trading near 56.00. So far, a strong negative impulse prevails. Long positions are premature so far. The slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy, the second largest in the world, due to the threat of a large-scale epidemic of the virus and a possible decrease in oil demand from China will still negatively affect the prices of commodities, including oil. Support Levels: 54.23, 50.00 Resistance Levels: 56.90, 58.15, 59.20, 60.40, 62.00, 63.60, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60 Trading Recommendations Sell by market. Stop-Loss 57.10. Take-Profit 55.00, 54.00, 53.00, 50.00 Buy Stop 57.10. Stop-Loss 54.20. Take-Profit 58.15, 59.20, 60.40, 62.00, 63.60, 63.90 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  8. TifiaFX
    S&P 500: indices rise again after falling last week 05/02/2020 US stock indexes are actively recovering after falling last week. Investors' concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China have declined, and investors returned to assessing the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China, signed last month. Larry Kudlow, director of the U.S. Presidential National Economic Council, said on Tuesday that the impact of the spread of coronavirus is likely to delay, but not cancel, the support for the US economy expected from the first-phase trade agreement between the USA and China. According to Kudlow, in the longer term, the impact of a virus outbreak will be minimal. At the opening of today's European session, futures for major US stock indexes rose sharply. On Wednesday, the S&P500 rises for the third day in a row after falling last week and is trading at the beginning of the European session near 3325.0 mark, near the absolute record high reached in December at 3335.0. S&P500 maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3050.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3100.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts. Their upper border runs near 3370.0. This mark is likely to be the immediate goal of index growth. Today in the period from 13:15 to 15:00 (GMT) a block of important macro statistics for the United States will be published. Of most interest will probably be the ADP report on private sector employment. US private sector employment growth is expected in January by +156,000. This is lower than the December figure (+202,000 employees), however, it is also a strong indicator of a labor market, which also indicates the stability of the US economy, which continues to grow amid the risks of a slowdown in the global economy. Positive dynamics prevail, pushing indices to new records. Above the support levels 3276.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3250.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), long positions are preferred. Support Levels: 3276.0, 3250.0, 3180.0, 3100.0, 3050.0, 3025.0, 2955.0 Resistance Levels: 3335.0, 3370.0 Trading Recommendations Sell Stop 3270.0. Stop-Loss 3337.0. Targets 3250.0, 3180.0, 3100.0, 3050.0 Buy Stop 3337.0. Stop-Loss 3270.0. Goals 3350.0, 3370.0, 3400.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  9. TifiaFX
    NZD/USD: growth of quotations of commodity currencies may resume 04/02/2020 From October to December last year, the NZD / USD pair was in the upward correction period and reached an almost 8-month high near the 0.6755 mark at the end of December. However, then NZD / USD fell sharply amid the spread of coronavirus in China threatening to slow down the global economy. The decrease in NZD / USD in January amounted to almost 4%. Despite some easing of investors' concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and a resurgent rise in stock indices, commodity currencies, including NZD, are still under pressure. On Tuesday, NZD / USD makes an attempt to break the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart passing through the mark of 0.6465. Negative dynamics still prevail, and technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%), 0.6205 (September lows). Today, the volatility in the NZD / USD pair may again increase when data from a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT) will be published after 15:00 (GMT). The Dairy Price Index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out two weeks ago with a value of +1.7%. The increase in world prices for dairy products provides additional support to the New Zealand economy, increasing the level of foreign currency export earnings. Forecast for today: the Global Dairy Trade price index for dairy products will come out with a value of +0.9%, which is likely to also support the New Zealand dollar. In this case, a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6485 will be the first signal to resume long positions in the NZD / USD pair. A breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.6540 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global pair decline wave with level 0.8820). Investor concerns about coronavirus eased somewhat earlier this week, creating a favorable backdrop for renewed growth in global stock indices and commodity prices, as well as commodity currency quotes. Support Levels: 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100 Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.6440. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100 Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6440. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  10. TifiaFX
    AUD/USD: on the eve of the RBA meeting 03/02/2020 The threat of coronavirus spreading outside of China, threatening to grow into an epidemic, brought down global stock indices last week. The World Health Organization last Thursday declared an outbreak of coronavirus infection an emergency of international importance. The number of confirmed coronavirus infected in China over the weekend has grown to nearly 15,000, the number of victims is already 305. Given the size of China's GDP, as well as the possible consequences for other countries, the outbreak of the virus seems to be a significant enough reason for concern about the growth prospects of the world economy for the next few months. On Tuesday, the RB of Australia makes a decision on the interest rate (the decision on the rate will be published at 03:30 GMT). Probably, the RBA will not yet change its current monetary policy, keeping the rate at a record level of 0.75%. However, this decision will not provide tangible support to the Australian dollar. The risks to Australian economy and the implications for Australian commodity and tourism demand are likely to continue to put pressure on weak growth prospects. Thus, the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD are likely to remain under pressure with a tendency to further weaken and reduce, which will speak in favor of their sales. At the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6690 mark, 10 points above the intraday low of 0.6680. In case of breakdown of the support levels of 0.6680 and 0.6670 (2019 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009). The negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, making short positions on the pair more preferable. Support Levels: 0.6680, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300 Resistance Levels: 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900, 0.6935 Trading Recommendations Sell Stop 0.6675. Stop-Loss 0.6730. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260 Buy Stop 0.6730. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  11. TifiaFX
    XAU/USD: Coronavirus pushes gold quotes up 31/01/2020 The "first phase" trade agreement between the United States and China, signed two weeks ago, eased tensions in trade relations between the two countries and gave a new positive impetus to stock indices. However, other factors may adversely affect economic growth in 2020. A new negative factor of a global scale again threatens the global economy. This time, investor caution is fueled by fears about the spread of coronavirus in China. Representatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) have already expressed significant concern about the possibility of the spread of the virus outside of China. In this situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, is growing. A strong positive momentum remains, pushing gold quotes up. In case of breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1585.00 (April 2013 highs and Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00), the XAU / USD pair will go towards the upper border of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing near the mark of 1620.00. In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the short-term support level of 1569.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), XAU / USD will resume the decline with targets at the support levels of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%), 1456.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A further decline in XAU / USD is unlikely, and, in the current situation, long positions are preferred. Support Levels: 1569.00, 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00 Resistance Levels: 1585.00, 1600.00, 1620.00 Trading recommendations Sell Stop 1568.00. Stop-Loss 1586.00. Take-Profit 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00 Buy Stop 1586.00. Stop-Loss 1568.00. Take-Profit 1600.00, 1620.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  12. TifiaFX
    Brent: price drop is likely to continue 30/01/2020 Current Dynamics After the price of Brent crude oil soared earlier this month as a result of a sharp increase in tension in the Middle East and reached $71.95 a barrel, a sharp drop in oil prices began later. The driver of the "price hike south" was the spread of coronavirus in China, threatening to go into a pandemic. The number of cases in China exceeded 6,000, and more than 130 died. At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading at $58.60 per barrel. Information from the US Department of Energy put additional pressure on oil quotes. According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, Wednesday, crude oil inventories grew by 3.548 million barrels last week (forecast implied an increase of 482,000 barrels). A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers. The price of Brent crude oil broke through the key support level of 63.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline. A breakdown of the support level of 58.50 and a decrease into the area below the support level of 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%) will mean a break in the bull trend and the resumption of the global downtrend. In case of further decline, the immediate goal will be the support level of 50.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%). There is no convincing evidence that the dynamics of oil prices will change significantly in the near future. A further drop in commodity prices, including oil, is likely. Only a return to the zone above the resistance level of 63.90 will again make long positions relevant. Support Levels: 58.50, 56.90, 55.00 Resistance Levels: 60.40, 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60 Trading Recommendations Sell by market. Stop-Loss 59.50. Take-Profit 56.90, 55.00 Buy Stop 60.50. Stop-Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  13. TifiaFX
    GBP/USD: on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England 29/01/2020 On the eve of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, the pound remains positive, and the GBP / USD pair is trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 1.2835 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). The Bank of England will publish the decision on the rate on Thursday at 12:00 (GMT). It is widely expected that the Bank of England will maintain its current monetary policy unchanged. Also, many economists believe that the Bank of England in 2020 will also not change its policy amid a recovery in the UK economy. Many economists predict an acceleration of UK GDP growth from 1.0% in 2020 to 1.8% in 2021 due to planned fiscal stimulus measures and the expected growth in investment, which will be possible if a trade deal is concluded with the European Union before the end of this year. On Thursday, it is also worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). If he nevertheless favors a softer monetary policy, then the pound could drop sharply. In any case, the volatility in the pound quotes during this period of time can increase sharply. Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred. The breakdown of support levels 1.2995 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.2955 (January lows) will trigger a further decline in GBP / USD to the key support level of 1.2835. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce GBP / USD pair in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). On Wednesday, investors will be waiting for the publication of the Fed decision on the rate at 19:00 (GMT). The rate is likely to remain at the level of 1.75%, which is not to cause a strong reaction from the dollar. Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2835 Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800 Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  14. TifiaFX
    AUD/USD: commodity currencies are under pressure 28/01/2020 Earlier this week, the AUD / USD broke through the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart and continues to decline, trading at the beginning of today's European session near the level of 0.6745. The reluctance of investors to take risks due to the spreading coronavirus in China puts pressure on commodity prices, one of the largest consumers of which is China. According to Chinese authorities, on Monday the number of people infected with coronavirus exceeded 4,500, and the number of deaths reached 106. Investors take into account slowdown in China's GDP growth due to an outbreak of coronavirus. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar is also declining, losing about 4% since the start of the month against the US dollar. In case of further decrease in AUD / USD, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (2019 lows), 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009). On Wednesday (00:30 GMT) inflation data for Australia for the 4th quarter will be published. Most likely, the data will confirm that core inflation remains below the target level (it is expected that growth in consumer inflation in the 4th quarter was +0.6% and +1.7% in annual terms). If the data turn out to be even weaker than the forecast, then the pressure on the RBA to further soften its policy at the February 4 meeting will intensify. The RBA is also expected to lower forecasts for GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2019 and in the 1st quarter of 2020, which will also put pressure on the AUD. At the same time, the USD is strengthening, including due to the spread of the coronavirus and the fall of world stock indices. A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6740 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011. In the current situation, only short positions should be considered. You can return to AUD / USD purchases after the pair returns to the ascending channel on the daily chart, the lower border of which passes through the mark of 0.6820. Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300 Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938 Trading Recommendations Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300 Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  15. TifiaFX
    EUR/USD: Current Dynamics 27/01/2020 The number of infected people with coronavirus in China has already exceeded 2,700, and the number of deaths has reached 80. The situation threatens to get out of control, and traders began to take into account the inevitable slowdown in China's GDP growth, which causes a decrease in world stock indexes. Amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus and rising fears of a slowdown in the global economy, demand for safe haven assets (such as gold, yen) and the dollar are growing again. At the same time, the euro resumed falling against the dollar at the beginning of today's European session after the publication of disappointing macro data (at 09:00 GMT). According to the IFO, the business climate worsened in Germany in January. The current situation assessment indicator published by the CESifo research group came out with a value of 99.1, which is worse than the forecast of 99.4. The IFO Economic Expectations Index, which serves as an indicator of current conditions and expectations in the German business sector, came out with a value of 92.9, which is worse than the forecast of 95.0 and the previous value of 93.9. The slowdown in Germany's economic growth and the deterioration of sentiment in the country's business circles is a bearish factor for EUR. EUR / USD continues to trade in the zone below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.1064, 1.1082 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1105 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). However, the growth of EUR / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 1.1150. In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015). A breakdown of the local support level of 1.1015 (today's low) may trigger a deeper decline in EUR / USD. Below the key resistance level of 1.1150, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, and a decline to the zone below the support level of 1.1000 speaks in favor of short positions. Support Levels: 1.1025, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900 Resistance Levels: 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285 Trading Recommendations Sell Stop 1.1010. Stop-Loss 1.1040. Take-Profit 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900 Buy Stop 1.1040. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  16. TifiaFX
    NZD/USD: commodity demand falls 24/01/2020 The New Zealand dollar received support today at the beginning of the Asian trading session after the publication of consumer inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) in the country in the 4th quarter increased by +1.9% (after rising by +1.5% in the 3rd quarter, with the forecast of +1.8%). The NZD / USD rose in the first half of today's trading day, reaching an intraday high near 0.6628. Meanwhile, commodity prices continue to decline amid the spread of the deadly virus in China. While the NZD / USD is trading above the key support level of 0.6545 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), its long-term dynamics remains. A signal for resuming sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.6613 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart) with the target at the support level of 0.6598 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.6428 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and a further decline will indicate the resumption of the global downtrend NZD / USD and the relevance of short positions with long-term goals at support levels 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100. On the other hand, a breakdown of local resistance levels of 0.6635, 0.6665 could trigger an alternative growth scenario in the upward channel on the daily chart with targets at resistance levels of 0.6770 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of the pair decline from the level of 0.8820). Meanwhile, more active growth of the New Zealand dollar at the moment should not be expected, according to economists. Investors are gearing up for a slowdown in China, the largest consumer of commodities. Rising concerns about declining commodity demand will put pressure on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar. Support Levels: 0.6613, 0.6698, 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100 Resistance Levels: 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6640. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200 Buy Stop 0.6640. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  17. TifiaFX
    EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting 17/01/2020 Since the opening of today's trading day, the EUR / USD pair has been trading in a narrow range on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on rates. At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near 1.1090, below strong short-term resistance levels of 1.1108 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1115 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions. At the same time, the ECB leadership today may announce an increase in inflation expectations and reiterate that it is "closely monitoring the potential side effects" of negative interest rates on the economy. The ECB's decision on rates will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the press conference will begin today at 13:30 (GMT). A sharp increase in volatility is likely to occur during this period of time, especially if unexpected statements regarding the monetary policy of the bank are followed by ECB management. Negative interest rates are likely to continue for some time to come, but the ECB may revise them at some point. Any statements by the ECB management that may indicate the possibility of moving away from the bank’s extra-soft monetary policy towards tightening it will be regarded by market participants as a signal to resume purchases of the euro, which will also cause the EUR / USD pair to grow. In this case, after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015). A signal for the implementation of this scenario will be a growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.1115. The breakdown of the local support level of 1.1064 may provoke a deeper decline in EUR / USD. Support Levels: 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900 Resistance Levels: 1.1108, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285 Trading Recommendations Sell Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900 Buy Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  18. TifiaFX
    AUD/USD: the pair remains under pressure 22/01/2020 Last year, the RBA cut interest rates three times amid a trade conflict between the US and China and weak growth in the Australian economy. In December, the RBA left the key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. Now, labor market conditions, household consumption growth rates, and company investment are key to the February meeting of the RBA, after the US and China entered into a “first phase” trade agreement last week. RBA managing director Philip Lowe in November admitted the possibility of further stimulating the Australian economy after the rate drops below 0.25%. In the Australian economy, consumer demand is now declining and in recession. Personal consumption accounts for almost 60% of GDP, so the RBA always focuses on spending in stores. Without rapid growth in personal consumption, employment in the labor market will slow down, and the investment market will cool. On Wednesday, Westpac reported a decline in consumer confidence in the country. The consumer confidence index fell in January by -1.8% (against the forecast of -0.8% and after falling by -1.9% in December). The Australian dollar continued to decline after the publication of this index at the beginning of today's trading day. A day earlier, the Australian dollar was pressured by information about the outbreak of coronavirus in China. The Australian economy is expected to create +15,000 new jobs in December, while unemployment remains at 5.2%. Data from the Australian labor market will be released Thursday at 00:30 (GMT). Weak GDP growth, low personal consumption and weak retail sales reinforce expectations of further interest rate cuts at a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 4, which will put downward pressure on AUD. On Wednesday, AUD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and below the important resistance level of 0.6881 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, ЕМА144 on the daily chart). A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6828 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011. A signal for the development of an alternative scenario could be a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6850. However, the possible growth of AUD / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300 Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300 Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  19. TifiaFX
    USD/CAD: Current Dynamics 21/01/2020 In December, following a decision by the Bank of Canada not to change monetary policy, and amid a weakening US dollar, the USD / CAD pair fell sharply, breaking through the key support level of 1.3195 (ЕМА144 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart). The Bank of Canada leadership is looking positively at the state of the country's economy and labor market. Back in November, Stephen Poloz said that "the current monetary policy remains appropriate in this situation" and, in his opinion, it still "largely remains stimulating". The regular meeting of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy issues will be held on Wednesday, and the decision on the rate will be published at 15:00 (GMT). As expected, the Bank of Canada will not change the current interest rate, which is at the level of 1.75%, and will give a moderately positive assessment of the state of the Canadian economy. At 16:15, the bank’s press conference will begin, which can also cause sharp fluctuations in the Canadian dollar quotes if unexpected statements are made by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz. USD / CAD reached 1.2957 mark in January. Nevertheless, the breakdown of the support level of 1.2930 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which would indicate a break in the bull trend, has not occurred, so far, and the USD / CAD is growing again, breaking through the short-term resistance level 1.3052 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The immediate goal in case of continued growth of USD / CAD will be the resistance level 1.3096 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), and in case of its breakdown, the growth will accelerate to the key resistance level 1.3195. Growth into the zone above this resistance level will indicate a restoration of the bullish trend of USD / CAD. You can return to sales if USD / CAD falls into the zone below the support level of 1.3027. Below this level, short positions will again become preferable. Support Levels: 1.3052, 1.3027, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930 Resistance Levels: 1.3096, 1.3120, 1.3195, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3100. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930 Buy Stop 1.3105. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3190, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  20. TifiaFX
    GBP/USD: Current Dynamics After the publication of data from the retail sector in the UK and the USA last Friday, GBP / USD continues to decline today for the second day in a row. In the UK, retail sales in December fell by -0.6% in the country (v.s. a forecast of +0.7%), and in the United States, according to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, they grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Strong retail sales in the 4th quarter will have a positive impact on the growth rate of US GDP, economists say, expecting GDP growth in the 4th quarter at 2.5 - 2.6%. At the same time, weak macro data recently received from the UK reinforce expectations of a softening of the Bank of England policy at a meeting on January 30. In the USA today is a day off on the occasion of the celebration of the birthday of Martin L. King. Therefore, trading volumes during the american trading session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility in the "thin market". The volatility in the GBP / USD pair may again rise sharply tomorrow after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of the UK labor market data. It is likely that the data will indicate a slowdown in wage growth and that unemployment is no longer dropping, although it is close to the lows over the past few years. Meanwhile, the GBP / USD pair broke through the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and is trading below important resistance levels of 1.2995 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts). In case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2955, 1.2910 (local lows), a further decrease in GBP / USD is likely. Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred. Support Levels: 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800 Resistance Levels: 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.2945. Stop-Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800 Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop-Loss 1.2945. Take-Profit 1.2995, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  21. TifiaFX
    EUR/USD: the pair is again under pressure 17/01/2020 The weakening Euro and lower EUR / USD continued on Friday. On Thursday and Friday, the EUR / USD pair has broken important support levels of 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1122 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА144 on the daily chart) and continued to decline towards the support level 1.1109 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) . In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1109 and further decrease, the goal will be the local support level 1.1064. A deeper decline or resumption of growth will depend on the fundamental background. As follows from the protocols published on Thursday from the December meeting of the ECB, the bank's leaders promised not to raise the key interest rate until inflation reaches the target level (slightly less than 2%), which is unlikely in the coming months and, possibly, years. The executives also said that even with negative rates, bank returns will be on the positive side, noting that interest rates can be reduced even more if necessary. At the same time, previously published macro data showed that at the beginning of 2020, the US fundamental indicators supporting consumer spending (low unemployment and rising earnings) remain stable. According to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, retail sales in December grew by 0.3%. As you know, consumer spending is more than 2/3 of US GDP. Today, market participants will follow the publication at 15:00 (GMT) of the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January. It is expected that this indicator will be released in January with a value of 99.4 (against 99.3 in December). This is a high indicator, which indicates the growth of the economy and the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. The publication of the indicator is also likely to support the dollar. Below the key resistance level of 1.1155 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains and short positions are preferred. In an alternative scenario, a signal to resume purchases will be a growth into the zone above resistance levels 1.1122, 1.1138 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Support Levels: 1.1109, 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900 Resistance Levels: 1.1120, 1.1138, 1.1155, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285 Trading Recommendations Sell Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900 Buy Stop 1.1125. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1155, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  22. TifiaFX
    DJIA: positive fundamental background 16/01/2020 Despite the fact that the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China has largely been won back by markets, investors enthusiastically welcomed this event. US President Donald Trump called the deal a crucial and unprecedented step in relations with China, leading to "fair and mutually beneficial trade". Speaking to reporters, Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the signed agreement the best deal ever made between the United States and China. The United States agreed to lower duties on Chinese goods worth $ 120 billion to 7.5% and to cancel the previously planned introduction of new duties on imports from China. Meanwhile, as Trump had previously stated, the remaining fees will be used in working out the “second phase” agreement. If, in the course of fulfilling the obligations undertaken, one of the parties violates them, then the infringed party will be entitled to take “proportional measures of protection”, which, in essence, means the restoration of duties. So far, markets have ignored the likelihood of possible complications during the elaboration of the “second stage” of the trade agreement. As the Beige Book published last Wednesday, the U.S. economy continued to grow at a moderate pace in the last six weeks of 2019. “Expectations regarding short-term prospects remain moderately favorable in the country”, the Fed said. Thus, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further growth of US stock indices and the DJIA index as well. In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28855.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28420.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 27400.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 27100.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the key support levels of 27400.0, 27100.0, the long-term upward dynamics of the DJIA remains. Support Levels: 28855.0, 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0, 27100.0, 25945.0, 25050.0, 24600.0, 23970.0 Resistance Levels: 29180.0 Trading Scenarios Buy Stop 29205.0. Stop-Loss 28850.0. Take-Profit 29300.0, 30000.0 Sell Stop 28850.0. Stop-Loss 29205.0. Take-Profit 28420.0, 28000.0, 27400.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  23. TifiaFX
    GBP/USD: the pound remains under pressure from disappointing macro data 15/01/2020 After the release of fresh UK macro data (at 09:30 GMT), GBP / USD continued to decline on Wednesday, trading at the moment near the 1.2995 mark and the EMA50 support level on the daily chart. The dynamics of the pound, which has already fallen by about 2% since the beginning of the year, is determined by weak macro data coming from the UK and the continuing uncertainty about Brexit. The UK should leave the EU on January 31, although access to the EU markets in their current form will remain at least until the end of this year, while the terms of a new agreement are being worked out. However, weak economic data suggests that uncertainty about Brexit harms the economy more than many observers expected. Following comments by Bank of England management and disappointing macro data this week, market participants sharply increased the likelihood of policy easing at a Bank of England meeting on January 30. If the bank really lowers the rate (as predicted by some economists, by 0.25%), then the drop in the pound in the absence of progress on Brexit is likely to accelerate. Now the attention of market participants has shifted to the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The signing process will begin at 16:00 (GMT). The White House will evaluate the progress made and, possibly, reduce duties on goods from China again, but not earlier than 10 months after the signing of the trade agreement planned for today. Existing duties on Chinese imports will remain in effect until the end of the US presidential election in November 2020. Despite today's decline in the pound, above the key support level of 1.2800 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains. If GBP / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP/USD reduce in the wave that started in July 2014, near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800 Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800 Buy Stop 1.3055. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  24. TifiaFX
    S&P 500: need new drivers to continue the rally 14/01/2020 The risks of escalating the conflict between the US and Iran have declined. Investors are waiting for the signing of the “first phase” of a trade agreement between the US and China on Wednesday. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. The strongest negative factor and risks holding back the growth of the global economy seem to be starting to decline. At the same time, it should be noted that the signing of this trade agreement is already mainly taken into account in prices. Therefore, to continue the rally in the stock market, additional drivers are needed. On Tuesday, the volatility of the dollar and US stock indexes may rise at 13:30 (GMT), when the latest data on consumer inflation in the US will be published. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which is a key indicator for measuring inflation and changing consumer preferences, is expected to increase +0.2% in December (as it did in the previous two months). If the data for December is weaker than the forecast, then the dollar will most likely respond with a short-term, but strong decline, and stock indices are likely to rise. According to the latest data from the US Department of Labor published on Friday, private sector wages rose 2.9% in December compared with the same period last year. This is the weakest growth since July 2018, which, according to investors, does not raise concerns about rising inflation. So, the Fed will not raise interest rates to curb inflation. This is a positive fact for buyers in the stock market. The S&P 500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3010.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3068.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0). Long positions are preferred. In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the short-term support level 3255.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the correctional decline of S&P 500 can continue to the support levels 3196.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 3168.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). However, only a breakdown of support levels of 3010.0 and 2926.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will increase the risks of the bullish trend S&P 500 breaking. Support Levels: 3255.0, 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0 Resistance Levels: 3294.0, 3300.0 Trading Recommendations Sell Stop 3254.0. Stop-Loss 3296.0. Goals 3196.0, 3168.0, 3100.0, 3068.0, 3010.0, 2926.0 Buy Stop 3296.0. Stop-Loss 3254.0. Goals 3300.0, 3350.0, 3400.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
  25. TifiaFX
    GBP/USD: the pair still has positive dynamics Current dynamics 13/01/2020 Pound and GBP / USD are falling at the beginning of the new week. Last Thursday, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said the Monetary Policy Committee was ready to take action if the weakness of the economy continued. At the same time, member of the committee, Sylvanas Tenreiro, said on Friday that further stimulation of the British economy is possible in the "coming months". Another member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Gertyan Wlige, also spoke in the same tone in an interview with the Financial Times on Monday, saying he would vote in January to lower interest rates if there are no signs of an improvement in the economy. Following the publication of fresh UK macro data at the beginning of today's European session, the pound accelerated its decline. According to the data presented, production in the UK manufacturing sector decreased by -1.7% in November (-2% in annual terms with a forecast of -1.7%), and overall industrial production decreased by -1.2% in November ( -1.6% in annual terms). The data turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts of economists. Data continues to show the extremely negative impact of the Brexit process on the British economy. After the publication of macro data, the GBP / USD pair fell to 1.2970, which is 88 points below the closing price last Friday. If GBP / USD continues to decline, the goals will be the support levels of 1.2910 (December lows), 1.2800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). So far (and above the key support level of 1.2800), medium-term positive dynamics of GBP / USD remains. The return of GBP / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.3090 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will indicate the restoration of positive dynamics. In this case, the growth will continue towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD reduce in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). A breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3510 will mark targets at resistance levels of 1.3960 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.4350 (highs of January and April 2018), 1.4580 (Fibonacci level of 50%). Growth above the level of 1.4580 will mean the final break of the bearish trend. At the same time, the dollar is likely to retain its position in the current conditions. Investors are now excitedly waiting for the first-phase trade agreement between the US and China on January 15. The parties also intend to continue negotiations on a broader economic cooperation and agreed to hold negotiations twice a year with the aim of promoting economic reforms and resolving disputes. Such a development of events is also likely to help maintain demand for US assets and the dollar. Support Levels: 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2800 Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3050, 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.2960. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2800 Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2960. Take-Profit 1.3090, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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