Jump to content

Exchange Blog Cryptocurrency Blog


All Pips



DMT Advertisement Details

TifiaFX

Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    621

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

 Content Type 

Everything posted by TifiaFX

  1. TifiaFX
    EUR/USD: on the eve of important events 05/07/2017 Current dynamics This week, investors will closely monitor the publication of a number of important macroeconomic data. In addition to waiting for news on the course of the two-day G-20 summit that will begin in Hamburg on Friday, market participants will also focus on the minutes of the meeting of the central banks of the United States and the Eurozone to determine the prospects for monetary policy. The minutes of the meetings will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 (GMT) (US Federal Reserve) and Thursday (11:30 GMT) (ECB). Today, there are new evidence of strengthening the economy of the Eurozone. So, in May, retail sales grew by 0.4% in the Eurozone (the forecast was + 0.3% and + 0.1% in April). The composite index of supply managers (PMI) in the services sector of the Eurozone increased to 55.4 in June (against the forecast of 54.7), the same index for the manufacturing sector increased to 56.3 in June (the forecast was 55.7). Values ​​above 50 indicate an increase in activity. Similar indices rose in June also in countries with leading economies of the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy). This was reported today by the Statistics Agency of the Eurozone in conjunction with Markit Economics. Nevertheless, the acceleration of economic growth has not yet led to a steady acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone, the target level of which is just below 2.0%. The growth of wages also remains weak. As ECB representative Peter Prat said yesterday during his speech in Rome, "our (ECB) task has not been fulfilled yet. We need to maintain patience and perseverance. We need to be patient, because it takes more time for inflation to be surely reflected in the data. " The euro almost did not react to the publication of positive data. The euro is falling against the dollar, as are other major currencies. And the strengthening of the dollar is observed for the third consecutive session, and in the pair EUR / USD - the fourth trading session. The dollar continues to recover in the foreign exchange market on the eve of today's publication of the protocol since the last meeting of the Fed and on Friday - data from the US labor market for June. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels The fourth day of the EUR / USD pair is declining. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions. The pair EUR / USD broke through the short-term support level 1.1330 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The target of further decline will be support levels 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.8% of corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from 1.3900 level), 1.1250 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart). The positive dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is generally maintained, while the pair is above the support level of 1.1210 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of breakdown of support level 1.1210, the pair EUR / USD decline will accelerate with the target at support level 1.1120 (bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart and June lows). The breakdown of the key support level 1.0950 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will cancel the upward trend of the EUR / USD pair. Support levels: 1.1285, 1.1250, 1.1210, 1.1120, 1.0950 Levels of resistance: 1.1330, 1.1350, 1.1440, 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1785 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1360. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1280, 1.1215, 1.1170, 1.1140 Buy Stop 1.1360. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1785 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  2. TifiaFX
    GBP/USD: The dollar is rising again 04/07/2017 Overview and dynamics According to data provided by Markit today, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK construction sector fell in June (54.8 against 56.0 in May and 55 according to the forecast). Nevertheless, the pound reacted rather sluggishly to this data. In June, there is a weakening of the growth momentum in the UK construction sector, according to Markit, however, the PMI index remains above the level of 50, indicating an increase in activity. The slowdown in activity is generally observed in the UK economy (due to the "renewal of the rejection of risk", as stated in the report of Markit) amid concerns about economic and political uncertainties in the country. This is the lowest level of optimism about the prospects for the UK economy since December 2016. This Markit report goes against the statement of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, made during his speech at the forum of the European Central Bank in Portugal at the end of June. Mark Carney said that "a partial waiver of incentive measures is likely to be necessary, since the Bank of England will no longer have to compromise, and the decision-making process will enter the normal course". Now market participants will wait for the meeting of the Bank of England in August, and it is not excluded, according to Mark Carney's statement, that the rate will be increased by 0.25%. Expectations of this development support the buyers of the pound. This week, the markets will study the data on industrial production and foreign trade of Great Britain (for May), which will be released on Friday, to understand how the growth in production in the country meets the expectations of economists. Today in the US, a day off (Independence Day), low trading volumes and activity of traders will continue until tomorrow, when Asia opens. Nevertheless, the dollar is now increasing its positive dynamics after yesterday's growth amid strong production data. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector rose to 57.8, the highest level since August 2014. Now, market participants will closely monitor the publication on Wednesday (18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Fed and the US labor market data for June, which are published on Friday 12:30 (GMT). It is expected that the Fed will confirm the continuation of tightening of monetary policy. The probability of another rate increase in 2017 is estimated by investors at 62%, according to the CME Group. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels Nevertheless, the pair GBP / USD remains positive, trading above the short-term 1.2885 (EMA200 on 1-hour), 1.2830 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart) and medium-term 1.2815 (EMA200 on the daily chart) support levels. The GBP / USD pair since early 2017 continues to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart. If the positive pound dynamics continues, then the GBP / USD pair will continue to rise with the targets of 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3100, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and The upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart). Through the level of 1.3210 also passes the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart. Positive dynamics in the pair GBP / USD so far remains. Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions. An alternative scenario is to reduce the pair GBP / USD to support level 1.2815. In the case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2735 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate towards targets near the 1.2550 level (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 1.2365, 1.2110. Support levels: 1.2885, 1.2830, 1.2815, 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110 Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2970. Take-Profit 1.2885, 1.2820, 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485 Buy Stop 1.2970. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  3. TifiaFX
    AUD/USD: RBA decision on the rate 03/07/2017 Current dynamics Tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT), the RB of Australia publishes an interest rate decision. It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.5%. The growing Australian dollar is not profitable for the recovery of the Australian economy, whose GDP growth rates in the first quarter have already slowed. Last week was marked by the fact that representatives of the Bank of England, Bank of Canada and the ECB signaled a tendency to tighten monetary and credit policy. However, the RBA is unlikely to follow in the footsteps of the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the ECB. And yet, even a slight hint of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe on the positive state of the Australian labor market and the Australian economy could trigger the growth of the Australian dollar. In this case, amid weakening expectations of an increase in the rate from the Fed, the pair AUD / USD could rush to the level of 0.8000. Conversely, the soft tone of the RBA's accompanying statement will help to weaken the AUD and lower the AUD / USD. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels The AUD / USD pair remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly charts are on the buyers’ side. However, it's worth noting that on the 1-hour, 4-hour chart, the OsMA and Stochastics indicators went to the sellers' line, signaling the beginning of a downward correction. The correction targets are support levels of 0.7625 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7560 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the level of 0.7560, further decrease to the key support level of 0.7525 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) is possible. The targets in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline of the pair from July 2014, the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830), 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 (November and May lows). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7330 will call into question the uptrend of the pair AUD / USD. If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, after its return to the zone above the level of 0.7690 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart), its growth will continue with the targets 0.7710, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.8000 (EMA200 and the upper line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). Support levels: 0.7625, 0.7560, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 Resistance levels: 0.7690, 0.7710, 0.7760 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7680. Take-Profit: 0.7625, 0.7560, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420 Buy Stop 0.7680. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7690, 0.7710, 0.7760, 0.8000 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  4. TifiaFX
    Brent: prices are recovering 30/06/2017 Current dynamics Oil prices continue to recover. The rise of the last days has become the longest since April. The price of Brent crude is growing for the seventh consecutive session. Prices received additional support from data on the reduction of oil production in the US last week by 100,000 barrels per day. By the beginning of today's European session, August futures for WTI crude oil on the NYMEX were trading at $ 45.21 per barrel, with an increase of $ 0.28, while Brent crude futures gained 0.63% to $ 47.72 per barrel. Prices for these types of oil this week rose by more than 5%. The spot price for Brent crude is approaching $ 48.00 per barrel at the beginning of the European session. Also, the growth of oil prices contributes to the weakening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. The probability that in December the Fed can raise the rate by another 0.25% goes into the background. Investors' attention this week was focused on the statements of the leaders of several of the world's largest central banks (Europe, Great Britain, Canada) about the possibility of an early tightening of monetary policy in these countries, which led to the growth of currencies of these countries against the US dollar. Nevertheless, the fundamental factors for oil prices remain rather negative. Excessive supply in the market can grow on the background of increased oil production in Libya and Nigeria. The number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by 11 units to 758 units, which was the 23rd consecutive week of the increase. Excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Investors are still not sure about the stabilization of oil prices. If the US again grows oil production, then pessimism can again return to the oil market. Despite the current price increase, a negative impulse prevails in the oil market. Today (17:00 GMT) publishes a weekly report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices. At the moment, the number of active drilling platforms in the US is 758. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels Last week, the price of Brent oil broke the lower border of the rising channel weekly chart near the level of 47.70 and develops a downward trend within the falling channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the level of 43.50 (November minima). The price is below the key resistance level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50.0%) . Corrective growth may continue to the resistance level of 48.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), from which the price may again return to a downtrend. On the monthly and weekly charts, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators remain on the sellers’ side. In the event of breakdown of support levels of 43.50 (November lows), 41.70 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), the price of Brent crude will finally return to a downtrend. Return to consideration of long positions is possible only if the price returns to the zone above the short-term local resistance level of 48.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). The oil market is dominated by negative sentiment, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline. Support levels: 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.55, 43.50, 41.70 Levels of resistance: 48.65, 50.00, 50.70 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 47.30. Stop-Loss 48.30. Take-Profit 47.00, 46.20, 45.50, 44.55, 43.50, 41.70 Buy Stop 46.10. Stop-Loss 44.90. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  5. TifiaFX
    S&P500: investors remain optimistic 29/06/2017 Overview and dynamics American stock indexes retain a positive trend against the backdrop of sales of government bonds. The yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, rose on Wednesday to 2.223% from 2.198% on Tuesday. Investors remain confident that US economic growth is strong enough. At the same time, there were also speculations that weak inflation in the US would force the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates. The index of Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday showed the most significant growth since November and increased by 87.79 points (by 1.4%) to 6234.41 points. Growth in the price of shares of technology and financial companies contribute to the growth of US stock indices. Shares in the technology sector in the S & P500 this year increased by almost 19%, and on Wednesday again showed the leading dynamics, rising by 1.3%. The financial sector in the S & P500 grew by 1.6% yesterday. The index itself S & P500 gained 0.9%, rising above the mark of 2440.0. Newly rising oil prices also contribute to the growth of oil and gas stocks in the S & P500 index. Despite the release of data that recorded an increase in US oil inventories in the last week, Brent crude futures rose 0.9% to $ 47.95 per barrel. If Donald Trump can keep his promise and reduce corporate taxes, this will further promote the growth of US indices. Thus, there is every reason to assume that the positive dynamics of US stock indices will continue, probably even before the end of the year, when the Fed again can raise the interest rate. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Technical analysis The index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the daily, weekly charts. At the beginning of today's European session, the index trades above the short-term support level of 2435.0 (EMA50 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In June, the index updated the absolute maximum near the mark of 2453.0. Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts turned to short positions. A downward correction is likely with the immediate goals of 2435.0, 2421.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Only the breakdown of the support level at 2395.0 (the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart and the highs of February and April) can cause a deeper correction to the level of 2355.0 (May lows). The breakdown of the support level of 2305.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) will cancel the bullish trend of the index. Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S & P500 index remains. After the breakdown of the resistance level of 2453.0 (June highs), the growth of the index will resume. Support levels: 2435.0, 2421.0, 2405.0, 2395.0, 2355.0, 2305.0 Resistance levels: 2453.0 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 2405.0. Stop-Loss 2417.0. Objectives 2388.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2305.0, 2280.0 Buy Stop 2417.0. Stop-Loss 2405.0. Objectives 2450.0, 2500.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  6. TifiaFX
    EuroStoxx50: European stock indexes are down 28/06/2017 Current dynamics Statements made by ECB President Mario Draghi on Tuesday at a conference in Portugal provoked a sharp rise in the euro and a fall in European stock indices. Mario Draghi said that "all the signs now point to the strengthening and expansion of the basis for the recovery of the Eurozone economy." Draghi spoke very cautiously about the ECB's monetary policy, saying that "it is necessary to reasonably approach the adjustment of the parameters of our policy in response to the improvement of the economic situation in order to ensure the combination of our incentives with the restoration of the economy against the background of continuing uncertainties." At the same time, Draghi repeated that "it is necessary to persevere in carrying out our monetary and credit policy. Any changes in its direction should occur gradually and only if the justification for improving the dynamics seems to be quite reliable, "and" interest rates should be low so that the growth rate can recover ". Recall that the ECB's key rate (on deposits for commercial banks) has remained negative since June 2014. And, nevertheless, Draghi's speech was perceived by market participants as a hint at the likelihood of curtailing the incentive program in the Eurozone in the near future. Now, many market participants expect that the ECB will begin to close the quantitative easing program in January 2018, and after the completion of the curtailment of the QE program, the ECB will gradually raise deposit rates and refinancing rates. The euro showed the strongest growth for the year yesterday, while the prices of Eurozone bonds and most European stocks fell. At the same time, the yield of government bonds of countries such as Germany, France and Italy has risen sharply. EuroSTOXX50 continues to decline today, losing about 1.4% during two incomplete days and trading at the beginning of the European trading session near the 3510.0 mark. If the ECB really starts to curtail the QE program in the Eurozone, the euro will continue to strengthen, and the European stock indexes decline. Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on the speeches of the heads of central banks of Great Britain, Japan, Canada and the Eurozone, which will begin at 13:30 (GMT). In this period of time, a surge in volatility is expected in the foreign exchange market, including world stock markets. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels The EuroStoxx50 index broke yesterday the support level of 3542.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and remains under pressure, decreasing in the descending channel on the daily chart. In case of breakdown of the support level of 3495.0 (June lows and April highs observed on the eve of the presidential elections in France), the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to decline. The reduction targets will be the support levels 3420.0 (EMA144 and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), 3380.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline wave since April 2015 and from the level of 3840.0). Only in case of return to the zone above the level of 3542.0 can we speak about restoring the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index. In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 3610.0 (June highs), the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume within the uplink on a weekly chart, the upper limit of which is just near the Fibonacci level of 100% (the beginning of the decline wave since April 2015 and the level of 3840.0). Support levels: 3495.0, 3420.0, 3380.0 Resistance levels: 3542.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 3490.0. Stop-Loss 3525.0. Take-Profit 3420.0, 3400.0, 3380.0 Buy Stop 3525.0. Stop-Loss 3490.0. Take-Profit 3542.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  7. TifiaFX
    XAU/USD: the dollar drops before the performance Janet Jellen 27/06/2017 Current dynamics With the opening of today's trading day, and especially at the beginning of the European session, the dollar is falling in the foreign exchange market. Published yesterday, data from the US Department of Commerce showed a reduction in orders for durable goods in May by 1.1% compared to the previous month, which was the strongest decline in six months. Demand for durable goods in the US in May fell for the second consecutive month. Other macro data from the US also come out with weaker indicators. So, published on Friday, indicators of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in the US declined in June. The preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector in June fell to 52.1 against 52.7 in May, reaching a 9-month low. The preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US service sector fell to a 3-month low, reaching 53 versus 53.6 in May. The decline in macroeconomic indicators and the low level of inflation in the US can not but worry the Fed leaders. Previously, the Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate to a range of 1% -1.25%, saying it expects another rate hike this year. However, market participants do not believe that the Fed can really proceed with further tightening of monetary policy amid weak data on inflation in the US. "The US Federal Open Market Committee can refrain from actions and analyze the development of the macroeconomic situation in the coming quarters", said Fed President St. Louis James Bullard on Friday. Today, market participants will wait for the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, which will start at 5:00 pm (GMT). If Janet Yellen again signals about the Fed's inclination to tighten monetary policy, confirming its view that slowing inflation is a temporary phenomenon, then the dollar will quickly regain its positions in the foreign exchange market. According to the CME Group, futures for interest rates by the Fed indicate that the probability of another increase in the Fed's rates this year is about 50%. Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. At the same time, prices for precious metals, denominated in US currency, are declining. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels Meanwhile, the price of gold is growing with the opening of today's trading day. The pair XAU / USD pushed back from the support level of 1245.00 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart), however, its growth stopped at the short-term resistance level of 1253.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The pair XAU / USD is in the descending channel on the 4-hour chart. More seriously to the recovery of the upward movement of the pair XAU / USD can be attributed only after its consolidation above the resistance level 1257.00 (EMA200, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart). If the trend of strengthening the dollar will gain momentum, then the price of gold will continue to decline gradually. The return of the pair XAU / USD into the zone below the key support level of 1245.00 will strengthen its negative dynamics. The breakdown of the support level of 1220.00 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend. Support levels: 1248.00, 1245.00, 1236.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00 Resistance levels: 1253.00, 1257.00, 1260.00, 1277.00, 1295.00, 1305.00 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 1249.00. Stop-Loss 1254.00. Take-Profit 1245.00, 1236.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00 Buy Stop 1254.00. Stop-Loss 1249.00. Take-Profit 1257.00, 1260.00, 1277.00, 1295.00, 1305.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  8. TifiaFX
    EuroStoxx50: stock indexes are growing today 26/06/2017 Current dynamics Today, global stock indexes are growing. The stabilization of oil prices renders support to the stock market. In recent days, there has been a sharp drop in energy prices. The price of WTI oil last week fell by more than 20% from the February high. Fears of investors regarding the further decline in prices remain against the background of an overabundance of oil supply in the world. Despite OPEC measures to limit production, world oil reserves in the world remain at high levels. A sharp fall in oil prices led to a decline in key indices. The last three days the price of oil is recovering. Oil Brent went up today by 1.4% to 46.20 dollars per barrel. The sub-index of the oil and gas sector StoxxEurope 600 rose by 0.9%. Other major European stock indices (CAC40, DAX30, EuroSTOXX50) are also growing today. The growth of European indices is also promoted by the growth of shares of European banks after on Sunday the authorities of Italy announced that they are ready to spend 17 billion euros in the process of liquidation of two regional creditors. EuroSTOXX50 grew today by 0.7% in the first three hours since the beginning of the European trading session to the level of 3575.0. Positive macro data, received from Germany at the beginning of the European trading session, also contributed to the growth of the indexes DAX30, EuroSTOXX50. The index of economic expectations in Germany in June was 106.8 (forecast was 106.4), the German business sentiment index in June was 115.1 (forecast was 114.4), the current conditions in Germany in June 124.1 (forecast Was 123.3). Now investors are waiting for data from the Eurozone on inflation, which will be published later on Friday. Annual inflation in June is expected to slow in Italy, Spain, France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole to 1.2% from 1.4% in May, reaching its lowest level in 2017. If the forecast is justified, then the ECB's predilection for the reduction of the QE program is expected to decline even more. As you know, in early June, the ECB kept its benchmark interest rate at 0%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys up European assets worth 60 billion euros, also remained unchanged. The ECB Governing Council stated that the curtailment of the QE program has not yet been planned and is even ready to increase the volume of the quantitative easing program if necessary. And this is a positive factor for the European stock market. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels And yet, despite today's growth, the EuroStoxx50 index remains under pressure, gradually decreasing in the descending channel on the daily chart. Only in case of breakdown of resistance levels 3590.0 (the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart), 3610.0 (June highs) can we speak about restoring the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index and its further growth. The reverse scenario is connected with the breakdown of the support level 3542.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the further decrease of the EuroStoxx50 index with the immediate target at the support level of 3495.0 (the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart and the April highs observed on the eve of the presidential election in France). And at the same time, the medium-term positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index remains, while the index is above the key support level of 33.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of growth since June 2016). In case of breakdown of the level 3610.0, the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume within the uplink on a weekly chart. At least, the ECB's tendency to continue the extra soft monetary policy promotes this. Support levels: 3542.0, 3495.0, 3380.0 Resistance levels: 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 3540.0 Stop-Loss 3580.0. Take-Profit 3510.0, 3495.0, 3435.0, 3380.0 Buy Stop 3580.0. Stop-Loss 3540.0. Take-Profit 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  9. TifiaFX
    DJIA: investors are pausing 23/06/2017 Current dynamics After the active growth and the achievement earlier this week of new one-month highs, the main US stock indexes suspended growth. The DJIA index is down for the fourth consecutive day, however, since the opening of today's trading day is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 21400.00. It seems that investors took a pause before the publication of fresh macro data on the US economy. At 13:45 and 14:00 (GMT) will be published indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and services sector (PMI business activity from Markit Economics) in the US for June, as well as a report on the sale of new homes in the US in May . The PMI index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the US economy. The indicator, exceeding the mark of 50, in general is a positive factor for US stock indices. The expected growth in indicators will support the dollar and stock indexes. At 18:15 (GMT), the speech of FOMC member Jerome Powell will begin. From it, investors will want to hear information about the prospects for inflation and interest rates in the US. If Powell, like the other leaders of the Fed this week, speaks in favor of a softer scenario of raising rates in the US, this will support American indices. American stock indexes rose on the basis of the current month, which ends next week. Macro statistics coming out across the US are generally quite positive to have a positive impact on US stock markets. Their positive dynamics are still being preserved. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels On Tuesday, DJIA exceeded its recent annual highs and reached a new absolute maximum near the mark of 21538.0. Nevertheless, subsequently the DJIA index decreased and today at the beginning of the European session is traded at the short-term support level of 21380.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart). Here, the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the 4-hour chart. The current level is quite strong, and about the arrival of today positive macro data from the US DJIA index can rebound from this level of 21380.0 and resume growth. At the same time, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions, signaling a possible continuation of the downward correction. There may be a correction decrease to the level of 21117.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20900.0). If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may continue to support levels of 20500.0 (the May lows and EMA144 on the daily chart), 20360.0, 20158.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, December highs and Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to wave growth from the level 15660.0 after the recovery in February this year to a collapse in the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21538.0). The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 20158.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend. Support levels: 21380.0, 21170.0, 20900.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 20158.0, 19300.0 Resistance levels: 21538.0, 22000.0 Trading Scenarios Buy Stop 21460.0. Stop-Loss 21310.0. Take-Profit 21538.0, 22000.0 Sell ​​Stop 21310.0. Stop-Loss 21460.0. Take-Profit 21170.0, 20900.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 20158.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  10. TifiaFX
    Brent: the reduction of stocks in the US did not change the mood of investors 22/06/2017 Current dynamics According to a weekly report released yesterday by the US Department of Energy, US oil inventories fell by 2.451 million barrels last week (the forecast was expected to reduce inventories by 2.1 million barrels). Immediately after the publication of the Ministry of Energy data, oil prices went up, however, for a short time. Growth was unstable, and in the next three hours the price for Brent crude oil fell by $ 1.7 to $ 44.7 per barrel. WTI futures on NYMEX traded yesterday with a decline of about 2.4%. Contracts for Brent crude fell by 2.63% to 44.81 dollars per barrel. This behavior of the price can only be explained by one thing: investors do not believe that OPEC's efforts will help restore the balance in the oil market and strengthen prices. Moreover, the countries of the cartel began to sell oil from their own storage facilities, while still cutting production. The increase in production in Nigeria and Libya, part of OPEC, but exempt from the reduction obligations, weakens the hopes for the restoration of oil prices. The US has been very successful in this situation, which continues to increase oil production, filling the vacant niche in the oil market. Oil production in the US last week increased again, by 20,000 barrels per day, more than 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015. The number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase. Excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by about 28%, completely losing the positions won after the conclusion of the OPEC deal in late 2016. Today, there is a slight recovery in the price of oil after a non-stop three-day decline. Nevertheless, the oil market is dominated by a strong negative momentum. The oil market seems to be shifting again into a bearish phase. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels On a weekly chart, the Brent oil price broke the lower border of the rising channel near the level of 47.50 and develops a downward trend. On the daily chart, the price came very close to the lower boundary of the descending channel, passing near the mark of 44.65. Today, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts have turned to long positions. However, this indicates for the time being a short-term upward correction. On daily and weekly charts, indicators remain on the side of sellers. Negative dynamics is growing at an accelerated pace. The price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50.0%). There are two remaining milestones left - support levels of 43.50 (November lows), 41.70 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), the breakdown of which will finally return prices for Brent crude oil in a downtrend. In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled. Return to consideration of long positions is possible only if the price returns above the short-term local resistance level of 47.25 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the level of 47.50 (the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). The oil market is dominated by negative sentiment, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline. Support levels: 44.65, 43.50, 41.70 Resistance levels: 45.50, 46.20, 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 44.90. Stop-Loss Section 46.10. Take-Profit 44.65, 43.50, 41.70 Buy Stop 46.10. Stop-Loss 44.90. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  11. TifiaFX
    GBP/USD: it's too early to think about raising rates 21/06/2017 Current dynamics As you know, last week the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 0.25%; however, it surprised the market participants. Three of the eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to tighten monetary policy, citing signs of accelerating inflation in the UK. This information caused a sharp reaction of the markets. The GBP / USD pair strengthened in the moment by 100 points, however, subsequently the pound declined; The Bank of England did not take any measures in either direction. Nevertheless, the pound continues to remain under pressure in the foreign exchange market amid political uncertainty. Conservatives failed to achieve an absolute majority in the British parliament, and talks between British Prime Minister Therese May on the formation of a coalition with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist party have reached a deadlock. After the June 8 elections, the pair GBP / USD fell by about 350 points. And the pressure on the pair seems to be mounting. Yesterday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that it is still too early to think about raising rates in the UK, which further lowered the expectations of British currency buyers for its growth. As shown by the data published last week, real wages in May decreased by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. Consumer spending is one of the important components of GDP growth in the UK, and their decline adversely affects the growth of the British economy. Today (at 10:30 GMT) the Queen of Great Britain is expected to speak, at 11:00 - Andrew Haldane, Executive Director for Monetary and Credit Analysis and Statistics of the Bank of England, as well as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and on Friday (18:00 GMT) - member of the Committee for Monetary Policy of the Bank of England Christine Forbes. It is likely that key representatives of the Bank of England will also express their opinion in the spirit of their boss Mark Carney about the prematureness of raising rates in the UK, which will further weaken the position of the pound. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels After the parliamentary elections in Great Britain on June 8, the GBP / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 1.2800 (EMA200 on day and 4-hour charts), 1.2715 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart) and develops a downward trend. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit. In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2430 (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), the GBP / USD pair will go to the support levels of 1.2370, 1.2110, 1.2000 (the minimums of the global wave of the GBP / USD decline, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Negative dynamics in the pair GBP / USD prevails. The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2800 with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement correction from 1.7200 level), 1.3300 (upper Border of the rising channel on the daily chart). Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2110 Resistance levels: 1.2640, 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2950, ​​1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 1.2580. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110 Buy Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, ​​1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  12. TifiaFX
    XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper amid plans of the Fed 20/06/2017 Current dynamics After last Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, precious metals continued to go down in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60, to the level of 88.75 on Monday. The American Central Bank made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, and also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year. According to the CME Group, futures on interest rates by the Fed show that the probability of another increase in Fed rates this year is about 47% (against 41% last week). Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. Higher interest rates also lead to the sale of precious metals, which do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing. President of the Fed-New York William Dudley said on Monday that he was "very confident" of "long-term" economic growth in the US, which is the third longest in the history of the United States. American stock markets are growing steadily. The weakening of the hype surrounding US President Trump, the stabilization of the political situation in the Eurozone after the presidential and parliamentary elections in France, also contribute to reducing political risks and prices for precious metals. Nevertheless, further strengthening of the dollar clearly lacks an additional positive momentum. Some weaker than expected macro data from the US, some people question the Fed's determination to further tighten the monetary policy in the US. Perhaps, the statements of a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve scheduled for this week will once again give confidence to investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar. For example, on Tuesday, scheduled speeches by the president of the Fed-Boston Eric Rosengren, executive director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan and Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer. On Friday, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and FRS President St. Louis James Bullard will deliver a speech. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels Meanwhile, the price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the price of silver is growing, however, the negative trend continues. The pair XAG / USD broke through the important support levels of 17.33 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.10 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 16.88 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the pair decline since August 2016 and level of 20.60) and Continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts with immediate targets near the levels of 16.15, 15.73 (low in 2016) The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.73 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will be the goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and the decline of the pair XAG / USD for the next 3-4 weeks. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the level of 16.88. More distant goals in the case of the resumption of the growth of the pair XAG / USD - the levels of 17.33 (May highs), 17.59 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Here, the top line of the descending channel passes on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts. More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the XAG / USD pair - the levels of 18.18 (Fibonacci 50% and EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.76 (Fibonacci level 61.8%). So far, negative dynamics prevails. Support levels: 16.30, 16.15, 15.73 Resistance levels: 16.88, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.18, 18.76 Trading scenarios Sell ​​Stop 16.45. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.25, 16.15, 15.73 Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.45. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.17, 18.48, 18.76 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  13. TifiaFX
    Brent: the number of drilling in the US rose again 19/06/2017 Current dynamics The new trading week, the price of oil begins with a decline. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures fell to $ 47.23 a barrel during today's Asian session. Published on Friday, data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes showed that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase. Earlier, quotes of oil fell for four consecutive weeks. Despite the recent extension of the OPEC-Russia deal to reduce oil production for another 9 months, the excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by 17%, losing the positions won after the deal in late 2016. The increase in oil production in the United States and other major oil-producing countries largely offset OPEC's efforts to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this apart from prey in other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada. Libya recently reported plans to increase oil production by 160,000 barrels per day. Previously, production in Libya at these facilities was suspended for almost two years. According to experts, by the end of July, daily oil production in Libya could grow to 1 million barrels. There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of oil supply in the US will also increase more and more, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC. Increasing the efficiency of oil production in the United States can reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014. Now investors expect further price reductions and are hedged against the potential drop in oil prices in the coming months below $ 41 per barrel. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels On a weekly chart, the price of Brent crude oil broke the lower border of the rising channel near the current level of 47.10 and develops a downward trend. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. On the monthly chart the indicators also unfold to short positions. At the beginning of the month the price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and is currently declining to The support level is 46.20 (the Fibonacci level is 50.0%). In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled. The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 48.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth within the rising channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00. Nevertheless, negative sentiments continue to dominate the oil market, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline. Support levels: 47.10, 46.20, 45.50 Resistance levels: 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 47.10. Stop-Loss 47.80. Take-Profit 46.20, 45.50, 43.50 Buy Stop 47.80. Stop-Loss 47.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  14. TifiaFX
    XAG/USD: The dollar will build up positions 16/06/2017 Current dynamics After on Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, the dollar is steadily increasing its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60. The central bank also made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, which provided additional support to the dollar. Yesterday, ambiguous macro data on the United States came out. Although the weekly report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits showed a value of 237,000 against the forecast of 242,000, the labor market in the US looks quite stable. As you know, on Wednesday the Fed raised the interest rate by 25 basis points, to the range of 1-1.25% and signaled the possibility of another rate hike near the end of the year. The US Central Bank also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year. Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive for investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing. The Fed raised the rate, despite the recent slowdown in consumer inflation in the US. The Fed also reiterated that it plans to cut its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by a strengthening of the dollar and, again, a decline in the price of gold and silver. Precious metals are getting cheaper, even despite the continuing geopolitical tensions. Apparently, the prospect of another increase near the end of the year outweighs the chalice in favor of sellers and exerts additional pressure on the assets of the shelter, including silver. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels The price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.14 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% corrective growth to the pair's decline since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016) and continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.72 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will become a medium-term goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and a decline in the pair XAG / USD. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers’ side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the levels of 16.85, 17.00. The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.35, 17.58 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts. More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%). Negative dynamics still prevails. Support levels: 16.65, 16.20, 16.05, 15.72 Resistance levels: 16.85, 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 16.65. Stop-Loss 16.85. Take-Profit 16.20, 16.05, 15.72 Buy Stop 16.85. Stop-Loss 16.65. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  15. TifiaFX
    AUD/USD: after the Fed meeting 15/06/2017 Current dynamics As a result of a two-day meeting, the Fed raised yesterday the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. The decision was expected, and the dollar reacted with sufficient restraint to it. The dollar began to strengthen later, when at 18:30 (GMT) the FRS press conference began, from which it became known that the Fed is planning another increase towards the end of the year, as well as cutting its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. The portfolio of FRS assets rose to the current level from 800 billion dollars before the crisis, which was due to a number of bond purchase programs aimed at reducing long-term interest rates. According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by the strengthening of the dollar. Thus, the Fed once again confirmed its intention to tighten monetary policy in the US. As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved; however, there are other risks for the country's economy, which restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy. Slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP will restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy. The volatility of commodity prices, in particular iron ore, one of Australia's major export commodities, and their propensity to decline against the expected strengthening of the US dollar, also represents one of the significant risks to the Australian economy, which still retains the raw material features in many respects. The Australian dollar has grown today after the release of data showing a sharp increase in employment and a drop in the unemployment rate. Thus, the unemployment rate in May fell to 5.5% from 5.7% in April. The number of employees increased by 42,000 (with a growth by forecast of 10,000). The Australian labor market data was optimistic and supported the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and other world central banks supports the US dollar. This situation can also be attributed to the pair AUD / USD. If the Fed plans to raise the interest rate, the RBA intends to adhere to the current rate at least until the second half of 2018. We are waiting for today news from the US, which will increase volatility in pairs with the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD. A number of important macro data will be published between 12:30 and 14:00 (GMT), among which the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decrease to 242,000 versus 245,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the US dollar. Also data on industrial production in the US for May and the use of production capacity will be published. However, today and in the near future investors will still assess the results of the two-day meeting of the Fed and the increase in the interest rate in the US. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels Unlike other major currency pairs, the pair AUD / USD rose today during the Asian and European sessions, which was supported, among other things, by positive data from the Australian labor market published this morning. Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to the indications of the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts are deployed to short positions. On the general background of today's US dollar growth, the AUD / USD pair is likely to follow other dollar-denominated currency pairs. If in the course of the US trading session there are positive macro data on the US, it will probably become the trigger for the fall of the AUD / USD pair. "First Swallow" will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 0.7580 (EMA50 on the 1-hour chart). The fall in the AUD / USD pair in this case may continue to the support level of 0.7540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7514 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario for the fall of the pair AUD / USD. The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7495 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The following targets in case of breakdown of this support level - 0.7330 (November, May lows), 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830. If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, its growth will continue with the targets of 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014). Support levels: 0.7580, 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300 Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300 Buy Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  16. TifiaFX
    GBP/USD: inflation "eats" the wages of Britons 14/06/2017 Overview and dynamics Despite the fact that the Fed is expected to raise the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point following its two-day meeting, which will end today, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, decreased by 0.2%, to 88.31. The probability of such a decision on the part of the Fed is estimated by investors at 100%. Nevertheless, market participants are waiting for a press conference (will begin at 18:30 GMT) and comments of the Fed to assess further plans for interest rates and reducing the balance. The rate increase today at 0.25% is already taken into account in prices. And if the Fed signals about the suspension of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar will further fall. Slowing inflation in the US could alert the Fed. So, today at 12:30 (GMT) a block of the most important macro data from the USA is published, including inflation indices (retail sales and consumer price index for May). Nearly zero growth in May is expected (+ 0.1% and + 0.0%, respectively), which again indicates a slowdown or a very weak inflation rate in the US. If the Fed signals about the possibility of raising the rate one or two more times this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. The likelihood of such a scenario is also possible. As the Fed officials said more recently, the central bank can go on raising rates, despite a weak inflation rate, in order to avoid overheating the economy and the growth of soap bubbles in the US stock market. As for the pound, yesterday, along with the Canadian dollar, it was among the leaders of growth against the US dollar. The pound rose on strong inflation data from the European session yesterday (the consumer price index in the UK rose to 2.9% in May in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.7%)), the highest level in nearly four years. Today, the pair GBP / USD demonstrates the reverse dynamics and declines at the beginning of the European session. According to the data published on Wednesday, the level of wages adjusted for inflation fell for the second consecutive month compared to the same period last year. Real wages declined by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. This could negatively affect the growth of the British economy, which is highly dependent on domestic consumption. Consumer spending is an important component of UK GDP growth. On Thursday, the Bank of England (11:00 GMT) decides on the interest rate. It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.25%. Also at this time are published: a report on the monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as with comments on the state of the economy; the protocol of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with the distribution of votes for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The Bank of England will be very cautious about the issue of raising the interest rate, despite the high level of inflation in the country. The intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains. In the period of publication of the decision of the bank and during its subsequent press conference, the volatility of the pound trade is expected, which is already characterized by its high intraday volatility. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Technical analysis Despite support from strong inflation data, the pair GBP / USD failed to break through resistance level 1.2800 (EMA200 on 1-hour and daily charts), and after the publication of data on the labor market in the UK in the European session again declining. The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit. At the moment, the pair GBP / USD is trading at support level 1.2715 (EMA144 on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. Negative dynamics prevails. The pair GBP / USD decline will continue with the nearest targets near the levels 1.2550, 1.2340, between which the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the weekly chart. The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2825 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% GBP / USD in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart). Support levels: 1.2715, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110 Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2825, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2770. Take-Profit 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110 Buy Stop 1.2770. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  17. TifiaFX
    NZD/USD: when will the pair begin to decline? 13/06/2017 Current dynamics This week a number of important events will take place: meetings of central banks of Switzerland, Great Britain, Japan. However, the focus of traders will be a two-day meeting of the Fed (June 13-14) and the Fed's decision on the interest rate, which will be published June 14 at 18:00 (GMT). Forecast: the rate will be increased by 0.25% to 1.25%. After the decision on the interest rate, a comment on the monetary policy (FOMC Statement) is published and the press conference of the Federal Reserve begins. In the period of publication, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, and market participants will study the statement of the Fed on the presence of signals for further plans for monetary policy. Higher interest rates tend to support the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors, and putting pressure on commodity prices and commodity currencies. If the Fed signals about the possibility of one or two more rate increases this year, the US dollar will receive significant support. Also on Wednesday (at 22:45 GMT) a report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter is published. Forecast: + 0.7% (previous value + 0.4%). The publication of data will cause increased volatility in NZD. Against the background of rising prices for agricultural products in recent years (especially for dairy products, which is an important part of New Zealand's exports), it is likely that the report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter will come with positive indicators, and this will positively affect the positions of the New Zealand currency. If the GDP report turns out to be worse than expected, and the Fed signals about the possibility of further interest rate hikes, then the NZD / USD pair may drop sharply and finally begin a corrective downward movement to the pair's active growth from the middle of last month. Otherwise, the pair NZD / USD will continue its upward movement against the backdrop of positive macro data coming in from New Zealand recently. We also await data from New Zealand on the balance of payments for the first quarter (it is expected that the negative balance was 1 billion New Zealand dollars against the surplus of 1.18 billion NZ dollars in the 1st quarter of last year), which are published today at 10:45 (GMT) And data from China (retail sales, industrial production in May) on Wednesday morning, which will increase the volatility of trades on the New Zealand dollar. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics Support and Resistance levels As a result of active growth, which began in the middle of last month, the pair NZD / USD broke through a strong resistance level of 0.7190 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and came close to the resistance level of 0.7235 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave from the level of 0.8800 , Which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016). A little higher, through to the resistance level of 0.7270 is the 200-period moving average on the weekly chart. Thus, the NZD / USD pair is in the zone of strong resistance levels. For further growth and breakdown of these levels, the pair NZD / USD needs strong positive fundamental drivers, for example, signals from the RBNZ about the possibility of an early interest rate increase in New Zealand. The next meeting of the RBNZ on this issue will be held on June 21, ie. Already next week. As you know, RBNZ last month kept interest rate at 1.75% and stated that interest rates will remain unchanged for quite a long time, at least until the third quarter of 2019. If, however, in the rhetoric of the bank will be marked a more rigid position, the New Zealand dollar will receive a strong support, and then the resistance level of 0.7270 can be passed. Otherwise, the New Zealand dollar and the pair NZD / USD are waiting for a decline. While the RBNZ seeks to keep the current monetary policy unchanged, the Fed says it plans to gradually tighten monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policies of the RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next couple of years, despite the possible growth periods for the NZD / USD pair over several weeks. The return of the pair NZD / USD to the short-term support level 0.7165 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further decline in the NZD / USD pair and in the medium term with a target near the key support level of 0.7050 (EMA200, EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart). By the way, indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily period begin to unfold on short positions. Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818 Resistance levels: 0.7235, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 0.7190. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6820 Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380 ) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
  18. TifiaFX
    XAG/USD: The dollar is strengthening 09/06/2017 Current dynamics The third trading session the dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market against the assets-shelters - yen, franc, precious metals. The dollar received an additional positive impulse today after the first results of the elections to the UK Parliament became known, and after the ECB yesterday's meeting. As you know, the ECB kept the benchmark interest rate at 0%, the deposit rate - at the level of -0.4%, the rate on marginal loans - at the level of 0.25%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys European assets worth 60 billion euros, has also remained unchanged. The pound today collapsed in the foreign exchange market immediately after the first results of the exit poll of the elections became known yesterday at 21:00 (GMT), according to which the Conservatives and its leader, the current Prime Minister of Britain, Theresa May, failed to achieve an absolute majority in the country's parliament. The ruling Conservative party, although it remains the largest in the parliament, received 314 of 650 seats. Most votes are provided by 326 seats. Any factors that increase uncertainty around Brexit will be negative for the pound and the British stock market. The US dollar, meanwhile, is building up its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, rose yesterday by 0.1%, to 88.21. Now, after the ECB meeting, investors' attention shifts to a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on June 13-14. Most market participants expect an interest rate increase of 0.25%. August gold futures fell 1.2% yesterday, to 1278.20 dollars per troy ounce. Other precious metals, in particular silver, are also falling in price. The pair XAG / USD is down today for the third consecutive session, trading during today's European session near the mark of 17.35 dollars per troy ounce. The probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing. And, nevertheless, the continuing geopolitical risks, as well as political uncertainty in the UK, the US, France, where elections to the local parliament will also take place this weekend, support the demand for precious metals. Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the labor market of Canada, which may increase volatility in the foreign exchange market. Support and resistance levels For the past 4 weeks, the pair XAG / USD has skyrocketed in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, the upper limit of which is close to the level of 17.86. At the moment, after a three-day corrective decline, the pair XAG / USD is trading near support levels of 17.25 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart). Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers. The reduction scenario is associated with a breakthrough in the support level at 17.25 and a further decline in the downward channel on the daily chart with targets of 16.85 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016 ). The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD are the levels of 17.58 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts. More distant medium-term targets are the levels 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%). In the dynamics of the pair XAG / USD, one should pay attention to the current correlation with the pairs USD / JPY (-85%), XAU / USD (71%). Given the rather high cross-correlation, and how these pairs are relative to key support levels (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the conclusion suggests: either the pair XAG / USD will grow slightly (within 1.0% - 1.5%), Or remain at the current level of 17.35 (key support level (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), but provided that the dollar in pairs USD / JPY, XAU / USD increases by the same amount (1.0% - 1.5%). In the current situation of geopolitical uncertainty and on the eve of the Fed meeting next week, both options are possible. Support levels: 17.35, 17.25, 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72 Resistance levels: 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 17.23. Stop-Loss 17.46. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72 Buy Stop 17.46. Stop-Loss 17.23. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
  19. TifiaFX
    DJIA: US stock indexes are rising 08/06/2017 Current dynamics Despite all the volatility of foreign exchange markets and the uncertainty in the world political arena observed in recent weeks, the US stock market remains stable, as evidenced by the continued growth of major US stock indexes. While the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, declined in recent months to a level near the level of 88.00 (on Tuesday the index closed at a minimum since November 4), and the yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to the level of 2.1 % -2.2%, US stock indexes are breaking new records. So, the S & P500 index rose by 1.2% in May. DJIA and S & P500 rose for the second month in a row. But the biggest increase is demonstrated by the technological index Nasdaq, which in May grew by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index has been growing for the seventh month in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes shares of the largest US banks, also demonstrates a stable upward trend, which began in February last year. Even after the publication of an ambiguous report on the US labor market, published last Friday, the main US stock indexes rose again. The unemployment rate reached a minimum in May for 16 years, down to 4.3% from 4.4% in April. In general, the report on the US labor market is favorable enough for the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The probability of this is estimated by investors at about 90%. "Given the good state of the economy", as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker said last week, we can expect further growth in US stock indices, even though the Fed will raise the interest rate. Uncertainty about the implementation of the new economic policy of US President Donald Trump seems to be less worrisome for investors who are betting on the growth of the US stock market. Today and tomorrow, a volatility surge is expected in the foreign exchange market due to the fact that the ECB decides on the interest rate, there will be elections in the UK, and in the US, a former FBI head James Komi will speak in a Senate committee, testifying to the possible impact of Russia on the election campaign in the US, which can further complicate the position of President Donald Trump . The most cautious traders today took a wait-and-see attitude. With respect to the US stock indices, we can say that strong corporate reports for the first quarter, evidence of a stable recovery in the US economy, and a policy of gradual increase in interest rates in the US create the basis for further growth of the US stock market. Support and resistance levels At the beginning of the month the DJIA index exceeded the recent annual highs near 21170.0 and closed last week at the new absolute maximum of 21200.0. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts continue to remain on the side of buyers. The DJIA index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. In case of breakdown of the level 21200.0, the growth of the index may continue. In the alternative scenario, a short-term correction to the lower border of the uplink and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart (level 21115.0) is possible. Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20600.0). If the downward trend is to increase, then the decline in the index may extend to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% are near the mark of 21170.0). The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 19850.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend. Support levels: 21170.0, 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0 Resistance levels: 21200.0, 22000.0 Trading Scenarios Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 21090.0. Take-Profit 21220.0, 22000.0 Sell ​​Stop 21090.0. Stop-Loss 21220.0. Take-Profit 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
  20. TifiaFX
    AUD/USD: GDP data supported the Australian dollar 07/06/2017 Current dynamics While all the attention of investors is concentrated these days on Europe, the Australian dollar has received powerful support today from positive macro statistics and is actively growing in the foreign exchange market. The Australian dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market, and the AUD / USD pair has been growing for the fourth consecutive session. According to the data released today, Australia's GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.3% (the forecast was + 0.2%) against + 1.1% in the previous quarter and by 1.7% in annual terms (forecast was +1.5 %). The data turned out to be better than the forecast, which inspired market participants, who resumed purchases of the Australian currency, despite the fact that this is the slowest annual GDP growth rate since 2009. The growth of the Australian economy continues for 26 years after the recession that ended in the early 1990s. Over the years, the country's economy has become one of the most sustainable in the world. Nevertheless, slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP can not but alarm the monetary authorities and the Australian government. As you know, yesterday, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved, the capacity utilization has increased, however, there are other risks for the country's economy that restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy. At the same time, the slowdown in China's economy, Australia's largest trade and economic partner, its high debt levels represent an external medium-term risk factor for economic growth in Australia. On Thursday (01:30 GMT), the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish data on the foreign trade balance of Australia for April. A decrease in the balance surplus is expected to reach 1.91 billion Australian dollars. First of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the export data, which is the most important component of the country's budget. Reduction of the balance and export level surplus may negatively affect the quotations of the Australian dollar. Also on Thursday and Friday during the Asian trading session in China, published a number of important macroeconomic indicators (for May). If the data indicate deterioration in China's foreign trade balance and a slowdown in inflation, the Australian dollar may also react with a decline. Support and resistance levels The AUD / USD pair broke the key resistance level 0.7510 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) at a strong positive momentum at the beginning of the month from the support level of 0.7375 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and on the weekly chart) and develops an upward trend. The pair AUD / USD is trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014). Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts went to the side of buyers. The pair's growth will continue with the targets of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014), provided the US dollar remains weak. A more distant medium-term goal in this case is the level of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). If the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains, this goal can be achieved by September-October of the current year. The reverse scenario implies a return to the descending channel on the daily chart and the resumption of the decline in the wave that began in mid-March. The breakdown of the short-term support level at 0.7460 (EMA200 on 1-hour, 4-hour charts and 23.6% Fibonacci level) will confirm this scenario. The nearest medium-term goal in case of further decline in the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November and May lows). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum of wave in the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830. Support levels: 0.7510, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155 Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 0.7490. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155 Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7680, 0.7760 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
  21. TifiaFX
    XAU/USD: investors prefer safe havens 06/06/2017 Current dynamics The dollar continues to be under pressure following Friday's disappointing US labor market data for May. As you know, despite the fact that the unemployment rate in the US fell by 0.1% to a level of 4.3%, the NFP was significantly below the forecast. The number of jobs outside of US agriculture in May increased by 138,000 compared with April (the forecast was +184,000). Against the backdrop of a number of political and economic events that have recently occurred and are expected this week, investors prefer to withdraw their savings into safe haven assets - government bonds, yen, precious metals. Strengthening tensions in the Middle East around Qatar, a number of recent terrorist attacks in Britain, lower expectations of budget stimulation of the US economy, the expectation of the speech of former FBI director James Komi before the US Congress on Thursday, as well as parliamentary elections in the UK and the ECB meeting also scheduled for Thursday - here are the main geopolitical risks that increase the demand for gold and other safe assets. Gold enjoys strong demand even though the probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of gold. This precious metal does not bring interest income and can not compete with assets that generate such income, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the cost of acquiring gold and its storage is growing. And, nevertheless, the increased geopolitical risks promote active purchases of gold. So, at the beginning of today's European session, gold is trading near the level of 1288.00 dollars per troy ounce, which is $ 20 or 1.5% higher than the opening price of the current month. At the same time, the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, fell to a value of 88.16, approaching the levels where it was before the victory of Donald Trump in the November 8 elections. It is likely that before June 8, when the elections to the British Parliament and the ECB meeting on monetary policy are held, the pair XAU / USD will maintain a positive trend with a propensity for further growth. Support and resistance levels Having rebounded from the support level of 1220.00 (the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), since the middle of last month the pair XAU / USD continues to grow actively within the upward channel on the daily chart. The nearest target and resistance level of 1292.00 (Year and April highs) can be passed to the nearest trading session. A more distant goal is the resistance level of 1305.00, just above which the upper limit of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart. The highs of the previous wave of growth of the pair XAU / USD are near the level of 1370.00. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers. The reverse scenario is related to the return of the pair XAU / USD to support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further decrease to support levels 1257.00 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%). Breakdown of the key support level of 1240.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend. Support levels: 1277.00, 1261.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00 Resistance levels: 1292.00, 1305.00 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1293.00. Take-Profit 1270.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00 Buy Stop 1293.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1400.00 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
  22. TifiaFX
    GBP/USD: on the eve of parliamentary elections 05/06/2017 Current dynamics The PMI index (or the index of business activity) for the UK services sector in May was 53.8 (the forecast was 55.0, which is lower than the April index of the index 55.8). This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the service sector of Great Britain. The PMI of the UK service sector does not have such a strong impact on GDP as PMI in the manufacturing sector or the level of retail sales and consumer activity in the UK. At the same time, the decline in the PMI index for the service sector negatively affects the British currency. After the publication (08:00 GMT) of this index, the pound declined in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, the GBP / USD pair closed its sharp decline (with a gap of 30 points after the next terrorist act in Great Britain last weekend) during today's European session at the opening of today's trading day. Against the backdrop of the weakening dollar, the GBP / USD pair remains positive ahead of the June 8 elections to the UK Parliament. As you know, in mid-April, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections to ensure the dominant position of the Conservative Party in Parliament. It is likely that in these 3 days before the election to the UK Parliament the frequency of various sociological polls of the country's population will increase, which will cause an increase in the volatility in the pound trades. The elections, which will be held in the UK on June 8, attract the attention of investors. In the case of a significant advantage of conservatives in parliament, British Prime Minister Theresa May will probably be able to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If this happens, then the pound may significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market. This Thursday also will be a meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and next week will be a meeting of the Fed. It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. Nevertheless, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. Probably, all the same, that the risks associated with the implementation of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump, as well as his statements about the desirability of a cheaper dollar, outweigh the sellers of the dollar. Thus, if conservatives manage to get a convincing majority in the June 8 elections, then the GBP / USD pair can significantly strengthen. Otherwise, the pound and GBP / USD pair are expected to weaken in the foreign exchange market. In any case, this week, especially on the eve of June 8, the pound is expected to have increased volatility with sharp movements in both directions. Support and resistance levels The GBP / USD pair is currently trading near the balance line and the level of 1.2885, through which the 200-period moving average passes on the 1-hour chart. The GBP / USD pair keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, above the key support levels of 1.2840 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2800 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart). Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of buyers. In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2925, the pair GBP / USD growth will resume, and the GBP / USD pair will go to the resistance levels 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). In the case of breakdown of the support level 1.2800 and further reduction in support, the level will be 1.2700 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Further GBP / USD dynamics will in many respects be determined by the dynamics of the dollar and the comments of the Fed, which will be sounded on June 14, after the decision on the interest rate in the US is made. Support levels: 1.2885, 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110 Resistance levels: 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110 Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
  23. TifiaFX
    XAG/USD: pending publication of data from the labor market 02/06/2017 Current dynamics The focus of attention of all participants of financial markets today is the publication of data from the US labor market, which is scheduled for 12:30 (GMT). Very positive data are expected. Thus, according to the forecast it is expected that the growth of the average hourly wage will be 0.2% (against 0.3% in April), unemployment will not grow (4.4% against 4.4% in April). But perhaps the main focus will be on Non-Farm Payrolls (the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy). Yesterday Automatic Data Processing Inc. And Moody's Analytics reported data that in May the number of jobs in the private sector in the US increased by 253,000, which is significantly better than the forecast (185,000 and 174,000 in the previous month). This is the highest growth in the number of jobs since 2014. Recent positive macro data from the US significantly strengthened investors' opinion that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25% on June 13-14. So, positive ADP data on employment contributed to the growth of the dollar and the yield of treasury bonds. The index of the dollar WSJ rose by 0.2%, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.225% from 2.198% recorded on Wednesday. Investors are not so much worried about slipping into plans to reform the tax system and stimulate budget spending in the US, focusing on macroeconomic indicators. So, the index of business activity ISM published in the manufacturing sector (for May) released yesterday with a value of 54.9 (the forecast was 54.5 and 54.8 in April). The index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector of the US economy is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. Along with the data from ADP, the publication of the ISM index further stimulated the closing of short positions in the dollar on the eve of today's NFP publication. The Fed pays particular attention to data on the number of jobs, and by many investors they are perceived as the most important indicator of the state of the American economy. Now, many investors expect the Fed to raise rates more rapidly. That's the president of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today, that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year. If the data from the labor market, which are published today, really "do not disappoint", then the dollar will receive a powerful positive impulse before the Fed meeting on June 13-14. Then the market participants will have no doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors. Precious metals, which do not bring interest income, become cheaper in the conditions of the rate increase; the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing. With disappointing data on the US labor market, the dollar may weaken significantly in the foreign exchange market, and demand for precious metals, particularly silver, with the continuing political tension in the US around President Donald Trump will grow again. Support and resistance levels The pair XAG / USD could not gain a foothold above the key resistance level of 17.35 (EMA200 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart) and the third day is falling. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. The pair XAG / USD is in the zone of short-term support levels 17.18 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 17.14 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). If the NFP data prove to be strong, the pair XAG / USD will break through the levels of 17.18, 17.14 and go to the support level of 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to fall in the pair since August 2016 and level 20.59) with the prospect of a downward movement - 15.72 (low of 2016). You can return to consideration of long positions after fixing a pair above the level of 17.35. Support levels: 17.18, 17.14, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72 Resistance levels: 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 17.10. Stop-Loss 17.28. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72 Buy Stop 17.28. Stop-Loss 17.10. Take-Profit 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
  24. TifiaFX
    AUD/USD: Against the background of weak macro data from China 01/06/2017 Current dynamics After extremely volatile trading, the Australian dollar fell sharply during the Asian session today. After the release of optimistic data on retail sales in Australia in April (+ 1.0% vs. the forecast + 0.3%), the Australian currency strengthened. This is the largest monthly increase in more than two and a half years. However, soon the Australian dollar fell sharply after China's production report, which turned out to be weak, was published. The index of supply managers (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector from Caixin Media Co. In May, it fell to 49.6 (against 50.3 in April). China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and a consumer of Australian iron ore and coal. The growth of the Australian economy still depends heavily on the commodity sector. And the decline in commodity prices, as well as the slowdown in the economy of the Australian partner countries, have a strong impact on the Australian dollar, undervaluing its value. At the same time, despite the unexpected growth in retail sales in April, other statistics still indicate a limited increase in consumer spending. Domestic consumption makes a big contribution to GDP growth. In view of the weak growth in consumption in Australia, some economists forecast zero or insignificant GDP growth for the first quarter. The consumer confidence index is weak, salaries are growing slowly, and purchasing power is limited. House prices also began to decline, which unleashes the hands of the RBA in the matter of lowering the interest rate. Earlier this month, the RBA retained its interest rate in Australia at 1.5%. However, the RBA can go on reducing the interest rate in the country due to record household debt, a record low salary growth and a weak labor market. At the same time, the US dollar is showing growth today in the foreign exchange market. Despite the problems that have arisen with the administration of the US President in implementing the plans for a new economic policy, investors focus on positive macro statistics coming from the United States. President of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today expressed confidence that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year. Thus, the difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBA is the main driver for reducing the pair AUD / USD. Today we are waiting for data from the USA. Between 12:15 and 14:00 (GMT) a whole block of important macroeconomic indicators is published. Among the data - the index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector (in May) and the index of gradual acceleration of inflation. We expect weaker indicators than in the previous month, which could negatively affect the dollar. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, the figures look very positive. Also worth paying attention to the report of ADP on the level of employment in the private sector of the US for May. Investors often consider it a harbinger of the NFP, although no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls is usually noted. Strong data positively affects the dollar. Here the growth is expected (185,000 versus 177,000 in April), which will support the US dollar. In general, macro statistics are expected to be very positive, which will have a positive impact on the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD. Support and resistance levels Since mid-March, the AUD / USD pair is actively declining in the downlink on the daily chart. The pair AUD / USD is below the important resistance levels 0.7510 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014, as well as the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour Chart). The negative dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers. The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November, May minima and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830. The alternative scenario is related to the return of the pair AUD / USD to the zone above the level of 0.7510 and further growth to the resistance levels of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% correction to the fall wave from July 2014). Fundamental factors create the prerequisites for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair. Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155 Resistance levels: 0.7420, 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680 Trading scenarios Sell ​​Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7420. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155 Buy Stop 0.7420. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7535, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7600 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
  25. TifiaFX
    EuroStoxx50: decline in the fifth consecutive session 31/05/2017 Current dynamics It seems that the main European stock indexes can finish this week in a negative territory. The election of the president of France is already behind, and the positive momentum begins to fade as weak macro statistics from the Eurozone arrive. ECB President Mario Draghi earlier this week confirmed that economic recovery is accelerating, but core inflation is still too weak to change the monetary policy of the bank. Here and today in the Eurozone came some macro statistics, which confirm the words of Mario Draghi. So, the preliminary index of consumer prices (CPI) of the Eurozone in May grew by 1.4% (against the forecast of + 1.5% and + 1.9% in April). Unemployment in the Eurozone in April fell by 0.1%, but still remains high (9.3%). Decrease in indices is observed throughout the world. So, the US stock indexes on Tuesday fell under the pressure of shares of oil and gas and financial companies. The oil and gas subindex in the S & P500 showed the worst results for the day, falling by 1.3%. The European StoxxEurope600 index lost another 0.3% on Tuesday, with banks and insurance companies leading the decline. The EuroStoxx50 index was down yesterday for the fifth consecutive session. At the beginning of today's European trading session, the EuroStoxx50 index is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 3554.0, however, is under pressure from incoming weak macro statistics for the Eurozone. As has been repeatedly announced by the leaders, the ECB is unlikely to go on winding up the extra soft monetary policy at the moment. The ECB management believes that the growth of the Eurozone economy is still weak enough to begin curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone. So far, this supports European indices. And still, among investors, there is talk that the ECB may announce the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone. The ECB's next meeting on monetary policy will be held on June 8. As ECB leaders said earlier, the rate hike will not begin earlier than the quantitative easing program, at which the European Central Bank will buy European assets worth 60 billion euros a month, will be completed. Support and resistance levels At the beginning of the month against the backdrop of the election of the new French president, the EuroStoxx50 index reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 3680.0. After that, a gradual decline in the index started, and at the moment the EuroStoxx50 index is traded at the short-term support level of 3550.0 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart). Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. If the EuroStoxx50 index falls further, the next target will be the support level of 3525.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart). The level is strong enough. In general, the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index remains. In case of rebound from the level of 3525.0, the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume. At least, the ECB's propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy contributes to this. Medium-term short positions will become relevant only after the EuroStoxx50 index falls below the level of 3500.0 (March and April highs on the eve of the first round of presidential elections in France). The reduction targets will be support levels 3435.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave of growth since June 2016), 3380.0 (EMA144), 3325.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Support levels: 3525.0, 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0 Resistance levels: 3580.0, 3680.0, 3700.0 Trading Scenarios Sell ​​Stop 3520.0 Stop-Loss 3590.0. Take-Profit 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0 Buy Stop 3590.0. Stop-Loss 3520.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
×
×
  • Create New...