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NZD/USD: on the eve of the Fed and the RBNZ meetings 20/03/2018 Current dynamics On the eve of the Fed meeting and the publication of an interest rate decision on Wednesday, the US dollar is rising against commodity currencies, including against the New Zealand dollar. Most market participants expect that the Fed will announce the first interest rate increase in 2018, as well as give slightly more positive predictions about the growth of the US economy in the next 2 years. The forecast of economists for 2018 envisages US GDP growth of 2.7%, as well as a decrease in unemployment to 3.9% by the middle of the year and 3.8% by December. At the same time, many market participants will look for signals in the Federal Reserve's statement regarding the possibility of accelerating rates of rate hikes this year in order to prevent overheating of the economy. The Fed's inclination towards more aggressive policy tightening may support the dollar, as raising borrowing costs in the US makes the dollar more attractive to investors. If the Fed leaves its forecast for 3 rate increases this year, the US dollar may fall, as the probability that rates will be raised this year 3 times is already taken into account in the dollar quotes. On the same day, when the decision of the Federal Reserve on the rates will be published, the RBNZ meeting on monetary policy in New Zealand will conclude. The RBNZ decision on the rates will be published on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT). As expected, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. The New Zealand currency remains robust against the US dollar, despite the threat of a trade war between China and the United States, the largest trade and economic partners of New Zealand. According to the data released last week, New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter (+ 2.9% in annual terms). This is quite strong data, indicating a stable state of the New Zealand economy, which remains one of the fastest growing in the world. Nevertheless, the RBNZ is unlikely to go on to tighten monetary policy, economists expect, until mid-2019. If, however, the accompanying statement of the RBNZ, which will also be published on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT), contain signals on the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, then the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar, even in spite of The Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy in the US. From the news for today we are waiting for the data with the results of the milk auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), which will be published after 13:00 (GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. If the data points to another decline in world prices for dairy products, primarily for milk powder, the New Zealand dollar will decrease. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.6%) against the previous values of -0.5%, + 5.9%, + 4.9%, +2.2 % and + 0.4%. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800 Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550 Trading Scenarios Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800 Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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XAU/USD: The dollar is rising before the Fed meeting 19/03/2018 Current dynamics While the dollar is strengthening in the foreign exchange market, and market participants are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held on March 20-21, gold prices are down, today is the fifth week in a row. The growth of the dollar makes gold and other commodities traded for the US currency, less attractive to holders of other currencies. As expected, the Fed will raise the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.50% -1.75%. Earlier in December, Fed executives planned 3 interest rate increases in 2018, and 2 increases in 2019. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy amid the fast-growing US economy. So, the macro data published on Friday confirmed the growth of industrial production in the USA. The index of industrial production in February was + 1.1% (the forecast was + 0.3%, the previous value was -0.3%). At the same time, the consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 in March (the forecast was 99.3 and 99.7 - the previous value), a maximum of almost 14 years. It is likely that at the March meeting, the Fed will also raise its forecast for economic growth for the next two years. The expected increase in budget spending in the US, as well as stimulation of the economy due to lower taxes on the activities of US corporations against the backdrop of low unemployment will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy. Investors are trying to understand whether the Fed will raise interest rates 4 times, whereas the Fed previously talked about 3 interest rate increases in 2018. At higher interest rates, gold is difficult to compete with assets that generate interest income, for example, with treasury bonds. Basically, economists expect that a further increase in the interest rate in the US this year will put pressure on gold. However, the decline in gold prices will be restrained by its purchases from retail buyers and also by some investors using gold to hedge the risks of growth in consumer prices amid the expected increase in inflation. The drop in gold prices will also be hampered by political and economic uncertainty in the world, as many investors prefer to invest in reliable assets during periods of instability in the markets. Another reshuffle in the administration of the White House, as well as the introduction of duties on imports of steel and aluminum in the US, which provoked fears of unleashing trade wars, increase the demand for protective assets, such as gold. For today, important news in the economic calendar is not planned, and, apparently, the positive dynamics of the dollar will remain, and the pair XAU / USD will remain under pressure, until Wednesday. At 18:00 (GMT) on Wednesday, the Fed's interest rate decision will be published and the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell will begin, and the comments of the Fed on the decision and prospects of monetary policy in the US will be published. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 1308.00, 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00 Resistance levels: 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1307.00. Stop-Loss 1316.00. Take-Profit 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00 Buy Stop 1316.00. Stop-Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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DJIA: the index completes the week in a negative territory 16/03/2018 Current dynamics On Thursday, the US stock index Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 24873.00 points. Nevertheless, the DJIA seems to be wrapping up this week and the first half of the month in negative territory. DIJA remains in the bullish long-term trend; however, the positive momentum of further growth is dying out more and more. Investors continue to assess the impact of the protectionist trade measures of the Donald Trump administration, and also expect additional signals from the Federal Reserve regarding a more rapid increase in interest rates in the United States. After earlier in March, US President Donald Trump signed a decree on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, representatives of the world's largest economies protested against US protectionist actions. The EU has already prepared a package of countermeasures against American goods. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU. Now the White House is exploring the possibility of implementing a package of initiatives aimed against China, including duties on the import of certain goods. However, China is the largest holder of US government bonds and stock assets. If China, in response to the US protectionist actions, begins to massively get rid of them, then this may cause a new wave of sales on the US stock market. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.824% from 2.815% on Wednesday, staying close to the psychologically important level of 3.000%. The increase in bond yields in early 2018 was one of the reasons for the decline in world stock markets. Profitability can grow even more on the background of the normalization of monetary policy and the further strengthening of the world economy. If their profitability exceeds the mark of 3.000%, it will sharply increase the degree of anxiety and lead to another wave of sales of stock assets, according to many economists. Investors are still cautious after the sharp sales observed in early February. Now investors are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019. If the Federal Reserve signals to the Fed's determination to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace, the outlook for the US stock market will deteriorate significantly. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 24650.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0 Resistance levels: 25050.0, 25750.0, 26620.0 Trading Scenarios Buy Stop 25070.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 25750.0, 26620.0 Sell Stop 24600.0. Stop-Loss 25070.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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EUR/USD: inflation in the Eurozone is still low to change the parameters of the QE program 15/03/2018 Current dynamics Speaking on Wednesday at the conference, ECB President Mario Draghi again drew the attention of investors to low inflation in the Eurozone, as well as to the increased risks for the European economy in connection with the prospect of a new trade war with the United States. "Among the risk factors for the outlook for inflation are new US trade measures, the strengthening of the euro. We will adhere to the order that is outlined in our leading indications, namely, our promise to maintain interest rates at current levels for a long time after the completion of net purchases (bonds)", Draghi said. Thus, on the part of the ECB leadership, the ECB's commitment to a soft monetary policy is again and again being confirmed. Interest rates will not increase "for a long period of time", Draghi said last week, when the ECB's regular meeting on monetary policy was held. In response to Mario Draghi's declarations, the euro is falling against the dollar, but the deeper decline of the euro is constrained by its growth in crosses against other currencies, primarily commodity ones. Friday (10:00 GMT) is expected to publish important inflationary indicators for the Eurozone, including labor costs (in the fourth quarter), consumer price indices for February. According to these data, consumer inflation in the Eurozone remains low. It is expected that the consumer price index in February rose by 0.2% (against the decline of -0.9% in January) and by 1.2% in annual terms. However, the publication of these data, despite their importance, will most likely provoke a weak market reaction, since this is a later release, and the data is already included in the prices. Volatility may increase in case of deviation from the forecast values. Investors are beginning to prepare for a meeting of the Fed, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy. Until the end of this week, EUR / USD is likely to remain positive, staying in the zone above support levels 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading above support levels of 1.2330, 1.2310. Long positions are relevant. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 1.2348 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), EUR / USD will go to the lower border of the range formed between the levels 1.2550 and 1.2200 (Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the EUR / USD drop from 1.3900 in the last wave of decline since May 2014). The breakdown of support level 1.2200 (50% Fibonacci level) will significantly worsen the outlook for EUR / USD and provoke a decline to support level 1.2100 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart). Nevertheless, while EUR / USD is trading above support levels 1.1870 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), 1.1790 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), a long-term bullish trend persists. *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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Brent: the current situation can be described as flat 14/03/2018 Current dynamics The Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry recently made another forecast, according to which, the production of shale oil in the country in April will increase by 131,000 barrels a day to a record level of 6.95 million barrels per day. The rapid growth in the production of shale oil in the US reduces OPEC's efforts to stabilize the level of demand and supply of oil and maintain world oil prices. As you know, the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day was signed in 2016 and will continue until the end of 2018. In the opinion of the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the president of OPEC at the present time, "reducing the cartel's production has prevented chaos in the oil market". And this, to a large extent, is true. But the increase in oil prices began, mainly, from June 2017, when OPEC confirmed the extension of the contract to reduce oil production before the end of 2018. Moreover, Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said at a press conference in Riyadh in February that Saudi Arabia is ready to take additional measures in this direction. "We believe that it is better for us to take redundant steps (to reduce supply) and ensure the restoration of the balance of the market", said Khaled Al-Falih. Meanwhile, in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), disagreements arose over the necessary level of oil prices. Saudi Arabia is aiming for prices around $ 70 per barrel or higher, while Iran would like prices to be around $ 60 per barrel. According to Iran, prices in the levels of $70 per barrel will provoke oil companies in the US to increase production even more rapidly, which will cause a collapse in prices. There is a certain share of truth in this. For example, US Deputy Energy Minister Dan Brulett said recently that US oil production this year may show "phenomenal" growth, making oil rally almost impossible. Participants in the oil market are waiting for OPEC's monthly reports, which will be released this week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week. However, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 4.3 million barrels, which could push up oil prices. And today the attention of traders will be riveted to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on data on oil reserves in the US, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks in the US increased by 2,023 million barrels last week. If the data is confirmed, oil quotes may decrease. Meanwhile, the second week Brent crude oil is trading near the level of 65.00 dollars per barrel. It seems that the oil market lacks drivers for either resuming growth, or for further, deeper, lowering. Thus, the current situation can be described as flat. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 64.80, 64.00, 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50 Resistance levels: 65.40, 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00, 70.75 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 63.80. Stop-Loss 65.70. Take-Profit 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50 Buy Stop 65.70. Stop-Loss 63.80. Take-Profit 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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USD/CAD: Bank of Canada concerned about talks over NAFTA 13/03/2018 Current dynamics As you know, last week the Bank of Canada retained its key rate at the previous level of 1.25%, referring to the growing uncertainty of the prospects for negotiations on the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). The USA is Canada's largest trading partner. Protectionist measures on the part of the US cause concern among all US trade partners, including in the leadership of Canada and its central bank. Recent US rhetoric increases the likelihood of a negative outcome of the NAFTA negotiations. As you know, the USA introduced 25% of the duty on the import of steel and 10% of the duty on the import of aluminum to the USA from all countries, except Canada and Mexico, the US partners for NAFTA. Import tariffs come into force 15 days after last Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed an order to impose duties. For Canada and Mexico, there is a 30-day delay. If the participating countries (the USA, Canada, Mexico) manage to agree on new conditions for the extension of NAFTA, steel and aluminum tariffs for Canada and Mexico will not be introduced. Otherwise, Trump promised to leave NAFTA. The US share in Canada's exports is about 75%, which is 20% of Canada's gross domestic product. The economy of Canada lost 88,000 jobs in January. In addition, the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, published earlier this month, pointed out that companies' investments could significantly slow down this year. Last Wednesday, when the meeting was held, the Bank of Canada said that economic prospects are expected to justify higher interest rates over time. However, it is possible that instead of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, some monetary easing will be required. This will become especially important if there are difficulties in the mutual trade relations between Canada and the United States. Any disruptions in trade flows between these two countries can have big consequences for the Canadian economy. Many investors expect that this year the Fed will raise rates four times, rather than three, as the central bank's leaders planned at a meeting in December. If the Federal Reserve receives signals about the intention to speed up the tightening of the policy, it will support the dollar. While the Fed plans to further tighten monetary policy, the failure of other major world central banks to normalize monetary policy will help strengthen the US dollar. Today, investors will pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz, which will begin at 14:30 (GMT). The soft rhetoric of his speech on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as the concerns voiced by Poloz about US protectionist actions and the prospects for NAFTA, will further lower the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050 Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170 Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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NZD/USD: Positive dynamics persists 12/03/2018 Current dynamics Published last week with the results of the dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), showed a slight decline in world prices for dairy products (-0,6%). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar is the most successful of all other currency-competitors traded against the US dollar in recent days. Investors continue to assess the impact of the decision of the White House on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum on international trade relations. Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, rose in response to this decision. Economists believe that the decision to impose import duties will positively affect the US economy. At least, the main US stock indexes are growing again, and the NASDAQ100 index updated its absolute maximum on Friday, and on Monday the NASDAQ100 futures are again trading higher, near the 7130.0 mark. Traditionally, it is believed that economic growth is accompanied by an increase in demand for primary commodities. The share of the United States in world GDP is estimated at 16-20%. Accordingly, the growth of the world's largest economy assumes a growing demand for commodities. The current weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices, which also positively affects the quotations of commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar. Wednesday (21:45 GMT) is expected to publish data on New Zealand's GDP for the 4th quarter (latest release). It is expected that GDP grew by 0.8% in Q4 (against + 0.6% in Q3), implying an annual GDP growth of about 2.5% -3.0%. This is strong enough data. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand currency will strengthen, including in the NZD / USD. On Tuesday at 21:45 (GMT) data on the balance of payments of New Zealand will be published. Reducing the current account deficit in the balance of payments of New Zealand (expected to reach $ 2.40 billion from NZ $ 4.68 billion) will support the New Zealand currency. In the absence of important news in the economic calendar, flat and low trading volumes are expected in the foreign exchange market today. However, it is worth paying attention to the speech (at 23:45 GMT) of the deputy head of the RBNZ Grant Spencer. If he touches on the RBNZ monetary policy, then the volatility of the New Zealand dollar trades will go up. Rigid rhetoric of his speech on inflation and the likelihood of tightening monetary policy will cause the New Zealand dollar to grow. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800 Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.7290. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165 Buy Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7290. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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S&P500: investors are concerned about the possibility of commencement of trade wars 07/03/2018 Current dynamics More recently (at the end of last week), participants in the global financial market were concerned about the US decision to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. Today, this story was developed after it became known about the resignation of the chief economic adviser to President Donald Trump Gary Cohn, who opposed the introduction of new duties. His resignation upset the market participants, pointing out that Trump intends to pursue a tougher policy with regard to trading partners, and can unleash a large-scale trade war. On this news, the currencies of those countries that actively trade with the US, including the Mexican peso and commodity currencies - the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar - fell sharply. Also, the main US stock indexes fell, and asylum assets rose in price because of fears about US policy. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 2.863% from 2.877%, while the yen rose 0.4% against the dollar during the Asian trading session. Representatives of the world's largest economies are extremely negative about the intentions of the White House to introduce import duties. Thus, the Minister of Economy of Germany, Brigitte Tsipris, said today that "in the event of a worsening situation, the EU is ready to respond appropriately, but our goal is to avoid a trade conflict". "Trade brings prosperity when it is based on exchange and interaction", she said. So far, the signals coming from the US are bothering me". The EU intends to challenge the planned US introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum. Investors are worried that the main US trading partners will retaliate and this will start the world trade war, which will negatively affect world economic growth. The EU has already announced the preparation of a package of measures worth 3.5 billion US dollars in respect of imports from the United States. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Wednesday that it could be "very bad" for the global economy. "If the process grows, it will be very bad. If retaliatory measures are taken, the world economy will suffer a very strong blow", Philip Lowe said. Meanwhile, the main US stock indexes are at the beginning of the European trading session in the negative territory after they collapsed at the opening of today's trading day after the resignation of Gary Cohn. Today we expect a busy trading day. After 13:15 to 13:30 (GMT), a block of important macro data from the US will be published, including the ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy (for February), foreign trade balance (January), inflation indicator of costs per unit labor force and labor productivity outside the agricultural sector for the 4th quarter, at 13:30 the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be published. The growing uncertainty in trade relations between Canada and the United States will help ensure that the Bank of Canada retains the key interest rate unchanged at 1.25%. We would like to remind you that volatility in this period will rise sharply, and this must be taken into account when making trading decisions. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2590.0, 2530.0 Resistance levels: 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 2680.0. Stop-Loss 2735.0. Objectives 2670.0, 2630.0, 2600.0, 2590.0, 2530.0 Buy Stop 2735.0. Stop-Loss 2680.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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NZD/USD: before publishing data from the dairy auction 06/03/2018 Current dynamics Investors are still assessing the possible long-term impact on international trade relations from the recent decision of the White House to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. "America is first of all". The US, as usual, does not particularly consider the interests of their closest trading partners when it comes to the interests of the US itself. "When a country (the USA) loses many billions of dollars in trade with almost all the countries with which it conducts business, trade wars are good, and they are easy to win", Trump wrote on Twitter, making it clear that these are normal methods of the US administration . For American companies, primarily working in these sectors of the economy, this may be good, but for the nearest US trading partners - not very much. The European Commission and China announced the possibility of applying retaliatory measures. If the US stock indices appear to have positively perceived the information on the protection of the domestic market through the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, strengthening against commodity currencies, and declining against the yen and European currencies. The second day the futures for the DXY index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 other currencies, are trading near the 89.90 mark. At the beginning of today's European session, the dollar is growing against Canadian and Australian dollars, but is down against the New Zealand dollar. From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar. Also worth paying attention to the publication on Thursday (02:00 GMT) of data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) which may have a significant impact on the New Zealand dollar and cause volatility in the NZD / USD pair, as China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and the buyer of agricultural products of the country. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800 Resistance levels: 0.7258, 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6900, 0.6865 Buy Stop 0.7280. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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AUD/USD: there is no reason to change the current RBA monetary policy 05/03/2018 Current dynamics On Tuesday, when the next meeting is held, the RB of Australia is likely to maintain the current level of the interest rate unchanged (1.5%). After the previous meeting of the RBA (February 6), a number of macro statistical indicators worsened: inflation expectations and consumer sentiment deteriorated, and the level of retail sales decreased, the labor market deteriorated, and the trade balance deficit doubled. In a recent speech to Parliament, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowey said that he "would prefer a lower exchange rate". In his opinion, "there is no reason to raise rates in the short term". Lowey noted that "inflation remains low," although "business sentiment is improving". The key rate of the RBA remains at a record low of 1.5% for the RBA since mid-2016, and economists believe that the central bank will not change it after 2019. The Reserve Bank of Australia predicts the retention of slow inflation and the inability to achieve full employment over the next few years. According to Philip Lowey, "the strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar". The Australian dollar remains largely a commodity currency, and an increase in world commodity prices against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, contributes to the growth of the Australian dollar. The reasons for changing the current monetary policy in the RBA do not see. The RBA's decision on the interest rate, in practice, will not have a noticeable effect on the Australian dollar. But data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) will be published on Thursday (00:30 GMT) may have a much greater impact on the Australian dollar. China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and buyer of its primary commodities (primarily iron ore, liquefied gas, and agricultural products). The decline in Australian imports to China could have the most negative impact on the Australian dollar. This week, investors will also follow the publication on Friday (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market (for February). The publication, as expected, of strong values will strengthen the position of the US dollar and give the Fed an extra trump card in the execution of the planned plan to further tighten monetary policy in the US. The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD. From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 14:45 and 15:00 (GMT) of indicators of business activity in the US services sector for February. Despite the expected slight decrease, the indices remain well above the 50 mark, which is a positive factor for the USD. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330 Resistance levels: 0.7765, 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.7730. Stop-Loss 0.7775. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330 Buy Stop 0.7775. Stop-Loss 0.7730. Take-Profit 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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S&P500: indexes continue to decline 02/03/2018 Current dynamics Major US stock indexes continue to decline, receiving a negative impulse at the beginning of the week from the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. As you know, during his first official speech before Congress on Tuesday, Powell drew a very positive picture of the state of the American economy, confirming the Fed's intention to gradually tighten monetary policy. "Economic prospects remain strong. A further gradual increase in the rate of federal funds will best contribute to the achievement of the goals of the Fed", in his opinion. Jerome Powell said that the Fed "will continue to seek a balance between avoiding overheating of the economy" and the achievement of annual inflation of 2%. Many investors considered Powell's speech as a signal to the Fed intending to hold 3 interest rate increases planned at the December meeting. Some market participants felt that the Fed could implement even 4 increases instead of the previously planned 3 increases. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated by investors at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%. The tightening of monetary policy negatively affects the dynamics of the stock markets, since it leads to an increase in the cost of borrowing. Investors in this case prefer the dollar as a more reliable form of investment in comparison with highly risky assets. On Friday, the major US stock indexes are down for the fourth consecutive day. On Thursday, President Donald Trump, who announced that next week he will approve the plan to introduce new import duties on steel and aluminum by 25% and 10%, respectively, contributed to this decline. Market participants are afraid of accelerating inflation and slowing the growth of US GDP due to new import tariffs. From China and Europe, statements from the authorities have already followed that they will take counter measures to protect their interests. Since the beginning of the week, the DJIA dropped 3.3% to 24510.0 points, the S & P500 fell 3.1% to 2670.0 points. Thus, DJIA for 2018 decreased by 0.4% and the S & P500 - by 0.2%, again moving into the correction zone. European stock markets also fell. STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.3%, German DAX fell 2.0%, and the British FTSE and French CAC fell 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively. World trade wars have not brought long-term benefits to anyone. The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.802% from 2.870% on Wednesday, showing the most significant drop since September and indicating that investors are buying safer assets. Today, important news on the US is not expected. It is likely that the stock indexes, including the S & P500, will finish today's trading session in negative territory. While the S & P500 is below the short-term resistance level of 2725.0 (200-period moving average on 1-hour and 4-hour charts), it is necessary to consider only short positions with objectives at support levels 2630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth from February 2016 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 2580.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0 Resistance levels: 2725.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 Trading Scenarios Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 2686.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2585.0, 2530.0 Buy Stop 2686.0. Stop-Loss 2665.0. Objectives 2725.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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GBP/USD: pound remains vulnerable 01/03/2018 Current dynamics The pound on Thursday slightly strengthened after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in January. As shown by the data provided by the Bank of England, the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in January reached a six-month high after a fall in December (67,478 versus 61,692 in December). The January figure was the highest since July 2017 and significantly exceeded the average for six months. The index of business activity of purchasing managers (PMI) in the manufacturing sector for February was 55.2 versus 55.3 in January (the forecast was 50.0). The pound received little support after the publication of the data, but, economists believe, for a short while. On Wednesday, the pound declined significantly in the foreign exchange market after some details of the draft agreement on the exit of the UK from the EU became known, according to which, in particular, the creation of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK is envisaged. Thus, the dynamics of the pound in the coming months will strongly depend on news about Brexit. Although the collapse of the British economy after the referendum on Brexit in June 2016 did not happen, however, the pound fell sharply, which contributed to a significant acceleration of inflation in the UK. In this regard, the income of the British and their purchasing power declined, which affected domestic trade and retail sales. Since, the British economy is focused, first of all, on the domestic market; the decrease in domestic trade has a negative impact on the country's GDP. In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound. At the same time, the pound will remain vulnerable against the euro and the dollar against the backdrop of Brexit. The dollar, on the other hand, receives strong support both from the growing expectations for a faster rate of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed, as well as from strong macro data coming from the US recently. Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data on the US (from 13:30 to 15:00 GMT), as well as the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell in the banking committee of the Senate (at 15:00 GMT). If he more specifically signals about the high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, the dollar will receive an additional impetus for growth, including in the GBP / USD. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 1.3725, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3390, 1.3210 Resistance levels: 1.3890, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575 Trading Scenarios Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 1.3810. Take-Profit 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3390, 1.3210 Buy Stop 1.3810. Stop-Loss 1.3690. Take-Profit 1.3890, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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EUR/USD: The euro is under pressure before the weekend 28/02/2018 Current dynamics As reported on Wednesday (10:00 GMT) by the European Statistical Agency (Eurostat), consumer prices in the Eurozone in February rose by 1.2% (in annual terms). The data suggest that inflation growth rates were the weakest since December 2016 and well below the ECB target level (just below 2%). In February, the rate of inflation slowed for the third month in a row. This index is a key indicator for the ECB in assessing inflation. The current value of the index indicates that the leaders of the ECB will continue to be cautious when considering the issue of reducing the stimulation of the European economy. As ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday, it is too early to talk about curtailing the quantitative easing program, since inflation is still far from the target level. At the same time, the Eurozone economy continues to grow at a good pace (it is expected that GDP growth in 2017 was 2.5%). In 2017, the economy of the Eurozone grew at the fastest pace over the past 10 years, and, apparently, will keep momentum this year. Mario Draghi again stressed that the ECB will continue its course on monetary policy without any changes. At a recent meeting of the ECB in 2017, it was decided that the program for the purchase of European assets will continue, at least until September 2018. At the same time, ECB interest rates will remain at the same low level for a long time after the end of the QE program. Meanwhile, optimistic statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the US economy, made by him on Tuesday, supported the dollar. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, reached the highest level since early February, rising to around 90.40, completely closing the decline for the last two weeks. Jerome Powell drew attention to improving economic prospects, which was considered by investors as an indication that this year the central bank can raise interest rates 4 times. Investors have corrected the forecasts for interest rates. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%. The EUR / USD fell 350 points from the peaks in February to a minimum in seven weeks near the 1.2200 mark. The euro remains under pressure also because of investors' preoccupation before the elections in Italy and voting in the Social Democratic Party of Germany on the establishment of the ruling coalition this weekend. Today, market participants will closely monitor the macro data that will be published today in the US (13:30 GMT). Among the published data - annual GDP (for the 4th quarter), the index of expenditure on personal consumption and the price index of personal consumption expenditure. The growth of indicators is expected. Thus, GDP in Q4 is expected to grow by 2.5%, and for the entire 2017 GDP growth was also + 2.5%, which is higher than the average of 2% observed in the early 2000s. When confirming the data, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen, including in the EUR / USD. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support and resistance levels After in the middle of this month the EUR / USD has reached the next multi-month maximum near the mark of 1.2555, the last two weeks there has been a decline in EUR / USD. As a result of yesterday's decline against the background of the strengthening of the dollar after the statements of Jerome Powell, EUR / USD broke through the support level 1.2280 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and at the beginning of today's European session is trading near support level 1.2200 (low in February, lower mid-January consolidation zone, EMA50 on day chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014). This is a strong level of support, the breakdown of which will significantly worsen prospects for the bullish trend EUR / USD. Long-term upward dynamics persists as long as EUR / USD is trading above the key support levels 1.1790 (Fibonacci 38.2% and EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The signal for the resumption of purchases will be a return to the zone above the resistance level 1.2280. In this case, EUR / USD will again move towards the recent highs near the level of 1.2555. Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700 Resistance levels: 1.2280, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.2180. Stop-Loss 1.2220. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700 Buy Stop 1.2220. Stop-Loss 1.2180. Take-Profit 1.2285, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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XAU/USD: Positive dynamics, on the whole, persists 27/02/2018 Current dynamics While market participants are waiting for the beginning of the speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who speaks for the first time before the Congress, trading activity in the financial markets remains low. Nevertheless, in the first half of the European session, the dollar is gradually turning into an offensive. During the December Fed meeting, when the interest rate was again raised, the leaders of the US central bank announced the need for 3 interest rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019 to avoid overheating of the economy. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy. Judging by the minutes published last week from the January meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve decided that the economy will grow at a faster pace. The expected strong increase in budget spending in the US, as well as the stimulation of the economy by lowering taxes on the activities of US corporations against a background of low unemployment, will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy. The first rate increase under the new chairman Jerome Powell this year is likely to happen already at the March meeting of the Fed, and now market participants expect that in March, the leaders of the Fed will add another rate hike to the three planned this year. And it is precisely such signals that market participants will wait for today and tomorrow from Powell. From him, investors want to hear what the probability of a more rapid increase in interest rates. If Powell signals to market participants that there is a high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, then the dollar quotations will rise and another US stock market collapse may occur. As a rule, with an increase in the interest rate, the quotes of the national currency are growing. So far, there is an opposite picture - the dollar is under pressure. The growth of the federal budget deficit, the growing deficit of the foreign trade balance, which reached an impressive amount of 566 billion dollars in December, the highest level since 2008, causes a negative attitude of investors towards the dollar. Neither the Fed's efforts to tighten monetary policy, nor verbal intervention by representatives of the Federal Reserve and the White House on the desirability of a strong dollar, do not yet cause a response from buyers of the dollar. So yesterday's statement by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin that "in the long term the United States needs a strong dollar" did not affect the dynamics of the dollar. Now all the attention of investors today and tomorrow will be focused on the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. On how tough his speeches will be, the dynamics of the dollar for the near future will depend. During periods of increasing interest rates, gold usually becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds. Meanwhile, the price of gold keeps positive dynamics. Many economists believe that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation. The likelihood of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. The long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the mark of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce. However, these goals can be set only after the price of gold overcomes the mark of $ 1365.00 per troy ounce (the maximum of this year). Recall that the speech of Jerome Powell will start today at 13:30 (GMT). *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 1332.00, 1329.00, 1308.00, 1290.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00 Resistance levels: 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1328.00. Stop-Loss 1342.00. Take-Profit 1308.00, 1290.00 Buy Stop 1342.00. Stop-loss 1328.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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S&P500: markets continue to recover 26/02/2018 Current dynamics Last week, the main US stock indexes completed in positive territory. The main increase of the indices in the previous week was due to strong growth on Friday. While indices are growing, investors are still in a state of confusion after the recent stock market crash observed earlier this month. Market participants are trying to understand - what is happening in the market: the markets resumed growth to new record highs or it is a temporary rebound before a new jerk down. The recent collapse in the stock markets was triggered, mainly, by increased inflation in the US, which could lead to more active actions of the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy. Against the backdrop of stable economic growth in the US and because of increased inflation, the Fed will be forced to raise rates at a faster pace in order to avoid overheating of the economy. And this is a strong negative factor for the stock markets, which usually grow against the backdrop of soft monetary policy and fall, if the rates have started to rise. Much also depends on the speed and scale of tightening monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth recalling the words of the former head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, that only raising rates is not enough to break the bullish trend of the US stock market, and a gradual increase in the rate indicates the strength of the American economy. Now market participants will wait for the first speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, before the congress, which will be held on Tuesday (13:30 GMT). Investors want to hear from Powell, what is the probability that this year rates will be raised more than 3 times. At the same time, many investors believe that during his first speech with a report on the results of the first half of the year, the new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will point to a good form of the US economy, however, he will not say anything new about the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed. It is likely that Powell will try to emphasize the need for a gradual increase in the rates of the Fed, avoiding any hint of the possibility of a faster rate hike. If Powell only hints at the possibility of raising rates more than 3 times this year, then the reaction of the markets can follow immediately: the dollar will jump in price, and the stock indexes will again fall down. Meanwhile, the S&P500 index is trading higher for the third day in a row, adding to the price from the opening of today's trading day. After the strongest collapse in early February, from February 9 futures on the S&P500 steadily adds to the price, gradually restoring positions, and at the beginning of today's European session S&p500 is trading near the mark of 2760.0. The index finished in positive territory 8 of the last 11 sessions since February 9 began recovery after the fall. Over the past two weeks, the S & P500 has gained about 5.0%, which was the strongest two-week increase since February 2015. The S & P500 grew almost fourfold from the 2009 low, and the yield of 10-year US government bonds in 2016 dropped to 1.336% from a level above 4% recorded in 2008. Now, another increase in the yield of 10-year US government bonds above 3% may provoke another decline of not only the S & P500 index, but the entire US stock market, followed by other global stock markets. From the news for today, which can cause the growth of volatility in the financial markets, we are waiting for the speech (at 13:00 GMT) of the member of the FRS Committee on Open Markets, James Bullard and ECB President Mario Draghi (at 14:00 GMT). *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 2725.0, 2682.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0 Resistance levels: 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2688.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0 Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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USD/CAD: much depends on the dynamics of the US dollar 22/02/2018 Current dynamics At the beginning of today's trading day, the dollar continued to rise after on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed were published. From the text of the protocols, investors learned that the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support plans for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. At the December meeting, when the rate was raised for the third time in 2017, it became known about the Fed's intentions to raise the rate three times in 2018 and make two more increases in 2019. During the January meeting, the US Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the key interest rate range of 1.25% -1.5% unchanged, but market participants expect that in March, when the first rate hike is expected to take place this year, the leaders of the Fed will add another increase in rates to the three planned. And if this really happens, then the dollar will receive a strong support, despite the fact that there are a number of negative factors of a fundamental nature that cause investors to be wary of the dollar. Among these negative factors - the growth of the federal budget deficit and the deficit of the foreign trade balance, which in December amounted to a record $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, at the beginning of the European trading session, the US dollar is once again declining. To resume the growth of the dollar, additional signals from the Federal Reserve and macro statistics are needed. Important news from US is not expected until the end of the week, but it should pay attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of such an important inflation and macro statistical indicator as the level of retail sales in Canada. According to the forecast, in December retail sales in Canada are expected to grow by 0.2% after growing by 0.2% in November. The index of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence. At the same time, retail trade is one of the most important components in filling the country's budget and GDP growth. A weak or negative value of this indicator is a negative factor for the Canadian dollar. If the value of the indicator is worse than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will decrease, including in the pair USD / CAD. And, conversely, an indicator exceeding the forecast value will help strengthen the Canadian dollar. Also worth paying attention to the speeches of a number of representatives of the Fed, scheduled for 15:00, 17:10, 20:30 (GMT), which may have a short-term effect on the dynamics of the US dollar, and may for a short time cause a rise in volatility in US dollar trading . *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050 Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2835, 1.2900 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1.2670. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170 Buy Stop 1.2720. Stop-Loss 1.2670. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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GBP/USD: before the release of the Fed's minutes 21/02/2018 Current dynamics In anticipation of the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the Fed meeting held on January 30-31, the dollar remains stable and trades with a slight increase. In December, the Fed for the third time in 2017 increased the rate, bringing it to the current level of 1.5%. Fed leaders voted unanimously for this rate hike and showed a tendency to further tighten monetary policy in the next two years. During the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intention to raise the interest rate three times in 2018 and twice in 2019. Market participants expect that the first rate increase may occur already during the March meeting of the Fed (March 20 - 21). Moreover, many investors (21%, according to the latest data from the CME Group) believe that the Fed will raise the rate four times in 2018 amid a steady growth in the US economy, the labor market and inflation. And now, investors are hoping to catch new signals from the Fed regarding further plans in the matter of monetary policy. As usual, the national currency grows when the interest rate rises. So far, the growth of the dollar is not observed, since many investors remain negative towards him because of deep negative fundamental factors. Many economists believe that the dollar is only at the beginning of the multi-year cycle of the next decline. But everything can change if the Fed will systematically tighten monetary policy, and the positive macro data will come from the USA. There is still no clear idea of how the macroeconomic situation in the US will change as the new tax and economic policies of the White House are implemented. As for the pound, the positive macro statistics received during the current European session from the UK did not significantly affect its dynamics. Despite the fact that the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased in the fourth quarter of 2017 (by 0.1% to 4.4%), the overall employment rate has increased, and the number of unemployed has declined most strongly since the end of 2015. Wages also increased. Moreover, the growth of salaries in the UK has been the strongest since the end of 2016. In January, inflation remained at 3.0%, which is 1 percentage point higher than the target level of the Bank of England. In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound. At the same time, the pound will remain vulnerable against the euro and the dollar against the backdrop of Brexit. Among other important news for today regarding the pair GBP / USD, it is worth highlighting the speech (at 14:15 GMT) of the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney during the hearing in the British Parliament of the Bank of England's report on inflation. And at 14:45 there will be a block of important macro statistics from the United States. Among the published data - PMI in the leading sectors of the US economy (in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector) for February (preliminary release). The growth of indicators is expected, which will give an additional bullish impulse to the dollar. With respect to the pair GBP / USD, we can say that, in general, positive dynamics remains. However, GBP / USD is in the zone of strong resistance levels 1.4185 (EMA50 on the monthly chart), 1.4050 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), from which it is possible, if not a turn, then a deep enough rebound. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 1.3890, 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3370, 1.3210 Resistance levels: 1.3990, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575 Trading Scenarios Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 1.4010. Take-Profit 1.3890, 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3370 Buy Stop 1.4010. Stop-Loss 1.3910. Take-Profit 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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NZD/USD: Fundamental factors are on the side of US dollar sellers 20/02/2018 Current dynamics The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market after it reached new lows last week. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, is growing for the third consecutive day. At the beginning of the European session, the futures on the DXY index traded with an increase near the mark of 89.50. The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the growth of the yield of US Treasury bonds, which is close to the highs observed last week. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.92% on the eve of the first trading day in the US this week. On Monday, US markets were closed due to the day off (President's Day). Meanwhile, the attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains negative. Economists and financial companies lowered forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018. Significant growth of the country's budget deficit, coupled with the growth of the foreign trade deficit to $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008, leads to a further decrease in investors' interest in the dollar. The new US tax law, which provides for a significant reduction in taxes and an increase in budget spending, will only contribute to the growth of the federal budget deficit. Despite the positive macro statistics coming from the US, deep fundamental factors are on the side of dollar sellers. Meanwhile, the dollar receives short-term support on the eve of the publication on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System. Probably, investors will wait for new signals from the leadership of the Fed regarding further interest rate increases in the US. As you know, the Fed planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 more increases in 2019. From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of +5.9% (against previous values of +4.9%, +2.2% and +0.4%). If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar. Nevertheless, this time the reaction of market participants to this publication will likely be restrained due to the continued celebration of the New Year in China, which is New Zealand's largest partner and buyer of dairy products from this country. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 0.7340, 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800 Resistance levels: 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080 Buy Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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XAU/USD: gold prospects are positive 19/02/2018 Current dynamics After on Friday the price of gold updated the monthly maximum, having risen to the mark of 1361.00 dollars per troy ounce, then the price went to the corrective phase. The XAU / USD declined, retreating to the mark near the support level of 1348.00 (the opening price of the month). Last month, the price of gold reached the next local multi-month high near the mark of 1365.00 dollars per ounce. The last time near this mark the price was in July 2016. Nevertheless, with regard to the further dynamics of the price of gold, there are two opposing opinions of experts. The first view is that, amid rising inflation, the Fed will begin to raise interest rates at a faster rate, which will increase the interest to the dollar purchases. Gold does not bring investment income and is used, mainly, as a hedging instrument for risks during the period of economic or political instability in the world. In periods of increasing interest rates, gold, as a rule, becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds. Due to the growth of inflation expectations, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds returned to almost 3%. In this sense, the publication on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed, the latter under the leadership of Janet Yellen, will be of interest to investors this week. The minutes of the meeting may give market participants an idea that the Fed's management is thinking about the possible economic consequences of reforming the tax system and about accelerating inflation in the US. The contrary opinion of experts is that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation. Thus, the probability of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. Taking into account the multi-month cycles, the long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the levels of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce. In view of the fact that the US has a day off ("President's Day"), and American banks and exchanges are closed, the sluggish dynamics of trading on financial markets is expected until the end of the trading day. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 1340.00, 1328.00, 1308.00, 1289.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00 Resistance levels: 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 1343.00. Stop-loss 1358.00. Take-Profit 1340.00, 1328.00 Buy Stop 1358.00. Stop-Loss 1343.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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AUD/USD: The strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar 16/02/2018 Current dynamics During his speech today before the parliament, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Philip Lowey said that he "would prefer a lower exchange rate". In his opinion, "there is no reason to raise rates in the short term". Lowey noted that "inflation remains low", although "business sentiment is improving". Approximately the same statements Lowey did before. Therefore, his today's speech did not bring surprises. The Australian dollar reacted with restraint to Lowey's speech. Nevertheless, the Australian dollar is rising against the US dollar, justifying Lowey's view that "the strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar". And, indeed, the US dollar remains under pressure, continuing to decline against its major counterparts. The dynamics of the dollar is not affected even by the macro statistics coming from the US, indicating an increase in inflation. So, on Thursday there were one more data, indicating the growth of inflationary pressure. The producer price index (PPI), reflecting changes in prices for goods and services of American companies, in January rose by 0.4%, which is the best result since April 2017. The consumer price index (CPI) released on Wednesday also surpassed expectations. The growth of consumer inflation in January was 2.1% (in annual terms). The CPI base index increased by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2017. According to economists, inflation will be above the target level of 2% this year already. The growth of inflation against the backdrop of a strong labor market and a stable state of the US economy gives the Fed a reason to tighten monetary policy more rapidly. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. Now many investors believe that the Fed can implement a 4-time rate increase this year. So, according to the CME Group, investors estimate a 21% chance of 4 rate increases this year. Earlier this week, such a probability was estimated at 17%. Nevertheless, the US dollar continues to scale down. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, fell on Friday to 88.18, the lowest level since December 2014, and at the beginning of the European session is near the mark of 88.35. Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of data on the housing market in the US for January, which may increase volatility in the US dollar. However, this statistic will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the US dollar. The US dollar remains under pressure due to profound fundamental changes in the global financial market. Investors seem to opt for more interesting and growing financial markets outside of the US, which forces them to buy assets and the national currency of countries with a fast-growing economy, in particular the Eurozone and Japan. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 0.7950, 0.7900, 0.7820, 0.7795, 0.7760, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330 Resistance levels: 0.7990, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 0.7940. Stop-Loss 0.8000. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7820, 0.7795, 0.7760 Buy Stop 0.8000. Stop-Loss 0.7940. Take-Profit 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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Brent: oil prices have corrected after a many-day fall 15/02/2018 Current dynamics Despite the fact that oil and oil products stocks in the US raised again last week, oil prices on Wednesday rose after a many-day drop from the level of $ 70.00 per barrel of Brent crude oil. At the beginning of the month, the oil market was under pressure amid a decline in world stock indices and an increase in oil production in the US. As reported on Wednesday in the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the US last week increased by 1.8 million barrels (the forecast was + 2.6 million barrels). The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported an increase in reserves of 3.9 million barrels. Brent crude at ICE went up $ 1.64 on Wednesday, or 2.6%, to $ 64.36 a barrel. Growth in oil prices on Wednesday also was contributed by the media reports that Saudi Arabia confirmed its commitment to the plan to limit the supply. "We believe that it is better for us to take redundant steps (to reduce supply) and ensure the restoration of the balance of the market", Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said at a press conference in Riyadh. In November, OPEC extended the deal to limit the offer until the end of 2018, and the cartel agreed to reevaluate the transaction in the middle of the year. The renewed weakening of the dollar and growth in stock exchanges also supports oil prices in the current situation. On Wednesday, the dollar showed a large decline after it published disappointing data on retail sales in the US in January. Despite the fact that inflation accelerated in January, retail sales in January fell by 0.3%, which was the strongest drop in almost a year (the forecast assumed growth of retail sales in January by 0.2%). After the publication of disappointing data on retail sales, economists lowered forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018. Based on the data presented this week, it can be concluded that the budget deficit and the deficit of US foreign trade are growing, and the risks of slowing GDP growth are also increasing. This could be an important factor that increases the Fed's predilection for maintaining a soft monetary policy. Nevertheless, on Friday, the oil market may again be under pressure if the data on the number of operating drilling rigs in the United States indicate the next increase in the number of installations, and, consequently, the growth of oil production. The weekly report from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US will be presented at 18:00 (GMT). At the moment, their number is 791 units. The positive dynamics of both the growth in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States and the volume of oil production prevails, which is a strong deterrent for the further growth of oil prices. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 64.00, 63.00, 61.50, 59.50, 56.50 Resistance levels: 64.85, 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00, 70.75 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 63.90. Stop-Loss 64.90. Take-Profit 63.00, 61.50, 59.50, 56.50 Buy Stop 64.90. Stop-Loss 63.90. Take-Profit 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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S&P500: on the eve of the publication of inflation data 14/02/2018 Current dynamics While investors are waiting for the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of important macro data from the US, US stock indexes continue to recover after a record fall in the previous two weeks. On the eve of the leading US indices for the third time in a row completed the trading in the market in positive territory. Among the data published at 13:30 the most important inflation indicators will be. So, it is expected that the basic inflation increased in January by 1.7% (in annual terms). If the forecast is justified, the stock indexes will continue to recover, but if inflation is higher, then tension will return to the markets. Probably, the best scenario for buyers of the assets of the stock market today will be weak inflation data and strong - on retail sales in the US. Moreover, according to many economists, even if the inflation data in the US prove to be strong, this will not change the negative attitude towards the dollar. Against this background, the recovery of the US stock market is likely to continue after today's publication of macro data. Against the backdrop of low inflationary pressures in 2017, US stock indexes reached new record highs. If inflation significantly exceeds forecasts, the Fed may need to increase interest rates four times in 2018. In this case, the stock markets have a chance to confirm the worst forecasts and resume the decline. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US bonds is growing again and is currently at the level of 2.842%, slightly below the 2.900% mark reached two days ago, the highest level in the last four years. With the increase in the yield of government bonds, the Fed is easier to raise interest rates. The most cautious traders today, perhaps, prefer to go into the cache. A surge in volatility in the financial markets is expected during the publication (13:30 GMT) of the data. Support levels: 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0 Resistance levels: 2682.0, 2723.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 2660.0. Stop-Loss 2688.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0 Buy Stop 2688.0 Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2723.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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DJIA: investors remain cautious 13/02/2018 Current dynamics On Monday, all three major US stock indexes rose for the second consecutive session, returning some of the losses incurred during the two previous weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 1.7% to 24601.00 points, the S&P500 - by 1.4% to 2,666.00 points, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6% to 6981.00 points. Earlier in the US, and after and in all world stock markets, there was a sharp collapse in the indices. So, S&P500 lost over 5% last week due to signs of strengthening inflation and higher yields on government bonds, and the volatility index CBOE, or VIX, rose by almost 70% in the whole week, jumping to a mark of 50.00, a record high after the crisis of 2008. The risks of a more rapid monetary policy tightening on the part of the Fed on the background of expectations of increased inflation provoked fluctuations in the stock markets over the past two weeks. Investors were also alarmed by the growth in the yield of US government bonds. Thus, the yield on 10-year US bonds on Monday reached new absolute highs near the 2.900% mark, the maximum values for the last four years. The increase in bond yields in early 2018 was one of the reasons for the decline in world stock markets. Profitability can grow even more on the background of the normalization of monetary policy and the further strengthening of the world economy. The growth of yield of government bonds facilitates the task of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The stock market would quietly transfer one or two rate hikes. Last year, the former head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, stated that an increase in the interest rate alone is not enough to turn the bull stock market, but that would be another confirmation of the strength of the US economy. Now buyers of risky assets of the stock market are confused, as a faster rate increase could slow or stop further growth of stock indices. Investors are still cautious after the sharp sales observed last week, and world stock markets are falling again on Tuesday. Nevertheless, US stock indices are above critical support levels. Despite the fluctuations, last week created opportunities for profitable purchases, according to optimistic investors. The principle of "buy on the rumor, sell on facts", it seems, can work and this time. At least, it has already worked in part - "sell on facts". *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 24050.0, 23800.0, 23200.0, 23000.0, 22450.0 Resistance levels: 24820.0, 25200.0 Trading Scenarios Buy Stop 24970.0. Stop-Loss 24240.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 26600.0 Sell Stop 24240.0. Stop-Loss 24970.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23800.0, 23200.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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S&P500: Investors are trying to understand the movements on the market 12/02/2018 Current dynamics The main US stock indexes today continued their recovery. By the beginning of today's European session, the US stock indexes about half recovered losses suffered last week, which became the worst in the past few years. The recovery began on Friday evening. Risks of faster monetary tightening by the Fed on the background of expectations of the intensification of inflation provoked fluctuations in the stock markets in the last two weeks. If inflation really increases, the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates faster in order to keep the situation under control and avoid hyperinflation. And this will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds, which may affect the growth of the market of more risky assets. After a brief consolidation of the indices at current levels, bears can undertake a new assault. The yield of 10-year US bonds is growing again, updating the absolute highs, and is at the beginning of today's European session near the 2.900% mark, the maximum level for the last four years. The yield of government bonds is growing, which makes it easier for the Fed to raise interest rates, which is a negative factor for the stock market. The CBOE volatility index, the so-called "Wall Street fear index," rose again on Friday to record values after the 2008 crisis, to the level of 41.00. Last Tuesday, this index jumped to the value of 50.00, which is much higher than the usual range, formed in recent months, between the marks of 9.00 and 19.00. Investors try to understand the sharp and deep movements taking place on the market in order to evaluate them either as a technical correction after prolonged growth, or as a result of a deeper reassessment of the financial situation. In the beginning of the week, investors will monitor the data on the state of the US budget (will be published on Monday 19:00 GMT), as well as on retail sales and consumer prices for January (on Wednesday 13:30 GMT), which could affect the dynamics of the US stock market. Also, as usual, on Thursday (13:30 GMT) weekly data from the US labor market will be published, namely, the number of primary (forecast - 237,000 against 221,000) and secondary applications for unemployment. The result higher than expected will indicate a weakening of the labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar in the short term. *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics Support levels: 2630.0, 2610.0, 2560.0, 2530.0 Resistance levels: 2695.0, 2730.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 Trading Scenarios Sell Stop 2618.0. Stop-Loss 2670.0. Objectives 2610.0, 2560.0, 2530.0 Buy Stop 2670.0 Stop-Loss 2618.0. Objectives 2695.0, 2730.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com