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Emerging Markets and Bonds Selloff Continues The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen reached a four-month high while both the bonds and the emerging market currencies are under pressure once again on Tuesday. There are looking for higher interest rates in expanding number of major economies. There are higher expectations as the MSCI world index is steadily progressing as it rose for a third day although it declined after the Europe stock market dropped. This staggered as the bonds yields from euro zone continued its uptrend in March but halted on Monday as the market turned its attention to the monetary tightening of large economies globally. The Federal Reserve aims to adjust the large collection of bonds to ease the financial crises where speeches were given on Wednesday while the both the ECB and BoE officials are scheduled to talk on Tuesday. They are divided on whether to proceed with a rate hike yet the overnight index swaps market are priced high and 80 percent probability for a second rate hike by the end of the year.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 11, 2017 The British pound attempted to soar against the Japanese yen but failed as it pulled back to the 147 level. The market has been advancing in the long term more like grinding and gain from small increments. It seems that the market is going to decline for any particular period of time since the Bank of Japan will most likely maintain its low borrowing rates for long-term. Whilst the Bank of England might increase its rates in near-term and after some time, the price could break towards the 150 level. Currently, it is a little bit over extended laterally that makes grinding a way to gain impetus and proceed to the upper channel for long-term. Buying dips would be an ideal to gain in short-term but restricted to not so good moves (20 to 30 pips is attainable). However, if it breaks lower than the 146 level then this could proceed lower towards the 145 handle which can be more supportive compared to the areas being tested as of the moment. It may be a bit difficult to trade the GBP/JPY pair yet the market signals that they favor the uptrend. Hence, it is best to hold shorting this pair especially since the 150 is being strongly resistive. However, if this has been gapped, the market could rally much higher for an extended period. For now, the short-term profits in the market could get bigger once it gains momentum but it still requires more patience to trade this pair in the market.

Qatar Stays Strong With $340 billion Reserves in QCB Qatar holds reserves worth $340 billion that could prop up the country despite being secluded by its powerful Arab neighbors according to its central bank governor Sheikh Abdullah Bin Saoud al-Thani. He has confidently said that they could weather shocks with their sufficient reserves. In particular, the central bank has $40 billion reserves including gold and Qatar’s Investment Authority sovereign wealth fund keeps $300 billion in reserves that can be utilized for liquidation. Qatari stocks have declined and its currency has volatility in trading the spot market when neighboring countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates cut its diplomatic ties with the country as it was accused of fostering terrorism. However, Doha repudiated this recrimination. Although there have been outflows from foreign investors, these did not have much of an effect. The strength of the Qatari riyal is highly dependent on the U.S. dollar which is anticipated to continue as he said. Also, the long-term contracts for the gas and oil sectors were not disrupted. Moody’s rating adjusted its outlook of Qatar’s credit rating back to stable following its negative rating but there are still risks from the political dispute with other Arab countries. Nevertheless, the country has taken some countermeasures to face the crisis.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017 The main trend of the AUD/USD pair in the daily swing chart is moving in an uptrend. However, the momentum is pushing it to go lower. When the trade exceeds the .7712, this will shift the main trend to move up. A trade at the .7571 level indicates the continuation of the downtrend and possibly towards the minor base at .7535 region. A breakdown to this level will shift the course of the minor trend to go down. The main trend range between .7372 and .7712 with a retracement level at .7542 and .7502 as the next lower target. With the uptrend of the market, the buyers will most likely return to the test zone. For short-term, the range is between .7712 and .7571 with the retracement area at .7642 and .7658 which is the next upside target. Sellers might counter the trend belligerently and attempt to create a secondary lower top in the next test. The closing during Friday was positioned at .7600, similar to the price movement this morning. The direction of the AUD/USD pair highly depends on the trader’s sentiment to the downtrend angle at .7592. When the .7592 is held, this signifies the presence of buyers in the market and could further go up with the potential targets at .7632, .7642, .7632 and .7658 levels. On the other hand, when the .7592 level is kept steady, this indicates the presence of sellers. The target level when the price moves to the downside with the initial target at .7571 then .7542 to .7535 levels. Traders should monitor the angle at .7592. The reaction of traders will determine if buyers will enter the market or sellers will put in a selling pressure instead.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017 The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed. The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollar’s weakness. As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K. As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fed’s decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.

Oil Recovered As Bonds Progressed Oil improved after a sharp decline and both of the European stocks and bonds were in the red on Thursday as the market awaits for the ECB minutes. This would determine the next actions of the central bank. Although, the Fed Reserve showed mixed signals on Wednesday. Bond yields climbed higher again as the benchmark of U.S. Treasuries rose more than 2.34 percent which increased the global borrowing rates. The market was caught in between the ambiguous results from FOMC minutes and the U.S. employment statistics on Friday. The beginning of G20 summit has been the center of attention after the long-range missile test this week launched by the North Korea.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 6, 2017 The EURUSD rebounded from its session lows after the release of FOMC minutes which indicates rising concerns of Fed officials regarding the drop in inflation accelerating. The pair buoyed due to stronger data showed by the EU PMI and Retail Sales. Peter Praet from the European Central Bank strongly suggests to be leery and patient and take it slow in changing the monetary policy. The pair further bounced around the support level 1.1318 close to the 10-day moving average. The resistance approached the 1.1444 region around the June highs. The momentum on the euro-dollar pair came in neutral while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints near the zero index level. The index constitutes a flat trajectory pointing towards consolidation.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 5, 2017 The euro-dollar pair resumed its downfall while the U.S. yields were able to make further progress on the back of the stronger-than-expected result of the ISM Manufacturing report issued on Monday. The US market was closed on Tuesday due to Independence Day holiday, however, there are few catalysts that stimulate the EURUSD amid balance of the week which includes the United States’ Payroll report on Friday. The pair headed lower and bound to test the support close to the 10-day moving average found at 1.129. The exchange rate eased from the 1.14 handle which is considered the 1-year high and stayed around 1.1350 region near the peaks of August 2016. The resistance highlighted the 1.1444 mark. Momentum came in neutral while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints in the black linked with a flat trajectory which suggests some consolidation.

Central Bank of Denmark Probable Membership in E.U. Banking Union The central bank of Denmark has taken into account on a positive note its participation to the European Union's banking union. The government has decided to launch a review according to the central bank on Tuesday. This is a significant step from the country as the focus which would be the could lead to a final decision when the Brexit has already been concluded come autumn of 2019. At the same time, this would help the Nordic country in consideration as the financial center.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 04, 2017 The British pound against the U.S. dollar has had a difficult trading session yesterday as the dollar is starting to recover in the market as the week starts. Several data are expected to come out from the U.S. as traders are anticipating these data to be supporting the greenback. In view of this, this commences the week in a great start especially for the U.S. dollar that dollar bulls could take advantage of and could further get better until the holiday but could proceed into consolidation prior to the resurgence of the volatility tomorrow. The cable has had trouble following the bad data from the U.K. when the Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations. Although, the Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. came in stronger. These added pressure to the GBP/USD pair and promote the pair to get lower at 1.30 up to 1.29 level. Currently, the pair is hovering strongly close to the resistance region in 1.3030 which seems to be similar to yesterday’s forecast. Moreover, the pair climbed uphill at a quicker pace where a correction won’t be surprising to happen. The market sentiment is becoming stronger that the BOE would hike rates sooner which is also supported by the central bank as it is hawkish over the past month. Governor Carney is saying that the pound has surpassed the obstacle and a hawkish decision would be beneficial for the pound. More expectantly, the employment data from the U.S. are assumed to come out positively which could raise the option for another rate hike from the Fed soon. It is intriguing on the how next week will turn out as the pound and the dollar would fight off on which will be priced higher than the other. For today, the Construction PMI data from the U.K is expected to be published while the U.S. in a holiday that offsets the volatility and the liquidity in the market with low trading activities. It is reasonable to expect consolidation in the market.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 03, 2017 The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved laterally during the Friday session. It proceed to grind close to the 112 level and if the market is successful in breaking higher than the peak of the range for the day, the next move of the market would be towards 113 handle. Buyers continue to jump in the market following the dovish decision of the Bank of Japan regarding its monetary policy. Any pullback cannot be a telltale sign of a downtrend, not until a break lower than the 110 region has been achieved to determine if the potential uptrend has ended.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017 The New Zealand currency experienced a volatile session during Wednesday's trading reaching the downtrend line shown in the weekly timeframe, and eventually, break down. A position under the 0.73 handle indicates a slightly bearish tone, but, the longer-term market attempts to establish an adequate pressure to accomplish a breakout. The downtrend line is important as the commodity markets do not offer any help towards the NZD. Having said that, performing a breakout might be difficult however when doing so, it should be massive as it touches the level 0.75 in short order. Alternatively, it is also possible to breakdown but it requires a gap under the 0.7250 region to be conference since that area is considered to be a “lower low” The NZDUSD pair endured an extreme volatility in the last few sessions suggests the previous situation within the Forex market in general. The Kiwi dollar is known to be the least liquid among major pair that’s why we normally see lots of noise. The current level of 0.73 is basically a “fair value” for the pair, hence, short-term traders would likely resume moving from side to side around that territory. In the longer-term, a confirmation in order to complete the breakout is necessary even for bullish traders, as a means to put money to play within a really choppy market. In case that, agricultural futures gained higher value this would mean that the NZ dollar will receive some support. But it appeared that traders’ attention is focused on the current situation of the interest rate.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017 The currency pair EUR/USD had broken out and expected to resume its upward movement while inflation data appeared to be stronger than anticipated that lead the European yields higher. The yield differential currently moves to the side of EU yields that paved the way for the single European currency to gain higher. Confidence further surges on its renewed decade highs while consumer lending also increased. Most of the headlines from the United States came in better than expected, however, American yields are following its EU counterparts that put pressure to USD. The pair broke out through its fresh 1-year peaks over the resistance at 1.1365 around highs of August 2016 while trying to test 1.1616 level near May 2016 peaks. The support reached 1.1365 mark which is a previous resistance, followed by the 10-day moving average seen at 1.1148 region. The pair’s momentum became positive when the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) produced a crossover buy signal. It was generated due to spread that crosses on top of the 9-day moving average. The histogram shifted from negative to positive zone and confirmed a buy signal. The index prints in the black with an ascending trajectory indicating a higher exchange rate.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 29, 2017 The AUDUSD had rallied on Wednesday, however, found an adequate resistance around the 0.7625 handle to conduct a reversal and slide through the 0.7580 region. Another rebound from that point will touch the 0.7650 eventually. The Australian currency has the potential to continue getting buyer’s attention and as of this writing, pullbacks are favorable for the possible value it contains. The market is driving towards 0.7750 region which is very resistive and this is an area where attracted much attention on longer-term charts. Having said that, a slice on top of that level will appear to be bullish sending the market near 0.80 handle, which is an attractive area over a long period since both weekly and monthly trading charts had mentioned that 0.0 level is significant. Moreover, the risk appetite could weigh against the Australian currency for it was able to gain strength when market participants are optimistic to commodities together with global improvement in general. On the other hand, the U.S. dollars is certainly a safe currency that tends to take up value and volume even if the market manifest quite scary trends. At the end of the day, the gold further placed pressure to Aussie and when the rally starts, the AUD will then obtain some support. It is recommended to look for explosive moves both in metal markets and AUD. The volatile market would remain but the short-term dips will also provide a beneficial value while establishing a larger position. Taking part with binary options is one of the better way to go.

IMF Cuts Growth Forecast for US Economy The International Monetary Fund watered down its economic outlook for the United States due to the high level of risk regarding the plans of current president Donald Trump in boosting growth in the economy. According to their forecast, U.S will gain an annual rate of 2.1 percent for this year which is a positive increase compared with 1.6 percent recorded in 2016, however, it is comparatively lower to 2.3 percent estimate on April. The Washington-based organization also cut its forecast for 2018 saying that the country will have a hard time in reaching the 3 percent target determined in the first budget of the president. The latest growth numbers are part of the annual review made by the IMF to the American economy which is released on June 27. Report says the forecast was trimmed down because it was clearly stated that various parts regarding the expenditure project and administration tax are still ambivalent. With these concerns, the institution said that the final decision is made in order to abate any assumptions concerning the programs of Trump will get the Congress approval and rather to work with predictions that ongoing policies will remain consistent. Based on IMF’s projections, the yearly GDP growth is 2.1 percent for 2017 and 2018 and this will decrease by 1.9 percent by 2019 while in the year 2020 it will only reach 1.8 percent.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 28, 2017 The EUR/USD was able to jump higher due to hawkish remarks of ECB head, Draghi coupled with the events happened in the United States that caused the greenbacks to weaken in general during Wednesday’s trading. The pair gained more than 160 pips in the past 24 hours and ultimately, the bullishness lasted in the past few weeks become apparent. During the first part of the day, the pair had a usual day spending time under the 1.12 level consolidating. Followed by the statement of Draghi, who frequently not discuss monetary policy on his speeches, however, this happened yesterday that moved that market. The European Central Bank is regarded to have a bearish stance but the strong data in the previous months that forced the bank to change their stand. Recently, M. Draghi mentioned his best indication regarding changes in track and stated that there is a likelihood that the central bank would start the tapering of QE very soon. This seems to be very hawkish for the European currency and the underlying strength aided the pair in pushing higher touching the 1.1250 level above. A short interruption occurred prior the 1.13 area that acts like a wall in the past months and has the potential to stop the pair within that point and conduct another reversal. Nonetheless, there are reports about the delay in the US healthcare reform bill due to diverging ideas coming from the Republicans per se. This event caused the USD to lose its strength in general due to worries regarding the policy paralysis in the US that was triggered once again. It further leads the pair across the region 1.13 above and trading comfortably as of this writing. Previous forecasts say that every last week of the each month will probably witness high volatility and this has been proven right. We expect today for another statement from the head of ECB with an anticipation to talk about fiscal policy again and if he does not mention this or anything that contradicts his comments, the pair will remain to move upwards as it was far away from the 1.13 resistance.

Sluggish Growth Prediction for Developed Countries A U.S. central banker forewarned that advanced economies and financial institutions in the United States will face a slower economic growth for long-term unless fiscal officials do something to counter this. Although, this comes surprisingly since the Federal Reserve just increased its interest rates earlier this month and intend to do more rate hikes gradually to prevent overheating of the economy. This also indicates positive growth of the economic outlook. Federal Reserve president John Williams said that this optimism will only last for short-term and will change over time. With the sluggish growth, this gives a hard time for monetary policymakers to curb inflation and sustain full employment. This leaves the central bank with no choice but to rate hike since low growth trims the demand for investment and further push down the interest rates.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 27, 2017 The EURUSD is trading sideways during Monday’s session, however, met the resistance level at 1.12. A breakdown below that point and touched under the region 1.1175, then spotted a slightly bullish pressure. A cut through on top of the 1.12 handle and a pulled back from that point will see for another support. With this, the pair is inclined to continue its ascending trend or maybe tried to touch the 1.13 mark in the longer term. Volatility is still high in the market which would likely cause the single European currency to remain a market that is not easy to trade with, therefore, buying is our only choice. The “fair value” is found at the 1.12 area and this point should be maintained. Buyers are starting to dominate the market, and there is no reason to stop moving near the 1.13 mark again. It is possible that the market will continue to provide lots of buying opportunities on the dips in the short-term at least. The market appeared to be crucial when imposing a sell signal unless we break the region under 1.1170. Ability to breakdown will lead the market towards 1.1125 handle. A cut through over 1.13 mark, the market will drive going to the top of 1.15 range which is a strong barrier as indicated on the longer-term charts. As consolidation between the bottom of 1.05 and top of 1.15 continues in the past three years.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 23, 2017 The USD/CAD pair has returned to its downtrodden price action as the Canadian economy released some very dismal data on the back of a steadily dropping oil prices. The currency pair was unable to surpass the very critical trading range of 1.3300-1.3330 points, thus stopping it from making any advancements towards 1.3500 and instead caused the currency pair to return to its downtrending price direction. With the present state of the currency pair, it is now evident that the USD/CAD pair will be unable to make any decisive rebounds at least for the time being. The Canadian economy continues to throw some consistently good economic data, signaling that the country’s economic outlook remains on the positive. All this, including a highly positive retail sales data from the region could increase the chances of the Bank of Canada implementing an interest rate hike before the end of 2017. The central bank had previously hinted of this possibility a few weeks ago, and this further added to the downward pressure on the loonie. Oil prices have also managed to hold their ground in spite of its continuously weak outlook, with this oil prices the only thing stopping the USD/CAD pair to go full on with regards to completing its downturn. As of now, the USD/CAD pair is still continuing with its downtrend and if this further progresses, then the loonie will possibly reach 1.3100-1.3000 in the short term period. For today’s trading session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data, and if this turns out to be positive as well, then this could enable the USD/CAD to drop further towards 1.3100 points.

US Stocks Plunge after Brent Crash The majority of US stock prices crashed on the back of an ever-worsening bout of slump on both industrial and oil shares, eclipsing recent price rallies caused by growth in biotech and aviation technology companies. Brent crude prices dropped to just under $45 per barrel and is now at par with WTI in terms of living with a highly bearish market as US stockpiles continue to be above average and Libya resumes its production. The US dollar also subsequently dropped in value while US Treasury yields did not exhibit any major changes after it was able to regain its losses.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017 The Australian currency attempted to initiate a rally amid the day and reversed to sell off. The 0.7575 mark was being tested due Aussie’s actions, hence, it provides a significant amount of support. In case that a breakdown occurred beyond that point, the market will be pushed down through 0.7550 region which is an interesting area in the past. The market will keep on reaching the 0.765 handle when a bounce happen and when it break into the upside will drove near the region 0.7750. At the end of the day, the market will continue following its risk appetite and traders should watch closely what will happen within that point. The central bank of New Zealand is expected to release a statement about interest rates scheduled today while the Aussie dollar will seek the same path. Moreover, gold markets remain to be in a downbeat which can be felt by the AUD as well. With this, players should search for a support below prior the rebound. As the market still have challenging nature to deal with because of the many bits and pieces moving around, particularly the plan of the Fed Reserve to increase rates. Above all, the pressure brought by the precious metal, gold paired with the general outlook on risk tolerance is projected to wrought a chaotic situation over the market. In this event, it is complicated to determine where to go next as the consolidation is anticipated to keep going.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 20, 2017 The USD/CAD pair continues to consolidate within its range lows as the loonie makes another attempt to recover its losses and possibly trigger a bounce in its value. Now that the Bank of Canada is more than eager to help the Canadian economy make a 360-degree turn, the pair’s bulls will be in for a hard time as it tries to induce any kind of price bounce. Should the pair manage to create a bounce, then this should be viewed as a selling opportunity and should not be taken as a trend adjustment. On the other hand, oil prices are still trading within its bottom rungs and remains weak as of the moment, however the CAD seems to be unaffected by this and has still managed to look very positive and has remained trading in a very positive manner. The CAD will only be able to gain some measure of short-term strength if the oil prices will be able to recover in the short run, and if this happens, then the USD/CAD pair might be able to make a substantial attempt to go beyond the critical range of 1.3000 points. The currency pair has weakened significantly ever since it surpassed 1.3500, with this region signalling a trend shift. The fact that the currency pair is still doing very well in spite of a drop in oil prices and dollar strength just goes to show how much of a change has happened within the price action of the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the economic releases from the Canadian economy has showed consistently positive readings, with the BoC announcing its plans to help keep the country’s economy on the upside. For today’s trading session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy, and the USD/CAD pair is expected to range and consolidate on both directions of 1.3200 points.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017 The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen climbed higher during the Friday session. There is a massive resistance found in the 11.40 level to reverse the trend followed by a decline. A neutral candle is formed for the day although the market is trying to gain momentum as they are trying to recover following the drastic move in the upside on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is being hawkish more than expected which is favorable for the greenback since the Bank of Japan moves contradictorily when it comes to monetary policy. The 110 region remains supportive which would most likely become the floor of the market. For now, it is advisable to short this pair to take advantage of its short-term decline and rendering more support for every short-term credit. This is still not finite and the trend could decline anytime although the next move would most likely be in the upside reflecting the impulsiveness of the market. Hence, buying is much more practical in the current market condition. The initial next target would be at 112 then 112.50 level. For long-term, the trend could reach as high as 115 region although it might take longer to achieve this. There is also a tendency for the pair to be volatile which is not surprising. It is good to trade this pair in the current market as it could also benefit the greenback traded against the yen since the BOJ is dovish and most likely continue for a longer period of time.