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Andrea ForexMart

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  1. EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 8, 2017 The US payrolls data came in stronger than expected on Friday which buoyed the greenbacks and reacquires some of its gains yesterday. The German Industrial production unexpectedly declined but was able to maintain the single European currency. The move made by the administration of Donald Trump relative to tax incentives help the dollar to bolster and must sustain the interest rates. The inflation in the eurozone and the United States is expected to be released on Friday, this further support trader to determine whether growth will overrun inflation outlook. The EURUSD edged a little bit higher yesterday and bounced off the support at 1.1774 region near the 10-day moving average. The resistance entered the 1.1910 level around the highs last week. The momentum of the euro-dollar pair became negative while the MACD histogram developed a crossover sell signal. This appeared due to the spread that crosses under the 9-day moving average of the spread. The indicator jumped from positive to negative zone and confirmed a sell signal. The index prints in the red with a descending trajectory pointing to lower prices for the EURUSD.
  2. EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2017 The results of the European yields were mixed as it restricted the uptrend of the euro which signifies that Draghi has successfully kept the rates low. The ECB sees the need for the continuous support because of the less than expected result of the PMI. The European retail sales set in stronger than anticipated but this was countered by high jobless claims. The EUR/USD was not able to surpass yesterday’s range but was able to increase the support level. Nevertheless, the trend persists to be positive with the support close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1747. The resistance level is seen close to the weekly highs at 1.1910. Overall, the momentum is optimistic with the MACD histogram shown a black indicator with an upward sloping direction that could lead to a higher exchange rate. The RSI positioned higher with the price indicating a positive momentum upward. Currently, the price is set at 77 which is higher than the trigger level 70 to enter the overbought area. Hence, a correction is possible to occur.
  3. GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017 The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD. The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark. This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions. The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.
  4. GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2017 There is high volatility during the Tuesday session as it reached the 1.3250 level but was reversed later on. It seems that the 1.32 level is being supportive as the trend proceed moving higher. A break lower would push the market for a support towards 1.3150 level then to 1.31 level. The British pound is going to be sensitive to a lot of noise which is anticipated as amid the negotiations from the European Union and the United Kingdom. Hence, traders should be cautious of the of any abrupt changes in this pair. The bullishness could persist for the long term. Although, this has been quite extended in the present time. A pullback opens more opportunity to make use of the current value. The market could target for a 1.3450 level above which the peak of the consolidation for the past few months. However, if the market successfully gaps higher than the 1.3450 level, the next retest would be at 1.35 handle. A breakout would mean large bullish tone but it will not be long before the currency starts to rally once again. There will be high volatility from the start until this period ends.
  5. USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 31, 2017 The USD/CAD was able to obtain the highly-needed bounce on Thursday, which was previously mentioned since the week started. It is followed by the decline of the pair in the past few weeks because of the strong level in which the pair sits together with the possibility that this region is the buyer’s final stand. As the strength of the dollar recovered, it helped the pair to soar high and affirmed lot of things in the following days. However, there is already a warning that the downward will be very intact and needed much time to return. It is also mentioned that bears will use any bounce from the commodity-linked pair as an opportunity to sell prices highers. Any hints of recovery seen on Friday had plunged conclusively while the USDCAD appeared to be weak as usual. The sluggish stance was triggered by the GDP figures of Canada and the United States. But the US data showed a marginally better than expected, while the Thursday’s data from the US prompted the market to have higher expectations from the gross domestic product. On one side, the Canadian GDP came in very strong and able to have another rate increase soon. This led to a reversal of the whole trend since yesterday and the pair lies in below the 1.24 level which might become weaker. Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases either from US or Canada. Therefore, consolidation is safely expected together with ranging of the dollar which is at disadvantage because of the developments over the White House during weekends. Furthermore, it is predicted the USDCAD to remain in pressured area as the markets look forward to a plenty of data expected in the latter part of the week.
  6. EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 31, 2017 The Euro against the British pound surged during the Friday session although there some resistance found close to the 0.8960 level. The market had a roll over for the few hours but was limited by the resistance level. There is much support found below that proceeds to market higher. The next target would the 0.90 level and if the price breaks more and pushes the price towards 0.92 level for long-term. The 0.89 level below persists to be supportive that makes a breakdown far to happen. As shown in the weekly chart, the market sees the 0.89 level to be the support level. Traders proceed to buy on the lows as it persists in supporting the euro currency. A breakout of both currencies occurred against the U.S. dollar although the market favors the euro more which is reflected in the pair. After some time, there is a lot of volatility in the market directed upward. Shorting this pair may not be ideal but the once the price breaks higher than the 0.90 level. Buyers will turn more hostile as the psychological level of resistance. However, if the price gaps below the 0.89 level which is extraordinarily bearish that would adjust the short-term trend.
  7. Japan Household Spending Grew 2.3% in June Japan’s household expenditure in the previous month accelerated most in 2015 since the available jobs heightened to its fresh 43-year highs. This shows that as the labour market tightens, it helps push wages and consumer spending up in a gradual pace. Last week, the BOJ retained its monetary policy, however, pushed back again to reach its price goal, underlining the gap between the weak inflation and steady growth. And further emphasized that it may take some time to scale down its massive stimulus. The Japanese economy grew at an annualized 1.0 percent earlier this year, indicating a consecutive growth for the fifth time on strong exports and expansion in personal consumption. According to analysts, the domestic demand is the main driver for a sustained growth in net exports but would probably reduce growth in GDP for the second quarter. The positive signs for household consumption consist of 60 percent of the economy and gained 2.3 percent in the year until June, that jumped for the first time after 16 months and acquired the largest annual gain in August 2015. While the median estimate of the economists is 0.6 percent which is further based on the polled data of Reuters by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications issued on Friday. Moreover, the retail sales gained 2.1 percent in the year to June as shown in another set of data.
  8. Growth in UK Film Industry Lift Economy in Q2 The British economy was able to accelerate slightly during the second quarter after a lackluster growth at the beginning of 2017. The little speed of Britain is driven by the services sector and the breakthrough in the film industry, as indicated in the official data showed on Wednesday. This quarter gained 0.3 percent growth compared with the 0.2 percent recorded in the Q1, the results could possibly trigger expectations that the Bank of England will maintain the interest rates steady next week with a record low level. In 2016, the economy of Britain increased by 1.8 percent which is the fastest, compared with other seven largest major advanced economies in the world, regardless of the rampant projections about recession after the Brexit vote. However, the referendum caused an extensive decline towards the value of the pound and moved the inflation up, gnawed at the disposable income of consumer this year. The services sector alone is the economic growth driver for the Q2 and supported the retailers, motion picture activities and hotels and restaurants. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the fast-growing film industry of UK rose by 72 percent on 2014, which likely raise tax credits proposed by the former finance minister George Osborne. Moreover, the movies released from April to June also helped. On Monday, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2017 economic forecast for the United Kingdom, showing predictions of 1.7 percent expansion versus with the 2.0 percent earlier estimate. But foresees a decline to 1.5 percent next year.
  9. IMF Cut Growth Forecast for US Economy The International Monetary Fund downgraded its growth outlook for the United States due to concerns regarding Trump’s capacity to carry out his promises to the economy to stir the American economy. Although the Washington-based organization provided a positive forecast in April, they had trim it down to 2.1 percent for this year and based on earlier projections for 2018, the US economy will gain 2.3 and 2.5 percent growth. While the global growth was held at 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent for the next year according to the prediction of IMF managing director Christine Lagarde and described it as "quite well anchored". However, based on the World Economic Update, the IMF mentioned about the uncertainty towards the policies of President Donald Trump since it is a major factor in the leery growth projections for the US. Pres. Donald Trump got the presidential position six months ago, citing his plans about tax reductions, looser regulation and major infrastructure spending which triggered a rally on Wall Street. But the policies were stalled in the US Congress as the government continues to battle over other issues, like health care reform.
  10. EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 25, 2017 The yields across the eurozone weakened while the US dollar make further progress and the 10-year bund yields moved lower at 0.50% as the spreads of the euro area narrowed, following the sluggish results of the PMI readings based on the doubts of M.Draghi to get involve with the QE tapering. The fresh dip in long yields influenced the EURUSD, however, the remarks from Mersch yesterday verified the postponement and not the cancellation of the QE. Moreover, the ECB will reduce the volume of its asset-buying program which is expected to start earlier in 2018. The euro-dollar pair rallied to its renewed 23-month high around 1.1694 level and headed lower amid the balance of the trading hours to close the day. The support for the pair entered the 1.1523 region that is near the 10-day moving average. The resistance reached the 1.1717 mark near the highs of August 2015. The momentum is still positive as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index prints in the black linked with an ascending trajectory and seen pointing to a higher exchange rate.
  11. EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017 Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region. In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region. As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.
  12. The current Money Fall contest has already started on July 24, 2017 and will end on July 28, 2017. You can register for the next competition which will take place from July 31, 2017 to August 4, 2017 Note: Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.
  13. Major Central Banks Policies Turn Hawkish Forecast There is a big expectation for major central banks not to implement easing of monetary policy despite of small hints in the momentum of inflation as shown in the poll from Reuters. At the same time, it implies that there is a momentum on analysts particularly to Europe, India, and China that represents about 40 percent of the total population worldwide. They predicted that the global economy will get improve rather than “worse” next year. Although, there is still economic risks amid a decade of monetary stimulus has passed and aggregated asset purchases for a total of $15 trillion. Growth forecast has improved to 3.6 percent in 2018 from the current 3.5 percent for 2017. Yet, inflation prediction is declined than last year were greater than half of the central banks polled are foreseen to cut rates or tighten it. In September, the Fed is presumed to curtail its $4 trillion worth of portfolio bonds and rate hike for the third time by the last quarter of the year while the European Central Bank plans to tighten its monetary policy after an “ultra-easy” policy actions rooted on the progress of the economic growth.
  14. USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017 The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session followed by a breakdown towards 112 level. It further goes down towards the 111.50 region where sellers are anticipated to be seen. The 111 level offers sufficient support although the “real” support is found around the 110 handle. This area is presumed to have a buying pressure while the short-term sellers will persist on pushing the price down. As long as it stays over the 112.50 region, the sellers will have the leverage. If the market successfully breaks above the said level, the trend could be reversed and reach towards the 113 handle. A break above it would then push the price towards 114 level. The 112 level is a significant level in this chart and the market will persist to be highly volatile. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar will be at a disadvantage because of interest rate issue. Overall, the market will proceed with a selloff as the trend rallies. For the long term, buyers can be seen close to the 110 handle in consideration of technical outlook. Volatility will remain which is usually the case and the pair will persist to be highly sensitive to the major news will be released from the Federal Reserve. It is possible to for both buyers and sellers to get what they want after some time. There are different positions possible for various traders as the volatility picks up in the market.
  15. ECB Expected to Hold Interest Rates on Thursday The head of European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi is possible to make a soft step since the ECB give way for stopping the monetary stimulus efforts on Thursday. Experts assumed it will almost certainly happen that the bank will begin to trim down its €60 billion (US$69 billion) worth of monthly bond purchases, following the initial termination schedule in December. However, they are not expectant that Draghi will provide the blueprint for the exit during the news conference on Thursday. The central bank is predicted to maintain its interest benchmark at zero and further clarification on the timeline for stimulus withdrawal is anticipated at the meeting on September 7. Moreover, the markets had an intense reaction, sending support for the single European currency to move higher and reached US$1.15 initially since May last year while the bond prices decline. This quick decision reflects that there are still some market players that remains not yet ready for the stimulus to end. For this played a major role in buoying the economy of the eurozone through controlling the interest rates. The market reaction triggered the “taper tantrum” which is accompanied by a speech from Ben Bernanke, head of US Federal Reserve, in May 2013.
  16. GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 19, 2017 The British currency against the U.S. dollar had a correction during Tuesday session. The pair dropped towards 1.3030 level bringing the trend in a weaker position on Friday after the inflation data came out with negative data. The pair is now on a crucial condition which will presumably persist in the upcoming trading sessions. The pair could break above the region to move forward in short-term. In the past few weeks, it is notable that the economic data from the UK did not meet expectations. This opposes the trend by the start of the year when the U.K. data has been impressive and exceeded expectations amid of political and economic problems brought by the Brexit negotiation. The BoE has been anxious regarding the monetary policies including rate hikes in the future and the economic data has a vital role in the decision-making process. Hence, negativity in the data would make them be irresolute. The GBP/USD pair was able to brush aside issues on weak data and Brexit concerns in the past few weeks due to the low dollar in the market. Moreover, BoE reinforces this and adds more pressure. However, if the dollar steadies, the attention will go back to the BoE and the economic data unless both works side by side. On the other hand, this would be more complicated for the pound bulls. For today, there are no major new from Britain or from the United States. Choppiness is anticipated to carry on close to the 1.3050 region since the trend is now in consolidation and ranges.
  17. UK Economy Slowed Down As Consumer Spending Decline The British economy is expected to slow down this year, following its slowest pace since 2012 considering the fact that the citizens of Britain had cut back due to increasing inflation, based on the latest predictions that could wreak an impact towards consumer spending. The annual GDP growth is projected to decline by 1.5 percent this year and 1.4 percent next year because of the stumbling demand shown on the forecasts of accountants PwC. The growing cost of day-to-day products dropped as 2017 started on the back of strong expenditure that mold the economy into a much better shape during the end of 2016 compared with the outlook of well-known economist for the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. Nevertheless, the effects of the sharp downturn in the pound value after the EU exit triggered for the inflation surge which is 0.5 percent only in June 2016 through 2.9 percent in May. The most recent inflation data will be issued this morning as the PwC projected that it will keep on the average of 2.9 percent up to 2018. According to the new forecast, the growth for private expenditure fell to 1.5 percent which is a significant downward revision made by PwC during earlier estimates on March that expects 2 percent consumption growth. The Office for National Statistics said that the consumption expenditure gained 1.7 percent growth in 2016.
  18. GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017 The British currency slightly weakened on Monday as traders returned to the market. The market is trying to re-enter the break out level to look for additional buyers. This is because of the “profit collecting” in the near-term. Moreover, we can take advantage by searching for a bounce. The 1.30 region would likely be offering lots of support which is previously known to be resistive. The US dollar has recently become competitive and it looks like it will resume because of the tightening policy of the Fed Reserve which seems to be slightly firm than expected. The sterling was oversold for the past few months which led the people to conclude that the British exit isn’t that critical. However, it doesn’t mean that this will not undermine the British economy or maybe the market just reacted exaggeratedly with regards to the vote. Having said that, the market would still continue to search for more buyers for the pound and the next goal can be found above the consolidation area which was previously part of 1.3450 level. It does not necessarily mean that it would be so easy and will acquire some pullbacks because the market remains to be volatile but there are longer-term buyers who start collecting GBP since it has lower cost in the past. When the economy of Britain was able to fully recover, the GBP will depreciate hence many traders will find a way to raise the value of one of the world’s strongest economies.
  19. EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 17, 2017 The Euro against the U.S. dollar puts its high levels at risk following poor data results on Friday that boosted the pair. The dollar has been negatively positioned in the past few weeks to take advantage of any kind of recovery. The NFP results put a high data keeping hopes up that this would result in a reversal because of the U.S. economic data and anticipated to recover the dollar but it did not happen. In the previous week, the dollar has kept a sustained decline but the market is focused on Yellen and late data released on Friday. Yellen’s speech was not as expected and she was not concerned with her less hawkish speech which will further place the dollar in a difficult situation. Hence, the dollar bulls will have to rely on the Friday data to appeal for traders to buy since Yellen could not support the dollar. Furthermore, both the retail sales data and the CPI data has failed expectation which has worsened the situation. The retail sales came in with weakened growth while the CPI data came in at 0.1% compared to the anticipated value of 0.2% that pulled the dollar growth down and pushed the EUR/USD pair up. A steeper correction level is hoped for but the lackluster growth of the U.S. economic data raises concern and the next rate hike would depend on the next reports. Yet, the next rate increase will most likely not happen in the short-term. For today, there is no major news from the Eurozone as well as in the U.S. which in effect, will continue the market sentiment on Friday. Nevertheless, traders should get ready for the week ahead.
  20. The current contest has already started on July 17, 2017 and will end on July 21, 2017. You can register for the next competition which will take place from July 24, 2017 to July 28, 2017 Note: Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.
  21. Yellen Assessed US Economy Growth Target Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday that the 3 percent target of the current administration of Trump is “quite challenging” to cope with. US President Donald Trump pledged during his campaign in 2016 to improve the economic growth by 4 percent, however, the officials trimmed it down to 3 percent and claimed that it might take some time to complete. Moreover, Yellen mentioned that is "very disappointing," and gave a forewarning that the potential growth of the American economy is now lowered to 2 percent. The chairwoman was asked if it's still possible for the country to gain its three percent goal in the next five years and she answered, "I think it would be quite challenging." She further stated that higher growth rate requires a great increase in productivity growth which is currently at 0.5 percent, hence, an extreme surge is needed to accelerate and at least few points are regarded as significant. During the second day of her semi-annual testimony, she said to the Senate Banking Committee that the 3 percent expansion would be wonderful and she’d love to witness it. The incumbent Chair of the Board is scheduled to end her term on February 3, 2018, if President Trump did not reappoint her for another 4-year term. Yellen also underlined the things that hamper productivity growth which is related to the dilemma of company reports about looking for qualified laborer, emphasizing the urgency to focus on training worker and further education.
  22. EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017 Despite the fact that EUR/USD appeared to be volatile and fluctuates continuously and when we zoom out the trends viewed on the daily scale, we can see that the euro-dollar pair is trading in a quite tight range in the past couple of days. Apparently, the pair is bullish but a move over the 1.1450 region a few days ago, correct back towards that level and it trades on top of 1.14 mark as of this writing. Failure to move beyond the level 1.1450, despite the weakening of the US dollar previously, should still be considered by the bulls. As they are expectant that the EURUSD will remain to trend upwards when it cleared the resistive region at 1.1430. Yet, there’s no any movement happened and the pair trades under the broken resistance as of this moment. As the euro bulls spent more time in managing their move, it provides a greater chance that dollar bullishness may eventuate and then trimmed lower until nothing. Janet Yellen’s testimony in 2 days did not bring out any hints of hawkishness that disappointed the dollar bulls again yesterday since they somewhat expected that she will support the dollar and give any clues regarding economic growth and the schedule of the next rate increase. The Fed Chair spoke her typical lines without providing any signals and this resulted in a weaker dollar. Ultimately, the US CPI and retail sales and other significant data is the second most important set of data next to jobs report. Therefore, it should be monitored closely in order to know if there is some recovery in the employment statistics for these figures could also lead to a recovery. In case that this happens, we will witness a fully recovered US dollar.
  23. EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 13, 2017 The euro-dollar was able to clear the level 1.1488 followed by the strong data of the EMU production while the ECB Governing Council member, Ignazio Visco emphasized again that the European region should have a stronger expansionary policy. The exchange rate had reversed its direction during the latter part of the session, then whipsawed after the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen in front of Congress. The exchange rate further increased, however, failed to preserve its gains after an upward movement towards the 1.1489 region which is currently the resistance. The support of the pair can be found on the 10-day moving average at 1.1404 mark. The momentum gained the neutral position while the MACD histogram is printed near the zero level and the index further prints in the black with a flat trajectory which indicates consolidation. The rate consolidates continuously after the break out and hovered in the bull flag continuation pattern which is a respite that prompts higher.
  24. Argentina’s National Index Rose 1.2 percent in June In Argentina, consumer prices climbed to 1.2 percent for the month of June according to the national statistics agency NDEC on Tuesday, which is the first time the country has published a national index since the start of President’s Macri office. This is regarded as a “milestone” to rebuild the credibility of the country’s official statistics following the accusation of statistical manipulation. The IMF has lifted its disapproval to the statistics agency. Previously, the inflation in the greater Buenos Aires area was 1.4 percent in June and 21.9 percent in the past year. Come the first six months of the year, the consumer price increase by 11.8 percent countywide and 12 percent in the area. The central bank stated that the national index will now be the basis for monetary policy and kept its benchmark interest rate at 26.25 percent on Tuesday but still maintain the inflation target within the 12 to 17 percent. Economists forecast of national inflation will be at 21.5 percent this year.
  25. EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 12, 2017 The Euro against the British pound pair declined at the beginning of Tuesday session as it reached the 0.88 level below. Although, there is a significant amount of support found in the market as a whole as it has been in the previous resistance. Hence, it is reasonable for the trend to bounce off. After the comments of the Monetary Policy Committee member Broadbent, traders began selling the pair as it has been less hawkish than anticipated. Although, this is quite an overreaction. Towards the end of the day, the 0.89 level is being attained which offers a bit of resistance. Hence, pullbacks may be the best way to move forward while the 0.90 level is being resistive for long-term which could appeal more to traders. Buying in the dips is the recommended to enter the market where they see pullbacks to be valuable. Hence, traders are beginning to sell the British currency first. The 1.28 level is being massively supportive in the GBP/USD pair. If it persists in having a support level in the said area then it could not reach the 0.90 level immediately. However, if the British pound breaks down, this will be a significant move for the U.S. dollar which will put a negative pressure on this pair particularly to the British pound as a whole. Both currency markets should be observed but would be relative to each other. It is not advisable to sell this market due to the impulsive attitude is seen for the day.
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