Andrea ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2016 The EUR/USD has been consistently in a tight trading range for the past session as market players are waiting for the next stimulus in order to mark the start of the short-term trend. Although the EUR/USD has hit some significant price lows for this year, its follow throughs have been very few and far in between. The pair is currency seeing more consolidation, which indicates that the bulls are still waiting for possible economic events which could cause the price of the pair to crack both ways. The number of economic data which will be released today could possibly cause the pair to crack either way. The CPI data and Core CPI is scheduled to be released before the start of the New York session, and market players are expecting a positive data release since this could compel the Federal Reserve to continue with the rate hike in December. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is also scheduled to make a speech later today and is expected to confirm whether the Fed will be pushing through with the rate hike, and she is also expected to confirm that the Federal Reserve will be sustaining its operations and functions without any political influence, especially after Donald Trump’s victory. However, if Yellen fails to confirm the occurrence of the Fed rate hike, then this could cause the USD to weaken and the bulls will be active in the EUR/USD pair. The pricing of the EUR/USD should be able to go beyond 1.0725 in order for it to benefit the bulls, something that has not done by the currency pair for the past 24 hours. Today’s session could be a crucial period with regards to determining the projected direction of the pair.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2016 The GBP/USD pair remains in the lower trading range even though it has managed to stay above 1.2400. Market players have long been speculating that the after-effects of the Brexit referendum will continue to have an influence on the sterling pound no matter how many times it would increase and its bulls will not be able to stay put. The GBP will have difficulty with regards to getting and maintaining a substantial bull stance since the Brexit process will be too risky for investors and traders for them to make long-term bets. The currency pair has recently been trying to break through its rut, but any uptick by the sterling pound is always met with suspicion from investors and is always seen as a sell opportunity. The pair was somewhat able to increase by 200-300 pips during the past trading sessions but was incessantly pushed down by bears and has returned below 1.2500. For today’s trading session, investors are expecting the release of the UK retail sales data during the European session, with investors waiting whether this particular data release would be able to exceed initial expectations. The CPI data from US and comments from Fed’s Janet Yellen is also expected to make its rounds today, and the GBP/USD could possibly benefit if Yellen confirms the occurrence of the Fed rate hike in December by going down to the 1.2300 region.

The Highest-Ranking Russian Official Accused for Receiving $2M Bribe The Economy Minister of Russia, Ulyukayev were accused for accepting payments after he approved the takeover of 50% stake of Bashneft to a giant oil company, Rosneft. According to the investigators, the Russian minister collected $2m (£1.6m) worth of bribe, however, Ulyukayev pleaded not guilty on the allegation. Alexei Ulyukayev is considered to be the highest-ranking Russian official to be dismissed and arrested since the failed coup in 1991. The minister was arrested Tuesday morning and expected to face eight to 15 years of imprisonment but he continued to denied the blame and described it as “an act of provocation against a state official”. Moreover, the court allowed him to take a house arrest until January 15. President Vladimir Putin take an immediate action and impeached Mr. Ulyukayev since the 60-year-old minister broke the trust of Putin. The acting economy minister recently appointed was Yevgeny Yelin.

Morgan Stanley Bank Gained $10m After Stocks Rallied Morgan Stanley acquired more than 10 million U.S. dollars equivalent to 8 million pounds of shares after Trump’s victory in U.S. presidential election. Stocks rallied in effect of post election and the bank, Morgan Stanley collected as much as a fifth of their collated earnings as their highest for more than a year. After the election, this has been the best performance as stocks recovered from 2008 to 2009 financial crisis. The market sees Trump’s campaign to elevate inflation of infrastructures and Federal Reserve’s fiscal policies that further boost banks turnover.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2016 The USD continued to rise against the JPY as investor reaction caused the USD/JPY to reach its highest levels since June 2016. This has caused the market to reach its striking distance range since May at 111.44 points. The USD/JPY pair finished off the previous session at 109.181 points after increasing by 0.760 or +0.70%. This recent rally was mainly caused by a sharp increase in US Treasury yields following the bullish report for the US retail sales data. The US Commerce Department has reported that retail sales data went up by 0.8% for the previous month, with September retail sales data revised to have increased by 1.0%. The retail sales data for both months were the highest data release since 2014, with retail sales data increasing by 4.3% as compared to last year. Traders also reacted to an increase in import prices from 0.2% to 0.5%, a signal that inflation rates are now steadily increasing. The USD/JPY is expected to continue increasing towards 111.444 as US Treasury yields are still expected to increase further. Meanwhile, Japanese Government Bonds are still at the bottom range while US Treasury 30-year Bonds are steadily rising. Investors are waiting for the release of the Produce Price Index which is expected to maintain its previous reading of 0.3%. The data for the Capacity Utilization Rate is also expected to remain at 75.5%, while Industrial Production data could possibly show a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2%.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2016 The AUD/USD pair exhibited increased volatility during Tuesday’s session but ended the session on a higher range at 0.7559 points after increasing by +0.05% or 0.0004 points. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD closed down the previous trading session at 0.7099 after decreasing by -0.24% or 0.0017 points. The Australian dollar received substantial support after the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its recently concluded policy meeting. The minutes of the RBA showed a balanced inflation risk, indicating a more stable monetary policy which is expected to go forward. The RBA has also showed a positive stance with regards to global growth. However, the market has to consider that the RBA meeting took place prior to the election of Donald Trump. The Australian dollar broke sharply as the session closed due to the release of the US retail sales data which came out on a much positive note as compared to October’s data. According to report, majority of households in the US purchased a wide range of goods, including motor vehicles. The retail sales report indicates that the US economy is sustaining enough growth which could increase the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December. However, the Federal Reserve has stated that it will be closely watching the regulation of the financial market as well as interest rates due to Trump’s fiscal spending proposals. The Fed Vice Chairman has also stated that however risky the market liquidity is at present, the liquidity is just enough to sustain the movement of the global market.

Chinese Industrial Production Rose But Retail Sales Slowed Down The economic activity of China was presumed to stabilize last month, however, retail sales fall off due to worries about the outlook of the US-China trade frictions under the administration of President Donald Trump. Moreover, the industrial sector performed a better-than-expected 6.1% growth in the month of October while the retail industry dropped an estimated 10% sales. China’s fixed-asset investment further acquire 8.3% increase for the past 10 months of the present year, this result exceeded the expectation from January to October seeing the government allocated infrastructure expenditures in order to reinforce growth as shown in the official data on Monday.

Better Global Economic Standing Despite Rise in Unemployment Rate Recent data showed a 3% growth but this was because of short-term fleeting factors. The unemployment rate stayed low while the underemployment and long-term unemployment has increased with weakened nominal wage and inflation. This is in contrast of unemployment rates released by IMF saying that it increased were majority part-time. Australia's economic status is performing better than other countries and it would get stronger if there will be more investments and invigorate business confidence. However if the investments remained subtle, company earnings would be affected and be in tension. Also, the consumer consumption would stay low if the job earnings would not increase. The RBA should keep interest rate slow and maximize infrastructure spending to increase in employment rates in current global economic environment.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 15, 2016 The JPY was subject to selling pressure following a speech from the Bank of Japan’s Haruhiko Kuroda. The Japanese yen was unable to receive substantial support from domestic demand in spite of the positive output for the Japanese GDP for the third quarter. Meanwhile, the USD was subject to increased buying pressure, causing the USD/JPY pair to increase in value. The currency pair’s value continued to trade along the upper range, with the pair testing the 108.00 range, where it remained until the end of the London trading session. The New York session saw the USD/JPY break through its previous level and buyers were able to extend profits beyond the 108.00 region. The USD/JPY’s 4-hour chart shows the pair going well beyond its current moving averages, while the pair’s 50, 100, and 200 EMAs showed a significant increase in value. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY is currently at 108.50, while support levels are expected to be at 108.00. The pair’s technical indicators are all situated at the positive region. The USD will have to go beyond 108.00 in order to maintain the pair’s bullish stance and to keep the pair going up to 108.50. Sellers are also expected to make a comeback in the market, with the 106.50 as their primary aim for the USD/JPY.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 15, 2016 The USD has been recently exhibiting a steady increase, causing the EUR/USD pair to open this week’s session with a weaker value and went even lower as the previous session progressed. The currency pair closed last week’s session at its support levels of 1.0850 and the market was expecting further support levels at 1.0800. However, the EUR/USD started out the previous trading session at below 1.0800 in the light of a broadly increasing USD value. The EUR/USD further decreased in value, going through 1.0750 at the London session and tested support levels at 1.0700 at the start of the New York trading session. The movements of the EUR/USD were somewhat muted during the course of the trading session, mainly due to the significant strength of the USD plus Draghi opting to stay mum with regards to the ECB’s future plans on its monetary policies. The currency pair spent the rest of the New York session consolidating after the market chose to keep a positive outlook for the Trump presidency, and the USD is expected to have a continuously positive reaction in the market. The market is now expecting the release of Germany’s preliminary GDP during the European session, as well as the retail sales data from the US to be released during the New York session. These are expected to confirm market speculations with regards to the Fed rate hike in December.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: November 15, 2016 The EUR/GBP pair lost its sellers below the 0.86 region for the third consecutive session, maintaining the currency pair’s stance over the key levels in the light of a highly active economic calendar. The market is expecting the release of Germany’s GDP report for the third quarter of 2016. The CPI data for the UK is also expected to exhibit an increased cost of living for the nation at 1.1% for October. The GDP report for the European Union is also expected to get significant attention from market players as it gets released later in the session. The increased activity in the economic calendar could lead to an increase in stock market activity, which will then have a significant impact on the demand for EUR. The EUR/GBP is currently trading at the 0.8610 range, and incessant bounces from the 0.86 handle could possibly cause the pair to break through the handle and could lead the pair to trade at 0.8652 points and 0.85. On the positive territory, if the pair manages to go above its 100-DMA of 0.8628 then this could cause the pair to go over 0.8664 and possibly even reach its zero figure of 0.8700.

Higher Volumes of Exports Boosted Japan's Economy The Japan's economy have seen greater improvement from the month of July until September due to a higher number of international trades. The country's GDP escalated to 2.2% within three months. Japan is greatly concern about the anti-free trade rhetoric supported by the newly-elect US President D. Trump since it is expected that this campaign would bother the Japanese region. Subsequent to the results of the U.S elections, the yen curtailed versus the dollar. Hence, the country's good became cheaper in abroad, this brought positive talks for the foreign exporters. The world's third-largest economy accumulated a better-than- expected result of 0.5% while the forecast showed 0.2% only. However, some analysts who stated that the nation is relying much on exports and considered that these are windfalls only.

U.S. Dollars Strengthens Unabatingly That May Lead to Inflation Greenback continues to surge with the unexpected win of Trump that signals inflation to take place sometime in the future. It climbed as high as 99.247 on Monday during Asian session from 97 handle prior to election. His principles advocated during his campaign such as protectionism, changes in immigration, infrastructures and debt spending set inflation back to the market at the same time, this would cause the U.S. Dollars to further appreciate in value. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 2 percent from 1.80 percent before election. This surge is expected to continue with short-term trend moves up, it is anticipated for U.S. Dollars to get stronger.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016 The USD experienced a sharp increase against the JPY following a series of investor reactions regarding Donald Trump’s sudden victory in the US elections. The USD/JPY pair closed down last week’s session at 106.615 points after increasing by +3.45% or 3.552 points. A large number of investors had a flight to safety on November 8 due to uncertainties brought about by the elections, a move highly similar to the Brexit referendum last June. This resulted to increases in the prices of gold and CHF, but as the market came to terms with a Trump victory this has resulted to a steady increase in the US dollar. The market is now expecting added inflation due to Trump’s policies, which include added fiscal spending and production of trade. This has caused the US Treasury yields to increase, therefore putting upward pressure on the USD and making the USD a more sensible investment as compared to Japan’s government bonds. Analysts are now saying that this could compel the Federal Reserve to increase the frequency of its rate hikes. The USD/JPY pair is expected to continue increasing if the US Treasury yields continue to strengthen as well. Major economic releases from Japan include the nation’s Preliminary GDP, which is expected to clock in at 0.2%, which is the same as the previous GDP report. For the US, expected economic releases are the Retail Sales data, Philadelphia Fed reports, Building Permits data and the Producer Price Index data. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is also expected to make a statement on Thursday.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016 The USD/CAD pair was able to reach its short-term target of 1.3500 since the pair was one of the least volatile currency pairs after the market’s reaction to the US presidential elections last week. The USD in particular exhibited wild up-and-down motions while the US elections was in process as investors did not know how to react to the sudden victory of Donald Trump. Trump is not yet known how to act as a political figure, however he is expected to implement protectionist policies and it is expected that Canada would also be affected by Trump’s “neighbor” policy, causing the CAD’s reaction to the elections to become somewhat muted as compared to other currencies. Oil prices have also experienced added activity last week, as this commodity has a significant effect on the Canadian economy. For this week, major economic releases from the US include the retail sales data as well as a testimonial from Fed’s Janet Yellen who is expected to outline the Federal Reserve’s future policies. The market is still expecting a rate hike in December, and the Fed is also expected to increase the frequency of its rate hikes for 2017, and this speculation has been one of the reasons behind the large upticks occurring in the USD/CAD pair. However, these policies might be subject to changes as the weeks progress and as Trump assumes office next year.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016 The GBP/USD also experienced the effect of the increased market volatility during the US elections, however its reaction was largely different compared to that of the other currency pairs. The GBP/USD pair was steadily increasing amid initial market expectations of a Clinton victory but as it became clear that Trump was winning the presidency, the currency pair suddenly increased in value as opposed to other currency pairs, which either went up and down or experienced a large decline. The GBP/USD reached the 1.2550 range but slowly decreased as the market reconciled with a Trump victory and as the USD slowly regained some of its lost value. However, as the other currency pairs steadily dropped in value as the USD rose, the sterling pound instead rose higher and came to rest at a much higher trading range than the USD. This led to speculations that since the US was able to survive the sudden onslaught brought about by a Trump victory, the UK would also be able to hold off on its own as the Brexit progresses. The increase in the GBP was largely due to a minimizing of the initial market overreaction to Brexit, and causing the pair to go up to 1.2670 and ended the previous week with just a little below 1.2600. The market is expecting the release of the CPI data and inflation reports from the UK this week, which could give hints regarding the overall status of the UK economy and help in evaluating the further effects of Brexit on the nation’s economy.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 11, 2016 The USD increased tremendously against the JPY during Thursday’s trading session after investors posted a somewhat hopeful sentiment towards President-elect Trump’s term, as well as his ability to add stimulus to the US economy as well as increase the nation’s interest rates. The USD bounced back to 106.94, its highest level reached since July. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous trading session at 106.793 points after increasing by +1.08% or 1.139 and is expected to make further gains at 3.5%. Since today is a US bank holiday, the USD is expected to get high levels of support from the US Treasury market, which could possibly lead to limited upside activity or profit taking, especially since US Treasury yields reached its highest levels this week, its highest after 10 months. The USD/JPY could either increase further if the US reflation trade gains momentum and long-term US Treasury yields go higher, or the currency pair could be augmented by a steady flow of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. However, there is also a possibility that the USD could lose its footing against the JPY, especially since one of the major highlights of the Trump presidency is protectionism, which could adversely affect the US foreign trade. The recent activity of the USD as well as the US equity markets suggest that investors are expecting that Trump would be able to become successful with regards to expanding the US economy by way of tax cuts and fiscal spending. These could induce inflation levels and add up to the US debt, prompting the Fed to increase interest rates next year in a more frequent succession than previously expected.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016 The market is keen and waiting for the U.S. presidential election on November 8 afternoon time in USA. The polls shown a tight competition between the candidates. Traders learned from Brexit that it is much safer to be on standby and wait for the results that is why there is less volatility yesterday until this day. This day determines the short term trend for various instruments which is being anticipated by market players. Yesterday was bearish for the pair as the U.S. Dollars strengthened with traders aspiring Clinton to win. It posited at 1.1050 and 1.1031 physiological levels. Volatility is expected for the day with the bearish trend to continue as the election closes by. The financial market is positioning with Clinton winning as this is what they want which is expected to further strengthen the U.S. Dollars once the results are out. However if the Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the election, this is not what is expected that may cause a short-term turmoil in the market. There are no other major economic news to be released neither from the Euro region nor on the U.S.A today. Everyone is looking forward for the election which is the focus for the past weeks bringing volatility today and tomorrow. It is presumed for other data to come out after the election results are out. It is advisable for traders to be keen in their positions with tight stop losses.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 8, 2016 The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve did not release any important economic statements today, and investors from Japan are not expected to make any significant movements until after the US presidential elections. The USD/JPY pair is also expected to further decrease in value due to the most recent movement in oil prices. The USD/JPY pair further widened its gap during Monday’s session, increasing from 103.13 to 103.74 points due to gap traders triggering an increase in the gap value. Meanwhile, the pair’s pricing was able to increase by up to 104.50 after the upward momentum for the pair decreased and is expected to be sustained until the end of the New York session. The 4-hour chart for the pair showed the USD going over its current moving averages, with the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs exhibiting an upward direction. Resistance levels for the support is expected to be at 104.50, while support levels are expected to be at 104.00 points. MACD levels for the pair exhibited a drop in seller strength due to its increase. RSI indicators are still in the overvalued range but could probably go lower as the trading session progresses. The negative outlook for the USD/JPY could possibly fade if the currency pair goes over 104.00 points, and buyers could be able to increase their profits if it reaches 105.00. Conversely, bears might be able to induce the pricing to go beneath 104.00 points.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016 The GBP/USD is currently one of the most active currency pairs as of yesterday’s trading session after it plummeted from 1.2500 and settled below 1.2400 points after the most recent news regarding the FBI probe of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails. The GBP/USD is expected to further increase its volatility during today’s session up until the following days especially in the light of the upcoming US presidential elections. If Clinton manages to win the elections, then could push the USD farther up the positive range and cause the pair to go lower, possibly even crossing below the 1.2300 range. This is highly possible since the sterling pound is not only the most volatile currency as of this writing, but it is currently among the weakest due to complications in the Brexit strategies of the UK government. The ongoing discussions regarding Article 50 might induce more risks and could make the sterling weaker as the discussions progress. The UK Manufacturing Data is expected to be released during the European trading session, and this is expected to give traders a clearer notion of how the UK manages its Brexit complications. However, the entirety of the market is now monitoring the results of the US elections, and the USD is expected to become more volatile in the coming hours.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016 The stronger U.S. dollar overpowers Australian dollar. Last week, the greenback declined as the polls showed a lead of the Republican candidate Donald Trump against the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton. Now, it has been reversed. Greenback is anticipated to rise up again as the news regarding Hilary Clinton’s issue with the private email server, while she was still in the position as the secretary of the state, has been cleared. This sudden boost in prices is a great opportunity especially for audacious investors and gain profit to low prices and buy stocks to avail funds. Investors are expected to hedge funds to narrow risks in this situation. Aussie is considerably a risky asset hence, a bullish trend may not create a big change in the Australian dollar. Yet, the next move of this pair cannot be clearly known compared to other major currency such as Yen and dollar. Traders have to be careful on their next move and there are other pairs that are more stable. The main concern in U.S. is the presidential election while the price activity of Aussie depends on the AIG Construction Index and the ANZ Job Advertisements report. There are other minor news in Australia namely: the Labor Market Conditions Index, Loan Officer Survey and Consumer Credit. However, these are expected not to have a major influence in trading. Aussie is in a neutral state today and investors should be mindful that the price activity may change drastically as it might go a sudden dive in response with the news. As the U.S. presidential election gets near, the financial market is still shaky with investors being unsure to take a position prior to the election.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016 The USD is expected to increase significantly against the yen during Monday’s trading session as a result of investor reaction to reports that the FBI will be dropping its investigation of US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails and will not be filing any charges against the Democratic candidate. This then means that the Monday session is most likely to be a risky day as investors are expected to go on an aggressive USD and stock-buying spree especially after last week’s sell-offs. Investors are also expected to sell their safe haven assets which were bought as hedge against the probability of a Trump victory, which includes the JPY, EUR, and gold stocks. The USD/JPY dropped to its support region located at the 102.799-102.155 range, going down at 102.533. The pair is expected to rally back to at least 104.03 to 104. 383 if the short-term rally for today’s session proves to be strong enough for the currency pair. Market players are expected to mainly focus on the upcoming elections even with new economic events taking place, after which, the market is expected to shift its focus on the expected Fed rate hike this coming December. These events are expected to induce an upward shift in the value of the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is expected to release the minutes of its latest Monetary Policy Meeting, while the Average Cash Earnings is expected to be released at 0.2%. Minor reports from the US to be released this Monday are the Loan Officer Survey, Labor Market Conditions, 10-Year Bond Auctions and Consumer Credit data.

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: November 7, 2016 The USD/JPY pair was able to make a small recovery during last Friday’s session after a series of risk-offs which hit the European and American stock market. However, the pair continues to stay in the negative territory and traded within Thursday’s low levels on Friday’s session. The currency pair had a fairly bearish stance after the pair experienced selling pressure above the 103.00 region. Resistance was encountered by USD bulls along the 103.20 trading range where the 200 EMA is also located. The 200 EMA maintained the pressure on the USD/JPY by resisting all possible recovery moves. The 50 and 100 EMAs for the currency pair decreased quickly, while the 200 EMA maintained its bearish outlook for the session. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be around the 103.50 range, while support levels are expected to come up at the 103.00 region. The technical indicators for the USD/JPY pair are seen to be slightly bearish, with an increase in the MACD indicator showing a weakness in seller positions. Meanwhile, the RSI indicators for the pair is still consolidating within its undervalued regions. The USD/JPY pair is expected to have its resistance levels at 103.50 if the currency pair would be able to consolidate over the 103.00 region. However, the USD/JPY might again experience a decline if the pair closes the session with a lower value than this particular level.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016 The EUR/USD is expected to incur significant gains due to risks that Donald Trump could possibly win the upcoming presidential elections, something that the international market did not anticipate. However, some market players are also saying that the USD would be able to regain some of its strength over a few days and a relief rally would occur should Clinton come out as the winning candidate in the elections. Prior to the opening of the Monday session, Clinton was already cleared by the FBI with regards to her e-mails and this is expected to be good for her campaign and has already caused some currency pairs to open up certain gaps. The EUR/USD pair has already dropped by up to 70 pips and this is just a sneak peek of what could possibly happen if ever Clinton wins the presidential elections, especially since the market is now anticipating a Clinton victory with Trump’s chances becoming invariably slim. Market players are expecting that this particular gap in the currency pair will be temporarily covered, while the USD is set to regain some of its lost value during the next trading sessions, especially with the impending presidential elections.