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Andrea ForexMart

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  1. Andrea ForexMart
    Euro Drops, Bonds Surge as Italy Says No to Constitutional Reforms The EUR plummeted along with Asian stocks while bond prices surged after the Italian government voted “No” on the referendum for constitutional reforms, which sparked concerns that this recent development in the country will induce instability in the Italian economy and boost nationalist organizations. The euro hit its lowest point in almost two years after Italian PM Renzi announced his resignation. UK-based stocks and Asian shares index futures also dropped, while government debt recoiled in Treasuries during Friday’s session.
  2. Andrea ForexMart
    PM Renzi's Plan for Italy's Reformation Has Failed on Sunday The Prime Minister of Italy, Matteo Renzi had his decision to resign last night after he lose in a constitutional referendum held Sunday, 4th of December 2016. The Italian politician admitted his defeat prior to the issuance of the official results and as expected the exit poll exhibited that Renzi is facing a humiliating defeat. The referendum rise due to the plan of the 41-year-old PM to establish a major economic reform package in order to reconstruct the political system of the country. As he proposed to reform the power of the senate as well to reduce its number present in the lower house of parliament. Furthermore, he wanted to amend the political authority of every state and region in Italy.
  3. Andrea ForexMart
    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 5, 2016 The EUR/USD crashed during the previous trading session after the Italian government voted “No” against the proposed constitutional reforms which led to the Italian Prime Minister resigning from his post. This has caused the Italian economy to experience major disturbances since the vote would translate into major policy reversals and could possibly lead to financial woes and could make a lot of investors lose their confidence in the eurozone currency. These previous events has caused the EUR/USD pair to incur a widened gap, with the currency pair now testing solid support levels at 1.0550 points. Market players are now closely monitoring if the currency pair manages to sustain its hold in the current support region since a break beyond this level could lead to the pair possibly reaching 1.00 points. For this week, the ECB is expected to hold a meeting later within the week, and majority of market players are expecting Draghi to outline the QE program timeline whose conclusion is expected this coming March 2017. If Draghi refuses to have an extension of the QE program, then this could give the euro a much-needed boost. However for now, the market is mainly focused on the possible repercussions of the recently concluded Italian referendum. For today’s trading session, market players will be mostly focusing on the reaction of the European market on the results of the Italian referendum, since this will be a determinant on the euro’s next move especially since the outlook for the EUR was mostly positive until the results of the said referendum. There are no major economic releases expected from the eurozone for today, and the European market is expected to be subject to tension as the EUR/USD pair will be undergoing significant pressure for today’s trading session.
  4. Andrea ForexMart
    New Monetary Policy of Japan: Massive Buying Government Bonds Continues The new policy framework of Japan to help the increase of policy rates to elevate the economy will be carried on to increase inflation rates. The BOJ decided to change their policies after the printing of money and huge asset buying to be unsuccessful to meet its 2 percent inflation target. In views of this, they are trying to create a more sustainable monetary policies. The massive buying of government bonds will be maintained with yield curve being inline with central bank's expectations. Although there are concerns that this move negatively affects the real-estate investment trust market of Japan.
  5. Andrea ForexMart
    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 30, 2016 The U.S dollar has softened since Monday while the pound also endures weakness since the week starts as it edged lower because of the end-of-month flows and due to the EU membership payments plus other driving factors. Yesterday, the sterling established further strengthening and rebounded towards 1.2400 region and reached beyond 1.2540 level before the cable pair settled down from the 1.2500 area and this increase would be better as the weakening of the dollar continues. The instability of the greenbacks is felt globally though other currencies remains exempted dollar’s softening. The sluggish stance is not a result of weak services data or any fundamentals but more about the market’s weariness regarding the new president of the United States who has the habit of expressing his thoughts whenever he wants to. This way the markets are uncertain about what he’s going to declare any moment. Furthermore, we are looking forward bank stress test results from the UK. In case that the bank has favorable result we expect for additional strength for the pound which would put the GBP/USD as far as the 1.2500 region. We also await for the ADP Employment data and if the result is less than the expected, the greens will suffer another round of reduction because this report is the main indicator for the NFP on Friday.
  6. Andrea ForexMart
    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 30, 2016 According to the previous forecasts, the EURUSD persist in having a slow growth and it used the 1.0580 as its base. The pair were able to break the 1.0600 region overnight and settled down from the 1.0650 as of the moment. Later this day, the solid resistance seen at 1.0685 will be challenged and the price trend will be the basis for the possible uptrend of the pair. The pair is able to rose because of the mild weakening of the USD felt all over, the instability is considered as mild since violent movements are nowhere to be seen among any currency pair. As the end of the month approach, we expect month-end flows to prevail the money flow for today. Despite the positive results of US economic data, GDP and CCI, the dollar continues to soften for the past 24 hours. The fluctuation is caused by the fear of the market regarding President-elect Donald Trump’s unsure policies. Trump is seen posting his opinions using his Twitter account which represents a not so good habit for someone who is the leader of a state. We are expecting for Draghi's remarks for today and we suppose that his speech won’t complicate the market or either trigger volatility. We also look forward to the EUR/USD to execute trades at higher ranges characterized with a bullish sentiment.
  7. Andrea ForexMart
    As Energy Corporations Retreat, Canadian Stocks Drop to Lowest Levels in Two Weeks Canadian stocks dropped to its lowest levels in two weeks after oil companies were subject to significant losses in the light of talks among producers prior to the OPEC meeting scheduled in Vienna, Austria within the week. Energy corporations led the S&P/TSX Composite Index lower after it fell by up to 1.4% for three consecutive days, which is the longest losing streak for the index since November. Out of the 11 industries in this particular index, 7 companies experienced losses, and industrial stocks also retreated and were subject to significant decreases.
  8. Andrea ForexMart
    OECD Expects 3% Growth Slip for Australia Until 2018 The intergovernmental economic organization, OECD has released its recent assessment regarding the economic stance of Australia. According to the organization, the economic growth of the region has the tendency to decline by 3% by the end of the current year and expected to persist until 2018 by which the RBA already planned to had an increase of rates by the aforesaid period. In the month of June, the country’s economy appears to be growing, however, economists studied that the Australian continent reached its soft spot where growth are limited after the issuance of national accounts for September were released on the 7th of December. The OECD advised during this phenomenon of growth slippage, the government should lead the ways in order to recover as soon as possible through investing in infrastructure rather than implying a rate cut considering that the average housing prices and rates are relatively low.
  9. Andrea ForexMart
    Oil Market Uncertainty Brought the Prices Down Market still awaits if OPEC will be able to reduce their production output on Wednesday bringing the oil price down on Tuesday. The next OPEC meeting will be held on Wednesday at Vienna to come up with a decision to cut production. This brought uncertainty in the market resulting in high volatility. Political considerations and set agreement for quota of countries hinders from coming up to an agreement. If there will be no agreement reached, oil prices are expected to rise averaging $45 per barrel until next summer.
  10. Andrea ForexMart
    USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2016 The pair USD/CAD has been on a spree but with no direction since OPEC hasn’t reached an agreement yet. Oil prices came at a low price yesterday morning the reports came in at the afternoon with Iraq would participate alongside with other OPEC members in reducing production output but there are also reports saying the opposite where countries like Iran and Iraq have no plan of any production cuts. Loonies are dependent to the oil market pricing as it strengthens relative the oil prices. The pair was seen to begin trading at 1.3500 level then later set in close to the support at 1.3400 after the news has been released. It ranges from 1.34 handle to 1.3450 as the market is not definite on what will happen next that makes the market undecided. What happened on September may occur again where OPEC decided on the last minute. The Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz had a speech this morning in a positive tone inciting the economy is improving and getting stronger. As the loonies continue to appreciate this keeps the tension up trading in this pair with high volatility while the market still awaits on the outcome of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting. We had the BOC Governor Poloz speaking early today and he did sound generally very positive about the economy and expressed that the data is slowly getting better which means that the economy is getting stronger as time rolls on. This also added to the CAD strength and helped to keep the pair under pressure. It is expected to have ample liquidity today and tomorrow however if the reverse happens, then the pair will price higher and the Canadian dollar will depreciate.
  11. Andrea ForexMart
    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2016 The GBP/USD pair was subject to downward pressure during the previous trading session as monthly cash flows combined with a slight increase in the USD triggered the pair to drop from its highs of 1.2500 to just below 1.2400 points. Every month, the market always expects added selling pressure for the GBP since the UK pays its EU membership fees every month. As a result, the value of the EUR/GBP increases, and the GBP becomes subject to significant losses. There are also some speculations that the Brexit process will be subject to a number of legal challenges which could cause the process to be delayed altogether, and the schedule of events for the Brexit process could possibly go haywire. The UK government is also questioning the decision of the High Court for a Parliament debate first before pushing through with the Brexit process, while the Parliament is already preparing for the said debate just in case that the High Court refuses to overrule its previous decision on the Brexit process. The strength of the GBP would definitely be affected by these expected delays in the Brexit process and could have an adverse effect on the UK economy in general. For today’s trading session, there is no major economic news expected from the UK. However, the US will be releasing its Advanced GDP data and this could increase the market volatility, with a consolidation possibly happening together with a bearish stance.
  12. Andrea ForexMart
    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016 The remarks made by Mario Draghi was the center of attraction of the market yesterday. As investors anticipated for an improvement in policy and economy, as well as other concerns related with the June 23 referendum. Meanwhile, bears became active again this time. The previous recovery loses its gains around the 1.0700 region. The pair withdrawn from its recent highs and lowered down towards 1.0650 level amid post-EU hours. Moreover, seller's maneuvered the price near the 1.0600 during the EU session. The price pushed the 200-EMA below and found a barrier within the 50 and 100 EMAs as indicated in the 1-hour chart. The 200-day moving averages headed downwards, the 100-day average has established a neutral stance and the 50-day heightened. The resistance settled at 1.0650, support entered the 1.0600 level. The MACD increased and specified weaker position for the sellers. RSI headed southwards.
  13. Andrea ForexMart
    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016 The USD further dropped in relation to the JPY due to ambiguities surrounding oncoming economic events such as the release of the Non-farm Payrolls data and the minutes of the OPEC meeting, prompting a lot of investors to clamp down on their deals. The pricing of the USD/JPY pair sustained its upward direction during Monday’s trading session but remained within its lower levels and made small reversions during the Tokyo session. However, as the European session opened, the currency pair started speeding up its increase and ultimately reverted back to 113.00 just before the start of the New York session. The hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair showed that its pricing was able to go beyond the 100 EMA during the middle of the London session and tested the 50 EMA towards the closing of the London session. The currency pair’s 200 and 100 EMAs went up further while the 50 EMA slowly went towards the neutral territory in the same chart. The resistance levels for the USD/JPY is expected to be at 113.00, while its support levels are expected to be at 112.00. The MACD indicators for the currency pair inched higher, indicating an added strength in buyer positions. Its RSI indicators also moved upwards. For this week, the USD/JPY is expected to make a comeback, with the first bull target slated to be at 113.00 points. If the pair manages to reach this level, then the pair could possibly extend its gains toward 114.00 points.
  14. Andrea ForexMart
    Gold Recovers from Nine-Month Slump as USD Drops Gold stocks were able to recover from its recent nine-month slump as the USD’s strength which sent gold prices down and pushed silver into a bearish market finally fizzled out. As gold finally clocked in its first increases in four days, its weekly loss was cut back by up to 2%, while prices have all but decreased following the release of highly positive economic data and expected increase in national spending after Trump’s recent win increased market expectations of added interest rates. As a result, a lot of investors are now selling off gold-backed investments, the fastest selloff seen in three years.
  15. Andrea ForexMart
    Base Metals Continued to Surge Due to Increase in Infrastructure Spending Metals had a persistent improvement amid on the supposition on Trump’s infrastructure expenditure and weakness in the overall inventories. Copper was able to arrive on its one-week high after the extensive downfall of the base metals. In trading copper within Asia has reached $269.90. However, investors speculate that Trump’s fiscal investment is almost $1trn which is expected to be the driving force for growth but will lessen the supplies considering the fact that China’s yuan hedging. In light of this, the bullish impetus gives rise for the demand of the trend-following fund as it was able to surge the buying pressure. Furthermore, the industrial metals sustained an upward lift amid the strengthening of the U.S dollar compared to other currencies. Despite China’s procurement of copper as a hedge to overcome yuan devaluation, the data issued specified a positive growth in supply. There is also an expected rally in prices of other base metals in order to raise an opportunity to replenish short trading commodities.
  16. Andrea ForexMart
    Service Sector Affected by Low Optimism in the Economy Low consumer spending and rise in wages affected the Service sector of U.K. for this month of November. This would bring negativity this Christmas season since pound has also depreciated. Companies rendering professional services are expected to decline in sales while it is the opposite for consumer services which is predicted to rise in sales in the next three months. Even though, the consumer confidence has weakened, the employment growth remained steadfast. Consumer companies may allocate funds to training which will increase spending but cut down expenses on location, vehicles and machineries.
  17. Andrea ForexMart
    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 28, 2016 Base metals, ore, in particular, presented a positive outlook on Friday which supported the Aussie to strengthen. The AUDUSD were able to expand its short-term upward trajectory and made a higher high on the same day. The AUD entered the 0.7450 level but suddenly fell flat to reclaim it. The pair tested the level, moved lower and stayed within the 0.7450 region ahead of the opening of NY session. Both Aussie and greens made a reversal from its daily high and rebounded to the area of 0.7400 amid the North American trading session. According to in the 4-hour chart, the pair broke the bearish 50-EMA whereas the indicator’s growth appears to be sluggish. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200 EMAs) expanded its declines as shown in the same time chart. Current resistance can be found at 0.7450, support pierced the 0.7400 region. MACD arrived in the positive zone. RSI accelerated touching the overbought territory. There is a possibility for the pair to continue an upward trajectory near the 0.7500 when it breaks the level on top of the 0.7450. Should the pair stayed down from the 0.450, the price will edged lower and reverse its gains. In light of this, sellers were able to push the price towards 0.7350 and 0.7300.
  18. Andrea ForexMart
    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 28, 2016 The USD has just clinched its highest trading range for eight straight months against the JPY after the US bond yields continued to surge during the Asian trading session after the US market holiday. The ascending trend for the currency pair continued, with the price of the pair extending beyond its upper limit at 114.00 points before inching lower. The downward direction of the pair caused it to lose momentum at the 113.00 trading range during the start of the London session and remained until the end of the session. The pair’s 1-hour chart encountered its barrier at the 50 EMA, lending a strong support for the currency pair. The moving averages for the currency pair maintained its bullish stance within its set timeframe. The pair’s resistance levels are expected to be at 114.00, while its support levels are expected to be at 113.00. The MACD indicators for the currency pair weakened, indicating a decrease in buyer positions. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators have already left the overbought range. The USD/JPY is expected to go beyond the upward channel if the pair would be able to go lower than 112.00. In order to diminish the effect of the present upward pressure, sellers will have to induce the pricing of the pair to go lower than 111.00. Or else a move towards 113.00 will cause a positive reaction and could trigger the pair to reach the 114.00 trading region.
  19. Andrea ForexMart
    USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 28, 2016 The USD/CAD pair was consolidating and trading in a tight range last week, with the strength of the USD being countered by equally-strong loonie. However, the currency pair briefly dropped at the 1.3380 trading range but closed down the week on a much higher note at 1.3600 points. The USD/CAD exhibited active fluctuations throughout the week but were quickly reversed after sellers and buyers both struggled to take control of the currency pair. The USD had remarkable strength for the past three weeks ever since the results of the US elections, while the increasing value of the CAD was largely attributed to highly positive economic data from the Canadian economy, as well as the continued buoyancy of oil prices. The OPEC is set to have a meeting this coming November 30 and the organization is expected to produce a deal between oil producers with regards to production cuts, with producers expected to be in support of a production cut, which has boosted the CAD and has kept the USD/CAD pair in line. For this week, the market is expecting the OPEC meeting and if the results of the said meeting turn out to be positive, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly go upwards to 1.3400 and could even go further at 1.3300 points. For the US, the NFP employment report is also slated to be released within the week, and if this particular data turns out to be positive, then this could be an indicator for the market as to whether the Fed would be increasing the frequency of its rate hikes for next year which could further strengthen the greenback.
  20. Andrea ForexMart
    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 28, 2016 The GBP/USD exhibited a generally bullish stance last week as the sterling pound continued to counter the recent strengthening of the USD, with the GBP the lone currency that has held its ground against the ever-increasing value of the USD. The strong stance of the GBP is reflective of the currency settling as the invocation of Article 50 draws nearer and after a positive reaction from the markets after the high court has ruled that the Parliament will have to go through a debate and discussion before pushing through with the said article. This has resulted into the market receiving assurance that the UK economy will be well taken care of as the region goes through the Brexit process. This has caused the GBP/USD pair to continuously consolidate on both sides of the 1.2500 region in spite of the added strength of the USD. The GBP did not experience much volatility for the past week as the Hammond Autumn statement predicted a somewhat negative forecast for the UK economy for the next two years, thereby meeting general market expectations. However, for this week, the currency pair is expected to experience added volatility as currency flows are more likely to have an effect on the value of the sterling pound. The NFP employment report from the US is also expected to determine whether the Fed will be increasing the frequency of its rate hikes this coming 2017.
  21. Andrea ForexMart
    U.S Dollar Gained Much Power Even Before Trump’s Victory The greens continuously rise after Donald Trump won the American presidential election. However, these upsurge angst companies that imports their products to other countries which caused few investors to place the full responsibility to Trump for they earning less than their average gains because the dollar is too strong. Moreover, these complaints were on the deck before the new U.S President-elect take his position. The squawks from companies point out that the cause of low earnings is due to the issues regarding the stronger dollar. Some of the large companies that the currency brought headwinds into their firms include Apple, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Kraft Heinz, Procter & Gamble and Whirlpool. According to the research made by the Pavilion Global Markets that current stance of the dollar is the top reason why companies earned worse than their expectations, followed by issues concerning Brexit, election, the Fed, and wages. Nevertheless, Jim Paulsen from Wells Capital Management said in an interview that he predicts that the greenbacks will experience a decline for 2017 because of the increasing inflationary expectations.
  22. Andrea ForexMart
    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 24, 2016 The Canadian dollar against greenbacks moves in a consolidated state close to low psychological levels. The next move could be a rebound to 1.3500 level as what happened yesterday. There is less volatility in the market during the Asian and Euro trading session but it there has been a high activity during the U.S. session in preparation for Thanksgiving holiday which was further supported by the strong U.S. economic data. The pair bounced higher than 1.34 level next to 1.35 level towards 1.3525 zone. This was induced by the reports from Iraq requesting to cut output of oil producers while balancing the market supply and demand. The current demand is stable while the oil price is predicted to climbed in the next days to come. This cause the loonie to rally and strengthen yesterday and retreated at the same time. The pair moves in an uptrend reaching 1.35 handle although it moves in a slow pace. There is no major economic news for today from U.S. or Canada area. Hence, the current trend will remain bullish and consolidated.
  23. Andrea ForexMart
    Sluggish Trades Affect Germany’s Economic Growth The economic growth of Germany slowed down by 0.2 percent in the third quarter even though both the government and consumer spending has significantly increased. Mainly due to the feeble foreign trading that brought an impact to Europe’s largest economy. The Government spending rose by 1.0% while the Household spending climbed by 0.4%, both adding 0.2% to GDP economic growth. However, the net foreign trade deducted 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth since exports fell by 0.4% while imports ascended by 0.2%. This implies that the companies are withholding investments in the brink of low monetary policies of the European Central Bank.
  24. Andrea ForexMart
    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: November 24, 2016 Yen has depreciated resulting to breaks on the top psychological levels as seen on different pairing with yen. However the most sensitive among all those pairs is euro against Japanese yen. There is a tendency for the European Quantitative Easing could further decline the Euro in the coming weeks. If this persists with the Resistance levels sitting atop the price movement, it is best for traders to be careful with their next move. The psychological level at 120 handle is significant for this pair which is 10 pips further than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement considered as a 16-year move for the pair. Those who are waiting to trade in higher levels, they could suspend their trading until there is a clean break seen until the bulls could push the price higher. This could become an opening to look for new psychological levels in the next move.
  25. Andrea ForexMart
    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 24, 2016 The sterling pound continues to be the sole currency that has survived the far-reaching effects of the USD’s recent surges since the GBP has continuously inched higher against the US dollar even during the US elections. The GBP/USD pair consolidated and range for the majority of yesterday’s sessions but the USD further increased during the opening of the New York session as economic releases from the US such as the Durable Goods data came out exceeding initial market expectations. The GBP/USD pair initially plummeted towards 1.2350 points but recovered immediately and broke through 1.2400 and is currently resting just below the 1.2450 region. The GBP is currently on the strong side and should the USD exhibit weakness in the coming days, then the GBP/USD is expected to rise to 1.2600 and could possibly go higher. The FOMC meeting minutes were released yesterday and has confirmed the possibility of a Fed rate hike this coming December especially since its members talked about the urgent need to increase interest rates as soon as possible. The minutes did not add much volatility to the market since it met initial market speculations. For today’s trading session, there are no important economic releases expected from both the US and the UK, and the currency pair is expected to further consolidate with bullish biases enabling it to sustain its position over 1.2400. Market players are slowly regaining their confidence in the sterling pound, and is expected to further increase in the coming sessions.
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