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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 20, 2016 Along with the positive report from the German Business climate is the strengthening of the single European currency. But the upbeat of euro was impeded by a fresh selling interest. Meanwhile, the market appeared to be calm within this week as the greenbacks slowed down towards its major rivals amid the Asian session. The EUR edged over the dollar and further recovered during the trades on Monday while the dollar continued to soften. Buyers pushed the price through 1.0475 level by which the seller’s resistance is found. The renewed selling pressure caused the pair to slid down the 1.0450 region in the post-EU open. Moreover, the pair approached the 1.0400 mark throughout the North American Trading session. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA towards a lower point. The entire moving averages manage a descending trend. Current resistance touched the 1.0450 level, support settled within the 1.0400 area. The MACD histogram declined as it indicated stronger stance for the sellers. RSI holds the oversold territory and signaled a downward movement. Should the pair remained under the level of 1.0450 in order for the market to continue its moving to enter the 1.0350 and 1.0400 regions.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 19, 2016 The decision of the BoE to remain a constant rates did not surprise the market at all, seeing the rates to exist at 0.25%. The British currency was able to gain strength in spite of the reverse movement of its American counterpart subsequent to rally that took place on Friday. Moreover, the sterling had a stronger stance as it bounced off its losses during the trades on Friday. The current rebound are considered as bear’s activity in selling its stock in order to gain despite of the sharp rise last week. Recovery seems weak and even there is a dollar retracement, the greens established a solid position generally. The 4-hour chart showed that the price tested the 200-EMA, while the 50-EMA headed towards a lower level, both 100 and 200- day moving averages sustained a bullish pattern. Resistance is seen at the 1.2500 region, support is at the 1.2400 level. The MACD histogram increased which means a weak position for the sellers. RSI stayed in the oversold levels. It is best to go short within the 1.2400 handle as its first target. In case that a price consolidation arise below the first target, it is expected that the GBP/USD will moved in the 1.2300 mark. However, a break on top of the 1.25 handle would weaken the U.S dollar. The pound have the tendency to expand its recovery through 1.2550.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 19, 2016 The trade balance in the Euro area declined in October, same scenario with the volume of exports but the import volume increased despite the decrease in the value of European currency. Moreover, the euro made a recovery on Friday. Traders broke the price and reached 1.0450 as they made some reversal on its previous losses. Meanwhile, buyers were unable to regain the level which caused an ascending motion of impetus to fade thereupon the price move towards a lower area. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. The entire moving averages headed lower. Resistance touch the 1.0450 range, support lies at 1.0400. The MACD histogram strengthened which means the positions for the sellers softened. RSI is in the oversold territory which indicates for another downward trend. According to speculations, the market will remain in the pressured area in case that EUR/USD fail to push the price higher, in return, the pair is expected to establish a weak point. The next target of the sellers is 1.0350 and 1.0400.

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 15, 2016 The New Zealand dollar depreciated as more investors go for safe haven assets since commodity prices dropped in spite of the tension brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week. The pair NZD/USD weakened by 17 points to 0.6698 after the greenback rebounded since the decline on Friday influencing the cross trades while the commodity prices remain low. Currencies that are heavily influenced by commodities dropped to its lowest recorded rate for more than six years because of a drop in oil prices. Concerns in U.S. Junk bonds reemerged while majority are feeling pressured by the Fed's policy meeting this week. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve Open Committee (FROMC) will proceed with the rate hike since the close to zero policy in December 2008 as the traders rely on hints for future changes. The New Zealand's BNZ-BusinessNZ performance of services index for November will be announce today. While, Industrial production will also be released today from both Europe and Japan, as well as Tankan manufacturing index will be publicized by Japan.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 13, 2016 The pair EUR/USD traded lower this day with a tight range and low volume of trading. The major players are on the sidelines waiting for Fed’s final announcement. The final CPI resulted lower than the expected 0.3% from the actual 0.1% reading. This shows the inflations date for wholesalers. The most recent German ZEW survey indicates augmentation with an expectation at 14.2 higher than the prior 13.8. It is predicted to come in at 16.5. The market is now focus on Fed’s data with the NFIB Small Business Index forecasted at 96.7 higher than the former 94.9. The prices are anticipated to reach 0.3% compared to last month’s 0.5%. The U.S. Treasury 30-year bond should also be looked out for by traders with interest rates anticipated to be higher than the 2.90% on November 10 as it closed at 3.1748% yesterday.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 13, 2016 The GBP traded on a more positive note during Tuesday’s trading session due to the release of the UK inflation data, which came out better than the initial market expectations. The GBP/USD rose in value and was able to reach 1.2723 points before settling at 1.2710 points after increasing by +0.31% or 0.0040 points. The inflation data from the UK exhibited a 1.2% increase last November, going well above the market expectation of 1.1%. The report also showed that the main catalysts for inflation in the region were culture, recreation, and clothing. The Core CPI data came in at 1.4%, again exceeding expectations of a 1.3% data release. Due to the positive economic data from the region, analysts are now saying that UK inflation could possibly reach the initial 2% goal during the first few months of 2017. However, this improvement might not be able to have much of an impact to the Bank of England’s impending decision-making this coming Thursday with regards to its adjustments in interest rates. BoE governor Mark Carney has also previously stated that the central bank would be willing to endure inflation overshoots if this would mean an increased economic support. Wednesday’s trading session is expected to be somewhat light and muted as the Fed meeting looms close. However, since the GBP/USD had mostly positive reactions with regards to the shadow of the expected Fed rate hike, the present inflation data from the UK should be able to underpin the currency pair.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016 The USD/CAD pair remained under 1.3120 points and has now clinched its tenth day in the lower rung of the trading range. The CAD dropped during the previous trading session due to a 5% increase in crude oil prices after the OPEC meeting last week, which included non-OPEC oil-producing countries, with the participants altogether agreeing to implement production cuts on oil. Participants who were not OPEC members all agreed to productions cuts amounting to a total of 600,000 bpd, with Russia contributing a total cut of 300,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia has also expressed its possible plans to further cut back on its production of oil. However, in spite of the uncertainty on whether oil producers would be able to push through with their planned production cuts, an increase in oil prices would most definitely help in augmenting US shale production and could offset the production cuts announced last week. The Canadian trade market would be able to benefit from steady increases in crude oil prices, as the USD/CAD’s 200 EMA is presently at 1.3075 points and is in line with 1.3040 on the lower region of the trading chart. Resistance levels for the USD/CAD pair is at the 1.3175-1.3185 trading region, and the pair shows signs of becoming oversold. Market players are now expecting a retrace if the 200 EMA maintains its current levels within the week.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016 The Japanese yen experienced downward pressure during Monday’s session due to the OPEC production deal as well as the positive market sentiment with regards to the Fed rate hike scheduled this December. Japan had recently released its Machinery Order and turned out to be positive, but even this particular economic data’s effect paled in comparison to the aforementioned events which had a much larger impact on the safe haven currency. The price of the USD/JPY pair reverted from 116.00 points and went back to the 115.00 trading range. As seen in the currency pair’s 4-hour chart, the price of the USD/JPY stayed just above its moving averages and continued to inch higher. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair is seen to be at 116.00, while support levels are expected to come in at 115.00 points. The MACD indicators for the currency pair increased, showing a surge in buyer strength. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators were able to remain within the overvalued regions. The market is now monitoring the pair’s current position at 116.00, and if the USD/JPY manages to break through this region, then the pair could possibly hit the 117.00 trading region.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016 The Goods Trade Balance and Total Trade Balance established an optimistic data on Friday along with the strengthening of the sterling pound. The British currency procured some ground during the earlier trading session on Friday. Buyers drove the prices towards a higher position and tested the 1.2600 level amid the European session. The upward impetus short-lived consequent to the test, following the GBP’s rollback below the level. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the cable pair rebounded through the 50-EMA. Moving averages uphold its bullish bias. Resistance lies in the 1.2600 are, the support sits at the 1.2500 region. The MACD histogram pierced through the negative range. When the MACD stayed in the negative zone, sellers will obtain more strength. The RSI is within the neutral territory. The GBPUSD is expected to weaken upon the break below the 1.2600 level. Likewise, this could lead the prices towards 1.2500.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016 The decision of the ECB to maintain its monetary policy had strengthened the dollar. However, the euro is weakening once again after it made a dipped on its fresh monthly highs and failed to hold its gains. Meanwhile, the EURUSD headed southwards on Friday. During the EU hours, the sellers successfully broke the 1.0600 region then continued to lead the prices through the 1.0550 lower, the pair surpass this level amid the NY session. The price rebounded in the 200-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. After the euro and greens had broke both 50 and 100-EMAs, it continued to progress down in the moving averages. While the 100 and 200 EMAs preserved its bearish bias, 50 EMA rendered a neutral stance. Resistance touched the area of 1.0600, support is seen at 1.0550. The MACD histogram makes its entry point within the negative zone. Should the indicator kept unmoved in the negative area, the sellers are able to gain further strength. The RSI remains oversold. In case the prices settled below the 1.0600 support level, this will cause for a short-term downtrend. The next target of the sellers is 1.0500 and 1.0550.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016 The USD/CAD was subject to pressure for the majority of last week’s trading sessions due to the continued buoyancy of oil prices despite a short drop in the commodity’s price. Since the Canadian dollar is hugely reliant on crude oil prices and with the fluctuations in oil prices, the CAD has been subject to wildly erratic activity during the past week as well. Presently, market players are expecting that oil prices would experience further surges during this week and the USD/CAD is expected to be subject to more pressure for this week as well. The economic releases from Canada last week turned out to be pretty positive, with the Canadian trade balance data clinching the string of positive economic data from the region. The Bank of Canada has also decided last week that it will be sustaining its rates at 0.5%, signalling remarkable improvements in the Canadian economy and is expected to further improve due to future increases in oil prices. The currency pair is now forming strong support bases at the 1.3180 trading region. For this week, the Federal Reserve is set to release its statement with regards to its long-anticipated interest rate hike, and the market currently has expectations of a 0.25% interest rate hike, plus hints on whether the central bank would be increasing the frequency of its hikes this coming 2017. The US is also set to release its retail sales data, while Canada will be releasing its Manufacturing Sales data, and these are expected to induce volatility for the USD/CAD this week. Analysts are speculating that if the pair manages to sustain its place at the 1.3000 region, then the currency pair would be able to continue its upward direction especially since crude oil prices could become tapered in the near future.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016 The GBP/USD pair had a lackluster performance during the entirety of last week’s trading sessions since the sterling pound experienced constant pressure from the much stronger euro. The EUR plummeted last week after the ECB announced its plans to extend its quantitative easing program, and the EUR/GBP lost a significant amount of its value, causing the sterling pound to be affected as well. Prior to this sudden drop in value, the GBP has previously exhibited remarkable resiliency in spite of the confusion caused by the Brexit process. The GBP rose during the first part of last week and was even able to go through 1.2700 points before eventually reaching 1.2800 points before the announcement from the ECB dragged the GBP down. The GBP was also subject to added pressure due to delays in the implementation of the Brexit strategies as the Parliament is in the middle of heated debates regarding the implementation of Article 50 on the region. Since the timeline for the Brexit remains uncertain in spite of numerous meetings and debates within the Parliament, the sterling pound is expected to remain under pressure and any form of reversion should be immediately seen as a sell-off opportunity for the currency pair. For this week, the market is expecting the release of the CPI data as well as the Claimant count change data from the from the UK. The Bank of England is also expected to make a statement on whether the central bank would be maintaining its current interest rate of 0.25%, and the Fed is also scheduled to make an announcement regarding its interest rate hike, as well as a statement on whether the central bank will be adding up the frequency of its rate hikes next year. Due to the large number of economic data scheduled to be released this week, the market is expected to undergo an especially high level of volatility within the week.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 9, 2016 The policy interest rates of the European Central Bank kept unchanged while the QE program extended is extended until April 2017. The single currency jumped from the 1.0850 region and made a dip in the 1.0650 amid American session and mixed trading on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pair successfully broke the area of 1.0750 during the annual trading as it continued to expand its vertical slope. The pair gained strength in the opening of the EU hours and tested the 1.0800 level. The buyers are able to push the price higher towards the 1.0850 handle. Upon the opening of the NY session, the EURUSD suddenly exhibited a reversal. The price further rebounded in the 200-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart, while the 50-EMA pass over in the 100-EMA with an uptrend. Both 200 and 100-day moving averages still exhibited a bearish slope, seeing the 50-EMA to rise. The resistance touched the 1.0650 mark, support sits around the 1.0600. The MACD indicator grew less, favoring strength for the sellers. The RSI bounce back through the overbought position and shifted southwards. The medium term and positive sentiment are expected to be neutral upon a correction below the 1.0700. The pair will probably drop towards 1.0550.

RBA Interest Rate Decision Remained at 1.5% The central bank of Australia or also known as RBA has announced their final decision during the board meeting held every month. The Reserve Bank of Australia made a resolution to keep their rates unchanged with a record low reaching 1.50 percent. According to a site whose purpose is to compare mortgage rates, finder.com.au have made a survey among 75 experts in the industry and most them expected that rates will still be consistent. Furthermore, they support the RBA’s decision as there is no reason to demand the bank to employ such changes. Many professionals from the industry anticipate that the next move of the Australian financial system will be on the upcoming February 2017.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 9, 2016 The GBP/USD pair consolidated poorly during yesterday’s trading session after the sterling pound was adversely affected by the recent sharp drop in the value of the euro. The previous trading session initially started on a positive note for the GBP after it managed to regain some of its previous losses, causing the currency pair to hit 1.2700 points during the Tokyo and European trading session. However, the release of the ECB announcement caused the euro to incur massive losses, with the EUR/GBP pair experiencing devaluation. This then triggered the GBP/USD to retreat from 1.2700 and is currently hovering at the 1.2600 region. The GBP/USD is expected to consolidate further with a somewhat bearish note as the euro tries to recover from this very significant loss of value. The Federal Reserve will be meeting at the start of next week, and the market currently has rate hike expectations of up to 0.25%. The dollar is then expected to exhibit weakness once the announcement from the Fed is released, and market liquidity is also expected to be relatively low during this particular period. For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases from the UK, and the GBP/USD would most likely consolidate further along with a bearish stance and will be subject to added downward pressure due to the recent weakness in the value of the EUR.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 9, 2016 The USD/CAD is currently still subject to increased pressure after crude oil prices surged during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair is expected to experience this particular pressure as long as oil prices continue to fluctuate and would only cease once crude oil prices reach equilibrium. If this phenomenon happens, then the strength of the USD would most likely dominate the currency pair, and the weak value of the CAD would cause the currency pair to increase in value. Although the Canadian dollar is currently strengthening, its price is expected to drop once crude oil prices stop its fluctuations and cease from moving upwards, especially since certain issues with the NAFTA agreement will be reopened due to Trump’s re-negotiation, and any changes with this particular agreement would have a significant effect on the trade relationships between Canada and US. The CAD could also weaken due to minor market speculations that the Bank of Canada would be implementing rate cuts next year, and unless the currency pair manages to break through 1.3000, then the USD/CAD will continue to be on the upward trend with a target of 1.4000 points. There are no major economic news releases expected from the Canadian economy for today’s trading session, and while the US will be releasing its UoM Consumer Sentiment data, this particular piece of news from the region is not expected to have a major impact on the market in general. Market players will now be shifting their focus to US yields, as well as on the scheduled Fed meeting next week, where the Fed is expected to finally implement its much-awaited interest rate hike. However, this event does not automatically translate to an increase in the value of the USD, but the market is expected to receive hints with regards to the Fed’s rate hikes this coming 2017.

GBP Hits Highest Level in Two Months as Market Hopes UK Government Loses Brexit Case The sterling pound hit a two-month high after the UK Supreme Court recently concluded its second day of arguments with regards to discussing the right to commence the Brexit referendum, or the UK’s imminent separation from the EU. The GBP recorded its sixth day of increase against the USD, its second consecutive monthly gain since November. The UK government has already lost a Supreme Court case, which was about whether the Parliament should be first given the right to do a vote before the actual implementation of Theresa May’s Brexit strategies.

China Needs to Address Rising Leverage Concerns China has to implement market-oriented reforms at a faster pace to counterbalance the climb in corporate leverage including the unnecessary disturbances in the state sector according to a U.S. Treasury official. The reform is said to include the removal of ‘state guarantees’ and financial sector that disproportionate State-owned Enterprises charged to private sector firms. The country has an estimated total of $18 trillion debt that represents partly of the GDP. They see the relevance of removal of barriers that limits the participation of local and foreign companies in the service sector in line with the shift in focus from a manufacturing-centered country.

UK’s PMI Edged Higher in November The primary businesses in the service sector of U.K had an upsurge last month and its highest rate was recorded January, while the economy continued to have its current momentum despite of the fear of some companies regarding the future markets as indicated in yesterday’s survey. As the Markit/CIPS PMI handles the data relative to the economic sector as it gained 55.2 points for the month of November versus the 54.5 October data, the recent results had presented better-than-expected outcome of Reuters poll surveyed by economists.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 7, 2016 The GBP/USD pair mostly consolidated and ranged on both sides of 1.2700 points since there was no major economic news release from the UK which could compel the pair to move, and this is why the currency pair had a muted session yesterday. However, since the Federal Reserve’s meeting is expected to induce volatility in the financial market, especially since the Fed is expected to announce its much-anticipated rate hike in this particular meeting. Market players are also expecting to receive hints with regards to the central bank’s future rate hikes in order to determine the USD’s direction in the short run. However, if the meeting fails to give out hints with regards to the bank’s future moves, then this could induce a weakness in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the UK is currently bearing the brunt of the Brexit process, which is expected to last for a couple of years since this will most likely involve heated discussions with leaders from all over the eurozone in order to send out a warning to other EU countries wanting to go in the same direction as the UK. For today’s trading session, the UK Manufacturing Production data is set to be released during the European session, and market players are expecting the data to come out as positive. If the data does come out as highly positive, then traders can expect the pair to hit 1.2800 points. Otherwise, the pair could continue consolidating on both sides of the 1.2700 region.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 7, 2016 The USD/CAD consolidated and tailed the direction of oil prices during the previous trading session, with the Canadian dollar slightly easing in value after oil prices displayed corrections during the trading session. The Canadian Trade Balance data also came out yesterday and exceeded initial market expectations which helped augment the value of the CAD. The currency pair mainly consolidated on both sides of the 1.3300 trading range. The market is expecting the Federal Reserve meeting this coming mid-December, and although the Fed rate hike this December is basically minted within the market, market players are now more interested with regards to hints and guidances on the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes next year. The USD/CAD pair is expected to undergo an increase in pressure a few days prior to the Fed meeting since crude oil prices are a major factor in this issue, and another bullish stance is expected for oil prices in the coming days. For today’s trading session, Canada is set to release a rate statement from the Bank of Canada, where the BOC is expected to maintain its rates and could give traders more insight with regards to the central bank’s stance with regards to the overall feel of the Canadian economy. Traders are expecting some hints with regards to the BOC’s views on future rate cut backs in the coming months, particularly next year.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 6, 2016 The pound remains strong brought by the recent surge that conversely weakened the U.S. dollar. Traders attempting to reach between the 1.27 and 1.2750 range in today’s session. This gives a positive outlook for the pair with U.S. yields declining and greenback remaining weak. The published results of the Services PMI gave high numbers at 54.2, even more than the expected value of 55.2. This indicates the continuous growth of Britain’s economy despite leaving the European Union. Concerns regarding Brexit especially the negotiations about Article 50 is still pending on what will E.U. gain from U.K. and what will those Euro leaders offer in return. Britain sees the free market access will continue while Euro leaders are careful with the negotiations as it might be taken advantage by other countries. Once the data will be released since negotiations then the U.K. economy can be finalized. There is no major news to be published from U.K. then, the current price trend will continue. Traders could move the rate towards the 1.2800 level if the greenback continues to depreciate. It is quite difficult to reach the 1.30 mark with the downtrend being strong. If the rebound ends, the price could further go down.

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