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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017 The American dollar was able to rub out its losses versus the euro prior to the speech of Yellen yesterday. The greens further acquired some support from the consumer price index of U.S which met the expectations of investors. Moreover, the decision of the ECB about its interest rate will be announced later this day. The market structure remained to be bullish on Wednesday. The single European currency executed an upside impulse and return from its weekly high towards 1.0716. The ongoing rebound is deemed to be corrective during the profit-taking behind the current rally. The EUR/USD retreated under the 1.0700 level amid morning trades on Wednesday and it hovered throughout the level as the EU session took place. The 4-hour chart shows the price resumed its advancement on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs continued to be bullish while 200-EMA stayed on the neutral position shown in the same time chart. Resistance sits at 1.0700, support lies at 1.0650 region. The MACD histogram falls which indicate weak position of the buyers. The RSI oscillator kept around the overvalued territory. The pair is expected to moved near the immediate support 1.0650. In case the level breaks, the support will return to 1.0600. However, the EUR will receive short-term support as much as 1.0500 remained intact.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017 Hard Brexit issues continued to affect the cable pair. The British currency weakened in spite of the upbeat in the labor market data as the unemployment stat maintained its rate and Claimant Count Change rose. The sterling is in the red versus its American rival on Wednesday. The GBP/USD climb the edge of the overbought area and pointed downwards amid Asian hours. Sellers take out the 1.2400 level during the morning trades and tested the mark 1.2300 in the EU session. However, the mark stalled the progress of sellers. Having touched the level, the price reduced and stayed on top of the region prior to the onset of NY trading. According to the 4-hour chart, spot bounced off to 200-EMA. The entire moving averages moved downwards. Resistance highlighted 1.2400 region, support entered 1.2300 area. The MACD slowed down which favored seller’s strength. RSI kept intact in the overbought zone. Moreover, the 4-hour chart showed a prevailing bearish tone.The primary target 1.2200 showed some signs as it will be going short followed by the consolidation phase, the pair is expected to move ahead through 1.2100 handle.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017 The Australian Dollar presented some optimism compared with its U.S peer that receives support from the dynamic pricing of oil. The awaited data from the labour market is deemed to support the Aussie at the same time. The tone of the market remains to be positive. The AUD/USD is confined on its 2-week highs near the 0.7550 level. The price hovered around a very tight range and tends to go into a lower position. The 4-hour chart showed the spot stick on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs preserved its bullish tone while 200-EMA is flat. Resistance hit 0.7550 mark, support is found at 0.7500 range. MACD lied in the same level which confirmed buyer’s strength once again. The RSI is currently on the consolidation period and entered the overvalued zone. Forecasts mentioned for a further short-term downward correction. In case the closing trades are set under 0.7750, the price will impose a sell signal. The possible target of the bears is 0.7500.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 18. 2017 The JPY increased significantly in value against the USD after the majority of investors fled the USD after Donald Trump expressed his concerns that the US dollar might be becoming too strong for the US economy to handle. The US 10-year Treasury Yields plummeted to 2.307% during the early hours of yesterday’s trading session, possibly its lowest intraday levels since November 2016. This has then lended support for the bears of the USD/JPY pair after the currency pair traded at the lower regions of 112.67 points before making a slight recovery. However, there came a slew of negative US data, such as the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which dropped to 6.5% from its previous reading of 9.0%. This reading is indicative of slower business growth in the region for this month. Since the USD/JPY was able to extend over 114.00 points, the currency pair is more than ready to extend sideways. The pair’s 4-hour chart shows that its momentum indicator retains its bearish stance and is still within the negative side of the chart, while RSI indicators for the currency pair are pointing to the downside. The 100 SMA for the USD/JPY pair has also lowered significantly. Support levels for the USD/JPY are expected to manifest at the 112.65 points, while resistance levels could possibly appear once the pair hits 113.35 points.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017 The EUR received a much-needed boost from yesterday’s trading events, wherein the USD plummeted and weakened while the sterling pound regained its previous losses across the board. This has then caused the EUR/USD pair to break through the 1.0600 barrier after quite a time and even went up as high as 1.0700 points, where it traded momentarily before settling just below 1.0700 points. In spite of the fact that Theresa May has indeed announced that the UK is headed for a hard Brexit process, the concerns surrounding this particular occurrence have somewhat diminished, prompting investors to pull out from the USD and onto high-risk areas such as the stock market. The US dollar has since then weakened, and the clarity of the Brexit process has helped in pushing the euro higher. Although the hard Brexit would most probably have an adverse effect on eurozone trades, the renewed clarity of the process has helped placate investors and has created upward support for the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is now seen to possibly reach the 1.0850 trading region. There are no major economic readings set to be released today from the eurozone, but the US will be releasing its Core CPI and CPI data during the New York session, and these will be closely monitored by investors since a string of good economic data could increase the chances of a Fed rate hike in the near future.

Pound Surges, USD Plummets After Trump, May Comments The sterling pound finally increased in value after a long slump after UK PM Theresa May outlined her plans for the hard Brexit process, therefore clearing up some of the Brexit-related confusions and placating investors. Meanwhile, US president-elect Donald Trump has recently commented on the strength of the dollar, saying that the USD’s current value might be “too strong” for the US economy to handle. This has then prompted USD investors to vacate the dollar and move to riskier assets such as stock markets and has caused the dollar to drop in value.

India’s Demonetization Impacts the Economy India presented consecutive growth for less than 7 percent in the past three-quarters during December 2012 and June 2013 based on the statement from an India economist at Soc Generale, Kunal Kumar Kundu. SocGen also mentioned the fiscal growth rate of the country for 2017 is 6.6 percent versus the previous result of 7.3 percent. The bank further expects for a 7.2 percent, lesser than the earlier prediction of 7.7 percent, for the fiscal year 2018 which will end on March 2019. India laid out its demonetization program since November with more than 50 days from now, causing an 86% impact on the currency circulation within the country. The 500 ($7.35) and 1,000 ($14.70) rupees were replaced with 500 and 2,000 rupee notes. The Jakarta-based investment firm reviewed the research from All India Manufacturers' Organization (AIMO), which showed that there are 35% job losses within the small scale and micro industries and suffered 50% decline in the revenue, 34 days after the demonetization program is set forth. However, in March 2017, the figures will likely drop into 60% in employment while 55% reduction in revenue as stated by AIMO, it’s because these sectors are highly dependent on cash transactions.

Chinese Government’s Countermeasure for Decline in Home Prices Residential property in Guangzhou climbed by 0.7 percent in December according to the report from Bureau of Statistics’ data. It is the only city who opposed the deflation program of residential properties in China. Twenty local and provincial officials have seeked out counter measures to control loans and restrict second-home buyers to lessen the risk of elevated prices that may lead into dire repercussions. When this countermeasure has been implemented home prices from first and second tier cities steadied implying a positive change for the economy. As for the city of Beijing, he pledged that the prices of new homes will be kept unchanged for this year.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017 The Prime Minister of UK, Theresa May laid out few ground rules yesterday regarding the possible flow of the Brexit process. Global risks were also expected to lessen and in whatever time it might occur, it will likely weigh on the dollar. The greenbacks were seen to be on its weaker stance prior this event that will hit the currency much harder. This will caused for the USD/CAD to test 1.3000 over and over, there is also a sudden solid bounce upwards. The USD continued to suffer from the drawbacks due to the risky environment from Trump’s administration which continue to confuse traders and investors because of its vague plans. Moreover, the expected thrice rate increase of the Fed will likely be supported by the dollar with the medium and long term, however the near-term risk that surround the new US government causes the dollar to soften. Another test of lows is assumed to occur in case the Canadian data will present an optimistic result. Since the economic data from the region is relatively strong and identify whether this upbeat is from the BOC statement about rate policy or from the media conference of the BOC Governor. Furthermore, the BOC is scheduled to hold its rate for today, in case the statement came in hawkish, the 1.3000 level are needed to test again.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017 The GBP/USD pair exhibited heightened volatility during the previous trading session as the dollar lost strength and the sterling pound regained much of its footing in the market. Theresa May’s speech yesterday helped in clearing up some of the murkier parts of the Brexit process, and this has helped in placating various investors and has minimized concerns surrounding the Brexit process, thereby increasing the value of the sterling pound. This has then prompted investors to pull out their funds from the USD, thereby causing the dollar to drop in value. Theresa May has highlighted in her speech yesterday that the UK will indeed be going for a hard Brexit and will be eliminating any kind of access from the eurozone. However, the PM has reiterated that the UK government will be negotiating with eurozone leaders in order to have a different kind of trade relations with the European bloc. Since this has eliminated confusions surrounding Brexit matters, thereby increasing the pair’s volatility levels. The GBP/USD pair initially dipped to 1.2015 points prior to Theresa May’s speech but quickly climbed up to a daily high of 1.2414 points. However, there are still a handful of concerns surrounding the Brexit process, and the expected invocation of Article 50 is also seen as a possibly risk for the stance of the currency pair as well as the UK economy. As such, these are expected to continuously pressure the GBP in the next few days. For today’s session, UK will be releasing its claimant count change data as well as its average earnings data, while US will be releasing its CPI data later today. It remains to be seen whether these data sets would be continuing the string of good economic data during the past few days. If the UK data comes out as positive, then this push the pair upwards to 1.2500 points, although this might not be enough to actually push the currency pair beyond this particular barrier.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 17, 2017 The EUR/USD pair traded weakly during the previous trading session with the weak euro having more effect on the currency pair than the recent dollar weakness. The international economy is now very concerned with UK’s hard Brexit process, since this could spell disaster not only for UK but also for countries within the eurozone. Although the hard Brexit could have less negative effects for the UK, this could instead affect EU countries since most of them are doing business with UK, and the removal of a free trade zone with UK and the rest of the EU could become very disastrous for a lot of EU countries. This was one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair corrected largely during yesterday’s session and plummeted down to 1.0600 points yesterday and even went lower for some time. The currency pair could have experienced much larger corrections if not for the US bank holiday yesterday. For today’s trading session, there are no important economic data coming from the eurozone but Theresa May will be speaking during the New York session with regards to the guidelines of the expected hard Brexit. May’s speech could have a negative effect on the value of the euro and traders are expected to take extra caution when it comes to trading with this particular currency pair.

EUR/NZD Technical Analysis: January 17, 2017 A break higher than the minor resistance of 1.5007 is seen from 1.5235 level. This is followed by a next break at 1.5193 completes the second wave towards the 1.5837 third wave level. Beyond the third level indicates a long-term position while trying to confirm the latest correction completes the zig-zag correction. On the other hand, the support levels could go towards the 1.4778 level before the next unexpected surge comes in. Currently the Resistance level of the pair comes in at 1.5007 then 1.5050 towards 1.5193 levels while the Support level is seen at 1.4841 then 1.4810 towards the 1.4778 levels. The Pivotal turn is at 1.4895 level with buying opportunity when the price breaks more than the 121.687 level.

Economic Assessment Shows A Moderate Growth of Japan’s Economy The Bank of Japan economic assessment shows a positive outlook in its quarterly report on Monday. Three out of nine regions saying giving a moderate economic recovery while other regions stay the same because of higher private consumption and increase in demand from Emerging Asian countries. On the other hand, retails sales increased in November with the tightening of the labor market as wages rises as well. This the first time after seven quarters passed with BOJ raising its assessment for different regions implying that the country is in its way to recovery at a moderate pace. It is anticipated by the analysts that the central bank will delay its planned stimulus in the next months as the economy moves having an optimistic future for the country.

Oil Prices Amp Up as the Dollar Weakens Oil prices edged higher as the dollar weaken and the expectations about Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) en masse with other producers will reduce its output since it's part of the deal in curbing the worldwide overproduction. According to traders the prices appears to be buoyant due to the sluggish stance of greens which made fuel cost cheaper for countries that utilize foreign currencies The oil further accumulated support from the issued reduction for crude production which includes major producers in Russia. OPEC also mentioned that they would cut down the quantity they produced with 1.2 million barrels each day to 32.5 million bpd starting 1st of January. However, there are assumptions that the Austria-based company will not totally execute the declared cutback whereas the agreement of 50 to 80 percent are adequate to support petroleum purchase.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2017 The GBP/USD closed the week with a sluggish stance and struggled to maintain its gains. These events put on some fears against the pound bulls because this will weigh over the Cable upon the return of dollar’s strength. The pair stayed below the 1.2200 on Friday until the weekend took place which triggered indications for a hard Brexit. This caused for the pair to create a large gap and traded shortly under 1.2000. The strong economic data of the UK shown for the previous months did not influenced the sterling’s value at all. However, it is deemed that the British currency is able to withstand its current situation and will accumulate gains afterwards. Looking forward, the bulls still needs to endure the worst impact as the bears tend to insurge. The hard Brexit cause risk and confusion for the investors which made them think twice prior pound purchase. In the last two weeks, there are news about the UK's possibility to employ hard Brexit, whereas, PM May’s speech is highly anticipated within this week. This event brought the Britain’s economy a tough time but we believe the country will become much stronger eventually. For today, we expect no new UK economic release and losses is further expected with a fundamental near-term target of 1.17.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2017 The USD/CAD remained to trade close on its range lows on the back of the dollar’s strength recovery. While the prices of oil appeared to have an optimistic result which assisted the CAD keep in the short term. The pair plunge under the 1.3100 level following the extensive weakening of the dollar, however, it immediately found buying pressure which supported the pair to return on top of 1.3100. Over the past few months, the USDCAD showed a consistent uptrend and every correction met a prompt and strong bounce which seems to be repetitive. The way towards the 1.400 medium target suggest a slow progress and the main uptrend supported the bulls to purchase every correction. Recently, the pair have acquired more buyers and there are banks that started to advise their clients regarding the 1.40 target. The strong Canadian data with a weak economy of the country is the reason why traders are directed to maintain a hard clean break under 1.3000 which signals that an uptrend has ended. There are no major economic data from Canada for this day since it was a bank holiday in the United States. It is further expected for a consolidation and ranging close to the range lows today.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017 The release of economic data from the US last Friday lended some much needed support for the US dollar. The retail sales data dropped in value and failed to meet market expectations, while the data for the Producer Price Index came out on a highly positive note and exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, the EUR continued to incur losses in spite of upbeat data coming from the European Union, such as the German Wholesale Price Index as well as the Spanish Consumer Price Index. The euro tried climbing up during Friday’s session but was able to regain its upward bias during the Tokyo session after euro sellers encountered a price barrier at 1.0600 which then caused the EUR to drop in value. As the London session commenced, the EUR/USD pair rose and hit 1.0650 points, with the euro regaining all of its previous losses during the opening of the North American trading session. The price of the currency pair continued its climb and exceeded its moving averages as seen in the 4-hour chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are currently pointing in an upward direction, while the 200 EMA stayed within neutral territory. Support levels for the EUR/USD are projected to be at 1.0600, while resistance levels are expected to be at 1.0650 points. If the EUR/USD pair is unable to exceed 1.0650, then this could cause selling interest for the pair to return. However, if the pair drops and breaks through 1.0600 points, then traders are advised to monitor 1.0550 and 1.0500 points. The EUR/USD will only be able to recover if it is able to sustain its stance at 1.0650 points.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017 The USD regained its previous losses following the release of a highly positive Producer Price Index data, while the sterling pound dropped in value as a response to dollar strength and the recent uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process. The GBP/USD pair lost its momentum as it reached over 1.2100 during the early trading sessions last Friday. As the European trading session opened, the pound regained its losses and buyers induced the pricing of the currency pair to increase and reach 1.2200 points during the European session. However, the pair’s momentum faded almost immediately afterwards, with the GBP extending its losses up to 1.2118 points. The moving averages for the currency pair were all able to sustain its bearish stance, and resistance levels for the GBP/USD pair are expected to be at 1.2200 points. Meanwhile, support levels are expected to be at 1.2100 points. The GBP/USD pair could revert back its losses if it manages to regain its strength at the 1.2200 trading range. If the currency pair will be able to exceed this particular value, then this could cause the bulls for the currency pair to drive the value of the pair towards 1.2300. On the other hand, if the pair drops and moves toward 1.2100, then this means that seller strength will be returning and will cause the pair’s price to plummet further towards 1.2000 points.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017 The USD has attempted to regain its losses against the Japanese yen during the previous trading session as the market went unaffected by a slew of highly positive economic data from China, namely Exports and Imports data, as well as the Chinese Trade Balance data. During the Tokyo trading session last Friday, the USD was able to regain its upward balance following its recent decline, while buyer strength manifested positive bid stances which caused the pair to exceed 115.00 points prior to the opening of the North American session. But this upward movement eventually lost its momentum which then caused the USD/JPY pair to drop back to lower than 115.00 points. Traders also induced the currency pair to drop further to 114.00 points during the middle of the New York trading session. The USD/JPY pair was able to test the 50 EMA in the hourly chart. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY is situated at 115.00, while support levels are expected to be at 114.00 points. For the next trading session, the USD/JPY pair could possibly decrease further in value and could hit 114.00 up to 113.00 points unless buyer strength could help the currency pair to consolidate just above 116.00 points.

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Oil Records Highest 6-Week Gains as KSA Cuts Back on Oil Production Oil prices increased in value and has recorded its largest two-day gains within the six-week mark as Saudi Arabia prepares to cutback on its oil production way more than what was initially required as stated in the OPEC meeting a few weeks ago. Saudi’s Energy Minister has already stated that the country has already minimized its oil output to only less than 10 million barrels per day which is more than what was previously agreed on between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers as part of efforts to curb down oil production across the globe.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017 The US dollar took the spotlight yesterday as the market reacted wildly to Donald Trump’s press conference during the latter part of the New York trading session. The market was initially subdued during the London and Tokyo trading sessions since the market was generally looking forward to gauge Trump’s demeanor, as well as to decipher his administration’s plans for the next 4 years and to see whether Trump will actually be pushing through with his proposed policies during his campaign. However, Trump went in for a very disappointing run as he displayed his usual tactlessness and brashness and even highlighted his desire to build a Mexican border within two years. This move was wholly unexpected by the market, and this caused the USD to crash and plummet across the board. The GBP/USD pair, which has been languishing in the bottom rungs of the market for the past 2 months, was able to immediately recover its losses and was able to push through 1.2200 points and even reached 1.2250 before finally settling at just under 1.2200 points. Since there are no major news releases expected from the UK for today, the previous market trend is expected to dominate today’s trading sessions. The bulls could possibly profit from a solid upward move from the GBP/USD pair if the pound would be able to break through 1.2300. Otherwise, the currency pair could be merely subject to short-term corrections.

China Exports Dropped in December According to the official data released on Friday, the exports of world’s second biggest economy worsen trader’s expectation in December since the global trade kept its weak stance unchanged, while the imports growth were reduced. Moreover, the exports for the month declined by 6.1 percent on-year in terms of dollar-denominated circumstances. Compared with the previous month of 0.1 percent hike as per report from Reuters on Friday cited in the official stats as well. Last year, imports rose by 3.1 percent versus 6.7 percent increase in November. Whereas, the trade balance on December reached $40.82 billion against $44.61 billion for the past month. However, economist polled by Reuters assessed the exports will lose 3.5 percent, imports will rise 2.4 percent and the monthly trade balance will arrive at $46.50 billion.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017 The USD/CAD pair exhibited additional corrections during yesterday’s trading sessions as the US dollar weakened significantly following the press conference of president-elect Donald Trump. The market initially expected Trump to give hints on his proposed economic, fiscal, and monetary policies but instead disappointed market players after he merely talked about his personal interests and his business enemies. This then caused the dismal drop in the value of the dollar. The stock market was able to recover slightly towards the end of the session, but the same could not be said for the US dollar. As oil prices managed to regain its losses during yesterday’s session, this has proved to be good news for the Canadian dollar since this lended the CAD some much-needed support and has triggered the USD/CAD pair to reach just under 1.3200 before settling to 1.3150 points. The economic news release from Canada came out better than what the market expected, and since oil prices are now looking good, these are expected to provide susbstantial support for the CAD in the long run. The USD/CAD pair could possibly test the 1.3000 level due to the recent weakness in the USD For today’s session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy but we have the unemployment claims data from the US which will be released during the North American trading session. However, the most dominant market trend today would most likely still be the effects of the recently concluded press conference, and this is why the pair is possibly up for more weakness and volatility for today.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 11, 2017 The sterling pound merely continued its previous activity of consolidation and ranging albeit with no clear direction as of the moment. The range of the GBP/USD is tightening further as we speak, and the market is expecting an explosion any time soon. However, this major event’s direction has yet to be seen but it can be assured that there is a movement by up to 300-400 pips. However, the risk for the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain in the downward direction due to the weak GBP and strong uptrend in the USD. However, the recent strength of the USD is expected to be tested today during Trump’s press conference since the market will be closely monitoring Trump’s approach with regards to a number of issues. If Trump decides to take the diplomatic route, then this could trigger a boost in the value of the USD, thereby putting immense pressure on the GBP/USD pair, even though the sterling pound is still currently undergoing pressure from the various confusions surrounding the Brexit process. The UK is set to release its manufacturing production data for today’s trading session, and this will be an indicator of whether the UK will be able to maintain its current trend of positive data releases which are not yet affected by the Brexit process. If this particular data comes out as negative, then this could increase the pressure on the sterling pound.