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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017 The GBP/USD took a heavy hitting during the previous session as the pair’s bulls were unable to create a continuously good run for the pair since every time a bounce in the pair manifests, the pair immediately drops as it is met with major selloffs. There are still overshadowing concerns with the currency pair since the Brexit process is still ongoing, and this ensures that the GBP/USD pair will be unable to go higher for quite some time. The GBP/USD pair was hit even more harder yesterday after rumors that Scotland is currently planning to implement another referendum in their favor in order to discern whether it would still be beneficial for them to continue becoming part of the UK. If this happens, then this would be disastrous for the UK economy since other parts of the UK might also be encouraged to do the same. This is probably the worst that could happen to the UK, especially since Scotland had initially voted to remain part of the European Union but was outvoted by the majority of UK members. But then further confirmation of this particular rumor never happened, and this caused the GBP/USD pair to bounce back from 1.2400 and is currently trading at just under 1.2450 points. There are no major news releases expected from the UK today but the US will be releasing its Preliminary GDP data and consumer confidence data. The currency pair would most likely remain under pressure for today, with the 1.2500 barrier presenting a possibly limit to any kind of uptrend in the pair.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017 The USD/CAD had a strong bullish trade during the previous session after the bulls were able to regain its dominance over this particular currency pair. The bulls had previously attempted last week to gain control over the pair after the release of a dismal retail sales data from the Canadian economy but was eventually unable to do so after the release of a very strong CPI data. The bulls had also attempted to break through yesterday but has failed from last week’s range highs. The currency pair’s strong resistance and support barriers of 1.3060 and 1.3000 respectively has led the market to believe that the USD/CAD pair is in for some major uptrend and is evident of the importance of the support barrier with regards to the struggle between the pair’s bulls and bears. Since the bears have constantly failed to break through this pair, the pair’s bears are currently in full dominance of the USD/CAD. The USD/CAD was previously consolidating within the 1.3100 barrier but a surge in the value of the USD helped in boosting the currency pair following’s Trump’s statement that he will be adding up the country’s infrastructure spending. The pair eventually increased in value after oil prices somewhat dropped in value. This drop in oil prices could cause trouble for the USD/CAD pair in the short and medium term since Canada is very reliant on oil prices. The pair’s bears could become seriously affected once the dollar strength and weak oil prices come together since this could trigger the pair to move significantly upwards. There are no major news coming from the Canadian economy today but the pair could get some volatility from the US consumer confidence data and Preliminary GDP which will be released today. The USD/CAD could possibly consolidate within 1.3100-1.3200 points with a bullish undertone.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017 The market saw a very dismal durable goods data reading while Trump continues to further delay his long-awaited tax cut policies, thereby contributing to the further dwindling of the value of the US dollar. As a reaction to this particular phenomenon, the EUR/USD pair was able to reach 1.0630 points in a matter of a few hours and seems poised to move further. However, the US dollar suddenly reverted its losses for no apparent reason at all and this caused the EUR/USD to drop further to 1.0600 before settling at just over 1.0580 points. Some market analysts are crediting this sudden surge in the dollar’s value to Trump’s previous statements regarding the infrastructure increases, a favorite campaign topic of Trump during his candidacy. Previously, there have been rumors swirling around that this infrastructure policies would not come into effect until 2018, but since Trump has already re-discussed this particular proposal, the market has since then been speculating that the increase might be implemented within the year which could help in keeping the buoyancy of the market. The USD has been able to revert its losses as a result but the real determinant here would be the rate statement next month as well as the FOMC rates. Now that the market is slowly shifting its focus from Trump’s policies towards the move of the Federal Reserve, it is highly likely that the market’s movements will be relying on the Fed’s decision on when they will be implementing the next rate hike. There are no major releases coming from the eurozone today but the US will be releasing its consumer spending data as well as its Preliminary GDP data today which could bring in added volatility to the USD and affect the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is expected to continue consolidating with bullish undertones for today.

Expected Shift in Crude Futures as Much as $2B Will Put an End to Oil Glut In the upcoming week, the passive investment funds are expected to rise to $2 billion from long-term to short-term crude futures, while the energy market surges after OPEC output reduced its supply. This is expected to put an end to global oil glut accumulated over two years of price war. Excessive oil supply in international inventories drove the prices to multiple year lows. The Brent contract LCOK7 price established at $56.31 a barrel on May, while the LCOM7 price settled at $56.55 a barrel in June.On the other hand, the limit for the West Texas Intermediate crude remains the same. The gap between the first month and the subsequent month on Brent contracts LCOc1-LCOc2 has tightened from 79 cents down to 5 cents. However, both June and December contracts LCOM7-Z7 traded closely on Friday.

The current Money Fall contest has already started on February 27, 2017 and will end on March 3, 2017. You can register for the next competition which will take place from March 6, 2017 to March 10, 2017 Note: Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017 The Australian currency declined following the announcement made by the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe confirming that the Central Bank will not approve for an interest rate hike in the near future. Regardless of the positive trend in general, bulls were unable to climb higher. Having posted its recent highs within the 0.7739 region, the price weakened and turned back towards 0.7700 where sustained a consolidated position throughout the night trades. The increasing demand for the US dollar caused the Aussie to break under 0.7700 driving the AUD to 0.7650. The 50-EMA was being tested by the price as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 moving averages moved upwards. Resistance is shown at 0.7700, support is found at 0.7650. MACD decreased indicating a sell signal. The RSI appeared to be neutral. The AUDUSD pair is required to beef up and take a grasp into the 0.7700 level as a means of strength recovery. The recent weakness is regarded as corrective. There is a chance to buy the dips. A break under 0.7650 will ease the movement of the upward pressure. A move on the underside of 0.7550 will neutralize the buying pressure and open possibility for further weakening.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017 The British currency preserved a bid tone close to its recent highs. The sterling gained strength following the favorable results for the BBA Mortgage Approvals along with the USD retracement. The GBPUSD lacks momentum and failed to touch resistance region 1.2600. The bulls stalled near the 1.2565 level due to failure in driving the spot upwards. The pair is confined in a tight range around 50 pips amid the European trades. A bout of renewed selling interest developed amid EU morning trades. The Cable weakened versus the greenbacks moving near 1.2500 area. The GBP/USD bounced back from the 200-EMA and surpassed the 50 and 100-EMA higher viewed in the 4-hour chart. The GBP resumed its development over the moving averages. The 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while the 100-EMA preserved a bearish pattern indicated in the same chart. Resistance is set at 1.2600, support pierced the 1.2500 mark. The MACD indicator increased which confirmed strength for the buyers. RSI weakened and descended. Bullish sentiment would likely prevail. A trend on top of 1.2550 would restore the bullish tone through 1.2600 – 1.2650.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017 The EURUSD pair strengthened versus the sluggish U.S dollar. The greenbacks were kept below the pressured area during the mid-week of trading following the FOMC minutes and the comments made by Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin regarding tax reform. The growth gained by the pair did not help the major and further hovered around the descending channel. The buyers lead the price towards its upper limit. The recovery sustained overnight tried to move in the underside of the 1.0600 hurdle during the morning trades of the EU session. The upside of the pair lost its steam in searching for renewed offers within the level. Buyers attempted to make a gap on top of 1.0600 prior the opening of the New York trades. Moreover, the price surpassed the 50-EMA and continued to stay over the moving averages as outlined in the 4-hour chart. The 100-EMA carried a downward crossover through the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100-EMAs headed lower and the 200-EMA bounced along the neutral zone. Resistance is at 1.0650 region, support settled in the 1.0600 mark. The MACD histogram acquired growth which signaled weak stance of the sellers. RSI is considered neutral. A trend above the 1.0600 range indicates support buyers in sending the market through 1.0630 – 1.0650. Likewise, a return to the 1.0550 mark may open doors to move near 1.0500.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 23, 2017 The rising concerns regarding France presidential elections and increasing rate hike expectations of the Fed scheduled in March caused the European currency to remain under the pressured area. Meanwhile, the Business Climate of Germany showed positive figures exceeding its expectations in spite of the bias forecast. The common currency reversed few of its losses during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The EURUSD highlighted 1.0550 level but the selling pressure within EUR kept intact and drove the spot towards its fresh lows. The rebounded the 1.0550 and declined to 1.0500 amid EU morning trades. The 4-hour chart showed that the 100-EMA tested the 200-EMA. While the 100 and 50-EMAs preserved a bearish sentiment and on the other hand, 200-EMA is neutral. The price extended its development under the moving averages. Resistance settled around 1.0550, support approached the 1.0500 area. MACD indicator softened which confirmed strength for the sellers. RSI consolidated near the negative territory. A break under the mark 1.0500 will generate another lower support. A move below the handle 1.0500 would recover a bearish slope at 1.0450 region.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 23, 2017 An objective trend seems bearish. The New Zealand dollar resumed its reversal on Tuesday regaining greater portion of its previous losses. The price halted on top of the 0.7150 level as it trade in a tight range yesterday. The spot remained unsteady near its fresh highs throughout the day. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the 50-EMA made a downward crossover to 200-EMA whilst the price resumed its development on the lower area of the moving averages. Moreover, the 50 and 100-EMA drove downwards while 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern. Resistance pierced 0.7200, support plunge in at 0.7150. The MACD indicator had a dip confirming addition strength for the seller. RSI hovered around the neutral zone. The price met a support within 0.7150 loss and stalled through 0.7100.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017 The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very well during the past trading sessions in spite of the US dollar regaining the majority of its losses. The GBP/USD pair remains to be one of the most resilient currency pairs, with the pair even bouncing back significantly as the dollar exhibited weakness and managing to hold on its own once the USD strengthened. However, it is important to note that in spite of its relative strength, the GBP/USD pair is still trading within a very wide range of 400-500 pips, with the pair consistently trading within this range and not going much further. However, as the Brexit process starts to unfold and with the forthcoming invocation of Article 50, the pair might be in for some added volatility in the coming weeks. But it still remains to be seen whether the pair will be able to finally surpass its current ranges and record some significant change in trend. UK will be releasing its second GDP estimate today which is expected to give the market an inkling of the current state of the UK economy. The GDP estimate would most likely come out as somewhat positive since the economic state of the country has been well during the past periods. The FOMC minutes will also be released later today, and this is expected to be an indicator of the GBP/USD pair’s short-term trend. If the market expectations with regards to the FOMC minutes is met, then the currency pair could possibly revert back to 1.2400 points.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017 The USD/CAD has still managed to keep itself afloat in spite of a small increase in oil prices during the previous trading session. The currency pair continued to trade within its ranges, but this could be a cause for celebration of the pair’s bulls as the USD/CAD traded within its range highs with no hints of weakness whatsoever. This movement was also partly due to the recent surge in the dollar’s value which ensured support for the pair’s bulls. As of this morning, the USD/CAD has somewhat weakened in stance and spent most of the session consolidating within its range highs with no actual direction. The USD/CAD bulls are now monitoring the release of the FOMC minutes, whose hawkish outlook might possibly lend some much-needed support for the pair and finally create some sense of direction. If the minutes are able to meet market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly move towards 1.3200 and could even go beyond this range. For today’s session, we have the FOMC meeting minutes set to be released as well as the release of the US housing data. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy will be releasing its core retail sales data which will have to be closely watched by the USD/CAD bears in order for them to regain dominance over the currency pair.

Brazil Eased Inflation Rate Less than 5 percent in February Brazil lowered its inflation rate less than 5 percent halfway February for the first time since 2012. This was done to recuperate the economy after its two-year-long recession. The inflation target of Central bank comes in at 4.5 percent and they are open for further price easing. This would also be a big help for President Michel Temer who is seeking support in Congress. On one side, the consumer prices slowed down quicker than expected which could force the authorities to ease their target for 2019. The reports will be publicized on Wednesday morning (1200 GMT) and at the same time, the central bank is anticipated to curtail its rates by 75 basis points from a two-year low of 12.25 percent.

UK Policymakers Clamor for more Transparency in Offshore Territories Policymakers in the UK are pressuring UK PM Theresa May to increase transparency with regards to the business guidelines for offshore territories, including the British Virgin Islands. A total of 80 Parliament members are clamoring for amendments to the Criminal Finances Bill which is slated to be returned to the House of Commons next week. According to these Parliament members, the lack of transparency with regards to the business dealings within offshore territories such as Cayman Islands and Bermuda might be used by criminals as an advantage to hide ill-gotten assets as well as curb tax policies.

Greece Fears Economic Collapse amid Debt Crisis Greek people have withdrawn money from their accounts which exceed to £2billion as they fear the news regarding economic crash which will take place within 45 days. The Hellenic republic was alarmed about the possible scarcity of money in a period of five months because the country is affronted with repayments with an estimate of more than £5.1bn (€6bn), thus the country is unable to pay the total amount without any aid or restructuring. Greece citizens were forbidden to take more than £1,540 (€1,800) every month from their accounts, however, the currency had continuously depleted at a very fast rate. There are speculations that the Government will fail to pay for the next settlement due in July. Individuals which involves tourists were strained to wait in line in order to obtain cash from their respective banking machines.

Thai Economy Records Slowest Annual Growth as Consumption Wanes Thailand’s economy recorded its slowest growth rate in over a year during the previous quarter as the country’s private consumption waned. Thailand’s GDP data showed an expansion by 3% during the past quarter, its slowest annual recorded move. Thailand’s economy surged by 3.2% in 2016 as compared to 2.5% two years ago. This slow GDP growth was mainly attributed to the death of the Thai king followed by a major crackdown on illegitimate Chinese tourists, which also caused the country’s private consumption to drop. However, the Thai baht was among the best-performing currencies in Asia after it grew by over 2% against the USD.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017 The EUR/USD pair was subject to some nice amounts of volatility during the past week after the currency pair was mainly influenced by the dollar strength during the first half of the week, but immediately went into reversal as the latter part of the week started. The currency pair is now expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone for this week, with projected support levels at 1.0500 points and resistance levels expected to be at 1.0800 points. Last week, the EUR/USD finally looked like it turned for the better as the currency pair made a steady march towards 1.0500 after breaking through 1.0600 after a foreshadowing of a long-awaited dollar uptrend. This was also further supported by Yellen’s confirmation that the Fed will be implementing another rate hike this coming March. However, the effect of this positive news was offset by the release of the CPI data which showed weak wages data in spite of the overall data being highly positive. This turned out to be unappealing for the dollar bulls and caused the USD’s strength to die down, causing the pair to end at just over 1.0600 points. For this week, there will be a US market holiday and there are no expected data to come out from both the EU and the US for the week. The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue its current trend of ranging and consolidating for this week.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017 The NZDUSD were kept below the pressured area and resumed its decline under the 0.7200 level on Friday. Having broke the level, sellers weakened and took a pause to regain some steam attempting to make another move downwards. The major rebounded the 50-EMA towards a lower point as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The spot extended its development in the middle of 200 and 50-EMAs. The 50-EMA is trending lower, 100-EMA was neutralized and the 200-EMA moved higher. Resistance is at 0.7200, support lies at 0.7150. MACD histogram lies at the center point. If the indicator approaches the positive zone, it will provide added strength for the buyers. While an entry in the negative territory will open an opportunity for the sellers to dominate the market. RSI escaped from the overvalued area and settled around the neutral region. Should the spot surpass the 0.7200 mark higher, will negate the medium-term negative outlook. The bulls are able to drive the pair to 0.7250 handle. While a decline under 0.7150 will cause the support the sellers having a chance to continue its slide through 0.7100.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017 The technical pictures the GBPUSD to hover around the trading range of the previous week. The cable came across with a wave of selling pressure after the failure of the spot in reacquiring the psychological mark 1.2500. The British currency weakened to 1.2500 amid Asian hours and touched 1.2400 level overnight. The level prevents its losses which rejected the price higher. The pair pushed the 50-EMA lower, tested the 200-EMA and rebounded the 100-day moving averages as shown in the 4-hour chart. Furthermore, the 200-EMA seems bullish-neutral while the 50 and 100-EMA are neutralized. Resistance settled at 1.2500, support entered 1.2400 area. The MACD sits in the center point. Should the histogram move near the positive zone to provide further strength for the buyers. While an entry towards the negative territory will imply sellers capacity to manage the market. RSI departed from the neutral zone and advance south. The technicals manifested a moderate bearish signal. We projected the major will proceed towards 1.2400 and the price might decline to 1.2340 after reaching the initial target.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017 The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday despite the light market caused by the federal holiday, US President's Day. Investor’s attention was drawn towards the nation’s current political condition while expecting for the final resolution regarding the financial assistance to Greece. The upward trajectory weakened on Friday. The single European currency failed to break the 1.0680 region and reverse. During the Asian hours, the market is relatively quiet and exhibit further agility amid EU session. The demand for the greens was brought by some European traders which drove the spot downwards. The EUR steeply declined and tested 1.0650 mark during the post opening of EU trades. The aforesaid mark stalled the sellers’ action, therefore, rejected the EURUSD higher. The pair surpasses the 200-EMA lower, rebounded the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA. Moreover, the 100 and 50-EMAs headed downwards and the 200-day moving averages appeared to be bullish-neutral. Resistance lies at 1.0700, support is seen at 1.0650. The MACD indicator plunged to the positive territory and if it hovered within that area, the position of the buyers will reinforce. RSI is confined in the overvalued zone, favoring another downward trend. The major struggled to proceed upwards. A break under 1.0600 region would consider further instability to 1.0550. Should the level jump up would signal an opportunity to buy on a dip.

The current Money Fall contest has already started on February 20, 2017 and will end on February 24, 2017. You can register for the next competition which will take place from February 27, 2017 to March 3, 2017. Note: Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

Inflation in China Open Possibilities for Tighter Policies Producer price inflation in China has reached figures higher than expected bringing the price close to six-year highs as price of steel and other raw materials surged while Consumer inflation climbed to a three-year high as fuel and food prices rallied on data released on Tuesday. Both prices producer and consumer are expected to reach 6.3 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively for this year. Some analysts see this price inflation as a short-term rally with rally in the possibility for food prices to be seasonal. Moreover, the increase in price pressure in China has induced speculations of tighter monetary policy this year to boost economic growth and mainly because of credit risks concerns including leverage in the market.

Finance Minister Counters the Accusation Against ECB The European Central has been accused of altering the Euro exchange rate and this is being negated by the French Finance Minister Michel Sapin. They are believed to have a goal in completing trading and attain the competitive policy goals by a significant U.S. authority saying that Germany gains an advantage over grossly undervalued Euro for personal gains. Europe should still work harder to achieve former status prior to global financial crisis according to Sapin. Germany has to be more committed to restore into a better condition regarding its investments. At the same time, they are hopeful that the new president of the United States will recognize the significance of the European Union relationship with the United States.

The current contest has already started on February 13, 2017 and will end on February 17, 2017. You can register for the next competition which will take place from February 20, 2017 to February 24, 2017. Note: Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 16, 2017 The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined on Wednesday's trading session but was able to recover after a break out reaching a new high. It broke higher than the 0.7695 Resistance level and proceed with the upward momentum after lows at 0.7159 level. It is expected for the price to go higher in the next trading sessions towards the next target at 0.7800 zone. The key support is found at 0.7605 level and a break lower than the said level would complete the uptrend of the pair. The market could try to move towards the 0.7750 level that is found to be a resistance level for the long-term charts. Short term reversals are eminent to be become buying opportunities to be forward implying a purchase after decline may not be favorable for short-term charts. Most likely, the 0.76 level will continue to be a strong psychological level in the market.