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myregister
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (15/09) ended unchanged. Flat movement arabica coffee prices triggered by investor caution watch on US rate hike that would affect the movement of the US dollar. The lack of movement in the dollar after soft economic data in the United States: where initial jobless claims came at 260,000 for the week ending Sept. 10 were below expectations. The producer price index for August unchanged and retail sales fell more than expected. Disappointing US data releases could create an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its policy meeting in September is much more difficult. Fed officials previously have said their decisions are data-dependent. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed flat at the previous close at 1.4890 dollar positions. Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potential with the potential of strengthening by the weakening condition of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures may test the support level at 1.4600 dollar. If the price rises will break the resistance level at 1.5200 dollar.
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USDJPY pair movement on Asia session (05:30:35 GMT) observed to be sluggish after opened lower at 102.10 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now this pair is at 102.04. Previously, USDJPY had reached the range of strong support. Before this pair was keep moving weak against US dollar by the lack of economic data as the fundamental driving force to against US Dollar. But before US dollar weakened against Yen as BOJ stance which is not expected to set negative interest rates to next week. Based on analysis above it seems that USDJPY will drop to the range between 101.65-101.36, but if there is a correction then USDJPY will rise to the range of 102.20-102.60. So the normal range of USDJPY is expected to have support level at 100.87 and the resistance level at 103.42.
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Gold price movements end of Asia session (04:40:35 GMT / 11.40 pm) moves weaker after opened higher at 1315.00 in early trading (0000 GMT), now XAUUSD rolling value is at 1313.85 and seems will be weakening more. Gold prices opened lower following the trend continues the previous trading natural profit taking while US dollar is weakening. The weakening gold prices triggered a stronger stock market trading steady lifting other risky assets. It seems XAUUSD moving down to the range of 1311.83-1305.53, but if there is a correction the price of gold could climb back up to the range 1319.03 - 1325.22. So the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have support level at 1296.75 and resistance level at 1342.14.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
US Dollar in Asian trade on Friday (16/9) moves rebound after two consecutive days experienced weakness against its rivals. On previous trading US dollar depressed by a barrage of bad economic data that largely undercut expectations of Fed rate hikes in the near future. The US dollar weakened against rivals such as the pound sterling, Yen, swissfranc, and other commodities. Only against Euro, US Dollar managed to strengthen slightly after the previous trading day retreat from rally. Weakening movement of euro triggered by the Eurozone economic data released. For today's trading, US dollar will receive positive sentiment from some economic data such as the data rate of inflation as well as core CPI and initial data based on a survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. In addition, rivals minimal movement with strong fundamentals driving. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading stronger move after the start of trading Asia session opened higher at 95.25 and is now moving position at 95.27. Previous trading of US dollar was last down 0.1 percent. -
CPO trading in the stock Malaysia this Friday to commemorate Malaysia Day holiday. Earlier on Monday the Malaysian market also commemorate Eid al-Adha holiday.During the three days of trading this week, CPO prices still edged. The most-active contract November 2016, on Tuesday (13/09) the price is set to expire in 2592, on Wednesday (14/09) in 2564, on Thursday (15/09) in 2594. Thus, on a weekly basis CPO prices rose by 2 ringgit or 0.1 percent. The increase in the price of CPO on Thursday supported the weakening ringgit and rising crude oil prices Asian session.For the next trading next Monday, it is necessary to observe some important sentiment that drives the price of CPO. Malaysia boost CPO export tax in October to 6.5 percent from 5 percent in September. The tax increase for Malaysian crude palm oil exports for October is expected to weaken demand for the tropical oil, but production may be below average in the coming months to support the price. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are still depressed global supply glut concerns. Seeing the negative sentiment dominates, is expected CPO prices depressed. Many analyst estimates that the price of CPO futures at the next trade will weaken thanks to bearish sentiments. CPO futures has potential to test support at 2,550 ringgit and resistance level at 2,650 ringgit.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (15/09) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported by the weakening of US dollar and a decrease in inventories. Expectations the US Federal Reserve will raise rates at its policy meeting next week has subsided, putting pressure on the US currency, so the overnight US dollar index fell 0.23 percent against a basket of currencies. The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Arabica coffee price increases also supported the declining supplies of arabica coffee. "Prices continue to seek support from lower inventory," said Societe Generale in a report. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 rose 0.50 cents, or equivalent to 0.34 percent. Tonight will be released Data Retail Sales and Industrial Production in August that indicated weaker. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. It seems the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade is projected to rise to a potential weakening of the US dollar after the waning of US interest rate hikes.
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The price of tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange ended down on Wednesday trading. A weaker tin prices depressed by US dollar is getting stronger after dovish signal waning US interest rates. Tin prices on commodity exchanges Malaysia yesterday's trading up 0.3%. For today's trading, should be an important sentiment that can affect the movement of the price of tin. Expectations the US Federal Reserve will raise rates at its policy meeting next week has subsided, putting pressure on US currency, so the overnight US dollar index fell 0.23 percent against basket of currencies. This afternoon US dollar index is still moving down. The weakening US dollar makes the price of tin is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Analyst estimates that Malaysian tin price movement in trading the potential to strengthen further limited by the potential dollar's weakness when triggered by waning expectations of US rate hike. Price will face resistance level at 19,350 dollars. But if there is a decrease, the price of tin will face support level at 18 950 dollars.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia commodity exchanges rose on Thursday afternoon (15/09). CPO price hike this afternoon supported the weakening ringgit and rising crude oil prices Asian session. Ringgit observed to weaken against the US dollar. Couple USDMYR exchange rose 0.28 percent to 4.1357 range. The weakening ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so the request is increased. CPO price rise also underpinned by the rise in crude oil in the Asian trading session. Oil prices rebounded in early Asian trade on Thursday (15/09) after falling about 3 percent in the previous session, buoyed by a weaker US dollar. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to have increased. The contract price of November 2016 which is the most active contract rose as much as 0.5 percent and traded at 2,578 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges November 2016 Malaysia has the potential to test resistance level at 2,630 ringgit positions and then towards 2,680 ringgit. While the level of support that will be tested if prices decline is at 2,530 ringgit.
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Euro exchange rate movements on Asia session (04:45:35 GMT) weakened against US dollar after opened lower at 1.1249 in early trading (0000 GMT), Euro exchange rate is now rolling at the value of 1.1242. On Asian session EUR exchange rate weakened by profit taking move as the responds to the minimal fundamental analysis. Strong provide power for the euro dollar opponent. In the European session only final CPI data releases are expected to show the same position and is still far from the target of the ECB. SO, EURUSD moved into the range between 1.1254-1.1275, but if failed then EURUSD may fall to 1.1234-1.1210. And if it reaches 1.1275 then AUDUSD may rise towards 1.1280. And today is expected to have support level at 1.1151 and resistance level at 1.1332.
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Pound exchange rate movements of the Asian session (04:10:35 GMT ) is moving strongly against US dollar after opened lower at 1.3234 in early trading (0000 GMT), Pound rose 0.2% and rolling value is at 1.3255. Pound on Asian session is moving strongly due to gloomy expectations of Fed rate hikes that plagued US dollar. Pound would be stronger if the BOE interest rate unchanged back line with expectations. Technically it looks like GBPUSD will rise to around 1.3288-1.3335, but if there is a correction, then GBPUSD could fall down to 1.3220. So the normal range of GBPUSD pair is estimated to have support level at 1.3060 and resistance level at 1.3411.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements in European session (06:30:35 GMT) engaged weak against US dollar itself, after the price opened higher at 0.7470 in early trading (0000 GMT), right now it falls down around 3 pips, and the rolling value of Australian Dollar is at 0,7467. Australian dollar exchange rate at the end of Asia session moved negative after opened higher than the previous trading as respond to poor Australian employment change data. But now seeks a strong rebound supported by the data of unemployment rate in August and grow stronger if the US economic data to press back US dollar. Technically AUDUSD continued down to the range of 0.7441-0.7407, however if failed to reach these ranges, then AUDUSD could ascend to the range between 0.7487-0.7515. So the normal range of AUDUSD pair is estimated to have support level at 0.7385 and resistance level at 0.7535. -
Gold price movements end of the Asian session (05:30:35 GMT / 11:40 GMT) after a weak move opened lower at 1321.95 in early trading (0000 GMT), now XAUUSD is rolling at 1321.60. Gold prices opened lower which was a positive move but fell back by strong Asian markets except for Nikkei. Previous price of gold managed to rebound from the selling pressure for 5 consecutive days by expectations of Fed rate hikes. However, during the American session gold price could rise again if US dollar pressured by economic data releases. Technically XAUUSD can move up to the range of 1326.75-1332.51 . The decline of gold prices may brought this commodity to to the lower or around 1313.03-1308.22 on European Session. So the normal range of Gold today is expected to have support level at 1301.96 and resistance level at 1338.05.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
US Dollar in Asian trade on Thursday (15/9) continue weakening by the prudence of market awaits monetary policy from several global central banks such as Fed and BOJ next week as well as BOE today. Observed in the spot market only, USD on Asian session rose against euro, aussie, and canadian dollar. The US dollar weakened by fading expectations of Fed rate hikes this year at next week's FOMC meeting. The expectation collapsed byt the respond to some bad or not satisfying economic data which released last night and also today which driving a wedge. For today's trading alone, US dollar will receive negative sentiment of some economic data such as PPI , the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales m / m, Unemployment Claims, Current Account and Industrial Production m / m. The dollar index, which measures the strength US dollar against six major currencies moving trading weak after the start of trading on Asia session opened higher at 95.32 and is now moving position at 95.30. US dollar closed the previous trading down around 0.2 percent. -
USDJPY pair movement in the Asian session (06:45:35 GMT / 13:45 GMT) strong move after it opened lower at 102.42 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair's price is at 102.48. Previously this pair had reached the range of strong support. Fundamentally, the Japanese yen is still gaining strength from BOJ stance that does not weaken interest rates again in the near future, and to improve its economy tries instruments other. USDJPY estimated to drop up to the range between 101.83-101.40 however if this pair failed then the range will between 103.05-103.62. So normal range for USDJPY pair will have support level the resistance level at 100.80 and 104.16.
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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Thursday morning (15/09) closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered by the weakening US dollar.Expectations the US Federal Reserve will raise rates at its policy meeting next week has subsided, putting pressure on the US currency, so the overnight US dollar index fell 0.23 percent against a basket of currencies. A weakening US dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa becomes cheaper in other currencies.At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 27 dollars at 2,809 dollars per ton. Tonight will be released Data Retail Sales and Industrial Production in August that indicated weaker. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. So the price of cocoa futures to trade higher with the potential of further dollar weakness. This commodity has the potential to penetrate resistance level at 2,850 dollar. While support level which will be penetrated if there is a decline is at 2750 dollars.
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Oil prices rebounded on Asia trade on Thursday (15/09) after falling about 3 percent in the previous session, buoyed by a weaker US dollar. Expectations the US Federal Reserve will raise rates at its policy meeting next week has subsided. Likewise sentiment unexpected drop in US crude inventories strengthen prices. US crude inventories fell around 559,000 barrels in the week to September 9 challenging analysts' forecasts for an increase of 3.8 million barrels. On the other hand, US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate rose 10 cents, or around 0.23 percent, at $ 43.68 per barrel. Brent crude futures traded at $ 46.06 a barrel, up 21 cents, or 0.46 percent. Crude oil prices fell about 3 percent for the second consecutive day on Wednesday following an increase of 4.6 million barrels in US inventories of refined oil. This is the largest weekly increase since January and put distillate inventories in the six-year seasonal highs. Libya on the other hand is working to resolve the problem of force majeure at the port of Zueitina, showed that Libyan crude exports could start flowing immediately. Hopes that the Nigerian crude supplies also could return as offers for October-loading crude oil Qua Iboe has emerged. Analyst estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade is projected to rise with the potential weakening of US dollar after the fading hopes of US interest rate hikes. Prices are expected to penetrate the resistance between $ 44.20 - $ 44.70, and if the price drops will penetrate support range between $ 43.20 - $ 42.70.
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At the end of trading on Thursday morning (15/09), Rotterdam coal price closed up triggered by the weakening US dollar. Since the expectation for US Federal Reserve to raise rates at its policy meeting next week has subsided, putting pressure on USD, so the overnight US dollar index fell 0.23 percent against a basket of currencies. The weakening US dollar makes the price of coal sold rotterdam denominated in dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract on December 2016 which ended up at 61.55 dollars per ton. Analyst estimates that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially strengthened by the potential dollar weakness to start waning back US rate hike expectations and potentially test the resistance level at 62.00 dollars and support level at 61.00 dollars.
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At the end of trading Wednesday morning (14/09), Rotterdam coal price rises driven increase in demand. The new mining rules in China that are designed to reduce the production has created an artificial shortage and led to a surge of imports, the development coincides with the closure in the whole world for a prolonged period of low prices. China's policy that limits the production of the mine for 276 days per year, has an effect on the accumulation of coal, but signs are emerging of the rules upside down with some mines are allowed to produce additional material to help curb price rises recently. The biggest concern for the Chinese government is that the manipulation of the production may lead to a shortage of coal energy as winter approaches the north, forcing higher electricity prices. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for November 2016 in the position of 61.65 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened by 0.60 dollars or equivalent to 0.98 percent compared to the previous closing. Coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially weak with the potential weakening of crude oil with estimated US weekly crude oil inventories increased. The price of coal futures could potentially test support level at 61.15 dollars and next support at 60.65 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 62.15 dollars and then to around 62.65 dollars.
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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Wednesday morning (14/09) closed slump. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered by strengthening US dollar. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.41 percent at 95.433. US dollar rose against the yen and commodities riskier currencies like the Australian dollar and New Zealand on Tuesday after the impact of dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials fading and falling crude oil prices, boosting sentiment towards the greenback. A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract was observed to be closed down. Commodity prices closed down by -8 dollars or -0.29 percent at 2,782 dollars per ton. Analyst estimates that the price of cocoa futures for the next trade will move in a limited tendency to weaken by the potential strengthening of US dollar after dovish signal waning US interest rates. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate support level at 2,730 dollar. If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,680 dollars. While the level of resistance that will penetrate if there was a strengthening is at 2,830 dollars.
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Gold price bullish movements end at Asian session (04:40:35 GMT) after a strong move opened higher at 1318.90 in early trading (0000 GMT), now XAUUSD rolling value is at 1320.10. Gold prices opened higher but had a negative move up again by a slump in Asian stocks where the market concerns will rise as expectations of Fed rate hike in the midst of global economic conditions on the brink of recession. This concern makes the market had traded a safe haven asset. Technically XAUUSD can rise up to the range between 1323.15-1330.57, and if it is not realized then this pair may corrected to the range between 1312.55-1307.46. So analyst argued that the normal range XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1298.73 and resistance level at 1341.15.
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Oil prices rebound in Asian trade on Wednesday after falling as much as 3 percent in the previous session, after data from an industry group showed an increase smaller than expected in US crude inventories. American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in crude inventories of 1.4 million barrels for the week ending 9 September, smaller than the increase of 3.8 million barrels predicted by analysts. US government will issue an official inventory data on Wednesday night. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate rose 29 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $ 45.19 per barrel. Brent crude futures traded at $ 47.34 a barrel at 0103 GMT, up 24 cents, or 0.5 percent, from the last closing. The rise in oil prices also supported the withdrawal of a substantial further in gasoline stocks of 2.4 million barrels following a draw down of 2.3 million barrels seen last week, as reported by the API. Tonight will be released weekly crude oil inventories data by the EIA which indicated increased. If realized, it will push the price of crude oil. However, it should be observed that if the movement of US dollar continued to strengthen will push oil prices. Prices are expected to penetrate resistance between $ 45.70 - $ 46.20, and if the price drops will penetrate support between $ 44.70 - $ 44.20.
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Ending the second day forex trading this week ended a few hours ago (14/9) Euro already weakened by the strengthening US dollar; There are many economic data which make Euro weak in this three consecutive days day as ZEW survey data on the German economy and the Euro area, as well as wholesale price inflation data and German. Third, data on more dominant pressured the euro which seeks reinforced by economic data such as industrial production data Italy and the Euro area employment growth. Both of these data showed an increase in the data from the previous period. Here are some reviews of economic data released yesterday. The level of consumer prices or German inflation remained stable in August the same with previous expectations according to Destatis. Inflation rose at a pace of 0.4 percent year-on-year. But the level of German wholesale prices declined at a slower pace in August, wholesale prices fell 1.2 percent in August from a year ago, extending a 1.4 percent decline in July. This data is the slowest rate of decline since January. According to the ZEW survey of economic sentiment in August in Germany stabilized as the same position in the previous period 0,5 but under expectations of a rise to 2.8. But in the Euro area experienced an increase to 5.4 from 4.6 in the previous period, while the economists' expectations for a rise about 6.7. And positive economic data that the data region labor force growth in the second quarter where the growth in the labor market 19 member states rose 0.4 percent from the same position in the first quarter, but compared with the same period the previous year only 0.3 per cent. For today's trading movements in the euro will continue weakening due to the lack of strong fundamental data to influence the market, there is only minor data such as French inflation data, the euro area industrial production. The data is expected to give even this negative sentiment for the Euro rate.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Venturing to forex trading on Asian session on Wednesday (13/9) Australian dollar exchange rate rebounded from a poor trading position despite the country's economic data releases indicate that the data is lower than previous trade. However, the strong force of US dollar by expectations of Fed rate hikes made aussie tend to be depressed back. Fundamental indicator for Australian Dollar is very weak to move quickly beat his rivals as well as against the US dollar. Oil prices that often give power to the aussie if naturally rise, fell very significantly earlier trading by IEA projections. Data from Westpac this morning gives a negative sentiment against aussie, where consumer sentiment towards the Australian economy experienced a decline of optimistic and pessimistic approach. Australian dollar exchange rate movements early Asian session (01:35:45 GMT) moved positively to the US dollar, after opening higher at 0.7467 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), the Australian dollar exchange rate rose by 4 pips or 0.1% and the value of the rolling is at 0.7471. For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, it estimated that AUDUSD continues to move down to the range between 0.7448 and 0.7407. But if there is a correction, the pair may rise towards the range between 0.7493-0.7526. -
USDJPY pair movement in the Asian session (05:15:35 GMT / 12:15 GMT) strong move after opening higher at 102.57 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 102.97. This pair have managed to penetrate strong resistance range. Yen selling pressure unspoiled sizable by Japanese sentiment expectations of monetary policy next week that would cut interest rates again into the negative range. Encouragement safe haven not able to increase the value of the yen is down to lows of 7 days. Technically, USDJPY continued to rise to around 103.25-103.60, but if there is a correction then this pair's price will come down to the range between 102.35-101.72. So normal range on the USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 100.40 and the resistance level at 104.28.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Wednesday morning (14/09) ended down. The decline in arabica coffee prices triggered an increase in exports of Brazilian coffee. Arabica coffee futures extended losses ahead of Brazilian coffee export data that showed 37% increase month-over-month in August to 2.7 million 132-pound bags. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.4840 dollars, down by -2.50 cents or equal to -1.66 percent. Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will have a potential to have weakening against US dollar after dovish signal waning US interest rates. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test support at 1.4500 dollars. While the resistance at 1.5100 dollars and 1.5400 dollars.