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CPO futures price in Malaysia Commodity Exchange observed rose on Tuesday afternoon (09/20). CPO price hike this afternoon supported the weakening ringgit and the increase in soybean. It is observed that ringgit is weakening against US dollar. USDMYR exchange rate rose around 0.16 percent at 4.1445. The weakening ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so that demand is increasing. The sharp rise in CPO prices also supported the increase in US soybean on Monday for third consecutive session, driven by strength in the vegetable oil market and buying. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to have increased. The contract price in December 2016 which is the most active contract rose as much as 81 ringgit, or 3.1 percent and traded at 2,723 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures at the next trade potentially strengthened by potential weakening ringgit and the increase in US soybean. CPO futures may test the resistance level at 2,770 ringgit positions and support level at 2,670 ringgit and 2,620 ringgit.
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At the end of trading Tuesday morning (20/09), Rotterdam coal price rise pushed US crude oil price increases. Crude oil prices rose in late trading Tuesday morning (9/20) after Venezuela signaled that OPEC and other major oil producers could agree to support an agreement freezing the production and clashes in Libya is undermining efforts to boost crude exports. US crude futures rose 0.7 percent, at $ 43.31 per barrel while Brent crude futures rose 32 cents cents to $ 46.09 a barrel at 01:36 ET.At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for December 2016 at 62.85 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened by 0.60 dollars compared to the previous closing. Analyst estimates that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially weak following the weakening of crude oil glut that depressed global worries. Coal futures may test support level at 62.35 dollars and the resistance level which will be be test is at 63.35 dollars and 63.85 dollars.
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The price of tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Tuesday afternoon (09/20). The increase in the price of tin supported the weakening US dollar.Tin's price is keep increasing because of the demand where the price of tin is sold in US dollars become cheaper. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19,400 dollars per ton, an increase of 200 dollars or 1.0 percent from its previous close at 19,200. Tin future's price movement in trading has the potential to strengthen further limited by the potential weakening of US dollar by fading expectations of US rate hike. Price will face the resistance level at 19,600 dollars and 19,800 dollars. But if there is a decrease, the price of tin will face a support level at 19,200 dollars and 19,000 dollars.
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Gold price movements at the end of Asia session (02:10:35 GMT / 09:10 GMT) move stronger than what expected and opened lower at 1313.05 in early trading (0000 GMT), now XAUUSD's rolling value at 1315.85. Gold prices tried to reach strong resistance. Gold prices had opened slightly lower than the closing overnight but powerful moves back by market expectations that Fed policy will not change back this weekend so weakened US dollar is the option. But if US economic data this evening to give a strong force then gold prices could fall back. Technically XAUUSD moving down to the range of 1311.58-1307.25. But when it comes to the range of resistant strength of the gold price continued up to the next resistance. So the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1300.65 and resistance level at 1326.50.
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Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday (09/20) in the Asian session after Venezuela said that global crude supplies fell 10 percent need to be able to bring the production to the level of consumption. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 26 cents to $ 43.04 per barrel while Brent traded at $ 45.77 a barrel, down 18 or 0.39 percent. This statement confirmed the view of analysts that the market remains very oversupply. Global oil supply of 94 million barrels per day needs to go down about a tenth if it is to match consumption, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino, said on Monday. "Global production is at 94 million barrels per day, of which we need to get down 9 million barrels per day to maintain the level of consumption," Del Pino said in an interview with the TV station's internal state oil company PDVSA. Del Pino also the President of PDVSA. The report comes on the same day as credit rating agency Standard & Poor's said that the bond swap proposed by PDVSA is a "distressed exchange" that would be "tantamount to default" if completed, be a blow to the company's business that lack of money is to look for the source finance. Analyst estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade with a potentially weaker global glut worries. Prices are expected to penetrate the support range between 42.50 - $ 42.00, and if the price rises will penetrate resistance range between $ 43.50 - $ 44.00.
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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (20/09) closed strengthening its position. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered by the weakening US dollar where The US dollar index fell 0.20 percent after expectations that the Bank of Japan action this week will not weaken the yen and the Federal Reserve will hold US interest rate hikes. A weakening US dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa becomes cheaper in other currencies.ee: At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. Commodity prices closed significantly increased by 69 dollars, towards 2,872 dollars per ton. Analyst estimates that the price of cocoa futures to trade higher with the potential to further dollar weakness. For the next trading price of cocoa futures has the potential to penetrate resistance at 2,920 dollar . If the resistance level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,970 dollars. While the level of support that will penetrate if there is a decline is at 2820 dollars.
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British pound exchange rate movements on European trading session earlier in the week has a very strong move by bargain hunting market is responding to the lack of strong fundamentals and drive business profit taking was done for the bearer of the US dollar. Earlier trade slumped badly enough pounds to 2 percent by the rise of the very strong expectations of Fed rate hike at the FOMC meeting week. Strengthening this afternoon is driven also by sentiment BOE policy easing and the English parliamentary attitude reconsider to leave the EU. Pound exchange rate movements in the European session (08:45:35 GMT) strengthened against US dollar, after opening lower than the previous trading at 1.3000 in early Asia trade (0000 GMT) and also it observed that the exchange rate of Great Britain Pound rose 47 pips and this pair rolling value is moving at 1.3047 , For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, analyst Vibiz Research Center estimates pair GBPUSD continued up to the range between 1.3120 - 1.3180. But if it does not reach this range and a correction will fall back towards the range between 1.2985-1.2934.
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Euro in forex trading European session on Monday (19/9) is still able to move strong despite negative sentiment of EURUSD which tried to overshadow rate since the beginning of Asian session today. Previous trading euro at the end of last week strong pressure from US inflation data that increased from the previous period. The negative sentiment this afternoon comes from the data the euro area current account surplus decreased from 29,5B be 21,0B in July. Power euro this afternoon still be obtained from the momentum of the global market to take profit from the strengthening of the dollar is high enough last weekend. On European session the exchange rate movements is strengthening against US dollar, after opened higher at 1.1155 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, it seems that EURUSD will be able to rise up to around 1.1176 - 1.1205. But if there is a correction, the pair's price of this currencies in the next trading may fall towards 1.1149-1.1107 range.
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At the end of trading early on Saturday (17/09), Rotterdam coal prices ended down depressed crude oil prices declining and Crude oil prices fell 2 percent in late morning trading Friday weekend due to swelling of Iran's exports strengthens global glut concerns, while gasoline rallied on refinery and pipeline outages. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in October 2016 dropped in position 63.75 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by -0.05 dollars, equivalent to -0.08 percent compared to the previous closing. On a weekly basis, coal prices still jumped 4 percent, largely helped by rising crude oil prices. It is estimated that the movements of Coal's future price on Rotterdam at the next trade would potentially weak if US dollar continues to strengthen after US inflation data rose. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 63.25 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 64.25 dollars.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading early on Saturday (17/09) ends negatively. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed the strengthening of US dollar. The US dollar index rose 0.8 percent against a basket of major currencies sete; ah US inflation rose in August. Although the increase is relatively narrow, but it will give an additional impetus for the rise in US interest rates higher than the FOMC members. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed retreat to 1.4840 dollars, down by -0.50 cents or equal to -0.34 percent. A weekly basis ICE arabica coffee prices slumped -1.82 percent, largely triggered an increase in exports and a recovery in Brazil weather. Coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar after US rising inflation in August. The price of Arabica coffee futures has potential to test support level at 1.4500 dollars and 1.4200 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if the price rose is between 1.5100 dollars and 1.5400 dollars.
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Crude oil prices rose in Asian trade on Monday (09/19), after the statement that the OPEC nation Venezuela and non-OPEC production almost reached an agreement to stabilize and sentiment clashes in Libya raised concerns that efforts to restart crude exports could be disrupted. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate rose 63 cents, or 1.5 percent, at $ 43.66 per barrel. Whilerent crude futures traded at $ 46.39 a barrel at 0046 GMT (8:46 am EDT), up 62 cents, or 1.4 percent, from their last settlement. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said on Sunday that an agreement between the countries of OPEC and non-OPEC could be announced this month. Iran's crude oil exports in August jumped 15 percent from July to more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a source familiar with the tanker loading schedule, approaching the level of pre-sanction Tehran delivery of five years ago. Concerns over supply growth remains a scourge on the sentiment for US crude oil production continues to increase. US drillers add oil refinery for 11 weeks in the past 12, in the week to 16 September Drillers added two oil refineries in the week until 16th September, bringing the total calculation refinery to 416, the most since February. US gasoline futures opened 0.3 percent higher at $ 1.4659 per US gallon after rising 2 percent on Friday as major outages Colonial Pipeline gas operations and in the main unit of BP Plc refinery in Whiting, Indiana. it estimated that the price of crude oil at the next trade is projected to rise to optimism and concern production freezing Libyan oil production. Prices are expected to penetrate the range between resistance at $ 44.20 - $ 44.70, and if the price drops will penetrate the range between support at $ 43.20 - $ 42.70.
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After weeks of speculation back and forth, which led to increased volatility, the Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy decisions are highly anticipated by many people who could end up with an impact that is positive for gold prices. Following the closing of the positive over the last two weeks respectively - helped the gold market ended the market in the last week in negative territory with traders continuing to clean up their positions ahead of a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee next week, which will also update its economic forecasts and held a press conference with Governor Fed Janet Yellen. The decline in gold prices was also caused by a bag of US economic data releases interplanted contents that make the market become more uncertain whether the Fed will raise interest rates or not. Comex December gold futures closed on Friday last week at 1,310.20, - per ounce, down as much as $ 7.80, or 1.6% over the last week and was trading near the key psychological support at $ 1.300 per ounce. Comex December silver futures closed down two times in a row in negative territory at $ 18,862 per ounce, down 1.8% over the week. The results of a survey of professionals in the Kitco reflect the significant uncertainty in the market with most analysts are not sure about the price movements of gold in the short term. This week, from 13 analysts and traders who took part in the survey, 38% predict gold prices will move higher. The rest of the participants were split in two with each as much as 31% looking at the gold price will move down, or "sideways". Main Street looks a little more optimistic about the gold price movements this week. Of the 1,251 who took part, a total of 591 or 48% said gold would be "bullish" on the week, while 530 or 42% of the view "bearish" and 130 participants or 10% chose neutral. KC Chang commodities analyst at HIS Global Insights says, "I think we could see the price of gold fell below $ 1.300 ahead of the Fed meeting with most investors have been entered in the price will rise in the interest rate, but I think we can also see a boost rise higher again after the Fed meeting passed. There is not enough data on inflation and the labor market to justify the increase in the interest rate on this week. ".
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Yen exchange rate movements begin forex trading early European session moves mixed week with gains going to trade against Euro and US dollar. The yen strengthened gets sentiment of waiting BOJ monetary policy provisions latest market expected this week will loosen its policy. Strengthening against the US dollar also happen because the main rival was a natural profit taking by prudence market will focus on global markets this week are two results of regular meetings of the world's major central banks, namely the Bank of Japan and the United States. Yen exchange rate movements of the European session (07:45:35 GMT) rose slightly against US dollar, USDJPY opened lower at 102.21 in early trading (0000 GMT), down 16 pips and value pair rolling at 102.05. For the next movement of this pair until the end of the evening session trading is potentially weak , so the USDJPY may dropped to the range between 101.70 to 101.37. But if there is a correction, the pair may rise towards to higher level and at most at 102.53.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
US Dollar in Asian trade earlier in the week (17/9) moves retreat by profit taking back of the market which was because cautious ahead of the announcement of US Federal Rerserve for monetary policy is expected to announce a policy that lifted US dollar higher. Last week the dollar managed to print weekly gains that ended with high reinforcement respond inflation data for the United States in August increased from the previous period even from expectations. The increase in these data provide additional strength to the expectations of Fed rate hikes in the near future. Today the forex market movements lack strong fundamental driving force for all the key global currency, economic data were released in the evening session only the data from the property sector is expected to show the same data at the NAHB Housing Market Index. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies moving trading weak after the start of trading the Asian session opened higher at 96.04 and is now moving position at around 95.88. On previous trading, US dollar closed up 0.8 percent. And for the next trade is expected to be strong again after European markets opened. -
The price of CPO in Malaysia observed commodity exchanges rose on Monday afternoon (09/19). CPO price hike this afternoon supported crude oil prices for the Asian session. Crude oil prices rose in Asian trade on Monday (09/19), after the statement that the OPEC nation Venezuela and non-OPEC production almost reached an agreement to stabilize and sentiment clashes in Libya raised concerns that efforts to restart crude exports could be disrupted. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to have increased. The contract price in December 2016 which is the most active contract rose as much as 33 ringgit, or 1.3 percent and traded at 2,598 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures price estimated to trade potentially strengthened by the potential increase in crude oil. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in December 2016 Malaysia has the potential to test the resistance level at 2,650, while support level that will be tested if fell will be at 2,550 ringgit .
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The movement of Aussie in early European trading session earlier in the week (19/9) after a strong rally early happened on Asia session where the price rebound from pressure of USD last week. The power which this currency able to attain the highest position in 5 days is because of thks afternoon sentiment derived from the last minutes of the RBA meeting and the price of housing in Australia, where both of these data will be published tomorrow. The market wants to make sure the return policy of the RBA last week did not change its monetary policy even though the inflation rate is still far below the target. RBA and the government agreed to a target inflation of around 2-3 per cent, making it easier for the RBA to change monetary policy. Australian dollar exchange rate movements early European session (08:10:45 GMT) moves exhibited significantly stronger against US dollar, after in the opening higher at 0.7480 in early Asia trade (0000 GMT) Australian dollar exchange rate rose 66 pips and roll values ​​are at 0.7546. Pair already surpassed the strong resistance range. For subsequent trade to American trading session this evening, it estimated that AUDUSD pair may continue to rise to the range of 0.7552-0.7587. But if there is a correction and fell back to around 0.7517 then the pair will go down to 0.7460. -
Cocoa futures on ICE Futures trading late weekend early Saturday (17/09) closed slump. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered the strengthening US dollar. Although the increase is relatively narrow, but it will give an additional impetus for the rise in US interest rates higher than the FOMC members. A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases and at the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract was observed to be closed down. Commodity prices closed down by -29 dollars, or -1.02 percent at 2,803 dollars per ton.But on a weekly basis, the price of cocoa was up 1.48 percent, largely supported the weakening of US dollar. It seems that the price of cocoa futures for the next trade will move in trends is limited by the potential weakening of US dollar strengthening after strong US inflation data. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures has the potential to penetrate support at 2,750 dollar . If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,700 dollars. While the level of resistance that will penetrate if there was a strengthening there at 2,850 dollars.
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The price of tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange stabilized in early trading Monday last week (19/9). Stable prices with investors awaited the US Federal Reserve policy meeting Sept. 20-21 is related to US interest rate policy. US inflation rose 0.2% for August compared with the expected rise of 0.1% with an annual increase of 1.1% from 0.8% previously. This is the highest inflation rate in four months, driven by rising costs and medical protection. Although the increase is relatively narrow, but it will give an additional impetus for the rise in US interest rates higher than the FOMC members. With strong US inflation is still triggered the development of sentiment US interest rate hikes, whether to raise interest rates at tomorrow's meeting or going up at a meeting late next year. The price of tin in Malaysia observed stable commodity exchanges today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19,200 dollars per ton, the same as the previous closing on weekends at 19.200. In the last week the price of tin is also stable at 19,200 dollars per ton, mostly observing the development of US interest rates, while the Chinese market holidays that reduce demand. Analyst estimates that Tin at the next trade has potential to weaken with the potential for strengthening of US Dollar. Price will face the of support level at 19,000 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 19,400 dollars and 19,600 dollars.
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At the end of trading Friday morning (16/09), Rotterdam coal price rise pushed US crude oil price increases.Crude oil prices rose in late trading Friday morning, ending a two-day decline helped spike in gasoline prices and rising futures on Wall Street. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for November 2016 at 63.00 dollars per tonne. Commodity prices strengthened by 0.70 dollars or equivalent to 1.12 percent compared to the previous closing. It estimated that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially weak following the weakening of crude oil glut that depressed global worries. Coal futures' price could potentially test support at 62.50 dollars and 62.00 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 63.50 dollars and 64.00 dollars.
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Crude oil prices fell on Asian trade Friday session amid concerns that the number of oil refineries will continue to rise and the return of Libyan and Nigerian exports will further increase the global supply glut. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate fell 34 cents, or 0.77 percent, at $ 43.57 per barrel while the price of Brent crude futures traded at $ 46.26 a barrel, down 33 cents, or 0.71 percent. Baker Hughes reported the number of US refineries for weeks to 16th September on Friday. WTI prices held above $ 40 a barrel since early August has been supporting growth in the number of US refineries. While the resumption of supplies from Libya and Nigeria will hinder rebalancing global crude oil market, weighed on sentiment, traders said. Libya resume oil exports of some major port seized by force by parties loyal to the commander Khalifa Haftar east in recent days and have been raised related to "force majeure" clause of the contract, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said Thursday. Analyst estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade may decline to concerns with global supply glut. But tonight should be observed that the US economic data Inflation in August and September indicated Consumer Sentiment rose, which if realized, will strengthen US dollar and weighed on oil prices. Prices are expected to penetrate support range at $ 43.10 - $ 42.60, and if the price rises will penetrate resistance range at $ 44.10 - $ 44.60.
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Until the middle of September, the price of tin is still in a positive position, while Malaysia stock trading this Friday to commemorate Malaysia Day holiday. In early September the price of tin is at 18,900 dollars. The highest price on September 9 at 19,600. On 14 September last closing at 19,150. Therefore, until the middle of September is the price of tin is still up to 250 dollars, or 1.3 percent. With the fading hopes of US interest rate hikes, it could be a bearish sentiment for the movement of the US dollar. However, it should be observed economic data releases tonight, which will be released the data Inflation Consumer Sentiment August and September which indicated stronger. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Analyst estimated that Malaysian tin price movements at the next trade will weaken limited to the potential strengthening of US dollar if US economic data strengthened. Price will face support level at 18 950 dollars and 18,750 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 19,350 dollars and 19 550 dollars.
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Euro exchange rate at European session on Friday (14/9) back naturally and weakened against US dollar also against many other rivals such as the Pound Sterling, Yen, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. Fundamental of euro looks very vulnerable than other fundamental rivals that seen in some economic data releases there. US Dollar is trading previously received negative sentiment of economic data releases that weaken the Fed rate hike expectations, strong back against many rivals to respond to two economic data expected to provide a positive dollar sentiment. The inflation data and UoM consumer sentiment survey will be released tonight put pressure on euro. Previous trading the euro weakened by the economic data that disappointed as euro zone inflation data that has remained unchanged in August and the trade surplus declined unexpectedly in July, due to decreased exports fell. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, analyst estimates that EURUSD could fall into the range 1.1225- 1.1195. But if there is a correction, the pair can rise to the range between 1.1252-1.1307.
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Sterling exchange rate movements on European trading session (16/9) are moving very weak by the market profit-taking after two consecutive days show the strength of US dollar opponent. The weak exchange rate of the pound since Asia session triggered by a strong US dollar welcomed the release of positive economic data in the middle of a fundamental which lack of strong movers. Previous trading pound had gained sustained by the Bank of England on Thursday that did not change its key interest rate at a record low of 0.25% position in line with expectations. Pound exchange rate movements after opening lower than the previous trading at 1.3237 and rose by 3 pips and rolling value is at 1.3166. For the next trade until the close of trading ending American session tomorrow morning, The estimation of this pair will further fall down to the range between 1.3150 - 1.3070. But if it does not reach this range and corrected will climb back towards the range between 1.3262-1.3310 as the resistance area.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
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In the middle of the European session forex trading Wednesday (31/8) still showed a positive movement since the Asian session ended. Previous aussie is already weakened by the strengthening US dollar sentiment after the rise of a strong signal the Fed rate hike last weekend despite the economic data released seeks to provide positive sentiment. However, positive correction that occurred in the European session is in support by market's caution on US NFP Data to be released on Friday, where this data may support the Fed rate hike signals or even dropping back. And data from ADP tonight a little give concern to the data, because the data lower expectations of economists. Aussie exchange rate movements in the European session (10:40:35 GMT) moving weak against the US dollar, after opening lower at 0.75082 early in the Asian trading session. For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, it seems that AUDUSD may fall back into the range between 0.74900-0.74630. But if it is not until these ranges will rise back to around 0.75372. -
ICE Futures price of cocoa futures in late trade on Friday morning (16/09) closed up. Strengthening the cocoa price boosted by hopes cocoa price adjustment. Ivory Coast cocoa marketing board said it would adjust the scale of the price for the 2016/17 season to offset transportation costs. Meanwhile BMI Research commodities analyst Andrey Alexandre said in a statement that the group is neutral on the price of cocoa, estimating them to trade around the price level at the end of 2016. At the end of trading early this morning Cocoa's futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. Cocoa closed up $ 23 dollars or 0.82 percent at 2,832 dollars per ton. Tonight will be released the data Inflation Consumer Sentiment August and September which indicated stronger. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. It estimated that Cocoa futures' rice will weaken with USD potential to strengthening itself. For the next trading Cocoa's future price has the potential to penetrate support at 2,780 dollar, while the level of resistance will be penetrated if the increase is at 2880 dollars and 2930 dollars.