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myregister
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements in Asia session (01:30:35 GMT) is moving strongly against US dollar, after opened higher at 0.7620 in early trading (0000 GMT), and is now rolling value at 0.7628 . Technically, the pair also touched a range of strong resistance. Aussie on Asian session tried to continue the rally three days earlier by the momentum of weakening US dollar after the announcement about Fed interest rate policy. Workers rally was also obtained from the RBA governor's statement that conveys still need to cut interest rates. But the movement today to watch out for profit taking. Fundamentally AUDUSD is expected to rise again to the range of 0.7655-0.7690, but if it does not reach these ranges it can be a correction down to the range of 0.7597 - 0.7527. So normal AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7474 and the resistance level at 0.7785. -
USDJPY pair movement in Asia ession (02:00:35 GMT) experiencing the strong move after opened lower at 100.30 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair's price rolling value is at 100.35 with bullish tendency. Yen rallied about third consecutive day trading and halted when entered Asia session where USDPY technically rebound, but the European session will fall back if US dollar pressured again by negative sentiment from both fundamental of European region or data US unemployment claims. Looks like USDJPY is expected to fall further to around 100.01-99.50 if the rate does not reach the pair strong resistance. So the normal range on the USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 98.04 and the resistance level at 102.90.
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Crude oil prices rose about 3 percent in late trading Thursday morning compelled surprise drop in crude oil inventories were reported to the US government and the Fed's decision to keep interest rates. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $ 1.28, or 2.91 percent, to $ 45.33 per barrel while Brent crude futures rose 99 cents, or 2.16 percent at $ 46.87 a barrel at 14:40 ET. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said domestic crude inventories fell 6.2 million barrels for the week ended 16 September versus a decline of 3.4 million barrels of oil estimated by market analysts polled by Reuters. Crude inventories in the world's largest oil consumer has fallen since the start of this month. Approximately 14.5 million barrels reported to be drawn for the week ending Sept. 2 . Some market participants are confused by the current draw of US crude imports overall rose and refinery runs fell. US crude oil imports rose last week by 77,000 barrels per day, but fell sharply in the US Gulf, fell about 500,000 barrels per day to 2.9 million barrels per day. The key to the market is meeting next week in Algeria between the producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to discuss measures to rein in excess supply, including freezing production at current levels, but analysts said they did not expect significant results. Analyst estimated that the price of crude oil at the next trade may rise after the Fed's decision to keep interest rates and a decline in US inventories. Prices are expected to penetrate the resistance range of $ 45.80 - $ 46.30, and if the price drops will penetrate support range $ 44.80 - $ 44.30.
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Cocoa futures at the end of trading on Thursday morning (22/09) closed with the price rise to higher level. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered by dollar weakness after the Fed's decision to keep interest rates the US and concerns the production of Ghana. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday's meeting this morning (22/09) but give a strong signal to the tightening of monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor market improves further. The increase in cocoa prices also triggered fears of a decrease in crop production in Ghana. Rainfall is not evenly distributed in West Africa threatens cocoa production in Ghana because conditions remain too dry in the second largest producer in the world, according to hedge fund Armajaro Asset Management LLP. West and northwest region of Ivory Coast received good rainfall while the eastern and western part of Ghana had very poor rains. Harmattan wind worst in three decades to slash production in West Africa in the season ending Sept. 30 as the Sahara desert winds dry the cocoa plant. Ghana cocoa production would miss its target for the third year in 2015-16 as a lack of rainfall mean that farmers will harvest 790,000 metric tons, 7.1 percent less than the government forecast. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 0.38 percent at 2,877 dollars per ton. Cocoa futures to trade higher with the potential to further dollar weakness. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2,930 dollar. If the resistance level is successfully penetrated then next level is 2,980 dollars. While the level of support that will penetrate if there is a decline is at 2830 dollars and 2780 dollars.
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Pound exchange rate movements in Asian session (02:45:35 GMT) moving strongly against US dollar, after opening higher at 1.3028 in early trading (0000 GMT), and is now rolling GBPUSD is at 1.3038. Pound tried to continue its rally on Asia session against US dollar after the market attractiveness of their safe-haven assets and buy pounds. Permanent Fed's latest interest rate policy is stressful and potentially lif the price of great britain pound. Today the movement of pound minimal with strong fundamentals driving. Fundamentally GBPUSD is expected to rise continuously to the range of 1.3050-1.3126, but if failed to that range, it can be a corrected down towards 1.3017-1.2938 range. So GBPUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1.2806 and the resistance level at 1.3206.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Finalized the third day this week after completing America/New York session (21/9), US dollar is predicted to drop by the Fed's interest rate policy into reality. The dollar fell sharply against all its main rivals after Janet Yellen to convey the results of the FOMC meeting for 2 days. Janet Yellen very disappointing statement about US dollar, the article shows the results of the meeting left interest rates unchanged as expected. And besides Fed also cut its forecast for economic growth and rising interest rates in the following years. The above policy increasingly grim fundamentals of the global primary exchange. The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies move they move trading weak after the start of trading on Asia session opened lower at 96.02 and is now the position of this pair is at 96.00. Throughout the day had reached its highest range. -
Arabica coffee futures price on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (22/09) ended down. The decline in arabica coffee prices was triggered by an increase in production. Arabica coffee declined after news Conab, with the agency revised up its estimate for production of 41.29 million bags of arabica be a projection of 40.3 million in May, after better weather in the main growing areas and the increase in area planted varieties contributes to the larger plants. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.5655 dollars, down by -0.25 cents or equal to -0.16 percent. Arabica coffee futures is projected to rise to a potential dollar weakness after the Fed's decision to keep interest rates the US. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.6000 dollar and next to around 1.6300 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.5400 dollars and 1.5100 dollars.
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The focus of global market awaits the central bank's monetary policy announcement tomorrow morning to make United States market players secured assets to safe haven assets even though many expect US Federal Reserve did not change its monetary policy. If Fed to raise interest rates will make the global economy that has not recovered 100% more worrying. But approaching American market opened weaker against euro made since the previous trading gradually trimmed and prepared to gain back power to rebound. If Fed does not change the current monetary policy which will be announced later, the exchange rate of the euro will be strong again. Today's trading movements in the euro does not have the support of the region's economic data releases. Euro all day just driven by Fed policy sentiment. And for your information, the current Asian session the euro had plunged to its lowest in 14 days against the dollar. European session the euro exchange rate movements (09:30:35 GMT) is weakening against US dollar, after opening lower than the previous trading at 1.1150 in early Asia trade (0000 GMT), the natural attenuation rate Euro is 5 pips and now rolling at 1.1145. For the next trade until the close of trading ending on American session tomorrow morning, analyst estimates EURUSD pair tried to go up to the range 1.1163 - 1.1201. But if it is not until these ranges, the pair will go down towards the bottom of around level 1.1120.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
US dollar strength on the opening of American session is increased after the BOJ's decision weakens yen, trimmed slowly by several of its main rivals such as commodity exchange and swissfranc. Strengthening by these rivals then make USD get power from the strong fundamentals driving these currencies ahead of Fed policy announcement a few hours. Commodities currency such as aussie(AUD), kiwi dollar(NZD) and the loonie (Canadian dollar) gets additional power to strong crude oil price movements were successful rally. But the most powerful pressure against US dollar comes from the expectation that the Fed stance will not change interest rate policy tonight. And if it really happened dollar will certainly drop severely. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading stronger move still moving after the start of trading on Asia session opened lower at 95.97 and is now moving position at 96.00. In Asia session US dollar had touched a position at 96.32, the highest level since August 9. -
Pound exchange rate movements on Asia session (03:00:35 GMT / 10.00 am) is negative move against the US dollar after opened higher at 1.2990 in early trading (0000 GMT), the exchange rate pound fell around 23 pips and rolling values of this pair are at 1.2977. Pound is still moving weak on Asian session before being pressed to continue trading against US dollar by prudence market sentiment ahead of the Fed's policy tonight. Choose a secure market position into safe-haven assets by global economic uncertainty after the policy. It seems fundamentally GBPUSD will go up to the range of 1.3013-1.3050 and if the pair did not retreat to the range of 1.2959-1.2905. If successfully penetrate the strong resistance continued up to 1.3100. So the normal range GBPUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1.2867 and the resistance level at 1.3156
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements in Asia session (01:50:35 GMT / 8:50 pm) was consolidating against the US dollar, after opening higher at 0.7557 in early trading (0000 GMT), the exchange rate rose 1 pips Aussie and rolling value is at 0 , 7558. Exchange rate of Australian dollar in the early Asian session moving to consolidation by the market's caution BOJ and Fed monetary policy. Strong force this morning obtained from the increase in crude oil prices lifted commodity prices featured Australia. It seems that AUDUSD will rise to the range of 0.7564-0.7581. If the price reaches the strong support it may fall below around 0.7500. So the normal range of AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7484 and the resistance level at 0.7610. -
Arabica coffee prices in late trading Wednesday morning (21/09), triggered the strengthening of the Brazilian currency, Real. At the close of trading yesterday the Brazilian Real currency strengthened against US dollar. USDBRL rate in the ending observed fall down -0.44 percent at 3.2565. The strengthening of the Brazilian Real is the bullish sentiment for commodity prices denominated in US dollar, making exports less attractive in the local currency. Brazil is the world's top producer of coffee. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning has strengthened. It rose by 4.00 dollars or equivalent to 2.62 percent and closed at 1.5680 dollars per pound. The cofee futures estimates that the price for the next trade is projected to rise to a potential weakening US dollar by fading expectations of US rate hike. Arabica coffee futures has the potential to test resistance level at 1.6000 dollar. While support which will be encountered is a 1.5400 dollars if weakening movement found.
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Yen exchange rate fell badly against all its main rivals including US dollar after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced a comprehensive monetary policy even though their interest rates unchanged in line with expectations of economists before. Some of these policies such as the deposit rate unchanged at a negative 0.1 percent, but the BOJ will target a 10-year interest rate and keep it in the range of 0 percent. In addition, the central bank kept the annual government bond purchases by 80 trillion yen per year with no maturity so that yields will hover around zero percent. Yen exchange rate movements on Asia session (05:10:35 GMT) weakened against US dollar, USDJPY actually opened lower at 101.69 in early trading (0000 GMT) and later gained 86 pips and this pair is rolling value is now at 102.55 after having earlier climbed to 102.79. For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session trading could weaken the Fed's policy, so the athis pair may fall further to the range of 100.95-100.79 if the strengthening of the pair did not reach the range of 102.85.
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Crude oil rose in trading Wednesday (21/09) at Asia session, triggered by a decline in US crude inventories and increase in Japanese imports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price rose 1.8 percent, or 81 cents, at $ 44.86 per barrel. The October contract expired yesterday at $ 43.44 per barrel and the next month has now been extended for November. Fueling the increase in WTI prices is data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a 7.5 million barrel drawdown be 507.2 million barrels in US crude inventories, as a third weekly inventory drawdown. Market participants forecast an increase of 3.4 million barrels, according to a Reuters poll. Official data storage is scheduled to be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, and traders said they are also eagerly anticipating the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC), which could affect US interest rates. Overall, the oil market remains oversupply as an exporter producing near record number of the world. Oil producers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia plan to meet in Algeria next week to discuss measures to rein in excess supply, but analysts said they do not expect significant cuts to production. Tonight will be released weekly crude oil inventories data by the EIA, which indicated an increase in inventories. But also will be released weekly gasoline inventories which indicated a significant decline. If inventories of gasoline fell would strengthen oil prices. It estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade may rise after a decline in crude oil inventories report by the API. Also if tonight realized the price will raise the price of crude oil. Prices are expected to penetrate the Resistance range between $ 45.40 - $ 45.90, and if the price drops will penetrate Support range between $ 44.40 - $ 43.90.
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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Wednesday morning (21/09) closed slump. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered an improving outlook for the cocoa plant. The weakening of the price of cocoa futures triggered an improving outlook for the main crop in Ivory Coast. Abundant rain and sun last week in most major regions Ivory Coast cocoa crop will increase the yield from October to March main crop cocoa, according to farmers, on Monday. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract was observed to be closed down. Commodity prices closed down by -6 dollar or -0.21 percent at 2,866 dollars per ton. Cocoa futures for the next trade will move in the trend of limited gain after the fading US rate hike. For the next trading price of cocoa futures has the potential to penetrate resistance at 2,920 dollar. If the resistance level is successfully penetrated is 2,970 dollars. While the support level will be faced if decline happened is at 2820 dollars and 2770 dollars.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia observed commodity exchanges rose on Wednesday afternoon (21/09). CPO price hike this afternoon supported by the weakening ringgit and rising crude oil prices on Asia session. Ringgit observed weaken against US dollar. USDMYR exchange rate rose 0.50 percent at 4.1578. The weakening ringgit makes the price of CPO has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so that demand is increasing. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to have increased. The contract price in December 2016 which is the most active contract gained as much as 15 ringgit, or 0.6 percent and traded at 2,708 ringgit per tonne. Analyst estimates that the price movement of CPO futures at the next trade potentially strengthening itself by the weakening of ringgit and the increase in crude oil. CPO futures price has the potential to test resistance at 2,750 ringgit. While the level of support that will be tested if prices decline is at 2,650 ringgit.
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At the end of trading Wednesday morning (21/09), Rotterdam coal price rise pushed US crude oil price increases.Crude oil prices rose in late trading on Wednesday morning, after the market responded OPEC comments that the deal freezing production might last longer than expected. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for October 2016 in the position of 64.55 dollars per ton. Commodity prices gained 0.05 dollars or equivalent to 0.08 percent compared to the previous closing. Coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade is projected to rise based on the potential of dollar weakness with an estimated US interest rates unchanged. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 65.00 dollars and next resistance level at 65.50 dollars. While the level of support that will be tested if prices decline is at 64.00 dollars and then fall towards 63.50 dollars.
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The price of tin on Malaysia Stock Exchange rose Tuesday afternoon (09/20). The increase in the price of tin after watch the Fed meeting that is expected to keep interest rates fixed. US interest rate decision will be announced tonight, where an estimated US interest rates will remain. Investors will watch Fed Chairman Janet Yellen's speech at the end of the meeting on Wednesday for clues to whether the central bank could raise interest rates before the end of the year. Various mixed economic data and comments to the contrary by key Fed policy has made investors expected an increase in US interest rates will be made at the next meeting. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19.480 dollars per ton, an increase of 80 dollars or 0.4 percent from its previous close at 19,400. It is estimated that Tin futures has the potential to strengthen further limited by the potential of dollar weakness due to fading expectations of US rate hike. First and second resistance at 19,700 dollars and 19,900 dollars. But if there is a decrease, the price of tin will face a support level at 19,300 dollars.
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Gold price movements in the end of Asia session (02:10:35 GMT / 09:10 GMT) move stronger than its counterpart after opened in the early trading at 1314.80 in early trading (0000 GMT), now XAUUSD rolling value is at 1315.15. Gold prices opened slightly higher from overnight closing by market doubts will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve's policy committee this evening which determines the Fed's interest rate decision. If the Fed change the interest rates on the price of gold will decline. XAUUSD fundamentally rise to the range of 1318.31-1322.17, but if there is a correction the price may fall down to the range between 1312.07-1305.81. So the normal range for XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1300.65 and resistance level at 1326.50.
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US dollar effort to rebound from trimming after its strongest position in 12 days last week on European trading session and pounds quickly respond to such pressures. So the pound is in a positive move since Asia session after retreat back towards the range of strong support. Market participants consider data from US' tonight property sector that can provide power for US dollar will be fundamental since decision of the Federal Reserve hawkish tomorrow in their regular meeting which is starting tonight. Previous trading pound rebounded from previous position and fell quite badly last weekend. Pound exchange rate movements in the European session (08:40:35 GMT) weakened against US dollar, after opening higher than the previous trading at 1.3031 in early Asia trade (0000 GMT), the exchange rate pound fell 18 pips and rolling value is at 1.3013. For the next trade until the close of American session tomorrow morning, GBPUSD may fall further down to the range between 1.2991 - 1.2970. But if it fails then i think the price will climb back towards 1.3072-1.3117 range.
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Euro in European forex trading session on Monday (20/9) made a strong mvoes in Asian session moving consolidation tends to be negative with a bit of profit taking from the market. The power of EUR this afternoon that managed to penetrate resistant is because of the strong sentiment derived from estimates of US property data poor this evening. And after European markets opened Destatis announced disappointing German PPI data in the period July. The data is the contraction of the previous period data is a natural strengthening of 0.2%, while the data is -0.1% below expectations for 0.1% rise. If US economic data released disappointing tonight, Euro continued to rally towards next resistance. On European session euro exchange rate movements (08:10:35 GMT) is strengthening against US dollar, after opening higher than the previous trading at 1.1176 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), a natural Euro exchange rate gains 15 pips and is now rolling at 1.1191. For the next trade until the close of American session tomorrow morning, EURUSD estimated be able to rise to the range between 1.1219 - 1.1238. But if there is a correction, the pair may fall towards 1.1165-1.1127 range as the lowest range of price they could achieved.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The movement of Aussie in the early European trading session on Tuesday (20/9) continue rally earlier trading after since Asian session was moving strongly opposed to US dollar. The power of Aussie to keep advanced to the highest position 9 days of trading this afternoon sentiment derived from the minutes of the RBA meeting. In a treatise published RBA this morning, after the decline in interest rates by the central bank a few months ago to make consumer spending did not increase. Because according to RBA, consumers take advantage of lower interest rates to pay their debts rather than spending. This sentiment gives a signal RBA will cut interest rates again in the near future. But the movement is strong second last day was overshadowed by the market waiting to be Japan's central bank monetary policy and the US central bank that showed the future global economic conditions further. Australian dollar exchange rate movements early European session (07:30:45 GMT) moves exhibited significantly stronger against the US dollar, after opening higher at 0.7532 in early Asian trade and for subsequent trade to American trading session this evening, AUDUSD pair may continue to rise to the range of 0.7576-0.7615. But if there is a correction and fell back to the starting position trading at 0.7494. -
United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
In the ending of forex trading on Asia session, the US dollar selling pressure on the market since the opening of trading this week are still moving in negative zone. But preparing for a rebound if the European session amplifier signal weakened. Dollar under pressure from uncertainty over the Fed to raise interest rates at a meeting for 2 days starting tonight. Dollar trading conditions earlier in the week so depressed by the above sentiment that the release of positive economic data was not able to lift the global primary rate. In early trading overnight US NAHB housing report developers confidence in the country rose to a higher score than the period of August. Today the movement of the US dollar will still be influenced by the country's property sector report the data as building permits and housing starts, both the data is expected to show mixed data. Dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies keep moving weakly after Asian session opened higher at 95.88 and is now moving at 95.86. Previous trading the US dollar fall down to 0.9 percent. -
Yen exchange rate movements begin European forex session on Tuesday (20/9) with a very strong moves against US dollar also against several of its main rivals such as EUR and GBP also continued the previous trading. Sentiment waiting provisions latest BOJ monetary policy at a meeting tomorrow morning in the Asian session are strong reasons for the yen. Strengthening against US dollar happen because the market expected BOJ's monetary policy announced tomorrow morning will not change. Last week many statements that arise both from BOJ and also from Japanese Government itself, which the statements shows the differences. Yen exchange rate movements of the European session (07:50:35 GMT) strengthened against US dollar, USDJPY opened lower at 101.92 in early trading (0000 GMT), down 28 pips and rolling price at the moment is at 101.64. Until the end of the evening session trading this pair could weaken again, so the USDJPY pair may dropped to 101.49 and then to 101.08. But if there is a correction, the pair may rise further to 102.13.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (9/20) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar where The US dollar index fell 0.20 percent after expectations that the Bank of Japan action this week will not weaken the yen and the Federal Reserve will hold US interest rate hikes. The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing, also Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5280 dollar around rose 4.40 cents, or equivalent to 2.96 percent. It seems that price movements of Arabica coffee futures is projected to rise to a potential weakening of US dollar after the waning of US interest rate hikes. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5600 dollar and support level at 1.5000 dollars.