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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
In the middle of the European session forex trading Thursday (29/9) US dollar opened lower than the previous closing position moving strongly against several of its main rivals. Post-deal in accomplish OPEC at its meeting in Algeria 26-28 September 2016, trading assets at risk of being pulled back after being depressed. In US session , US dollar tonight also will receive the power to rally from the second quarter GDP data release this year which showed an increase from the previous quarter and in accordance with the two previous projection. In addition to power the dollar suffered from profit taking after a jump in commodity exchange crude oil prices the previous trading. The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies trading move stronger and still moving after the start of trading on Asian session where it opened lower at 95.39 and is now moving to around 95.56. -
Tin futures price on Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Wednesday afternoon (28/09). The increase in the price of tin supported the strengthening of Wall Street. Stocks closed higher in late trading on Wednesday morning, after the first US presidential debates provide an edge over Donald Trump Hillary Clinton, also supported the strengthening of the US consumer confidence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 133.47 points, or 0.74 percent. The S & P 500 rose 13.83 points, or 0.64 percent. The Nasdaq index rose 48.22 points, or 0.92 percent, to close at 5,305.71. The price of tin on Malaysia Stock Exchange observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19,800 dollars per ton, an increase of 200 dollars or 1.0 percent from its previous close at 19,600. Tonight will be released August Durable Goods Orders data is indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. Analyst think this commodity has potential to strengthen further limited by the potential weakening of the US dollar. Price will face the resistance level at 20,000 dollars and 20,200 dollars. But if there is a decrease, the price of tin will face support level at 19,600 dollars and 19,400 dollars.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber price in midday trading Wednesday (28/09) finished up. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely March 2017 helped strengthen weaker yen and rising crude oil prices. Observed the Japanese Yen weakened and USDJPY currency pair traded higher by 0.13 percent at 100.56. A weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Tocom rubber price increases also supported the rise of crude oil in the Asian trading session. The increase in crude oil prices make synthetic rubber production cost becomes more expensive. The impact demand for commodities like natural rubber is traded on Tocom has increased significantly. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract, rose by 0.1 yen or 0.1 percent at 164.60 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing. Analyst estimates that Tocom rubber price movements on the next trading day may still appreciate the weakening yen. For the next trading session price is expected to meet the level of resistance at 170.00 yen. No further resistance at 175.00 yen. Meanwhile if lower prices will find support in the position of 160.00 yen and then next to around 155.00 yen. -
Pound exchange rate movements early European session (06:15:35 GMT / 13:15 GMT) moves negatively against US dollar after opened lower at 1.3022 in early trading (0000 GMT), the pound exchange rate fell 7 pips and rolling value of Pound is at 1.3015. Pound is still moving in Asian session is limited in movement negatively by market profit-taking after two straight days of rally. Sentiment strengthening of US dollar by major support to the US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Still the suppressor pound today is minimal driving strong fundamentals. But the evening session the dollar is expected to receive a negative sentiment on durable goods orders. Technically GBPUSD can rise to the range of 1.3036-1.3080, however if the correction pair this afternoon to the range of support strong then the pair will fall back towards the 1.2918-1.2882 range. So the normal range pair GBPUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1.2882 and the resistance level at 1.3123
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CPO futures price in Malaysia commodity exchanges Wednesday (27/09) was observed to fall. A weaker CPO prices this afternoon triggered by negative sentiment related to the management of the European CPO plant in Malaysia. Allegations have been made, that the government of Malaysia tropical deforestation and destroy wildlife. But the CEO of the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) Dr Yusof Basiron, denied the allegations. Concerns have also come from the government and German industry on the environmental impact of oil palm cultivation in Malaysia. German Chancellor Angela Merkel had previously raised the issue on the sustainability of oil palm plantations in Malaysia. In response, Prime Minister of Malaysia Datuk Seri Najib Razak's visit to Germany to assuage such concerns. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems weakening which is the contract in December 2016 and also one of the most active contract fell by 18 ringgit or 0.7 percent and traded at 2,645 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures at the next trade will be weakened by negative sentiment from Europe. But also watching the movement of crude oil prices, which if continued to strengthen will raise the price of CPO and vice versa. Ringgit currency was also observed to weaken this afternoon, which if it continues to weaken will raise the price of CPO. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in December 2016 Malaysia has the potential to test the support level at 2,600 ringgit and 2,550 ringgit. While the level of resistance to be tested if there was a CPO's strengthening is located at 2,700 ringgit and then to 2,750 ringgit.
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Euro exchange rate movements in the end of Asian session (05:45:35 GMT / 13:45 GMT) weakened against US dollar after the price of this pair opened higher at 1.1214 in early trading (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate is now rolling value is at 1.1204. Euro is still moving in weak sentiment continued earlier trading by the strengthening US dollar after the strong support for Hillary Clinton after the debate candidate for President of United States. Trading today minimal with strong fundamentals driving so difficult to get out of the pressure the US dollar. Technically, EURUSD will continue to move down towards the 1.1199-1.1155 range, but if there is a positive correction then this pair may rise up to the strongest resistance. And if it breaks the support strong, price will pressed down to around 1.1170. And today is expected to have the support level at 1.1128 and the resistance level at 1.1312.
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JPY pair movement on Asia session (04:00:35 GMT) is moving strongly against the rivals which is USD after opened exactly lower at 100.32 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 100.85. It observed that Yen in late Asian session against US dollar weakened by the strengthening US dollar momentum after more support to Hillary Clinton than its rivals. But in European and American sessions can be slid back if the release of US economic data this evening to press Yen. Technically, USDJPY will go down towards the range of 100.18-99.70. So it could argued that the normal range of USDJPY fundamentally based on this analysis is estimated to have the support level at 99.27 and the resistance level at 101.70.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements on Asia session (04:00:35 GMT) is moving strongly against US dollar, after opened higher at 0.7667 in early trading (0000 GMT), the exchange rate dropped by 2 pips and observed the rolling value is at 0,7676. Exchange rate of the Australian dollar on early Asian session is moving strongly after a weak move the start of trading and continued rally earlier trading. Previous AUDUSD weakened due to a decline in crude oil prices, and now keep rising despite the current price of crude oil still in a weak position. Technically AUDUSD will continue to rise into the range of 0.7686-0.7733, but if there is a correction, the pair will decline to around the strong support. But if passed strong support then the pair will be corrected downward towards 0.7580. So it could argued that the normal range of AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7535 and the resistance level at 0.7775. -
Crude oil prices rose in Asia session trade on Wednesday, helped by a decline in US crude inventories, though concerns over the lack of agreement among manufacturers to curb production continues to reduce profits. Oil prices received support from data from industry group American Petroleum Institute showed crude inventories fell 752,000 barrels 23 September and become 506.4 million barrels, versus expectations for a 2.8 million barrel rise. Crude oil futures fell about 3 percent on Tuesday after Iran rejected an offer from Saudi Arabia to restrict oil production in exchange for Riyadh cut supplies. The market expects both major OPEC producers will find a compromise this week to help lower global glut of crude oil. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold informal talks at 1400 GMT on Wednesday. Its members will also meet non-OPEC producers on the sidelines of the three-day International Energy Forum, which was held in Algeria and which ended on Wednesday. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 27 cents to $ 44.94 a barrel at 0026 GMT and ending down around 2.7 percent, in the previous session. Brent crude rose 32 cents to $ 46.29 a barrel after settling down $ 1.38, or 2.9 percent. Tonight will be released weekly crude oil inventories data by the EIA which indicated a sharp rise compared to the withdrawal of the previous week. Analyst estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade has potency to be weak if no agreement is reached at the meeting of oil-producing Algeria. Also will be more depressed if EIA data realized an increase in inventories. Prices are expected to penetrate the support range between $ 44.50 - $ 44.00, and if the price rises will penetrate resistance range between $45.50 - $ 46.00.
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At the end of trading Wednesday morning (28/09), Rotterdam ended weaker coal prices depressed crude oil prices tumbled.Oil prices slumped 3 percent in late morning trading after Saudi Arabia said do not expect to agree on production cuts at a meeting with other producers in the Algerian capital, while Iran is also not willing to freeze the current production. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters in Algiers, in which OPEC and other oil producers have gathered for the International Energy Forum September 26 to 28, that Iran, Libya and Nigeria should be allowed to produce at the maximum level throughout their history. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in December 2016 sank in position 64.95 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by -0.05 dollars, equivalent to -0.08 percent compared to the previous closing. Coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade is projected to rise by US dollar weakness also The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 65.50 dollars and if declined will test the support level for today at 64.00 dollars.
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Gold price movements on Asia session (03:45:35 GMT / 1040 BST) is sluggish after the this commodity's price opened lower at 1326.75 in early trading (0000 GMT), now XAUUSD rolling value is located at 1325.30. Gold prices on Asian session still hit the strong support for Hillary Clinton to become President of United States, the article that sentiment elevate the dollar so the price of the precious metal declined. But in the American session series of economic data could weaken the US dollar that triggered the increase in gold prices. Technically, gold can rise to the range of 1328.64-1334.28 if the current gold price correction is not up to the range . So the normal range of XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1320.60 and resistance level at 1349.24.
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Cocoa futures price on ICE Futures at the end of trading on Wednesday morning closed with the higher prpice or was rising up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered by declining yields. Cocoa prices rose after the buyers said a major producer Ivory Coast in the 2016-17 season face a slow start to the cocoa beans arrive at the port ahead of the new trading period, due to the mid-crop harvest was poor. At the end of trading early this morning Cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up $ 23 dollars or 0.81 percent at 2,868 dollars per ton. Tonight will be released August Durable Goods Orders data is indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. The price of cocoa futures for the next trading potentially strengthened by the potential weakening US dollar and tightening supply. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2,920 dollar. If the resistance level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,970 dollars. While the level of support that will penetrate if there is a decline is at 2820 dollars.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures New York exchange at the closing on Wednesday morning (28/09) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the projected decline of coffee production. Brazilian crop supply agency Conab cut its forecast for 2016 production of coffee of the country after the loss of a drought in the area robusta which hinder gains in arabica area. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5370 dollar positions, rose 0.15 cents, or equivalent to 0.10 percent.Tonight will be released August Durable Goods Orders data is indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. The price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade is projected to rise with a potential weakening of US dollar and actually has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.6000 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline is at 1.4800 dollars
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Sugar futures prince on ICE futures in New York Wednesday morning (28/09) observed ended up soaring to the highe level. The increase in sugar prices approaching the 2012 peak last week and expand the overbought technical level as dealers focused on tight supplies, while the spread narrowed place before the end of October on Friday. "I think the general view is our deficit has gone up for the next season starts on October 1 will get more and more common," said a trader in London. Spreading October / March SBV6-H7 discount narrowed as much as 0.42 cents from 0.58 percent on Monday. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 was observed to increase. The most active price of sugar futures have closed jumped 0.32 cents, or equivalent to 1.38 percent at 23.44 cents per pound.Tonight will be released August Durable Goods Orders data is indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. Raw sugar futures price estimeated to have potential to rise amid the concerns with production deficits and a weakening US dollar. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 24.50 cents. While support level which will be tested if prices is declining is at 23.00 cents per pound.
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CPO futures in Malaysia commodity exchanges on Tuesday (27/09) was observed to fall. A weaker CPO prices this afternoon triggered weakening of crude oil in the Asian trading session Crude oil futures prices slipped in Asian trade on Tuesday (27/09) as investors took profits after prices rose more than 3 percent in the previous session. The US dollar also weighed on oil prices once rose against a basket of currencies, with the market showing ratings Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton as the winner in the first US presidential debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump.The decline in crude oil prices to trigger negative sentiment that makes the price of CPO in the downward trend. The weakening in crude oil prices make alternative fuels such as those made of CPO declined his request. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems weakening contract price in December 2016 which is the most active contract fell by -25 ringgit and traded at 2,686 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures at the next trade will pay attention to the movement of crude oil prices, which if it continues to weaken will push the price of CPO, also to test the support level at 2,640 ringgit. While the level of resistance to be tested if there was a strengthening is at 2,740 ringgit.
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Gold price movements on European session (06:25:35 GMT / 13:30 pm) is sluggish after the price opened higher at 1338.05 in early trading (0000 GMT), now XAUUSD's rolling value is at 1333.20. The price of gold on early Europe session still show a cheaper price than the previous trade by strengthening of US dollar after US presidential debate a few hours ago that gave support to Hillary Clinton. But in the American session, beware with CBI result which might be undermine the US dollar. Gold can rise to around the range of 1340.35-1346.24 if the current gold price correction don't reach the range of 1331.83-1327.05. So the normal range of XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1321.60 and resistance level at 1350.38.
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Pound exchange rate movements on European session (06:45:35 GMT / 13:45 GMT) moves positively against US dollar after opened higher at 1.2976 in early trading (0000 GMT), the exchange rate pound rose 23 pips and rolling values are at 1.2999. Pound is still able to move amid strong US dollar on EU session gains momentum after the US Presidential candidate debate providing support to Hillary Clinton. But watch out for correction by the CBI that showed British retail sales in August . This data is expected to show a lower data from the previous period. GBPUSD will rise steadily to around 1.3018-1.3050, but if there is a correction will fall back towards the strong support. And if it breaks the range of strong support then the pair will fall to the weak support. So the normal range of GBPUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.2881 and the resistance level at 1.3067.
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USDJPY pair movement in the Asian session (03:10:35 GMT / 10:10 GMT) is moving strongly after opened lower at 100.32 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair's rolling value is at 100.85. Yen ended on Asian session with a way to weaken against the US dollar by the strengthening US dollar momentum after the debate candidate for President of the United States that provide plenty of support for Hillary Clinton. Additionally yen weakened by BOJ policy treatise that is ready to continue easing Policy. Fundamentally, USDJPY will rise to the range of 101.10-101.70, but if there is a correction back during the American session later, the pair may fall back towards the range between 100,04-99.80. So the normal range of USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 89.70 and the resistance level at 101.69.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (27/09) observed rose in the end of trading. Arabica coffee price increases supported by dry weather increase production. Arabica coffee futures price increases, according to the dealers affected dry weather in Brazil has helped to support the market. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5355 dollar positions, rose 2.15 cents, or equivalent to 1.42 percent. Tonight will be released CB Consumer Confidence September indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. Arabica coffee futures estimated at the next trade is projected to rise with the potential weakening of USD Dollar and has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5650 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the price decline is at 1.5050 dollars.
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Euro exchange rate movements on European session (06:40:35 GMT) weakened against US dollar after opening higher at 1.1253 in early trading (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate is now rolling at the position around 1.1245. Euro tumbled as the respond on European session after US dollar strengthening itself since the US Presidential candidate debate which provide strong support for candidate, Hillary Clinton. Besides EURO under pressure from negative sentiment coming from the data import price data for Germany in August which showed a contraction data. Fundamentally EURUSD could move up on US session towards 1.1260-1.1295 range if the current correction pair did not reach the range of strong support. And if it breaks strong support will pressed down the price more to around 1.1190 range. And today is expected to have the support level at 1.1162 and the resistance level at 1.1330.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Australian Dollar or so called Aussie exchange rate movements at the end of the Asian session (03:30:35 GMT / 8:50 pm) is moving strongly against the US dollar, after the price opened higher exactly at 0.7635 in early trading (0000 GMT), Aussie exchange rate rose around 32 pips and the rolling values are at 0,7667. Australian dollar exchange rate end of the Asian session still shows that the movement of US dollar continued to rally against the previous trading rose by movements in world crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rallied back until the end of the Asian session. AUDUSD is fundamentally going to rise to the range between 0.7678 and 0.7699, and if there is a correction may fall into the range of 0.7605-0.7581. So it could be argued that the normal range of AUDUSD is estimated to have the support level at 0.7561 and the resistance level at 0.7699. -
Tin futures price in Malaysia Stock Exchange steady on Tuesday (27/09). Stable prices with investors looking forward to the development of global markets which examine the results of the first debate of US Presidential candidates.This morning was held the first debate of US Presidential candidates, including Hillary Clinton from the Democratic Party to deal with Donald Trump of the Republican Party. The price of tin in Malaysia observed stable commodity exchanges today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19,600 dollars per ton, the same as the previous closing on weekends at 19,600 and tonight will be released CB Consumer Confidence September indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. It seems that Tin's future price on Malaysian Exchange at the next trade is projected to rise since US dollar has potential to weaken. Price will face the resistance level at 19,800 dollars and 20,000 dollars. But if there is a decrease, the price of tin will face a support level at 19,400 dollars and 19,200 dollars.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Natural rubber prices Tocom futures trading on Tuesday afternoon (27/09) ended down to the lower level. Weakening Tocom rubber prices decline in crude oil prices dampened on Asian session. Crude oil futures prices slipped in Asian trade on Tuesday (27/09) as investors took profits after prices rose more than 3 percent in the previous session. US dollar also weighed on oil prices once rose against a basket of currencies, with the market showing ratings of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton as the winner in the first US presidential debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump. The weakening in crude oil prices make synthetic rubber production costs become cheaper. The impact demand for commodities like natural rubber is traded on Tocom decreased.In today's trading, the price of rubber futures for the most active contract on Tokyo commodity exchanges that contract ends by -4.5 yen or -2.7 percent, to 164.0 yen per kilogram, down from its previous close at 168 , 5 yen per kilogram. Natural Rubber Tocom's price movement estimated to be weakened on the next session with the potential weakening of Crude Oil that can push prices of Rubber. But also need to be observed movement of weakened Yen this afternoon if it continues will strengthen Tocom rubber prices. Commodity prices Tocom rubber futures exchange will test the support level at 159.00 yen and 154.00 yen. Prices will meet resistance at the level of 169.00 and 174.00 yen if the price is in positive territory. -
Cocoa futures on ICE Futures trading late Tuesday morning (27/09) was closed down. Weakening prices triggered by cocoa surplus forecast global cocoa production. "The forecast for the next season is quite positive, at least with regard to the most important region of West Africa," said Michaela Kuhl, an analyst at Commerzbank. Abundant rain and sun in most areas of the main cocoa crop Ivory Coast seems to have improved prospects for the 2016/17 main crop in the world's top grower. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract was observed to be closed weakened. Commodity prices closed down by -7 dollars or 0.25 percent at 2,845 dollars per ton. It estimated that Cocoa futures price for the next trade will move in the trend of limited gain potential of dollar weakness. For the next trading price of cocoa futures has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2,900 dollar. While support level which may be penetrated if there is a weakening movement is at 2,800 dollars.
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Sugar futures price on ICE exchange US in New York Tuesday morning (27/09) ended up triggered the estimated deficit in sugar production. Dealers said the market was supported forecasts weak end the destruction of cane this season in the key areas of Center-South of Brazil and the increase in the size of the global sugar deficit forecast by analysts Platts Kingsman. Platts Kingsman on Monday raised its forecast for global sugar deficit anticipated in the 2016/17 season (October / September) from 570,000 tons to 6.45 million tons. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 was observed to increase. That contract surged by 0.42 cent, or the equivalent of 1.85 percent at 23.12 cents per pound. Analyst estimates that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York has potential to rise as concerns with production deficits and a weakening of US dollar. The price also has potential to test the resistance level at 23.60 cents. While the level of support that will be tested if prices decline is at 22.60 cents per pound
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