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myregister
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Arabica Coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (06/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported Colombian coffee production decline. Coffee price rises triggered a 2 percent drop in the production of Colombia in September. Production in Colombia, reaching the last few months by the truckers strike and damage caused by the El Nino droughts. Coffee farmers in the country are now looking forward to the weather phenomenon La Nina may provide the potential for heavy rain. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract closed up at 1.4820 dollar rose 0.75 cents, or equivalent to 0.51 percent. Analyst estimates price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures at the next trade is projected to rise by the weakening of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5100 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.4500 dollars and 1.4200 dollars.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The movement of US dollar on forex market this week passable profitable so continued to strengthen since the beginning of the week trading despite the negative sentiment in the shadows. And enter the trading session of the fourth day this week with US Dollar still opened higher pedestal for US private business where its performance improved. This week Markit and US government released data on the business performance of manufacturing and services sectors private show higher data from the previous period to September. This sentiment managed to beat the bad data is ADP employment change is expected to boost the power Fed raise interest rates this year. But for today's trading US dollar rally may be stalled as it weighed expectations of data badly unemployment claims last week period which will be released in the evening session. But it can only continue to weigh its own rally which lack of strong fundamentals that affect the rate of its main rivals. The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies trading when it move stronger after the start of trading on Asia sessio the price opened higher at 96.14 and is now moving position at the position of 96.19. -
Coca futures price at the end of trading on Thursday morning (06/10) closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered by a decline in exports. Cocoa warehouse delivery of the principal growing region of Brazil fell 36 percent from May 1 to October 2, compared with the same period the previous year. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 21 dollars or 0.75 percent at 2,836 dollars per ton. Tonight will be released Continuing Jobless Claims Initial Jobless Claims and indicated increases. If realized, it will depress the US dollar. Analyst estimates that the price of cocoa futures for the next trading potentially strengthened by the potential weakening of the US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures may penetrate the resistance level at 2,890 dollar. If the resistance level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,940 dollars. While the level of support that will penetrate if there is a decline is at 2790 dollars and 2740 dollars.
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USDJPY or Yen against USD movement in the end of Asia session (05:10:35 GMT) still moves in consolidation after the current price before opened in the opening higher at around 103.50, and now right now this pair is located at 103.52. Japanese Yen based on Asia session consolidating after the the price falling badly during 7 consecutive days until he fell to the lows of three weeks US dollar opponent. The lack of strong fundamental directives of Japan makes the yen move follows the US dollar sentiment is still showing strength. Technically USDJPY will rise towards the range in between 103.76-104.15, but if it is not until this range then the pair could go down again towards the range between 103,30-102.24. So i think it could be argued that the normal range for USDJPY pair is estimated to have support level at 101.87 and rresistance level at 104.55.
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CPO futures price on Malaysia commodity exchanges in trading Thursday afternoon (06/10) observed weakening against US Dollar. The drop in CPO prices this afternoon triggered strengthening after ringgit exchange rate against US dollar and weaker crude oil prices. On this afternoon observed the weakening of US dollar against Ringgit. The exchange rate for US dollar-ringgit pair, down around 0.21% at 4.1345. Strengthening Ringgit makes the price of CPO futures which traded is becoming relatively more expensive for overseas buyers so demand decreases. Oil prices slumped depressed profit taking on Thursday (06/10) in the Asian session, but remains near its highest level in June reached in the previous session, supported by a decline in US crude inventories. The decline in crude oil prices to trigger negative sentiment that makes the price of CPO in the downward trend. The weakening in crude oil prices make alternative fuels such as those made of CPO declined his request. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems weakening by 0.6 percent and traded at 2,541 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures price movement at the next trading session may decline with the potential for strengthening ringgit. Price movements can also be affected by movements in crude oil prices, global demand and supply conditions. CPO futures contract prices on Malaysia commodity exchanges has the potential to test support at 2,490 ringgit and 2,440 ringgit. While the level of resistance to be tested if there was a strengthening is at 2,590 ringgit and 2,640 ringgit.
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Pound movement on European session on Thursday (6/10) tried to rebound by the execpectations of the market for US jobless claims data which has dissapointing release in the late night sessio. But the fundamental weakness of the pound post Brexit were echoed by British Prime Minister a few days ago made the pace of this afternoon was still weak. Pound exchange rate could rise if US data are determined to be in line with expectations. Pound exchange rate managed to rebound from the selling pressure for 5 consecutive days by weak UK currency's fundamentals. Rebound's power performance obtained from the country's private sector as reported by PMI Markit's data services in September which rose to 52.6 index points, the value of which is higher than the economists' expectations for a weakening at 52.1 out of period of the previous month at 5.9. Pound exchange rate movements in European session (08:30:35 GMT) weakened against US dollar, after opened lower than the previous trading at 1.2747 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), the exchange rate pound fell 17 pips and the pair rolling in the position of 1.2730. For the next trade until the close of American trading session tomorrow morning, analyst estimates that pair GBPUSD will go up to the range between 1.2771 - 1.2820 and if the correction does not penetrate on European session then this pair will fall to the range between 1.2678-1.2632.
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Euro exchange rate movements are depressed by the strength of US dollar since the Asian trading session till early European session on Thursday where the price managed to rebound after Destatis reported factory orders data of Germany in Augus which showed improvement exhibited significantly from the previous month period. However trimmed back by a strong US dollar fundamentals that elevate US dollar since the beginning of the Asian session. Destatis Data announced factory orders in August rose to 1%, which beat expectations for a rise of 0.5%, while the previous month period only at 0.3%. But solid economic data from Germany is not able to energize the euro to rally after earlier trading got power of business performance data PMI by Markit. European session the euro exchange rate movements which depreciated against the US dollar, after the price of this pair opened lower than the previous trading at 1.1204 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate of natural decline and is now rolling value for this pair at 1.1199. For the next trade until the close of trading in the ending of United States session tomorrow morning then analyst estimated that EURUSD pair will go up to the range between 1.1216 - 1.1249 which act as resistance if the pair is not, then it will corrected down to the range between 1.1181-1.1163.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements in Asian session (04:25:35 GMT) moving strongly against the US dollar, after the price opened higher at 0.7622 in early trading (0000 GMT), where the exchange rate fell around 38 pips Aussie and the rolling value of this pair is at 0,7584. Aussie exchange rate on Asian session tried to rebound by the positive trade balance data in August Australia's natural repair. But entering the European session slipped back to respond to the strong US dollar and falling oil prices by profit taking. Technically AUDUSD may fall to the range in between 0.7565-0.7530, but if it is not until these ranges, then pair may rise towards 0.7627-0.7670 range. So it seems that it could be argued that the normal range for AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7538 and the resistance level at 0.7695. -
Tin's price on Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Thursday afternoon (06/10). The increase in the price of tin supported the strengthening of Wall Street and Asian markets. Stocks closed higher in late trading on Thursday morning, supported a surge in crude oil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 112.58 points, or 0.62 percent, to close at 18,281.03. The S & P 500 rose 9.24 points, or 0.43 percent, to finish at 2,159.73. The Nasdaq index rose 26.36 points, or 0.5 percent, to close at 5,316.02. This afternoon monitored all the major indices on Asian region moving in the green zone, supported gains on Wall Street and rising crude oil prices overnight. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19,880 dollars per ton, up $ 30 dollars or 0.2 percent from its previous close at 19 850. Tonight will be released Continuing Jobless Claims Initial Jobless Claims and indicated increases. If realized, it will depress the US dollar. Tin futures price movement has potential to strengthen further limited by the potential weakening of US dollar. Price will face the resistance level at 20,100 dollars and 20,300 dollars. But if there is a decrease, the price of tin will face a support level at 19,700 dollars and 19,500 dollars.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures at New York trading Wednesday morning (05/10) closed with the price fall deeper. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed by the strengthening of the US dollar. The US dollar broadly strengthened against Pound, Euro and the four other major currencies. Up to 13-day highs helped by an increase in growth in the US manufacturing sector prompted investors to raise their bets on a rate hike at the end of the year. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 at 1.4745 dollars, down by -0.10 cents, equivalent to 0.07 per cent. Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar. The potential to test support at 1.4450 dollars and 1.4150 dollars. While the resistance that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.5050 dollars and 1.5350 dollars.
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At the end of trading Wednesday morning (05/10), Rotterdam soaring coal prices pushed US crude oil price increases. Crude oil prices edged higher in choppy trading in late morning trading on Wednesday inspired by OPEC plans to reduce production, but a stronger dollar and a weaker Wall Street zoomed profit. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for January 2017 is at 71.30 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened by 2.25 dollars or equivalent to 3.26 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be released weekly crude oil inventory data indicated the US is increasing. If realized, it will push the price of crude oil. Analyst estimates that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade will weaken if the realized crude oil prices declined. The price of coal futures could potentially test support level at 70.80 dollars and 70.30 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 71.80 dollars and if able to break it then towards 72.30 dollars.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber price in midday trading Wednesday (04/10) observed to rise. Natural rubber futures prices for the most-active contract on March 2017 triggered the strengthening of Tokyo stock exchange and an increase in Japan's economic growth projections by the IMF. The Nikkei rose 0.52 percent, the possibility is supported by a weaker yen. Pair dollar / yen traded at 102.82 per 12:26 HK / SIN, the lowest in three weeks for the yen. Strengthening also supported an increase in Japan's economic growth forecast by the IMF. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract, namely to contract this afternoon in March 2017 rise by 3.7 yen or 2.2 percent at 169.70 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing at 166.00 yen per kilogram. Analyst estimates that Tocom rubber price movement at the next trade will rise helped by the strengthening of the Tokyo stock exchange and the projected increase in economic growth and the weakening yen. For the next trading session price is expected to meet resistance at 175.00 yen. No further resistance at 180.00 yen. Meanwhile if the price drops will find support at 165.00 yen and 160.00 yen. -
ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Wednesday morning (05/09) closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered tightening worries cocoa plant disruption due to rain. Torrential rains took place last week in most major regions Ivory Coast cocoa crop, improve crop development but caused some farmers fear of flooding and disease when they begin to harvest. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 22 dollars, or 0.79 percent at 2,815 dollars per ton. Tonight will be released economic data Adp September Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI September, exports and imports rose in August indicated. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Analyst estimates that the price of cocoa futures for the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar and has the potential to break support at 2,765 dollars. If the Support level is successfully penetrated then next level is 2,715 dollars. While the level of resistance that will penetrate if there is an increase is at 2,865 dollars and 2,915 dollars.
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The price of sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York Wednesday morning (05/10) ended up triggered production deficit forecasts. A series of meetings in London this week, have included discussions about the estimated global deficit in both the 2015/16 and 2016/17. Mood of traders have been encouraged by the prospects for both global deficit in 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons with the tight supply is expected to significantly during the first quarter of 2017. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 was observed to increase. The price of sugar futures have closed the most active surged by 0.59 cents, or equivalent to 2.60 percent at 23.26 cents per pound Analyst estimates that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York next potentially weak by the strengthening US dollar.and has the potential to test the support level at 22.75 cents. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 24.25 cents per pound.
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USDJPY on the end of Asia session is having consolidation(05:30:35 GMT / 12.00 am) after opening higher at 102.90 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 102.85. Japanese Yen on Asian session moving consolidating after falling badly for 6 days straight to fall to the lows of three weeks. But the movement of the yen is still powered to move stronger after receiving sentiment from IMF projections which raised Japan's economic growth target. Pressure on Yen coming from BOJ governor's speech before the Japanese Parliament that states will cut interest rates if needed though would not do so in the near future. Technically USDJPY will rise towards the range in between 103.21-103.75, but if it is not until this range then the pair could go down again towards the range between 102,36-101.92. So it could be argued that the normal range on the USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 100.70 and the resistance level at 104.31
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Crude oil prices slumped on Tuesday (04/10) in Asia session, weighed down by a rise in exports of Iran which adds to global oversupply, although OPEC plans to cut production of crude oil this year. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was down 20 cents or 0.41 percent to $ 48.61 per barrel, while International crude oil futures prices Brent traded at $ 50.77 a barrel, down 12 cents or 0.24 percent from its previous close. Traders said prices depressed by the latest hike in the sales of Iranian crude oil and condensate, which is likely to reach about 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, almost culminating in the delivery before sanctions are imposed on manufacturers of OPEC in 2011. Analysts say Iran will strive to increase production further and reach the level of pre-sanctions make it more likely Tehran will agree on some form of production constraints with other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), including rival regional Saudi Arabia, which also pumps oil approaching record levels. The US bank said the price factor is important to be seen in the coming weeks, including discussions on the production of the members of the non-OPEC, especially with Russia, production in OPEC as its members try to squeeze the oil before it is cut or frozen, hedging by producers to 2017 as a guide to future prices, and US inventories and import data. Crude oil prices will weaken US dollar and depressed through strengthening global glut concerns, while new production cut deal will be held next November. Crude oil prices are expected to move in the range between the support at $ 48,10- $ 47.60, and if the price rises will move in the range of resistance betwee $ 49,10- $ 49.60.
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Euro exchange rate movements in the end of Asia session (07:10:35 GMT / 14:15 pm) move negatively againste US dollar after the price opened lower at 1.1204 in early trading (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate is now rolling on the position of 1.1213. The euro is moving strongly on Asian session because it affected by bargain hunting after the market experienced pressure from the US dollar before trading. In the European session, there are several data services such as PMI to cut back pair, but the American session could rise again if the US data the dollar weakens. Technically, EURUSD rose steadily towards 1.1233-1.1289 range, and if it is not until these ranges can pair down again towards the range betwee 1.1190-1.1154. And if it breaks the range of strong resistance then the pair will go weak resistance. And today is expected to have the support level at 1.1095 and the resistance level at 1.1329.
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The price of tin on Malaysia Stock Exchange fell in trading Wednesday (05/10). Falling prices depressed by the strengthening US dollar. The US dollar broadly strengthened against the pound, the euro and the four other major currencies. Up to 13-day highs helped by an increase in growth in the US manufacturing sector prompted investors to raise their bets on a rate hike at the end of the year. Strengthening of the US dollar makes commodities traded tin denominated in US dollars to be expensive, so demand decreases. The price of tin in Malaysia observed commodity exchanges declined today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19 850 dollars per ton, a decrease of 150 dollars or 0.8 percent from its previous close at 20,000. Analyst estimates that Malaysian tin price movements at the next trade if potentially weak US dollar continue to strengthen. Price will face the level of support in position at 19 650 dollars and 19 450 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 20 050 dollars and 20 250 dollars.
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Pound exchange rate movements on early European session (06:15:35 GMT / 13:15 GMT) moves negatively against the US dollar after opening lower at 1.2729 in early trading (0000 GMT), the pound exchange rate fell by 34 pips and rolling values are at 1.2695. Pound on the beginning of the European session before moving weak was gained majority of gains on Asia session. Strong force come from Markit PMI service data estimates which are still optimistic sentiment beat Brexit time that set by Theresa May. But when the London session opened, the market will not hesitate to data from Markit way that makes the pair stressed enough. But in the evening session may be lifted if the US data the dollar weakens. Technically GBPUSD can rise to the range between 1.2771-1.2822 if the pair fails to fall in the range between 1.2660-1.2630 which act as support. So it could be argued that the normal range for GBPUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.2607 and the resistance level at 1.2903.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements on Asian session (04:25:35 GMT / 11:20 GMT) moving strongly against US dollar, after opening higher at 0.7622 in early trading (0000 GMT), fall down around 12 pips and Aussie exchange rate and the rolling value is at 0,7634. Pair has reached the range of strong support. Aussie on Asian session managed to rebound from the previous trading sentiment weakening economic data released early trading and managed to break the crude oil price correction sentiment. Economic data gave such power that retail sales in September increased 0.4% after the previous month it is just 0%. Technically AUDUSD attempted to climb on to the range between 0.7650-0.7690, but if there is a correction, the pair may fall towards 0.7603-0.7570 range. So analyst argued that the normal range of AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7506 and the resistance level at 0.7732. -
Gold price movements on the end of the Asian session (05:45:35 GMT / 12:50 GMT) move stronger against US Dollar after the price opened lower at 1268.50 in early trading (0000 GMT), the gold price is now rolling at 1273.00. The price of gold since the beginning of Asian trading session affected in sizeable amount by bargain hunting as the respond of naturally weak US dollar and also the majority of Asian markets. The price of gold will be more expensive if US economic data this evening to press a lot of dollars. Technically, gold could rise again towards the range between 1283.33-1296.62, and if it does not reach the range is expected to be corrected again to the bottom of the range which at 1265.32. So the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1249.68 and resistance level at 1316.89.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia commodity exchanges tracked down in trading Wednesday afternoon (05/10). The weakening in CPO prices following the weakening of soybean oil as a rival. Soybean futures Chicago Board of Trade fell on Tuesday after profit-taking surge, the harvesting pressure Monday and hopes that the US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate of soybean yield probably next week, traders said. CBOT November soybeans ended down 9.5 cents at $ 9.63 to 1/2 per bushel. Palm oil prices are influenced by soybean oil, as both compete for its share in the global vegetable oil market. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems weakened. The contract price in December 2016 which is the most active contract depreciated by -13 ringgit or -0.5 percent and traded at 2,587 ringgit per tonne. Analyst estimates that the price movement of CPO futures at the next trade is projected to rise to a potential weakening ringgit and the increase in crude oil. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges November 2016 Malaysia has the potential to test the resistance level at 2,610 ringgit . While the level of support that will be tested if prices decline is at 2,510 ringgit.
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Gold price movements of on Asia session engaged weak against US Dollar after this precious commodity price opened lower att 1312.55 in early trading, and right now the rolling value of this previous commodity is at around 1311.80. The price of gold since the beginning already weak trade continuing selling pressure on the previous 5 days and as respond to the strong performance of Asian stock markets. The market sells a lot of gold to chase stocks that are profitable. Besides the pressure also came from the US dollar rally is quite high. But the lack of fundamentals driving US dollar today could trigger a rebound in gold prices. Technically, gold is rising up towards the range between 1313.68-1320.62, and if did not reach that range between then the price is expected to be corrected again to the bottom at 1306.96. So analyst argued that the normal range pair for XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1297.26 and the resistance level at 1325.17
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Pound exchange rate movements on the early European session (06:15:35 GMT / 134.15 WIB) move negatively against US dollar after the price is opened higher at 1.2843 in early trading, fall down around 4 pips and the rolling value of GBPUSD in this session is at 1.2822. Pair almost transparent range of strong support. Pound continue its weak movement on EU session earlier by fundamental weakness of the currency after Theresa May set time for UK exit release statement from the European Union, namely in March 2017. The movement today will receive negative sentiment from Markit data reported to the state construction business performance. Technically GBPUSD will fall down again to the range of 1.2805-1.2774, but if it fails to reach around that range then correction may happened and the pair will rise towards the range between 1.2874-1.2910. so the analyst suggests that the range of normal pair for GBPUSD today estimated to have the support level at 1.2749 and the resistance level at 1.3025.
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The movement of USDJPY on the end of the Asia session is further rally after the price opened higher at 101.66 in early trading, and right now the pair's price is located at 102.21. Pair have managed to penetrate the strong daily resistance range. Yen on Asia session gains momentum again depressed by trading high-risk assets that lifted US dollar, while Yen is still quite weak fundamentally to rebound from pressure for 5 consecutive days. Yen still weakened by positive sentiment of US Dollar despite the rise of the data consumer confidence rose in September last. And today's trading US dollar move without landing strong fundamentals. Technically, USDJPY will go down to the range between 101.54-101.27, but if it is not until these ranges, this pair may rise towards the range between 102,44-102.67. So it seems that the normal range of USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 100.75 and the resistance level at 102.18.