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myregister
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A good reports from ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) Tuesday (11/10) for a survey of investor sentiment for the German economy and the euro area in the period October not able to lift euro that has been depressed since the beginning of week trading. Momentum sentiment of strengthening US dollar exchange rate is stronger suppress Euro US dollar strength ahead of the growing American trading session opened after the night before the Columbus Day holiday. The strong dollar sentiment derived from expectations of Fed rate hike in December this year despite last weekend had dimmed when the non-farm payrolls in September was disappointing. Euro exchange rate movement on European session tumbled badly against the US dollar, after the price of this pair opened lower than the previous trading at 1.1137 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate experienced a decrease 55 pips and is now rolling at 1.1083. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, analyst estimates that EURUSD pair will drop to the range between 1.1076 - 1.1051. And if there is a correction, the pair may rise towards the range between 1.1145-1.1178.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices in the afternoon trading session on Tuesday (11/10) was observed to rise. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely March 2017 helped Yen weakened. USDJPY currency pair traded higher 0.31 percent at 103.93. A weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Natural rubber prices in Tocom rose by 8.9 yen or 5.12 percent at 182.60 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing at 173.70 yen per kilogram. Tocom rubber price movements in the next trading session today still appreciate the weakening yen. For the next trading session price is expected to meet the level of resistance at 188.00 yen. No further resistance at 193.00 yen. Meanwhile if the price fall down the it will find support at 178.00 yen and 173.00 yen. -
The price of tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Tuesday afternoon (11/10). The increase in the price of tin supported the strengthening of Wall Street and the Shanghai exchange. Stocks closed higher in late trading Tuesday morning, pushed crude oil prices skyrocketing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.49 percent, to close at 18,329.04. The S & P 500 rose 0.46 percent, to end at 2,163.66. The Nasdaq composite index closed down 0.69 percent, at 5,328.67. This afternoon the Shanghai exchange was observed to move in the green zone, up 0.32 percent at 3058.02, supported the statement of optimism the Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang related to the Chinese economy. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed traded at 20 050 dollars per ton, up by 30 dollars, or 0.15 percent from previous close price. Tin's futures price movements price movements at the next trade will weaken limited to the potential strengthening of US dollar. Price will face support level at 19.850 dollars and 19.650 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 20.250 dollars and 20.450 dollars.
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At the end of trading Tuesday morning (11/10), Rotterdam coal prices ended down ignore the rising crude oil prices. Coal prices have eroded by the strengthening US dollar. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.40 percent at 96.90. Strengthening of the US dollar after the second US Presidential candidate debate tends to give Clinton win over Trump. Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in December 2016 dropped towards 73.10 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by -1.40 dollars, equivalent to -1.88 percent compared to the previous closing. Analyst estimates that coal futures price movements at the next trade potentially weak with potentially weakening crude oil prices are expected to hit by profit-taking. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 72.60 dollars and the next support which will be hit if able to break first support at 72.10 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 73.60 dollars and 74.10 dollars.
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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (11/10) closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered the strengthening US dollar. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.40 percent at 96.90. Strengthening of the US dollar after the second US Presidential candidate debate tends memberiakn Clinton win over Trump. A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 was observed to be closed down. The commodity price closed down by 128 dollars towards 2,657 dollars per ton. The price of cocoa futures for the next trade will move in a limited tendency to weaken the potential strengthening of the US dollar. For the next trading Cocoa price has the potential to penetrate support level at 2,600 dollar. If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,550 dollars. While the level of resistance that will penetrate if there was a strengthening there at 2,700 dollars and 2,750 dollars.
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Yen exchange rate movements engaged weaker since early trading last week and resumed when entered the European session. Yen fell against the dollar so easily by the fundamental fragility of Japan by BOJ Governor's plan will reapply the lowest interest rates if economic conditions do not yet support. To drive today's strong fundamentals of the data current account (CA) Japan is less capable of providing power stronger than US dollar strengthening sentiment. After Yen received a blow from Japan's Cabinet Office report which announces condition gloomy Japanese economic sentiment index score down by a decline in the expectation of rising data. Yen exchange rate movements on European session observed weakened against the US dollar, USDJPY's price actually opened higher at 103.62 in early trading and also was ascend around 22 pips and this pair rolling value is at 103.84. For the movement of this pair until the end of New York session this evening can only retreat if US economic data disappoint the dollar, so the analyst estimates that the price of USDJPY may be further dropped to the range of 103.44 to 102.85 if the strengthening of the pair did not reach the range 104,12-104.37.
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Gold price movements on Asian session (05:00:35 GMT / 11.00) is sluggish after the price of this precious commodity opened lower at 1259.75 in early trading (0000 GMT), the gold price is now rolling at 1257.33. High gold prices could move right through the strong resistance. Gold prices experienced profit taking since the beginning of Asia session after earlier trading natural reinforcement received a US dollar rally business sentiment after a weekend of intense pressure from the natural NFP report in September. But in the American session USD could re-corrected so as to make the price of gold rose again. Technically, gold could rise again towards the range between 1264.06-1268.46 if the decline in gold prices is now not reach the range of strong support. If translucent strong support will continue to fall to around 1241.90, but a break-resistant strength will go up to 1276.75. So the normal range of XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1241.96 and resistance level at 1271.74.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The rally in crude oil prices entered European trading session after successfully penetrate the increasingly tight range at $ 50 per barrel on the previous trading, but made no effort to press the commodity exchange rate of US dollar. Instead exchange commodities such as Australian Dollar advanced to a weak position since this currency plunged to lows of two weeks of trading. In addition, to the momentum of the US dollar strength, Aussie got a pressure after bad home loan level data in Australia reported ABS even before NAB report data is unchanged from the previous period. The strong US dollar to trade this afternoon to make the pace of its rivals, including the Australian dollar which is becoming weaker. By the strengthening Australian dollar, oil prices are only able to strengthen against other rivals such as Euro, Yen, and Sterling. Strong rally in oil prices will be supported by Russian support of OPEC commitment to cut oil production major manufacturers, including Russian state. Australian dollar exchange rate movements on European session is moving weak against the US dollar, after the price of this pair opened lower at around 0.7606 early in Asia trading session, the Australian dollar exchange rate is now rolling on the position of 0.7551. For subsequent trade to the end of American session this evening the price of this pair estimated will drop to the range of 0.7537-0.7518. But if it is not to be able to ascend right to its pivot line first then this pair may have a strong resistance point and may ascend to higher price range. -
The price of CPO in Malaysia commodity exchanges rose on Tuesday afternoon (11/10). CPO price hike this afternoon supported the weakening ringgit, the exchange rate of USDMYR observed to rise around 0.24 percent at 4.1567. The weakening ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so that demand is increasing. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to have increased where it rise around 38 ringgit, or 1.5 percent and traded at 2,580 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures at the next trade potentially strengthened by the potential weakening ringgit. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in December 2016 Malaysia has the potential to test the resistance level at 2,630 ringgit. While support level which will be tested if prices decline is at 2,530 ringgit and 2,480 ringgit.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
At the beginning of European session forex trading on Tuesday (11/10) the US dollar is getting stronger and beat all major rivals despite poor fundamentals of NFP data which was disappointing. US dollar strength rests more on fundamental weakness of its main rivals. In addition the market tried to recline back on FOMC meeting minutes release last September which signaling the Fed interest rate will be raised by the end of this year. This sentiment also reopen once again the rate hike expectations of US central bank. To this day, the fundamental driving force of the country is not a strong driving force, such as small business performance data according to the NFIB survey and report on labor market conditions of the country by Fed. Both of these data showed the expected positive data. The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies is trading stronger and move to higher price after the start of trading on Asia session opened higher at 96.90 and is now moving position at 97.24. -
Exchange rate of British pound in European trading session on Tuesday (11/10) weakened against US dollar by the strong sentiment after Brexit market considerations. The negative sentiment is getting stronger as reported by the leaking of government documents that wrote the UK will experience a loss of tax revenue of £ 66 billion, or approximately US $ 81 million per year if the country out of the EU. The movement pounds last few days is very distressed by this Brexit sentiment especially early last week British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a time for the British government to take care of the process of the release of the UK from the European Union more rapidly in March. Pound exchange rate has fallen to 5 percent responded Brexit sentiment that was out previously. Pound exchange rate movements in the European session (08:45:35 GMT) weakened against US dollar, after the price opened lower than the previous trading at 1.2363 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), the exchange rate pound fell around 66 pips and the pair rolling in the position of 1.2297 , For the next trade until the close of American session tomorrow morning, analyst estimates GBPUSD will go down to the range between 1.2237 - 1.2176. But if it does not reach the range, it can only go up or ascend again towards the range of 1.2391-1.2487.
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The best place to invest money is more than one, if you want to spend much of your time to seek it online through search engine and so on i think you can find it, but i see that many said bond and stock is one of the most favourable way for us to invest our own money and including forex itself which is keep growing and if you have good analytical skill then it would be a good idea.
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And by understand the risk you will get in forex you also will be able to grab much profit later. In the end you will gain more than just bucks but also continuous income which i think is pretty good. But in the end you should at least each week or each month to re think about your position and how far you gain profit, if so far is good then you shouldn't change your strategy.
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practice to be consistent on the profit obtained
myregister replied to rizal83's topic in Forex Newbies
And with practicing someone will be able to be consistent when it comes to make profit in foreign exchange. If you obtain more profit then you will likely to become greedy than before, well this isn't happening to some but in fact this one is happening to most of us who just start our career as foreign exchange trader. -
Risk will be always exist in foreign exchange and as far as i know if someone want to remove the risk they will also need to remove their chance to make profit. In the end what makes foreign exchange as profitable business is because it is risky, if that is not risky i doubt that it will be profitable and people want to invest here.
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In the end of Asia session this pair(USDJPY) movement still moving weak after the price of this pair opened higher at 103.29 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair rolling value is at 103.11. Japanese Yen entering the European session also moves bearish just like earlier session and already rebounded at the end of last week by the pressure experienced by US dollar after US NFP data. Japan's financial markets and the American public still bought the sentiment so that the movement of this pair is still supported by the sentiment last weekend. Technically, USDJPY will go down to the range between 102.72-101.87, but if it is not until this range then the pair rise back to the higher level at between 103.41-104.35 range. So it could be argued that the normal range for USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 101.24 and the resistance level at 104.65
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
In the middle of forex trading of Asia session on Monday, US dollar is still showing a weak conditions continued by the pressures experienced in trading late last week. The dollar weakened against other major currency pair, but the exchange rate as commodities gained minor respond to the price of crude oil hit. Since the end of last week US dollar pressured by its main rivals such as Yen, Euro, and Swiss Franc. Fading Fed rate hike expectations after the poor result of US employment data report in September. Last week, US NFP data was the focus of trading last week dropped to a position worse than expected and the previous period. In addition to the bad US NFP data, it seems also the country the unemployment rate increased after the previous period only at 4.9%. Data Unemployment rate experienced a slight increase in the top 5% after 4.9% the previous month only. For the movement of the dollar throughout the day over a rival is driven by fundamental implications because early American financial market holiday kedu week of September. The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies moving weaker after the start of trading Asian session opened higher at 96.53 and the price of this index is now moving at around 96.51. -
Pound movement on European session in this Monday (10/10) rebounded after the price of this pair falling last two trading days in a row amid resurgent US dollar against many of its rivals. Since the beginning of the Asian session British pound exchange rate is still hit by the adverse events that occurred in Asian trade Friday. Before the British currency has been pressured by Hard Brexit sentiment echoed by British Prime Minister Theresa May earlier this week that made pair GBPUSD moves in the red zone. Pound exchange rate movements in European session strengthened against US dollar, after the price opened lower than the previous trading at 1.2401 in early Asian trade, the exchange rate pound rose around 27 pips and the pair rolling value is at 1.2428. For the next trade until the close of trading which is the ending of New York session tomorrow morning, i think that the price of this pair will estimated to be bullish and will rise up to the rnage between 1.2478 - 1.2574. But if it does not reach the range, it can only go down again to the range between 1.2334-1.2297.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie dollar exchange rate movements on early European session still gets a pressure against US dollar after the weekend and trying to pull a sigh of relief from bad trades throughout the first weekend of October. Aussie has not been able to strengthen even though the price of crude oil rebounded from the European session profit taking last weekend. Since the beginning of the session, AUDUSD is difficult to move forward hampered by China's economic data such as data Caixin Service PMI which declined less than the previous period. And further pressured by weakness in crude oil prices. But this afternoon the price of crude oil lifted by optimistic that Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister freezing OPEC production agreement in November, therefore the price of WTI oil rose by 1%. Australian dollar exchange rate movements on European session (11:10:45 GMT) moving weak against the price of US dollar, after the price opened higher at 0.7610 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), the Australian dollar exchange rate is now rolling at around 0.7590. For subsequent trade to the American trading session up to the end in this evening, analyst estimate that AUDUSD pair may rise again to around 0.7617-0.7650 range, and if the correction the pair did not happened then the price may get through the range of 0.7575-0.7562. -
In late trading the weekend early Saturday (08/10), the price of coal Rotterdam ended weaker and depressed by the declining of crude oil prices. Crude oil prices fell more than 1% in late trading weekend early Saturday after by triggered profit taking last week. Crude oil prices rallied nearly 15 percent to a four-month high amid expectations OPEC crude oil production cuts. Also weighing on the market is the steady rise in US oil drilling because of the trade price at or near $ 50 per barrel. A report on the oil services company Baker Hughes on Friday showed the US added drillers refinery in 14 of the last 15 weeks. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in November 2016 which slipped to around 76.05 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 0.55 dollars, compared to the previous closing. Weekly coal prices jumped 9.5 percent surge in crude oil prices supported. Analyst estimates that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade is projected to rise by dollar weakness after weak US jobs data. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 76.50 dollars and 77.00 dollars. While the level of support that will be tested if prices decline is at 75.50 dollars and then towards 75.00 dollars.
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Having managed a strong rebound in trading late last week by the pressures experienced by US dollar after NFP data in September 2016, Euro exchange rate which could move strong on early Asian session fell back ahead of trading on New York session. Though, euro this afternoon gain a positive sentiment from some positive economic data. After the European markets opened two statistics office Euro Area Destatis and as well as the institute Istat investor survey gave a positive report on the trade balance data German and Italian industrial production. In addition there are the data based on a survey Sentix investor sentiment which showed an increase in scores optimistic. The data above is a fundamental driver of the minor so under powered lift the euro. Based on that the Euro exchange rate on European session observed depreciated against US dollar, after the price of this strong currency opened lower than the previous trading at 1.1181 on early Asian trade , the Euro exchange rate experienced a decrease around 15 pips and is now rolling at 1.1166. For the next trade until the end which is the closed of American session tomorrow morning, analyst estimates EURUSD pair will make a bearish sentiment and fall to around the range between 1.1159 - 1.1118. And if there is a correction, this pair will rise to the higher level or between the range of 1.1194-1.1213.
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Gold price movements on Asian session move stronger than what people expected after the price of this precious commodity opened higher at 1257.90 in early trading , and the gold price is now rolling at 1263.65. It is also observed that gold spot price nearly made it past the strong resistance range. The price of gold plummeted in two consecutive trading weeks by the strength of US dollar where its finally rebounded for the first time starting the second week of October trading. Throughout the day the price of gold is expected to remain strong by fading expectations of Fed rate hikes after the US NFP lapran last weekend. Technically, gold could rise again towards the range between 1266.46-1277.90, but if there is a correction then this pair may come down again. So it seems that it could be argued that the normal range for XAUUSD pair today is expected to have support at 1230.43 and the resistance level at 1286.83.
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CPO price on Malaysia commodity exchange rose on Monday afternoon (10/10). CPO price hike this afternoon triggered by weakening exports and looking forward to the release of Malaysian CPO inventory data. El Nino that brought scorching heat damage plants in Southeast Asia, which impacted the results of the two largest producers of oil in Malaysia and Indonesia disrupted. September Malaysian exports seen falling to 1.53 million tons, down 15.5 percent from a record 1.81 million tonnes the previous month. Malaysian palm oil inventory is likely to grow in September from a near six-year low the previous month, extending the increase in production and a decline in export demand. Inventories were forecast to rise 3.1 percent in September to 1.51 million tons, according to a Reuters poll of eight planters, traders and analysts. Which would mark the first rise in the stock since June. These results will be released on October 10 this. CPO price most active contract on MCE today seems to have increased. The contract price rose as much as 8 ringgit, and traded at 2,569 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures' price at the next trade will weaken with the potential for strengthening ringgit and weaker crude oil. CPO futures price has the potential to test support at position 2,520 ringgit. While the resistance level to be tested if the price increase is at 2,620 ringgit and 2,670 ringgit.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
TOCOM rubber on Tokyo commodity exchange got its holiday this Monday to celebrate the sport in Japan. Tocom rubber prices in late trading Friday weekend (07/10) finished up. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely March 2017 rose helped by rising crude oil prices. US crude oil prices hold above $ 50 a barrel Friday in Asia as a whole curve of crude oil forward curve rose above the surface which indicates that the financial markets have increased confidence in the sector. Energy ministers from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq will be among representatives of major OPEC producers met with Russia, which is not a member of OPEC, for informal talks next week on the sidelines of an energy conference in Istanbul, OPEC sources said on Thursday. The increase of crude oil prices make synthetic rubber production cost becomes more expensive. The impact demand for commodities like natural rubber is traded on Tocom has increased significantly. Natural rubber prices on March 2017 ended up with rose by 1.7 yen or 1.00 percent at 173.60 yen per kilogram, after reaching its highest at the beginning of the session. Weekly Tocom rubber prices rose about 6 percent, largely supported the increase in crude oil prices, the weakening of the yen and the strengthening of the Tokyo stock exchange. Tocom rubber price movement at the next trade will examine the movement of Yen and Crude oil. With the easing of US interest rate hike expectations after weak US jobs data, the US dollar weakens and potentially strengthen Yen. Prices are expected to meet support at 169.00 yen. Meanwhile if the price rises will meet resistance at 179.00 yen. -
Crude oil prices fell on Asian session pressured by the doubt of OPEC plans to cut production could curb global oversupply that has hit the market for more than two years. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 47 cents to $ 49.34 per barrel. Brent crude futures traded at $ 51.49 a barrel, down 44 cents, or 0.85 percent. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed on a plan to cut production at the end of November. The range targeted is cutting production of between 32.50 million to 33.0 million bpd. OPEC's current output stood at a record 33.6 million barrels per day. To reach such an agreement, some of which such as Saudi Arabia and Iran are political rivals, OPEC officials begin a series of meetings in the next six weeks, starting in Istanbul this week. However, analysts warned of too high expectations about the Istanbul talks this week. "A meeting between OPEC and producers-OPEC non (ie Russia) will add headlines oil this week. Do not expect a deal companies from Russia, but probably about cooperation, "said Morgan Stanley on Monday. Even if an agreement is reached, analysts believe it will lead to higher prices, because of doubt running between members of rival, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. Field of hope, the second largest producer of OPEC Iraq said at the weekend that he wants to increase production further in 2017. Traders said prices were also under pressure from the increase in the number of US refineries, implying that American manufacturers can increase production at a price of around $ 50 per barrel. Crude oil prices further potentially weak with doubt planned production cut OPEC. However, with the weakening of US dollar by the weakening of US job data can help boost oil prices. Crude oil prices are expected to move between $ 48,80- $ 48.30 support, and if the price rises will move between $ 49,80- $ 50.30 resistance.