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myregister
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices on Friday afternoon finished with the price with bullish sentiment. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely March 2017 helped strengthen weaker yen and rising crude oil prices. USDJPY observed rise around 0.3 percent at 104.01. A weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Tocom rubber price increases also supported the rise of crude oil in the Asian trading session. The increase in crude oil prices make synthetic rubber production cost becomes more expensive. The impact demand for commodities like natural rubber is traded on Tocom has increased significantly. Natural rubber prices in Tocom rose by 5.5 yen or 3.1 percent at 183.30 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing at 177.80 yen per kilogram. It estimates that Tocom rubber price movements in the next trading session today still appreciate by the weakening yen. For the next trading session price is expected to meet the resistance level at 188.00 yen. No further resistance at 193.00 yen. Meanwhile if the price for some reason fall down it will find support level at 178.00 yen and 173.00 yen. -
British pound in the European trading session continued the difficulty of rallies on 2 consecutive days before, after all the fundamental driving force for British currency is very weak today. Pound until the American session tonight under pressure from some of the momentum that amplify signals Fed rate hike in December. On previous session, GBP managed a strong opponent of US dollar received a strong sentiment of the attitude of British prime minister Theresa May that included parliament the country in the process Brexit. Pound exchange rate movements on European session weakened against US dollar, after price opened lower at 1.2253 in early Asian session, the pound exchange rate fell by 13 pips and the pair is at 1.2240. For the next trade until the close of trading in the end of US session tomorrow morning then the analyst estimates that GBPUSD pair will go down to the range in between 1.2152 - 1.2044. But if it does not reach that range then it may rise towards the range between 1.2272-1.2346 or even higher
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Sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York early on Friday (14/10) ends slump triggered profit taking. The decline in sugar prices to ignore the positive sentiment as the weakening US dollar, strengthening of the Brazilian Real, as well as higher crude oil prices. Profit taking continues utilize sugar levels on a monthly basis jumped 9 percent, prompting traders cashed in profits. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract observed decline. Sugar's futures have closed and dipped by 0.23 cents or equal to 0.99 percent at 22.92 cents per pound. It estimated that the price of Sugar will keep falling further on the next session. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the support level at 22.40 cents. While the resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 23.40 cents and 23.90 cents per pound.
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LOL this thread still never end? In forex demo account and real account will never beat each others, in fact demo account will be a complementary for real account and vice versa. This is for the sake of traders no matter what is their status, are they newbie or they are experts. All of them still need demo account and of course real account.
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why many people see forex trade as gambling?
myregister replied to rockstar's topic in Forex General Discussion
Nah, this is just the matter of perspective not all people see foreign exchange as gambling but yes it has some of the aspect of gambling and one thing which i see as nearly similar to gambling is foreign exchange speculation part, all speculators are guessing and predicting the market based on some indicators or even worse GUTS. -
Since in foreign exchange the risk is exist and also bigger than any other kind you've ever seen so far then risk management is needed here, for the sake of focus. You can control the risk and reduce much of your risk and also not just that but also to reduce the chance of you to lose your money, but in the end that is a matter of practice at first.
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@radex78: I don't know also where that six months coming from but i think that is from common experience for traders who become an expert in foreign exchange trading now. I think that is right as long as you keep trading at least 3 times in a week but if you trade just once in a month that would be useless too. It would be good if you could trade everyday during that 6 months frame.
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I don't know for the possibility but one thing that i am sure about this that you will be able to control emotions and trade better, also emotions which hinder you would be a smaller issue. Back to the topic, the low spread broker has nothing to do with emotions but low cost broker means that you can reap more profit while spend less for spreads.
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After the fall of Poundsterling's quick monumental, other key-exchange could be dragged. Team of Credit Suisse made possible scenario downfall of EUR / USD. Credit Suisse has long worried about the tension between the United Kingdom versus the EU could become a big problem in 2017. Especially if they highlight a split within the other members of the European Union which will go into the general election With the GBP suffered severe blow for divorce in France and Germany in the coming year. EUR can not deny its failure to maintain a previous "marriage". Italian referendum which will take place on December 4th is another key factor to consider, with the latest poll results show sound "No" is leading. Besides, the problem of European banks such as Bank Deutch kept peeking.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia commodity exchanges on Thursday was observed to fall. A weaker CPO prices this afternoon triggered weakening of crude oil in the Asian trading session. Crude oil prices fell on Thursday (13/10) in Asian session, pressured OPEC to increase production and an increase in US crude inventories. The decline in crude oil prices to trigger negative sentiment that makes the price of CPO in the downward trend. The weakening in crude oil prices make alternative fuels such as those made of CPO declined his request. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems weakening and fell by 9 ringgit or 0.34 percent and traded at 2,644 ringgit per tonne. Analyst estimates that the price movement of CPO futures at the next trade will pay attention to the movement of crude oil prices, which if it continues to weaken will push the price of CPO. Price movements can also be affected by Ringgit movements and the global supply and demand conditions of CPO. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in December 2016 Malaysia has the potential to test the support level at 2,590 ringgit and if able to break that line will went down towards 2,540 ringgit. While resistance to be tested if there was a strengthening is at 2,690 ringgit and 2,740 ringgit.
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The price of tin in Malaysia bourse stabilized on Thursday. Stable prices with mixed with Wall Street and investors digested the release of Fed minutes in September. Stocks ended mixed in late morning trading Thursday. The Dow Jones closed up 0.09 percent, at 18,144.20, with the highest increase in stock Nike. The S & P 500 closed up 0.11 percent, at 2,139.17, with the real estate sector led the eight sectors higher. The Nasdaq composite index closed down 0.15 percent, at 5,239.02. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting September Open Market Committee (FOMC) revealed that members generally agreed that the chance of a rate hike has been strengthened. But there is no specific reference to the interest rate hike at a special meeting and the overall tone slightly more dovish than expected. With some decline is still happening in the labor market and inflation continued to run down the target of the Committee, a majority of members considered that at this time the FOMC must await further evidence of progress toward the goal of maximum employment and 2% inflation before raising interest rates. The price of tin in Malaysia observed stable commodity exchanges today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19,880 dollars per ton, the same as the previous closing on weekends at 19,880. Tin price movements at the next trade has potential to strengthening against weak US dollar. Price will face support level at 19,700 dollars and 19,500 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 20,100 dollars and 20,300 dollars.
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Japanese yen exchange rate movements move weaker in early trade Asian session (13/10) while continued the previous trading pressure managed to bounce back the opponent after US dollars stressful when FOMC minutes September months ago. The extra power makes Yen to rise by safe-haven trading securities, reappeared after Chinese government report their foreign trade performance in September. China reported exports and imports conditions they feared to fall deeply below expectations so as to make them trade surplus was trimmed to the lowest surplus position in the last 6 months. Yen exchange rate movements on EU session strengthened against the US dollar, USDJPY's price opened lower at 104.19 in early trading also was down 23 pips and value pair is rolling at 103.96. For the movement of this pair until the end America session could further decrease if unemployment claims data depress US dollar, so the analyst estimates the price may be further dropped to the range of 103.50 to 102.31 if the positive movement of the pair did not reach the range of 104,70-105.10.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Entering the Asia session US Dollars take back the strong position to doinate the market with compelling fundamentals after the release of FOMC minutes last night. The dollar rose to its highest level in seven months against all major rivals after three straight days of strong rally. Minutes of the FOMC meeting in September showed a strong signal of certainty Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the near future despite the many decision makers in a meeting last month expect US economy improved signal first. After this treatise appeared increasingly optimistic about the market this year will be the Fed's plan to tighten its monetary policy. To this day the fundamental driving force of the country there will be weekly unemployment claims data is expected to show the data that is worse than the previous week period. But there is also the country's import data are expected to show improvement and provides an overview of rising US inflation rate period in September. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading stronger move after the start of trading on Asian session where the price opened higher at 97.96 and is now moving at 98.07 and possibly to the higher level . Already strong previous trading up 0.2% against all major rivals. -
Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Entering the European trading session on Thursday (13/10), Australian exchange rate that has experienced profit-taking since the beginning of trading increasingly fall after the end of the Asian session where the poor performance of China announce their foreign trade in September. The Chinese government reported the condition of the domestic exports and imports fell short of expectations thus making their monthly trade syrplus was trimmed. Exports plummeted reported very severe compared to the decline in imports. Australian dollar exchange rate movements on European session moves very weak and about to fall to its lowest in 18 trading days against US dollar, after opening lower at 0.7563, the Australian dollar exchange rate is the value of this pair is rolling at 0.7515. For the next session which is American Trading till the end of this session it has potential to rise higher because of the previous factor. It estimated that AUDUSD pair will continue to fall into the range of 0.7501-0.7468. But if it is not then it maybe climbed back towards the range of 0.7554-0.7581. -
Crude oil prices fell on Thursday in the Asian session, pressured OPEC to increase production and an increase in US crude inventories. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 54 cents, or 1.08 percent, at $ 49.64 per barrel. Brent traded at $ 51.37 a barrel fall around 44 cents, or 0.85 percent, from the previous close. Traders said the oil market under pressure after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported a rise in production, although the producer group have a plan, in cooperation with non-OPEC producer Russia to cut production in an effort to control global oversupply. OPEC on Wednesday reported oil production rose in September to the highest level in at least eight years and raised its forecast for 2017 non-OPEC supply growth, pointing to a greater surplus next year despite the agreement of the group to cut production. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API), a trade group, reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories rose 2.7 million barrels to 470.9 million barrels in the week to October 7 this will be the first increase in oil inventories after five consecutive weeks of declines. A stronger dollar makes it more expensive for countries that use other currencies in the country to import oil is traded in dollars, potentially depress demand. Tonight will be released weekly crude inventory data by the US EIA, which indicated increased. If realized, it will make the Oil price fall once again. Analyst estimates that crude oil prices further potentially weak by global glut concerns after reports of increases in OPEC production and API reports to the increase in US inventories. Also if tonight realized EIA report for the increase in weekly US crude inventories, will further depress Oil prices. Crude oil prices are expected to move in the range of $ 49,10- $ 48.60 which are suppport, and if the price rises will move in the range of $ 50,10- $ 50.60 which are resistance.
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At the end of trading on Thursday morning , Rotterdam coal price rise pushed the increase in Chinese coal imports. China's coal imports surged 15 percent during the first nine months of this year, the local mines were forced to close, uninterrupted supply and steel mill to boost production. Surprising turnaround Chinese imports have helped drive up the price of coking coal over the past three months, while the thermal coal used in power plants, rose more than 50 percent this year. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for October 2016 gained 65 dollars or equivalent to 2.30 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be released weekly crude oil inventory data indicated the US is increasing. If realized, it will push the price of oil, so coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade will weaken if oil prices weaken realized. The price of coal futures could potentially test support at 72.85 dollars and 72.35 dollars. While resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 73.85 dollars and 74.35 dollars.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Natural rubber prices on Tocom futures this Thursday afternoon ended down. Weakening Tocom rubber prices triggered a strong yen and weakening crude oil. Japanese Yen strengthened observed fell around 0.32 percent at 103.88. The increase in the exchange rate of the Japanese yen makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for overseas buyers. The impact demand for these commodities declined. The weakening in crude oil prices make synthetic rubber production costs become cheaper. The impact demand for commodities like natural rubber is traded on Tocom decreased. In afternoon trading, the price of rubber futures for the most active contract on the Tokyo commodity exchange is a contract in March 2017 ended lower by 1.06 percent to 177.8 yen per kilogram. Analyst estimates that the price movement Tocom rubber futures at the next trade is potentially affected by the natural pressure of the potential for strengthening the Japanese yen and weakening crude oil. and has the chance to test the support level at 173.00 yen and 168.00 yen. Prices will meet resistance at 183.00 and 188.00 yen if the price reverses to the positive territory -
The price of sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York early on Thursday (13/10) ended sharply lower triggered by the strengthening US dollar. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities sugar becomes more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 observed decline. The price of sugar futures have closed the most active dipped by -0.14 cents or equal to -0.60 percent at 23.15 cents per pound. Sugar futures price in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar. It also has potential to test the support level at 22.65 cents and 22.15 cents. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 23.65 cents and 24.15 cents per pound.
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The price movement of gold in Asian session (01:10:35 GMT) moves lower after the price opened lower at 1256.25 in early trading Asia session, and is now the rolling price for XAUUSD is at 1254.85. Gold prices on Asia session gain profit taking after earlier the market do bargain hunting after gold prices fell to five-month lows. Market optimistic about the Fed rate hike plan so doing action overnight and during the day is expected to be more depressed. Technically XAUUSD is moving down to the range of 1251.57-1242.44, but if it does not penetrate these ranges and correction prices will rise towards the range of 1258.77- 1260.90. And if it breaks the support then it will come down again. So the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1138.62 and resistance level at 1266.94
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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Thursday morning (13/10) closed weak. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered the strengthening US dollar. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose after the minutes of the Fed meeting strengthens the possibility of higher US interest rates in December A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract was observed to be closed down. The commodity price closed down by 0.83 percent at 2,643 dollars per ton. Analyst estimates that the price of cocoa futures for the next trade will move in a limited tendency to weaken the potential strengthening of US dollar For the next trading price of cocoa futures has the potential to penetrate the support level at 2,590 dollars. If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,540 dollars. While the level of resistance that will penetrate if there was a strengthening there at 2,690 dollars and 2,740 dollars.
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Arabica coffee prices rose in late trading Thursday morning (13/10), triggered a fall in exports of coffee in Brazil and Guatemala. The Brazilian Exporters Association Cecafé has announced that due to ongoing strike the country's coffee exports from Santos was unable to cite customs export data for September, but it is thought that the green coffee exports for the month were 24.4% lower than the same month last year, with a total of 2.2 million bags. The National Coffee Association of Guatemala has also reported that the country's coffee exports for the month of September some 48 116 bags or 26.52% lower than the same month last year, in a total of 133 349 bags. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning has strengthened. Arabica coffee futures prices in December 2016 rose by 1.30 dollars or equivalent to 0.86 percent and closed at 1.5210 dollars per pound, this commodity potentially weak with the potential strengthening of US dollar. While support at 1.4900 dollars and 1.4600 dollars plus the resistance that will be encountered if there was a strengthening there is at 1.5500 dollars and 1.5800 dollars.
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Euro exchange rate movements in Asian session is moving strongly against US dollar, after the price of this pair opened lower at 1.1107 in early trading and the EURUSD is now rolling at 1.1016. Euro Asian session trying to rebound strong although there is no strong moving data that will provide a strong sentiment, the data was only final data expected German PPI alike. Technical rebound experienced by the euro early in the session by bargain hunting pair that has been mired in three consecutive days. Observed euro was corrected back to respond to strong fundamentals US dollars. EURUSD is moving down towards the range between 1.0996-1.0954, however if there is a correction may rise towards the range of 1.1044-1.1080. So EURUSD normal range is estimated to have support at 1.0921 and resistance at 1.1110
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Oil prices fell in trading Tuesday on profit-taking pressured on Asian session, but remained near the highs of the year, triggered the strengthening expectations of production cuts by OPEC producers, and traders said the price outlook remains bullish as confidence in the market of crude oil rose. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $ 51.28 a barrel, down 7 cents, or 14 percent of the final closure, but also near the site of Monday's $ 51.60 a barrel high. International benchmark price of Brent crude oil traded at $ 53.07 a barrel, down 7 cents, or 13 percent from the previous close, not far from the position Monday at $ 53.73 per barrel high. Oil prices jumped as much as 3 percent on Monday, with Brent crude hitting a one-year high, after Russia said it was ready to join the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in controlling the production of crude oil. Germany Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank said that "expectations of OPEC production cuts definitely played a role" in the latest price increase of the futures market, where a large volume of new long positions have been built as the market becomes more confident about rising oil prices. But caution still audible tone in the market. Fritsch said he had "significant doubts whether the target reduction in production will be completely fulfilled" as competition among OPEC members, who fought aggressively for market share globally, could prevent an effective agreement. Analyst estimates that crude oil prices could potentially further weakened by profit-taking after prices rose higher and the strengthening US dollar. But if the freezing of optimism sentiment strengthened OPEC production will raise the price back. Crude oil prices are expected to move in the range between $ 50,80- $ 50.30, and if the price rises will move in the range between $ 51,80- $ 52.30.
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Arabica coffee prices on ICE rose in late trading Tuesday morning (11/10), triggered by strengthening of the Brazilian currency, Real. At the close of trading yesterday the Brazilian Real currency strengthened against the US dollar. USDBRL ending down 0.47 percent at 3.2033. The strengthening of the Brazilian Real is the bullish sentiment for commodity prices denominated in US dollar, making exports less attractive in the local currency. Brazil is the world's top producer of coffee. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning has strengthened and rose by 4.85 dollars or equivalent to 3.28 percent and closed at 1.5285 dollars per pound. Price of arabica coffee futures for subsequent trade potentially weak with the potential strengthening of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York may test support at 1.5000 dollars and 1.4700 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if there was a strengthening is at 1.5600 dollars and 1.5900 dollars.
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The price of sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York Tuesday morning (11/10) ended sharply lower triggered by the strengthening US dollar. The US dollar rose to its highest in more than two months against a basket of currencies after a drop in US jobless claims reinforced the view that the Fed will raise interest rates later this year. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities sugar becomes more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 observed decline. The price closed the most active dipped by 0.29 cents at 23.13 cents per pound. Analyst estimates that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar and has the potential to test the support level at 22.60 cents and 22.10 cents. While resistance level which will be tested if decline is at 23.60 cents and 24.10 cents per pound.
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