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myregister
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At the end of trading Tuesday morning (25/10), Rotterdam coal price rises driven decline in Chinese supplies. The domestic price of coking coal, an important raw material for the steel sector, will continue to increase due to supply shortage, so the expert said as quoted by the Global Times, Monday (24/10). Coal mines in the country, except those that have safety requirements that are specific, can only produce at least 276 days a year, limits which aims to cut coal production and maintain the development of the coal industry, according to a statement posted on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission on March. Previously, the coal mine could produce 330 days per year. In the first nine months of 2016, China's production of coking coal sector down 1.6 percent at 331.74 million tonnes, according to data released by the NBS on 19 October. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for November 2016 is at 83.55 dollars per ton. Commodity prices gained 1.55 dollars or equivalent to 1.89 percent compared to the previous closing. Coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially strengthened by the decline in coal supply. However, it should be observed profit-taking take advantage of a surge in coal prices. The price of coal futures could potentially test resistance level at 84.00 dollars. While support that will be tested if prices decline is at 83.00 dollars.
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Cocoa futures on ICE futures at the end of trading on Tuesday morning closed weak. Weakening prices triggered an increase cocoa production in Ivory Coast. Rain mixed with the sun in most of the main growing areas of cocoa in Ivory Coast will help generate more of the major crops more than a year ago, according to the farmer. The main crop harvesting and marketing of the October-to-March is underway in the world's main cocoa producer. Cocoa beans are dried up in the villages and the increasing number of cars that transport them out of the countryside. There are already enough cocoa beans in the trees to ensure a good harvest until December, said the farmer. Weather in the next few weeks will determine how the harvest in January and February. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts was observed to be closed down. The commodity price closed lower by 0.73 percent at 2,705 dollars per ton. Analyst estimates that the price of cocoa futures for the next trade will move in a limited tendency to strengthen the weakening US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures New York has the potential to penetrate resistance level at 2,750 dollars. If the resistance level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,800 dollars.
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The price movement of gold in the Asian session (05:50:35 GMT / 12:50 GMT) moves stronger than expecatation after the price opened higher at 1264.65 in early trading, the gold price is now rolling at 1267.65. Gold prices in the end of Asian session had gained beyond the negative sentiment that suppress both the strengthening US dollar and the stock market. Gold is much sought-induced demand for physical gold China's rise and also curtailed the production of steel and copper by the Chinese government. Technically, gold prices attempted to climb towards the strong resistance at 1275.35. But if it is not up to that resistance then gold price will fall down towards the range of 1261.90 - 1253.21. So the normal range for XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1246.88 and resistance level at 1280.97.
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Crude oil prices slumped on Tuesday (25/10) in the Asian session due to disagreement within OPEC producers on who should cut how much the planned production cuts to shore up prices. Futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 7 cents, or 0.14 percent, to $ 50.45 per barrel. While the price of International benchmark Brent crude oil traded at $ 51.33 a barrel, down 13 cents, or 0.25 percent of their final closure. Iraqi Oil Minister Ali al-Jabar Luaibi said the second largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would like to exempt from the reduction of production because it requires more money to fight militants of the Islamic State. Until there is more clarity about the planned cuts, which OPEC hopes to cooperate with non-members such as Russia, analysts said oil prices are likely to remain range-bound, but stable around current levels. American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish weekly forecast crude stocks on Tuesday, followed by official data the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Price of crude oil at the next trade may drop with no certainty of a deal freezing OPEC production. But if the production cuts appear optimistic sentiment, will strengthen the price. The price is expected to move within the range between $ 50.00 - $ 49.50, whereas if the price rises will move in the range between $ 51,00- $ 51.50.
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Tin's future price in Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Tuesday afternoon (25/10). The increase in the price of tin supported strengthening the positive sentiment on Wall Street. US stocks closed higher at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (25/10) report positive earnings news supported issuers and increased manufacturing growth, but gains were restrained strengthening US dollar and falling oil prices. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 20,100 dollars per tonne, up by 50 dollars, or 0.25 percent from its previous close at 20 050. Tonight will be released house price data in August and CB Consumer Confidence is expected to decline in October. If realized could weaken the US dollar Malaysian tin price movement in trading the potential to strengthen further limited by the weaker US dollar. Price will face the resistance level at around 20,300 dollars and 20,500 dollars. But if there is a decrease, the price of tin will face a support level at 19,900 dollars and 19,700 dollars.
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Japanese yen weakened since early trading last week (24/10) back under pressure against the US dollar amid a lack of strong fundamental driver of sentiment to trade US session tonight from the country. The pressure on these currencies are still ongoing as the fundamental strength of US dollar by sentiment Fed rate hike. Safe-haven yen is very difficult to rebound and positive move today because majority of Asian stock markets and also Europe show a green signal, which shows the strength of investment in risky assets and reduce the interest on Yen. But in the evening session, USDJPY pair can only be corrected if the economic data released weaken US dollar, which is CB index of consumer sentiment for the US Treasury. Yen exchange rate movements on the European session (10:35:35 GMT) weakened against the US dollar, after the price of USDJPY opened higher at 104.17 in early trading and now moving up about 40 pips and value pair rolling at 104.57. For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session of trade can only continue to rise, so it could be estimated that USDJPY pair subsequently rose to around 104.65 to 104.90. But if there is a technical correction then this pair could be corrected down to the range between 104,07-103.69.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Australian dollar gained strength in early trading last week (24/10) continues it to European session , although the US dollar is strengthening against several of its main rivals. The sentiment that drove this afternoon AUDUSD pair obtained from the rising price of iron ore impact of rising crude oil prices and the strengthening yuan exchange rate stable against the dollar in the forex market. Domestic prices of key commodities such as iron ore rose significantly which received support from the rebound in crude oil prices after earlier trading statement depressed attitude of Iraq will be the OPEC decision to cut crude production. Australian dollar exchange rate movements on European session (09:50:45 GMT) moving strongly against the US dollar, after the price opened higher at 0.7612 in early Asian trade, the Australian dollar exchange rate is now rolling at 0.7640. For the next session until the end of New York session next morning analyst estimates pair AUDUSD climbed steadily into the range of 0.7650-0.7687. However, if not managed to achieve this range then the price will be corrected back down to the range of 0.7587-0.7551. -
CPO price in Malaysia commodity exchanges Tuesday afternoon (25/10) observed weak. A drop of CPO prices this afternoon triggered by strengthening Ringgit exchange rate against the US dollar and weaker crude oil prices. Strengthening Ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for overseas buyers so demand decreases. Crude oil prices also slumped due to disagreement within OPEC producers on who should cut how much the planned production cuts to shore up prices. The decline in crude oil prices to trigger negative sentiment that makes the price of CPO in the downward trend. CPO price most active contract today seems weakening as ringgit weakened 1.8 percent and traded at 2,772 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures at the next trade may decline with the potential for strengthening ringgit and weaker crude oil. The price movement can also be influenced by global supply and demand conditions It has the potential to test support level at 2,720 ringgit.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
In the middle of the European session forex trading on Tuesday US dollar speeding began to cut back little by little to respond to the strong sentiment of supporting its main rival. The power of dollars trying trimmed by the power of Euro and Commodities exchange sentiment , On the other hand seemed dollar remained strong against rivals such as pound, yen, and dollar swissfranc. At the beginning of the European session, Euro traded lower on the previous trading amid strong economic data to maintain EURUSD rate which re-trimmed entering Asian session today. That pair rose again after the German Ifo business sentiment report and news of the approval of the disbursement of the Greek bailout. Until the American trading session this evening, the strength of the US dollar is feared getting cut off by the negative sentiment of the release consumer sentiment data were surveyed and reported by the Conference Board (CB). The data is expected to show a decrease in sentiment score from the previous period. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading stronger move after the start of trading on Asian session opened higher at 98.61 and is now this index price is moving towards 98.82 after touching 98.67 highs. -
The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Tuesday morning (25/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported arabica coffee production deficit forecasts. Dealers said the estimated shortfall for arabica coffee help to increase the price. International Coffee Organization has raised its forecast for the 2015/16 crop, mostly reflecting higher production in Colombia, but still see a global deficit for this season. Arabica coffee prices for the most-active contract closed up in December 2016 in the position of 1.5790 dollars, up by 1.80 cents, equivalent to 1.15 per Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures at the next trade limited as the potential to strengthen of weakening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.6100 dollar.
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The price of sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York Tuesday morning (25/10) ended up triggered short covering. The price of ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday as short-covering and technical buying after a sell-off last week, market participants are not sure about the certainty of the price even further. At the close of trading early this morning, Sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 was observed to increase. The price of sugar futures closed up the most active surged by 0.49 cents, or equivalent to 2.16 percent at 23.20 cents per pound. Tonight will be released house price data in August and CB Consumer Confidence is expected to decline in October. If realized could weaken the US dollar Price movements of raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade limited the potential to strengthen the weakening US dollar and has the potential to test the resistance level at 23.70 cents. While support that will be tested if prices decline is at 22.20 cents per pound.
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After the Ifo Institute for Economic Research to announce the latest business conditions German state of their survey of the many businesses in all sectors, the euro exchange rate in the middle of the European session forex trading on Tuesday rebounding from selling pressure for 5 consecutive days. In addition to a report showing German Ifo index in October increased significantly above expectations, the euro's strength against the US dollar also gained on news consent partial melting of Greek bailout funds in order to pay its debts. Euro exchange rate movement on EU session strengthened against US Dollar, after EURUSD's pair price opened actually lower than previous trading at 1.0881 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate observed a natural increase about 6-7 pips and now the price is rolling at 1.0887. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, analyst estimates that technically EURUSD pair will go up to the range between 1.0903 - 1.0936. However, if the correction occurs again then EURUSD's pair price will fall to the range between 1.0863-1.0820.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber price in midday trading Tuesday observed to rise. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely in March 2017 triggered by stronger currency weakening Yen. USDJPY currency pair traded higher by 0.20 percent at 104.29. A weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract, rose 1.6 percent at 181.40 yen per kilogram. Tocom rubber price movements in the next trading session today still appreciate the weakening yen. For the next trading price is expected to meet resistance level at 186.00 yen. No further resistance at 191.00 yen. Meanwhile if the price fall lower then will find support at 176.00 yen and 171.00 yen. -
The price of sugar futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the weekend early Saturday (21/10) ended up triggered an increase in Chinese imports. China imported 500,000 tons of sugar in September, the highest since December and more than what analysts expected in the world's top buyer showed on Friday. At the close of trading early on Saturday was the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 was observed to increase. The price of sugar futures the most active closed up 0.09 cents, or equivalent to 0.40 percent at 22.71 cents per pound. In the weekly price of sugar fell 0.87 percent, the majority of depressed strengthening US dollar and increased production of India. Raw sugar futures according to the analyst in New York at the next trade will weaken the US dollar strengthening. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the support level at 22.20 cents and then towards 21.70 cents. While resistance level to be tested if there is increment for this pair is at 23.20 cents and 23.70 cents per pound.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements in the Asian session to strengthen against the US dollar, after the price opened higher around 0.7610 in early trading, the price of Aussie observed to rise about 5 pips and the current value of this pair obseved to be rolling at 0.7615. Australian against US Dollar managed to rebound after there was strong pressure after two consecutive days where Australian dollar obtained power from the rebound value of China's yuan currency who had previously participated pressing AUDUSD at last week's trading. Aussie rebounded amid lack of strong fundamental data driver of this pair. Technically AUDUSD continued to ascend up to around the range between 0.7624-0.7670, but if it does not penetrate these ranges and correction down then the pair slid to 0.7585-0.7540. So the normal range of AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7510 and the resistance level at 0.7698. -
Euro exchange rate movements on Asian session observed is weakening against the US dollar after the price opening is opened lower at 1.0883 in early trading (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate is now rolling on the position of 1.0867. Euro on Asian session moving weaker against the US dollar continued the previous trading sentiment triggered strong Fed rate hike pushed the US dollar and also the ECB's stance last week that did not give any signal to plan the next QE program. But in the European session there are a lot of positive sentiment to lift the EURUSD pair. Technically, EURUSD potential to rise to the range of 1.0891-1.0923 if attenuation pair is not reached, it will fall and break the range of 1.0850-1.0810. The normal range on the EURUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.0768 and the resistance level at 1.0981.
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Japanese yen exchange rate movements had a strong move at the end of trading last week amid strengthening US dollar, sign in Asian trade on Monday (24/10) retreat by profit taking. The yen was unable to continue strengthening over the weekend despite the positive sentiment came from the release of Japanese economic data this morning. Japanese economic data such as the data of trade balance which fell from the previous month period but above expectations, besides the data flash manufacturing PMI which showed an increase in both the data from the previous period are also expected. Yen exchange rate movements on the Asian session (03:45:35 GMT) weakened against the US dollar, USDJPY opened higher at 103.85 in early trading (0000 GMT) moves up around 9 pips and this pair value is rolling at 103.94. For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session of trade can only continue to rise, so the analyst estimates USDJPY pair subsequently rose to around 104.10 to 104.43. But if there is a technical correction then this pair can be corrected towards the range between 103,77-103.43.
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Pound exchange rate movements towards the end of the Asian session moves negatively and affect the movement agains US dollar after the price of this pair opened lower than previous trading at 1.2222 in early trading (0000 GMT), the pound exchange rate is now falling down around 21 pips and the pair is rolling at 1.2201. Entering the earling trading last week in this October, Pound is still not able to rebound although it is fundamentally has minor positive sentiment in the European session. The strong sentiment Fed rate hike is still dominating the market so that Great Britain Pound exchange rate is expected to return under pressure. Technically GBPUSD will go down again towards the strong support and a break-up down to the weak support at 1.2060. But if there is a correction, the pair may rise to strong resistance range. So the normal range for GBPUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.2060 and the resistance level at 1.2331.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements in European session (07:30:35 GMT / 14.30) strengthened against US dollar, after the price opened higher at 0.7628 in early trading (0000 GMT), the Aussie exchange rate rose about 18 pips and rolling value for this papir is at 0, 7646. Aussie based on Asian session could proceed earlier by profit-taking pressure due to the poor employment data Australia in September. But entering the European session the price of this pair rebound back by bargain hunting after the previous rally in three consecutive days, which get power from the strengthening of iron ore prices significantly. Technically AUDUSD will rise to the range between 0.7654-0.7707, but if it does not penetrate these ranges and correction may put the price down towards 0.7615-0.7557. So the normal range of AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7508 and the resistance level at 0.7747. -
At the end of trading Friday morning (21/10), Rotterdam ended weaker coal prices depressed crude oil prices tumbled. Crude oil prices fell more than 2 percent in late morning trade on Friday (21/10), depressed profit taking and a stronger dollar. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in November 2016 slipped in position 80.20 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by -0.40 dollars, equivalent to -0.50 percent compared to the previous closing. It estimated that Coal Futures price movement on Rotterdam exchange on the next session will potentially weak and triggered by the strengthening US dollar after ECB keep interest rates fixed. It also potentially test support level at 79.70 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 81.20 dollars.
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The attitude of ECB that do not discuss ongoing QE program or stimulus to the economy of the region at their monthly meeting on Thursday (20/10) disappoint market for the expectations of euro rate. As a result, the exchange rate value of the region plummet down positions 7-month low against the US dollar. Previous market is expecting Mario Draghi as ECB governor announced the development of central bank stimulus program that will end in March 2017. The market wants what the economic outlook in the region next after seeing strong pressure occurs this year. Euro rate exchange on Europe Union session seems weakened against the US dollar, after EURUSD on this time opened higher than the previous trading at 1.0928 in early Asian trade , also the Euro exchange rate experienced a decrease about around 38 pips and is now rolling at 1.0890. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, the price of EURUSD estimated to be technically fall down to around the range between 1.0874 - 1.0812. But if there is a correction, then this currency pair will have a strong rise towards the range between 1.0935-1.1007.
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Japanese yen exchange rate movements that move weaker in early trade on Asian session (20/10) continue weakening lines earlier trading, rose again in the early European trading session bersamaa with news of an earthquake with a large enough scale in western Japan. Previous weakening yen continues to respond to speech before parliament Kuroda stated inflation target will be trimmed. The Japan Meteorological Agency announced there was an earthquake of 6.6 on the Richter scale shook western Japan on Friday (21/10) afternoon at a depth of 10 kilometers, but did not trigger a tsunami. While the United States Geological Survey (USGS) detected an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.2 SR at eight kilometers south of Kurayoshi-Japan. The preaching of this earthquake made the market a little panicked and memburuy safe haven. Yen exchange rate movements on European session (09:15:35 GMT) strengthened against the US dollar, USDJPY price in this chart seems to opened higher at 103.95 in early trading and right in this EU session fall down to about 18 pips and the rolling value of this pair is at 103.77. For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session trading USDJPY may continue to fall, so the estimateion for USDJPY may be further dropped to the between 103.62 to 103.03. But if there is a technical correction and strengthening of the pair reached the range between 104,22-104.63.
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Entering European Session this weekend, the pound was a positive move, but trimmed back to continue trading weaker track two days earlier after the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) report data conditions PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) tidakj as expected. ONS report the number of British government borrowing from the public sector in September bigger than expected decline in the data from the previous period. If this data is greater than expected, the pound will weaken the exchange rate, as well as vice-versa. Pound exchange rate movements in the European session (09:00:35 GMT) weakened against the US dollar, after the price of this pair opened lower than the previous trading at 1.2255 in early trading Asian session (0000 GMT), the exchange rate pound fell about 25 pips and the pair is rolling are at 1.2230. For the next trade until the close of New York/America session tomorrow morning, analyst estimates that GBPUSD pair will continue to fall to the range between 1.2209 - 1.2141. But if there is a correction, technically GBPUSD will climb back to the range between 1.2274-1.2325.
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Price of cocoa futures on ICE in late trade on Friday morning (21/10) closed weak. Weakening prices triggered cocoa grinding results in Asia session that do not support stronger prices. Overnight, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that the grinding Asia climbed 12.5% in the third quarter from the same period last year to 167 737 metric tons. But the news was not enough to boost prices, with Europe and North America are the two largest areas that consume cocoa. Milling refers to the volume of cocoa beans processed into butter and powder used to make chocolate and is often used as an indicator for chocolate demand. The market will await a grinding cocoa third quarter for North America. Traders expected an increase of 2-3 per cent, with the data set to be released today. At the end of trading early this morning Cocoa's price was observed to be closed down. The commodity price closed lower at -7 dollars, or 0,26 percent at 2,717 dollars per ton. Cocoa futures for the next trade will move in the trend of limited gain if the result of increased realized North American mills. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2,770 . If the resistance level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,820 dollars. While the level of support that will penetrate if there is a decline is at 2670 dollars and 2620 dollars.
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The price of Tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange fell in trading Friday (17/10). Falling prices depressed the strengthening US dollar. The US dollar index hit a seven-month high against a basket of currencies and a three-month peak against the euro after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. Strengthening of the US dollar makes commodities traded tin denominated in US dollars to be expensive, so demand decreases. The price of tin in Malaysia observed commodity exchanges declined today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19,900 dollars per ton, down $ 100 dollars or 0.5 percent from its previous close at 20,000. Analyst estimates that Tin price movements at the next trade is potentially weak if US dollar continue to strengthen. Price will face the support level at 19,700 dollars and 19,500 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 20,100 dollars and 20,300 dollars.
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