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myregister
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After the European markets opened trading on Thursday , some economic data released for Euro area member states with a majority of positive value. However, these data are not able to withstand the profit taking that pressing EURUSD since the end of the Asian session. The market viewed the report the unemployment rate is less impressive than the same data as the previous period. Indeed, Eurostat reports today showed the unemployment rate Euro area is still the same, but some countries are still showing the increase of unemployment as Spain which data is larger than the previous month. Euro exchange rate movements (11:00:38 GMT) weakened against the US dollar, after opening lower than the previous trading at 1.1096 in early Asian trade (0000 GMT), the Euro exchange rate experienced a decrease 24 pips and is now rolling at 1.1075. For the next trade until the close of trading in America which ends tomorrow morning, analyst saw EURUSD pair technically being dropped to the range 1.1066 - 1.0995. But if there is a correction again in the evening session, the pair may rise towards 1.1127-1.1155 range
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British pound which had rallied for four consecutive days, back in the rally entered the Asian session on Thursday (3/11) receiving sentiment monetary policy BOE which will be announced tonight. But in the middle of the European trading session sped by the UK High Court decision. The high court announced the relic United Kingdom of the European Union should be decided by the country's parliament. So any process-by-process implementation Brexit first discussed in parliament before the government execution. This news weakened the sentiment hard brexit happened by the attitude of Prime Minister Theresa May who has been pressing the pound. Pound exchange rate movements in the European session observed to strengthened against the US dollar, after this pair's price opened lower than the previous trading in the position of 1.2302 in early trading Asian session (0000 GMT), the exchange rate pound rose around about 14 pips and the pair is still in a position 1.2416. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, analyst estimated GBPUSD will go up again to the range 1.2455 - 1.2481.
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The movement of USDJPY at the European session (07:55:35 GMT) moving weak after this pair's opening lower in early trading at 103.30 (00.00 GMT), and now the pair are currently located at the position of 68.89. Before the pair had already reached his strong support. Japan yen exchange rate on European session still continued the rally by safe haven trading sentiment weighing the United States political conditions. Japan market today off so there is no catalyst activator and throughout the day following global sentiment. USDJPY technical basis is expected to be down to the range of 98.58-102.13, and if this pair didn't reach the range ready to reverse back to the range of strong resistant at 103.76. So the normal range of USDJPY today is expected to have support at 101.43 and resistant level at 104.85
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
In the end of session (2/11) a few hours ago, US dollar is still depressed and move the red zone to fall to the lowest position in three weeks against all its major rivals. But trimming the U.S. dollar's strength began to wane after the Fed Announces its latest monetary policy. Indeed in the policy the Fed won't change interest rates now and remains in the range of 0.25%-0.50%, but few give the signal for the meeting next month they will consider longer to raise rates. Before the Fed announcement, release data job back incriminating U.S. dollar with lower data shows well against the previous period as well as by expectations. And the condition of US dollar alone have got pressure from the uncertainty of the election in the country so that the global market is more interest in the safe haven assets such as the yen Japan, Switzerland franc and gold. The dollar index which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against six major currencies closed trade shrank to 97.38, after previous trade Asian session opened at the position of 97.73 -
At the end of trading Thursday morning (11/2), Rotterdam coal prices ended weak by depressed crude oil prices. The price of crude oil fell almost 3 percent in late trade Thursday on Wednesday (03/11) after U.S. Government reported an increase in weekly us inventories hit record highs on global supply concerns increase satiety. Prices are little changed after the U.S. Federal Reserve maintain the policy interest rates unchanged. With the weakening crude oil prices, the price of coal futures contract for Rotterdam's most active contract declined at 84.10 dollars per tonne. The commodity price decreased by 1.15 dollar or equivalent 1.35 per cent compared to the previous closing trade positions. Analyst estimated that the price movements of futures Rotterdam coal on the next trade potentially rise triggered a weakening of the U.S. dollar after The US Fed keep interest rates constant. It also could potentially test support level at 83.60 dollars and 83.10 dollars.
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Cocoa futures prices on ICE Futures in late trading Thursday on Wednesday (03/11) closed up. Strengthening of cocoa prices triggered by weakening U.S. dollar. Dollar index slipping after U.S. Fed maintain interest rates unchanged. The weakening of US dollar made commodities cocoa based cheaper in other currencies. At the end of the trading day price of cocoa futures contract last December 2016 which is observed most active contract closed with registered an increase. The commodity prices closed rose by 13 percent in dollar or 0.48 position 2,709 dollars per tonne. Analysts estimate Cocoa futures to trade the next potentially strengthened by the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the potential to penetrate the Resistance level at 2,750 dollars. If the Resistance level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,800 dollar.
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The price of sugar futures commodity exchange ICE Futures New York Thursday early morning (03/11) ending rise triggered the estimated increase in imports of sugar. Analysts say the support price of sugar derived from a more bullish forecasts for the image of sugar production 2016/2017. Czarnikow trading companies said they estimate the demand for sweeteners for going beyond the request of 9.8 million tons and that for intensifying the production of sugar, needs prices persist above 20 cents per pound in the long term. At the close of trading in the early hours last price of sugar futures contract for the most active contract, namely March 2017 observed increase. The price of sugar is the most active futures closed up soaring about 0.51 cents or equivalent 2.41 percent at position 21.70 cents per pound.
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Arabica coffee futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures New York at the close of trade Thursday early morning (03/11) ended up. Rising prices of arabica coffee supported a weakening of the U.S. Dollar. Dollar index slipping after U.S. Fed maintain interest rates unchanged. The weakening of the U.S. dollar makes the price of arabica coffee sold in US dollar currency becoming cheaper, so demand is rising. Arabica coffee futures price for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at position 1.6290 dollar, and now it seems the price rose by 1.45 cents or equivalent of 0.90 percent. The data will be released later this evening which is ISM Non Manufacturing PMI October indicated weakening. If unrealized will depress U.S. dollar. Analyst estimated that the price movement of Arabica coffee futures on the ICE Futures New York on the next trade potentially rise with the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Arabica coffee potentially test resistance level at 1.6600 dollars and 1.6900 dollars. While the support level which will be tested if price rise are at 1.6000 dollars and 1.5700 dollars.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The price of natural rubber futures trading Thursday afternoon on the Tocom (03/11) ended down. Tocom rubber price weakening by a strengthening Yen. Yen strengthened after The U.S. Fed's decision maintain interest rates unchanged so as to weaken U.S. dollar. USDJPY weakened about 0.5 percent at 102.82. The rise in the exchange rate of the yen makes Natural Ruber prices traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for buyers abroad. The impact of these commodities demand will decline. In trading today, the price of rubber futures ended down by-5.1 yen or-2.8 percent, becoming 178.0 yen per kilogram. Analyst estimated that the price movements of futures trade on the Tocom rubber session next potentially weakened with the potential strengthening of Yen. Tocom rubber will test Support at 173.00 and 168.00 yen. The price will meet Resistance at level 183.00 and 188.00 yen if the price were in positive territory. -
The Tin price on Malaysia bourse seems fall down on Thursday. The Tin price decline depressed Wall Street exchanges and weakening Europe overnight. U.S. stock exchanges closed lower in late trading Thursday on Wednesday (03/11) after the Federal Reserve maintain interest rates unchanged, while worries about U.S. presidential election still weighs on investor sentiment. The price of Tin in Malaysia bourse ended up declining commodity these days. This industrial metal prices traded at 20,750 dollars per tonne, falling down by 50 dollar or 0.2 percent from the previous closing on 20,800. The data will be released later this evening the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI October indicated weakening. If unrealized will depress the U.S. dollar. Analyst estimated that Malaysia Tin price movement on the trade would move up if the U.S. dollar weakened unrealized. Price will face the resistance at 20,950 and 21,150 dollar. But if there is a downturn, the price of Tin will face the Support level at 20,550 and 20,350 dollar.
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The price movement of gold in the European session (06:45:35 GMT) is still in a bullish position after the price opened lower in early Asia trading session at 1296.80 per ounce, and is now rolling XAUUSD riding on 1301.95. The gold price is still high European session trade continued the rally two days earlier caused the safe haven trading sentiment post political conditions in the country for the United States presidential election to be held next week. But the rise in gold prices is limited by the signal of the Fed's rate hike in December. Technically, XAUUSD are moving down to the range of support between 1295.78-1276.60, but if it does not penetrate the range would rise back towards the range 1307.09-1311.85. So the normal pair XAUUSD range on the day is expected to have support at 1268.60 and resistant level at 1321.66.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia commodity exchange in trading Thursday afternoon (3/11) observed weak. The drop in the price of CPO this afternoon triggered rise of Ringgit against the U.S. dollar. The observed exchange rate pair of u.s. dollar-Ringgit, down about 0.2% at 4.1775. The strengthening Ringgit triggered by a weakening of U.S. dollar after The Fed retain U.S. interest rates unchanged. The strengthening of Ringgit has made the price of commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers and so the demand is dropping. The price of CPO most active contract today looks experience attenuation. Contract price January 2017 which is the most active contract slumped as big as 8 ringgit or-0.3 percent and traded at position 2,750 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures on the next potential trade down with the potential strengthening of the Ringgit. But the positive movement of crude oil prices may help increase the price of CPO today. CPO futures contracts can potentially test the support level at 2,650 2,700. While Resistance level to be tested in case there is a rise is at 2,800 ringgit and 2,850 ringgit.
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The price of crude oil futures rose on Thursday, with attacks against Nigeria's oil pipeline and a weakening u.s. dollar support sentiment in the market, lifting the price of the lowest position five weekends. U.S. crude oil futures price rose 0.44 percent, at $45.54 a barrel. The price of crude oil futures traded Brent rose 28 cents, or 0.60 percent, at $47.14 per barrel. The price of crude oil was supported by concerns about supply disruptions after militants in the Niger Delta's oil Center, South Nigeria attacked a pipeline operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Wednesday. The dollar slipped to third session as positioning for next week's us presidential election overshadowed the latest reviews of the Federal Reserve, where policymakers hinted they were on track to raise the tribe next month. Both the benchmark oil, Wednesday, reaching the lowest level since the end of September after data showed U.S. crude oil inventories surged more than 14 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly increase since the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory records began in 1982. Analystestimated crude oil price on the next trade is moving positively with the weakening of U.S. dollar after the Fed maintains interest rates unchanged. The price is estimated to be moving in the range of resistance between $46.00-$ 46.50, whereas if prices fall will move in a range of support between $45.00-$ 44.50
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US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 25 cents, or 0.53 percent, to $ 47.11 per barrel. WTI tumbled nearly 4 percent to $ 46.86 per barrel in the previous session. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery, the new front-month contract, rose 37 cents, or 0.76 percent, at $ 48.90 per barrel. Previous front-month contract fell nearly 3 percent before the end of Monday's trading. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monday approved a document outlining the long-term strategy which means a return to the role of managing the market and become more proactive in anticipating market changes. But the gains are limited because the market is burdened by further indications of doubt the success of this OPEC meeting by the increasing production of some OPEC countries. Oil prices have risen by 13 percent since OPEC announced on September 27, production cuts to support prices after a decline that began in mid 2014. The group said the division of the number of cutting members will be finalized at a meeting later this month. Price of crude oil at the next trade after the deal is a positive move. However, it should be observed that if the movement of the US dollar continues to strengthen could depress prices. The price is expected to move within the range of $ 46.60 - $ 46.10, whereas if the price rises will move in the range of $ 47,60- $ 48.10.
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British pound exchange rate that could retreat on Asian session by profit taking after the market rallied for two days straight, going back and trying to continue its rally. Pound receive power from the news statement Bank of England governor (BOE) Mark Carney. Last week was widely reported that Mark Carney will resign from his post as governor of the Bank of England in 2018 after Brexit, and this is very worrying financial situation British market that would leave the EU. But Carney who served as Governor of the BOE since 2013 replaces the previous official Mervyn King, announced his resignation in 2019. The strengthening Pound in the European session this afternoon overshadowed by the negative sentiment of the release of United Kingdom PMI manufacturing data in October, lower than the previous period, so the potential to retreat back. Moreover, during the American session there is a strong sentiment that lifted the US dollar higher. Pound exchange rate movements seem strengthened against the US dollar, after the price of this pair opened higher than the previous trading at 1.2246 in early trading of Asian session (0000 GMT), the exchange rate pound was rise about 5 pips and the pair still in position 1.2251. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, GBPUSD will go down again to the range 1.2196 - 1.2093.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Natural rubber prices Tocom on Tuesday afternoon (31/10) ended down. Weakening Tocom rubber price affected by the overnight decline in crude oil prices, which in October with oil prices tumbled 4 percent. The weakening in crude oil prices make synthetic rubber production costs become cheaper. The impact demand for commodities like natural rubber is traded on Tocom decreased. However, further weakening retained after this afternoon crude oil prices rebounded in Asian session, as well as the Shanghai stock exchange recorded a positive result after Chinese manufacturing growth rose in October. Rubber futures for the most active contract on the Tokyo commodity exchange is a contract ending in April 2017 decreased by 0.2 percent, to 183.1 yen per kilogram. Tocom rubber futures trading next session potentially strengthened by the potential increase in crude oil also need to be observed Yen movements that can affect the price of rubber. -
At the end of trading, Rotterdam coal prices rose after a coal mine accident in China that prompted concern the decline in production. Fifteen miners have been confirmed dead after an explosion rocked a coal mine in Chongqing, southwest China. The explosion occurred on the morning of October 31 in which 35 miners were working underground at the Coal Mine Jinshangou. China has had a spate of mining accidents including one in March of this year when 20 workers were killed in an explosion in Shanxi province, central China. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal but has announced plans to shut down more than 1,000 mines obsolete. Rotterdam futures contract for November 2016 rise towards 84.35 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened by 2.00 dollars or equivalent to 2.43 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be released ISM Manufacturing PMI and Markit Manufacturing PMI in October, which indicated increased. If realized the potential to strengthen the US dollar. Coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially strengthened by the decline in coal supply. However, it should be observed profit-taking take advantage of a surge in coal prices. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 84.85 dollars and 85.35 dollars.
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CPO's price on Malaysia commodity exchange observed weak. A Drop in CPO prices this afternoon triggered strong exchange of Ringgit against US dollar. US dollar-ringgit pair observed fall down about -0.33% at 4.1807. Strengthening Ringgit makes CPO becoming relatively more expensive for overseas buyers so demand decreases. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems weakened. The contract price in January 2017 which is the most active contract fell by -31 ringgit or minus 1.1 percent and traded at 2,732 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures at the next trade may decline with the potential for strengthening ringgit. But the positive trend in crude oil prices can help the CPO price increase today. CPO futures contract on commodity exchanges for the January 2017 contract has the potential to test the support level at 2,680 ringgit and 2,630 ringgit. While the level of resistance to be tested if there is an increase is exactly at 2,780 ringgit and 2,830 ringgit.
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Sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York Tuesday morning (01/11) ended weak action triggered speculators cut long positions bullish. The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators once again cut their bullish bets on sugar, decreased the size of their long-term net position. News production on Brazil failed to stop the decline in prices. Analysts had been anticipating the sugar production in the first half of October reached 2.3 million tons in the center-south region of Brazil, which produces 90% of the sugarcane country. Brazil is the world's largest producer of raw sugar. Brazilian industry group Unica said the center-south mills crush 32 million metric tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 11.9% from the same period the previous year. At the close of trading early this morning, Sugar futures for the most active contract dipped by -0.59 cents or equal to -2.66 percent at 21.57 cents per pound. Sugar futures in New York at the next trade will weaken the US dollar strengthening. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the support level at 21.10 cents and the break 20.60 cents.
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Gold price movements on European session (07:00:35 GMT / 14:00 GMT) moves stronger against US Dollar after price opened lower at 1277.15 in early trading (0000 GMT), the gold price is now rolling at 1279.30. Pressures on US dollars when entering the European session forex trading by some positive sentiment rivals made a strong gold price to resume the previous trading trend. The pressure comes from the sentiment FBI investigation against Hillary Clinton. Technically, the gold price will rise towards the range of 1281,80-1285.33, but if there is a correction then it will fall towards the range of 1275.06-1272.94. The normal range for XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1261.68 and resistance level at 1287.55.
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Tin's price on Malaysia Stock Exchange rose this afternoon. The increase in the price of tin supported by growth of Chinese manufacturing. Activity in China's manufacturing sector grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in October, adding to the view that the second largest economy in the world is stable thanks to a surge in construction. Official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 51.2 in October, compared with 50.4 the previous month and above the 50-point line that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 20.650 dollars per ton, up $ 100 dollars or 0.5 percent from its previous close at 20 550. Analyst estimates that Malaysian tin price movements at the next trade will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. Price will face suport level at around 20,450 dollars and 20 250 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 20,850 dollars and 21 050 dollars.
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The movement of USDJPY pair on European session is stronger than expected where the price actually opened higher at 104.83 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 104.91. Price also has been break the strong resistance. Yen entering the European session still can not breathe after two straight days of distress, BOJ attitude to trim inflation target for the long-term negative sentiment for Yen. This currency was also hit by a strong European stock market trading. And at the evening session, US economic data has the potential to elevate US dollar. Technically, USDJPY may rise towards 105.10-105.51 and if the pair breaks then it may rise towards the range of 105.60-105.89. But if it does not reach this range then the pair will drop to the range of 104.54-104.05. So USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 103.49 and the resistance level at 105.88.
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Gold price movements of the European session (06:50:35 GMT / 13:50 GMT) to move weaker after the price opened higher at 1277.65 in early trading (0000 GMT), the gold price is now rolling at 1275.25. This week the US central bank will conduct an important meeting for market participants as well as a strong signal to expectations of a rate hike by year end. This signal is automatically lifted the US dollar. Technically, the gold price will fall towards the range betweeb 1273,30-1263.33 and a break below towards 1254.41. But if it is not broken, the price of gold will rise again towards 1280.42-1290.08. So analyst argued that the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1246.98 and resistance level at 1300.49.
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The movement of USDJPY pair on European session is stronger after the price of this pair opened lower at 104.45 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 104.94. The yen trimmed its strength entering the European session responds sentiment Fed rate hikes are stronger by this week's FOMC meeting. Moreover depressed economic datas early in the session as well as industry data and retail data Japan. Until the evening session USDJPY's price is expected to continue rising if the economic data exceeded expectations the evening session. Technically, USDJPY is moving up towards strong resitance and if the pair breaks continued up to the range of 105.00-103.80. But if it does not reach this range then the pair will drop to the bottom of the range 105.48-104.15. So the normal range of USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 103.06 and the resistance level at 106.18.
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Cocoa futures on ICE Futures trading late weekend early Saturday (31/10) closed under bullish sentiment. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered by the weakening US dollar. With this a weakening US dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa becomes cheaper in other currencies. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in December 2016 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 24 dollars, or 0.88 percent at 2,756 dollars per ton. ICE cocoa prices on a weekly basis is still positive, up 1.14 percent, supported the weakening US dollar and bargain hunting investors. Tonight will be released the data Personal Income and Personal Spending US September indicated increased. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Price of cocoa futures for the next trade will weaken by US dollar strengthening. For the next trading it has the potential to penetrate the support level at 2,710 dollar and if support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,660 dollars.