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myregister
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The price of sugar futures ends slump depressed by the strengthening US dollar. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities sugar becomes more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 observed decline. The price of sugar futures have closed around -0.17 cents or equal to -0.86 percent at 19.58 cents per pound. The US markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday to commemorate Thanksgiving Day. So Raw Sugar estimated to have limited weakening movement since there is potential strengthening of the US dollar. It has the potential to test the support level at 19.00 cents and 18.50 cents.
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Euro exchange rate movements on Asian session (03:00:35 GMT) moving weak against the US dollar, after this pair's price opened lower at 1.0551 in early trading (0000 GMT), and the EURUSD is now rolling at 1.0535. Euro is strong enough to make itself plunged to a 1-year lows against the US dollar. Sentiment political uncertainty in some countries in the region will hold elections and a Fed rate hike further depress the EURUSD pair. In the European session there is a positive sentiment to trim attenuation pair by German Ifo Data busniness Climate and German GDP. Technically, EURUSD is moving down towards the range between 1.0509-1.0454. But if it is not up to the range described above, then this pair may rise towards 1.0574-1.0652 range. So EURUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.0415 and the resistance level at 1.0712.
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The price movement of gold on Asian session (03:40:35 GMT) is still in a weak position after opening lower at 1187.37 in early trading Asia (0000 GMT), and is now riding on a rolling XAUUSD 1185.79. The price of gold trading on Asian session again depressed by the strong expectations of Fed rate hike, which lifted the US dollar. Solid US economic data released last few days added to the belief that sentiment. Although the US exchange holiday but sentiment Fed rate hike is still a focus of global markets. Technically XAUUSD will drop to the range of 1181.64-1177.37, but if it does not penetrate the range can go up to the range of 1191.04-1201.29. So the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1160.44 and resistance level at 1230.75.
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Profit-taking pressure after the pair GBPUSD managed to defeat American dollar trading session on Wednesday (23/11) began to cut entering the European session on Thursday (24/11) by his off the US market today. Additionally pounds of data expected minor BBA Mortgage Aproval provides strong power to continue strengthening the previous trading. Pounds gained in the previous trading when other major rivals weakened US dollar, triggered by reports financial officer of British rule before parliament about the projected monetary and fiscal conditions of the country in Autumn Forecast Statement. In the report mentioned cuts GDP target 2016 to 2019 and plan to increase fiscal stimulus and also the country's infrastructure sector post Brexit. GBPUSD capable of moving to respond to the report by market expectations that a positive stimulus for the UK economy faced problems that occurred after Brexit. Pound exchange rate movements on European session weakened against the US dollar, after opening lower than the previous trading at 1.2441 in early trading Asian session. Analyst see the pair GBPUSD rising to the range between 1.2443-1.2469, and a break-up to the range 1.2512 - 1,257.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Australian Dollar exchange rate movements in the Asian session (04:25:35 GMT) moving weak against the US dollar, after this price's pair opened lower at 0.7384 in early trading (0000 GMT), and is now rolling at 0.7375 AUDUSD. Aussie on asian session trading under increasing pressure from weakening further even if there is positive sentiment that seeks to lift AUDUSD pair. Namely rising commodity prices such as leading copper and iron ore. But sentiment Fed rate hike continued to weigh on the pace of this pair. Technically, the AUDUSD is moving down towards the range between 0.7350-0.7305, but if it does not reach these ranges may rise towards 0.7398-0.7443 range. So AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7279 and the resistance level at 0.7480. -
After Japan's stock opened on Thanksgiving Day holiday on Wednesday (23/11), at the beginning Asian session, flash data released manufacturing PMI business performance of the country for the period November that increase the performance is bad for the yen against major rivals. Observed since such data, not only the yen weakened against the US dollar also against the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. Data Markit manufacturing PMI reports showed a decrease score slightly from the previous month period as well as market expectations. After the release of the data flash manufacturing, the USDJPY pair managed to rise to its highest level in eight months and until the evening session feared they would rally. For the movement of this pair until the end of the evening session trading has the potential to rally more even higher. So it estimated that UADJPY may rise to the rnage between 113.65 to 113.98 and to higher price if able to break 113.98.
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The price of CPO rose on Monday afternoon (21/11). CPO price hike this afternoon supported by the weakening ringgit and rising crude oil prices on Asian session. Ringgit observed weakened against US Dollar, USDMYR this day rise about 0.3% at 4.4315. The weakening ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so that demand is increasing. CPO price most active contract seems to have increased. Contract prices in February 2017 which is the most active contract rose about 50 ringgit, or 1.7 percent and traded at 2,919 ringgit per tonne. The price movement of CPO futures at the next trade potentially strengthened by the potential weakening ringgit and the increase in crude oil. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in January 2017 Malaysia has the potential to test the resistance level at 2,970 ringgit and 3,020 ringgit.
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Oil prices rose about 1 percent on Monday's Asian session trading (21/11) supported by optimism of OPEC production cuts to rein in excess supply that has made the low price for more than two years. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1.18 percent, or 54 cents, at $ 46.23 per barrel. Meanwhile, theCrude oil futures prices International benchmark Brent traded at $ 47.48 a barrel, up 62 cents, or 1.32 percent. Traders said the market was supported by the planned production cuts Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in an effort to prop up the market after more than two years of low prices as a result of production exceeding demand. Optimism supported deal closer after Iran who want to increase production once the international sanctions lifted last January, is expected to be granted an exception if the restriction of production and not the cuts approved, giving the responsibility of the decline directly to other OPEC members, including political rivals and the leader of OPEC's de facto Arab Arabia. Japan, the fourth-largest oil consumer in the world, on Monday reported a 9.5 percent decline in crude oil imports in October from the same month a year earlier, to 2.78 million barrels per day. Crude oil prices will be influenced by sentiment plan OPEC production cuts are planned to be realized within 30th November meeting. If the optimistic sentiment continued to strengthen will raise the price and vice versa. Price is expected to move in the range of $ 46.70 - $ 47.20, whereas if the drops will move in the range of $ 45,70- $ 45.20 .
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading the weekend early on Friday (17/11) ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices again depressed by the strengthening of the US dollar. The US dollar was on track for the best two weeks since 1988 against the yen and reached its highest since early 2003 against a basket of currencies, as Trump victory sparked talk of tax cuts and new investment in infrastructure to boost the US economy. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down at 1.6210 dollars. Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures has potential to test support at 1.5900 dollars and then towards 1.5600 dollars.
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Cocoa futures on ICE Futures trading late weekend early Saturday (19/11) closed up. New York cocoa futures prices consolidated after slumping to its lowest level in more than three years on Thursday weighed by increased crop prospects in West Africa which reinforced expectations there will be a global surplus in 2016/17. At the end of trading early this morning Cocoa futures contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 6 dollars or 0.25 percent at 2,425 dollars per ton. ICE cocoa prices on a weekly basis fell 1.86 percent, largely depressed strengthening US dollar and the estimated global production surplus 2016/17. Cocoa futures potentially weakening further limited by the potential strengthening of the US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures New York would may break the support level at 2,375 dollars. If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,325 dollars.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Aussie exchange rate movements seems weakened against the US dollar, considering that after the price opened at lower level or around 0.7330 in early trading (0000 GMT), the exchange rate fell 19 pips and rolling value is at 0,7328. Australian Dollar on Asia session seems remained pressured by the weak commodity price since Australia's leading iron ore and coal that would affect the currency a lot. Pressure also comes from the strong fundamentals that reduce the rate of the US dollar AUDUSD pair subsequently. Technically, AUDUSD will fall down towards 0.7308-0.7310 but if there is correction price will rise to towards 0.7423-0.7478. So it could be argued that the normal range for AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7223 and the resistance level at 0.7441. -
In late trading the weekend early Saturday (19/11), Rotterdam coal prices ended down eroded by the strengthening US dollar. The increase in the US dollar makes the price of US dollar denominated coal Rotterdam to be expensive so the demand is getting stronger. Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in December 2016 dropped to around 79.65 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by -0.75 dollars, equivalent to -0.93 percent compared to the previous closing. Meanwhile, the weekly coal prices continue to fall -10.86 percent, largely eroded by the strengthening US dollar and falling crude oil prices. Analyst estimates that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. It has potential to test support level at 79.15 dollars and 78.65 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 80.15 dollars and 80.65 dollars.
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Euro exchange rate movements on Asian session (01:15:15 GMT / 8:15 pm) is moving with positive sentiment towards US dollar after the price opened lower at 1.0592 in early trading (0000 GMT), and the Euro exchange rate is now rolling on the position of 1.0610. Euro on Asian session rebound after being hit for 10 consecutive trading day against the US dollar by sentiment. Rebound may take longer due to quiet the catalyst driving the forex market today until the American session later. Late last week the EURUSD receive negative sentiment data eased and account current Mario Draghi statement. Technically, EURUSD rise towards 1.0627-1.0670 . But if failed to reach between the range the this pair may fall towards the range of 1.0570-1.0516. Analyst argued that the normal range of EURUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.0471 and the resistance level at 1.0704.
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The movement of USDJPY pair on Asian session is strengthening after this pair make a strong opening at 110.95 in early trading , and now this pair still have a good sentiment and keep moving at around 111.00. Japanese Yen based on Asian session seems depressed again by foreign trade balance report which showing Japan exports lowered and the surplus to fall in the period October compared to the previous period. But Yen could move if there is fundamental support, in addition to the US session there is no data to support the movement of the US dollar. Technically, the USDJPY is moving up towards 111.37-111.66, but if failed to break 111,37 then this pair may fall towards the range between 110.48 to 109.14. So USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 108.82 and the resistance level at 111.70.
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Pound exchange rate movements on Asia session still move negatively against US Dollar after the price opened lower at around 1.2345 in early trading (0000 GMT), the pound exchange rate is now fall about 1 pips and the pair is rolling at 1.2344. Pound on Asia session is still depressed continuing pressures that plagued GBPUSD for 5 consecutive days. Rebound made possible due to quiet the catalyst driving the dollar currency pair GBPUSD pressing last week quite strong. Last weekend the pair receives the negative sentiment of the statement is dovish BOE Deputy Governor. Technically GBPUSD seems fall to the range between 1.2308-1.2345 and if the pair breaks it then will fall further to around 1.2221. And if there is a correction between the range described above, pair may rise to the range between 1.2378-1.2438. So GBPUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.2274 and the resistance level at 1.2221.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices on the trading session Monday afternoon (21/11) ends soared. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely April 2017 helped strengthen weaker yen and rising crude oil prices. A weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Tocom rubber price increases also supported the rise of crude oil in the Asian trading session. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract, on April 2017 increased by 14.6 yen or 7.0 percent at 224.10 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing at 209.50 yen per kilogram. Analyst estimates that Tocom rubber price on the next trading day may still appreciate since Yen is getting weaker and the rising crude oil support it. For the next trading session price is expected to meet the level of resistance at 229.00 yen . and if able to break it the price will rise to further resistance at 234.00 yen. Meanwhile if the price suddenly change its stance then it will fall to the support at 219.00 yen and 214.00 yen. -
The price of Tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Monday afternoon (21/11). The increase in the price of tin ignore the sharp rise in the US dollar. Tin price increases triggered by bargain hunting after the price of tin fell sharply. In the last week the price of tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange plummeted -6.9 percent, largely pressured by the strengthening US dollar policy of US President elect Donald Trump which is expected to trigger inflation, the statement of Janet Yellen also hawkish to rise interest rates soon in the month December. The drop in the price of tin is used by investors to buy commodities as tin while at low prices. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 20,400 dollars per ton, up $ 300 dollars or 1.5 percent from its previous close at 20,100. Tin price movements at the next trade will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. Price will face support level at 20,200 dollars and then next if able to fall further at 20,000 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 20,600 dollars and 20,800 dollars.
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The price of sugar futures on ICE Futures exchange in late New York trading the weekend early Saturday (19/11) ends slump depressed by the strengthening US dollar. The US dollar was on track for the best two weeks since 1988 against the yen and reached its highest since early 2003 against a basket of currencies, as Trump victory sparked talk of tax cuts and new investment in infrastructure to boost the US economy. At the close of trading early on Saturday Sugar futures for the most active contract is March 2017 observed a decline. The price of sugar futures have closed by -0.07 cents or equal to -0.35 percent at 20.15 cents per pound. For the weekly one, the price of sugar fell -7.14 percent, largely depressed strengthening US dollar and increased supply in Brazil. Raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade will weaken limited to the potential strengthening of the US dollar. It has the potential to fall down up to aorund the support level at 19.65 cents and then towards 19.15 cents.
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Gold price movements on Asian session still strenghtehing against US Dollar after the price move higher at around 1206.27 in early trading (0000 GMT), now the price of gold is still rolling at 1212.26. Gold prices rebounded strongly after the Asian session earlier this commodity fell down for around three consecutive days take a foothold on the weakening US dollar by profit taking after the market reached its highest level in 14 years. Technically, gold prices attempted to climb towards the range between 1215.37-1220. But if it is failed then Gold itself will fall back towards the range 1203.56-1197.38. So XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1191.33 and resistance level at 1225.15.
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At the end of trading Friday morning (18/11), Rotterdam ended weaker coal prices depressed the drop in crude oil prices and the strengthening US dollar. Crude oil prices fell in late trade on Friday morning (18/11), with expectations OPEC agreement to limit the production is still pressured by fears of oversupply and the strengthening US dollar. Likewise, the strengthening US dollar also weighed on prices of Rotterdam Coal. US dollar on Thursday rose to a new high of 13.5 years against a basket of major currencies after the statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a group of six currencies, was last up 0.46 percent at 100.87. With the weakening of crude oil prices and the strengthening US dollar, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract slipped in position 80.40 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by -1.60 dollars, equivalent to -1.95 percent compared to the previous closing. Analyst estimates that coal futures price movements at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 79.90 dollars and 79.40 dollars.
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Crude oil prices fell in Asian trade Friday afternoon (18/11) stressed the strengthening US dollar beat expectations OPEC production cut deal. Crude oil futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 27 cents at $ 45.15 per barrel. While the price of Brent fell 20 cents, or 0.43 percent, at 46.29 per barrel. Strengthening of the US dollar makes oil, which is priced in dollars, more expensive for buyers in other currencies. "Commodities were mixed, with a stronger dollar makes pressure for the sector. Brent crude was trading around $ 46 per barrel as investors saw opportunities increase by OPEC will reach an agreement on production cuts, "said the Australian bank ANZ said in a note. Optimistic comments the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia Khalid Al-Falih on OPEC crude oil production cuts ahead of a meeting of the officials of the major oil exporters are scheduled to take place between 0530 GMT and 0730 GMT on Friday. Representatives of the oil exporter Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Russia, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Venezuela, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Nigeria, met in the Qatari capital Doha to discuss the details of a potential deal to reduce production. Despite hopes for a deal, the increased production of Iran to doubt whether OPEC will be able to cut a deal in world oil glut constantly. Iran overtake Saudi Arabia as a major oil supplier India for the first time in October, sending the data showed. Analyst estimates that crude oil prices could potentially fall by concerns of oversupply and the strengthening US dollar. But if optimism continues to increase OPEC production cuts, can strengthen oil prices. The price is expected to move within the range Support $ 44.65 - $ 44.15, whereas if the ride will move in the range of $ 45,65- $ 46.15 Resistance.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Australian Dollar exchange rate movements on Asian session (02:00:15 GMT / 09.00) weakened against the US dollar, after this pair opened higher at 0.7408 in early trading (0000 GMT), the exchange rate fell about 19 pips and Aussie is rolling at 0,7389. Aussie on Asian session remained pressured by weakness in crude oil prices, depressing prices of Australia's leading commodities like copper and coal. Pressure is also getting stronger responding Janet Yelen statement before the US Congress overnight. Technically, AUDUSD will fall down to the range between 0.7372-0.7310 and if not then the pair expect a correction towards the 0.7423-0.7478 range.So the analyst suggests that the normal range for AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7308 and the resistance level at 0.7510. -
The price of CPO in Malaysia commodity exchanges in trading Friday afternoon (18/11) was observed to fall. A weaker CPO prices this afternoon triggered weakening of crude oil in the Asian trading session. The decline in crude oil prices to trigger negative sentiment that makes the price of CPO in the downward trend. The weakening in crude oil prices make alternative fuels such as those made of CPO declined his request. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to weaken and depreciated by 0.8 percent and traded at 2,852 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures at the next trade will pay attention to the movement of crude oil prices, which if it continues to weaken will push the price of CPO. Price movements can also be affected by currency movements Ringgit and the global supply and demand conditions. This commodity has the potential to test the support level at 2,800 ringgit and 2,750 ringgit.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (17/11) ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices again depressed the strengthening of the US dollar. The US dollar on Thursday rose to a new high of 13.5 years against a basket of major currencies after the statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a group of six currencies, was last up 0.46 percent at 100.87. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand which weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract month Marfet 2017 closed down towards 1.6295 dollars. Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar also has potential to test the support level between 1.6000 dollars and 1.5700 dollars.
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Cocoa futures in late trade on Friday morning (18/11) closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices encouraged bargain hunting after cocoa prices had touched a low of 3 years. Bargain hunting triggered by news that the outcome of cocoa beans in Ivory Coast still below expectations. Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produces most of the world cocoa, entering the main crop harvest, the larger of the two annual crop cycle. Purchase of Ghana cocoa beans have been strong so far, said Price Futures Group in Chicago, but the arrival of Ivory Coast cocoa beans so far below expectations. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in March 2017 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase. The commodity price closed up by 0.33 percent at 2,419 dollars per ton. Earlier, the price had fallen to a level of $ 2,358 per ton, the lowest intraday price for a most-active contract since August 6, 2013. Cocoa futures to trade potentially weakening further limited by the potential strengthening of the US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures would potentially penetrate support level at 2.370 dollar. If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,320 dollars.