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myregister
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Australian Dollar exchange rate movements on European session (07:25:35 GMT) was moving weak against the US dollar, after the price of this pair opened higher at 0.7414 in early trading, and AUDUSD is now rolling at 0.7408. Aussie weaken on European session as the impact for trying to cut that occurred some time after Asia markets opened. AUDUSD under pressure selling by commodity prices featured the country after the decline in crude oil prices. Positive sentiment data releases Australia's retail sales rose in November, exceeding expectations could not trim the weakening that occurs. It seems that generally AUDUSD would fall down to the range of 0.7396-0.7325, but if it does not reach that then it may rise towards 0.7433-0.7466. So the analyst suggests that the normal range for AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7326 and the resistance level at 0.7490. -
USDJPY pair movement on Europe session (07:00:27 GMT) moving flat after opening higher at 114.07 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is in the position of 114.08. Japanese yen exchange rate on Europe session began trimmed strength after Asian session trying to continue to rally from the previous trading. Sentiment release of US NFP data later in the evening gives strength to USDJPY on American session USDJPY. If the disappointing US NFP data, the pair may fall further. Technically USDJPY attempted to climb towards 114.35-114.84, and if the pair breaks 114.35 then it may touch around 115.00. But if it is not until this range, pair has the potential to go down again towards the range between 113.49-112.81. So the analyst suggests that USDJPY pair have the support level at 112.05 and the resistance level at 115.72.
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At the end of trading on Thursday morning (01/12), Rotterdam coal price rises driven surge in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices jumped 9 percent in late trading Thursday morning after OPEC, the group of countries in the world's largest oil producer agreed to curb oil production for the first time since 2008 in a final attempt to support prices. This commodity price actually traded at 85.60 dollars per ton. Commodity prices gained 0.85 dollars or equivalent to 1.00 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be released November ISM Manufacturing PMI . If these results are realized, will strengthen the US dollar, and Analyst estimates that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade will weaken stressed the strengthening US dollar.
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ICE sugar futures prices closed higher on late New York Thursday morning (01/12). Commodity prices gained after OPEC agreement to cut oil production thus pushing the price of crude oil soaring. Traders anticipate that higher oil prices will encourage producers prefer to convert sugarcane into ethanol than sugar cane, so the decline of sugar production and increase the price of sugar. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 to strengthen monitored. The price of sugar futures the most active closed up 0.15 cents, or equivalent to 0.76 percent at 19.81 cents per pound. Analyst estimates that the price of sugar futures to a subsequent trade may fall because the strengthening US dollar. Prices of raw sugar futures may test the support level at 19.30 cents and 18.80 cents. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is between 20.30 cents and 20.80 cents.
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Gold price movements on Asian session (02:45:35 GMT / 09:45 GMT) is stronger than expected after the price actually opened higher at 1173.64 in early trading, now the price of gold is still rolling at 1169.22. Gold price on Asian session has not been able to rebound after two straight days of distress, even though the US dollar this morning was naturally profit-taking and a retreat from strengthening 3 trading days. Stock market sentiment green indicating a high risk asset trading after surging crude prices make the market take off safe-haven assets such as gold. Technically, gold prices declined towards 1160.73-1154.26 range. But if it does not penetrate the price of gold can rise back towards the range 1179.52-1190.25. So the normal range for XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1142.58 and resistance level at 1207.28.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices on Thursday afternoon finished up. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely in May 2017 ended up helped by rising crude oil prices. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen in Asian trade on Thursday (01/12), after OPEC and Russia agreed to cut crude oil production to revive prices, but analysts warned prices could recede as other manufacturers stand to fill the gap. The increase in crude oil prices make synthetic rubber production cost becomes more expensive. The impact demand for commodities like natural rubber is traded on Tocom has increased significantly. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract observed to rise by 3.0 percent at 234.90 yen per kilogram. It seems that analystestimates that Tocom rubber price movement in trading the potential to strengthen further limited by the potential increase in crude oil. However, if oil prices weaken, it should be observed that a strong yen could depress prices. -
A strong rebound of EURUSD pair since the beginning of the Asian trading session on Thursday (1/12) continues until this evening ahead of the American session. Power euro also gained against several of its main rivals such as sterling and swissfranc gained from the release of the PMI manufacturing data increased beyond expectations. In addition to manufacturing data reported by the Markit PMI for the major countries as well as members of the Euro area, the euro exchange rate also grew stronger after the regional unemployment data released showed a decline in unemployment in November. For the next trade until the close of American session tomorrow morning, analyst viewed as technically EURUSD pair could continue to rise to the range 1.0660 - 1.0718. And if it is not until these ranges may fall back towards the range 1.0570 - 1.0503.
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The price of CPO on Malaysia observed commodity exchanges rose on Thursday afternoon. CPO price hike this afternoon supported by crude oil prices for the Asian session. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen in Asian trade on Thursday, after OPEC and Russia agreed to cut crude oil production to revive prices, but analysts warned prices could recede as other manufacturers stand to fill the gap. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to have increased. February contract price in 2017 which is the most active contract rose as much as 10 ringgit, or 0.3 percent and traded at 3,083 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in January 2017 Malaysia has the potential to test the resistance level at 3,130 ringgit and 3,180 ringgit. While the level of support that will be tested if prices decline is between 3,030 ringgit and 2,980 ringgit.
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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Thursday morning (01/12) closed weak. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered the strengthening US dollar. Increased ADP change on November helped US dollar rose half a percent against a basket of major currencies after last week touched its highest level for nearly 14 years. A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. So, at the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts observed to be closed down. Commodity prices closed down by 1.08 percent at 2,389 dollars per ton. Tonight will be released November ISM Manufacturing PMI US which indicated increased from the previous results. If these results are realized, will strengthen the US dollar, so analysts estimate that the price of cocoa futures for the next trade will move in a limited tendency to weaken the building of the US dollar.
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Pound exchange rate movements on Asia session is moving strongly against the US dollar after the price opened lower at 1.2506 in early trading (0000 GMT), the pound exchange rate is now down 8 pips and the pair is rolling at 1.2524. Pound enter Asia session and tried to continue the rally amid by strengthening US dollar against major rivals after receiving positive sentiment from a surge in crude oil prices reinforce risky assets such as GBPUSD. In addition hawkish statement Mark Carney on Wednesday (30/11) morning still provide power pair and also the release of the PMI manufacturing data in the European session. But watch out for correction entered American session due to positive sentiment that sustains the strong US dollar. If some data releases will reportedly exceed expectations then the pair feared correction.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
US dollar having a negative movement since Asia session on Thursday (1/12), is still comfortably in the red zone after earlier trading sentiment rebounded strongly by OPEC agreement crop production of crude oil and also the consolidation of the data of US employment in November. Dollar still is not moving because of the strong positive sentiment from many rivals such as the euro, sterling, and aussie swissfranc. Sentiment by Fed rate hike in December reinforced by solid US GDP data is prelim Q3-2016 and also the performance data of the domestic labor market, is still not able to fight some of the rival sentiment as data releases manufacturing and service PMI Europe. The majority of the data reported Markit manufacturing PMI for the euro zone countries show an increase in the data exceeded expectations except the UK who actually experienced a decline below expectations. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies on European trading session was moving at 101.26, after on Asia session opened at 101.56. If the data unemployment claims and US manufacturing data showed a significant increase in the data, the US dollar could rebound and outrank the market during the American session. -
Crude oil prices continue to strengthen on Asia session on Thursday (01/12), after OPEC and Russia agreed to cut crude oil production to revive prices, but analysts warned prices could recede as other manufacturers stand to fill the gap. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $ 0.60, or 1.21 percent, to $ 50.04 per barrel. Brent crude futures rose $ 0.67, or 1.3 percent, at $ 52.51 per barrel. At the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday (30/11) in Vienna Austria, OPEC President Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada of Qatar insists that the deal OPEC is reducing production of 1.2 million barrels per day. This will reduce total production to 32.5 million barrels per day, effective from January 2017. The deal also includes the group's first coordinated action by non-OPEC members Russia in 15 years. Analysts also said that the cuts would leave the field open for other manufacturers, especially the US shale drillers. Analysts think that crude oil prices for the next trade will rise after OPEC agreement limiting production. But if tonight the US dollar strengthened by increased US manufacturing data, will depress prices. Prices are expected to move in the range of $ 50,50- $ 51.00.
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Tin's price on Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Thursday afternoon (01/12). The increase in positive sentiment pushed by tin prices increased growth in Chinese manufacturing and services. China's official manufacturing PMI index rose about 51.7, compared to a Reuters poll of 51.0. The increasing growth of China's manufacturing and services provide expectations of increased demand from the country's largest consumer of basic horse's bit. The price of Tn on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 21,000 dollars per ton, an increase of 400 dollars or 1.9 percent from its previous close at 20,600. Tonight will be released November ISM Manufacturing PMI US which indicated increased from the previous results. If these results are realized, will strengthen US dollar. Analyst estimates that Malaysian tin price movements at the next trade will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. Price will face the support level at 20,900 dollars and 20,700 dollars. But if there is an increase, the price of tin will face resistance level at 21,200 dollars and 21,400 dollars.
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Momentum dollar weakness against many of Yen by profit taking after earlier trading market exhibited significantly strengthened enough data is supported by strong ADP employment change in November, the momentum for the Japanese yen rebounded after depressed during two consecutive days. However, during the American session, there are several US economic data as a powerful driver of potentially high lift the US dollar, such as the unemployment rate of data, construction data, PMI manufacturing data. The data is expected to show increasing data unless the data from the previous period unemployment rate is expected to fall. This data can support the NFP data due to be released Friday. For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session trading has the potential to go down, so the analyst estimates may be further USDJPY pair dropped again to the range 113.54 to 113.16. And if there is a correction, the pair could rise back towards the range 114.90-115.56.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (01/12) ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices again depressed the strengthening of the US dollar. Increased Data Adp Employment Change November helped the US dollar rose half a percent against a basket of major currencies after last week touched its highest level for nearly 14 years. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down at 1.5060 dollars, down by 1.60 percent. Analyst estimates that Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test the level of support in the position of 1.4700 dollars and 1.4400 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if price declien is between 1.5300 dollars and 1.5600 dollars.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The movement of AUDUSD pair who managed a strong rebound on Tokyo Session until the early European trading session, trimmed back burdened by the collapse in the price of iron ore is quite severe. Aussie strength previously obtained from the rally in crude oil prices and the consolidation of the release of Chinese manufacturing data on Asian session. The drop in the price of iron ore as Australia's leading commodity in the commodity market of European session weighed down LME Chinese government policies that restrict the import quota. China is Australia's largest consumer of a commodity, thus burdening trade restrictions on imports of the country. Iron ore prices in LME monitored tumbled 8 percent more than the previous trade. For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, many analysts estimate that AUDUSD pair may further fall down to the range of 0.7448-0.7398. But if there is a revision will rise towards 0.7502-0.7529 range. -
Gold price movements on Asian session is strengthening after the price opened higher at 1188.57 in early trading, now the price of gold is still rolling at 1191.76. This morning the price had managed to penetrate the strong resistance range. Gold prices rose back on Asian session after US Prelim GDP Q3-2016 data in earlier trading. The rise in gold prices this morning lifted by safe-haven trading as prudence market awaits the results of an OPEC meeting in Vienna-Austria which may affect the next trade. In the US session if the ADP data showed data that exceeded forecasts and could raise US dollars, the price of gold could fell back. Generally, gold prices attempted to rally towards 1196.40-1201.88 and if there was a break at 1201.88 then it will keep rise steadily to around 1200 - 1205.70. So the normal range XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1167.54 and resistance level at 1205.70.
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Gold price movements on Asian session is strengthening after the price opened higher at 1188.57 in early trading, now the price of gold is still rolling at 1191.76. This morning the price had managed to penetrate the strong resistance range. Gold prices rose back on Asian session after US Prelim GDP Q3-2016 data in earlier trading. The rise in gold prices this morning lifted by safe-haven trading as prudence market awaits the results of an OPEC meeting in Vienna-Austria which may affect the next trade. In the US session if the ADP data showed data that exceeded forecasts and could raise US dollars, the price of gold could fell back. Generally, gold prices attempted to rally towards 1196.40-1201.88 and if there was a break at 1201.88 then it will keep rise steadily to around 1200 - 1205.70. So the normal range XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1167.54 and resistance level at 1205.70.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Sentiment rising crude oil prices and drives strong for the Australian dollar exchange rate against all major rivals, AUDUSD pair was not able to lift the European trading session on Wednesday is being depressed since Asia session. Crude oil prices are being observed higher amid anticipation the results of an OPEC meeting in Vienna-Austria today. AUDUSD pair experienced selling pressure on sentiment Chinese trading conditions occur throughout the day. Weak consumer sentiment Westpac MNI reports this morning makes domestic stock markets and currency tumbled including commodity trading. Besides its superior commodity prices such as copper weakened and monitored the Chinese market to sell its iron ore futures market that plummeted. For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, Analyst estimates that AUDUSD seems will fall down to the range of 0.7448-0.7398. But if there is a revision will rise towards 0.7502-0.7529 range. -
The movement of USDJPY pair on Asian session is strong after the price of this pair opened higher at 112.39 in early trading, and now the pair is at 112.70. Considering that the pair able to break its resistance is better. Japanese Yen seems weakening on Asian session resumed trading earlier by the strengthening plan of Fed on interest rates in December, after data Q3-2016 US Prelim GDP showed an increase above expectations. And at the evening session USDJPY may strengthen if US ADP data showed positive data. It seems that USDJPY climbing towards 113.11-113.89 and a break between that will go to the range of 114.00-114.40. So analyst argued that the normal range for USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 109.73 and the resistance level at 114.38.
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ICE arabica coffee prices fell in late trading Wednesday morning (30/11), was triggered by surplus forecast coffee production. Coffee futures ended lower Tuesday after a major coffee trading company estimates that the coffee market this year will end up in surplus. Marex, estimates that the demand for robusta will exceed new supply of 5.6 million bags, with arabica coffee fill the gap. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices in March 2017 fell by 3.60 dollars, equivalent to 2.30 percent and closed at 1.5305 dollars per pound.Tonight will be released the data Adp US Employment Change November indicated increases. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Price of arabica coffee futures for subsequent trade potentially weak by the potential strengthening of the US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test support at 1.5000 dollars and 1.4700 dollars.
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Sterling exchange rate movements since the Asian session until the European session on Wednesday (30/11) still continue to face some consolidation affecting sentiment globally and also to index the currency of the UK. Some time after the London market opened as BOE Governor Mark Carney gives the same statement strees test reports of banking and monetary conditions report stability of the country reported today. For a report on bank stress test in the country, Mark Carney rate is still positive compared to expectations of poor post-Brexit. But the monetary side, the BOE post Brexit see credit conditions and declining private savings. Carney statements above a positive sentiment for the GBPUSD rate. But the momentum on US session to elevate dollars to a ballast for the rate of the GBPUSD pair. If the data were significant increases ADP employment change then the pair will hit. Pound exchange rate movements in the European session strengthened against the US dollar. Analyst see GBPUSD pair could continue to rise towards 1.2529-1.2569 range. But if it does not penetrate these ranges and correction can descend towards the range 1.2459- 1.2410.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
US dollar rebound since the Asian session trading Wednesday (30/11), is still able to maintain its position outrank some of its main rivals in the European session. On fears the global stock market pending the outcome of an OPEC meeting in Vienna-Austria for 2 days, sentiment Fed rate hike in December is still a reason to collect dollars. After three consecutive days experienced considerable selling pressure, the US dollar today trying hard to steal the attention of the market with ADP Employment Change data release in November in the evening session is the key NFP data release on Friday. Data previously released US Prelim Q3-2016 increased above expectations, but failed to captivate the market. This week's data releases prelim Q3 GDP and NFP United States in November expected to be a strong signal to enable the Fed to raise interest rates at their last regular meeting in December this year. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies European trading session was moving towards 101.09, after Asia session opened at 100.93. If ADP data showed a significant increase in the data, the US dollar may be strong to survive until the end of the session. This data is expected to show an increase were thin. -
At the end of trading on Wednesday morning (30/11), Rotterdam coal price closed up triggered by the weakening US dollar. The US dollar fell a third consecutive day against all major rivals despite the increase in the data prelim Q3 2016 US GDP above expectations. The weakening US dollar makes the price of coal sold rotterdam denominated in dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in December 2016 ended up in the position of 84.75 dollars per ton. The commodity price increased by 0.40 dollars or equivalent to 0.47 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be released the data Adp US Employment Change November indicated increases. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Rotterdam Coal futures price at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 84.25 dollars and 83.75 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 85.25 dollars and 85.75 dollars.
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Euro movements against the US dollar experiencing a consolidation on Asia session until the beginning of European session, moving in the red zone after earlier trading just slightly higher. EURUSD pair can not be lifted before this afternoon despite positive sentiment grew stronger after the release of some economic data area fairly encouraging. Encouraging economic data releases euro since the beginning of the European session as German retail sales jumped significantly, inflation data in France and Italy were closed with inflation estimation data November inflation data which rose in line with expectations. Opening price traded at 1.0650 in early trade. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, analyst viewed as technically EURUSD pair could fall back to the range 1.0600 - 1.0534 which is the today's support. And if it is not until these ranges can climb back towards the range 1.0674 - 1.0706.