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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
After a successful exit from the pressure with a leap of energy tepering ECB decision yesterday, the US dollar has the confidence to finish off this week's trading again dominated the forex market. And entered the Asian session on Friday (9/12) observed dollar strengthened against all its major counterparts. Previous trading day, US dollar managed to rebound in the evening session after Mario Draghi announced monetary policies did not change interest rates and extend their stimulus program until the end of 2017. Sentiment was automatically provides power for sentiment Fed rate hike next week, market confidence in the Fed's decision by the end of the year making the US dollar continues to be above the 100 range. But the pace of the US dollar is still overshadowed by the movement of crude oil prices could lift rates higher commodity. At the American session yesterday one of the commodities exchange Canadian dollar or loonie dollar managed to rebound by impulse strong rally in crude oil prices during trading yesterday (8/12). For further movement on this day, the US dollar is still able to rally with a Fed rate hike sentiment that helped release the plus Prelim UoM consumer sentiment data. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies traded at 101.25, after earlier trading opened at 101.06. -
Crude oil prices extended gains on Friday (09/12) on Asia session, supported by growing optimism that non-OPEC producers agreed to cut output due to the OPEC agreement to limit production. The price of US crude oil futures for January delivery rose 16 cents, or 0.31 percent, to $ 51.00 a barrel. Brent crude for February delivery was steady at $ 53.89 per barrel. OPEC has agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017, an agreement supporting crude oil futures despite doubts about whether the amount was sufficient and whether the cuts will be implemented effectively. Russia, which is not an OPEC member, has signaled it is ready to cut production by 300,000 barrels per day and on Thursday said it will come to Azerbaijan with a proposal for the reduction Vienna itself. Analysts estimated that crude oil prices will move higher if optimism ahead of a weekend OPEC meeting continues to increase. However, it should be observed that the strengthening of US dollar can pressure oil prices. Crude oil prices are expected to move in the range of $ 51.50 and $ 52.00.
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Consolidation movement of GBPUSD pounds since the Asian trading session, rebounded strongly enter the European session to respond to the estimated data release UK trade balance improved in October. However, after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced a significant decline of foreign trade deficit in the UK, GBPUSD rebounded stronger. Market attention on the evening session rests on the Prelim UoM consumer sentiment report which is expected to provide power for a US dollar rally consolidation moves against many of its main rivals. Pound exchange rate movements in the European session is still strong against the US dollar, after opening lower than the previous trading at 1.2586 in early trading Asian session. Analysts GBPUSD could continue to rise towards 1.2637-1.2706. And if it is failed then it may decline to 1.2548- 1.2510.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia observed weak commodity exchanges trading on Friday afternoon (09/12). The weakening in CPO prices following the weakening of rival palm oil in China. Trading Palm olein for May 2017 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange slumped by 1.37 percent at 6.332. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems weakened. Contract prices in February 2017 which is the most active contract ringgit depreciated by 0.9 percent and traded at 3,086 ringgit per tonne. Analysts estimate that the price movement of CPO futures at the next trade will weaken the weakening potential of palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in February 2017 Malaysia has the potential to test the support level at 3,040 ringgit and 2,990 ringgit.
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The price of tin in Malaysia stable exchange trading on Friday (09/12). The stable price of tin with investors digested the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank. After the latest meeting of the Council, the European Center Bank (ECB) announced that the purchase of assets will continue to be made at 80 billion euros to March 2017. The Council also stated that the purchase of the assets would then continue but lowered to 60 billion euros from April 2017 until December 2017. This program will be extended after December 2017 if necessary until the ECB sees a sustained upturn in inflation is consistent and appropriate inflation goal. The price of tin in Malaysia observed stable commodity exchanges today. The industrial metals prices traded at 21 050 dollars per ton. Analysts estimate that Tin price movements at the next trade will move weakened by the strengthening of US dollar. Price will face support level between 20,950 dollars and 20,750 dollars.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices on the trading session Friday afternoon finished up. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely in May 2017 helped by weaker yen and rising crude oil prices. Observed USDJPY traded up 0.3 percent at 114.40. A weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Tocom rubber price increases also supported the rise of crude oil in the Asian trading session. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract, jumped by 5.0 yen or 2.1 percent at 245.40 yen per kilogram. For the next trading session price is expected to meet the level of resistance at 250.00 yen. No further resistance at 255.00 yen. Meanwhile if lower prices will find support between 240.00 yen and 235.00 yen. -
USDJPY pair movement on European session moves rallied after the price of this pair opened lower at 114.02 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 114.49. So this pair also facing a strong resistance. Japanese Yen on early Asia session has not been able to go strong after getting a big enough selling pressure in earlier trading after the announcement of the ECB tapering continuation of the American session yesterday. Despite the positive sentiment in early trading on the data BSI manufacturing index, which rose significantly, the yen was weighed by Fed rate hike sentiment that lifted the USDJPY pair until the evening session. Technically USDJPY is moving up towards 114.78-115.41 and if failed will fall back to around 113.77 -112.92. So analysts argued that the normal range for USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 112.41 and the resistance level at 115.41.
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Ahead of the American session forex trading, EURUSD consolidation movement narrowed with weak position to continue on previous trading pressure. Which makes the pair weakened sentiment was triggered by the decision of the ECB overnight tapering continuation, where the release of economic data early European session less powerful energizing the rebound. The market is expecting hawkish ECB policy overnight and benefits, the article hopes against US Dollar for the results of the Fed meeting next week are very slim. To raise interest rates, it is not easy for the Fed to do so before President-elect Trump officially worked as president of the country. At the beginning of the European session the release of economic data do not support the movement of EURUSD pair, data released such as German trade balance, French industrial production as well as the French government's budget. For the next trade until the close of trading in the end of American session tomorrow morning, analysts viewed as technically EURUSD is about to decline further to around the support range of 1.0573 - 1.0548. But if it does not penetrate that range then will rise towards resistance range between 1.0640-1.0709.
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At the end of trading Friday morning (09/12), Rotterdam coal price rises driven surge in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rebounded from lows this week at the end of trade on Friday morning (09/12), closed above $ 50 a barrel as the market focused on the upcoming weekend meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to strengthen an agreement to cut oil production more crude. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for January 2016 in the position of 73.00 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened by 4.00 dollars or equivalent to 5.80 percent compared to the previous closing. Analysts estimate that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade will weaken by the strengthening US Dollar. The price of coal futures could potentially test the support level at 72.50 dollars and 72.00 dollars.
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Gold price movements on Asia session is sluggish after being opened lower at 1170.55 in early trading , now the price of gold is still rolling at 1166.36. It seems this pair also trying to break the strong support. The price of gold on early Asia session pressured strongly by rising bond yields back in the United States that lifted the US dollar continued to rally throughout the day. Besides the strong Asian markets weighed on gold trading and will also continue in the European session. Technically, gold prices moved down to the range of 1163.39-1158.66. But if it is not, there are big chance this pair to climb back to the range 1174.28 - 1180.21. So analysts suggests that XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1156.12 and resistance level at 1182.63.
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The price of sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York early on Friday (09/12) ends slump depressed by the strengthening US dollar. The US dollar was rise around 0.85 percent against a basket of currencies after the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates and reduce the purchase of bonds from April 2017. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities sugar becomes more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 observed decline. The price of sugar futures have closed the most active slumped by 0.92 percent at 19.45 cents per pound. Analysts estimate that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade will weaken limited to the potential strengthening of US dollar. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the support level at 19.00 and 18.50 cents.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Amid the strength of the US dollar against its main rivals, Australian Dollar managed to rise by a moderate movement after opening lower on Asian session. The rally in crude oil prices become the driving force AUDUSD advance, which makes the country's leading commodity price increases. Power rebound predecessor came from the increase in Chinese inflation data released during Asia session showed an increase in the data from the previous period. Likewise, manufacturers' data or the Chinese domestic PPI rose more than expected. After the power increases with the price of iron ore and copper in the international commodity markets. For subsequent trade to the end of the New York session this evening it seems that analysts estimated that AUDUSD may keep rising towards the range between 0.7504-0.7563. But if not then the pair will fall down towards the range of 0.7435-0.7375. -
ICE Futures price of cocoa futures in late trade on Friday morning closed weak. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered by the strengthening US dollar. US dollar was rise about 0.85 percent against a basket of currencies after ECB's decision to keep interest rates and reduce the purchase of bonds from April 2017. A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts was observed to be closed down. Commodity prices closed sharply lower at 2.24 percent at 2,272 dollars per ton. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to break through support level at 2,220 dollar. If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,170 dollars.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (09/12) ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices again depressed the strengthening of the US dollar. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down at 1.4140 dollars, down by 0.21 percent. Tonight will be the data released December US Michigan Consumer Sentiment which indicated increased from the previous results. If these results are realized, will strengthen the US dollar. Analysts estimated that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures is about to test the support level between 1.3800 dollars and 1.3500 dollars.
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The price of sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York on Thursday morning (08/12) ended up still triggered increased demand for ethanol in Brazil. The increase in sugar futures boosted by news from Brazil Petrobras to raise wholesale prices of gas and diesel by respectively 8.1 percent and 9.5 percent respectively, triggered making ethanol more competitive for the plant to produce instead of sugar. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 was observed to increase. The price of sugar futures the most active closed up 0.12 cents, or equivalent to 0.62 percent at 19.63 cents per pound. Analysts estimated that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade will weaken since the US dollar also strengthening. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the support level between 19.10 cents and 18.60 cents.
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Gold price movements of the European session strengthening more than expectation after the price opened higher at 1174.61 in early trading, now the price of gold is still rolling at 1176.40. The price of gold on early European session moving strongly despite Asian and European stock markets move in the green zone, buoyed by the momentum of dollar weakness against many of its main rivals. Gold prices rose since the previous session by a decline in US bond yields up to 0,003 bp. Technically, gold prices attempted to climb towards the range between 1179.22-1185.66. But if not breaks will fall back to the range 1170.81 - 1165.37. So analysts suggest that XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1155.52 and resistance level at 1192.63.
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The price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Thursday morning (08/12) closed slump. The weakening of cocoa prices hit a 3.5 year triggered harvest in Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast will hold a harvest this year, with market participants forecast to 1.9 million tonnes for sale and Citibank said production will exceed demand this year. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in March 2017 which is the most active contract was observed to be closed down. Commodity prices closed down by 1.44 percent at 2,324 dollars per ton. Tonight will be released the data Jobless Claims last week that indicated declining. If realized, it will strengthen US dollar. Analysts estimated that the price of cocoa futures for the next trade will weakening by the strengthening US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the support level at 2,270 dollar. If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,220 dollars.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading on Thursday morning (12/08) ends slump. The weakening of arabica coffee prices triggered increased production of arabica coffee. Arabica coffee prices have been weakened by oversupply, Estimates for this season crops in Colombia, the producer of arabica No. 2 in the world, was revised upwards by 5.3% last month, according to Alexandra Wexla to Barron. Rabobank analyst, Carlos Mera stated very good weather in Colombia and Central America, as well as Honduras, generating a volume of good product. Meanwhile, in Brazil the weather has been very good also address the initial concerns over drought that has sparked forecast poor harvest in 2017. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down at 1.4170 dollars, down by 0.21 percent. Analysts estimate that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken limited by the strengthening of the US Dollar. The price of Arabica coffee has the potential to test support at 1.3900 dollars and 1.3600 dollars.
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At the end of trading on Thursday morning (08/12), Rotterdam coal price closed up triggered by the weakening US dollar. The US dollar weakened against the euro overnight ahead of a meeting of the European Central Bank. The US dollar fell 0.21 percent against a basket of currencies. The weakening US dollar makes the price of coal sold rotterdam denominated in dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing, so Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in December 2016 ended up at 80.65 dollars per ton. The commodity price increased by 1.77 percent compared to the previous closing. Analysts estimated that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 80.15 dollars and the next at 79.65 dollars if able to break the first support level.
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Crude oil prices rose on Thursday on Asian session, supported by a weaker dollar ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting and a decline in US crude inventory. Crude futures West Texas Intermediate rose 11 cents, or 0.22 percent, to $ 49.88 per barrel. International crude oil futures prices traded Brent edged up 3 cents, or 0.06 percent, at $ 53.03 per barrel. Crude inventories in the United States fell 2.4 million barrels in the week ended December 2, compared with analyst expectations for a decline of 1 million barrels. But inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub US crude futures, rose a strong 3.8 million barrels last week, the most since 2009, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Oil prices have been supported since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia reached a landmark agreement last week to cut production to scrape the excess global supply and support prices. OPEC oil producers and non-OPEC will meet again this weekend in the Austrian capital to discuss details of the deal last week, aiming for an overall reduction in production of about 1.5 million barrels per day. Analysts estimated that crude oil prices will move higher is limited by dollar weakness ahead of a meeting of the European Central Bank. Crude oil prices are expected to move in a range resistance between $ 50.40 and $ 50.90.
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Euro exchange rate movements based on Asia session is a positive move towards the US dollar after the price of this pair opened at 1.0753 in early trading , and the Euro exchange rate is now rolling on the position of 1.0776. Euro in the end of Asia session seems rally earlier after continue receiving positive sentimenb market awaits the results of the ECB policy meeting on monetary policy in late 2016 and continued tapering decision in 2017. Markets expect the ECB to announce its tepering will continue in 2017. For the catalysts driving the US dollar itself on American session very weak. Technically, EURUSD will attempt to rise towards the resistance range between 1.0752-1.0870 and if this pair failed to break this range then EURUSD will fall towards the support range between 1.0675-1.0646. And analysts argued that EURUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.0670 and the resistance level at 1.0850.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Step into forex trading on Asia session on Thursday (8/12), the selling pressure against the US dollar continues ahead of the announcement of the policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) before the end of 2016. US dollar fell a quarter percent responded ended downs yeld or returns US bond yields. In the end of US stock trading early this morning, monitored the country's government bond yields fell. 10th bond yield fell to 0.003 bp to 2.34%, as well as to bond the 30th dropped 0,003 bp to 3.02%. In terms of economic data, the data indicates data jolts lower than the previous period. This morning the US dollar observed a negative move in the red zone against all the major currencies of the world. And for data mover strong dollar at the evening session showed negative data and weaken the pace of the world's major currencies. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies weakening on Asia session at 99.99, in early trading after opened at 100.22. -
Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Many have wondered why the Australian dollar exchange rate movements are still able to rally despite a lot of negative sentiment strong attempt to weaken the currency. Starting from the sentiment of the country trade data release in October decreased, the release of Chinese trade data also decreased, falling prices of crude oil and commodities excellent. Besides seeing the kangaroos domestic bond trading, bond yields are actually being decreased by 6 basis points to bond the 10th. Analysts viewed as currencies that have higher yields in Asia, the Australian dollar rally to get energy from the growing trade in riskier assets ranging from Wall Street to Asian session. For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, It seems that analysts estimate AUDUSD has a chance to continue rise to around the range of 0.7526-0.7563. But if not then the pair breaks this range will drop to the range of 0.7464-0.7427. -
After the Japanese government announced its economic growth declined in the third quarter from the previous quarter, Yen movements in the forex market actually showed gains. USDJPY continued movement of the yen in the previous trading power that receives power from the US bond trading conditions. Japan's Cabinet Office announced Q3-2016 GDP fell to 0.3% from 0.5% in the previous period, even fell below the expectations of an increase in growth of 0.6%. The fall in the exchange rate data as a major driver of the Japanese yen USDJPY did not make the pair to rise. Besides ending the American stock trading early this morning, monitored the country's government bond yields fell. 10th bond yield fell about 0.003 bp to 2.34%, as well as to bond the 30th dropped 0,003 bp to 3.02%. The condition weakens the US dollar in the USDJPY dropped to around 113 from the highest peak this year at 114. For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session trading has the potential to continue to fall, so the analysts estimate may be further USDJPY pair dropped again to the support range between 112.78 to 112.01. But if there is a correction to rise to a range of 114.07-114.86.
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Pound exchange rate movements in the end of Asia session move weaker against USD after the price of this pair opened lower at around 1.2624 in the early session trading. The pound in this case seems falling down around 19 pips and trying the rolling value is at 1.2653. The pound managed to move the end of the Asian session rally after being opened in the previous trading continued pressure. Power derived from the rebounding market sentiment focusing awaits the results of ECB meeting and also the position of British politics which further to penetrate the European market after Brexit. Technically GBPUSD seems rise towards the resistance range between 1.2678-1.2735 and if it does not reach this range this pair will drop towards the range of 1.2604-1.2575 . So the analysts suggest that GBPUSD is estimated to have the support level at 1.2531 and the resistance level at 1.2747.