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myregister
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Pound exchange rate movements at end of Asia session has a negative movement against US Dollar itself after the price of GBPUSD itself opened lower at around 1.2564 in early trading, the pound exchange rate is now falling down 29 pips and the pair is rolling at 1.2535. GU continue negative movement and depressed enter the third consecutive day, triggered by the Fed hawkish sentiment on the trading session overnight with the central bank raised interest rates on US second time after nearly a decade has not changed. In the European session there is a monetary policy announcement is expected hawkish BOE so as to make the GBPUSD rebound. Technically GBPUSD attempted to climb towards the 1.2584-1.2736 range and breakout happened will rise again to the next resistance. But if failed price will be corrected down to the support range between 1.2503-1.2468. So many analysts suggested that GBPUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1.2432 and the resistance level at 1.2652.
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The price of tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange fell on Thursday afternoon (15/12). A weaker tin prices supported the increase in the US dollar overnight. The US dollar rose by 1.1 percent against a basket of currencies, after Fed raised US interest rates for the first time this year. Strengthening of the US dollar makes the price of tin is sold in US dollars become more expensive, so demand decreases. Tin seems weakening on Malaysia Bourse today. The industrial metals prices traded at 21.150 dollars per ton, fall by 0.4 percent from its previous close at 21 230. Tonight will be released November US inflation data indicated increased. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Malaysian tin price movements at the next trade will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. Price will face the level of support in position 20,950 dollars and 20,750 dollars.
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Crude oil prices flat in Asian trade on Thursday (15/12) triggered expectations of tightening production market in 2017 driven decline in production planned by OPEC and non-OPEC, offsetting the rise in US interest rates Wednesday depress commodity prices. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $ 50.96 a barrel, down 8 cents, or 0.16 percent. International crude oil futures prices Brent traded at $ 53.93 a barrel, up 3 cents, or 0.06 percent. ANZ Bank, on Thursday said the oil market would move to a sizeable deficit in the first quarter of 2017 if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers led by Russia reduced their production of nearly 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that commercial crude oil inventories last week fell by 2.56 million barrels to 483.19 million barrels. However, traders said it was far from clear whether OPEC and other producers will follow up on an agreement to cut output. OPEC produced 33.87 million barrels per day last month, according to figures compiled from secondary sources, up 150,000 bpd from October, OPEC said in its monthly report on Wednesday. It shows the group's production continues to increase, adding to the global glut, towards the beginning of the supply agreement in January where the first cut since 2008. Analysts estimated that crude oil prices could potentially flat with the pull of sentiment decline in inventories and a stronger dollar. But if tonight the US dollar continued to strengthen, will push oil prices. Crude oil prices are expected to move in a range Support between $ 50.50 and $ 50.00.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices on the trading session Thursday afternoon (15/12) finished up. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely in May 2017 helped to strengthen the yen weakened. USDJPY currency traded up 0.6 percent at 117.69. A weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract, which is May 2017 this afternoon observed to rise by 9.9 yen or 3.6 percent at 282.20 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing at 272.30 yen per kilogram. Tocom rubber price movements on the next trading day may still appreciate by the weakening yen. For the next trading session price is expected to meet the resistance at 287.00. No further resistance will bring the price towards 292.00 yen. -
The price of sugar futures on ICE Futures exchange in late New York trading on Thursday morning (15/12) ended plummeted triggered the estimated increase production surplus and a rise in US interest rates strengthen the US dollar. Sugar production in Brazil, the largest producer and exporter in the world, has soared during the current season. The industry group Unica said on Wednesday that the mill center-south of the country produces 1.1 million tons of sugar, up 61%, during the second half of November. Brazilian factory has been geared to produce more sugarcane for sugar instead of ethanol. Production mix for the second half of last month was 47.3% to 52.7% sugar ethanol. A year earlier, the mixture was 33.1% and 66.9% sugar ethanol. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract observed decline. Sugar futures have closed plummeted by 3.06 percent at 18.03 cents per pound. Analysts estimated that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade will weaken the US dollar strengthening. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the support level at 17.50 cents and 17.00 cents.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
US central bank decided to raise interest rates at the end of this year, and the US dollar very much look forward to rising to the highest in 13 years. In FX markets, the Fed's decision most adversely affect the yen as US bond yields soaring. The results of FOMC meeting which lasted for two days agreed all high-Fed officials raised their benchmark interest rate by 25 bp to 0.75%. This increase represents the increase delayed after the end of last year is projected to rise as much as 3 times. Adverse effects for other currencies, yen falls to 8-month lows, the euro fell to its lowest in 22 months, the pound fell to its lowest in 12 days, the Australian dollar fell to its lowest in 12 days and swissfranc fell to its lowest in 14 months , The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies in Asian trade is at 102.37, after in early trading opened at 102.02. Previous trading dollar closed at 102.02. -
At the end of trading on Thursday morning (15/12), Rotterdam coal price rise pushed the estimated increase in Asian demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said there will be strong growth in demand in Asian countries such as India, Vietnam and Indonesia, where "coal-based electricity is one of the preferred option to increase power generation,". Small importers including Pakistan and Malaysia will also stimulate demand, stimulate the growth of maritime trade through India 2021. Demand will rise 5 percent per year through 2021, while in ASEAN will jump 7.2 percent per year. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for March 2017 in the position of 80.75 dollars per ton. Commodity prices gained 1.95 dollars or equivalent to 2.47 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be released November US inflation data indicated increased. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Many analysts estimated that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade will weaken by the strengthening US dollar. The price of coal futures could potentially test the Support level at 80.25 dollars and 79.75 dollars.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading on Thursday morning (135/12) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases triggered Brazilian import ban policy. Dealers said they were also looking at Brazil where a shortage of robusta coffee is causing problems for coffee producers in the country and expects to import will be allowed. Brazil has a de facto ban on imports green coffee from both robusta and arabica with sanitary safety reasons, which protect farmers in the local market from competition from producers in other countries. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in March 2017 closed up at 1.4415 dollar positions, rose 1.30 cent. Analysts estimated that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price has the potential to test the level of support at 1.4100 dollars and 1.3800 dollars.
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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Thursday morning (15/12) closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered a decrease in the distribution of cocoa production in Ivory Coast. Cocoa arrival at the port in top producer Ivory Coast reach 483 255 tonnes on November 30 since the beginning of the season on Oct. 1, according to data seen by Reuters on Wednesday, down nearly 12 percent from 548 494 tonnes in the same period of the previous season. In November, 272 096 tons arrived at the two ports of Abidjan and San Pedro, compared to 246 420 tonnes in the same month of last season. Figures from marketing boards Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) is lower than 548,000 tons of grain exporters are estimated to have shipped to the port of Abidjan and San Pedro 30 November. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in March 2017 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 26 dollars, or 1.14 percent at 2,315 dollars per ton. Cocoa futures to trade potentially weakening further limited by the potential strengthening of US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures New York would potentially break the support level at 2,265 dollars.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia observed commodity exchanges rose on Thursday afternoon (15/12). CPO price hike this afternoon supported the weakening ringgit. Observed Ringgit currency weakened against the US dollar so USDMYR rose 0.40 percent at 4.4657. Ringgit weakening occurs after strong US dollar triggered by the Fed's decision to raise US interest rates this morning. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the target range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent to the range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent. The weakening ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so that demand is increasing. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to have increased. Contract prices in February 2017 which is the most active contract rose as much as 51 ringgit, or 1.6 percent and traded at 3,176 ringgit per tonne. Analysts estimated that price movement of CPO futures at the next trade potentially strengthened by the potential weakening ringgit. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in February 2017 Malaysia has the potential to test the resistance level at 3,230 ringgit and 3,280 ringgit
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The drop in the Australian dollar exchange rate to fall to its lowest in 12 days after the Fed rate hike is not resumed trading on Thursday, because this kangaroo country currency has a higher yield in the Asia Pacific region. Besides the shot from the rebound in crude oil prices and solid economic data. Australian Statistical Office (ABS) announced labor market performance data remarkable improvement, even if the unemployment rate increases, but the increase of labor increased 2-fold from the previous period even high expectations. Likewise, the price of Crude oil rose from 5-day lows. For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, analysts estimated that AUDUSD continued may rise towards the range of resistance between 0.7443-0.7472. But if not then the pair may corrected for a while and fall towards 0.7373-0.7354. -
Gold price movements on European session is weak against its counter part USD, after opened higher at 1162.61 in early trading (0000 GMT), now the price of gold is still rolling at 1161.71. Gold prices trimmed in the early of European session by the resurgent of Asian equity markets towards the end of trading and European stock markets opened positive or higher than the previous trade. Additionally sentiment strong Fed rate hike overshadow gold price movements Technically, gold prices seems fall down towards the range between 1156.47-1150.55. But if the pair cannot, then it may do the opposite with rise towards the range of 1168.93 - 1171.73. So the analysts suggested that XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1141.88 and resistance level at 1177.34.
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Crude oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday on Asia session on profit-taking pressure. But the rise in bullish sentiment stalled by strong demand in Asia and as a sign of decline in the production of crude oil held by OPEC and other exporters materialized. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell 10 cents to $ 52.73 per barrel, with US producers did not participate in the reduction of production. International crude oil price Brent futures traded at $ 55.67 per barrel, almost unchanged from the last closing. Traders said there had been some profit taking crude oil surged to a mid-2015 earlier this week after the head of the Middle Eastern Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other exporters led by Russia reached an agreement to cut production by nearly 1.8 million barrels per day to reduce the excess supply and shore up prices. Meanwhile, China's November crude oil production fell 9 percent on a year earlier to 3.915 million barrels per day, data showed on Tuesday, but recovered from October's 3.78 million barrels per day, which is the lowest in more than seven years. Analysts in this case estimated that crude oil futures prices will weaken limited by profit-taking after crude prices soaring. But the rising demand in Asia and production occur cut deal could lift crude oil prices back. Crude oil prices are expected to move in a range Support of $ 52.20 and $ 51.70
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The movement of USDJPY pair on Asian session rallied after the price of this pair opened higher at 115.03 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 115.16. Also about to break the strong resistance. It seems that Yen on late Asia session retreat by the cessation of safe haven trading after the release of China's steady economic data exceeded expectations. Asian stock markets opened previously dropped by the fed rate hike concerns that triggered safe-haven trades. Technically, this pair seems fall down towards 115.50-116.41 and if it did not get through 115.50 then USDJPY will fall back to around 114.50 -113.53. So the analyst suggests that USDJPY pair is estimated to have the support level at 112.77 and the resistance level at 116.75.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The Chinese Government has just announced several economic data is Nvember month period on Tuesday (13/12) by showing satisfactory data beyond what was previously thought. The strength of this data is usually able to make speeding aussie dollar against the US dollar and other rivals, but what happens towards the end of the Asian session retreat. In November, the Chinese data, retail sales data is gaining higher data. Industrial production data also experienced an increase from the previous period but for the investment data remains unchanged. Retail sales data and industrial production is a major driving force for the Australian Dollar. For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, analysts estimated that further AUDUSD has chance to retreat to the range between 0.7480-0.7439. But if not then the pair breaks this range will rise again to the range of 0.7525-0.7545. -
ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (13/12) closed bullish. Strengthening cocoa prices encouraged bargain hunting investors. Bargain hunting going on after the cocoa price fell about 9 percent last week, so it is used by investors to buy more at low prices. Analysts said the market moved from a surplus of cocoa production for a year to a deficit of production with higher prices for farmers in West Africa which helped boost the production at the same time that the weather conditions had improved for developing crops. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures was observed to rise. Cocoa closed by 3.23 percent at 2,240 dollars per ton. Analysts estimate that the price of cocoa futures to trade potentially weakening further limited by the potential strengthening of US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures New York would potentially break support at 2,190 dollars. If the Support level is successfully penetrated the next level is 2,140 dollars
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (13/12) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported bargain hunting and a weaker US Dollar. Traders bargain hunting occurs after ICE arabica coffee prices fell 4.4 percent last week, so it is used by traders to buy at a bargain price. The price increase was also supported by a weaker US dollar. The US dollar seem fall down 0.59 percent against a basket of currencies. The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in March 2017 closed up at 1.4200 dollar positions, rose 2.65 cents, or equivalent to 1.90 percent. Analysts estimated that Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test support level between 1.3900 dollars and 1.3600 dollars.
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The price of sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York Tuesday morning (13/12) ended up slightly triggered the strengthening of the Brazilian Real. At the close of trading yesterday the Brazilian Real currency strengthened against the US dollar. USDBRL fall down around 1.18 percent at 3.3370. The strengthening of the Brazilian Real is the bullish sentiment for commodity prices denominated in US dollar, making exports less attractive in the local currency. Brazil is the world's top producers of sugar.At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract was observed to increase. The price rose by 0.05 percent at 19.25 cents per pound. Analysts estimated that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade will weaken with the strengthening US dollar which triggered by strengthening expectations of US rate hike. Prices has the potential to test the support level at 18.75 cents and 18.25 cents.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices on the trading session Tuesday afternoon was observed to rise. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely in May 2017 helped to strengthen the yen weakened. USDJPY traded up 0.1 percent at 115.13. A weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract observed rise by 1.7 yen or 0.7 percent at 257.70 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing at 256.00 yen per kilogram. Analysts estimate that Tocom rubber price movements on the next trading day may still appreciate the weakening yen. For the next trading session price is expected to meet resistance level at 263.00 yen positions. and further resistance at 268.00 yen. -
At the end of trading Tuesday morning , Rotterdam coal price rises driven surge in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices surged 6.5 percent in trading Monday (12/12) to reach a 18-month high after OPEC and non-OPEC countries reached their first agreement since 2001 to jointly reduce production to try to tackle global oversupply. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract in February 2016 traded at 71.55 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened at 2.40 dollars, equivalent to 3.47 percent compared to the previous closing. Analysts estimated that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade will weaken stressed the strengthening US dollar. The price may test support level at 71.00 dollars and next the testing at 70.50 dollars. While the level of resistance to be tested if the price increase is at 72.00 dollars and 72.50 dollars.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia commodity exchanges in trading Tuesday afternoon (13/12) was observed to fall. A weaker CPO prices this afternoon triggered weakening of crude oil in the Asian trading session. Crude oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday (13/12) in the Asian session on profit-taking pressure. But the rise in bullish sentiment stalled by strong demand in Asia and as a sign of decline in the production of crude oil held by OPEC and other exporters materialized. The decline in crude oil prices to trigger negative sentiment that makes the price of CPO in the downward trend. The weakening in crude oil prices make alternative fuels such as those made of CPO declined his request. CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to weaken contract in February 2017 which is the most active contract fell by -11 ringgit or 0.4 percent and traded at 3,058 ringgit per tonne. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in February 2017 Malaysia has the potential to test the support level at 3,010 ringgit and 2,960 ringgit. While the level of resistance to be tested if there was a strengthening is between 3,110 ringgit and 3,160 ringgit.
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The price of tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Tuesday afternoon (13/12). The increase in the price of tin supported dollar weakness overnight. The price increase was also supported by a weaker US dollar. US dollar was down 0.59 percent against a basket of currencies. The weakening US dollar makes the price of tin which sold on US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 21,100 dollars per tonne, up by 50 dollars from its previous close at 21 050. Analysts estimated that Malaysian tin price movements at the next trade will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. Price will face the support level first at around 20,900 dollars and if able to break it will rise to 20,700 dollars.
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Pound exchange rate movements in the end of Asia session is positive against USD after the price of this pair opened higher at 1.2679 in early trading, the pound exchange rate is now falling down around 5 pips and the pair is rolling at 1.2674. Pound on early Asian session tried to continue strengthening that exhibited significantly earlier trade but restrained by the strong sentiment Fed rate hike this week. Today the Fed will begin their regular monthly meeting last year and the results will be announced tomorrow. In the European session there is a release of data that may provide power for the GBPUSD. Technically GBPUSD descend towards the range of 1.2655-1.2596. But if it breaks down 1.2655 then it will fall towards 1.2596. So the analysts suggested that the normal range for GBPUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.2553 and the resistance level at 1.2750.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Entering the second day forex trading this week on Asian session it seems that US dollar still weak and have limited movement after earlier trading dropped quite badly against many of its main rivals. Earlier in the week (12/12) experienced profit taking amid quiet the strong fundamental data mover and also rival the US dollar. Weakening happened this morning going by the tug of war between sentiment sentiment where it expected Fed rate hikes decided tomorrow and the consolidation of the Chinese economic data that exceeded expectations. There is also the fundamental data releases some of its rivals are pretty strong. Against rivals, are also being monitored natural consolidation of the doubt to invest in Asian markets today. But moments later the movement of its rivals are expected to climb if sentiment continues to rise in Fed rate cut. For the release of economic data is strong enough influence US dollars at the evening session only US import price data for November. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies in Asian trade is at 100.96, after in early trading opened at 100.95. Previous trading dollar closed at 100.94 positions. -
Euro exchange rate movements on Asia session proven to have a negative movement against US Dollar after the price opened higher at 1.0636 in early trading (0000 GMT), and the Euro exchange rate is now rolling on around 1.0635. Euro start on Asian session by moving naturally and consolidated also get a profit taking pressure is not responding to the strong sentiment forex trading for Fed rate hikes this week. In the European session EURUSD has the potential to move up by the strength of economic data from Germany are expected to be positive. Technically, EURUSD is moving higher on European session at around 1.0694-1.0755 and if failed to touch 1.0694 then corrected back towards the range between 1.0604-1.0533. Analysts suggested that the normal range of EURUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 1.0501 and the resistance level at 1.0749.