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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Starting a forex trading on Asia session earlier in the week, US dollar experienced a weakening weekly with little natural profit taking after the weekend exhibited significantly strengthening trend. Rebound weekend almost cut the previous trading weakening diterangkat by the US labor market conditions are still in line with expectations. US dollars are sold to the trade with some of its main rivals, except against Yen which was off its financial markets so little sentiment that moves the top currency in the Asian region. For further movement of the dollar is expected to rise overall up to NY session but it seems will be limited by lack of major propulsion trading against many of its main rivals. Additionally sentiment driving rival will provide a strong force to press the US dollar further. The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies at the end of the New York trading sessionrose 0.72 percent to 102.15. While this morning on Asia session it seems that US index move towards 102.20 and 102.19. -
Crude oil prices fell on Asian session due to increased exports of oil producer Iran undermined efforts to curb excess global fuel supply and the increased activity of US driller for 10 consecutive weeks. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $ 53.73 a barrel, down 26 cents, or 0.48 percent. While the price of Brent traded at $ 56.86 a barrel, down 24 cents, or 0.42 per cent of their final closure. Traders said lower prices are a result of increased exports of Iran comes a time when other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut supply in an effort to end the global glut. Iran has sold more than 13 million barrels of oil held in tankers at sea, take advantage of an OPEC output cut agreement, while Iran is excluded from the deal to regain market share and establish new buyers, according to industry sources and data. The amount of oil held in northwest Iran has declined to 16.4 million barrels, according to data from Thomson Reuters Oil Flows. Analysts estimated that Crude Oil price could potentially further weakened by the strengthening US dollar and fears of an increase in production in Iran and US. However, if the emerging optimism or news about the implementation of the agreement of OPEC and non-OPEC, will be able to lift prices.
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The price of sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York ended declined stressed by the strengthening US dollar. A stronger dollar makes commodities denominated sugar becomes more expensive in other currencies, so the demand is decreasing. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 was decreased. The price of sugar futures closed the most active decline about 0.03 per cent, equivalent to 0.14 percent at 20.75 cents per pound. Analysts estimated that Raw Sugar's price for the next trading's session will weaken with limited potential for the strengthening US dollar. Price of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has potential to test support level at 20.25 cents and 19.75 cents.
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British pound exchange rate could move rebound after a strong weekend depressed on early Europe session. However, tumbled again received negative sentiment of the statement Prime Minister Theresa May to strengthen the sentiment hard brexit. Therefore trade sterling against many world currencies come under pressure. Theresa May said it would conduct negotiations to trade some European countries after the exit from the European Union, it is expected to trigger adverse market brexit will process more quickly after the March statement when GBP exit. Market's response will have to make a pound tumbled to its lowest in 12 weeks. For the economy as a Pound's data mover pounds on European session there Halifax data. This data is expected to increase from the previous period, but if the data is no significant increase in strength to GBPUSD rebounds. But until the evening session sentiment hard brexit will still torturing pair. Based on that it seems that many analysts estimated that further the movement of GBPUSD will react negatively and will fall towards 1.2173-1.2161, and if there will be more positive correction will back towards 1.2194- 1.2201.
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Cocoa futures on ICE Futures closed down slightly. Flat movement cocoa prices triggered the pull of the strengthening US dollar sentiment with impaired distribution of cocoa in Ivory Coast. A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. Meanwhile an industry source said authorities blocked the Ivory Coast cocoa exports because the price difference is determined by the board of the national cocoa futures prices in London trading. Trucks which is carrying thousands of tons of cocoa has been blocked at the main port of the Ivory Coast, the world's top producer. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in March 2017 which is the most active contract closed down slightly observed. Commodity prices closed down by 0.04 percent at 2,261 dollars per ton. With that data, many analysts estimated that Cocoa futures for the next session will weaken limited by the strengthening of US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the support level at 2,210 dollar.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia observed commodity exchanges rose on Monday afternoon (01/09). CPO price hike this afternoon supported the weakening ringgit. USDMYR exchange rate strengthened 0.1 percent at 4.4777. The weakening ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so that demand is increasing, so CPO price most active contract on Malaysia bourse today seems to have increased. The contract price in March 2017 rose as much as 0.9 percent and traded at 3,104 ringgit per tonne. Analysts estimated that CPO futures for the next trading session potentially strengthened by the potential weakening ringgit. CPO futures contract prices on commodity exchanges in February 2017 Malaysia has the potential to test the resistance level 3,150 ringgit and 3,200 ringgit
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In late trading seems like Rotterdam coal prices ended down. Coal prices have eroded by the strengthening US dollar. The increase of US dollar makes the price of Rotterdam coal to be expensive so the demand is getting stronger. Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 slump to around 73.00 dollars per ton. This commodity prices decreased by 0.45 dollars, equivalent to 0.60 percent compared to the previous closing. Analysts based on that data estimated that Rotterdam coal price for the next session may drop as US Dollar keep strengthening its position. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 72.50 dollars and if able to break that support may fall deeper towards next support at 72.00 dollars.
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The movement of USDJPY pair on Asia session objectively stronger than expected after opened lower at 117.01 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 117.46. Pair trying to achieve strong resistance range. Yen is still depressed simultaneously with her off the Japanese financial markets are more driven by the sentiment of the US dollar. The rise in US Treasuries at the end of last week succeeded in energizing rally for USDJPY pair. But in the American session can be corrected if the sentiment driving the US dollar depressed. Technically, USDJPY could fall to the range of support between 116.30-115.60 if the current pair did not manage to penetrate around 118.88. Throughout today analysts estimate that USDJPY will have the support level at 115.01 and the resistance level at 118.61.
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The price of arabica coffee futures ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices again depressed the strengthening of the US dollar which lifted by data on non-farm payrolls showing a slowdown in hiring last month but an increase in wages. This report supports the view that the US Federal Reserve will go ahead with a rate hike this year Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed in March 2017 sank at the position 1.4285 dollars, down by -0.90 cents or equal to -0.63 percent. For the week, Coffee is still strong, with steady rise for 4.23 percent. Coffee price increase is supported by the strengthening of Brazilian Real, the weakening US dollar and also following Robusta coffee price increases. Analysts estimated that Arabica Coffee futures on the next trading session will weaken the US dollar strengthening trend. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test the support level first at 1.4000 dollars and next one at 1.3700 dollars.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
In the midst of efforts to rally, only the Australian Dollar which is still strong and bullish against the US dollar. AUDUSD gained power against US dollar powerful sentiment from many of the economic data, crude oil prices and the prospects of the mining business in 2017 by the Australian government. At the beginning of the session, Australian Statistical Office (ABS) reported the building aprovals period from December natural leap of data from the previous period of contraction alias negative, the data showed in a good position. The next pair strength of crude oil price movements which received support from the update production cut some OPEC member countries. Australian dollar exchange rate movements on Asia session move strongly against US Dollar, after the price opened lower at around 0.7295 earlier, Australian dollar exchange rate is now rolling at 0.7314. So for the next session, many analyts estimate AUDUSD pair will go towards 0.7336-0.7360. -
At the end of trading Friday morning (06/01), Rotterdam coal price rises pushed higher crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rose in late trade on Friday morning (06/01), lifted by the action of Saudi Arabia, which has cut production to meet the agreement of OPEC and Non OPEC producers. At the end of the trading Rotterdam's coal futures contract price in February 2017 traded at 79.30 dollars per ton. It seems that commodity prices gained 1.20 dollars or equivalent to 1.54 percent compared to the previous closing. Analysts predicted that Coal price for the next session has bigger chance to rise by US Dollar weakness. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 79.80 dollars and if break it once again will rise towards the next resistance level at 80.30 dollars.
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In the middle of the movement of US dollar start a correction after a rebound on Asia session, just as its rivals are difficult pound continued to rally 2 consecutive days. Sentiment hard brexit reappeared and weighing on GBPUSD to rebound from profit-taking pressure on early Asia sessio. For the sentiment which driving GBPUSD is a British local economical data which strongly driven by sentiment of US dollar. But despite the negative sentiment overshadowing US dollar, the exchange rate will not be able to rise pounds because receive bad sentiment of hard brexit. Analysts estimated that GBPUSD has bigger chance to fall towards the range of 1.2362-1.2299 which act as the sentiment from markets, and if it is failed to reach that range there would be chance for rebound and will rise towards 1.2421- 1.2456.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Natural rubber prices Tocom futures on Friday afternoon (06/01) ended down. The weakening of rubber prices eroded Tocom drop in crude prices. The weakening in crude oil prices make synthetic rubber production costs become cheaper. The impact demand for commodities like natural rubber is traded on Tocom decreased. In today's trading, the price of rubber futures for the most active contract which a contract that expires in June 2017 fell by 2.10 percent, to 267.5 yen per kilogram, down from its previous close on 273 , 1 yen per kilogram. Analysts estimated that Tocom rubber futures for the next session will weaken by the potential weakening of Crude Oil that can push prices Tocom rubber. But also need to be observed Yen movements that can affect the price of rubber Tocom. Price may test the support level at 261.50 yen and 256.50 yen. Prices will meet resistance at the level of 272.50 if the price is in positive territory. -
Malaysian based Tin price on Malaysia Bourse observed to rise on Friday. The increase in the price of tin supported by dollar weakness overnight. US dollar extended losses against a basket of six major currencies after data showed US private employers added 153,000 jobs in December, below economists' expectations. Private sector workers slowed in December, according to data released on Thursday (05/01) by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc.Pelemahan US dollar makes the price of tin is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Tin futures price on Malaysia Bourse observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 21,100 dollars per tonne, rise by around 0.3 percent from its previous close at 20.040. Analysts estimated that in the next session The price of Tin has potential to strengthening further limited by the weaker US dollar. Price will face the resistance level at 21,300 dollars and next towards 21,500 dollars.
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Gold price movements in the end of Europe session moves stronger than expected against US Dollar opening higher at 1180.10 in early trading, now the price of gold is still rolling at 1174.70. The price of gold has exceeded the range of the strong resistance. Since entering EU session, Gold price trimmed by the strong US Dollar's momentum against many of its main rivals. But it would be stronger if US dollar depressed by the night session stronger by NFP data release in December and retail sales data in an equally lower than the previous period. Technically, Gold price will rise back towards the range of 1183.90-1188.22 if the price decline then the price may reach the range of 1173.37 - 1165.55. So analysts suggested that Gold is expected to have the support level at 1156.09 and 1195.50.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The movement of US dollar could rebound since Asia session and was observed to begin trimmed in the middle of Europe session by the negative sentiment on the economic reports in the American session the night. Rival visible is the aussie dollar began to strengthen after a rebound in crude oil prices. The rate of US dollar over the last 2 months to achieve the highest position in 14 years began to expire at the end of the holiday weekend, and this morning's effort rebound triggered by technical movements are already in oversold point. But the strength of the rebound is limited due to the strong negative sentiment overshadowing the dollar rate hingg American session ends. In the evening sessions are fairly major driver of the dollar as NFP data release in December, the data of trade balance, unemployment rate data and factory orders in December 2016. Third, data is expected to show the data that is worse than the previous period. The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies on European session moves negatively towards 101.54 after on Asia session the price opened at 101.35 and had reached the highest position at 101.76. -
USDJPY based on Europa session was moving stronger than what expected even after the price opened higher at around 115.36 in early trading, and now the pair is at 116.15. Pair trying to achieve strong resistance range. Japanese Yen on European session make a profit taking after 2 straight days of strong rally against the US dollar, so USDJPY pair gain and rose from its lowest level since December 14, 2016. USDJPY sentiment lifted by wishful positive NFP data market will lift the dollar in the US session US returned. Technically, USDJPY could fall towards the support range between 114.73-113.77. If this pair failed to fall then this pair will rise towards the resistance range between 116.50-116.98. Throughout this day, analysts estimated that USDJPY have the support level at 113.77 and resistance level at 117.45
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The price of sugar futures on ICE Futures exchange in late New York trade on Friday morning (06/01) ended weaker triggered rising delivery distribution of sugar in Brazil. In the port of Santos Brasil is expected to distribute 20.32 million tonnes of sugar in large numbers in 2017, up 7.6%, so the release of Sugaronline, Thursday (5/12). Weakening US dollar makes Sugar became cheaper in other currencies. At the close of trading early Sugar futures for the most active contract on March 2017 observed a decline. The price of sugar futures have closed by 0.53 percent at 20.78 cents per pound. Analysts estimated that Raw Sugar futures on NY session for the next trading session has potential to rise by the weakening US dollar. Sugar futures has the potential to test the resistance level at 21.30 cents and 21.80 cents.
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The movement of EUR exchange rate that moves consolidated against US dollar since Asia session trading until European session this evening (6/1), turn to the red zone. More strong negative movement of the euro triggered by a report of the German economy in the early European session were less encouraging. Destatis Germany announced a performance report that domestic retail sales in November, exceeding expectations contraction worse than the previous month period positive. After that Eurostat announced contraction in regional retail sales data from the previous month period were positive. For the next trade until the close of trading ending on American session tomorrow morning, analysts estimated that fundamentally EURUSD has bigger chance to rise up the resistance range between 1.0625 and 1.0660.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
The movement of Australian dollar which had a negative sentiment on Asia session by the slump in copper prices is very significant, managed to rebound back in the middle of the European trading session the weekend (6/1) by sentiment strengthening crude oil prices tumbled early trading. By correcting the early Asian session weakness, it makes AUDUSD tried to move the rally that has lasted for three consecutive days. And during the American session rally AUDUSD growing louder by the negative sentiment overshadowing US dollar. For subsequent trade to next session this evening, many analysts estimated that AUDUSD will rise towards the next resistance range between 0.7373-0.7420. But if there is a correction where price likely to fall to the the range of 0.7307-0.7278. -
ICE Futures price of cocoa futures in late trade on Friday morning (06/01) closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered by the weakening US dollar. A weakening US dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa becomes cheaper in other currencies. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in March 2017 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. Soaring commodity prices closed at 25 dollars or 1.12 percent at 2,262 dollars per ton. Analysts estimated that Cocoa futures' price to hereinafter potentially powerful trading with US dollar's weakening. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2,310 dollar.
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The price of CPO in Malaysia commodity exchanges observed weak. A drop in CPO prices this afternoon triggered strengthening Ringgit exchange rate against US dollar and also of course a weaker crude oil prices. On this afternoon exchange rate of US dollar-ringgit pair, fall down around 0.3% at 4.4745. Strengthening Ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for overseas buyers so demand decreases. The price triggered by negative sentiment which makes CPO price fall further. The weakening in crude oil prices make alternative fuels such as those made of CPO declined his request. CPO price most active contract on Malaysia bourse today seems to weaken contract in March 2017 which is the most active contract ringgit depreciated by 1.5 percent and traded at 3,049 ringgit per tonne right now. Analysts estimated that CPO futures price for the next trading session may decline with the potential for strengthening ringgit. Price movements can also be affected by movements in crude oil prices, global demand and supply conditions.
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Crude oil prices move weaker on Asia session on Friday after gaining nearly 1 percent the previous day on news that Saudi Arabia has cut production to meet OPEC agreement to cut production. WTI for February delivery fell about 0.28 percent, to $ 53.61 a barrel, after closing up at 50 cents on Thursday. For the week, the contracts tend to be mostly stable. The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery fell 19 cents, or 0.33 percent, to $ 56.70 per barrel. Saudi Arabia has limited oil production in January by at least 486,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.058 million barrels per day, OPEC fully implement an agreement to slow production, according to sources familiar with the Gulf of Saudi oil policy. But the price of re-move weaker as investors refocused on data showing a surprisingly large increase in US inventories of gasoline and distillate. Gasoline inventories rose 8.3 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 1.8 million barrels. Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 10.1 million barrels, compared to expectations for a rise of 1.1 million barrels, the EIA data showed. US gasoline prices fell about 0.6 percent on Thursday. Analysts estimated that Crude Oil price will be weaker with increasing fuel and distillate inventories. But if US dollar continues to continue weakening and optimism increased production cuts, will lift crude oil prices. Crude oil prices are expected to move in the support range between $ 53.10 and $ 52.60
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trade on Friday morning finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the by weakening of US Dollar. US dollar extended losses against a basket of six major currencies after data showed US private employers added 153,000 jobs. The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract in March 2017 rise to around 1.4375 dollars, a rise of 1.95 cents, equivalent to 1.38 per cent. Analysts predicted that Arabica coffee futures for the next session may rise because of the US Dollar's weakness. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.4700 dollars and 1.5000 dollars.
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Crude oil prices slumped on Asia session, hit by doubts that producers will fully deliver on its promises to cut production, even though the US auto sales hit a record and crude oil inventories fell offer the market some support. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded down 7 cents, or 0.13 percent, at $ 53.19 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures price of international benchmark for oil prices, traded at $ 56.33 a barrel, down 13 cents, or 0.23 percent. Traders said the decline came on the back of concerns about whether the plan by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other leading manufacturers to cut crude supplies will be fully implemented. In a note to clients on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs said "the oil market outlook in early 2017 will be driven by cuts OPEC and non-OPEC" and expected "the price of Brent reached a peak at $ 59 per barrel" in mid-2017. In the United States, crude oil prices were stronger than in the international market, supported by strong vehicle sales and crude oil stockpiles fell statements commercially. Analysts estimated that Crude Oil price wil be weak with a doubt of cutting production. But if tonight the weekly US crude inventories fell realized, will raise the price of crude oil. Crude oil prices are expected to move in a range Resistance between $ 53.70 and $ 54.20.