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myregister
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Price of cocoa futures in late trade on Friday morning (27/01) was closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered by the strengthening US dollar. The US dollar rebounded from a seven-week low optimism influences the economic and earnings outlook for US companies A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in March 2017 closed slump. Commodity prices fell by 2.74 percent at 2,132 dollars per ton. Analysts estimated that Cocoa futures for the next session will move in a limited tendency to strengthen the weakening US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2,180 dollar.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices on the trading session Friday afternoon (27/01) was observed to rise. Prices of natural rubber futures for the most active contract, namely in June 2017 helped to strengthen the yen weakened. Observed that Japanese Yen weakened. USDJPY traded higher 0.30 percent at 114.92. This means weaker yen makes Tocom futures price of natural rubber rose. For overseas buyers with a weakening yen makes commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper, so the demand has increased. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract, namely to contract on June 2017 moved up 15.3 yen or 4.9 percent at 327.90 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing at 312.60 yen per kilogram. For the next trading session price is expected to meet the resistance level at around 333.00 yen . No further resistance and price may rise at around 338.00 yen. Meanwhile if lower prices will find support level between 323.00 yen and 318.00 yen. -
On European session the pound exchange rate movements weakened against the US dollar after opening flat at around 1.2598 in early trading (0000 GMT), the exchange rate for GBPUSD is now rolling at 1.2541 pounds. Profit taking happened after strengthening pound to seven week highs continues until the European trading session. Sentiment participating burdening rate pair is trading slump in stock markets European region. Technically GBPUSD is still declining towards the support range between 1.2505 -1.2420, but if it does not penetrate the correction will rise to resistance range between 1.2620 to 1.2665. And analysts suggests that GBPUSD is estimated to have the support level at 1.2421 and the resistance level at 1.2697.
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The movement of USDJPY on European session which rose after the price opened lower at around 114.51 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now USDJPY's price is at 115.12 and run through a range of strong resistance. The positive sentiment that could lift the Japanese yen inflation data reported that the Japanese government earlier on Asian session, but trimmed back by a strong US dollar bullish momentum weekend. Technically USDJPY is still able to rise up to the resistance range between 115.60-116.00. Throughout today analysts estimate that the normal range for USDJPY pair today will have the support level at 113.04 and the resistance level at 115.98 which is the last resistance.
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Until the early European session forex trading week (16/1) US dollar rebound effort put pressure on businesses continued to rally after EURUSD gains three consecutive days on last week's rally. EU naturally has a strong pressure after receiving negative sentiment from foreign trade balance report by Eurostat the Euro area Monday. Eurostat reported a trade surplus in November Euro area experienced an increase from the period of the previous month but still far from expectation. This release immediately triggered selling pressure after it was stronger by weakening sentiment stock market performance of the region. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, analysts exoected that EURUSD for the next session may rise once again towards the resistance range between 1.0645 - 1.0700 if there was correction this afternoon, then this pair will fall through the support range between 1.0566-1.0509.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading session ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed profit taking. Profit-taking occurred after the price of arabica coffee continued to post the positive results over the last four sessions recorded a rise of 4.66 percent. The increase is exploited for profit-taking traders. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract sank at 1.4930 dollars, down by 0.20 percent. Markets will watch the planned speech on Tuesday by British Prime Minister Theresa May whether the United Kingdom will take a soft or hard approach to Brexit. Fears Brexit will weaken pounds, and otherwise strengthen the US dollar. Analysts estimated that Arabica coffee futures will will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test the support level range between 1.4600 dollars and 1.4300 dollars.
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The movement of USDJPY on Asia session (11:00:25 GMT) is still weak even after the price actually opened lower at around 114.33 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is rolling at around 114.18. Yen in the end of Asia session still able to continue the rally since last week's trading by safe-haven sentiment post news British PM to announce the release of the country from the European Union. Technically USDJPY attempted to climb against its resistance between 114.62-114.94, and if it is not transparent may fall back towards the support range between 113.80-113.44. Throughout today analysts estimate that the normal range for USDJPY pair today will have the support level at 112.77 and the resistance level at 115.91
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The price of CPO on Malaysia bourse rose on Monday afternoon (16/01). CPO price hike this afternoon after a decline of Indonesian CPO exports. Exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives Indonesia fell nearly 2 percent to 25.7 million tons in 2016 from 26.2 million tons in 2015. The CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges Malaysia today seems to have increased. April 2017 contract price which is the most active contract rose as much as 13 ringgit, or 0.4 percent and traded at 3,096 ringgit per tonne. For this week's Malaysian market CPO price rose 1.5 percent, largely supported the surge in crude oil prices, the increase in US soybean oil and the weakening ringgit. Analysts estimated that CPO futures price for the next session potentially strengthened by Indonesia's exports. CPO futures contract prices on Malaysia commodity exchanges has the potential to test the resistance level at 3,150 ringgit and 3,200 ringgit.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Tocom rubber prices on the trading session Monday afternoon finished up. Natural rubber futures prices for the most-active contract gained ie June 2017 triggered a decline in rubber production. Global natural rubber production is likely to fall in the first quarter of 2017 due to floods had disrupted tapping in top producer Thailand, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) said. Production for the period is expected to fall 0.8 percent from a year ago to 2.44 million tonnes. Worrying for decline in production is still going on with the flood in Thailand. Southern Thailand has suffered flooding since January 1, causing widespread flooding that has killed 36 people. World rubber prices have soared amid concerns about the impact on production. Natural rubber prices in Tocom for the most active contract, namely a contract on June 2017 increased by 11.5 yen or 3.9 percent at 305.00 yen per kilogram, an increase compared to the previous closing at 293.50 yen per kilogram. Analysts estimated that Tocom Rubber price for the next trade session has chance to rise since there is declining inventories in Thaildand and India. But today they will weaken if Yen continues to strengthen. For the next trading session price is expected to meet the resistance at 310.00 yen. -
Gold price movements of the European session (13:00:35 GMT) rallied after the price of this commodity opened higher at around 1194.22 in early trading (0000 GMT), now the price of gold is still rolling at 1203.10. Gold prices on Asia session was hit by a strong US bond yields weekend, but rose back to penetrate the strong resistance by the poor sentiment trading stock markets in Asia. Generally, it seems that Gold has bigger chance to rise towards the resistance range between 1211.05-1217,00. So many analysts suggested that the normal range for XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1183.88 and resistance level at 1211.20.
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Cocoa futures on ICE Futures trading late weekend early Saturday (14/01) was closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices occurred after the agreement signed between the government of Ivory Coast with a group of rebel soldiers linked bonus payments. Disgruntled soldiers in Ivory Coast reached an agreement with the government Friday to resolve the dispute in bonus payments that had threatened to reignite national army mutiny, a negotiator for the rebels said. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in March 2017 which is the most active contract was observed to be closed down. Commodity prices closed down by -17 dollars, or -0.76 percent at 2,213 dollars per ton. For weekly price of cocoa fell around 2.12 percent, largely triggered by easing unrest in Ivory Coast last weekend and increased production in the Ivory Coast. Analysts estimated that Cocoa futures for the next session will weakening limited by strengthening trend of US Dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the support level at 2,160 dollar or even lower.
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ICE sugar futures prices closed down in late trade. The weakening commodity prices triggered by weaker crude oil prices. Traders anticipate that lower oil prices will encourage producers prefer to convert sugarcane into sugar cane than ethanol, so that the production of sugar increased and further depress sugar prices. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 observed decline. The price of sugar futures have closed the most active dipped by 1.16 percent at 20.52 cents per pound. Markets will watch the planned speech on Tuesday by British Prime Minister Theresa May whether the United Kingdom will take a soft or hard approach to Brexit. Fears Brexit will weaken pounds, and otherwise strengthen the US dollar. Analysts estimated that Raw sugar's price movement for the next session will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the support level between 20.00 cents and 19.50 cents.
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The price of tin on Malaysia Stock Exchange rose on Monday (16/01). The increase in the price of tin supported dollar weakness overnight. The US Dollar Index fell 0.17 percent on currency trading weekend. The weakening US dollar makes the price of tin is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges of Malaysia observed a rise today. The industrial metals prices traded at 21,100 dollars per ton, an increase of 150 dollars or 0.7 percent from its previous close at 20,950. Analysts estimated that Tin's price for the next session will weakening limited by the strengthening trend of US Dollar. For the prediction, it seems that the price will meet the support level range between 19,900 dollars and 19,700 dollars.
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Crude oil prices are flat on Monday (16/01), triggered by a weaker dollar and expectations that OPEC and other producers will cut production as part of a deal to curb global oversupply. But the increase in US crude oil production is still a threat of oil price hike. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2 cents, or 0.04 percent, to $ 52.35 per barrel. Brent crude futures traded at $ 55.47 per barrel, edged up 2 cents or 0.04 percent from the last closing them. Traders said that prices were supported by a weaker dollar, which makes purchasing cheaper fuel for countries that use other currencies in the country, has the potential to spur demand. After spending most of the second half of 2016, the dollar has fallen about 2.5 percent against a basket of other major currencies since early January peak. Oil also continued to receive support from crude oil production cuts from major producers including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia. OPEC has said it would reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day from January 1, and Russia as well as members of other non-OPEC plans to cut about half as much. However, there are wide expectations that OPEC would not fully implement the cuts were announced, although the estimated 50 to 80 percent compliance is enough to keep crude oil prices supported in the mid $50 per barrel, traders said. Analysts estimated that Crude Oil price will examine the implementation of the agreement to cut output by OPEC and non-OPEC, in case of cuts will raise the price and vice versa. But the increase in crude oil production is estimated to depress crude oil prices further. Crude oil prices are expected to move inside the Support range between $ 51.90 and $ 51.40
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In late trading the weekend early Saturday (16/01), Rotterdam Coal price ended weake because depressed by crude oil prices which is declining. Crude oil prices slumped on late trading and recorded its first weekly loss in five weeks triggered doubts on the implementation of OPEC production cuts. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract which is a contract in February 2017 dropped towards 84.90 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 0.40 dollars, equivalent to 0.47 percent compared to the previous closing. Analysts estimated that Coal futures price for the next session potentially have chance to weakening further with the strengthening US Dollar. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 84.40 dollars and even to the next support at 83.90 dollars.
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The price of Tin on Malaysia Stock Exchange fell in trading Friday (1/13). Falling prices depressed by weakening Chinese import. This morning released the Chinese imports in December 2016 rise 3.1 percent, down from 6.7 percent growth in Chinese imports November The price of tin in Malaysia commodity exchanges ended down today thanks for that reduced growth. The industrial metals prices traded at 20,950 dollars per tonne, down by -150 dollars or 0.7 percent from its previous close at 21,100. Analysts estimated that Tin futures price on Malaysia bourse exchange for the next trading session will have bigger potential to move weaker than anticipated if US dollar rose realized. Price will face support level at 20,750 dollars and 20 550 dollars.
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In late trading Friday morning (13/01), Rotterdam coal price rises pushed higher crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rose for a second day at the end of trade on Friday morning (13/01), supported by reports that OPEC members began cutting production and forecast strong demand growth in China. At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract on February 2017 ended at 85.30 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened by 2.05 dollars or equivalent to 2.46 percent compared to the previous closing. Many analysts estimated that Coal futures price for the next trading session potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of coal futures could potentially test support level at 84.80 dollars and 84.30 dollars.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trade on Friday morning (13.01) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar. The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in March 2017 closed up at 1.4960 dollar positions, rose 0.60 cents, equivalent to 0.40 percent. Tonight will be released the data retail sales in December and January US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which both indicated increased. If realized the potential to strengthen the US dollar. Analysts estimated the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test support at 1.4700 dollars and 1.4400 dollars.
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Gold price movements on Europen session rebounded again after the price opened lower at around 1194.22 in early trading (0000 GMT), now the price of gold is still rolling at around 1196.74. Gold rose back on early Europe session to respond to the poor majority of Asian stocks trading sentiment triggered safe-haven trade. The above condition is triggered by poor Chinese trade balance data that causes their trade surplus decreased. Technically, gold prices will continue to rise towards the resistance range between 1200.00-1205.58, but if it is failed will fall towards the support at 1190.38-1180.85. So XAUUSD today is expected to have the support level at 1172.83 and resistance level at 1211.20.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Natural rubber prices Tocom futures trading on Friday afternoon ended down. Weakening Tocom rubber prices triggered by profit-taking after prices reach a level of 300 Tocom rubber. Benchmark Tokyo rubber futures extended gains to reach a near four-year highs on Thursday, achieving 300-yen / kg, due to concerns over supply from flooding in Thailand plus a rebound in oil prices provide support, dealers said. Thailand will lose about 10% of rubber production in the 2016-2017 crop after flooding happened in the main areas of developing countries, said a senior industry official said on Thursday. Southern Thailand has suffered flooding since January 1, causing widespread flooding that has killed 36 people. Profit taking also triggered poor Chinese import data. This morning released the Chinese imports in December 2016 bukukan rise 3.1 percent, down from growth of 6.7 percent in November. The weakening of the Chinese imports has prompted concern the decline in demand from China. Analysts estimated that Tocom Rubber futures price for the next trading session is projected to rise influenced by the weakening of Yen and the rise in crude oil. Commodity prices Tocom rubber futures exchange will test resistance level at 298.50 yen and 303.50 yen. -
The price of CPO observed an increment on Friday afternoon (01/13). CPO price hike this afternoon supported by the weakening ringgit and rising crude oil prices Asian session. Ringgit seems to weakened against the US dollar. The weakening ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so that demand is increasing. The increase in CPO prices also underpinned the rise in crude oil in the Asian trading session. CPO price most active contract on Malaysia bourse today seems to have increased. The contract price in March 2017 which is the most active contract rose as much as 26 ringgit, or 0.8 percent and traded at 3,142 ringgit per tonne. So many analysts estimated that CPO futures for the next session is potentially strengthened by the potential weakening ringgit and crude oil's bullish sentiment. CPO futures has the potential to test the resistance level at 3,190 ringgit and 3,240 ringgit.
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Sugar futures prices closed higher on the ICE Futures exchange trading late New York Friday morning (13/01). Commodity prices have strengthened supported by weakening US dollar and rising crude oil prices. The US dollar continue weakening after the press conference US President-elect Donald Trump, who did not discuss key policies such as fiscal stimulus. A weakening US dollar makes dollar-based commodities sugar became cheaper in other currencies. The increase in US crude oil prices also supported the price of sugar. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract on March 2017 was observed to rise. The price of sugar futures the most active closed up 0.20 cents, or equivalent to 0.97 percent at 20.76 cents per pound. Tonight will be released the data retail sales in December and January US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which both indicated increased. If realized the potential to strengthen the US dollar. Analysts estimated that Sugar futures price for subsequent trading sessionwith potentially weak against US Dollar as this currency is strengthening. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test support level at 20.30 cents and 19.80 cents.
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Price of cocoa futures in late trade on ICE futures closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered by a short covering merchant. Short covering occurs after cocoa prices fell in trading yesterday. Short covering also boosted the demand outlook by 18.7% rise in cocoa grinding Malaysia for fourth quarter 2016. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts for March 2017 which is the most active contract closed monitored by posting a sharp increase. The commodity price closed soared by 4.84 percent at 2,230 dollars per ton. Analysts estimated that Cocoa futures price hereinafter potentially weak by US Dollar which is strengthening further. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the support level at 2,180 dollars.
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Tin's price on Malaysia Stock Exchange bourse stabilized in three consecutive sessions on Thursday (12/01). The stable price of tin with investors after a speech by President-elect Donald Trump last night still beyond market expectations. The market expects the first official press conference before Trump sworn in as president, can provide guidance and an overview of the fiscal stimulus plan and other major economies. But apparently it is not discussed. The price of tin in Malaysia commodity exchanges observed a stable movement today. The industrial metals prices traded at 21,100 dollars per ton, the same as the previous close at 21,100. Analysts estimated that Tin's price at the next trade will move up with the weakening US dollar. Price will face the resistance level at 21,300 dollars and 21,500 dollars.
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The price of sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York ended up triggered by decline in global production. Estimated production of India has gone down because of the rainy weather was bad and now there are reports that the factories were to close early because there is no cane to be processed. News wire reported that the Thai plant may continue to circulate smaller. Brazilian producers did not sell and the wait-and-see attitude of their production potential. Stay dry in the northeast of Brazil and turned dry again at the center of the southern region. Less than expected demand and the potential to increase production, mostly from Brazil, in the next few months is a major negative factor. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 was observed to increase. The price of sugar futures the most active closed up by around 0.08 cents, or equivalent to 0.39 percent at 20.56 cents per pound. Analysts estimated that for the next trading session Sugar futures price may potentially strengthening with the support of weakening US Dollar. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 21.00 cents and 21.50 cents.
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