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myregister
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In late trading Friday morning (03/03), Rotterdam ended weaker coal prices depressed by crude oil prices which was declining. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in April 2017 slumped towards 75.00 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 1.12 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be observed speech the Fed chairman Janet Yellen and other Fed officials are expected to provide strengthening expectations of rising US interest rates, which will be able to strengthen the US dollar. Analysts estimated that Coal futures for the next session may fall down by the strengthening US dollar. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 74.50 dollar and if able to break it may rise further.
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The price of Arabica Coffee Futures on ICE Futures exchange Friday morning (03/03) ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed the strengthening of the US dollar. The increase of US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed in May 2017 slump in the position of 1.4435 dollars, down by -0.45 cents or equal to -0.31 percent. Tonight will be observed speech the Fed chairman Janet Yellen and other Fed officials are expected to provide strengthening expectations of rising US interest rates. Analysts estimated that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures has the potential to test the support level at 1.4100 dollar.
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Cocoa futures in late trade on Friday morning (03/03) closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered bargain hunting investors. Bargain hunting going on after cocoa prices continue to weaken for four consecutive days this week. Even during the month of February, the price of cocoa fell 9 percent. Cheapening the price of cocoa used traders to take action to buy. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in May 2017 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 1.63 percent at 1,928 dollars per ton. Likewise, the still abundant supply of cocoa in major producing countries in West Africa, is still a bearish sentiment for the price of cocoa. Cocoa futures hereinafter potentially weak trading with the US dollar strengthening and buildup of supply. For the next trading price of cocoa futures has the potential to penetrate the support level at 1,880 dollar
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Gold prices slumped weakest since December at the end of trade on Friday morning (03/03) strengthening US dollar pressured by rising expectations of US rate hike in March following positive US economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. LLG Spot gold prices fell 1.39 percent at $ 1,231.56 per ounce, on track for its biggest daily fall of since December 15. US gold futures prices ended 1.45 percent weaker at $ 1,231.90. Futures for April delivery ended at $ 1,232.90, down $ 17.10. Gold hit after data on Thursday showed US jobless claims fell to the lowest level in 44 years. Tightening labor, combined with rising inflation, could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its policy meeting March 14 to 15. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak on Friday, the possibility of providing further signals on the US central bank's policy. ABN Amro raised the gold price forecast end of 2017 for $ 200 to $ 1,300 on Thursday, but said prices will likely consolidate until turned higher at the end of the year. Analysts estimated that the price of gold may weaken limited by strengthening expectations of a US interest rate hike this March. The gold price is expected to move within the supoprt range between $ 1.230 - $ 1.228
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The price of sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York Friday morning (03/03) ended up triggered an increase in the deficit of production in India. In late February, the Indian sugar deficit increased to 18.54% from about 15% in mid-February, the agency said Indian Sugar Mills Association (IMSA) in a release. At the close of trading early this morning the price of sugar futures for the most active contract is a contract in May 2017 was observed to increase. The most active price of sugar futures have closed jumped by 0.92 percent at 19.66 cents per pound. Analysts estimated that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade will weaken the US dollar strengthening. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the support level at 19.20 cents and 18.70 cents.
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Crude oil prices rose on Friday (03/03) as the dollar began to back away from multi-week highs, but prices are still restricted sentiment that Russian oil production unchanged for February, signaling a weak adherence to a global deal to cut supplie. The dollar slipped from a seven-week highs against a basket of currencies. WTI crude oil futures prices rose 0.17 percent, to $ 52.70 a barrel after falling on Thursday to its lowest level since February 9. Brent crude futures rose 10 cents, or 0.18 percent, to $ 55.18 per barrel. Russian oil production in February unchanged from January at 11.11 million barrels per day (bpd), energy ministry data showed, with the cutting of the level of October 2016 remains at 100,000 barrels per day or one third of what was promised by Moscow under an agreement with the Organization Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC). Official US data also showed that crude oil inventories in the world's biggest oil consumer rose for the eighth consecutive week to a record 520.2 million barrels last week. But even as US oil production rose and Russian production steady, OPEC boosted by strong adherence to the agreement of the group six months to 94 percent, with the reduction in production for a second month in February, a Reuters survey stated. It estimated that Crude oil prices for the next session trade may rise if the US dollar continues to weaken. Likewise, if a higher compliance sentiment came to OPEC production cuts, will raise the price.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Australia Dollar against US dollar continued to worsen over the Asia session trading on Friday (3/3) after a previous drop is severe enough to down 1.6% by a lot of sentiment. Negative sentiment has continued and increased after the release of data Caixin Chinese non-manufacturing PMI declined from the previous hike expectations. Previous negative sentiment apart from the momentum of a strong dollar rally too poor January trade balance data and the drop in crude oil prices were significant enough to make them join the leading commodity prices plummeted. Negative sentiment of the release of Chinese economic data is very strong that the rebound in crude oil prices was not able to reverse the losses suffered AUDUSD pair. Besides the pressure of such sentiments make aussie plunged to its lowest in more than one month against the US dollar. For further trade, if crude prices rallied strongly, the negative sentiment from the data of China can not continue in the European session and also America tonight. -
The movement of USDJPY on European session (14:00:35) are still bearish move after opening higher at 114.39 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is down in the position of 114.20. Technically, the USDJPY pair will rise to around 114.55 during the American session because of bullish sentiment since some fundamental data on USD are expected to rise like non PMI. Throughout today many analysts see that normal range between USDJPY is estimated to have support level at around 112.39 and resistance at 116.03.
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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Profit taking done to US dollar dropped from its highest level in eight weeks since the Asia session continues until the weekend of the Europe session trading on Friday with a waiting position signal further Fed rate hikes from the Fed commented President and other high officials. In US session, there are several events scheduled Janet Yellen and three other Fed officials delivered a speech, in which the market expects further continued hawkish signal. Previous half the official FOMC has signaled that hawkish Fed will hike rates at their meeting this month. Against its main rivals, the US dollar was observed only strong against the Australian Dollar and Pund by weak fundamentals . Aussie tumbled by poor sentiment data releases Chinese businesses and weakening commodity prices, while still around Brexit pounds. The dollar index which shows the strength of the US dollar against many of its main rivals in the middle of the Europe session at 102.08 after opening at 102.13 and the position had touched highs at 102.18 and the lowest at 101.97. -
Sterling trading against the US dollar experienced its worst loss since the trade date of January 17, 2017 with bearish positions for sixth consecutive day. Weak movement of GBPUSD this afternoon received a very strong negative sentiment after the release of the data service PMI. Reported Markit data showed worse than the previous period and the expectations for a decline. Markit reported period between February and as a result the British pound under pressure so this week. With the latest pair GBPUSD position confirmed this week re-print weekly attenuation. In addition to speculation sentiment Scotland out of Britain which affect this pair quite much, GBPUSD is under pressure from global market sentiment will address US policy and budget administration by President Trump before Congress. For the next trade until the close of trading ending of American session tomorrow morning, analysts estimated that GBUSD for that session may continue to rise towards the resistance range between 1.2208-1.2180.
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Even if the positive sentiment was giving strength to rise dollars on US session, but several of its main rivals was able to stand strong and move the rally. One of which euro which has a weak driving sentiment since the beginning of the European session of the few economic data releases. From the beginning of the European session, there are some economic data which has been released such as performance data business services sector some Euro area member states, then there are German retail sales data and a region which is also disappointing. The data indicated the majority of the negative sentiment. Global financial markets are waiting for the signal expectations of a Fed rate hike at the meeting in March after several senior officials of the central bank has given the hawkish comments last few days. If Janet Yellen hawkish speech, rally strength EURUSD will be trimmed. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, EURUSD has chance to fall back to 1,0557-1.0490.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Natural rubber prices Tocom futures trading on Friday afternoon (03/03) ended down. Weakening Tocom rubber prices triggered by a strong yen and slowing growth in China's services. The increase in the exchange rate of the Japanese yen also makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for overseas buyers. The impact demand for these commodities declined. In afternoon trading, the price of rubber futures for the most active contract on the Tokyo commodity exchange is a contract in August 2017 which ended lower by 0.7 percent to 272.9 yen per kilogram, down from its previous close at 274, 7 yen per kilogram. Analysts estimated that the price movement Tocom rubber futures at the next trade is potentially affected by the natural pressure of the strengthening Japanese yen. Tocom rubber futures exchange will test the support level at 268.00 yen and 263.00 yen -
The price of CPO on Friday afternoon (03/03) is sluggish. CPO price this evening triggered by a slowdown in China's growth in the services sector. Slowing growth in China's services sector, providing a negative sentiment for demand from China. China's service sector growth was at the slowest pace in four months in February, with new business is still growing at a solid rate but increasing competition is making it difficult for companies to raise prices, according to a private survey showed on Friday (03/03). CPO price most active contract on the commodity exchanges today seems weakened. The contract price on May 2017 which is the most active contract fell by around 20 ringgit or 0.7 percent and traded at 2,842 ringgit per tonne. The estimation of CPO futures is the price movement for the next session may fall once again especially since China's data is weakening now. Price movements can also be affected by currency movements Ringgit this day.
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The price of tin in Malaysia Stock Exchange fell. A weaker tin prices is depressed because of the US dollar rise overnight. The increase of US dollar makes US dollar-denominated price of tin to be expensive so the demand is getting stronger. The price of tin observed a weakening today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19,500 dollars per tonne, down by 50 dollars, or 0.3 percent from its previous close at 19 550. Tonight, there will Speech by Fed chairman Janet Yellen and other Fed officials which are expected to provide strengthening expectations of rising US interest rates. Tonight, it is estimated that Tin futures price for the next session will weaken limited by the strengthening US dollar. Price will face the support level at 19,300 dollars and 19,100 dollars.
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US crude oil prices climbed higher for a second day on Tuesday (28/02) in the Asian session, supported by a high compliance within OPEC production cuts despite an increase in US production still continues to limit price increases. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has so far surprised markets by showing a record of compliance with production cuts, and could increase in the coming months with a member who has been slow as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq pledged to catch up quickly with their targets. Crude futures West Texas Intermediate rose 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $ 54.16 per barrel. While the price of Brent crude oil futures added 18 cents, or 0.32 percent, to $ 56.11 per barrel. For this month, US crude oil rose 2.6 percent after falling in January, while Brent oil has risen slightly. By agreement, OPEC agreed to curb output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January 1, the first cut in eight years. Russian and 10 non-OPEC producers agreed to cut by about half. US manufacturers boost crude output to more than 9 million barrels per day during the week ended February 17 for the first time since April 2016 as energy companies look for more oil, according to federal data. US drillers added five oil refineries in the week to February 24, bringing the total number of 602, the highest since October 2015, the energy services company Baker Hughes on Friday. Analysts estimated that crude oil prices for the next trading optimism may rise if production cuts continue to rise. But the increase in US production still looming price increases. Crude oil prices potentially move in the resistance range between $ 54.70- $ 55.20.
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Natural Rubber Fundamental Daily Analysis
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Natural rubber prices on Tuesday afternoon (28/02) ended down. Tocom rubber prices triggered weakening the yen's rise. USDJPY exchange rate fell about 0.3 percent in 112.39. The increase in the exchange rate of the Japanese yen makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for overseas buyers. The impact demand for these commodities declined. In afternoon trading, the price of rubber futures for the most active contract on the Tokyo commodity exchange is a contract ono August 2017 ended lower by 1.3 percent to 266.4 yen per kilogram. Analysts estimated the price movement of rubber futures at the next trade is potentially affected by the natural pressure of the strengthening Japanese yen. Commodity prices will test the support level at 261.00 yen and 256.00 yen. -
The price of CPO on Malaysia commodity exchanges observed moving flat on Tuesday afternoon (28/02). CPO price hike this afternoon supported Ringgit thin down and a slight increase in crude oil prices Asian session. USDMYR seems rise about 0.2 percent at 4.4455. The weakening ringgit makes the price of commodities traded in the currency has become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers so that demand is increasing. The increase in CPO prices also underpinned the rise in crude oil in the Asian trading session. Analysts estimated that the price movement of CPO futures for the next trade potentially strengthened by the potential weakening ringgit and the increase in crude oil. CPO futures contract prices has the potential to test the resistance level at 3,000 ringgit and 3,050 ringgit.
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Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.
myregister replied to myregister's topic in Fundametal Analysis
Australian dollar has a strong rebound after the previous trading day dropped two straight trimmed back by crude oil prices which is fell. The strength of the rebound earlier in the session received support from the Australian data releases current account deficit decreased. It is also the power of AUDUSD pair received a positive sentiment from Australia Q4-2016 release of GDP data will be released tomorrow (1/3). The current account data add strength to the positive sentiment. For the next trading, the negative sentiment seems to force a decline of AUDUSD. Moreover, during the American session the US dollar tonight is expected to be lifted by the strength of the Prelim GDP data release as well as policy speech of US President before the US Congress. -
The price of tin on Malaysia Stock Exchange fell. A weaker tin prices depressed by a profit taking. Profit-taking occurred after yesterday's trading price of tin surged by about 2 percent, so investors take advantage of the increase is for the taking. The price of tin on the commodity exchanges observed a weakening Malaysia today. The industrial metals prices traded at 19 180 dollars per ton, down $ 250 dollars, or 1.3 percent from its previous close at 19 430. Tonight will be released Q4 GDP Growth Rate indicated decreases. If realized decline, the US dollar will weaken. Analysts estimated that the price of Tin futures for the next session may fall rise higher by its potential tahnks to weaker US Dollar. Price will face the resistance level at 19,400 dollars and 19,600 dollars.
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Gold prices recovered in late trading Tuesday morning (28/02) after dipping earlier in response to comments Robert Kaplan who expect a hike in US interest rates sooner, but wait speech Trump and European political uncertainty offset the bearish sentiment. Kaplan, member voting on the Fed's policy committee, reiterated his view that a rate hike should be faster. The Fed is scheduled to hold the next monetary policy meeting on March 14 with the possibility of higher interest rates high enough to keep investors interested. Market expectations for a rate hike in March about 50 percent, according to Fed funds futures. LLG spot gold price was up 0.03 percent at $ 1,256.95 per ounce. metal hit its highest since Nov. 11 at $ 1,260.10 in the previous session. US gold futures prices rose 50 cents to settle at $ 1,258.80. Investors were also awaiting details of the policies of President Donald Trump. What Trump convey might be important for the gold. If Trump announced significant fiscal easing, which would increase inflation expectations and caused investors to look for gold. The US central bank meets March 14 to 15, although most of the increase in interest rates is expected to be postponed until the June meeting. Bets on higher prices can be seen in the data from the CFTC showed hedge funds and money managers hold net long positions in COMEX larger gold hit its highest in nearly three months in the week to February 21. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, also rose more than 5 percent this month. So the estimation that the price of gold could potentially weak with the strength of Wall Street. The gold price is expected to move within the support range between $ 1.255 - $ 1.253
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In the middle of the European session forex trading (28/2),Yen remained on track sentiment rebounded strongly by safe-haven trading market will respond to concerns of the political conditions such as the European region in France and the UK. Consideration of these conditions make the market take off back in the US dollar tried to rally. For the catalysts driving USDJPY pair on Asian session there is a release of mixed data from the Japanese economic reports such as reports prelim industrial production and retail sales data also strengthening. The most powerful support came from momentum lift yen profit taking US dollars. For the next trade until the American session tonight, US dollar is still trying to move bullish sentiment budget that will be presented before the US Congress Donald Trump so USDJPY pair has the potential to continue decline towards the support range between 111.94-111.40.
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At the end of trading on Tuesday morning (28/02), Coal prices triggered by the declining demand for coal in China. Preliminary data released by the National Statistical Bureau show that coal consumption fell 4.7 percent. Biro said the share of coal in total energy consumption mix of China fell to 62 percent in 2016 from 64 percent the previous year. China is the world's largest consumer of coal, consumption levels have declined as economic growth slowed to its lowest level since 1990. The country also aims to reduce the use of coal in favor of natural gas and renewable energy. Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 slump towards 78.65 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 1.50 percent compared to the previous closing. So it seems that Coal futures price on the next trade is projected to rise considering that US dollar weakness also plays some part. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 79.15 dollars and 79.65 dollars.
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The price of sugar futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures US in New York early Tuesday morning (28/02) ended sharply lower production triggered by the projected increase in Brazil. Commonwealth Bank analyst expressed a consensus states that southern Brazil will produce additional 35 million tonnes of sugar in summer 2017. It will be enough to keep the stock market well. Tropical Research Services (TRS) said in a report on Monday the weather in South-Central Brazil has been profitable since December and the increase in area harvested. TRS raised its forecast for the 2017/18 sugar production in the Center-South of Brazil to 35.7 million tonnes from a previous projection of 35.5 million Analysts estimated that the price movements of raw sugar futures in New York at the next trade have limited strengthening movement by the weakening US dollar. Prices of raw sugar futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 19.65 cents and 20.15 cents.
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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading slumped. The weakening of arabica coffee prices continue weakening as the reduction occurred following the drop in prices of robusta coffee. Robusta coffee weakened due to a technical selloff said one trader, adding that the price reached at the recent low $ 2,116 has also triggered long liquidation. Dealers noted speculative net long positions of coffee remains large despite the modest decrease in the week to February 21, raising the prospect that prices may have the potential to fall back further. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down at around 1.4110 dollars, fall down by 5.15 cents or equal to 3.52 percent. Tonight will be released Q4 GDP Growth Rate indicated decreases. If realized decline, the US dollar will weaken. Analysts estimated Coffee futures on ICE for the next session has limited strengtheing trend thanks to weakening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.4400 dollar and 1.4700 dollar.
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Cocoa futures on ICE at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (28/02) was closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered by the good weather in the Ivory Coast are on the positive sentiment increased production. A good rain in the last week in most major regions Ivory Coast cocoa crop is a positive sign for the development of the mid-crop but hot weather can hit, farmers said on Monday. At the end of trading early this morning Cocoa futures contracts in May 2017 which is the most active contract slumped. Price closed down by 0.60 percent at 1,982 dollars per ton. Analysts estimated Cocoa futures for the next trading session will likely strengthen further limited by the weaker US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2,030 dollar.