Exchange Blog Cryptocurrency Blog
-
Posts
1,886 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Everything posted by HFM
-
Date : 11th February 2022. Market Update – February 11 – USD on bid as equities crushed. LONDON The markets were crushed, and especially bonds, as a hotter than expected CPI and hawkish comments from Bullard weighed heavily on the markets. The 7.5% y/y pace of CPI, a 40-year high, boosted concerns that the FOMC will have to take a more aggressive stance on rate hikes and tightening down the road. But the nail in the coffin were comments from the Fed hawk Bullard who said he now advocated for a half point rate increase in March and 100 bps of tightening over the first half of the year. The UK economy grew by 7.5% last year despite Omicron causing slowdown. Treasury yields soared with the 10-year cheapening through the 2.0% level for the first time since July 31, 2019. Wall Street was hammered too and the major indexes plunged on the day. USD (USDIndex rallied to 96.00). US Yields sharply higher, spiked further, leaving the 2-year rate up 25 bps to 1.579% – biggest single daily move since June 2009 and the great financial crash. The 10-year was up 10 bps at 2.029%, closing with a 2% handle for the first time since July 31, 2019. Equities were led by the -2.10% drop in the USA100, while the USA500 was -1.81% lower, with the USA30 down -1.47%. Tech stocks have been hit by the prospect of accelerated Fed hikes and GER30 and UK100 are currently down -1.3% and -1.0%. Earnings: Affirm stock dropped 21%. Twitter unchanged, as Twitter’s mixed fourth quarter shows its challenges ahead, PepsiCo down by 2.1%, beat earnings but warns on costs while full-year outlook fell short. Disney 3.50% up, shows rebound in Disney+ & Parks businesses. USOil – at $88.00 following a spike at 90.60. Gold – down to $1820.90. Bitcoin settled to $43,000 – 44,000 area. FX markets – USD on bid as yields spiked and USDJPY jumped to 116.32, although the Yen strengthened against most other currencies as risk appetite waned. AUD and NZD drifted. EURUSD declined to 1.1370 & Cable down to 1.3512. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -23 ticks, but the 30-year future has rallied and US futures have found a footing. So there are some signs of stabilisation at least at the long end. EGBs sold off yesterday in the wake of the higher than expected inflation print, and while the UK curve shifted higher across the board, thanks to Lane’s dovish comments on the policy outlook, the short end outperformed in the Eurozone and the curve steepened as the long end sold off, with Italian BTPs once again hit most. Today – Today’s calendar is light, with just the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index due. Today’s earnings calendar features reports from Enbridge, Dominion Energy, Magna International, and Fortis. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.58%) – Dipped to 0.7110 on USD strength. Fast MAs currently flat, as MACD signal line & histogram extend southwards and RSI at 36, indicating near term consolidation and overall pressure. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 10th February 2022. Market Update – February 10 – Its Inflation day. The CPI report is anxiously awaited and the markets are priced for a bearish outcome. Indeed, stocks and bonds have sold off so hard this month that risk is for dip buying after the result. Wall Street posted solid gains again Wednesday as investor sentiment has improved with good earnings reports and expectations for some normalcy as covid mandates are being unwound. Treasuries have rallied as jitters regarding an overly hawkish FOMC have eased. Recent Fedspeak downplaying the likelihood of aggressive Fed action helped soothe investor jitters. USD (USDIndex 95.50). US Yields richened, led by the long end, especially after a stellar 10-year auction. The yield tested 1.93%. The 2-year pared its early rally and was unchanged at 1.344% into the close after sliding to 1.313%. Megacap growth stocks powered up due to a pause in rising interest rates while upbeat earnings reports also encouraged investors to buy. Equities – USA100 paced the gains on Wall Street, with a 2.08% surge, with the USA500 up 1.45% as all 11 sectors were in the green. The USA30 was up 0.861%. Reuters: Asian equities in January received the biggest upgrade in their forward 12-month earnings estimates in five months, boosted by higher commodity prices and demand for technology exports in the region. – 55% of the region’s large- and mid-cap Asian companies have beaten the average earnings forecasts by analysts, while 58.1% of the companies topped the estimates in the third quarter. USOil – steady at $88.70. Gold – at $1835.70 – soft dollar and lower bond yields. Bitcoin settled to$43,000 -44,000 area. FX markets – EURUSD narrowing to 1.1420, USDJPY spiked to 115.69 & Cable up to 1.3539 from 1.3525. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -4 ticks at 165.82, while in cash markets Treasuries have remained supported overnight, although yields have moved up from session lows going into the European morning. Asian stocks have traded narrowly mixed. That also holds for Europe, where yields have jumped sharply since the central bank meetings last week, forcing central bankers to warn against overcorrections and big policy moves, A number of speakers from both BoE and ECB are scheduled to speak today. Today – As noted, the January CPI features today. Initial jobless claims are also due today. The January Treasury budget is also on tap. The Treasury auctions $23 bln of 30-year bonds, and announces 20-year bonds and 30-year TIPS. For Fedspeak, Barkin is on deck. Today’s earnings calendar features reports from Coca Cola, Pepsico, Astrazeneca, Philip Morris, Duke Energy, Moody’s, Global Payments, DexCom, Republic Services, TELUS, Twitter, VeriSign, PG&E, Martin Marietta, Kellogg, SS&C Technologies, Zillow, and Aegon. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.28%) The Aussie and Kiwi dollars were trading near multi-week highs as investors turned more bullish on risk assets such as equities. Fast MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram extend northwards and RSI is retesting 70 areas. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 9th February 2022. Market Update – February 9 – Stocks Boosts The Risk Taking Mood. The markets continue to gyrate wildly amid numerous crosscurrents. Inflation jitters, central bank tightening worries, supply, weakness in EGBs, and strength in risk appetite all weighed heavily on Treasuries. On other occasions, dip buying and geopolitical risks have supported bonds. Meanwhile, Wall Street rallied Tuesday on improving expectations on growth as covid restrictions are eased. Data included marginal widening in the December trade deficit, and declines in both the NFIB small business optimism and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism indexes. USD (USDIndex 95.60) steady in a 3-day pattern. US Yields 10-year Treasury yield is down -2.2 bp, JGB rates have dropped back -0.4 bp. – Despite that, the Treasury’s $50 bln 3-year auction was surprisingly well received and stronger than expected, garnering record indirect demand. Equities – staged a broad rally with tech stocks in Hong Kong rebounding after yesterday’s sell off. Reports of a wave of interventions by state backed funds helped Chinese markets. Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied 1.97% and 1.07%. The JPN lifted 1.08% and the ASX 1.14%. USA30 & USA100 (+1%) recovered to 35700 and 14828 and USA500 was 0.84% in the green. GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 0.8%. Apple & Microsoft closed higher. USOil – extends declines to $87.40. Gold – at 1825 after reaching $1829 – Haven buying on geopolitical risks, which has supported on and off, provided little offset. Bitcoin settled to mid $43,000. FX markets – EURUSD narrowing to 1.1400, USDJPY up to 115.45 & Cable to 1.3537. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 32 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped back -2.2 bp. Bonds have found a footing for now and EGB yields are set to come off yesterday’s highs, but sentiment is likely to remain fickle ahead of US inflation data. In the Eurozone, markets will likely continue to test the ECB’s resolve, with the recent widening of spreads also reflecting speculation that the APP program could end early to pave the way for a rate hike in the third rather than the fourth quarter. Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to just EUR 6.8 bln in December in seasonally adjusted terms, as a 4.7% m/m jump in nominal imports far outweighed the 0.9% m/m rise in exports. Virus developments will have weighed on production and exports at the end of the year, while the spike in energy and other commodity prices pushed up the nominal import bill. So not a total surprise with the underlying export trend still robust, despite the drop in exports to the UK last year – thanks to Brexit. Today – Data is thin with just December wholesale data, but there is a heavy earnings slate today to provide a distraction. The slate includes Toyota, Walt Disney, CVS Health, GlaxoSmithKline, Equinor, CME Group, Uber, Honda, Manulife, Motorola, Twilio, IFF, Sun Life, Equifax, CDW, Seagen, Fox, Grab, MGM Resorts, and Arch Capital. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-0.56%) Retests 87.40 extending the decline from 91.70. Fast MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram extend southward s below 0 and RSI and Stochastic are at OS barrier. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 8th February 2022. Market Update – February 8 – USD rebounds ahead of US inflation. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Treasury yields were mixed inside a narrow range as the market consolidated, coming to grips with the hawkish stance from the FOMC and other core central banks, while they found some support from EGBs. ECB’s Lagarde stressed rate hikes will not begin until after asset purchases are ended. Trading was also slowed as the CPI report looms Thursday. The front end outperformed slightly as shorts covered, paring some of the selling from Friday. Wall Street was mixed and rather directionless, despite earnings. After finding a small bid into the afternoon, the indexes slumped into the close. Oil drops on progress in US-Iran talks. USD (USDIndex 95.61) steady. US Yields 2-year rate slid 2 bps to 1.288% after having surged to test 1.32% on Friday. However, the 10-year was fractionally underwater and rose to 1.945%, a new high since late 2019. Equities – USA500 ( -0.37%) 4487, USA100 (-0.58% )recovered to 14605. (Meta shares fell more than 5%, Peloton jumped over 20% on media reports of interest from potential buyers including Amazon, Tyson Foods firmed on upbeat quarterly results, Nvidia rose 1.7% ,Alibaba fell about 6% after it registered an additional 1 billion American depositary shares.) JPN225 and ASX are up 1.1% and 0.1%. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.1% and 0.2%. USOil – flattened around $90.00 amid concerns over tight supply. Gold – jumped to $1823 above 20-day SMA. Gold rose 1.2% last week and posted its strongest weekly gain since November. Yields have been ebbing from overnight highs, while the USD is a little weaker, to provide some support to gold. Geopolitical risks are also underpinning. Bitcoin extended to $45,485. – Bitcoin and the Australian Dollar had posted gains as equity markets rallied in Europe. FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1405, USDJPY up to 115.48 & Cable to 1.3520 Overnight – ASX outperforming, helped by a jump in iron ore prices, which boosted miners. Talk of more companies being added to the list of companies that may need extra permits to buy from US entities weighed on the Hang Seng in particular and the index is currently down -0.99%. WTO lets China impose $645 million tariffs on US. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down 8 ticks, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures, as yields continue to rise in cash markets. Lagarde failed to push back against speculation of an early end to net asset purchases and swift start to rate hikes yesterday and Eurozone peripherals in particular are likely to continue to struggle. Today – Today’s calendar is thin and should have no impact on expectations. The December trade report is due. The earnings calendar features reports from Pfizer, BP, S&P, Fiserv, Thomson Reuters, Coinbase, Centene, KKR, Chipotle, DuPont, Sysco, Yum! Brands, Transdigm, Cenovus Energy, Warner Music, FleetCor, Incyte, and FMC. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NDZJPY (+0.46%) Rallied to 76.75 retesting the 20 DMA for a 4th day. MAs aligned however started turning lower, MACD signal line & histogram levelling off but well over 0 line, RSI at 57 in a pullback. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 7th February 2022. Market Update – February 7 – “Good news is good news” eventually. A shockingly strong nonfarm payroll report knocked Treasuries for a loop. Global markets have been left reeling from the FOMC’s pivot, the BoE’s second rate hike and the aggressive voting pattern, as well as the hawkish shift from ECB Lagarde’s press conference. Wall Street turned mostly higher in afternoon trade. The market struggled early on following the stronger jobs report, which weighed on sentiment, in a case of good news is bad news for stocks (Fed rate hikes). Treasury yields jumped on the data as the headlines more than surprised even the strongest forecast, and especially the whisper number which hinted at a -400k decline in jobs due to Omicron. The 0.7% surge in earnings to $31.63 m/m, a new all-time high, and a 5.7% y/y clip, the fastest since March 2020, added to Fed worries and increased the risk for a 50 bp rate liftoff in March and a faster string of hikes this year. Rates continued to cheapen through the afternoon as sell stops were tripped. Bearish options plays added to the selling, as did the advent of the $110 bln in auctions next week. China returns from a week-long Lunar New Year break. USD (USDIndex- 95.50) US Yields –The rally on Wall Street further pressured Treasuries, but with no one willing to step in front of this bear train, yields continued to climb and ended the week sharply higher. Now, the 2-year has cheapened almost 13 bps to 1.326%, while the 3-year was over 12 bps higher at 1.585%. The 10- and 30-year yield rose 10 bps and 8 bps respectively to 1.935% and 2.235%. Asian stock markets were under pressure overnight, with Japan’s tech sector in particular struggling. China bourses rallied in catch up trade, despite a drop in the Caixin General Services PMI to a 5-month low of 51.4, from 53.1 in December. Australia retail sales also dropped for the first time in four months. Equities– JPN225 is down -0.7%. The USA100 advanced 1.58%, with the USA50052% firmer, while the USA30 slid to a -0.06% loss. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.8% and 0.4% respectively. German industrial production contracted -0.3% m/m in December, and was down -4.1% y/y in December. Production lifted 3.0% in 2021 compared to 2020, but was still down -5.5% compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Clearly virus developments and supply chain disruptions continued to weigh on overall output, in particular in Germany’s important car industry. UK– Complicating the picture is a political crisis. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces anger over a series of missteps, not least the alcohol-fuelled parties held at Downing Street during coronavirus lockdowns. The coming days could bring more clarity on his future. USOil– Spiked to $92.00 – 7-year highs – amid fear of supply disruptions from a multitude of geopolitical flare-ups, above all, a possible Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe is scrambling to find alternatives to Russian gas, while US winter storms at a time of general underproduction are an added problem. Gold– back above 1800 to $1812. Bitcoin up to $42,708. FX markets– EUR is broadly lower this morning, but EURUSD is up to 1.1426, USDJPY up to 115.27 & Cable to 1.3538. European Open – EGBs have found buyers in early trade, with a weaker than expected German production number at the start of the session adding some support. The short end continues to underperform as investors adjust their central bank outlooks, with those caught wrong-footed by Lagarde last week now risking overcorrecting expectations, and it may take some time before there is a new equilibrium. We still think Q4 is the most likely timing for a first move – in December, if inflation pressures calm somewhat, or October, if Covid-19 restrictions fade faster than anticipated and the tensions with Russia over Ukraine ease quickly. Today – Company reports and central bank outlooks remain in focus at the start of the week, but for now confidence seems to be holding up. Today’s slate has just US December consumer credit. Earnings include Amgen, Southern Copper, Simon Property, Tyson Foods, ON Semi, Zimmer Biomet, Principal Financial, Take-Two Interactive, Loews Corp., Hasbro, and CNA Financial. There is Fedspeak later in the week with Bowman, Mester, and Barkin. Data includes trade, the NFIB small business survey, claims, and consumer sentiment. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.44%) Dip to 1.4525 before rebounding again in EU open at 1.4568. Fast MAs turned higher again but MACD and RSI remain close to zero. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 4th February 2022. Market Update – February 4 – Stocks & USD Tank, BoE & ECB Surprise. Stock markets crushed into close; NASDAQ led the fall (-3.74%) after abysmal META (-26.39%) earnings. More mixed PMI data, and Hawkish surprises from BoE (25bps rise but more to come as 4 of 9 members wanted 50bps) & ECB (dovish statement but Hawkish Lagarde press conference – end of stimulus & rate hikes as early as September?). Asia markets higher following blockbuster AMZN (+15% after hours) earnings. USD tanked & Yields & Oil rallied & Gold holds over $1800. Biden: Russia plotting fake invasion pretext, US kills head of ISIS. Johnson: 4 top aids all resign in one day. Winter Olympics kick off. Putin expected to meet Xi. China, Hong Kong and other markets remained closed for the Lunar (Tiger) New Year holidays. USD (USDIndex 95.25) worst day in a long time – opened the week at 97.25, 96.00 now major resistance & 95.00 support. US Yields 10-yr closed at 1.827 & trades at 1.81%. Equities – USA500 -111 (-2.44%) 4477 – (FB -26.39%, AMZN -7%, but +15% after hours) USA500 FUTS recovered to 4518. SNAP (-23% on the day & then +59% after hours). USOil – Spiked over $89.00 and trades at $88.84 now. Gold – fell to $1788 back to $1807 now. Bitcoin remains under $40,000 back to test $37,800 FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1465 USDJPY up to 115.00 & Cable to 1.3580 Overnight – RBA Mins. repeats ‘prepared to be patient’ mantra, German Industrial Orders, much stronger than anticipated +2.8%. European Open – Treasuries have recovered earlier losses, but Bunds and other Eurozone bond markets remain under pressure as stronger than expected German orders at the start of the session add to the arguments for a change of course in March, which judging by Lagarde’s comments clearly is on the agenda next month, when the updated set of staff projections are also available. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.7%. A 2.2% rise in the NASDAQ meanwhile is leading US futures higher. Today – EZ/UK Construction PMI, EZ Retail Sales, US & Canadian Labour Market Reports. Earnings Carlsberg, Sanofi, Bristol-Myers, and AON. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.59%) Rallied from key 1.5800 Wednesday to over 1.6100 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram levelling off but well over 0 line, RSI 80 & OB, H1 ATR 0.0024 Daily ATR 0.0120. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 3rd February 2022. Market Update – February 3 – Stocks gain, FX awaits BoE & ECB. Stock markets closed higher after a weak start (S&P500 +0.94%) Mixed PMI data, a huge miss (-301k) for ADP & record CPI (5.1%) in Europe hung on sentiment. Asia markets struggled too. Weak earnings from Meta, Spotify and a -24% decline for PayPal. USD & Yields consolidate, Oil holds on to gains & Gold holds over $1800. Biden ordered 3000 troops to Eastern Europe. China, Hong Kong and other markets remained closed for the Lunar (Tiger) New Year holidays. USD (USDIndex 96.10) up from 95.77 low, 96.00 remains a key level US Yields 10-yr closed at 1.766 & trades at 1.766%. Equities – USA500 +43 (+0.94%) 4589 – (PYPL -24.59%, GOOG +7.45%) USA500 FUTS slip 4538. META lost +20% after hours, USOil – Spiked over $88.00 on OPEC+ maintaining 400k/day output. Now $86.32 after inventory drawdown Gold – topped at $1810 back to $1802 now. Bitcoin remains under $40,000 back to test $37,000 FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1295 USDJPY up to 114.60 & Cable to 1.3550 Overnight – Japan Services PMI missed, Large rise in AUD Imports, & Building Approvals. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks at 168.72, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures, as risk aversion picks up again amid disappointing reports from tech bellwethers that weighed on stock market sentiment. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.4% and -0.3% and a -2.3% sell off in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. European markets closed mixed though yesterday, after another record setting inflation report for the Eurozone put pressure on the ECB ahead of today’s announcement. Final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK are likely to highlight that virus developments continued to weigh on the sector at the start of the year, but officials are increasingly optimistic that economies will bounce back quickly from the most recent virus variant. Against that background, the spike in inflation is starting to look worrying, especially as labour markets continue to tighten. The BoE is widely expected to deliver another rate hike today, while the ECB could well sound more hawkish than some expect. Today – EZ, UK & US Services PMI, Weekly Initial Claims, Factory Orders & ISM Services PMI, BoE & ECB Earnings Amazon, Eli Lilly, Biogen, ConocoPhillips, Penn, BT, Shell, Nokia, ING, Infineon. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.30%) Rallied from key 0.8380 to 0.8415 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but under 0 line, RSI 58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0012 Daily ATR 0.0059. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 26th January 2022. Market update – January 26 – Central Banks Eyed. It was a wild Tuesday in the lead up to today’s FOMC decision. Both bonds and stocks closed lower as the Fed is widely expected to outline a rate hike strategy with a 25 bp liftoff in March. Exaggerated fears of a 50 bp move and perhaps a string of 4 to 5 hikes this year have dissipated, though we suspect the markets are still positioned too bearishly. We expect the policy statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference to be less hawkish than anticipated, hence setting the markets up for a bit of a relief rally. So far today, Bonds have struggled, stocks hit the skids again in the US session but eased in the Asia session, and FX markets have remained in a narrow range as markets wait for the FOMC and BoC. Australia was on holiday, which made for somewhat lower volumes, but it was mainly the upcoming FOMC announcement that put a lid on markets. Ukraine tensions and speculation over gas supplies to Europe in case of an escalation of tensions with Russia are weighing on sentiment. UK PM Boris Johnson now has to answer the police over “partygate”, with calls for him to resign getting louder. USD (USDIndex 96) continues incline – 3rd day above 20-DMA. The 10-year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.773%. The 10-year JGB rate is also slightly higher, but the 2-year paper found buyers as the BoJ summary shows commitment to loose policy. – The bank’s stance focused on providing stimulus to reach the 2% inflation goal. Treasury’s $55 bln 5-year auction was super strong. Equities – The USA100’s -3.18% drop paced the weakness, followed by a -2.8% loss on the USA500 and a -2.3% decline on the USA30. Today, Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.25% and -0.44%, GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.66% and 0.84% respectively, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.7% higher. Earnings: General Electric, beat on earnings, but missed on revenue, which weighed heavily while American Express provided upside support on solid earnings led by record credit card spending. Microsoft beats expectations with $18.8bn profit. Central banks clearly are getting nervous about the risk of second round effects, but the IMF’s growth downgrades yesterday also highlighted the risks from slowing momentum in China and virus developments. USOil – up to $84.60 – API data shows US crude stocks fall,Biden threatens sanctions on Putin over any invasion, markets await Fed update, US approves oil exchange from strategic reserve. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement launched a missile attack on a United Arab Emirates base hosting the US military. Gold – down to $1844 from $1854. Bitcoin at $37,000 handle. FX markets – USDJPY steady at 113.95. EURUSD at 1.1295 & Cable at 1.3500. European Open – Bund futures are under pressure, while US futures are moving higher, while in cash markets, the German 10-year Bund yield has lifted 0.4 bp to -0.08%. BTPs are supported though and spreads are coming in. Today – Along with today’s BoC and FOMC result, the earnings calendar is heavy. Today’s slate features several biggies, including Tesla, Abbott Labs, Intel, AT&T, Boeing, Anthem, ServiceNow, ADP, Lam Research, Crown Castle, Norfolk Southern, Freeport-McMoran, Progressive, Kimberly-Clark, Amphenol, Ameriprise, Corning, Nasdaq, Hess, Teradyne, Seagate, United Rentals, Raymond James, and Teledyne. Data includes the December advance goods trade report Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF – Breaks 0.7300 (R1) from 0.7195 lows on Monday. Fast MAs aligned lower intraday with all momentum indicators pointing further higher. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 25th January 2022. Market update – January 25. A flight out of equities and into the safety of bonds was the opening theme yesterday – Could we see this repeated? US futures are under pressure once again, alongside a broad sell off across Asian equity markets. Tensions over the Ukraine, virus developments in China and the prospect of reduced central bank support all continued to weigh on sentiment overnight. The rise in Omicron cases ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays and of course the Olympic Games is adding to nervousness over slowing growth. Australia’s inflation rate came in higher than expected, which added to growing conviction that the RBA will end its quantitative easing program at the February 1 meeting. Singapore surprised with a move to tighten policy outside of a scheduled review USD (USDIndex 95.90) saw a pullback after breaching 96.11. Treasury rates dove lower with a strongly bid 2-year sale extending the slide. The just auctioned 2-year rate dropped 7 bps to hit 0.970%. Equities – Hang Seng and CEI 200 expected to drop more than -1.8% today. The Nikkei closed with a loss of -1.7%, the ASX plunged -2.5% after the hot inflation report. Yesterday, USA100 crashed -4.9%, with the broader indexes over -3% lower before hitting bottom and paring losses. But a late buy the dip rally saw the USA100 rally 0.63%, with the USA500 and USA30 up 0.29%. USOil – back to $82.00 territory, – recovering some of yesterday’s losses, as growing tension in Eastern Europe and the Middle East fuelled concerns over possible supply disruptions. Lower US oil inventories are also providing support. Gold – held on to gains at $1841 as investors sought safety. Bitcoin steadied to $35,000 handle. FX markets – The Yen was supported as risk aversion picked up and USDJPY dropped to 113.66. EURUSD at 1.1306 & Cable below 1.3500. European Open – European stock futures are signalling a bounce back from yesterday’s sell off, with the GER40 and UK100 currently posting gains of 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. EGB yields are set to rise today, as stock markets bounce back from yesterday’s sell off. The German 10-year Bund yield is up 1.4 bp at -0.097% in early trade, the French 10-year up 1.3 bp, both underperforming versus Treasuries, which have moved higher overnight, as Asian stock markets sold off. Today – The FOMC meeting starts today, with an announcement due tomorrow, ahead of the ECB and BoE meetings in February. Geopolitical risks will remain in focus today, while the data calendar highlights are the German Ifo readings and the UK CBI manufacturing survey. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Cocoa (-3.22%) Huge dive to 2488 from 2684 highs seen last week, breaking all daily SMAs (20-, 50-, 200-day). Fast MAs aligned lower intraday with all momentum indicators pointing further lower. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 24th January 2022. Market Update – January 24 – Markets on toes on Fed and Ukraine jitters. It was all about risk aversion and a flight to safety in the markets to end the week. Concerns over Ukraine-Russia tensions added to the bearish backdrop as the hawkish turn the FOMC and other central banks, along with the worries over inflation, as well as earnings as the impacts surging expenses on the bottom line take their toll.Meanwhile, the PBoC is going the other was as it looks to shore up its slumping economy. China’s central bank just cut its 14-day reverse repo rate and added more stimulus after cutting the 7-day rae last Monday, along with the reduction in the 1-year medium term loan rate. This is providing some support to Chinese stocks and that could underpin some follow-through dip buying into Western equity markets Additionally, many of the high flying pandemic companies are crumbling, led by the weakness in Netflix and Peloton. The 10-year Treasury rate is at 1.76%, the German Bund rate at -0.065%, both slightly lower. USD firmed Gold held onto to gains. Preliminary PMI readings for Japan showed struggling services sector, but ongoing improvement in manufacturing, which left the composite in contraction territory for the first time since September 2021. Australia’s composite plunged to 45.3 from 54.9. China’s PBOC provided 14-day funds at a 10 bp lower rate, which was no surprise after last week’s slew of rate cuts as the country battles Covid-19 and troubles in the property sector. USD (USDIndex 95.75) ticks higher . Equities – USA500 dis 4419 – USA500 and USA100 posted their biggest weekly drop since March 2020 last week. USOil – rebounce to $85.00 but holds below it. Gold – held on to gains topped at $1841 and holds at 7-week rally. Bitcoin under $35,000 handle – its lowest since July 2021. FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1300 – 1.1326, USDJPY now 113.60 (The Japanese yen tends to benefit from safe haven flows as stocks crumble) & Cable eased to 1.3550, below 20-DMA. European Open – GER40 and UK100 futures are posting slight gains, as are US futures, with tech stocks leading the way. Markets struggled overnight, but while European PMI readings this morning are likely to look similarly weak than data out of Japan and Australia overnight, in the current situation that also backs hopes of a cautious stance at central banks, as the FOMC announcement on Wednesday comes into view. Today – Today’s local calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for Eurozone and U.K., which are expected to reflect the impact of virus measures on the services industry, especially in the Eurozone.Today’s schedule includes earnings from IBM, Southern Copper, Halliburton, Brown & Brown, Logitech, and Steel Dynamics. The data slate is light with December Chicago Fed national activity index, along with flash January Markit manufacturing and services PMIs. The Treasury auctions $54 bln of 2-year notes. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.41%) Topped to 1.8927 extending Friday’s gains. Currently settled to 1.8900 barrier. MAs flattened along with RSI, but MACD signal line & histogram hold higher, while Stochastic points lower. H1 ATR 0.0024 Daily ATR 0.0111. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 21st January 2022. Market Update – January 21 – Stocks Sink – Netflix & Peloton Crash. Stock markets sank again (Nasdaq -1.3%) Tech companies led the slide, (Peloton -24%, Netflix -18% post results. USD firmed as Yields & Oil dipped, Gold held onto to gains. Markets are nervous and risk aversion has picked up as investors eye shaky earnings, and waning confidence, with mounting tensions over Ukraine adding to geopolitical tensions. US Weekly claims hit a 3-mth high, EZ Inflation was an ATH and North Korea said it may resume testing its nuclear arsenal. Asian markets and AUD & NZD lower (AUDJPY -0.62%) ASX 200 (-1.2%), Nikkei 225 (-1.8%). USD (USDIndex 95.65) ticks higher slips as Yields decline . US Yields 10-yr moved closed at 1.83% & trades at 1.785%. Equities – USA500 -50 (-1.1%) 4482 – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4467. USOil – Fell below $82.00 afrom highs at 87.95 on Wednesday, Inventories increased by 0.5m vs 2.3m drawdown. Gold – held on to gains topped at $1848 and holds $1838 now, holding the key 1830 support. Bitcoin under $40,000 back to test $39,000, FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1300 – 1.1322, USDJPY now 113.80 & Cable back to 1.3570, the week’s low. Overnight – UK Retail Sales plunged -3.7%, Consumer confidence slipped 4 whole points to -19 and Japanese core inflation was inline at 0.5%. European Open – The 10 US Treasury yield is up from overnight lows, Bunds are also finding buyers in opening trade, and the 10-year continues to shy away from turning positive, as ECB officials continue to push back against speculation of an early rate hike at the end of the year and market sentiment generally turns cautious. DAX and FTSE 100 future are posting losses of -1.4% and -1.1% respectively. Today – EZ Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Mann; ECB’s Lagarde, BoJ’s Kuroda Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.66%) Rallied from 1.6675 yesterday to breach 1.6800 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher. RSI 73 OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.0026 Daily ATR 0.0100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 19th January 2022. Market Update – January 19 – Stocks tank, Yields higher, Inflation weighs. Stock markets sank (Nasdaq -2.6% as the VIX pushed higher +5.22%). Financials and Pharma companies led the slide, USD firmer supported by high Yields – the main market driver. US 10-yr 1.85%, German 10-yr to May 2019 highs as Inflation in UK & Germany hits 30-year highs. Oil higher again, Gold continues to gyrate. Pressure on UK PM grows. USD (USDIndex 95.65) holds on to gains. US Yields 10-yr moved higher – closed at 1.865% & trades at 1.883%. Equities – USA500 -85 (-1.84%) 4577 (GS -6.97%, BAC -3.44%, FB -4.0%, SONY -7.0%. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4539. USOil – Spiked over $87.00 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles continues to unsettle sentiment. Gold – holds at $1812 from a test of $1820 & spike to $1806. Bitcoin tested to $42,400, back to 41,200 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1336, USDJPY now 114.40 tested 115.00 yesterday, Cable back to 1.3600, from 1.3570 lows yesterday. Overnight – UK CPI – 2 ticks higher at 5.4% vs 5.2% CORE 3 ticks higher at 4.2%, RPI up to 7.5% from 7.1% & new 30-year highs. German CPI in line at 5.3% and HICP at 5.7%. European Open – The 10-year Bund yield has lifted 2.4 bp to 0.002% in early trade with high readings for German and U.K. December CPI adding to pressure. Global equity markets are struggling with the sharp rise in yields and intensifying tightening expectations, leaving DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. The Euro Stoxx 50 has lost -0.7% so far and a -0.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Pretty much the same picture as yesterday, with markets at risk of running way with tightening concerns, and central banks increasingly under pressure. Today – Canadian CPI, IEA OMR, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, supply from Germany & the US. Earnings from Bank of America, MS, UnitedHealth. DAVOS continues. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.35%) Rallied from 3-day decline to 0.8455 to 0.8495 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & testing 0 line. RSI 56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0011 Daily ATR 0.0056. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 18th January 2022. Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Stands Pat. Asian markets weaker as BOJ stays put (-0.1% interest rate) with stimulus package intact, raises inflation target to 1.1% and growth to 3.8% for 2022. Kuroda: “Will ease monetary policy without hesitation as needed, there has been a notable improvement in the economy.” USD firmer, Yields moved up with US 2-yr over key 1.0%, 10-yr over 1.8%. Oil higher – Saudi’s retaliate, attacking Yemen and Gold holds at $1815. USD (USDIndex 95.25) holds on to gains from Friday, pushing to 953.8 earlier. US Yields 10-yr moved higher again and trades at 1.818%. Equities – US closed yesterday. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4633. USOil – Spiked over $84.70 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles unsettles sentiment. Gold – holds at $1815 from a test of $1823. Bitcoin another down day, tested to $41,600, back to 42,200 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1400, USDJPY now 114.80 tested 115.00 earlier, Cable back to test 200hr MA 1.3620, +20 pips after UK jobs data. Overnight – UK Earnings in line at 4.2%, Unemployment (4.1%) and Claims better than expected. PBOC deputy governor says will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -19 ticks, Treasury futures are underperforming. Stocks across Asia struggled with the renewed rise in yields and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Inflation risks and central bank outlook will be dominating the discussion in coming months. Today – German ZEW, Empire State Manu. Index & Earnings from Goldman Sachs. Day 2 of DAVOS (on-line). Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (again) (+0.34% again) Rallied all day over 91.73 (Thursdays high) and onto test 92.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 68 rising, H1 ATR 0.131 Daily ATR 0.804. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 17th January 2022. Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds onto gains. Big bank Earnings disappointed on Friday, the USD recovered from 8-week lows and Fedspeakers continued to worry about inflation as hawkish tones increased. Stocks recovered early losses, Yields moved up to close the week as Oil moved up and Gold moved down. China’s PBOC delivered the first rate cut in a while as signs of slow down persist and Covid cases once again spread. USD (USDIndex 95.20) holds on to gains from Friday. Bouncing from 8-week lows under 94.60. US Yields 10-yr moved higher again to close at 1.772%. Equities – USA500 +3.82 (+0.08%) at 4662 as Financials weighed following Earnings from JPM (-6.15%) Blackrock (-2.19%) and WFC (+3.68) Tech & Energies lead recovery into long weekend. USA500 FUTS lower at 4652. USOil – Spiked over $84.00 as markets look beyond Covid spikes with very tight supply. Gold – settled at $1816 from a test of 1830 again. Now at $1822. Bitcoin support once again at $42,000, Friday, back to 42,800 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1465, USDJPY now 114.40 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.33680. Overnight – Chinese GDP and industrial production exceeded expectations, whilst retail sales disappointed. UK house price data from the Nationwide was strong. The Chairman of Credit Suisse has resigned due to Covid breaches. Week Ahead A Bank of Japan meeting which concludes on Tuesday, UK inflation data on Wednesday and Australian jobs figures on Thursday. Earnings from GS, BAC, MS, P&G, Netflix European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -36 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures, which points to a further rise in yields across Europe. Stock market futures are trading mixed, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures posting gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while an 0.4% decline in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Central bank outlooks and inflation expectations remain in focus, the Fed is gearing up for a round of central bank hikes this year that will also impact the outlook for BoE and ECB amid hopes that the pandemic phase of Covid-19 will start to fade. Today – Little data from Europe & All US markets closed for MLK Day. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.34%) Rallied from 90.50 lows on Friday to 91.37 (Fridays high) now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121 Daily ATR 0.794. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 14th January 2022. Market Update – January 14 – USD longs trimmed positions. The market has well priced in elevated inflation and an all but assured March rate liftoff, hence taking in stride a record clip in core PPI at 8.3% y/y and the drop in continuing jobless claims to 1,559k, the lowest since before the pandemic. Markets trimmed long positions and deemed, for now, that several US rate hikes this year are fully priced in. USD (USDIndex 94.73) – found a floor above 94.50. US Yields 10-yr has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.72% overnight, as hawkish Fedspeak continued to fuel tightening speculation. – Fed Brainard acknowledged that she too could vote for a March rate hike. The Bank of Korea added to the hawkish tone by hiking the key rate to 1.25% from 1.00% and signalling that more moves could be on the way. Bank of Japan is deliberating how it can start telegraphing an eventual rate hike. – Yen on bid. China’s trade data showed a marked slowdown in both export and import growth. Equities – tightening speculation has put pressure on stocks. GER30 and UK100 are down -0.4%. USA100 dropped -2.5%, JPN225 corrected -1.3%. UK economy stronger than expected before Omicron. Monthly GDP data for November were a positive surprise, with a rise of 0.9% m/m that compensated somewhat for the disappointing October reading. USOil – at 81.68 after 80.75 bottom, amid concerns on Chinese fuel demand & whether US government will act to cool oil prices. Gold & Silver – best weekly rise since November – remains however below the key $1835 barrier. FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1482, USDJPY down at 113.63, Cable at 1.3725. European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is down -6 ticks, broadly in line with moves in Treasury futures, while both the Schatz and the 30-year futures outperformed. The UK already signalled that virus measures will be relaxed further in coming weeks, which will add to the arguments of the hawkish camp at the BoE. Today –Headlining is the ECB Lagarde speech and US December retail sales report. Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.40%) breaks below 20-day SMA at 82.60 (50-DMA). Fast MAs aligned lower, with MACD lines negatively configured, RSI at 36 but stochastics pointing higher suggesting correction. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 16th December 2021. Market Update – 16/12/21 – FOMC – Taper Ends March, 3 x 25bps Rate Hikes 2022. “The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support” – Powell Inflation “uncomfortably high” – has exceeded 2% target “for some time” Jobs – “we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment” Looking at a soft landing for economy, as Virus fades, Inflation dissipates on its own (2.6% 2022 – 2.1% 2024?) & Full employment (Unemployment @3.5%) runs through next 3 years. USD (USDIndex 96.21) rallied to 96.85 on FED weakened thereafter. Stocks rallied (Nasdaq best performer +2.15%) & Yields rallied. Omicron news mixed again with large rise in cases in UK, SA – Pfizer booster not as effective as elsewhere. US Yields 10yr traded up to 1.461% & holds gains. Equities – USA500 +75 (+1.63%) breaching key 4700 at 4709 – USA500.F trades up at 4727 knocking on the door of ATHs. USOil – rallied from under $70.00 to $71.41 on FED & Inventories. Gold held in check by higher yields & USD then reversed – sank to $1753 (46 day low) before bouncing to $1785. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1310 from 1.1225, USDJPY 114.10 from 114.25, Cable 1.3263 from 1.3170. European Open – March 10-yr Bund future slightly higher, as is the Treasury future, Stock markets have taken hawkish Fed pivot in their stride and DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.5% and 1.1% respectively ahead of European central bank meetings today. Investors welcomed the clarity on the Fed path and will also have seen the move as a sign of confidence in the recovery. In Europe, ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, SNB is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, BoE and Norges Bank will discuss a rate hike in the shadow of Omicron. On balance it seems more likely that Norges Bank will go ahead with the planned hike, while BoE will sit out another meeting as the country debates a circuit breaker lockdown amid 78K virus cases (highest ever) yesterday and signs it’s spreading 4x faster than Delta, fears of hospitals being overrun with cases although milder and companies suffering with many workers off sick. Today – SNB, Norges, CBRT, BoE, ECB, Flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims – & bi-election in UK a further test of Johnson’s authority. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.36%) rallied from below 150.00 on Tuesday to 151.70. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 72.30 OB & still rising. H1 ATR 0.225, Daily 1.20. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 15th December 2021. Market Update – December 15 – FOMC Day – A Hawkish FOMC priced in? Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD (USDIndex 96.39) holds onto gains, close to 2-wk high. Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq worst performer again -1.14%) & Yields drop. US PPI climbed to 9.6% from 8.8%, new ATH. Major FX pairs sideways into FED. US Senate agrees gov. funding into February. Asian markets largely weaker. Omicron news mixed – Pfizer pill 90% effective in final trails, Sinovax & the 3 US vaccines – ineffective after 2 doses vs Omicron – US study, Omicron spreading at “unprecedented rate” – WHO. US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.438% now. Equities – USA500 -34.88 (-0.75%) at 4634 – USA500.F trades flat at 4633. MFST -3.26%. Musk could have off-loaded $18m. worth of #TSLA (-0.82%) stock by year end – CNBC. USOil – under $70.00 – EIA unsure about Omicron impact on fuel demand – trades at $69.40 testing 8-day lows. Gold spiked under key $1770, sank to $1766.70, earlier – now struggles at $1769. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1275, USDJPY 113.70, Cable recovers from breach of 1.3200 to trade at 1.3245 now. (98 Tory MP’s voted against PM Johnson’s plans for further restrictions, motion was passed with opposition support). Overnight – CNY – mixed data Factory output speeds up but Retail Sales miss (3.9% vs 4.9%), GBP CPI jumps to 5.1% (10-yr high) vs 4.8% vs 4.2% last time – CORE leaps to 4.0% from 3.4%. RPI (which only looks at consumption up to 7.1%) – factory gate prices are up 9.1% & input costs up 14.3% on a year ago – even more grist to the mill for BOE hawks. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, while the 30-year year has moved higher overnight. U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains. A mixed and cautious picture then as markets wait for the FOMC announcement, which is expected to confirm a faster tapering schedule, despite latest virus developments. The DAX future is up 0.17% the FTSE 100 is down -1.6%, as the BoE starts its meeting. Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns & virus nerves though the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up tapering. ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on EUR. BOE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions tighten. Today – Canadian CPI, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Retail Sales, DoEs, FOMC policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell press conference Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.36%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday at 0.6538 to 0.6585 now. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & have breached 0 line, RSI 60.95 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily 0.0072. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 14th December 2021. Market Update – Omicron Sentiment slips – Fed in Focus. USD (USDIndex 96.35) holds Monday’s gains (95.40), Stocks closed lower (Nasdaq worst performer -1.39%) & Yields drop (10yr 1.422%). Major FX pairs sideways into FED. Omicron news weighed, first death in UK, WHO – this variant “very high risk” but data on severity limited, & another study shows 2-dose vaccines don’t lower antibodies. US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.416% up to 1.4216 now. Equities – USA500 -43.00 (-0.91%) at 4668 – USA500.F trades higher at 4878. USOil – lost over $2.00 under $70.50 – now recovered $71.00 & trades at 71.20. Gold spiked to $1790, sank to $1782, now struggles at $1788. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1270, USDJPY 113.70, Cable back down to 1.3200 from 1.3275 yesterday. Overnight – JPY Industrial production, much better than expected, AUD business confidence better than expected, GBP data dump also better than expected (Earnings 4.9% vs 4.6% & 5.9% last time, Claims down nearly 50k vs 15K last time & expectations of -31k & Unemployment unchanged at 4.2%). European Open – March 10yr Bund future down -0.6 bp at 174.62, slightly underperforming vs Treasury futures. Yields remain at low levels though as markets keep a wary eye on omicron developments while waiting for this week’s round of CB meetings. FOMC kicks off its 2-day session today, with an announcement due tomorrow. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% & 0.3% respectively. Sentiment stabilising after virus restrictions. Central banks will have a difficult task trying to balance inflation concerns & virus nerves though the FOMC it seems remains on course to speed up tapering. ECB still looks dovish by comparison, even if it is set to confirm the timely end of PEPP on Thursday, which is keeping a lid on EUR. BOE is also expected to push back the flagged rate hike into 2022 as virus restrictions are tightening & Cable has dropped to test 1.3200. This morning’s jobs news adds to BOE Hawks. Today – IEA OMR, EZ Industrial Production, US PPI. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.23%) slip after 5-day rally from under 0.9000 to 0.9135. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 13th December 2021. Market Update – December 13 – Omicron sentiment improves to start Big week. Hot CPI data on Friday, all-time highs for stocks and a steady to stronger USD, greets a big week for central banks as markets enter the last three weeks of the year. USD (USDIndex 96.22) rises from dips below 96.00 on Friday. Omicron news improves, case peaks appear to have been hit in Gauteng, South Africa, hospitalizations have stabilized and projected death rates appear to be 25 times lower than Delta, mixing Pfizer, AZ & Moderna vaccines appear to give better immunity and Anti-viral drugs from Merck & GSK new data improving. US deaths top 800k, is now present in 30 states and first Omicron case traced to November 15. Stocks hit new all-time highs Friday USA500 +0.95% (+44pts) 4712, Futures now at 4722 US Yields 10-year rates fell to 1.48%, down about 5 basis points from last week’s peak, and trades at 1.49% now. Asian Markets – Asian indices are broadly higher, despite a slightly weaker than hoped Tankan survey for Japan and more omicron warnings, which were counterbalanced by signs that China will take further steps to boost the economy. Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.1% and 0.7% respectively, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are posting gains of 0.5% and 0.7%. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp have lifted 0.4% and 0.6% so far and the ASX closed 0.4% higher. USOil – continues to recover and holds over $70.00 for a 5th consecutive day and trades at $72.25. Gold – dipped to test key $1770 on Friday, recovering to $1785 now European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, U.S. futures are outperforming slightly, but are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting gains of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively and U.S. futures are also posting gains of around 0.3%. In FX markets both Euro and Sterling struggled against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.1285 and Cable at 1.3227 and USDJPY at 113.50. The UK upped its warnings on the omicron variant over the weekend and is targetting all adults to have received a booster by year-end, a month ahead of current schedule. In the short run at least, the risks to growth forecasts are to the downside, which will also overshadow central bank decisions this week. BoE, ECB, SNB and Norges Bank are all set to announce policy on Thursday – hot on the heels of the FOMC decision on Wednesday. For the BoE it will likely mean that the flagged rate hike will be pushed out into next year, and possibly 2023 although inflation and labour market data ahead of the announcement could throw a spanner in the works. Today – OPEC Oil Market Report, BoE Financial Stability Report, Speech from BOE’s Bailey. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.31%) Recovered from sub-1.3200 Friday to 1.3265 highs, down on open and 1.325 now. Currently MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower, RSI 46.00 & weakening. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily 0.0081. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 10th December 2021. Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus. USD (USDIndex firmed at 96.25) as caution dominated. Profit taking knocked stocks a little lower after recent gains as concerns over Omicron and the renewed restrictions in the UK and in other areas weighed on the more optimistic growth outlooks into 2022. Asian stock markets have sold off across the board, with Topix and Nikkei currently down -0.8% and -1.0% respectively. China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd officially defaulted on their dollar debt. China’s central bank meanwhile took further steps to limit the Yuan’s strength by setting the weakest reference rate relative to estimates since 2018, – according to Bloomberg. The bank already raised the foreign currency reserve requirement yesterday for a second time this year. German HICP inflation was confirmed at 6.0% y/y, the national CPI rate at 5.2% y/y. The final readings for November were no surprise and the breakdown confirmed that higher energy prices were a key factor. UK GDP weaker than expected in November – More arguments then for the BoE to sit out yet another meeting next week and push the rate hike debate into 2022. US Yields: 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.5 bp at 1.50% – Treasury yields richened, in part on the risk off in stocks and on short covering as some of the recent selling pressures were overdone USOil – dip to $70.16 – biggest weekly gain since late August! Brent & WTI both on >6% rise this week. – RISK: China’s domestic air traffic recovery faltering due to zero-COVID policy, that has led to tighter travel rules in Beijing and weaker consumer confidence after repeated small outbreaks. FX markets – US Dollar firmed at 96.25, Chinese Yuan got a boost, EURUSD settled below 1.1300 on ECB’s debate news, Cable at 1.3214. Yen generally steady to lower against most currencies. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, slightly underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.5 bp at 1.50%, after the paper erased overnight gains. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.5% and -0.4% respectively, after a broad sell off across Asian markets. In Europe, expectations for a BoE rate hike have been pushed back as the UK ramps up virus restrictions. The ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, but seems to be still debating if and how to soften the blow with a strengthened APP program. In any case, net asset purchases will continue even when the emergency PEPP program has ended. Today – Data releases today focus on ECB’s Lagarde speech, US inflation and Michigan index. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD (-0.20%)Currently MAs are aligned lower with the asset below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are moving southwards below 0 and RSI is retesting OS barrier, with Stochastic declines suggesting further pressure. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 9th December 2021. Market Update – December 9 – Imminent inflation data puts the rate outlook back in focus! USD down (USDIndex at 95.80) as Omicron worries ebbed further after reports that 3 jabs of the Pfizer vaccine are offering good protection against the variant, with global stock markets sustaining weekly gains but traded mixed, with USA30 and USA100 unchanged most of the session. The BoE is increasingly seen to push back a planned rate hike into next year, which is adding to pressure on the Pound. The JOLTS report showed a bounce in openings to another 11 mln level, but a decline in quits. The Bank of Canada left policy on hold, as expected. A business outlook indicator for Japan came in much stronger than anticipated, but Topix and JPN225 still dropped -0.6% and -0.5% respectively. US debt limit drama averted as Senate leadership makes a deal (expected at $2 trl increase) – The Senate could take it up perhaps today, with the House voting on Friday, allowing possible enactment just before Christmas. US Yields 10-year rate remains above the 1.5% mark though as confidence in the global recovery continues to strengthen, with most expecting the latest virus variant to provide only a temporary set-back for the world recovery and as ongoing Fed tightening worries continue to unwind safe haven trades since Thanksgiving. China PPI inflation drops back from 26-year high. – creates room for further stimulus measures. USOil – rose to $73.12. Gold: at the $1780 area as there are limited gains on elevated Treasury yields and caution in the run-up to a key US inflation data and Federal Reserve policy meeting, which capped gains of the non-yielding asset. FX markets – AUD and NZD were sought as local yields moved higher. Sterling stabilised, after selling off yesterday and Cable is currently at 1.3213. EURUSD corrected overnight, but is still firmly above the 1.13 mark at currently 1.1331. USDJPY at 113.50. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has lifted 16 ticks to 173.65, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are little changed, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has also corrected from yesterday’s highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1%, after being pressured by a jump in yields yesterday, as ECB officials signalled that Omicron won’t derail plans to phase out PEPP in time next year. Today – In the US, Jobless claims are on tap. In Switzerland SECO will release its latest set of forecasts ahead of next week’s SNB decision. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.36%) Currently MAs are aligned lower as the asset turned below PP. MACD signal line & histogram are slipping, RSI is at 41 and Stochastic declined to 12. H1 ATR 0.127, Daily 0.908. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 8th December 2021. Market Update – December 8 – Stocks extend gains. USD (USDIndex settled at 96.10) as risk appetite continued to improve, with global stock markets strengthening following Wall Street higher, with Topix and JPN225 posting gains of 0.6% and 1.4%. – The BOJ bought a total of 1.025 trillion yen ($9.03 billion) JGBs. Reuters: Intel’s INTC.O announcement of plans to take its self-driving car unit Mobileye public in the United States next year pushed his shares to a 3% gain and cheered chip investors across the board. Japan Q3 GDP revised lower with second report. Shoppers seemed to have already tightened their purse strings, leaving overall activity down -3.6% on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis. Business investment wasn’t quite as weak as feared, but the pressure on spending already evident in Q3 may foreshadow the impact Omicron will have on the overall outlook. Supply chain issues are weighing on exports and will continue to weigh on growth in Q4, which is generally expected to be even worse than the third quarter. US Yields 10-year rate still dropped -1.0 bp to 1.46% overnight, and JGB rates and Australia yields also corrected, as speculation that central banks will move earlier than anticipated is pushing up short rates, while supporting the long end to some extent. The bear flattening trade continues to weigh on Treasuries. The significant cheapening in rates since last month amid rising risks of Fed rate hikes made the maturity a little more palatable. The apparent strength in the economy is also adding to expectations the FOMC will not only announce an acceleration in QE tapering next week, but could also push up rate liftoff to the spring, and potentially hike rates three times in 2022. USOil – steadied at $71.00 – Risks: assessment of full impact of the Omicron variant on economy; effectiveness of existing vaccines; US-Iran nuclear talks to resume later this week; US-Russia tension raised as Biden warns Putin of sanctions, Nord Stream 2 disruption if Russia invades. FX markets – US Dollar struggled, EUR and Sterling strengthened somewhat against a largely weaker Dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.129 and Cable at 1.3240. USDJPY pullback to 113.30. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.4 bp to 1.46%. 2-year yields have moved higher and curves flattened as improved growth optimism is boosting expectations of central bank action as inflation remains high. The Fed has sounded hawkish through the Omicron scare so far and while the doves at the BoE and ECB may want to err on the side of caution next week, the tide on monetary policy clearly is turning. Today – The European data calendar is pretty quiet today, ahead of German trade data tomorrow and UK GDP numbers on Friday. Hence all eyes today are on BoC rate decision and statement. US Jolts are also on tap. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.42%) Currently MAs are aligned higher as the asset recovered more than 50% of 3-day losses, MACD signal line & histogram are above 0 and RSI is retesting OB barrier, but Stochastic declines suggesting a possible correction. H1 ATR 0.00062, Daily 0.00448. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 7th December 2021. Market Update – December 7 – Equities and currencies gain as Omicron worries wane. USD (USDIndex 96.15) steady, as Treasuries rose sharply on the improvement in risk appetite on expectations for an acceleration in QE tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting, and as the market set up for this week’s $112 bln in coupon supply. Stock market sentiment strengthened further overnight and the GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while a 0.7% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher. The RBA left policy settings unchanged, but sounded relatively optimistic on the virus front, which for some signalled that an early exit from QE is on the cards. Growing confidence that Omicron won’t derail the global recovery, but that also means that central banks remain on course to rein in stimulus as new virus restrictions will likely add to inflation pressures. Today’s released UK BRC retail sales were stronger than expected, but may be distorted by warnings that consumers should bring forward Christmas shopping in the light of supply chain disruptions, which could worsen over the winter. US Yields 10-year rate lifted 1.7 bp to 1.45% overnight, JGB rates are up 1.7 bp at 0.051% as stock market sentiment continued to improve. Australia’s 10-year jumped 6.5 bp to 1.64%. USOil – higher above 200-DMA at $70.60 – concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant on global fuel demand eased, while Iran nuclear talks stalled, delaying the return of Iranian crude. FX markets – EURUSD remains below the 1.13 mark, while Cable is still below 1.33 as the FOMC decision comes into view. USDJPY lifted to 113.72, but currently 113.58. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -50 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries and leaving Bund yields to jump sharply in catch up trade, after Treasury yields continued to move higher through the Asian session. Today – The calendar has Eurozone detailed GDP numbers for Q3, but the focus will be on German ZEW investor confidence. In the US session, we have US trade and productivity and Canadian Ivey PMI. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.41%) Currently MAs are aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI sloping to 26, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.00226, Daily 0.01442. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 6th December 2021. Market Update – December 6 – Stock futures rise, Oil bounces. USD (USDIndex 96.36) up , as Treasuries benefited again from the flight to safety, and as some of the oversold conditions from rate hike worries were pared. Stocks struggled after a lower close on Wall Street Friday, USA100 down over -2.0%, USA500 -0.84% to 4555 & USA30 up to 34784. Investors try to sort out the big risks from monetary policy, along with renewed uncertainties over covid and the Omicron variant hitting, and now with renewed restrictions, all the while pandemic supply/demand dislocations continue with varying impacts on growth and inflation. And the US mixed jobs report topped off. The earnings season has wound down, but worrisome guidance from some big tech firms. Traders keep a close eye on this month’s round of central bank meetings. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signaled an easing of reserve requirements and China’s securities watchdog tried to play down fears over the withdrawal of Chinese companies from American exchanges. US Yields 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. UK 10-year rate lifted 4.4 bp to 1.39%, while bond markets across the Asia Pacific region were supported and the the 10-year JGB rate down -1. 2bp at 0.036%. USOil – steadied below 200-DMA at $68.00 – recovered from $62.24 today -rose on positive sentiment after top exporter Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude sold to Asia and the United States, and as indirect U.S.-Iran talks on reviving a nuclear deal appeared to hit an impasse. Gold at $1780 area, as Treasury yields soft, unwinding some of the November selloff as it was seen as overdone, and as investors move back into haven trades as angst over an aggressive Fed policy posture abates and inflation concerns ease. FX markets – EURUSD dropped back to 1.1279 and cable to 1.3225, USDJPY lifted to 113.11 & Cable steadied to 1.3328. Antipodeans bounced. European Open -The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, while US futures are in the red, although in cash markets, the US 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. Asian stock markets also traded mixed and sentiment is likely to continue to continue to fluctuate. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively and US futures are also posting broad gains, amid some hope that Omicron may turn out to be more infectious, but less deadly than previous strains. Today – Today’s data calendar had German manufacturing orders which plunged -6.9% m/m in October, much more than anticipated. BoE’s Broadbent speech is also on tap. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.97%) Currently MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI steadied at 45, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.138, Daily 0.91. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
-
Date : 3rd December 2021. Market Update – December 3 – Pre-Omicron peak NFP? In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index remained range-bound, but was subsequently boosted by Yellen and Bostic’s speeches and closed at 95.97. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded 4 basis points to 1.44%. In terms of non-US currencies, the Euro hovered around 1.13 against the US Dollar; the British Pound closed up 0.16% to 1.3297 against the US Dollar; the US Dollar ended a 4-day losing streak against the Yen to close at 113.16; the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar have been hovering at low levels throughout the year and closed at 0.6813 and 0.7091 respectively; the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar remained stable at a high level of 1.28; the US Dollar and Swiss franc continued to test the previous low level of 0.92. In the precious metals market, spot gold fell below the 1770 level to $1769 per ounce; spot silver held steady above the 8-week low at $22.33 per ounce. In the oil market, OPEC+ decided to keep the output increase of 400,000 barrels per day unchanged in January next year. US crude oil fell to a minimum of 62.20 US dollars, and then rebounded more than 7% to 67.01 US dollars/barrel. Key recent events: The labor market has grown moderately, and the Dollar has regained support and rebounded. Yesterday, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States in November fell further by 7,947 to 14,875, a record low since May 1993. In addition, as of the week of November 27, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits recorded an increase of 222,000, which was lower than the market’s expectation of 240,000. After the data was released, its previous value was also revised down to an increase of 194,000 (previously an increase of 199,000). Judging from the four-week average, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was 238,750, which was lower than the previous value of 251,000 (pre-revision: 252,250). Overall, these data reflect the continued moderate growth of the US labor market, and may benefit the non-agricultural data that will be released later today. The market predicts that after the November seasonal adjustment, the non-agricultural employment population will record an increase of 555,000, slightly higher than the previous value of an increase of 531,000, the unemployment rate will record a five-month consecutive decline to 4.5%, and the employment participation rate will rebound by 0.1% to 61.7%, the average weekly working hours remained at 5.0%, and the average hourly wage rate and monthly rate increased by 5.0% and 0.4%, respectively. In addition, the market will continue to track news about the Omicron virus strain. According to foreign media reports, cases of infection with the mutant strain have been found in the states of Minnesota and Colorado. However, despite the fact that Omicron has been pointed out as having a very high transmission capacity and leading to the risk of a further surge in infections, President Biden gave the market a shot in the latest speech and said that the government will not re-impose the lockdown measures. Judging from the known clues, the current Omicron variant is not likely to cause fatal symptoms to most patients (especially those who have been fully vaccinated), but because this new variant is still relatively new, uncertainty remains for now. In addition, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Bostic were hawkish. The former stated that it would be “prepared to abandon inflation temporarily” and that the strong US economy will prompt interest rate hikes; the latter stated that if inflation stays near 4% next year, the Fed may raise interest rates more than once. The US Dollar Index rebounded on the eve of the non-agricultural report and ended at 96.07. Today – EZ, UK, US Markit Services PMIs, EZ Retail Sales, US and Canadian Labour Market Reports, US ISM Services, US Factory Orders, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, BoE’s Saunders, Fed’s Bullard Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.32%) From a high @ 1.6680 & slide to 1.6570 yesterday, back to resistance today at 1.6650. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram struggle with 0 line, RSI 56 & cooling. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily 0.0131. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.