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"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 06.09.2016 Euro General overview The EUR/USD strengthened on the back of the weak dollar after disappointing Non Farm Payroll report. The USA market was closed due to Labour Day. Current situation The pair was low volatile on Monday. The euro moved upwards in the Asian session. Then sellers were able to push the price lower in the European and North American sessions. The price remained below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD shows divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI is heading towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations If the downward pressure persists the pair will get below 1.1130. In this scenario, sellers’ next target will be the mark 1.1070. Pound General overview The pound grew due to better-than-expected Service PMI and due to the weakness of the dollar. Current situation The pound rallied and tested the level 1.3360 on Monday. The sterling was able to set a daily high at 1.3372. After reaching the level 1.3360 the pair slightly rolled back and erased some of its gains. The GBP/USD hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. MACD shows convergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations We will place buy orders if the GBP/USD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.3360. If the pair gets below 1.3270 the price may reach 1.3200. Yen General overview The USD/JPY softened on Monday’s trades. The dollar is still under pressure after weaker-than-expected Non Farm Payrolls report. Moreover, the US market was close due to Labor Day celebration. Current situation The pair erased some of its previous gains on Monday. The price decreased from last week highs at 104.30 to the 103.50 region. The instrument remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA broke the 100-EMA and approached the 200-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD formed a divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI left the overbought area, but remained within positive territory. Trading recommendations A break below 102.50 risks a decline back towards the support 101.40. If the USD/JPY returns above 103.50 the instrument may grow to 104.50. AUD/USD General overview The AUD grew on the back of strong Company Gross Operating Profits report. Current situation The AUD/USD grew at the open on Monday. Buyers led the price to the level 0.7600 where the pair turned around and slightly decreased. The instrument tested the 100-EMA and remained above the line. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7540. MACD indicator is close to the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD remains in the positive area buyers will keep control over the market. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Trading recommendations If the AUD/USD remains below 0.7600 the price may fall to 0.7540. Controversially, the instrument will grow to 0.7600. XAUUSD General overview The Gold remained close to the weekly high as disappointing US labor report diminished expectations for another rate hike in 2016. Current situation XAU/USD traded close to the weekly high on Monday. The price was at the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316 per ounce. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations The pair will presume its upward trend if it breaks the resistance 1330. If the instrument gets below 1316 sellers will lead the price to 1300. Brent General overview Oil prices grew after reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will cooperate to support the market. Current situation Brent showed volatile trades on Monday. First, it jumped to the monthly peaks and set a new high at 49.50. Then, the price turned around and sharply fell below 47.50. The price returned some of its losses and slightly grew during North American hours. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. The price is between the 50 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA in the same timeframe. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area. Trading recommendations If the price returns above 48.50 the Brent futures will continue its uptrend. Alternatively, Brent will decrease below 46.50. Dax General overview European stocks traded higher on Monday as markets digested Friday's disappointing U.S employment report. Current situation DAX traded close to the recent highs and spent the day in the 10700 region. The price slightly grew above previous week’s top in the European session and decreased in the American one. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support lies at 10520. MACD is in the positive area. RSI is close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations The index may decrease to 10520 soon. If the price breaks the level the downward movement may continue to 10350. Controversially, the instrument will grow above 10700. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street was closed on Monday due to Labor Day celebration. Current situation S&P500 slightly changed on Monday. The price stayed at previous week’s high and slightly decreased by the end of the trades. The instrument broke the 100-EMA and touched the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is breaking the 100-EMA downwards. All moving averages are moving downwards. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD is in the positive area. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Trading recommendations An uptrend will start as soon, as the index rises above the resistance level 2180. S&P500 may drift below 2165 to test 2150 support area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 05.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar weakened after U.S payrolls report. Non Farm Payrolls slowed down in August and the Fed may postpone the rate hike due to the weak labour market report. Current situation The pair showed volatile trades on Friday. The euro suffered an increased buying pressure right after the Non-farm Payrolls release. Buyers pushed the price from the mark 1.1190 towards the resistance 1.1270 where the euro bullish spike faded and the pair dropped back to the opening price level. The pair closed bearish on Friday. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. The EUR/USD pair is below 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages generate a sell signal. The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the negative territory. Trading recommendations The pair looks increasingly bearish now. A move below 1.1130 will strengthen sellers’ positions. If the EUR/USD consolidates over 1.1270 the upward movement may continue towards 1.1350. Pound General overview Construction PMI in the UK supported the pound which stayed close to the monthly highs. Current situation The price rallied due to the weak unemployment data in the USA. The sterling accelerated its advance and approached the level 1.3360 on Friday. The pair set a new monthly high at 1.3350 on Friday. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. The GBP/USD pair headed away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards after the price. The indicators are within positive territory and support an upward extension. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area now. Trading recommendations The bullish views are getting more popular now. The pound will continue its growth if it breaks the current resistance 1.3360. Alternatively, the price will decrease to 1.3200. Yen General overview The yen softened on the back of US monthly jobs report. Current situation USD/JPY briefly dropped below the 103.50 level and hit fresh 2-day lows right after US NFP report. The price hit 2-day low and attracted buying interest, as a result the price came back to the opening price level and then returned to a growth. The resistance is at 104.50, the support comes in at 103.50. The price remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart which present a strong bullish slope. The moving averages accelerated their growth on Friday. MACD is in the positive area. RSI approached the overbought territory. The indicators generate a buy signal. Trading recommendations The resistance 104.50 is the main buyers’ target right now. Sellers may regain some control if they manage to push the price below 103.50. NZD/USD General overview A weaker-than-expected Non-Farm payrolls report lowered the possibility of a Fed rate hike in September. Current situation The NZD/USD returned to a decrease on Friday. The price spiked immediately after the U.S labor market report to a fresh weekly high. The bullish spike quickly faded and the NZD headed towards the support 0.7250. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The price is approaching the 50-EMA which acts as a support now. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Trading recommendations If the NZD/USD remains above 0.7250 the price may test 0.7320 again. Controversially, the instrument will drop below 0.7250. XAUUSD General overview XAU/USD grew due to risk aversion on the back of a weak US labour market report. Current situation Gold rallied on Friday. The yellow metal gained about 0.85% by the end of the trades. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316 per ounce. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is heading towards the overbought area. Trading recommendations A break above the 1330 resistance would switch the market tone to bullish. Should the XAU/USD break the resistance level and the price will grow to 1340. Controversially, gold futures will fall below 1316. Brent General overview Crude oil Brent got under pressure when skepticism of crude oil output freeze by the OPEC members grew in the market. Current situation The price bounced off the support 45.30 on Friday. Buyers were able to push the price above the resistance 46.50. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. The price broke the 200-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning around, 100-EMA is moving upwards, the 200-EMA is neutral. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold area. Trading recommendations If the price returns below 46.50 (the 200-EMA) the instrument will continue its downward trajectory. Alternatively, Brent shall grow towards 47.50. Dax General overview European stocks grew when U.S. jobs growth appeared to be weaker than expected in August. Current situation Dax jumped to a fresh weekly high of 10731 after the Non Farm payroll report. The price broke upwards the 50 and 100 EMAs. The moving averages are moving upwards which is a buy signal. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support lies at 10520. MACD is in the positive area. RSI approached the overbought area. The indicators generate a buy signal. Trading recommendations If the price breaks the resistance 10700 the index can grow to the August high at 10802. Otherwise, DAX will fall to the support 10520. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street closed higher last week. We believe traders will digest the weaker-than-expected payrolls report today. Current situation S&P500 strengthened and closed Friday bullish. The index advanced north and set a new weekly high at 2183. The instrument broke the 50 and 200 EMAs and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is moving towards the overbought area. Trading recommendations Should the price break the resistance 2180 and buyers will lead the price to the level 2190. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 02.09.2016 Euro General overview A weaker-than-expected U.S. Manufacturing PMI weighed on the dollar and supported the euro. Current situation In the short term our outlook is bullish. The dollar was in a flat ahead of the U.S statistics. The pair traded in a range between the support 1.1130 and the level 1.1160. After a weak Manufacturing PMI the price rallied and approached the mark 1.1200. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. The EUR/USD pair is under 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages generate a sell signal. MACD shows a bullish divergence in the 1 hour timeframe. The RSI indicator headed towards the overbought area. Trading recommendations Technically the EUR/USD may reverse and grow towards 1.1200 and 1.1270. Otherwise, the instrument will continue falling with a target at 1.1070. Pound General overview The pound rallied on the back of strong Manufacturing PMI in the UK. Current situation A better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI supported the GBP/USD pair. The price grew from the session lows at 1.3130 to the daily highs at 1.3270. The pair was also supported by a weak U.S. Manufacturing PMI later the day. The price finished the day in the 1.3220 region. The instrument approached 1.3360 at the start of the North American session. The price broke the 200-EMA and headed from it in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is still downwards. The lines generate a sell signal. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI approached the overbought area. Trading recommendations As long as market holding above 1.3200 the uptrend pressure will continue towards 1.3360. Conversely, the price will return below 1.3200 and further below 1.3100. Yen General overview The dollar remained closed to the 3-week highs ahead of the upcoming Non Farm Payrolls report. Current situation In general, the pair had a positive day on Tuesday. The bullish views are still popular. The USD/JPY continued to advance north and set a new daily high at 103.80. The price slightly decreased at the start of the American Session after a weak statistics. The 50-EMA is crossing upwards the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages are turning upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD shows a bearish divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI left the oversold area. Trading recommendations The pair now seems to be heading towards the 104.00 level. Should the price fixate over that level and the upward trajectory will be continued to 104.50. However, the USD/JPY pair is overbought and may pull back a little. In this scenario, sellers will drag the price down below 103.50. AUD/USD General overview A positive Chinese Manufacturing PMI supported the AUD/USD pair in the Asian session on Tuesday. Current situation The AUD/USD was able to erase some of its losses in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, when sellers returned in the European session they dragged the price down. The AUD was able to recover in the American session on the back of the weaker-than-expected U.S statistics. The resistance is at 0.7540, the support comes in at 0.7470. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages are moving downwards. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is trending towards the overbought area. Trading recommendations If the AUD/USD remains below 0.7540 the price may test 0.7470. Controversially, the instrument will grow to the 0.7570 region. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures traded close to the 2-month lows as traders took wait and see position before the NFP report. Current situation The US currency took control of the flows. The gold remained under pressure on Tuesday’s trades. Sellers were able to push the price lower on Tuesday. The new session lows are marked in the 1300 region. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept trending lower which is a sell signal. The resistance is at 1316, the support comes in at 1300 per ounce. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is heading towards the overbought territory. Trading recommendations Technically, a bearish tone persists in the 4 hours chart. The XAU/USD remains focused on a potential test of 1300. In case of a correction, buyers may push the price to 1316 per ounce. Brent General overview Brent kept falling after a rise in U.S. crude inventories. Moreover, traders focused their attention on a world supply glut which keeps weighing on the oil prices. Current situation The crude oil futures are under pressure. Sellers pushed the price from the session high at 47.23 below the support at 46.50. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. The price broke the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is moving down, the 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards . MACD and RSI are negative which is a sell signal. Trading recommendations We believe that Brent can advance further below 46.50. However, the instrument is oversold and it may pull back a little. The price will continue a downtrend if it consolidates below 46.50. Alternatively, buyers can push the price towards the 47.00 region. Nasdaq Current situation The index pulled back a little from the weekly highs. The price moved away from the 4800 level and approached the mark 4740. The instrument pulled back from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, the 200-EMA is pointing upwards. The resistance is seen at 4770, the support lies at 4740. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is moving towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations If the downward pressure persists Nasdaq will decrease to the 4750 region where it can pull back to 4800. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street opened lower on Tuesday due to negative Manufacturing PMI and negative crude oil dynamics. Current situation The technical picture presents a bearish tone. The price decreased from the weekly highs at 2180. S&P500 broke downwards the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is moving towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations Sellers can take control over the market if the price consolidates below 2165. Otherwise, buyers will return the instrument upwards. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 01.09.2016 Euro General overview A better-than-expected US ADP survey increased the prospect of the Fed interest rate hike. Current situation The dollar preserved a bullish tone across the board. The pair tested fresh 3-week lows on the back of a better-than-expected ADP private employment survey. In general, the EUR/USD stays in a downward channel, advancing south. The price moved away from the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving downwards, the 200-EMA is just turning down. The MACD and RSI indicators maintain bearish slopes within negative territory. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. Trading recommendations The price stays at the support 1.1130. If the EUR/USD pair breaks below this level, then this could lead to renewed selling momentum, possibly towards 1.1070. Pound General overview Positive Consumer Confidence in the UK slightly supported the pound. The index came in at -7 vs. expectations of -8. However, a strong US ADP report weighed on the sterling and the pair resumed its decrease. Current situation The GBP/USD pair showed a mixed dynamics on Wednesday. At first the price grew in the Asian session, then, the instrument turned around and resumed its decrease in the European and North American ones. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000. The indicators (MACD and RSI) generate a sell signal. The price is returning below the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards which is a sell signal. Trading recommendations We are looking for the 1.3100 level break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.3000. Yen General overview The dollar grew vs. the yen due to the latest Fed officials’ comments and the release of encouraging US employment data. Current situation The pair had a positive day on Wednesday. The price kept advancing towards the 103.50 resistance. MACD is heading north within positive territory, RSI is in the overbought territory. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their advance north which is a buy signal. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. Trading recommendations According to the indicators the price is overbought. There is a risk towards the upside. After the break above 103.50, we may see the price extending up to the 104.50 level. In case of the upside the USD/JPY shall return below the 102.00 region. USD/CAD General overview A better-than-expected US ADP Employment survey and disappointing Canadian GDP for Q2 weighed on the Canadian dollar. Current situation The pair resumed its bullish momentum and set a fresh 3-week high which is the highest level since August 10th. The USD/CAD could escalate up to 1.3133. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought territory. In the 4 hours chart the price is advancing from the moving averages which are turning upwards to follow the price. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100. Trading recommendations We expect markets to stay fairly positive. In this potential scenario, the next stop for the USD/CAD could well be around 1.3150. Conversely, the instrument can turn around. In this scenario, sellers will push the price to the 1.3050 region. XAUUSD General overview The XAU/USD traded close to the 2-month low level as investors awaited for the U.S. statistics to evaluate if its economy was ready for a rate hike. Current situation The pair remained in a downward channel, close to its lower boundary. The instrument stayed below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their declines in the mentioned timeframe. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is at 1316, the support comes in at 1300. The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI consolidated near the oversold area. Trading recommendations The pair presents a bearish tone, all indicators recommend short positions. If the gold futures preserve downward momentum its next stop could well be at the 1300 region. Brent General overview The crude oil fell to the 3-week low when oil supplies in the U.S. rose for the second week in a row. Current situation The crude oil is under intense selling pressure. The sellers managed to lead the price from the resistance 48.50 to the level 47.50. The price did not remain at 47.50 and continued advancing south. MACD and RSI slightly changed from yesterday. The indicators generate a sell signal. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. The price broke the 100-EMA on its way down in the 4 hours chart. The instrument is approaching the 200-EMA now. The 50-EMA is moving down, the 100 and 200 EMAs are still heading north. Trading recommendations If the price keeps going down it will reach the level 46.50 soon. DAX General overview European stocks moderately decreased, finishing the second month in a row with a growth. Current situation The index finished the day negatively despite the positive trend. The price stepped away from the weekly high at 10700. DAX is approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support lies at 10520. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is moving from the overbought area. Trading recommendations DAX may decrease to the support 10520 where the 50 and 100 EMAs lie. S&P 500 General overview American stocks opened lower on Wednesday as a strong dollar pressured on oil futures and materials companies. Current situation The index was lower on Wednesday. The S&P500 retreated from the monthly high. Sellers pushed the price from 2180 towards the mark 2165. The price broke the 200-EMA. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI approached the oversold area. Trading recommendations In the medium term, the outlook is bearish. If the price keeps falling it will break the level 2165. The second sellers’ target is 2150. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 31.08.2016 Euro General overview The dollar is strong due to the latest J.Yellen’s comments about growing possibility of the Fed rate hike. Current situation The pair traded near the fresh lows on Thursday. The price stayed below the broken 200-EMA and the current support at 1.1150 in the 4 hours chart. Traders were inactive ahead of the upcoming statistics in the USA. The 200-EMA is neutral while the 50 and 100 Day EMAs are turning down. In the 1 hour chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs present a strong bearish slope. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are crossing the 200-EMA downwards. The moving averages generate a sell signal. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. The indicators MACD and RSI remained flat within negative territory, maintaining the risk towards the downside. Trading recommendations The trend is objectively bearish. If the price remains below the 200-EMA and the 50 and 100 EMAs will advance south in the 4 hours chart we may see a downtrend continuation. The level 1.1130 is the first sellers’ target. Pound General overview Pound weakened on Thursday following the weak data. At the same time the U.S dollar is strong on the back of the expectations that the Fed will raise the rate this year. Current situation The GBP/USD fell back towards its weekly low on the earlier Thursday's trades; however, the sterling regained some of its losses in the American Session. The current resistance is seen at 1.3200, the support exists at 1.3100. The indicators (MACD and RSI) are negative. MACD generate a sell signal. The RSI bounced from the oversold area. The price returned below the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving close to each other in the mentioned timeframe. The 200-EMA is hovering above them. All lines are moving downwards and show a sell signal. Trading recommendations The indicators recommend short positions. A downtrend will start as soon, as the pair falls below the support level 1.3050. Yen General overview The pair grew on Thursday when Overall Household Spending did not meet traders’ expectations. Besides, positive Consumer Confidence index strengthened the dollar across the board. Current situation The USD/JPY traded near fresh 3-week highs. The growing impulse continued, the instrument accelerated its growth. The 4 hours chart shows that MACD and RSI are flat within positive territory. The price advanced north from the 200-EMA. There are some risks towards the upside now. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. Trading recommendations This loss of the 102.50 level is now pointing to a further period of upward movement to come. The level 103.00 is the first buyers' target. However, the USD/JPY is oversold and we expect an upside any moment now. Should the pair roll back we will sell with a target at 101.40. NZD/USD General overview The NZD/USD pair was under pressure as the fresh hopes for a U.S. rate hike in 2016 continued to weigh on the kiwi. Current situation The NZD/USD remained under pressure. The price continued to grind lower after an unsuccessful attempt to regain the 0.7250 level. Buyers were just able to push the quotes towards 0.7260 where sellers got the ball and lead the price down. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7150. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI continued moving towards the oversold area. The pair left behind the 100-EMA and is trending towards the 200-EMA which acts as a support for the price. The 200-EMA is still bullish, the 50 and 100 Day EMAs are turning down fallowing the price. Trading recommendations Moving below the 0.7270 support (100-EMA) would suggest a resumption of the bear trend. The NZD/USD shall decrease to the 0.7180 region where the 200-EMA lies. A successful break of the 200-EMA will prolong a downtrend towards 0.7150. XAUUSD General overview Gold softened due to the latest Fed officials’ remarks about the next U.S. rate hike. Current situation The tone is still negative in the market, the pair closed bearish yesterday. Sellers met a solid support at the 1316 mark which were not able to break at once. The price rolled back to 1325.40 where the XAU/USD turned around and returned back to the support level. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316. The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI consolidated near the oversold area. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs present a strong bearish slope. The moving averages are trending downwards which is a sell signal. Trading recommendations The XAU/USD is now under the risk of falling under the level of 1316. A break below this mark risks a decline back towards the support at 1310. Brent General overview Traders focused on the weekly report on U.S stockpiles of crude and refined products. Better-than-expected U.S. Consumer Confidence index supported the dollar and weighed on Brent futures. Current situation Brent showed low volatile trades during Asian and European sessions on Thursday. The instrument became active in the American session where the price had a sharp drop from the resistance 49.50 to the support at 48.50. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI advanced to the oversold area. Brent futures bounced from the 50-EMA and approached the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing upwards. The moving averages do not give a clear signal. Trading recommendations We are bearish on the Brent. All eyes are right now at the support level 48.50. If Brent break the level, the price may fall to the 47.50 level. Nasdaq General overview Wall Street traded lower on Thursday as traders waited for new clues for the possible rate hike from the Fed. Current situation The technical picture presents a bearish tone. Bears are gradually gaining more overall control. Traders led the price from the level 4800 to the support at 4770. The instrument bounced from the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and 200-EMAs are trending upwards, the 50-EMA is pointing downwards. The resistance is seen at 4800, the support lies at 4770. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is heading towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations If Nasdaq makes a breakout of 4770 that may trigger an additional downward momentum towards 4740. S&P 500 Current situation The index had a negative day on Thursdays. The price moved away from the resistance 2180 towards the support at 2165. The instrument bounced downwards from the 50 and 100 Day EMAs which are parallel to each other. The S&P500 is in-between the 200-EMA and the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI moved away from the oversold area and is neutral now. Trading recommendations The index now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 2165. Break below 2165 would open the way to 2150 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 30.08.2016 Euro General overview The dollar was stable on Monday on the back of J.Yellen's comments plus previous comments by FOMC’s officials which intensified expectations of a potential rate hike by the Fed at the September meeting. Current situation The EUR/USD continued to decrease on Monday and found a decent support in the 1.1170 area in the North American session. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. The indicators MACD and RSI resumed their declines within negative territory. MACD indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI entered the oversold area. The price broke downwards the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning downwards and generate a sell signal. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the support level 1.1130. If the price breaks this support, the instrument may fall further that should send this market looking for the 1.1070 level. Pound General overview The GBP/USD was under pressure on Monday. The market was closed due to the Banking holiday and sterling traded under influence of external factors. Current situation The pound extended its decline against the U.S dollar on Monday. The pair broke the 1.3100 level and consolidated below it. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000. The indicators (MACD and RSI) are negative. MACD generate a sell signal. The RSI is oversold which signals about a possible correction. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart, however, the pound did not move far from the lines and stayed below them. The moving averages are turning downwards and generate a sell signal. Trading recommendations We remain bearish on the pair. Once we consolidate below the 1.3100 mark, we think that the 1.3000 level will be next. Yen General overview The dollar grew to the 2-week high on the back of the renewed hopes that the Fed might raise the rates in September. Japanese stocks supported the dollar as well. Current situation The USD/JPY gapped higher and extended its gains on Monday. The pair found a solid resistance at 102.50 which did not let the price further upwards. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area. Both indicators generate a buy signal. The USD/JPY broke the 200-EMA and headed away from it in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning upwards. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish, for a growth towards 102.50 resistance area. AUD/USD General overview AUD fell due to Fed officials’ comments about strengthening the monetary policy in the nearest future. Current situation The pair touched a four-week low on Monday, however, AUD/USD managed to recover some of its lost ground. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7540. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI continued consolidating within oversold area. The 4 hours chart shows that the price is below the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 is crossing the 100 EMA downwards and both lines are moving down. Trading recommendations We believe the AUD/USD will remain under pressure. The current weakness is expected to extend further to 0.7470. XAUUSD General overview The dollar grew following the Yellen’s hawkish comments which weighed on the gold futures. Current situation The XAU/USD gapped downwards and set new lows on Monday. The pair traded in red figures and stayed close to the level 1316. The instrument partly recovered in the North American session. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. The 50-EMA is crossing downwards the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving downwards which is a sell signal. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a decrease towards 1316 support area. Brent General overview Brent remained under pressure as traders doubt that the OPEC members will limit oil output at the September meeting. Current situation Brent futures closed bearish yesterday. The instrument remained in a side channel between 49.00-49.50 levels during the trades. The resistance is at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Brent futures broke the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA broke the 200-EMA upwards in the mentioned timeframe. All lines are still moving upwards. Trading recommendations In the near term, the outlook is neutral until we get Crude Oil Stock report on Thursday. DAX General overview European stocks were under pressure as traders digested the latest Yellen’s comments about possible rate hike by the Fed. Current situation The index was neutral and stayed close to the 10520 level on Monday. The price traded in a narrow side channel limited by the levels 10468 and 10560. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is neutral. The 4 hours chart shows that the price is sandwiched between the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 50-EMA is turning downwards, the 100 and 200 Day EMAs are still moving upwards. The moving averages still generate a buy signal. Trading recommendations The level 10520 stays between the price and its further decrease. Shall the index break the level and the road towards 10350 will be opened. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street traded higher on Monday due to U.S inflation and consumer reports. Current situation The index rallied on the back of the positive data on Monday. Traders were able to push the price from the level 2165 to the 2180 mark. S&P500 closed the day bullish. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI moved away from the oversold area and approached the overbought one. The price bounced upwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The index grew and managed to touch the 50 and 100 Day EMAs. The moving averages are moving upwards which is a buy signal. Trading recommendations If a bullish momentum is preserved the index will continue growing. The next buyers’ target is the mark 2180. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 29.08.2016 EUR / USD General overview EURUSD pair shows a positive trend, the second day in a row. Current situation At the same time, the buyers are not strong enough to settle above the key resistance level of 1.1291, Trading recommendations There is a possibility of correction, towards the key support level of 1.1113 USD / JPY: General overview Japan national base index of the consumer prices (y / y), was -0.5% in July, with forecasts of -0.4%. The base consumer price index in Tokyo (y / y), was 0.4%, the forecast of -0.3% in August. Current situation Volatility for the pair USD / JPY remains very low- most of the participants are out of the market in anticipation of Yellen speech. In the current situation, buyers and sellers are in balance, as the price is around the middle level of the channel 100.30-100.40. Trading recommendations After today weak statistics data, there was a small probability of correction upwards, on expectations of new stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan. Nevertheless, exit of the consolidation is based on Yellen performance and much will depend on its words. AUD / USD: General overview The pair continues to consolidate in a narrow range 0.7600-0.7650. The situation is not clear- breaking from consolidation can be in any direction. Trading recommendations We tend to think that before AUDUSD test the key level of 0.7660 the pair will drop down to levels 0.7500-0.7550. NZD / USD: General overview The pair NZD / USD is continuing a slow but steady growth moving along a rising trend line. Current situation In NZD/USD market bulls have moved the price above the key resistance level 0,7300-0.7314. Trading recommendations However, there was not confirming settlement signal still; we do not exclude a pullback on volatility. XAUUSD: General overview During yesterday's trading, gold moved to insignificant correction, the market pulled back to levels of 1325, which could be due to profit-taking and short covering before Friday's session. Trading recommendations We expect pullback to procced to 1310-1315 levels where the medium-term demand is located. However, the second half of the day promises to be volatile. Brent General overview The oil market has stabilized in the support level of 49 dollars per barrel. At the same time moving above also failed. The news background still provides speculative driver for growth (the upcoming Energy Forum in Algeria, Iran's readiness to cooperate with OPEC). Fundamental factors are opposite to market gains (crude inventories rise in the United States). Trading recommendations FED position on interest rate hike will help to get out of consolidation- much will depend on US dollar market. We look forward to continuing consolidation in these ranges. $49-$51 – market range for upcoming week. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 26.08.2016 EUR/USD General review Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair showed downward movement, breaking and consolidating below 1.1291 level. At the same time, today, after the publication of business climate index in Germany, the pair EURUSD, significantly strengthened, returning to the level of 1.1291. Today US data showed that core orders for durable goods rose in July by 1.5%, compared to June, exceeding the expectations of analysts. The volume of durable goods orders in the US is growing faster, adding 4.4% in July, compared to June, with growth forecasts of 3.3%. The number of initial claims for for unemployment benefit in the US totaled 261,000, with projections of 265,000. Current situation Pushing back off the level 1.1245 the pair become stronger in the area of 1.1295. Market activity has been reduced. Trading recommendations We expect consolidation trade within the boundaries of 1.1245-1.1325, 1.1340. At least before the head of FED speech. JPY/USD General review The market situation in USD/JPY currency pair has not changed. The pair continues to consolidate within the channel 99.90-100.79. Yesterday the pair USD / JPY, has once again pushed off the bottom border. Trading recommendations Our forecast remains the same- we expect sideway trade until the results of Yellen speech. However, the likelihood of the continuation of the downward movement after consolidation given the technical factors become higher. AUD / USD General review Yesterday, on the daily chart the AUD/USD formed a doji reversal pattern, and then, during the Asian session, bulls resumed growth to the test 0.7650. Support is in the area of 0.7595. Resistance area is at 0.7650-0.7660 Trading recommendations The market will continue to consolidate in the specified range. However, technical factors indicate the possible pullback to the area 0.7500-0.7550. XAU/USD General review During yesterday's trading, gold price sharply dropped breaking and consolidating below the level of 1335, -1336. Trading recommendations We expect the gold decrease will continue. Next support is around 1315 to 1309. Brent General review Today oil prices is a bit stronger, despite yesterday's data on US oil inventories. Current situation Brent oil futures returned above the level of 49 dollars, approaching the psychological level of $ 50 per barrel. The market strengthened on strong today US data. Trading recommendations In addition to Yellen performance, the market will focus on the US statistical date. We expect the decline in volatility and further consolidation on these levels before Friday's news. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 25.08.2016 EUR/USD General review EUR/USD was unable to consolidate above the important 1.1320 level. Current situation Today, the pair EUR/USD, started to lose, thus breaking through and consolidating below the important 1.1320 level. The pair is heading toward 1.1245 level Trading recommendation We expect the EURUSD dropping to slow down near the support level of 1.1245. Nevertheless, in the wake of the European currency the weakening the market may drop to the basic support level at the 1.1195-1.1210 area JPY/USD General review According to our forecast the USDJPY continues to trade within the range of 99.90-100.78 Current situation Trading activity is low. Since the morning European session USDJPY trades around the median level of the specified range 100.30-100.40 Trading recommendation We expect that by the end of the week the pair will continue to consolidate within the boundaries of the specified channel. Meanwhile, the level of 100.78 has become a significant resistance level. XAU/USD: General review As we expected during this week gold has begun to breakthrough from the medium-term channel 1.1356-1.1358 with downward direction Current situation After breaking through the resistance zone of 1.1330-1.1336 market is dropping lower. Trading recommendations The next support zone is located near 1.1320-1.1325. We expect that the market is moving towards these levels. Strategic support is around 1.1310 AUD / USD: General review Yesterday, the pair failed to consolidate above the level of 0.7676- traders used to the level for new sales. Trading recommendations Technically the picture is composed in favor of further decline. The first significant level of support is in the 0.7496-0.7500 area. BRENT: General review Oil prices resumed the decline after a rollback of in the area of $ 50 a barrel. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that US crude stocks rose 4.5 million barrels last week. Current situation Price is consolidating in anticipation of the official data on crude inventories by US Department of Energy above the level of $ 49 per barrel. Trading recommendations If the figures will be similar to API data, this might lead the market in the area of $ 48- $ 48.50 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 24.08.2016 EUR/USD General review EURUSD, slightly weakened, after a positive start of today trading, amid a mixed statistics for the euro area. Current situation On H4 chart, there is reversal candle pattern, appeared after pair pulled back to the key level 1.1320 area. Trading recommendations Middle term upward trend is still in the game. As the closest resistance level is the area of 1.1461. However, in the current situation of uncertainty we remain out of the market. JPY/USD General review Business activity index in Japan manufacturing sector in August increased to 49.6 against 49.3 in July. During the Asian session, the pair USD / JPY, continued to drop. Current situation The pair remains within the range we marked 99.91-101.78. We expect the market will again rebound from the bottom level of the range of 99.91 and to pull back at least to the balance area of 100.30. Trading recommendations At the same time we note that the probability increased that USDJPY will trade below 99.70-99.90 support minimum, to renew local minimums. XAU/USD: General review In the Asian session gold returned within medium-term range 1336-1358. Current situation However, gold remains under pressure-the last pullback might be triggered by closing stops. Returns above 1346 will mark the strengthening of bull positions. Trading recommendations We expect the consolidation to continue with returning to balance level of the range 1.1345 AUD / USD: General review After yesterday's growth and the opening gap filling, the market continued to gain, as pair returns to the key level of 0.7660. Trading recommendations We expect the movement to slow down in front of 0.7660 resistance level and the kind of consolidation. However, attempts to settle above 0.7660 are likely. BRENT: General review Oil prices continue to decline, amid investor concerns over rising supplies from Iraq and Nigeria, as well as growth in the number of drilling rigs in the United States. Trading recommendations The oil market continues to drop and today traded at around $ 48.70. US Inventory data is in the focus tomorrow. Today we expect the consolidation in the range of 48.50-48.70 dollars per barrel, followed by a transition to a relative growth. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 23.08.2016 EUR / USD General review The pair EURUSD opened with a slight downward gap at the beginning of the session, but market played back most of the losses and return to resistance level 1.1312-1.1320 area. Current situation Last week the final consolidation above 1.1320 failed to happen. Today's upward pullback from 1.1272 to 1.1312 could be a result of the closing stops. Trading recommendations EUR/USD trend remain bullish as pair is trading above the 61.8 Fibonacci extension. However, the situation is not clear – upward and downward movements are both possible- we stay out of the market to clarify the situation. USD / JPY: General review USD/JPY pair has greatly strengthened during the Asian session today amid strengthening of the US dollar. Yesterday the FED official Fischer voiced the opinion that the regulator is to return to interest rate hike before the end of this year. Current situation The gap was formed at the start of trading day as USDJPY market opened close to 100.77-resistance level. This was followed by a pullback, but the gap was not filled- which might be a strong bullish signal. During the European session, the USDJPY pulled back to 100.32. Trading recommendations In today's market uncertainty, we expect the range trading within 99.90-107.78 AUD / USD General review During the Asian session, the pair AUD / USD, dropped below the key resistance level of 0.7672. At the end of the previous week's market AUDUSD failed to consolidate above 0.7672, which could mean the development of medium-term growth. We do not exclude attempts to test this level in the near future. Current situation In terms of technical analysis, it is preferable to wait for consolidation with the possible development of the downward correction. Close support area is at 0.7540-0.7580 levels XAU/USD: General review Amid US dollar gains, the gold price have made an attempt to exit dawnward from the medium-term channel 1.1336-1.1358. Current situation Gold is testing the lower boundary of the medium channel at 1336, Trading recommendations The development of a downward movement is likely if the market close below 1.1333-1.1336. However, we expect a short-term return of into the designated channel on technical factors. Brent General review Oil has completed the last week in the area of 51 dollar per barrel. Current situation After a week of growth, the expected correction began to implement. Talks about a possible increase of the Fed rate, and the US dollar gains - will put pressure on the oil market. Trading recommendations We're careful with predictions about the depth and strength of correction. Nevertheless, the nearest support is in the area of $ 49 per barrel. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 22.08.2016 EUR/USD General review Today the pair EURUSD, resumed its decline, after new Dudley and Williams comments has confirmed its position on rate hike in the near future. Current situation Technically, there are no reversal signals and the pullback seems to be correction however pair EURUSD may fall to the key support level of 1.1113. Trading recommendations At the same time, the medium-term upward trend still persist- in which the immediate goal of the bulls is a key resistance level of 1.1461. JPY/USD General review During the Asian session USD / JPY has strengthened against the background of the general growth of the dollar. Trading recommendations The probability of a corrective pullback saved up for testing of a key resistance level JPY101,01 XAU/USD: General review Gold quotes fell to the lower border of the medium-term range 1336-1358. Trading recommendations On the four-hour chart a reversal candle pattern has formed, after which there is a probability of correction upwards, to the upper limit of the range. In case of breakdown, the upward movement to the key resistance level of 1357.64 will follow. Brent General review Oil prices continue to rise and today quotes test key resistance level of 51.01. Trading recommendations In case of breakdown and consolidation above $ 51, the bulls can move the market, towards the key resistance level of 53.53. In the case of rebound from the key resistance level of 51.01, we can expect a downward correction to the key support level of 48.01. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 19.08.2016 EUR / USD General overview A further weakening of the US currency brought EURUSD pair up from yesterday's consolidation levels. The current upward trend in the EURUSD market persists and is gaining momentum. Current situation Growth is restrained by a significant resistance level of EUR 1.1320. Support zone is located in the Eur 1.1207-Eur 1.1230. Trading recommendations We do not exclude the possible rollback from EUR 1.1320. Long positions are suitable on passing and confident settlement above this level. JPY / USD General review During the Asian session, the pair USD / JPY, fell to a new level of support JPY99.90, ending yesterday's technical pullback upwards. Japanese data were contradictory. Japan's trade surplus in July amounted to 514 billion, which is almost twice more what economist expected - 248 billion. Japan imports volume (y/y) decreased by -24.7%, while expectation was a decline of -20.6%. Current situation Today, the pressure on the Japanese currency strengthened. The next support level – is local minimum at JPY98.93. Trading recommendations The market is bearish and is trading at local minimums . We are not sure of further dropping. However, passing level JPY99.90 will sends the quotes lower. XAU / USD General review Gold continues to trade within a medium-term channel $ 1335- $ 1358. A further weakening of US dollar sent a quotation in the upper range of the specified Range. Consolidation continues. Trading activity is below average. Trading recommendations Exit from the consolidation is delayed. Inside channel trading with short stops is preferable. AUD / USD General review The data on Australia economy keeps on appearing - the number of jobs grew by 26.2 thousand in July, higher than the forecasts. The level of the Australian unemployment rate fell in July to 5.7%, from 5.8% in June. Current situation The Australian dollar finished yesterday's correction and on Daily is trying to stay above the significant 0.7670 level. Prospects for further midterm growth are strong at least to 0.7820. Trading recommendations if market close above 0.7620 is it likely to gain futher. NZD / USD General review The New Zealand dollar came close to strategic resistance 0.7300-0.7320. In case of breakdup we can talk about the medium-term bullish trend to 0.75-0.76. Trading recommendations We consider it reasonable to wait for the development of the current situation in the market and remain flat- uncertainty is high. Longs only after the passage and settlemnet above 0.7310-0.7315 BRENT General review Contrary to our expectations the overbought oil managed to consolidate above $ 49 and reached the area of $ 50 and then $ 50.25 Current situation It looks like the market is moving up to the local maximum of 2016 years- $ 51 per barrel. Yesterday, the market was supported by inventory data. However, the annual level of the US oil production is still declining. It is a kind a sign of speculative component in this movement. Trading recommendations The rally in the oil market continues. Near term resistance is at $ 51 per barrel area. Support is around $ 49-67- $ 49 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 18.08.2016 EUR / USD General overview The EUR/USD trend remains bullish as pair is trading above the 61.8 Fibonacci extension (minimum-maximum uptrend 2000-2008), which passes near the level EUR 1.1995. Market is in consolidation mode. Current situation Despite the fact that in the general market sentiment got worse- the correction in the stock markets and the US currency gains, today the EURUSD pair is trading steadily at EUR 1.1270, consolidating after yesterday's growth from EUR1.1180 to EUR 1.1323 Trading recommendations We expect ranged consolidation trade between 1.1195-1.1235, the old resistance area, which now acts as a strong support, and resistance area 1.1300-1.1322 and above. JPY / USD General overview Today during the Asian session, the USDJPY has successfully implemented our yesterday's forecast. The pair pulled back to JPY100.77 and further to the area of 101.14, where stops and limits got triggered to lead USDJPY back to JPY100.74. In addition to the US dollar gains caused by Dudley speaking, the Japanese currency has been weakened by Japan Minister who said that financial authorities are ready to intervene if the exchange rate levels will be inappropriate. Trading recommendations According to our forecasts, this market will be trading around the 100.77 level and within the limits JPY99.90-JPY101.67 range for some time. The negative downward trend is intact. XAU / USD General overview Gold continues to trade within a medium-term channel $1335- $1358. Current situation Today gold market consolidate at the level of the balance price of this range at $1344. Trading activity during the day is reduced, for some time gold will stay consolidated within this range. Trading recommendations We note that the chance for downward consolidation breakout increased. (support at $1,335). However the likehood of the Fed rate hike can dramatically change the balance of power in this market. BRENT OIL General overview Yesterday oil quotes came close to the resistance level of 49 dollars per barrel. After 4 days of growth, the market looks overbought and correction seems possible. US dollar gains will put pressure on the oil market as well. Published today, the data from US Information Energy Agency shows that last week, crude oil inventories have fallen by -2.508 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of 0.522 million barrels. Trading recommendations The publication of the last Fed meeting protocols can also exert a strong influence on the oil market. However at the American session markets keeps on gaining trying to settle above $49. SP 500 General overview Concerns that the Fed will hike rates broke out with renewed vigor. Data on industrial production and the construction of US homes were positive, though accepted by the market negatively. American markets shifted to correction. The news of a possible rate hike in the US in the near future can dramatically change the market sentiment and lead to a weakening of risk assets demand and strengthening of the American currency. Current situation Today, mini SP 500 futures continue to show a negative trend, testing the key support level of 2167-2170 points. Market sentiment is negative. Trading recommendations The market is testing the important support level of 2170 points. The passage of this level will trigger a further longs sale -off dropping the market to 2160 and beyond 2150 points. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 17.08.2016 EURUSD The European currency was finally able to break through a strategic 61.8 Fibonacci extension level (minimum-maximum uptrend of 2000-2008), which takes place in the region of EUR 1.1995 level. This means that in the medium-long term market returns to the bull trend. The fundamental picture is favorable toward this. The US dollar continues to lose ground, weakening against other major currencies. Dollar index has dropped in the area of two-month lows below 95 and 94 points. The negative dynamics of the USD is basicaly due to a decrease in the likelihood of rate hike in this year by the Fed. Today's statistics showed that US inflation remains at current boundaries. US consumer price index in July rose 0.1% compared to June, below expectations of analysts, who had forecast an increase of 0.2%. On the contrary, strong data from Europe supported the European currency. Nevertheless, we believe that resistance at 1.1322-1.1330, will not be passed immediately, and the market expects a pullback and consolidation in the 1.1195-1.1235 area, the old resistance area, which now acts as a strong support. In the medium term, we expect the pair is to gain to the area EUR1.1440-EUR1.1500 USD / JPY: Today during the Asian session, the Japanese Yen continued to strengthen due to the US dollar weakening. USD / JPY pair is trading near an important strategic level of JPY100. As a result of downward movement the markets now below JPY100.77 support level. The probability to go lower seems to be valid, for the weakness of the US dollar promotes it. However, we believe that the pair is kind oversold and a psychological level of JPY99.90-JPY100 will continue to restrain the downward movement. Before going lower we shall see at least one more pullback upwards. From a technical point of view, at the American session, the pair turned to correction and rolled back into the area JPY100.42 JPY100.77 where we can expect the resumption of sales. However, we are cautious about quick passage JPY100-99.90 level. XAUUSD: From a fundamental point of view, the situation in the gold market develops interestingly. It is possible that the main phase of the current cycle of growth in this market is behind us. Reduced likelihood of a rate hike this year in the US- is a negative factor for precious metal. At the same time, the gradual return of risk appetite transfers the capital out of the gold market in the stock assets. Nevertheless it from a technical point of view, gold is trading in the mid-channel of 1335-1358 and we expect that some time the gold market will remain in this range. However, we note that the probability of testing the lower boundary of this range (US $ 1335 support per troy ounce) increases. BRENT Yesterday, Brent crude oil futures tested the level of 48.5 dollars per barrel, but failed to stay above. During the day the market was also unable to move higher. Whereas yesterday's impressive growth, there are reasons to expect a rollback on the factor of possible profit-taking. In the medium term the probability of Brent return to $ 50 area is high, at least while speculation about Energy Forum in Algeria remains in the game. From a technical point of view, the oil enters the high resistance area 48.50 -49 dollars per barrel. S@P 500 US stock market today moved lower, retreating from historical highs. However, it may be noted that in despite restrained market dynamics and consolidation, risk appetite continues to dominate and the demand for stock assets is maintained. We expect the return to growth in the middle of the week after the Fed minutes published. From technical point of view first support is around 2176.76 points, and the next in the area of 2169 points. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 16.08.2016 Euro General overview The dollar softened against its main rivals as the disappointing U.S statistics kept weighing on it. Current situation The euro strengthened on Monday on the back of the weak dollar. Traders were able to push the price upwards to the 1.1200 region. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. Indicators generate a buy signal. The price is moving away from the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages range is expanding, the 50-EMA is moving away from the 100 and 200 EMAs. Moving averages generate a buy signal. Trading recommendations The price approached the resistance 1.1200. If the EUR/USD breaks the level the growth trajectory will be continued towards 1.1270. Pound General overview The pound erased its latest gains as the delay with leaving the EU returned uncertainty to the markets. Current situation The pound remained under pressure, the sterling continued to approach the 31-yeal low. The instrument suffered a short lived downward movement, traders pushed the price below 1.2900.The current resistance is seen at 1.2900, the support exists at 1.2700. The indicators (MACD and RSI) remained unchanged, both of them generate a sell signal. The price headed away from the moving averages (50, 100 and 200) which are pointing lower in the 4 hours chat. The moving averages generate a sell signal. Trading recommendations We remain bearish on the pair. Once we break below the 1.2900 level, we think that the 1.2700 level will be next. Yen General overview The yen slightly weakened on the back of the softer than expected GDP data of Q2. Current situation The dollar slightly recovered on Monday, however, we preserve a bearish outlook. The USD/JPY remained below 101.40 by the end of the trades. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is neutral. The price remained below the 50-EMA which extended lower. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance for the pair. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a fall towards 100.40 support area. Brent General overview The Brent grew and reached the 3-week high on the expectations of the OPEC meeting next month. Current situation Brent strengthened, the price traded in an upper channel and approached its upper limit by the end of the trades. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel. MACD is in the positive area. If MACD remains positive buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI entered the overbought area. Brent futures moved away from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the resistance level 48.50. If Brent breaks the level it will keep growing towards 49.50. The instrument may pull back below 47.50 which is a good chance to buy on a dip. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street traded higher on Monday, the stocks set new all-times highs on the back of strong oil futures. Current situation Traders pushed the index higher and S&P500 was able to escalate up to 2190. The resistance is seen at 2200, the support is at 2180. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI moved away from the overbought area and stopped in a neutral area. The 50-EMA moved away from the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The price is still well above its moving averages. The moving averages are moving upwards in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations If a bullish momentum is preserved the index will continue setting new highs. The next buyers’ target is the mark 2200. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
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"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
15/08/2016 Euro General overview The euro strengthened on the back of the U.S weak statistics. Retail Sales and PPI index came in worse than expected. Now traders diminished their expectations for another rate increase in the current year. Current situation The dollar partly weakened on the U.S data, but soon reversed and pushed the EUR/USD down. The price returned to the levels where it was before the Retail Sales and PPI releases and ended the day bearish. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD remained in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought area and is heading to the south. The price is hovering above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are still forming a narrow channel in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are pointing upwards. Trading recommendations Sellers might force the pair to resume its downward trajectory. The price may drift below 1.1130 to test the 1.1080 support area. Pound General overview The pound is under pressure as the BoE relaunched its quantitative easing program. Current situation The pound remained under pressure despite the weak dollar. The sterling tried to grow, but the 50-EMA limited its growth. The GBP/USD had to return to the support 1.2900. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.2900. The indicators (MACD and RSI) still generate a sell signal. The 50-EMA is a resistance where the price bounced downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are heading lower. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a drop towards 1.2900 support area. Yen General overview The yen rose on Friday after disappointing U.S statistics: Retail Sales showed a flat and PPI decreased which rose concerns over the strength of the U.S economy. Current situation The yen strengthened in the market amid risk aversion. Bears have the ball now and pushed the pair below the 101.40 level. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI stayed close to the oversold area. The instrument bounced from the 100-EMA which stands around the resistance 102.50 in the 4 hours chart. The price dropped and returned below the 50-EMA. The moving averages direction is downwards. Trading recommendations The loss of the 101.40 level will point to a further period of downside to come. A break below this mark risks a decline towards the support at 100.40. USD/CAD General overview The commodity currencies ignored oil prices sharp growth and remained under pressure together with the U.S. dollar. Current situation The pair presented a modest bearish tone. The USD/CAD continued to grind lower and approached the support level of 1.2900. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900. The indicators generate a sell signal. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. RSI is close to the oversold area. The price is heading from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. All moving averages are turning down. Trading recommendations If the downward pressure persists we think that the 1.2900 level will be the next sellers' target. GOLD General overview Investors are concerned over the global market prospects and chose gold as a safe asset. Current situation The gold remained in an upward channel close to its lower limit. Traders pushed the price lower to the support 1330 by the end of the trades. The resistance is seen at 1350, the support stands at 1330. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is still neutral. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and stopped just below the last in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are still trending higher. Trading recommendations We still support the idea of a decrease towards 1130. Brent General overview Oil prices spiked due to the dollar weakening which holds the quotes near the day peaks. Current situation The Brent holds a bullish tone. The price left the descending channel and formed an upward now. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. The indicators MACD and RSI recommend long positions. The price broke the long-term 200-EMA upwards and moved away from the line. The 50-EMA is breaking the 100-EMA upwards. Trading recommendations If the Brent remains above 200-EMA which stands around the 46.50 region the growth will be continued. The level 47.50 is the next buyers’ target. Nasdaq General overview Wall Street weakened after weaker-than-expected Retail Sales and Production Prices report. Despite the positive labour market data the Fed may wait with the rate hike until it gets a solid proof over the strength of the economy. Current situation Nasdaq refreshed its new local highs. The price returned to the resistance at 4800 where it ended the trading week. The resistance is at 4800, the support stands at 4700. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is close the overbought area. The price hovered above the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are still pointing upwards. Trading recommendations If the instrument breaks above the level 4800 the price will grow to the next resistance at 4900. S&P 500 General overview The U.S stocks traded lower on Friday right the next day they had reached their historical peaks since 1999 on the back of the weaker-than-expected U.S statistics. Current situation The index set a new all-time high at the mark 2184.8 and is now decisively trading a few pips below this mark. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved away from the overbought area and is trending downwards. The moving averages have slightly changed from Friday. Trading recommendations S&P500 shall struggle for the mark 2180. If buyers win the price will climb towards 2200. Alternatively, sellers will push the price towards 2165. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
12.08.2016 Euro General overview Dollar traded higher on the back of the strong Jobless Claims report which showed a drop in the claims number. Current situation The market little changed on Thursday. The pair could escalate up to 1.1180, however, the rally was short-lived and weak. The price remained in the same range. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD still points to the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI stays close to the overbought area. The moving averages slightly changed from yesterday. Trading recommendations If the EUR/USD keeps growing its next stop could well be at the 1.1200 region. Should the pair soften, the price will drop to 1.1050. Pound General overview The GBP/USD ignored the U.S labour market data and oil prices growth. Investors’ attention now turns to the retail sales and consumer sentiment releases which may determine its further movement. Current situation The pair remained in red figures. Traders pushed the price lower on Thursday. The pound is now decisively trading above the 1.2900 mark. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. RSI approached the oversold area. The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument remained below the bearish 50-EMA which extended its decline. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are heading lower. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD remained under pressure. We are looking for the current support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.2900 and further out 1.2700. Yen General overview The yen erased all its latest gains after the Jobless Claims Report. Now traders are demanding further action from the Bank of Japan. If the pair continues softening the central bank will have to act accordingly. Current situation The market was low volatile during the European Session on Thursday and became active only after U.S Jobless Claims report. The dollar strengthened on the back of the strong U.S labor data. Traders were able to push the price higher. The instrument broke the level 101.40 and kept rallying. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the oversold area and is heading upwards. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. After breaking the lines the pair continued advancing north. Now the 200-EMA acts as a resistance for the USD/JPY. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations We believe the USD/JPY will move on to test the next bullish target at 102.00, where the 200-day moving average lies. NZD/USD General overview The kiwi grew to one-month high following the RBNZ decision to cut the rate by 0.25%. Current situation Sellers seem to have returned to the market. After reaching the one-month high the price reversed and headed downwards. Traders were able to lead the price from the mark 0.7335 to 0.7225. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7150. The indicators generate a sell signal. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. RSI bounced from the overbought area. The price is approaching the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are still trending upwards. Trading recommendations The bearish views are getting more popular. We believe the pressure will persist. The next sellers' stop could well be at the 0.7150 region. GOLD General overview Gold got under selling pressure after the positive U.S labour report. Analysts are evaluating a possible timing of a rate hike by the Fed. Current situation The pair spent Thursday in a narrow range 1341-1346. All buyers’ attempts to push the price higher failed. Sellers returned to the market after a bunch of the U.S statistics. The resistance is seen at 1350, the support stands at 1330. MACD indicator is still at the centerline. RSI is neutral. The instrument traded above the 50-EMA which acts as a support for the price in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are still trending higher. Trading recommendations Gold futures got under pressure. If the pressure persists the next sellers’ target will be at 1330 where a strong bullish 200-EMA lies in the 4 hours chart. Brent General overview Brent strengthened during the North American session on Thursday. The prices recovered after a sharp drop on the back of the concerns over the world oversupply. Current situation Brent spiked and set a new weekly high at 46.30. The instrument is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 46.50. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. The price bounced from the 50-EMA, broke the 100-EMA and headed towards the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA stopped its further upward movement. Trading recommendations The market is bullish now. The price may slightly roll back towards 45.30 dollars per barrel where it may reverse back to a growth. DAX General overview DAX traded higher on Thursday as Retail, Consumer & Cyclical and Technology supported the index. The index gained about 0.86% by the end of the trades. Current situation DAX was in a buy mood and traded higher on Thursday. The price could escalate up to 10740 where it set a new weekly high. The resistance is at 10700, the support stands at 10520. Indicators remained within the positive territory. MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strength. RSI entered the overbought area. The price moved away from the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which extended higher. Trading recommendations The price may pull back from the fresh highs. Sellers can return the price below 10700. If the price fixates over 10700 this could lead to renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 10900. S&P 500 General overview S&P500 grew following the positive U.S labor report and strong corporate earning which gains led the index higher. Besides, energy sector strengthened on the back of oil growth. Current situation Bulls still control the market. The index grew and set a fresh high at the mark 2184.4. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI returned to the overbought area. The S&P500 bounced from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart and moved away from it. The moving averages are trending higher which is a buy signal. Trading recommendations The index shall continue growing on the back of the positive U.S statistics. The 50 and 100 EMAs will act as a support. The instrument will move back and forth between the current resistance 2180 and the 50 and 100 EMAs. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
11/08/2016 Euro General overview The euro strengthened when analysts reassessed the likelihood of the rate hike this year. Current situation The euro erased its losses and rallied higher. Buyers managed to lead the price from the 1.1050 region to the level 1.1200. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI approached the overbought area. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are forming a narrow range in the 4 hours chart. The price is heading from the moving averages in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations If the EUR/USD does make a breakout at that level 1.1200, it is expected to grow to the level 1.1270. Alternatively, the instrument will decrease to 1.1050. Pound General overview Sterling strengthened on the back of the weak dollar. Pound returned some of its losses, nevertheless, the GBP/USD remains under pressure. Current situation The technical picture presents a bearish tone. Pound partly reversed its losses and grew to the mark 1.3100 where it turned down. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is neutral. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs upwards and bounced back from the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The instrument rolled back from the 50-EMA after touching it in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are pointing lower. Trading recommendations The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.2900. After breaking the level the way towards 1.2700 will be opened. Yen General overview The USD/JPY erased all its gains and traded at the session lows. Markets doubt now the likelihood of the Fed rate hike in the current year. The yen grew supported by the stocks weakness and positive Machinery Orders. Current situation The pair faced further downside pressure. Dollar erased all its gains and headed back to local lows. After reaching the support at 101.00 the pair turned up. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. The indicators headed south. MACD moved into the negative area which point to the strength of sellers. RSI dropped to the oversold area. The USD/JPY bounced from the 50-EMA and headed away from it in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA provides a strong resistance in the 102.00 region. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations The pair is under pressure. In the negative scenario, the instrument will fall towards 100.40. In the scenario where buyers take control the USD/JPY grows to 102.50. USD/CAD Current situation The pair has been under intense selling pressure since last week. The instrument is in an upward channel and traders pushed the price to its low limit on Wednesday. The USD/CAD found a strong support at 1.3000 where the pair reversed and partly erased its gains. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.3000. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. RSI approached the oversold area. The price broke the 200-EMA and stopped in its region in the 4 hours chart. The instrument is between the 100 and 200 EMAs which act as a resistance and a support. The 50 and 100 EMAs are turning downwards. The 200-EMA is still trending upwards. Trading recommendations Shall the pair break 1.3000 the downward movement will be continued. Otherwise, we will see a solid growth towards the 1.3100 region where the upper limit of the ascending channel lies. GOLD General overview Gold strengthened on Wednesday on the back of the weak dollar and decreased expectations that the Federal Reserve will have a rate hike in the upcoming months. Current situation The pair had a moderately positive day on Wednesday. Gold sharply rallied and set a new local high at 1356 where the pair turned down and erased some of its gains lately. The resistance is seen at 1350, the support stands at 1330. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the overbought area. The price spiked from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. However, it returned back to the 50-EMA later the day. Now the 50-EMA acts as a support for the XAU/USD. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. Trading recommendations The growing impulse faded and gold softened. If the price remains below 1357 the instrument will continue its downward trajectory. Alternatively, buyers will lead the price to the resistance at 1370. Brent General overview Brent lost about 2% during the trades on Wednesday when the U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose in the latest week. Current situation The market sentiment switched to the negative. Traders pushed the oil futures lower and the instrument erased part of its gains by the end of the trades. The resistance is at 45.30, the support comes in at 44.00 dollars per barrel. The indicators slightly changed from yesterday. Indicators generate a sell signal. The 4 hours chart shows that the price is currently struggling with a bearish 100-EMA. The 100 and 200 EMAs are heading downwards. The 50-EMA is neutral. Trading recommendations Brent is now under the risk of falling under the level of 44.00. After breaking the mentioned level the way towards 42.80 will be opened. Nasdaq General overview U.S stocks traded close to the closing levels. Nasdaq took a pause after setting new all-times highs. Current situation The index retreated from the fresh all-times highs. Traders pushed the price lower. Nasdaq remained in an ascending channel, the price is close to its lower limit. The resistance is at 4800, the support stands at 4700. MACD is still positive. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area and is advancing south. The price is approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the price. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are heading higher. Trading recommendations The price may pull back from the fresh highs. The sellers’ target is the level 4750 where the 50-EAM lies. S&P 500 General overview S&P500 moved away from the record highs as weak oil weighs on the quotes. Current situation The index dropped back below the 2180 mark. The price decreased and is approaching the support at 2165. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD is still positive. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area and is advancing south. The moving averages slightly changed from yesterday. Trading recommendations The price is approaching the support 2165 where the 50 and 100 EMAs lie. This loss of the 2165 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
10.08.2016 Euro General overview The euro traded in a tight range while the dollar was under pressure all over the board. The demand for the euro is limited by the European stocks strengthening. Current situation The tone is still negative in the market. The pair spent the day in a narrow range locked in-between 1.1080 – 1.1100. The instrument tried to regain the 1.1130 level, but failed. The price spiked and returned into the range. The resistance is seen at 1.1130, the support stands at 1.1050. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI stayed close to the oversold area. The moving averages are forming a narrow range in the 4 hours chart. The price tried to break the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs upwards, but failed and returned below the 200-EMA which acts as a resistance. Trading recommendations The EUR/USD is under pressure. The price will meet the further downside pressure after breaking 1.1080 downwards. Pound General overview The pound softened to the fresh monthly lows against the dollar following the gloomy Production data in the country. The weak data renewed concerns over the UK economy strength. Current situation The tone is still negative in the market. The pound continued moving lower yesterday. The session low was marked at 1.2954. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.2900. The indicators slightly changed from Monday. MACD and RSI generate a sell signal. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart which is a sell signal. The price is approaching the 50-EMA which acts as a resistance for the instrument. Trading recommendations The price may pull back from the 1.3000 region where the 50-EMA lies. The level 1.2900 is the next sellers’ target. Yen General overview The dollar remains strong against its rivals on the back of the strong Labor data in the USA. Current situation The USD/JPY closed bearish yesterday. The dollar retreated from the resistance 102.50 which is defended by the sellers. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD indicator is at the centerline. RSI is neutral. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price was struggling with the 50-EMA which limits its growth. An attempt to break the EMA failed and the instrument returned below. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations If the price breaks above 102.50, then this could lead to a renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 103.50. Alternatively, the USD/JPY will decrease to 101.40. AUD/USD General overview National Australia Bank's Business Conditions came in negative. Besides, the market remained under pressure following oil prices decrease. Current situation The pair had a positive day on Tuesday. The instrument grew in an ascending channel close to its upper limit. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7600. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. The price bounced from the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs extended their growth. All EMAs are pointing upwards. Trading recommendations The pair is overbought. We expect a short-term rebound towards 0.7600 (the 50-EMA) where the price may upside and return to the growth. GOLD General overview Gold is under pressure following the expectations for the next U.S. rate hike. Current situation Gold traded in a tight range on Tuesday. The price was sandwiched between 1330 – 1336. The metal partly recovered in the American session. Buyers were able to push the price to 1340. The resistance is seen at 1350, the support stands at 1330. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. The price spiked upwards to the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance for the XAU/USD. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral. Trading recommendations We expect Gold to continue growing with the target at 1350. Brent General overview The Brent got under pressure yesterday due to the returned concerns over the oversupply. Besides, the price retreated when traders began closing their long positions. Current situation Bears seem to have the ball now. The price found a strong resistance at 45.30 which was not able to break. All buyers’ attempts to break the level were rejected and Brent returned below the level by the end of the trading day. The resistance is at 45.30, the support comes in at 44.00 dollars per barrel. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Brent holds above the 100-EMA which acts as a support for the instrument in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs are heading downwards. The 50-EMA is neutral. Trading recommendations If the pressure persists the price will drop to 44.00. Otherwise, Brent will grow towards 46.50 where the 200-EMA lies. DAX General overview DAX strengthened on Tuesday and set a new local high following the U.S stocks. Technology, Insurance and Chemicals sectors shares grew and pulled the index after them. Current situation Technically, the short term picture is bullish. DAX maintained its strong bid tone on Tuesday. The price set a new local high at 10700. The resistance is at 10700, the support stands at 10520. MACD is still positive. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI entered the overbought area. The price is heading north from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 EMAs are trending higher, the 200-EMA is neutral. Trading recommendations The price may pull back from the fresh highs. The sellers’ target is the level 10520. S&P 500 General overview S&P500 traded higher on Tuesday on the back of the Technology stocks growth and when oil price gound status quo. Current situation The quotes returned to all-time highs on Tuesday. The index spent the day below 2180. All buyers’ attempts to regain the level failed. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD is still in the positive area. The histogram points to the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI stayed close to the overbought area. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA upwards which is a buy signal in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the price. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are trending upwards. Trading recommendations If S&P500 manages to break the level 2180 the upward trajectory will be continued towards 2200. The price may retreat from the local highs to the support 2165 where the 50 and 100 EMAs exist. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
09.08.2016 Euro General overview The Euro remained under pressure on Monday. Positive Industrial Production in Germany and Investors Confidence from Sentix were not able to support the single currency. Current situation The EUR/USD traded within Friday's close on Monday. The pair was unable to recover the 1.1100 level. The short term picture is neutral. The resistance is seen at 1.1130, the support stands at 1.1050. The indicators generate a sell signal. MACD is negative. The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained close to the oversold area. In the 4 hours chart, the price broke the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs downwards and remained just below them. The moving averages are turning downwards. Trading recommendations We are bearish on the pair. We expect a break of 1.1050 and a further move towards the recent lows at 1.1000. Pound General overview The pound stayed at the Friday’s close. The Sterling has been under pressure since the BoE cut the rate to cushion the Brexit negative impact. Current situation We preserve a short-term bearish outlook for the pair. The GBP/USD remained close to the fresh lows. The price is locked between levels 1.3000 and 1.3100. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.2900. The indicators slightly changed from Friday. MACD and RSI generate a sell signal. The trading instrument remained below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages remained at the same place. Trading recommendations We expect a short-term growth towards 1.3175 where the 50 and 100 Day EMAs lie. In this potential scenario the GBP/USD shall bounce from the mentioned mark downwards towards 1.2900. Yen General overview Traders continued closing long positions on the back of the renewed interest towards the risky assets. Current situation The instrument is modestly bullish in the short term. The USD/JPY maintained its strong buying tone. The dollar grew in the pair and reached the level 102.50 where it spent the first day of the week. Theresistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is approaching the overbought territory. The instrument broke the 50-EMA and stayed above it in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations If the USD/JPY does make a breakout at that level 102.50 and upward trajectory will be continued towards 103.50. NZD/USD General overview The NZD/USD decreased on the back of the stronger than expected the U.S labor data. The strong labour market makes us believe in the USA economy strength. Current situation The pair recovered and returned some losses it had suffered last week. The price bounced upwards from the current support at 0.7085. The session high was marked at 0.7142. The instrument closed the day bullish. Its tone is still positive. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050. The indicators are in the negative territory. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI approached the oversold area. The price bounced from the 200-EMA on Friday and returned above the 50 and 100 Day EMAs. The 50-EMA acts as a support. The moving averages are neutral. Trading recommendations An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above the resistance level 0.7150. If the price is back below the 0.7085 (the 200-EMA) the price will resume its decrease towards 0.7050. GOLD General overview Gold became cheaper on Monday after the strong U.S Labor market report which increased the possibility of the rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. Current situation Gold futures remained at the weekly low after a sharp decrease last Friday. The price traded in a narrow side channel between the levels 1330 and 1337. The pair remained in the ascending channel, at its low boundary. The resistance is seen at 1350, the support stands at 1330. MACD is in the negative area. The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI bounced from the oversold area. The price remained below the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The instrument is locked between the 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages are turning downwards. Trading recommendations We expect a pullback towards 1342 where the price may turn downwards and continue with a decrease. Brent General overview Brent continued growing when some OPEC members suggested to limit the current oil production. The oversupply still weighs on the price. Current situation The Brent holds a bullish tone. The instrument grew and formed a higher high. The session high was marked at 45.53. The resistance is at 45.30, the support comes in at 44.00 dollars per barrel. The indicators recommend long positions. MACD grew which is a buy signal. RSI stayed close to the oversold area. The instrument broke the bearish 100-EMA and left it behind. The price is heading to the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart now. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing lower. Trading recommendations Brent futures may roll back towards the 44.00 level. The main point of focus today is the release of Crude Oil Stocks change from API. Its results will determine the Brent further direction. Nasdaq General overview Wall Street opened higher at the start of the new week. Stocked renewed all time highs on Friday on the back of the strong NFP report. The quotes moved lower during the day. Current situation The tone is still positive. However, the price bounced from the level 4800. The resistance is at 4800, the support stands at 4700. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area. The price is approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are heading higher. Trading recommendations The price may roll back to 4750 where we expect it to bounce upwards towards 4800. S&P 500 General overview S&P500 retreated from all-times highs following a drop in healthcare. The drop in healthcare lowered a positive impact of higher oil prices and a strong NFP report. Current situationWe are still bullish longer-term. However, the index weakened and moved away from all-time high. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA upwards which is a buy signal in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA extended its growth and is around 2170 now. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are trending upwards. The 50 and 100 EMAs are forming a cross-over in the 4 hours chart and act as a support for the instrument. Trading recommendations The S&P500 may decrease to the level 2165 where the 50 and 100 EMAs lie. The price may bounce back towards 2180. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
08.08.2016 Euro General overview The USA published the NFP report on Friday. The labour market report came in better than forecasted. The euro, pound and yen fell versus the dollar on the back of the strong jobs data. Current situation The pair had a negative day on Friday. Bears gradually gained more overall control. The EUR/USD dropped back below 1.1130 mark on much better than expected U.S Nonfarms Payroll. The euro had a sharp drop and found a strong support at the level of 1.1050. The resistance is seen at 1.1130, the support stands at 1.1050. The indicators generate a sell signal. MACD entered the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI approached the oversold area. In the 4 hours chart, the instrument broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs downwards at first but grew later back. The price closed the day between the 100 and 50 EMAs. The moving averages are turning downwards. Trading recommendations The trend is clearly bearish for now. We expect a decrease towards the strong psychological level 1.1000. Pound General overview The sterling made an attempt to grow as traders believed that the BoE's monetary easing program will support the country economy. However, the better-than-expected U.S jobs data weighed on the pound which sharply fell. Current situation The GBP/USD continued to trade in the negative ground. The pound had a sharp drop below the support level of 1.3100 and formed a lower low there. The lowest trading price was marked at 1.3020. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD still shows a divergence. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI approached the oversold area. The trading instrument remained below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The price dropped away from the moving averages which are trending downwards now. Trading recommendations We are looking for 1.3100 break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.2900. Yen General overview The pair strengthened on much better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls in the USA. Current situation The pair looks bullish, the tone is positive in the market. Traders pushed the dollar higher and closed in the green area. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. The MACD indicator shows a convergence which is a buy signal. MACD is growing. RSI bounced from the oversold area. The instrument broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and stayed above the latest in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations The bullish views are getting more popular now. We support the growth scenario, the next stop for the USD/JPY could well be around 102.50. USD/CAD General overview Unemployment Rate in Canada came in worse than expected. Change in Employment showed -31.2K. At the same time the U.S. dollar strengthened which supported the pair. Current situation The USD/CAD closed bullish on Friday. The pair could escalate up to 1.3200. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100. The indicators generate a buy signal. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. The price is hovering above the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving upwards. Trading recommendations The pair may bounce back from the resistance 1.3200 towards the 1.3100 mark. It is a good opportunity to buy the pair when it became cheaper. The buyers’ targets are the levels 1.3200 and 1.3300. GOLD General overview Gold strengthened on Thursday to 4-week high when the BoE cut the rate. However, the yellow metal weakened the next day following the U.S labour market report. Current situation The positive trend switched to the negative one. The gold futures decreased and are decisively trading below the 1350 mark now. The resistance is seen at 1350, the support stands at 1330. MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area. The gold futures broke the 50-EMA and touched the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The price is currently struggling with a bullish 100 EMA. The moving averages direction is upwards. Trading recommendations The instrument is approaching the support 1330 which limits its decrease. The pair will resume its downtrend as soon, as the price drops below the current support level. Brent General overview The Brent feels confident following the USA positive inventories report. Current situation The tone is positive in the market. The price left the downward channel and is heading upwards. The buyers led the price from 43.46 to 44.46. The resistance is at 45.30, the support comes in at 44.00 dollars per barrel. The indicators slightly changed from Friday, they still generate a buy signal. The instrument broke the bearish 50-EMA and is heading to the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs keep heading lower. Trading recommendations The instrument has been strengthening for several days. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 45.30. If Brent futures fixate over it the prices may resume its growth. Dax General overview European stocks closed higher. The BoE quantities easing program together with the U.S labor data supported financial stocks on Friday. Current situation The trend is clearly bearish for now. DAX returned into the upwards channel. The index jumped to a fresh weekly high of 10370 after the NFP report. The resistance is at 10520, the support stands at 10350. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are heading higher, the 200-EMA is neutral. Trading recommendations The pair holds a bullish tone. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 10520. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street traded higher on Friday on the back of the better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. Current situation The instrument had a positive day on Friday. The index sharply rallied and set a fresh all-time high at 2176. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA upwards which is a buy signal. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are trending upwards. Trading recommendations We believe in a growth. We expect SP500 to break 2180 and to consolidate over it. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 05.08.2016 Euro General overview The euro has been decreasing the second day in a line. The single currency weakened amid the growing dollar. The Eurozone Economic Bulletin did not present any interesting information. The investors’ attention now turns to the US nonfarm payrolls report which will be released later today. Current situation The dollar traded mixed on Thursday, generally higher against the euro. The pair remained in a negative ground. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD shows a divergence which is a sell signal. RSI left the overvalued area and is heading downwards. In the 4 hours chart, the instrument bounced from the 50-EMA which crosses the 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages are neutral. Trading recommendations If the price makes another attempt and this time breaks below the 1.1130 support area then we could see a decrease towards 1.1050 and 1.1000. Pound General overview The sterling showed a sharp drop for the first time after the Brexit referendum following the BoE’s decision to cut the basis rate by 0.25% and to launch the bond buying program. Current situation The pound had a negative day on Thursday. The GBP/USD had a sharp drop to the support 1.3100 area where the downward impulse faded. The Sterling lost about 1.60% during the course of the day. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100. MACD shows a divergence which points to the trend change. RSI approached the oversold territory. The instrument bounced from the 200-EMA and fell in the 4 hours chart. The pair broke the 100 and 50 Day EMAs on its way. Now the price is below the moving averages which act as a resistance. Trading recommendations We are looking for the 1.3100 support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.2900. Yen General overview The yen grew following the Kikuo Iwata comments (a Bank of Japan deputy governor). According to Mr. Kikuo Iwata the regulator does not have any preset agenda for its current policy. Current situation The pair USD/JPY remained neutral, staying below 101.40 region. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. The MACD indicator shows a convergence which is a buy signal. RSI stayed close to the oversold area. The instrument broke the 50-EMA before retreating it in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations The pair is neutral, awaiting for the NFP in the US. In the scenario where buyers return to the market the USD/JPY grows towards 102.50. Otherwise, the instrument will decrease to 100.40. AUD/USD General overview The Aussie grew on the back of the negative Retail Sales in the country. The index came in worse-than-expected which did not stop the Australian dollar from resuming its growth. Current situation The pair held a bullish tone yesterday. The AUD/USD was climbing the whole day and reached the 0.7630 mark, the highest level since July 15th. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7600. The indicators generate a buy signal. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. The price is hovering above the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages are moving upwards. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 0.7700. After breaking 0.7700 the buyers may go to 0.7800. GOLD General overview Gold grew and gained back its early losses following the Bank of England decision to cut the rate. Current situation The pair had a positive day on Thursday. Traders pushed the gold higher to the mark 1364 where the price had found a strong resistance. The resistance is seen at 1370, the support stands at 1350. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. The 1 hour chart shows that the price broke the 50 and the 100 EMAs before returning above them. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are trending upwards in the mentioned time frame. Trading recommendations The main point of focus today is Non Farm Payrolls in the USA. In the scenario when the Fed releases the positive unemployment report the gold futures will decrease towards 1350. Alternatively, the yellow metal will grow above 1370. Brent General overview The Brent is under pressure. We believe the current oversupply and the world economy slow down will weigh on the oil price. Current situation The Brent closed bullish yesterday. Bulls seem to take control over the market. The buyers managed to lead the price from the support 42.80 to the 44.00 region where the pair found a strong resistance. We consider the current growth corrective. The resistance is at 45.30, the support comes in at 44.00 dollars per barrel. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. The instrument broke the bearish 50, 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100-EMA is neutral, the 200-EMA is still heading lower in the same chart. The price broke the 50-EMA and hovered above in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages keep heading lower. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 45.30. We do not exclude a decrease towards 42.80. Nasdaq General overview American stocks showed little change on the back of the Bank of England decision to cut the rate. Current situation The index enjoyed a mixed session through trade on Thursday. The trading instrument remains in the upward channel. The index closed the day bullish. The resistance is at 4765, the support stands at 4700. MACD is in the positive area. The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is close to the overbought area. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages are pointing higher which is a buy signal. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 4800. We do not exclude the falls to 4650. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street showed low volatile trades, remaining in a flat on Thursday. The traders are cautious ahead of the NFP. Current situation The index held near the unchanged mark on Thursday. The price spent the day close to the opening mark. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD is in the negative area close to its centerline. Oscillator RSI is neutral. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards which is a sell signal. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 2150. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 2140. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 04.08.2016 Euro General overview The dollar grew against a basket of its major peers on Wednesday. The US currency remained close to the 5-week lows as the markets are uncertain whether the Fed will hike the rate or not this year. Current situation The pair had a negative day on Wednesday. The EUR/USD traded in the upward channel, and approached its lower limit. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator shows a divergence which is a sell signal. RSI left the overvalued area and is heading downwards. In the 4 hours chart, the instrument is moving towards the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA and the 200-EMA. The moving averages generate a buy signal. Trading recommendations We expect the EUR/USD will resume its decrease and will reach the level 1.1130. Pound General overview The pound weakened following the Services PMI which met the traders’ expectations. Current situation The instrument remained close to the local highs. The price traded above the level 1.3300.The current resistance is seen at 1.3500, the support exists at 1.3300. MACD is in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold territory. The price traded below the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA acts as a resistance. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral. Trading recommendations The pair looks bearish and may return below 1.3300. In this scenario, sellers will push the pair down to 1.3100. Yen General overview The yen weakened following the BoJ’s minutes publication. The regulator plans to assess the impact of the negative rates on the economy. Current situation Traders pushed the dollar higher in the USD/JPY pair. The USD/JPY is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 101.40. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. The indicators MACD and RSI still generate sell signals. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The indicator shows a convergence. RSI left the oversold area. The instrument snapped the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are moving downwards. Trading recommendations We expect the 101.40 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.50. NZD/USD General overview In economic news, Labour cost index added 1.6% vs. expectations of 1.8% in New Zealand. Current situation The kiwi faced a downside pressure and closed bearish yesterday. The lowest trading price was marked at 0.7140. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7150. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ strength weakening. RSI is in the neutral territory. The oscillator is decreasing. There is a cross-over on the Moving Averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs direction is upwards. Trading recommendations We believe the market would switch the tone to bearish. The pair may partly reverse its yesterday's losses, but it will resume its downward trajectory afterwards. The level 0.7050 is the sellers’ target. GOLD General overview The gold remained positive amid decline in expectations that the Fed will hike the rate in near-term. Current situation The pair remained neutral during the day and fell in the North American session. The session low was marked at 1353.52. The resistance is seen at 1370, the support stands at 1350. Indicators generated a weak buy signal. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ strength weakening. Indicator RSI left the overbought area and is moving downwards. The moving averages slightly changed from Tuesday. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the current support level 1358. If this support will break, the price may fall towards 1350. Brent General overview The Brent reversed some of its early losses awaiting the Crude Oil Stocks change release. The Crude Oil Stocks change grew which is a negative factor for the Brent futures. Current situation The trend is bearish for now. The trading instrument recovered and closed the day bullish. The resistance is at 44.00, the support comes in at 42.80 dollars per barrel. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold area and is heading towards the overbought area. The price broke the 50-EMA and 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. All moving averages keep heading lower. Trading recommendations The upward movement potential targets are 44.00 and 45.30. If the price falls it will get to 41.40. DAX General overview The European stocks traded lower on the back of the HSBC, SocGen и Credit Agricole shares growth. Current situation The tone is still positive in the market. The index had a positive day on Wednesday. DAX30 was able to reverse some of its previous losses. The index is trying to regain the 10175 mark. The resistance is at 10175, the support stands at 10000. MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. RSI rebounded from the overbought area. The price broke 50-EMA, but was unable to leave it and stayed in its region. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance for the price now. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are moving upwards, the 200-EMA is neutral. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the level of 10175, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 10000 and 9760. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street traded with slight gains as energy and financial sectors compensated healthcare and consumer goods decrease. Current situation The index showed a positive dynamics. Traders tried to push the index higher. However, the buyers ran out of steam and the upward move faded in the North American session. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. The indicators generate a sell signal. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which indicates sellers’ growing strength. Oscillator RSI is close to the oversold territory. The moving averages slightly changed from yesterday. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 2160. We do not exclude the falls to 2140. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman