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"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 10.10.2016 Euro General overview The euro remained under pressure against the US dollar despite the weak Nonfarm Payrolls report. Current situation The market was neutral in the European session on Friday as investors waited for the NFP report. The euro broke the 1.1150 level and tested 1.1100 (two-month low) where it seems to have found a descent support. After testing the level 1.1150 the price rebounded and headed towards 1.1250. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning lower in the 4 hours chart. The price broke the moving averages upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The EUR/USD is still under pressure and remains vulnerable to further downslide in the near-term. A close below 1.1100 will extend losses towards 1.1070. We will place buy orders if we see a daily closing above 1.1200. Meanwhile, any move above 1.1100 we consider corrective. Pound General overview The pound weakened against the dollar after François Hollande’s comments who said if the UK wants hard Brexit they will get it. Current situation The pound collapsed and sharply fell during the Asian session on Friday. The sterling crashed below 1.2600 and extended its losses towards 1.1900 at night. The GBP/USD lost about 6% overnight. After a sharp fall the price returned to the 1.2400 region where it remained during the day. The moving averages kept heading lower, following the price downwards. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support lies at 1.2400. MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold area which confirms the current downward movement. Trading recommendations The pair is oversold. We expect sideways trades and a recovery towards 1.2600. Yen General overview The yen strengthened amid risk aversion following the collapse of the pound. The weak NFP report weighed on the dollar and supported the yen. Current situation After refreshing the weekly high the pair was in a neutral phase during the day. The dollar almost reached the September high at 104.30, the price stopped a few pips below it. The USD/JPY pair traded within 50-pips range consolidation ahead of the U.S Non Farm Payrolls report. The dollar weakened after the report, the USD/JPY retreated from the recent highs and moved lower. The price broke the level 103.50 and moved towards 102.50. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs slowed down their growth. The moving averages are turning downwards. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations The current recovery is a profit taking from bulls after one week growth. Should the price consolidate below 103.50 the pair may decline to 102.50. AUD/USD General overview Weak U.S. labor market data helped the AUD/USD pair to extend its recovery from two-week lows. Current situation Technically, the price maintained its bearish tone. The AUD/USD is in a short-term descending channel. After a 4-day decrease the price seems to have found a strong support around 0.7550 where it formed a consolidation range – 0.7550 and 0.7590. The Aussie tried to break above the moving averages, however, the 200-EMA stopped its growth. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support stands at 0.7540. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the oversold area. Trading recommendations A break above 0.7600 will extend recovery towards 0.7650. The nearest sellers' target remains the support level 0.7540. XAUUSD General overview Despite the weak US Non-farm Payrolls gold prices remained under pressure as the probability of a Fed rate-hike at the December meeting remains high. Current situation The XAU/USD pair traded in a consolidation range during the Asian and European sessions on Friday. Sellers consolidated their gains after one week decrease. The price found a support at 1250 and traded above the level during the day. Gold managed to reverse some of its losses and recovered to 1265 after the US NFP report. The price tried to regain the level but failed and faced another wave of the selling pressure. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD remained in the negative area. RSI indicator stayed near the oversold levels, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral for now. The price will remain in a range in the lack of new drivers. Buyers may reverse some of their losses if they push the price higher to 1270. Brent General overview Oil prices remained within green territory amid strong US inventories reports and hopes of an output deal. Current situation The price remained in an upward channel, close to its upper limit. Brent retreated from the recent highs and erased some of its losses on Friday. The price moved below 52.50 and headed towards the nearest support at 51.50. Brent futures hover over the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The moving averages keep moving higher. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Trading recommendations Oil prices remained bullish. To keep growing the price needs to break above 52.50. A break below 50.50 would signal correction as daily studies are overbought. DAX General overview European stock traded lower on Friday due to Retail, Media and Transportation & Logistics shares weakness in Germany. Current situation DAX gapped downwards on Friday and continued moving lower during the day. The price was struggling with the level 10500 the whole day and finely broke it at close of trade. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 200 EMAs are moving higher. The 100-EMA is pointing south, crossing the 50-EMA downwards. The resistance is seen at 10500, the support is at 10400. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations If the downward pressure persists the price will decline below 10500. Sellers will lead the index towards 10400. If the level 10500 holds DAX could escalate to 10600. S&P500 General overview Wall Street traded lower on Friday following a lightly weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The latest labour data can put the Fed rate hike on hold. Current situation The index remained in sideways with a tendency to grow during the European session on Friday. However, after a disappointing U.S. labour data the index sharply fell below 2150 and tested the level 2140. S&P500 broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are heading lower in the same timeframe. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI moved to the negative territory. Trading recommendations A move below 2140 will strengthen sellers who will try to lead the price towards 2130. If the level 2140 holds the index can bounce upwards towards 2165. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 07.10.2016 Euro General overview The euro decreased despite strong Factory Orders in Germany. Erkki Liikanen's comments weighed on the single European currency. According to Liikanen low interest rates and aggressive bond buying are necessary to support the Eurozone’s economy. Current situation The market was quite this Thursday. The euro kept on declining after a sharp growth at the start of the week. The price traded lower 1.1200 towards 1.1150 during the European session. The EUR/USD pair broke the moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150. MACD is in the negative area. RSI is approaching the negative territory. Trading recommendations The pair will remain under pressure until it gets new upbeat drivers. Investors’ attention now turns to the US nonfarm payrolls report. The price may dip further on the back of the stronger NFP report. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards to the levels 1.1150 and 1.1100. On the other hand, the currency pair may grow back above 1.1200. Pound General overview The pound refreshed 3-decade lows. The UK currency remains vulnerable amid Brexit-related concerns. Current situation The pair is now grossly oversold in the short term. The pound traded onto the latest lows on Thursday. The price remained in a tight range between 1.2700 - 1.2800 during the European trades. The sterling moved lower ahead of the US opening. The GBP/USD moved lower under the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading south. The current resistance is seen at 1.2700, the support lies at 1.2600. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations The pound is expected to remain vulnerable due to ongoing Brexit. The GBP/USD pair is likely to decline further. The next sellers' target is the level 1.2600. After breaking the level sellers will push the price to 1.2500. Yen General overview The USD/JPY strengthened as growing expectations for a U.S. rate hike in 2016 continued to support the US dollar. Current situation The USD/JPY pair maintained its strong bid tone. The price remained in a short-term upward channel. The pair reached a key technical level – 103.50 in early Europe. After a brief consolidation the price extended its gains and moved towards 104.30. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which is a buy signal. All moving averages moved upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area. Trading recommendations The USD/JPY remains bullish with a target 104.30. The price needs to move below 102.50 to switch the tone to bearish. USD/CAD General overview The USD/CAD extended its gains on Thursday on the back of a stronger dollar. Current situation The price recovered after Wednesday’s brief decrease yesterday. Buyers pushed the price from the current low at 1.3160 towards the immediate resistance where the buying interest faded for a while. Bulls returned to the market at the beginning of the New York session and the USD/CAD continued to struggle with the level 1.3200. The USD/CAD pair remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support stands at 1.3100. The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations To trigger additional upward momentum the price needs to break above 1.3200. Once we break above the level, we think that the 1.3280 mark will be next. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices continued to lose value on Thursday as increasing expectations of a Fed’s rate hike in December, 2016 keep fuelling the demand for the dollar. Current situation Gold extended its weakness on Thursday. The yellow metal has been falling the eighth session in a row and has refreshed 4-month lows. After a short consolidation during the Asian hours the price faced a downside pressure and extended its weakness towards 1260 dollar per ounce. After breaking the support 1260 the XAU/USD trended lower towards 1250. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline. All moving averages kept heading south. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the strength of sellers. RSI remained within the negative territory. Trading recommendations Gold futures are most likely to continue to move lower. The next sellers’ targets are the supports: 1250 and 1240. Brent General overview Oil prices got additional support following Algeria's Energy Minister statements that OPEC could cut production more if needed. Current situation The bullish trend remained intact on Thursday. Brent futures accelerated their gains and moved higher to the level 51.50. Oil prices left the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs behind in the 4 hours chart. After breaking the 100 and 200 EMAs the 50-EMA accelerated its growth, the 100 and 200 EMA moderately kept growing. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within the overbought area. Trading recommendations Brent prices will strengthen further towards 53.50 if the upward momentum persists. DAX General overview European stocks were neutral ahead of the U.S. unemployment release on Friday. Current situation Market’s positive mood persisted on Thursday. However, the neutral phase that started this week is still intact. DAX traded sideways, the index got under selling pressure on any up-move towards 10600. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is moderately bullish, the 50-EMA accelerated its growth, the line is about to cross the 100-EMA which is heading lower. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the positive territory. Trading recommendations An uptrend will start as soon, as the DAX index rises above the resistance level 10600. If the price moves below 10500 we will neutralize our medium term positive outlook. Sellers may push the price towards 10400. NASDAG General overview Wall Street opened lower on Thursday following the European stocks decline. The upcoming labour market report (the Non-Farm payroll release) weighs on the U.S. equities as well. Current situation The index remained in the upwards channel. NASDAQ gave up its latest gains and faced a downside pressure yesterday. Sellers were able to move the price lower from the mark 4880 below the level 4865. The downward momentum faded during NY trading session. The price found a solid support at the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are pointing higher. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 4835. MACD decreased which confirms the current strength of sellers. RSI moved towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations A clear break below the 4865 support will indicate that the upward movement from 4888 is over. The following downward movement could bring prices back to the 4740 area. On the upside, as long as the level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 06.10.2016 Euro General overview The euro strengthened and approached Tuesday’s high on Wednesday. There were no many macroeconomic releases in the EU. Investors’ attention now turns to the possible ECB's quantitative easing plans tapering. Current situation In the medium term, the outlook is neutral. The EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.1150 level. The rally stopped at 1.1230, the price was in a consolidative range above 1.1200 during the European hours. The ongoing recovery could also be attributed to some profit taking from sellers after a sharp decrease on Monday. The pair moved down ahead of the US opening. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral ahead of Non-Farm report. Technically the downtrend remained intact. As the most probable scenario, we expect a slow decrease below 1.1200. Pound General overview The pound remained under pressure as the ongoing concerns of 'hard Brexit' kept weighing on market sentiment. Current situation The GBP/USD fell to its lowest level in more than 30 years and keeps falling now. The downtrend stalled at 1.2700 on Wednesday. The market was inactive after nearly five-day decrease. Sellers consolidated its gains and held the price at the current lows. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.2800, the support lies at 1.2700. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD may recover to reverse some of its losses. The pound could grow to 1.2840. Our near-term outlook is bearish. We expect the price to decline further. Yen General overview The dollar remained close to 2-month high due to hawkish Fed officials’ comments. Current situation Technically, the main trend is up. The USD/JPY closed bullish on Tuesday and extended its strength on Wednesday. The dollar continued moving higher and refreshed the current high at 103.20. In the 4 hours chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are following the price upwards. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA upwards and is approaching the 200-EMA in the same chart. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations We feel comfortable taking a short-term long position. Bulls will definitely try to test the 103.50 resistance. The pair is overbought and we do not exclude its correction below 102.50. NZD/USD General overview Weak dairy auction products together with risk-aversion on the back of the bonds yields growth weighed on the kiwi. Current situation The bearish trend remained intact on Wednesday. The price kept battling with the 0.7165 mark to decline further. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0.7120. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. The loss of the 0.7200 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. Sellers will try to lead the price to 0.7120. Alternatively, the NZD/USD pair may try to regain the level 0.7200. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 0.7230 is possible. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices bounced from the 3-month low on expectations over the Fed's next monetary policy action in December. Current situation Gold prices remained in the red territory on Wednesday. Sellers consolidated their gains after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The yellow metal spent the day around 1270 dollar per ounce. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs turned down in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1280, the support comes in at 1270 dollar per ounce. MACD is negative. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations The level 1270 limited the further decline of the metal. A cut through here will aim at the 1260 level. If the current support rejects the price the XAU/USD will grow towards 1290 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices grew following the API report which showed that the US crude inventories dropped by 7.6 million barrels last week. Current situation Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. Oil prices kept growing after a brief consolidative phase during the Asian hours. Brent was able to break 51.50 ahead of the US opening. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth. The 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations Oil prices paused awaiting for EIA data ahead of NY trading session. A growth in inventories will weigh on Brent prices. On the other hand, its decrease will push the price higher. DAX General overview European stocked opened neutral due to concerns over the ECB’ annotative program tapering. Current situation DAX traded sideways on Wednesday. The index traded within a tight range between 10600 and 10520. The DAX index got under selling pressure on any up-move towards 10700. The price spent the day around the 200-EMA which acts as a support for the index. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 200-EMA is pointing higher, the 100-EMA direction is downwards, the 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is consolidating within the overbought area. Trading recommendations The index is trying to break above 10600 upwards. A clear strength above this mark will pave way for continuation of the index’s upward trajectory towards 10700. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened higher on Wednesday on the back of the energy sector strengthening due to the oil prices growth. Current situation The index reversed some of its Tuesday’s losses when rebounded from the level 2140. The price grew to the nearest resistance where the upward momentum faded. The overall picture remained bearish. The price grew to the 100-EMA which stopped its further growth. The 50 and 100 EMAs act provide a strong resistance for the S&P500. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral area. The oscillator is slowly decreasing. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a decline towards 2140. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
Dear forum users! We would like to draw your attention that the registration for the "Money never sleeps" contest held by FortFS and the prize fund of 25 000 USD continues. The contest's terms and conditions can be found here "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 05.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar strengthened across the board amid renewed speculation that the Fed may raise rates this year. Current situation The single European currency failed to regain the resistance 1.1250 and had a sharp drop below the mentioned level on Tuesday. The price fell towards 1.1150 where sellers ran out of steam, the EUR/USD pair slowed down its decline and rolled back to the 1.1170 region. The euro broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are fallowing the price downwards. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold area. Trading recommendations The price will struggle with the 1.1150 level to go further. Once we break below the current support, we think that the 1.11 level will be next. Any rebound above the level 1.1150 we consider corrective. Pound General overview The pound hit 31-year low against the dollar despite positive U.K. Construction PMI on hard Brexit fears. Current situation The GBP/USD maintained its negative tone in the market. The pound dipped lower and refreshed three-decade lows. The sterling broke the support level 1.2800 and declined further, approaching the next level – 1.2700. In the 4 hours chart, the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2800, the support exists at 1.2700. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations Bears have the ball now. We are looking for the current support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.2600. The price may correct towards the 1.2850 region. After rolling back sellers may try again to break the immediate barrier. Yen General overview The yen fell amid risk-appetite growth. Moreover, investors doubt that the BoJ will reach the targeted 2% inflation in the nearest term. Current situation The neutral tone switched to the bullish one. The pair continued to advance north and was able to test the level 102.50 at the start of NY session. The USD/JPY advanced north away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are following the price and are turning upwards. The resistance can be found at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations A consolidation above 102.50 will indicate a start of a bullish phase. We expect further moving upwards as long as the support 101.40 remains intact. AUD/USD General overview The Aussie softened when the RBA the left the rate unchanged on Tuesday. Current situation The AUD/USD retreated from the 3-day highs on Tuesday. The overall outlook remains bullish and the current pullback is seen as consolidation. The price is approaching the level 0.7650. The moving averages kept heading higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support stands at 0.7650. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within the overbought area. Trading recommendations A bullish continuation through 0.7700 should lead to a continued slide, with 0.7750 as the first probable target. A close below 0.7650 could extend the current weakening towards 0.7630. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices decreased on Tuesday as optimistic U.S. data kept weighing on the metal. Current situation Gold switched the neutral tone to the bearish one. The XAU/USD extended its weakness on Tuesday. After consolidation during the Asian session the price sharply fell below 1310 dollar per ounce and advanced towards 1280. The pair broke the 1300 and 1290 levels on its way downwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1300, the support comes in at 1290 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations A strong breakdown and close below 1290 dollar per ounce could send prices lower towards 1280. However, the instrument is oversold and we do not exclude a roll back towards 1305. Brent General overview Brent eased on the news that Iran reached the pre-sanction oil production. Next in focus would be API report in the late North American session on Tuesday. Current situation Oil prices traded close to the monthly highs on Tuesday. Brent remained in an ascending channel. Oil futures grew and refreshed weekly high at 51.25 during the course of the day. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth and crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI approached the overvalued territory. Trading recommendations If buyers fail to hold over 50.50 oil prices will decline to 49.50. A break above 51.50 would open the way to 52.50. DAX General overview European stocks opened higher on Tuesday. DAX grew as Deutsche Bank shares continued their recovery after receiving support from its major clients and some rivals. Current situation The DAX index continued with its recovery on Tuesday. The price moved from the level 10520 towards the nearest resistance at 10700. DAX broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards and headed away from them. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The overall picture is bullish now. We assume the price will keep growing towards 10700. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened the day positively on the back of the technology sector growth. Investors still evaluate the possibilities of an eventual Fed rate-hike in the coming months. Current situation The index traded in an upward channel. The price moved upwards from its lower boundary. NASDAQ could escalate to 4888 and broke above previous day’s top. The price moved away from the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 4900, the support is at 4865. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The NASDAQ index traded in the green on Tuesday. If the upward pressure persists the index might extend its growth towards 4900. Should the index get below 4865 and the price could ease to 4835. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 04.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar strengthened amid renewed optimism regarding Deutsсhe Bank. Current situation Technically, the price maintained its bearish tone. The euro was low volatile during the European hours on Monday. The EUR/USD remained below 1.1250 and kept its range-trade intact during the course of trade. The price decreased in the NY session. The price hovered above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages provide a strong support for the main currency pair. The resistance comes in at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD is in the positive area. RSI remained within the neutral territory on Monday. Trading recommendations The level 1.1200 remains the key support area to watch for. A clear break below will open the way towards 1.1150. Pound General overview The pound decreased on Monday despite the positive Manufacturing PMI. The report did not convince investors in a growing strength of the UK economy after the Brexit. Theresa May (Britain's Prime Minister) set the final date for the Brexit which weighed on the pound as well. Current situation The GBP/USD gapped downwards in the Asian session on Monday. The price continued moving south during the European trade. The pair broke 1.2900 and began consolidating its gains. The 4 hours chart shows that the price is below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages keep heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2900, the support exists at 1.2800. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI approached the oversold area. Trading recommendations The loss of the 1.2900 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. The next sellers' target is the level 1.2800. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.2700 is possible. Yen General overview The yen was neutral on Monday despite the strong Tankan release. Markets ignored the report, awaiting for the U.S. Manufacturing PMI later this day. Current situation The USD/JPY pair remained neutral on Monday. The dollar looked firm against the yen. The price traded in a narrow range between 101.10 – 101.60 during the European trade hours. The pair started a consolidation phase after a strong rebound from the 3-month support line – 100.06. The USD/JPY was sandwiched between the 100 and 200 EMAs which provide an immediate support and resistance. The moving averages are slowing down in the 4 hours chart. The resistance can be found at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming days. USD/CAD General overview The upbeat sentiment around oil prices supported the commodity currencies, including loonie . Current situation Bears tried to return control over the market. The pair was neutral during the Asian hours and got under selling pressure in the European session. Sellers were able to break the 1.3100 level, but failed to stay there. The price bounced from the 1.3070 mark. The price bounced upwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair broke the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support stands at 1.3100. MACD remained at the same levels which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The USD/CAD still looks bullish. The price is expected to grow further towards 1.3200 soon. Should the pair consolidate below 1.3040 and sellers will push the price towards 1.2900. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices remained intact on Monday even though the fears regarding a Deutsche Bank collapse eased. Current situation Gold was steady on Monday after last Friday’s sharp decrease. The pair traded around the recent lows close to the 1310 level. Gold prices are below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are all pointing lower. The resistance is at 1320, the support comes in at 1310 dollar per ounce. MACD remained negative. RSI is in the overvalued territory. Trading recommendations The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1310. A close below the level will trigger losses to the 1305 mark. A break above 1320 could cheer up buyers and would open the way to the 1327-1330 region. Brent General overview Oil grew on Monday amid risk appetite growth. OPEC’s plans to cut production support on both sides of the Atlantic. Current situation Oil prices remained under buying pressure on Monday. Despite the gap downwards at the open of the Asian session, the price turned around and extended last week growth. Brent approached the August high that was posted on the 19th August. The price remained well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth and crossed the 100-EMA upwards. All moving averages are trending higher. The resistance is at 50.50, the support comes in at 49.50 dollars per barrel. MACD is positive. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations We expect a correction which may last a few days to ease the current overbought scenario. Oil may return below 49.50 to the 48.50 region. DAX General overview European stocks were neutral on Monday as a threat of a Deutsche Bank collapse decreased. Germany stocks were closed due to "Day of German Unity" celebration. Current situation The index remained at last week highs due to the day off. The 200-EMA stopped the DAX further growth. The 100 and 200 EMAs provide a strong resistance for the price. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are pointing lower, while the 200-EMA kept heading north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. The MACD and RSI indicators did not change since Friday. Trading recommendations After last week sharp spike the price is expected to roll back. We expect a correction towards 10350. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened in the red territory on Monday when healthcare and consumer sectors led the shares down. Current situation The index decisively traded below the 2165 mark on Monday. The price retreated from last week high and partly erased latest gains during European trade. S&P500 continued moving lower at the beginning of the New York session. The price bounced from the 200-EMA and rolled back towards the 100-EMA. In the 4 hours chart the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD decreased which points the buyers’ weakness. RSI remained neutral. Trading recommendations Bears seem to have returned in the game. The upward movement is out of steam, sellers shall lead the price towards 2140 through 2150. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 03.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar fell from a weekly high despite the positive U.S economic releases. The euro weakened amid European bank problems. Particularly, investors concerned about the health of Deutsche Bank. Current situation The pair jumped from 1-week low and returned back above the 1.1200 level. The level 1.1250 stopped the rally, the price rolled back and closed the day a few pips below the level. The moving averages maintained neutral tone. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The market switched the tone to bullish. A break above 1.1250 might force the pair to resume its upward trajectory. After breaking the level the EUR/USD pair may trend towards 1.1280. Pound General overview The pound strengthened against the dollar on the back of strong UK economic reports. Current situation The sterling remained under pressure on Friday. An attempt to grow was stopped above 1.3000. Buyers were not able to hold above the level and had to return below it. The price failed to break the 50-EMA and after a short period returned below it. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is consolidating within the oversold area. Trading recommendations The level 1.2950 limits further decline of the pair. A close below the level will trigger losses towards 1.2900. After breaking the level the price will advance to 1.2800. Yen General overview The yen weakened after the OPEC decision to reduce oil output. Moreover, the China manufacturing PMI, which came in as expected, weighed on the safe-haven yen. Current situation The bearish trend remained intact. The yen erased its latest gains on Friday, but closed the day in the green. A bullish spike faded around 101.70 and the price had to return below 101.40. The USD/JPY broke the 100-EMA and tested the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. However, buyers failed to hold above the 200-EMA and the price rolled back. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is within the overbought territory. Trading recommendations The bearish trend remained intact. All buyers attempt to raise the price were unsuccessful. The price will remain in a range between 101.40 and 100.40 waiting for new drivers. NZD/USD Concerns over Deutsche Bank make investors stay away from safe-heaven assets. Instead they preferred higher-yielding currencies – like Kiwi. Current situation The NZD/USD pair had a positive day on Friday. The price recovered from the weekly low at 0.7230 and headed above 0.7250 where it closed the day. The pair broke upwards the neutral moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations Despite a recovery on Friday the overall tone is negative. The price remained in a descending channel which risks a further decline towards 0.7250 and 0.7220. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices fell on Friday despite the growth of demand for safe-assets due to the banking problems in Europe. Current situation Gold was recovering during the European hours, but sharply fell at the beginning of the New York session. The price fell from the daily high at 1327 towards 1310 through 1320. The XAU/USD pair closed the day bearish. In the 4 hours chart gold quotes broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages are turning lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 1320, the support comes in at 1310 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations If the price maintains its bearish tone a break below 1310 should lead to a continued slide, with 1305 as the first probable target. Brent General overview Brent fell due to profit taking amid concerns that the OPEC’s agreement will not weaken a global supply glut. The US rigs number increased which also pressured oil quotes on both sides of the Atlantic. Current situation Brent stalled two-day rally and fell back into negative territory. The price made an attempt to extend its recovery in the European session on Friday. However, it turned around and reversed its latest gains in the North American session. Crude oil prices remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading higher, the bearish 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel. The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The tone is still positive in the market. However, Brent is overbought and could conduct a rebound towards 48.50. DAX General overview DAX strengthened fallowing the news about possible agreement between Deutsche Bank and the U.S. Department of Justice. Current situation DAX gapped lower at the start of Friday. However, the price turned around and jumped to weekly highs later the day. The index climbed back into the 10520 region. The prices broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs on its way upwards. In the 4 hours chart the moving averages showed mixed directions. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are pointing lower, the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from negative territory. Trading recommendations Despite the rally on Friday DAX remained in a descending channel. The price closed the week at its higher limit. The index may conduct a technical rebound towards 10350. If the growing pressure persists the quotes will extend its recovery. Alternatively, the DAX index will continue its downward momentum. NASDAQ General overview The Oil & Gas and Consumer Services sectors positive data supported the U.S. stocks on Friday. Current situation Bulls fought back control and returned prices to the local high. NASDAQ rallied and closed the day in the green figures above 4865. The index bounced from the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs present a moderately bullish slope. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 2150. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI approached the overbought area. Trading recommendations The bullish tone prevails in the market. The price may dip to 4800 to bounce back upwards. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 30.09.2016 Euro General overview The latest U.S. statistics revived hopes for a rate hike by the Fed till the end of the year. The euro weakened on the back of the weak Unemployment Change report in Germany. Current situation The EUR/USD pair found a support around 1.1200 and traded modestly flat on Thursday. The price remained inactive between 1.1200 and 1.1230 during the European trade. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are still neutral. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 1.1200 the price will move towards 1.1150. However, we consider that scenario as an alternative. We expect a further growth towards 1.1250. Pound General overview The pound weakened on Thursday despite the positive UK data. The latest Yellen’s comments supported the dollar. Current situation The pound was able to extend its recovery at the start of the day and set a daily high at 1.3050. However, the pair was not able to hold its gains and decreased back to the 1.3000 region. The sterling is struggling with the 50-EMA to grow further. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD pair may recover further. The first buyers’ target is the mark 1.3060, the second 1.3100. A close below 1.3000 will trigger losses to the 1.2900 level. Yen General overview The yen weakened following the OPEC agreement to limit oil output to 32,5-33,0 million bdp. Current situation The dollar rallied during the course of trades on Thursday. The price was able to break the level 101.40, but it failed to extend its growth and retreated to the broken level. The USD/JPY is trying to consolidate its gains now. The price broke the 50 and 100-EMAs and touched the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are moving lower. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought territory. Trading recommendations A clear strength above the immediate resistance will pave the way for a continuation of the pair's upward trajectory. The price may grow towards 102.00. AUD/USD The U.S. dollar strengthened due to the latest Yellen’s comments and the OPEC agreement to cut oil output. Current situation The pair remained bullish on Thursday. The buyers were able to push the price towards 0.7700 and even pierced the level. However, they were not able to hold their gains and the price rolled back towards 0.7650. The AUD/USD pair is hovering above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations If the AUD/USD breaks 0.7650 the price will decrease to 0.7600. Otherwise, the pair will return to 0.7700. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices got under pressure on Thursday ahead of the Fed officials’ comments. The positive GDP and labour data weighed on the metal as well. Current situation The yellow metal continued to trade in the negative ground. The price retreated from the recent high and headed towards 1310. The XAU/USD broke the level 1320 on its way downwards. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning downwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1320 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold area. Trading recommendations This loss of the 1320 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. Sellers will lead the price to 1310. Brent General overview Brent rose in the European session after a surprised OPEC decision to cut oil output. Moreover, a draw in U.S. crude stocks gave an additional support for oil prices. Current situation Brent futures consolidated their gains after a sharp rally the day before. The price traded around 48.50 dollars per barrel moving back and forth around the level. Oil prices broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is neutral, while the 50 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards. The 200-EMA acts as a support for the price. The resistance is at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel. MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is consolidating within the overbought area. Trading recommendations Brent may extend its growth towards 49.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks, including DAX, rallied after the OPEC decision to freeze oil output. However, negative employment data in Germany weighed on the DAX index. Current situation DAX gapped higher in the Asian session on Thursday. The price extended its gains during the European hours. The index was able to set a weekly high at 10574. After setting a new high the price partly retreated below the 10520 level. A break above the 100 and 200 EMAs failed, the price returned below them. DAX is in-between the 50 and 200 EMAs. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral, the 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The level 10520 stopped the upward momentum. A cut through here will aim markets at 10574. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened lower on Thursday amid oil prices decrease. Besides, investors were cautious ahead of Janet Yellen's speech. Current situation The index almost recovered after losses it had suffered last week. The price rallied to the level 2165 during the Asian session. After breaking the level S&P500 gave up its latest gains and retreated to the 2157 region. The 200-EMA stopped the growth of the index. The price bounced off the line and returned to the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower. The 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is within the positive territory. Trading recommendations The S&P500 index found a support around 2156. If this mark holds the price will continue growing. Our first target is the level 2165, further out the mark 2170. A move below the mark will target sellers to 2150. After breaking the level the price may decrease to 2145. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 29.09.2016 Euro General overview The euro reversed some of its losses due to concerns over the Eurozone economy state. Current situation The EUR/USD enjoyed a mixed session through trade on Wednesday. The price went back and forth around 1.1200. The euro was under pressure the first part of the day, but was able to recover at the start of the North American session. The price made an attempt to break the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The break was short-lived and the price returned above them. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The short-term picture is quite mixed. The further downward movement is limited by the support 1.1200. If the EUR/USD pair makes another attempt and this time breaks below the level the price may fall towards 1.1150. The nearest bulls' target is the immediate resistance at 1.1250. Pound General overview Shafik’s dovish comments (the BOE deputy) weighed on the pound. According to the deputy more stimulus may be required in the nearest time. Besides, the regulator is ready to expand its asset purchase program if needed. Current situation The trend is objectively bearish. Sellers have the ball and do not want to give up their positions. The pair showed low volatile trades on Wednesday. The price stayed around 1.3000 waiting for new drivers. An attempt to grow was stopped by the bearish 50-EMA. The price is struggling with the 50-EMA to grow further. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is heading towards the overbought area. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a decline towards 1.2950 support zone. A recovery towards 1.3100 is also possible. Yen General overview The dollar rose on Wednesday due to profit fixation and was supported by the positive sentiment after the election debates. Current situation The pair had a neutral day on Wednesday. The dollar made an attempt to recover which was stopped at 100.80. The price spent the day a few pips above the current support – 100.40. The 50-EMA stopped the correctional growth. The price touched the line and slightly rolled back. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs present a strong bearish slope. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We are looking for the 100.40 support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 100.00. USD/CAD Current situation The pair remains in the upward channel, close to its lower limit. However, the upward momentum seems to have run out of steam. An attempt to extend an upward trajectory appeared short-lived. The price stopped a few pips above 1.3200. The USD/CAD remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages accelerated their growth. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.3200. MACD remained in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The USD/CAD pair is overbought. We expect a short-term downward correction. The price may decrease towards 1.3140 where the 50-EMA resides. Conversely, the pair will extend its upward trajectory towards 1.3280 - 1.3300. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures got under pressure after the first U.S. presidential debates as demand for the safe-assets diminished. Current situation The XAU/USD pair had a negative day on Wednesday. The price remained under pressure and extended its decline. Sellers were able to push the price lower from 1326 to 1322. The downward momentum stalled above the support 1320. In the 4 hours chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1320 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI approached the oversold area Trading recommendations If the level 1320 holds gold prices may develop an upward correction. In this potential scenario we will see the price move towards 1330-1335. If this support will break, the quotes may fall that should send this market looking for the 1310 level. Brent General overview Brent prices strengthened on Wednesday on stockpile data. Investors waited for the OPEC meeting outcome. Current situation After a short consolidation during the Asian hours Brent returned to a growth. After breaking the level 46.50 the price rallied towards 47.50 dollars per barrel. However, the bullish spike appeared a short-lived and the quotes returned below 46.50. The overall picture is bearish. Brent tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, the 200-EMA is pointing higher. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations If the price consolidates above 46.50 the price may extend its recovery. The level 47.50 is the first target. A clear break above the level will open the way towards 48.50. To trigger a downward movement the quotes need to return below 46.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks were broadly higher on Wednesday on the back of mining and energy-related stocks strengthening. Moreover, investors waited for major oil producers’ meeting outcome. Current situation DAX was stronger on Wednesday and traded near the local high. The price extended its recovery and reached the 10520 resistance region. After reaching the level DAX slightly rolled back and erased some of its latest gains. The instrument broke the 50-EMA and tested the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are heading lower, the 200-EMA is moving north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The price is struggling with the resistance 10520 to go further. Besides, the 200-EMA stands on its way upward. The DAX index needs to break this barrier to strengthen further. Otherwise, the index will return to a decline. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street traded flat at the open of the North American session. Investors waited for Yellen’s speech and the OPEC producers’ meeting outcome. Current situation The index started its Wednesday’s trade in a flat. The price consolidated its gains after the rally the day before. NASDAQ spent the day near 4865, the quotes were moving back and forth around the level. The price is hovering above the 50-EMA. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving higher. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 4835. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The price may slightly pull back to 4835. If the upward pressure continues the index will grow further. The mark 4890 is the next buyers’ target. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 28.09.2016 Euro General overview The EUR/USD traded neutral on Monday as the market sentiment improved after the Presidential debates in the USA. The dollar is still recovering after the Fed decision to leave the rate unchanged. Current situation The price broke the resistance 1.1250 and headed north in the European session on Tuesday. However, the upward momentum shortly faded and the quotes returned into the familiar range below 1.1250. Sellers pushed the price lower towards 1.1200 at the start of the North American session. The pair is approaching the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs present a moderately bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD decreased. RSI is drifting away from the overbought area. Trading recommendations A break above the immediate resistance will trigger the next leg of an upward move for the pair. The main buyers' goals are the marks at 1.1280 and 1.1300. We cannot rule out the chance that the EUR/USD pair will fall to 1.1200. Should the EUR/USD overcome the level and sellers will lead the price to 1.1150. Pound General overview The pound is under pressure due to oil prices decrease. Current situation The buying interest was short-lived and faded a few pips above 1.3200. The price sharply fell from the session high, returned below the level and remained flat between 1.3200 and 1.2940 during the day. The GBP/USD pair is well below the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. The oscillator is heading south. Trading recommendations If the GBP/USD pair remains within the negative territory sellers will make another attempt to break below 1.2900. Meanwhile, we prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming hours. Yen General overview The yen strengthened after Haruhiko Kuroda’s words. According to Kurodа the regulator was ready to use every available tool to achieve its 2% inflation. The Central Bank is also ready to implement additional stimulus measures if needed. Current situation After testing 100.00 support zone the price bounced off and slightly recovered. The upward momentum faded at 101.00 where the price turned around. The USD/JPY sharply fell and erased all its previous gains. The pair seems to be making another attempt to break the level 100.40. The 4 hours chart shows that the price met a selling pressure around the 50-EMA. All moving averages keep heading lower in the in the same chart. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is consolidating within the negative territory. Trading recommendations Our near term scenario is a consolidation above the 100.00 support zone. We expect other attempts to break the 100.00 mark. NZD/USD Current situation Last week recovery was stopped at 0.7320. The upward momentum faded and the price retreated from the session high. Now the NZD/USD seems to be heading towards the immediate support at 0.7250. The 50 and 100 EMAs provide a strong support for the pair. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral territory. The oscillator is heading south. Trading recommendations The pair is under pressure and we preserve our bearish outlook. The price has difficulties to go higher 0.7320. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the mark at 0.7220. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices traded lower on Tuesday as markets decided that Hillary Clinton won the first U.S. presidential debate on Monday. Current situation The early XAU/USD recovery stalled and the quotes got under selling pressure on Tuesday. Gold prices dropped to the level 1330 where the downward movement slowed down. The pair remained under pressure at the start of the North American session. The metal seems to be struggling with the 50-EMA to go further. The 50, 100 and 200 are moderately bullish in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1340, the support comes in at 1330 dollar per ounce. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We believe the pressure will persist. A break below 1330 would open the way to 1320. Brent General overview Oil prices decreased on Tuesday as hopes of an agreement among the OPEC members faded. Current situation Oil prices remained under pressure on Tuesday. A recovery attempt failed, sellers are back in town. The price dropped from the weekly high at 47.50 to 46.50 dollars per barrel. After breaking the level 46.50 Brent extended its losses towards 45.95. Crude oil prices were not able to break the 200-EMA upwards. The price turned around and fell through the 50 and 100-EMAs. The 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing lower. The 200 EMA maintained a bullish slope. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations Brent is expected to extend its decline towards 45.30. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 44.30 could be observed further. DAX General overview European stocks traded lower on Tuesday following the news of Hillary Clinton's victory over Donald Trump in the presidential debate. Current situation DAX maintained its bearish tone on Tuesday. The price was declining the whole day and found a support around 10250 in the North American session. After touching the mark the quotes rolled back towards the nearest resistance at 10350. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading lower in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA direction is upwards. The resistance is seen at 10350, the support is at 10175. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold area Trading recommendations The price may recover to the 10450 region where the 50-EMA exists. After reaching the region the index may turn around. Conversely, DAX may make another attempt and this time break below 10250. S&P500 General overview Wall Street traded higher on Tuesday when a growth in technology sector reduced losses in energy stocks. Current situation S&P500 remained under pressure on Tuesday. The index shortly decreased and refreshed the weekly low at 2132. The price turned around after that and moved towards 2150. The quotes bounced from the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline. All moving averages are heading lower. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming days. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 27.09.2016 Euro General overview The euro strengthened on the back of the strong Germany statistics. The euro/dollar stayed in a narrow range amid a risk aversion on Monday. Current situation The euro preserved its positive near-term tone on Monday. The pair kept recovering after bouncing from the level 1.1200. The price approached the 1.1250 level in the middle of the European trades and broke it at the start of the North American session. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are still neutral. All lines act as a support for the quotes. The resistance is seen at 1.1300, the support stands at 1.1250. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. Trading recommendations A clear break above the level 1.1250 will indicate growing buyers’ strength. Buyers will lead the price towards the closest resistance at 1.1300. Pound General overview The dollar remained under pressure against its major rivals as stocks kept digesting the latest Fed’s decision. Moreover, traders were cautious ahead of U.S. Presidential Debates. Current situation The downward pressure persisted on Monday. The GBP/USD pair erased all its Friday’s gains and sharply fell from the local high towards the next support at 1.2900. The price stuck in post-Brexit short-term consolidation. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained its bearish slope and extended their declines in the 4 hours chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI consolidated within the negative territory. Trading recommendations If the pressure persists the GBP/USD may extend its downward trajectory. The nearest target remains the support level 1.2900, the second target is at 1.2800. Yen General overview The yen strengthened as a safe asset amid a risk aversion. The BoJ chief Kuroda's words that the regulator was ready to implement additional measures to boost inflation failed to limit the growth of the yen. Current situation The risk-off sentiment supported the demand for the yen. The price slid downwards from the Asian high at 101.00 towards the immediate support at 100.40 where the downward pressure faded. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their declines. All moving averages keep heading lower in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. The indicators continued heading south within negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained above the oversold area. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remained bearish. A close below 100.40 will trigger losses to the 100.00 level. If the support holds the USD/JPY may bounce towards 101.40. AUD/USD General Overview The Aussie was neutral against the U.S. dollar on Monday despite the recent pressure after oil prices decrease. Current situation AUD/USD tested the support of the price channel in the 4-hours chart during the Asian trades on Monday. After testing the channel lower boundary the price bounced upwards and headed towards 0.7650. The 4 hours chart shows that the 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA in the same chart. All moving averages headed north. The resistance is at 0.7650, the support comes in at 0.7600. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI remained neutral. Trading recommendations As long as the level 0.7600 holds the price is expected to trend upwards. The level 0.7650 is the first buyers’ target. A strong breakdown and close below 0.7600 could send prices lower towards 0.7540. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices showed mixed trades on Monday. Traders took wait-and-see mode before Presidential debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Current situation Gold prices traded mixed on Monday. The quotes stayed in a tight range between 1332 and 1340 dollar per ounce. After rolling back the price again tried to overcome 1340. However, the pair got under selling pressure on any up-move towards the mark. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance is at 1340, the support comes in at 1330 dollar per ounce. MACD is in the positive area. RSI consolidated close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations If the price overcomes 1340 dollar per ounce we will neutralize our medium term negative outlook. Once we break above the 1340 level, we think that the 1350 level will be next. Brent General overview Oil prices recovered on Monday after last week decrease. Investors are weighing up the possibility of a potential coordinated output freeze agreement among the OPEC members. Current situation Oil prices remained within a descending channel. A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. Brent spent the Asian session in a tight range between 45.80 and 46.50. The price got under buying pressure in European trade on Monday. However, the bullish spike faded at the mark 47.00. The quotes are in-between the bearish 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is moving higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory. Trading recommendations Brent might extend its recovery towards 47.50. A break above 47.50 would open the way to 48.00. In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 46.50 the quotes will dip towards 45.30. DAX General overview European stocks opened lower on Monday as financial and energy-related stocks weighed on the shares. Current situation The index gapped downwards from 10587 to 10576 in the Asian session on Monday. The price maintained its bearish tone during the European hours. DAX moved towards the immediate support at 10350 at the open of the North American session. The price broke through the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart and advanced from them. The 50-EMA direction is downwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are heading north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. MACD decreased which indicates the strength of sellers. RSI moved towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations The 10350 level remains the key support area to watch for. A clear break below the level will trigger the next leg of move for the index. The level 10250 is the next sellers' target. We do not exclude a correction towards 10450. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened lower on Monday on the back of the first debate between U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Current situation The index got under selling pressure from the very beginning of the day. Sellers pushed the price towards the 4800 region through 4835. The 50-EMA stopped the downward movement. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained its moderate bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 4835, the support is at 4800. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI reached the oversold area. Trading recommendations We expect a short-term correction and a continuation of the downward momentum. The level 4800 is the next sellers’ target. In case of a recovery the price will grow towards 4850. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 26.09.2016 Euro General overview Germany published positive Manufacturing PMI from Markit on Friday. Despite the positive data the figures did not impact the pair. Current situation The near-term outlook is mixed for the pair. The EUR/USD consolidated its gains at 1.1200 during the European session on Friday. The euro rebounded from the level 1.1200 at the start of the American session. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are still neutral. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1100. MACD remains within the positive territory. RSI is consolidating near the overbought area. Trading recommendations A bullish continuation through 1.1250 should lead to a continued growth, with 1.3000 as the first probable target. A move below 1.1200 should send the price towards 1.1150. Pound General overview The dollar strengthened against the pound on Friday. However, its growth is limited as the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged keeps weighing on the dollar. Current situation Cable remained under pressure on Friday. Its attempt to recover met a bearish resistance at 1.3100 where the price reversed and moved south. The price broke the level 1.3000 on its way downwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their declines. All moving averages kept heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD is in the negative territory. RSI approached the oversold area. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the mark 1.2950. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1.2900 level. On the other side, buyers will try to break the mark 1.3050. If they succeed the price will trend towards 1.3100. Yen General overview The USD/JPY recovered on the news that the BoJ could interfere. Bedsides, the yen was in demand as stocks were cautious after the recent Fed and BoJ’s statements and preferred safe-assets. Current situation The price traded close to the level 101.40 on Friday. The USD/JPY slightly retreated from the recent high and moved down. The price touched the 50-EMA and bounced from it in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is close to the oversold area. Trading recommendations A strong breakdown and close below 100.40 could send prices lower towards 99.50. However, the instrument is oversold and we do not exclude a correction towards 101.40. USD/CAD General Overview Commodity currencies are under pressure due to oil prices decrease and dollar strengthening. Current situation The pair continued with a recovery on Friday. The price bounced from the weekly low at 1.3000 and moved north towards 1.3200. However, the growing momentum faded around 1.3150. The price stopped growing and began consolidating its gains. The USD/CAD pair broke the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs on its way upwards. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the price now. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. Trading recommendations Despite the recent growth the pair is under pressure. If buyers have strength they will lead the price towards 1.3200. In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 1.3100 the price will trend towards 1.3000. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices retreated from the recent high after a sharp rally the day before. The expected Fed’s decision to put rates on hold supported the metal. Current situation The price spent the day in a consolidation close to the recent high at 1340. Traders closed their long positions after a rally. The XAU/USD is still in green figures. The metal remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards. The resistance is at 1340, the support comes in at 1330 dollar per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is within the overbought area. Trading recommendations If the price makes another attempt and this time breaks above the 1340 resistance area then we could see its further growth towards 1350. If traders keep cutting long positions the price may roll back towards 1330. Brent General overview Brent fell at close of Friday trade. Oil prices weakened when it became known that Saudi Arabia did not expect the world leading crude exporters to reach an agreement at the meeting in Algeria. Current situation Oil prices enjoyed a mixed session of Friday. The price fell in the Asian session, and then turned around in the European one. Brent almost reached the level 48.50 when it again reversed and sharply fell through 47.50 and 46.50. Prices stopped close to the support 45.30. Crude oil bounced from the 200-EMA and fell below the 50 and 100 EMAs which headed south. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is approaching overbought area. Trading recommendations The next target for Brent might be the support level of 45.30. The second target lies at 44.30. DAX General overview European stocks decreased despite the positive statistics in Germany and France. Current situation DAX retreated from the level 10700 on Friday. This was a technical rebound as traders were cutting their long positions to fixate their gains. The price approached the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200-EMAs downwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards, the 50-EMA is still heading south. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought territory. Trading recommendations DAX my extend its correction and approach the level 10520. If the level holds the index will bounce upwards towards 10700. Should the price break the level 10520 downwards and sellers will push it towards the 10400 – 10350 region. S&P500 General overview The Oil & Gas and Industrials sectors losses weighed on the American stocks on Friday. Current situation The index erased its previous gains and retreated from the weekly high at 2172. The price broke the level 2165 on its way down and headed towards 2150. S&P500 bounced from the 200-EMA and moved downwards. The price broke the 100-EMA and is approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing lower. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought territory. Trading recommendations We are looking for the 2150 support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 2140. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
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"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 23.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar weakened on the back of the Fed decision to maintain its rate unchanged. Current situation Despite the recent growth our outlook is still bearish. The price remained in the descending channel. The pair broke the 1.1200 level overnight and trended towards 1.1250 in the European session on Thursday. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) narrowed and are neutral now. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1100. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations The price may roll back towards 1.1200 where it may turn around and presume its growth. Alternatively, if sellers are back in the game the EUR/USD pair will decrease towards 1.1150. Pound General overview The pound is in demand due to the risk appetite growth and amid the dollar weakness across the board. Current situation The GBP/USD pair continued with the recovery on Thursday. The price had been growing the second session in a row. Buyers were able to lead the price upwards through 1.3000. The rally faded near the level 1.3100 where the pound had found a solid resistance. The sterling touched the bearish 50-EMA and bounced back. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD grew which confirms the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above the resistance level 1.3100. A move below the 1.3000 support would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend. Yen General overview The dollar softened against the yen when the American regulator made a decision to leave the rate unchanged . Current situation The price sharply fell on Wednesday and remained under pressure on Thursday. The pair found a support at 100.40 where the downward pressure eased and the dollar was able to recover. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations If the price breaks the 100.40 level the next target for this pair will be the support level 99.50. We do not exclude a short-term correction towards 101.40. NZD/USD General Overview The New Zealand dollar strengthened on the back of the RBNZ decision to keep the rate on hold. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the door open for November rate cut. Current situation The pair maintained its bullish trend. The price grew in the Asian session, the pair set a new weekly high at 0.7370. The NZD/USD decreased during the European hours on Thursday. The price traded above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are pointing higher. The 50 and 100 EMAs provide a strong support for the price. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD is in the positive area. MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching overbought area. Trading recommendations The price may continue its uptrend. The level 0.7400 is the first buyers’ target. A decline below 0.7320 could indicate a start of a reversal in the uptrend. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices strengthened amid a weak dollar. The dollar softened when the Fed held off on raising interest rates. Current situation Metal had a positive day and closed the day in green figures. Buyers broke the resistance 1330 dollar per ounce overnight. The growth slowed down and the price traded above 1330 on Thursday. The instrument headed away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1340, the support comes in at 1330 dollar per ounce. MACD is positive. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching overbought area Trading recommendations The XAU/USD pair might extend its growth towards 1340. In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 1330 the metal may decrease towards 1320 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview The draw in the U.S. crude supplies supported Brent futures which have been growing for the third week in a row. Current situation Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. The price extended its growth above the level 46.50 on Thursday. Brent is currently struggling with 47.50 to grow further. The instrument touched the 200-EMA and left below the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 200-EMA is pointing higher, the 100 and 50 EMAs are heading lower. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel. MACD entered the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching overbought area. Trading recommendations As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving upwards towards the level at 47.50 dollars per barrel. A short-term roll back towards 46.50 is also possible. DAX General overview European stocks extended their growth on Thursday after the Fed’s expected decision to put the rates on hold. Current situation DAX looks very bullish now. The price continued to advance north during the course of trades on Thursday. The index is approaching the resistance level 10700. The DAX index headed away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are heading lower, the 200-EMA kept advancing north. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520. MACD entered the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish. A break above 10700 would open the way to 10900. DAX may slightly roll back in the Asian session to presume its growth on Friday. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened higher after the Federal Reserve decision not to cut the rates in September. Current situation Bulls seem to have returned in the game. The index has been climbing upwards the second day in a roll. The price broke the level 4865 and slowed down. The 50-EMA is turning upwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral. The resistance is seen at 4900, the support is at 4865. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area Trading recommendations Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. A clear strength above the 4865 will pave way for a continuation of the NASDAQ upward trajectory towards 4900. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 22.09.2016 Euro General overview The BoJ decision to leave the rate unchanged did not impact the pair. The EUR/USD was unmoved during the European trade on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed meeting results. Current situation The euro got under selling pressure during the Asian session on Wednesday. The lowest trading price was marked at 1.1120 (the lowest mark since August 21st). The price turned around and recovered back to the opening level – 1.1150 in the middle of the night session. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards and is crossing the 200-EMA now. All moving averages are heading south which confirms the sellers’ strength. The resistance is seen at 1.1150, the support stands at 1.1100. MACD remained in the negative territory. RSI consolidated within the oversold area. Trading recommendations The pair will mostly depend on the US data on Wednesday. If the Fed changes the rates the price may decline further down towards 1.1100 and 1.1050. If the US Central Bank maintains its rates unchanged the euro may strengthen towards 1.1200 and 1.1250. Pound General overview The pound weakened against the dollar despite the positive UK statistics on Wednesday. Traders waited for the Fed decision regarding the rates later the day. Current situation The pair seems to continue with the recovery in the European session on Wednesday. The price bounced off the boarder of the oversold zone. The sterling was able to erase some loses turning higher. The GBP/USD traded near 1.3000 in the middle of the European trade on Wednesday. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs maintained their bearish slope. All moving averages keep heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2870. MACD is negative which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations On the whole, the GBP/USD pair threatens further downside pressure. The pound may weaken on the back of the Fed decision regarding the rates. In this potential scenario, the price will fall towards 1.2870. Conversely, the quotes will continue with the recovery towards 1.3100. Yen General overview The dollar strengthened despite the BoJ decision to keep the rates unchanged. Current situation The USD/JPY traded mixed on Wednesday. The price fell below 101.15 and then sharply rallied in the Asian session. The pair jumped towards the level 102.50 where it suffered a short lived downward movement. The price is struggling with the 101.40 level now. The USD/JPY remained below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages show a moderately bearish slope. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD is negative which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations If the USD/JPY breaks the support 100.40 that should send this market looking for the 100.00 level. Otherwise, the price will grow towards 102.50 and 103.00. AUD/USD General Overview The AUD/USD grew on the back of the oil prices growth. Current situation The pair had a positive day on Wednesday. After a brief consolidation the pair resumed its near-term bullish movement. The price has been growing for the third consecutive session. The AUD/USD stopped a few pips below 0.7600 in the European session. The instrument broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. Now these moving averages act as a support for the aussie. The 200 and 100 EMAs are neutral, the 50-EMA is pointing higher. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7540. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area. Trading recommendations A move above 0.7600 will trigger additional upward momentum. We believe that the price could escalate up to 0.7650. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures grew to the one-week high when the BoJ announced new monetary policy measures. Current situation The XAU/USD retreated from the weekly low in the Asian session. The price rallied and was able to break the level 1320 dollar per ounce. The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance at 1330. The yellow metal broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1320 dollar per ounce. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is approaching the overbought territory. Trading recommendations If the price overcomes 1330 we will neutralize our medium term negative outlook. Buyers may push the price towards the mark 1335. Alternatively, the XAU/USD falls below 1320 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview Brent prices grew following a draw in U.S. crude inventories. Besides, the oil service worker strike in Norway threatens the oil output which supports the current oil prices rally. Current situation Oil prices gapped higher at the start of Wednesday. The price immediately jumped from 46.25 to 46.45 dollars per barrel. The crude oil remained close to the level 46.50 during the European trade on Wednesday. The price touched the bearish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is heading lower, the 200-EMA is moving upwards. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD remained within negative territory which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area Trading recommendations The Brent will mostly depend on the Crude Oil Stocks change report on Wednesday. A further draw in the inventories shall support the prices. Brent may continue its upward trajectory towards 47.50. On the other hand, a growth of inventories may weigh on the price which will fall below 46.50 dollars per barrel towards 45.30. DAX General overview European stocks opened higher after the BoJ announcement its new monetary policy measures. Current situation The price gapped higher in the Asian session on Wednesday. The index jumped from 10400 to 10430. Buyers were able to extend a recovery towards 10520 where the upward momentum faded and the price rolled back. DAX shortly broke the 200-EMA upwards and immediately returned below the line. The 50-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving downwards, the 200-EMA is advancing north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Trading recommendations To trigger additional upwards momentum towards 10700 the price needs to break the level 10520. We cannot rule out the chance that DAX would return to 10350. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. Current situation The index opened higher on Wednesday. The price traded with slight gains. S&P500 was able to escalate up to the level 2150 during the European trades. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations To move higher the price needs to break the immediate resistance at 2150. Once we break above 2150, we think that the 2160 level will be next. A move below 2140 might force the index to resume its downward trajectory towards 2135. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 21.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar weakened on Tuesday. Traders were cautious ahead of BoJ and Fed meetings. Current situation The pair tried to regain the level 1.1200, but failed. The euro bullish spike faded and the pair dropped below the level 1.1200. The 4 hours chart shows that the price briefly broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs and immediately rolled back. The EUR/USD was below the 200-EMA at the start of the North American session. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the negative territory. Trading recommendations The EUR/USD pair is neutral now. We recommend staying out of the market before the Fed meeting. The dollar may strengthen towards 1.1050 on the back of the Fed decision to raise the rates. Alternatively, the price will jump towards 1.1300. Pound General overview The pound decreased and faced a new selling pressure. Buyers failed to hold above 1.3000 on the back of the weak dollar. There was not much to watch on the UK calendar on Tuesday. Current situation After a brief consolidation in the Asian session the price gave up its recent gains. The sterling was not able to sustain its growth and sharply fell below the psychological level 1.3000 during the European hours. Now the price is heading lower towards the next support at 1.2870. The price remained below the main moving averages which are all pointing lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2870. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations The pair remains in red figures. The GBP/USD now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.2870. Yen General overview The yen preserved a neutral tone ahead of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan Current situation The price was able to recover and reversed some of its losses but remained in bearish territory. The USD/JPY was in the consolidation range between 102.00 and 101.40 on Tuesday. The quotes went back and forth within the range during the day. The instrument was struggling with the 50 and 100 EMAs which act as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD entered the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We preserve a short-term neutral outlook for the pair ahead of the BoJ and Fed meetings. If the price fixates below the support 101.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 101.00 and 100.40. Should the pair recover ground and advance beyond the 102.50 level, the rally can extend in the short term up to 103.50. USD/CAD General Overview The Canadian dollar got under pressure following oil prices decrease, when Venezuela stated the necessity to bring oil production down. Current situation The pair was positive and traded near the 6-week highs on Tuesday. After a short consolidation during the Asian hours buyers pushed the price higher. The moving averages extended their growth. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs keep heading higher. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching overbought area Trading recommendations The pair is overbought and we do not exclude a downward correction right now. The price may decline towards the 1.3100 region where the 50-EMA stands. In the scenario, where buyers keep control over the market the USD/CAD will trend higher towards 1.3300. XAUUSD General overview Gold was neutral on Tuesday as traders prepared for the U.S. and BoJ central banks meetings. Current situation Gold prices enjoyed a mixed session through trade on Tuesday. The price recovered during the Asian session and turned around in the European one. The pair came across a selling pressure near the resistance 1320, turned around and headed towards 1310. The XAU/USD bounced from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is at 1320, the support comes in at 1310 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. The oscillator is heading south. Trading recommendations If the Fed raises the rate as the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1300. If the U.S. regulator keeps the rate unchanged the price will grow through 1320 towards 1330. Brent General overview Venezuela statements about the necessity to cut the oil production by 10% weighed on the oil prices. Besides, oil futures decreased amid risk aversion in the market. Current situation After a brief pause during the Asian hours the crude oil prices faced a new downward pressure in the European session. Sellers were able to drive Brent futures lower. The instrument tested the level 45.30 but failed to go further. The lowest selling price was marked at 45.05. The 50 and 100 EMAs extended their declines and crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 200-EMA is moving upwards. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD remained within negative territory which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area Trading recommendations We would be selling Brent only if the price drops below 45.30. Otherwise, the instrument may strengthen towards 46.50 - 47.00. DAX General overview The DAX index traded higher on Tuesday. The growth of chemistry-related shares supported the European stocks. Current situation The price jumped in the Asian session on Tuesday. The DAX index traded near previous week high. The index seems to have found a decent resistance near the 10470 region. The 200-EMA limits its further growth. The instrument stopped a few pips below the line. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards and is about to cross the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral territory. The oscillator advanced north. Trading recommendations A move above 10470 will lead the price to 10520. A break above this level risks a further growth towards 10600. Alternatively, if we see a close below 10350 we will sell. Sellers’ targets are the marks 10250 and 10175. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened higher on Tuesday. However, investors are cautious ahead of the Fed meeting that will conclude on Wednesday. Current situation The index remained neutral and traded mixed on Tuesday. The price grew in the Asian and the European sessions and turned around in the North American one. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs extended their declines. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations To trigger additional downward momentum towards 2130 the price needs to break the level 2140. We also cannot rule out the chance that the index would try to get to the level at 2150. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 20.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar weakened and erased some of its gains which were recorded on Friday due to the positive U.S. statistics which revived hopes of a Fed rate-hike in September. Current situation The technical picture presents a slightly bearish tone. The main currency pair found a descent support around 1.1130. The price comes across a selling pressure on any up-move towards 1.1200. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing lower, the 200-EMA is neutral. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD is negative. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations We believe the EUR/USD will remain neutral in the short term. The price will be confined to the tight range between 1.1130 and 1.1180. Pound General overview The pound partly recovered amid a weak dollar. The risk appetite grew on the back of strong oil. Current situation The pound remains in red figures. The current recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from sellers following last week sharp decrease. The GBP/USD slightly grew above 1.3000 in the Asian session and erased some of its gains during the European hours. The session high was marked at 1.3075. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards. The moving averages are trending lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remains oversold. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD is trading around 1.3000. A break below will allow a test of the mark 1.2960. We do not exclude a larger recovery towards 1.3100. Yen General overview The dollar weakened against the yen ahead of the Fed and BoE’s meetings this Wednesday. Current situation The neutral phase that started last week is still intact. The price traded within a broad range between 101.40 and 102.50. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD entered the negative area. MACD slightly decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral for now. We believe the price will continue sideways trades ahead of the Fed meeting this Wednesday. NZD/USD General Overview The NZD/USD pair strengthened due to the oil prices growth. Current situation The overall picture is neutral. The dollar weakness helped the pair to recover all of its losses. The price approached the resistance at 0.7320. The kiwi bounced from the 200-EMA and grew through the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is heading towards the overbought territory. Trading recommendations We remain bullish in the short term. If the price breaks the level 0.7320 the kiwi will continue its upward trajectory towards 0.7350. If the level 0.7320 holds the NZD/USD pair will bounce back towards 0.7250. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices recovered on Monday after a two-week decrease ahead if the Fed and BoJ’s meetings. Current situation Gold prices tried to regain the level 1316, but failed. The price bounced from the level and traded a few pips below it. The moving averages extended their decline. The resistance is at 1316, the support comes in at 1300 dollar per ounce. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The level 1316 and the 50-EMA limit gold further growth. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above this region. The 1325 level is the next buyers' target. If the pressure persists the XAU/USD will decline towards 1300. Brent General overview Brent reversed its losses after last week sharp decrease, as investors are waiting for an informal major producers’ meeting later this month in Algeria. Current situation Buyers made an attempt to regain 46.50, but failed. The price snapped the level and retreated from the daily high. The price faced a downward pressure at the start of the North American session. The 50-EMA is pointing lower, the bearish 100-EMA is crossing the bullish 200-EMA downwards. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is approaching oversold area Trading recommendations A move below the support 45.30 would suggest a resumption of the downtrend. In this potential scenario, sellers will move the price towards 44.30. To trigger an additional upwards movement the price needs to break above 46.50. DAX General overview European stocks traded higher at the start of the new week. The stocks partly recovered due to the financial and energy shares growth. Current situation The overall picture remains bearish. The price remained in the short-term downward channel. DAX gapped higher on Monday. The price was confined to the tight range between 10330 and 10370. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 200-EMA headed north, the 50 and 100 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is seen at 10350, the support lies at 10175. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the level 10350. A move above the level will strengthen buyers which will push the price towards 10450 and further towards 10520. A break below this mark risks a decline back towards 10250. Nasdaq General overview Wall Street opened higher on Monday. Oil prices growth supported the North American stocks which will be keeping a close eye on the Fed meeting this Wednesday. Current situation The index was positive on Monday. The price was able to continue its growth, buyers pushed the price from 4800 to 4835. Nasdaq is above the moving averages which are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 4835, the support is at 4800. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI bounced from the overbought area Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 4865 resistance area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 19.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar grew on the back of a better-than-expected U.S. consumer price index. Current situation The main currency pair left the flat after a strong consumer price index report. The euro got under intense selling pressure at the start of the North American session. Sellers pushed the price lower below 1.1200. The instrument headed towards the next support at 1.1130. The pair broke the moving averages down in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning downwards. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD is within the negative territory now The RSI oscillator is heading south. Trading recommendations Should the pair consolidate below 1.1200 the EUR/USD will continue its downward movement. The level 1.1130 is the next sellers’ target. Pound General overview The pound remained under pressure as the BoE left the door open for another rate cut to boost the economy if necessary. Current situation The GBP/USD remained in red figures on Friday. Bears maintained control over the market. The price gave up its recent gains, broke the level 1.3200, 1.3100 and touched 1.3000 at close of trade. The GBP/USD is under the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is heading lower, the 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI reached the oversold area. Trading recommendations If the pair manages to make a breakout of the support 1.3000 the price will continue its downward trajectory. We do not exclude a correction towards 1.3100 – 1.3150 after a rapid decrease. Yen General overview The dollar softened against the yen due to uncertain U.S. statistics which makes us doubt of a Fed rate-hike in September. Current situation The USD/JPY traded around the monthly pivot point on Friday. The tone is still negative in the market. Sellers were able to push the price lower on Friday. The session low was marked at 101.68. The price broke the 100 and 200 EMAs, but remained close to them after the break. The 4 hours chart presents that the moving averages are neutral. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 102.50 resistance area. The second buyers’ target is the mark 103.00. AUD/USD General Overview The Aussie eased against the dollar amid the risk aversion and crude oil prices decline. Moreover, a strong U.S. statistics weighed on the Australian dollar. Current situation The AUD/USD traded in a narrow range ahead of U.S. CPI report on Friday. The quotes moved lower after the report. The prices bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards. All moving averages headed lower. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7460. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. The RSI oscillator headed south. Trading recommendations We preserve our bearish outlook. The price may extend its recovery, however, the resistance 0.7540 is strong enough to stop buyers. A downtrend will start as soon, as the pair fixates below the level 0.7500. The level 0.7460 is the next sellers’ target. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices remained under pressure due to the strong dollar and lack of clarity over the timing of next Fed rate-hike. Current situation The pair remained under pressure on Friday. The price left the consolidation range and advanced lower. The yellow metal headed towards the next support level at 1300. Gold futures trended below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which accelerated their declines. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading lower. The resistance is at 1316, the support comes in at 1300 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the oversold area. Trading recommendations If the pressure persists the price is expected to decline towards 1300. Brent General overview Crude oil prices are under pressure again as Libyan and Nigerian exports are back in the game which reinforced supply glut concerns. Current situation Brent is now decisively trading below the 46.50 mark. Bears pushed the price lower and stopped a few pips above 45.30. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading lower, the 200-EMA preserved a bullish slope. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD was in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area Trading recommendations The loss of the 45.30 level will point to a further period of downside to come. The level 44.30 will be the next sellers' target. If Brent does a bullish rebound the oil prices will grow towards 46.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks traded lower as stocks doubted that the EU regulator had any tool to support the Eurozone economy. Besides, Mario Draghi stated that the ECB did not need any stimulus right now which disappointed investors. Current situation The index had a negative day again. The price gapped lower at the open on Friday. Sellers finally broke the level 10350 and dragged the price lower. The daily low was marked at 10250. DAX traded below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The 50 and 100 EMAs headed south, the 200-EMA is moving upwards. The resistance is seen at 10350, the support lies at 10175. MACD remained in the negative area. RSI reached the oversold area Trading recommendations In the scenario where the sellers keep control the price will decrease towards 10175. A move above 10350 will return buyers in the game. Buyers will push the price towards 10520. S&P500 General overview Wall Street closed the week lower when decrease in Oil & Gas and Financials sectors weighed on the shares. Current situation The index enjoyed a mixed session through trade on Friday. The price decreased during the Asian and European sessions and recovered during the North American hours. S&P500 traded around 2140 the whole day. The price is well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs продолжили свое нисходящее движение. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is neutral Trading recommendations A downtrend will start as soon, as the S&P500 drops below the support level 2140. A break above 2150 would open the way to 2160. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 16.09.2016 Euro General overview A weak retail sales report slightly softened the U.S. dollar. However, the growth of the euro was limited by the weak statistics in the EU. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims report which came in better than expected. Current situation The pair remained in the middle of the consolidation range. The EUR/USD went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday. The support level 1.1200 together with the 50 and 100 EMAs provided a support for the instrument. The moving averages maintained a moderately bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 1.1270, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.1200. After breaking the first target the price will advance towards 1.1130. Pound General overview The pound got under selling pressure following the BoE’s decision to leave the rates unchanged. The regulator highlighted that he was ready to lower the rates again if the economy does not show any descent progress in the nearest future. Current situation The pound got under intense selling pressure when the BoE left unchanged its rates and policy. Sellers have the ball now. They are struggling for a control over the 1.3200 level. The price touched the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is pointing lower, the 100 and 200 Day EMAs are neutral. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. MACD is negative. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. RSI is approaching the oversold territory Trading recommendations If the pressure persists the downward movement will be continued. In this potential scenario, the pair will break the level 1.3200 and advance towards 1.3100. Yen General overview The yen slightly strengthened on the back of the weaker U.S. statistics. Besides, traders preferred safe assets ahead of the BoJ and the Fed’s meeting the next week. Current situation After a brief consolidation during the Asian session the price suffered a short lived downward movement. Sellers were able to push the price lower the level 102.50. The price found a descent support at the mark 102.00 where the daily moving averages stand. The moving averages 50, 100 and 200 are neutral. The price is still struggling with the moving averages to decline further. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 102.50. However, we do not exclude the falls to 101.40. USD/CAD General Overview The Canadian dollar is weaker against the U.S. dollar as oil price decreased, but the risk aversion is limited. Current situation The USA/CAD is in ascending channel, close to its upper boundary. After a brief test of the weekly highs near 1.3200 the price made an attempt to return below the tested level. Sellers seem to be struggling for the level 1.3200 now. The moving averages are below the price. The 50 EMA is crossing upward the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100. MACD remained in the positive area. MACD is at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI left the overbought area Trading recommendations The undertone is still positive. If the price overcomes the level 1.3200 the upward trajectory will be continued. If the level holds the instrument will sell-off towards 1.3100. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices are under pressure, near the 2 week lows as investors will be focused on the upcoming U.S statistics to evaluate the possibilities of an eventual Fed rate-hike. Current situation The pair remained under pressure. Bears kept control over the market. Sellers were able to push the price lower the mark 1316 dollar per ounce. Gold futures remained below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which act as a resistance for the price. The 4 hours chart shows that the 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards. The moving averages keep heading lower. The resistance is at 1316, the support comes in at 1300 dollar per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold territory. Trading recommendations The XAU/USD pair will mostly depend on the US data. The break below 1316 suggests the further weakness of the metal. All eyes are right now at the level 1310. If the level holds the price may recover above 1316. Should the price overcome the mark and the downward trajectory will persist. Brent General overview Brent prices tried to recover on Thursday; however, concerns over a global supply glut kept weighing on the price. Current situation In the medium term, the outlook is bearish. Oil prices failed to regain the 46.50 level. After a brief consolidation in the European session the price faced further downside pressure at the start of the North American session. The Brent is well below its moving averages, with the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs providing a strong resistance in the 47.50 region. The moving averages showed mixed dynamics. The 50 and 100 EMAs are heading south, the 200-EMA is pointing higher. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD is within the negative area. RSI is consolidating within the oversold territory. Trading recommendations If the resistance at 46.50 will break, the price may grow that should send this market looking for the 47.50 level. To trigger additional downward movement the instrument needs to get below 45.30. DAX General overview European stocks are under pressure the sixth session in a row. Current situation The index had a negative day on Thursday. The price stayed near weekly lows at 10350. Sellers are trying to break the level. However, all their attempts meet a strong resistance from the buyers' side. DAX traded below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing lower, the 200-EMA is trending north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. The indicators slightly changed from Wednesday. Trading recommendations The tone is still negative in the market. If DAX breaks the current support the index might extend its decrease towards 10175. To grow the price needs to bounce from 10350. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street slightly changed at the open on Thursday. Stocks are evaluating the weak U.S. statistics. NASDAQ was the only index which jumped at the start of the new trading session. The growth of Apple shares boosted the index upwards. Apple is up after its latest iPhone presentation. Current situation The index jumped to a weekly high on Thursday. The price got under buying pressure, buyers were able to push the price towards 4770. NASDAQ broke the level and is heading higher now. The instrument broke the bearish 50 and 100 EMAs and touched the neutral 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 4800, the support is at 4770. Trading recommendations We believe that this is essentially a “buy only” market at the moment. The NASDAQ index now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance at 4800. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 15.09.2016 Euro General overview The EUR/USD pair ignored the weak Industrial Production report in the Eurozone. The quotes remained at the previous levels. Current situation The pair is trading in a consolidation range, not far from the recent lows. The euro gets under selling pressure on any up-move towards 1.1270. The price remained above the 50-EMA which acts as a support. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 1.1270, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is neutral, the indicator is close to the negative territory. Trading recommendations In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.1200 the price will decrease towards 1.1130. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.1270. Pound General overview The market was inactive on Wednesday, digesting the latest labour market data. Traders stands still ahead of the BoE's meeting on Thursday. Current situation The pound made an attempt to regain the level 1.3200. The pair stopped its recovery slightly above 1.3200 in the European session. The sterling got under pressure during the North American hours. Sellers returned the price below 1.3200. The price traded lower the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral, the 50-EMA is pointing lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3200, the support exists at 1.3100. MACD remained in the negative area. RSI is within the negative territory. Trading recommendations The pound is under pressure that suggests its further weakness. Sellers' nearest target remained the support level 1.3200. The second sellers' target is the level 1.3100. Yen General overview The yen weakened on Wednesday following the speculations on further BoJ easing its monetary policy. Current situation The dollar grew to a six-day high against the yen. The price almost reached 103.50 when it reversed and decreased to 102.50. The price is above its moving averages, with the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs providing a strong dynamic support in the 102.00 region. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is within positive territory. Trading recommendations A break above 103.50 would open the way to 104.50. Once we break below the 102.50 level, we think that the 101.40 level will be next. NZD/USD General Overview The kiwi eased on the back of a weaker-than-expected Current Account in the country. Current situation The price bounced off 0.7250 and traded higher on Wednesday. The upwards trend is still intact despite the recent decline. The NZD is struggling with the bullish 200-EMA to go lower in the 4 hours chart. The price is sandwiched between the 100 and 200 EMAs in the mentioned timeframe. The 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing lower. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is consolidating within oversold territory. Trading recommendations The tone is still negative in the market. A move below 0.7250 will signal the presence of sellers. The sellers will lead the price to 0.7200. In the scenario where buyers return control the NZD/USD will grow towards 0.7400 through 0.7320. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices traded lower on Wednesday ahead of expected U.S. retail sales report on Thursday. Traders expect the report will highlight a possible timing of the U.S. interest rate change. Current situation The gold partly recovered on Wednesday after Tuesday’s fall. The metal returned above 1316 and stopped at 1323 dollar per once. The pressure on the gold persists. The price is below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316 dollar per ounce. MACD is in the negative territory. RSI turned south and remained within negative territory. Trading recommendations If the pressure persists a strong breakdown and close below 1316 could send prices lower towards 1310. Alternatively, the price will grow towards 1330. Brent General overview Brent decreased on expectations of U.S. oil inventories figures growth. Current situation After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours on Wednesday the price got under intense selling pressure and dropped to 46.50. The price broke the bullish 200-EMA and advanced away from it. The 100-EMA is still moving upwards, the 50-EMA is turning down. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD remained within the negative area which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold area. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a decline towards the 45.30 support area. DAX General overview European stocks traded in green figures after 4-day decline as investors preferred safe assets ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week. Current situation DAX traded flat after a recent decrease. Investors consolidated their gains, awaiting for new drivers. The index went back and forth between 10350 and 10450. The instrument bounced from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is moving upwards, the 50 and 100 EMAs direction is downwards. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. The indicators remained within negative territory. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is consolidating above the oversold territory. Trading recommendations As DAX is under pressure we feel comfortable taking short-term short positions. The price is struggling with 10350 now. If sellers break the level they will lead the price 10230. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened lower on Wednesday as oil prices decrease and uncertainty over the Fed rate hike weigh on stocks. Current situation The index got under selling pressure after recovery during the Asian hours. The price continued to advance south. Sellers are struggling with 2130 to go lower. However, the price gets under buying pressure on any down-move towards 2120. The S&P500 traded below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130. The indicators stalled within the negative territory. Trading recommendations A break below 2130 would open the way to 2120. A close above 2140 will strengthen buyers' positions. Buyers will lead the price towards 2150. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 14.09.2016 Euro General overview The euro remained under pressure following the negative Economic Sentiment in Germany for September. Current situation The pair EUR/USD traded within a tight range on Tuesday. The price went back and forth between 1.1220-1.1240 during the day. The instrument stayed above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 4 hour charts shows that the price is currently struggling with a bullish 50-EMA. All moving averages maintain a bullish slope and stand around the level 1.1200, adding additional support to the price. The resistance is seen at 1.1270, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The level 1.1200 is an obstacle for sellers on their way down. Should that level break down and the price will fall to 1.1130. Pound General overview The pound softened on the weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index. Current situation The British pound had a negative day on Tuesday. After a brief consolidation at 1.3330 during the Asian hours the sterling continued moving lower in the European session, the day low was marked at 1.3225. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA upwards. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. MACD indicator is in the negative territory, that indicates sellers’ growing strength. RSI is moving towards the negative territory. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the support level 1.3200. The pound might bounce off the level. In this potential scenario buyers will lead the price towards the 1.3250 region. The pair GBP/USD might extend its downward trajectory towards 1.3100 if it breaks the level 1.3200. Yen General overview The dollar strengthened across the board when the Fed official’s comments revived speculations over the possible rate hike in September. Current situation The USD/JPY was in buy mode on Tuesday. The dollar erased losses which it suffered on Monday. Buyers were able to push the price towards 102.50. The instrument returned above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD is negative. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI rebounded from the oversold area Trading recommendations Bulls’ nearest target remains the same – 102.50. After breaking the level the price may extend its growth towards 103.00 and further out to 103.50. In the scenario where sellers are back the price will break 101.40 and advance to 100.40. AUD/USD General Overview The Aussie fell on Tuesday on the back of the central bank officials’ comments that the regulator needs a weaker currency. Current situation The recent recovery from 0.7500 appeared to be overextended. The price returned below 0.7540 and is consolidating its gains now. The price is developing below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages keep heading lower. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards. The resistance is at 0.7540, the support comes in at 0.7500. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is consolidating within the oversold area. Trading recommendations We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. The level 0.7500 holds the pair from its further decrease. A break below this mark risks a decline towards the next support at 0.7460. XAUUSD General overview Expectations over the Fed’s next monetary policy action remain a key determinant for the pair. The uncertainty over the issue weighs on the metal. Current situation The gold prices remained under pressure. Its latest recovery appeared to be overextended and the metal returned below 1330 dollar per ounce. The day low was marked at 1321. The XAU/USD broke the moving averages down. The moving averages maintain a bearish slope. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316 dollar per ounce. Trading recommendations Gold futures are under pressure. A strong breakdown and close below 1320 could send prices lower towards 1316. Alternatively, the metal will grow through 1330 towards 1335. Brent General overview Brent prices got under pressure following the IEA forecasts over a sharp slowdown in global oil demand growth. Current situation Brent seems to have found a solid support at 47.50 which slowed down its decrease. The price slightly rolled back and stopped a few pips above the level in the European session. The quotes returned to a decrease in the North American session. The price bounced downwards from the bearish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The crude oil futures are heading towards the 200-EMA now. The 50-EMA is bearish, the 200-EMA is bullish and the 100-EMA is neutral. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. MACD entered the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area. Trading recommendations A weak API report will weigh on Brent. In this scenario, the price will decrease towards 46.50. Otherwise, we will see a move above 48.50. DAX General overview European stocks are neutral after a 3-day decrease. Current situation The index was neutral on Tuesday after a rapid growth the day before. The price remained in an ascending channel, close to its lower boundary. The overall tone is bullish. DAX traded close to the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA acts as a support and limits its further decline. The 50 and 100 EMAs formed a crossover and are turning downwards. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the oversold territory. Trading recommendations If the price remains below 10520 it may decline further. The level 10350 is the next sellers’ target. A break above 10520 would open the way to 10700. S&P500 General overview S&P500 opened lower due to the rate hike uncertainty and as the oil prices remained under pressure. Current situation The index retreated from the recent weekly high and is trending downwards. The price broke 2150 and 2140 and is approaching 2130 now. The instrument is moving away from the moving averages. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA downwards. All moving averages direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI approached the oversold territory. Trading recommendations The S&P 500 index now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 2130. The second sellers’ target lies at 2120. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 13.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar strengthened on the back of renewed speculation that the Fed will act as soon as this month and due to the ECB’s decision to keep the rate unchanged. Current situation The pair traded flat on Monday. The price was able to recover in the Asian session. However, the EUR/USD pair erased all its previous gains at the start of the European session. The price got under selling pressure and was trending towards 1.1200 during the European hours. The euro touched the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the price. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance is seen at 1.1270, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD is in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is neutral, its signal line is approaching the oversold area. Trading recommendations If the pressure persists the EUR/USD pair can fall below 1.1200. In this potential scenario, sellers will push the price to 1.1130. On the other hand, the EUR/USD can recover up to the 1.1300 region. Pound General overview There were no macroeconomic releases in the UK on Monday. The market will be focused on Core Consumer Price Index in the coming sessions. Current situation The pound trades within a tight range on Monday, not far from Friday's low. The price went back and forth between 1.3244 – 1.3285 during the day. The pound/dollar recovered at the start of the North American session. The price briefly broke the 50-EMA and immediately returned above it in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA upwards in the same chart. The moving averages preserve a bullish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold territory. Trading recommendations A bearish continuation through the 1.3200 level should lead to a continued decrease, with 1.3100 as the first target. The sterling can recover to the 1.3360 region. Yen General overview The yen grew on the back of stronger Machinery Orders report. Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index decreased in the country. Investors are looking for new hints regarding the Fed rate hike in coming months. Current situation The price retreated from the previous week’s top and got under selling pressure. The pair is trending lower through the 102.50 mark. The immediate low is at 101.70. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The loss of the 102.50 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. The price may fall further to 101.40 and 101.20. USD/CAD General Overview The dollar is strong across the board due to expectations of an eventual Fed rate-hike action in September. Traders are waiting for new Fed’s official comments. Current situation The greenback is still strong against its Canadian counterpart. Traders pushed the price higher and the pair seems to have found an immediate resistance at 1.3100 where the price turned down and trended south. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs accelerated their growth. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations A clear strength above this immediate resistance will pave way for continuation of the pair's growth towards 1.3200. Alternatively, sellers will lead the price below 1.3100 towards the 1.3040 region. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures weakened amid reviving hopes of an eventual Fed rate-hike in September. Current situation Gold traded at 4-day lows on Monday. After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours the metal returned to a decrease in the European session. The instrument broke through the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs and headed away from them. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1316 per ounce. MACD is negative. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold area. Trading recommendations As anticipated the price broke the 1330 level. Now the gold futures are advancing south. The level 1316 is the next sellers’ target. Brent General overview Brent prices weakened when the U.S. drillers added oil rigs last week. Current situation Brent kept trading lower on Monday. The price broke the 47.50 level and is approaching the next one – 46.50. The instrument was able to regain the 47.50 level and continued its recovery during the North American hours. The price broke the 50-EMA during the European trades on Monday. Now the oil prices are sandwiched between the 50 and 200 EMAs. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are turning down, the 200-EMA is neutral. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area Trading recommendations A strong breakdown and close below 46.50 could send prices lower towards 45.30. However, the instrument is oversold and we do not exclude a large correction towards 48.50. DAX General overview DAX decreased when risk aversion returned to the market on expectations that the Fed may raise its rates in September. Current situation The index gapped lower at the open on Monday. The price jumped from 10460 to 10420. DAX weakened further during the Asian and European session. The instrument seems to have found a support at 10350 where it can pause after 3-day decrease. The index quotes gapped over the 200-EMA which acts as a resistance now. The 200-EMA extended its advance north, the 100-EMA is crossing the 50-EMA, both lines are turning down. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations The overall picture is bearish. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 10350 the price may drop to 10175. DAX found a strong support at the level of 10350. We don’t exclude a larger bullish correction tomorrow. The price may recover towards 10520. Nasdaq General overview Nasdaq opened lower on Monday on the back of oil prices decrease and revived hopes that the Fed will hike the rate next week. Current situation The index was under pressure during the Asian session on Monday. Nasdaq bounced off the level 4630 and erased some of its losses during the North American hours. The price is well below its 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning south. The resistance is seen at 4680, the support is at 4650. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory Trading recommendations We expect a further recovery towards 4680 now. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 4700 is possible. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 12.09.2016 Euro General overview The euro grew after the ECB decision to leave rates unchanged. Current situation The euro is still bullish despite last week upside rejection. After climbing to highs above 1.1280 the price retreated to the 1.1270 area where it formed a narrow range on Friday. After a short-term consolidation the price fell further towards 1.1200. The moving averages maintain the bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA bounced from the 200-EMA and crossed the 100-EMA upwards in the same chart. The resistance is seen at 1.1270, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD shows a divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI is consolidating within the overbought territory. Trading recommendations If buyers manage to make a breakout of 1.1270 they will push the price towards 1.1350. Conversely, sellers will lead the quotes towards the 1.1200 area. Pound General overview The pound is inactive against the dollar after disappointing Trade Balance in the country. The dollar is still weak due to the fading expectations of the Fed rate hike. Current situation The tone is still positive in the market. The GBP/USD was almost unchanged on Friday, consolidating in a range 1.3300 – 1.3340. The moving averages are moving upwards. The 50-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA upwards, the 200-EMA is touching the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is approaching the negative territory. Trading recommendations The overall picture remains bullish, however, soft near-term studies maintain risk of stronger correction towards 1.3100. Yen General overview The dollar strengthened against the yen despite the reduced expectations over the rate hike in the USA in September. Current situation The bullish views are still popular. The dollar continued its rally after a brief consolidation in the Asian session on Friday. The price broke 102.50 and is trying to consolidate over it. The instrument broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs upwards and is heading away from them. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is advancing towards the overbought area. Trading recommendations The pair seems to continue with the recovery. The price is heading towards 103.50. NZD/USD General Overview The commodity currencies fell in the light of oil prices decrease. Investors were cutting their long positions after the recent sharp rally of oil prices. Current situation Despite the bullish trend, sellers have the ball now. Bears are pushing the price down, the instrument is approaching the support 0.7320. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is upwards. The NZD/USD is approaching the 50-EMA which acts as a support for the price. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support comes in at 0.7320. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ weakness. RSI left the overbought area and is approaching the oversold one. Trading recommendations If the downward pressure persists sellers will lead the price towards 0.7320. Alternatively, the price may rebound upwards from the nearest support and resume its uptrend towards 0.7400-0.7450. XAUUSD General overview The gold prices continued retreated from the 2 week high. However its decrease is expected to be limited due the dollar weakness across the board. Current situation The technical picture presents a slightly bearish tone. The price is consolidating at 1336 after a sharp decrease. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving upwards. The resistance is at 1350, the support comes in at 1330 per ounce. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ weakness. RSI left the overbought area and is approaching the oversold one. Trading recommendations Sellers’ first target is the level 1330 per ounce. After breaking the level they will push the price to 1320. In the scenario where buyers are back the gold quotes will grow towards 1350. Brent General overview Oil prices strengthened across the board on the back of the largest oil inventories drawing since 1999. Current situation Brent prices retreated from the recent high on Friday when buyers started closing their positions after a rally the day before. The price returned below 49.50 and is approaching the support 48.50. Crude oil prices are approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA extended its growth, the 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards. The resistance is at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel. MACD is in the positive area. The indicator decreased which indicates the buyers’ weakness. RSI bounced from the overbought territory. Trading recommendations We believe that the price is heading towards 48.50 dollars per barrel. If the level could stand the Brent will return to its growth and buyers will push the instrument above 49.50. The next buyers’ target is the level 50.50 dollars per barrel. Sellers, in their turn, may push the price towards 47.50. DAX General overview European stocks keep showing disappointment over the latest ECB decision to leave rates unchanged. Current situation In the trading on Friday, September 9, the DAX traded lower on the back of disappointing statistics from the EU. The price remains within a narrow bullish channel. Sellers pushed the price to its lower boundary. The 4 hours chart shows that the price is currently struggling with a bullish 50 and 100 EMAs. The moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support lies at 10520. The MACD indicator decreased which indicates the buyers’ weakening. RSI is moving from the overbought territory. Trading recommendations The price may decrease to 10520. A cut through here will aim the index at the 10440 mark. S&P500 General overview Wall Street traded lower on Friday after the ECB disappointing decision which weighed on the global stocks. Current situation The index closed the day in red figures. S&P500 got under intense selling pressure on Friday. The price sharply fell from the mark 2177 towards the current support 2165. The instrument broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs downwards. The resistance is seen at 2180, the support is at 2165. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI approached the oversold area. Trading recommendations We expect a further decline towards 2160. We do not exclude a short-term correction towards 2170. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 09.09.2016 Euro General overview As it was anticipated the European Central Bank decided to leave key interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Current situation The tone was positive during the course of the day. Buyers were able to push the price higher and broke the level 1.1270 in the earlier European session. The pair retreated from the high after the ECB meeting. Now the price is trending to the support at 1.1270. The single European currency is heading away from the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintain the bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 1.1350, the support stands at 1.1270. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Trading recommendations The short positions are more actual now. The EUR/USD may roll back towards the 1.1270 region. After breaking the level the price will go to 1.1200. Pound General overview The pound softened on the back of the weaker Manufacturing Production report and Governor Carney's dovish comments. Current situation The bullish tone that started mid August remains firm in place. The GBP/USD is in an ascending channel, close to its lower limit. The pair got under the selling pressure and is falling towards 1.3200 now. The 50-EMA is crossing the 200 and 100 EMAs upwards. All moving averages keep heading higher. The current resistance is seen at 1.3360, the support exists at 1.3200. MACD remained in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations If the GBP/USD regains the level 1.3360 the price will grow towards the round level – 1.3400. The mark 1.3440 is the next buyers’ target. In case of the selling scenario sellers will drag the price towards the 1.3200 area. Yen General overview The revised GDP report in Japan came in at 0.2% vs. expectations of 0.0%. The yen grew on the back of the weak U.S dollar after disappointing statistics and due to traders' concerns that the BoJ may not soften its policy further. Current situation The USD/JPY was neutral during the European hours and became more volatile in the North American session on Thursday. The price was at 101.40 the first part of the day and slightly grew when US traders came to the market. The instrument stays below the bearish 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which extended their decrease. The 100-EMA acts as a resistance for the price. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD is in the negative area. RSI is close to the oversold area. Trading recommendations The dollar is trying to reverse its losses. If the pair preserves an upward momentum the price will grow towards 102.50. AUD/USD General Overview According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics the trade deficit narrowed to A$2.410B in July vs. expectations of A$2.750. Current situation The aussie was stronger in the Asian session on Thursday, trading near local high against the dollar. Bulls managed to break the level 0.7700 on the back of the positive statistics. The pair retreated from the high in the European session, the AUD/USD is heading towards 0.7650. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) accelerated their growth. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ weakness. RSI left the overbought area. Trading recommendations Technically, the instrument is overbought and we do not exclude a correction to the 0.7650 region. XAUUSD General overview The gold prices retreated from the 2 week high after a recent rally caused by negative US statistics. Current situation The XAU/USD was in buy mode on Thursday. Buyers were trying to erase the recent losses and led the price from the local low to the nearest resistance level – 1350 during the European session. The XAU/USD got under pressure in the North American session and decreased towards 1340. The instrument remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the mentioned timeframe. All moving averages are turning upwards. The resistance is at 1350, the support comes in at 1330 per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The pair is overbought and we anticipate a short term correction. The price may decrease towards 1330. Brent General overview Brent prices grew on the back of the strong Imports in China and API crude oil stocks report in the USA. Current situation Brent prices stayed in green figures on Thursday. The instrument traded near the recent high at 48.88 during the European session. The price decreased at the start of the American session. The price touched the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA stopped the price which rebounded from it. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral, the 50-EMA is heading south. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel. MACD is in the positive area. RSI is moving from the overbought territory. Trading recommendations The price may slightly roll back below 48.50. However, the overall tone is bullish. The next buyers’ target is the level 49.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks traded lower after the ECB’s decision to keep the rate unchanged. Current situation The price holds a bullish tone and the trend is objectively bullish in the 4 hours chart. The index remained close to the recent highs, trading above the support 10700 ahead of the ECB meeting. The price retreated from the weekly high and dropped below 10700 in the North American session. The DAX is hovering above the moving averages (50, 100 and 200) in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support lies at 10520. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI left the overbought area. Trading recommendations DAX may test the support level 10520 soon. Should the price break the level and its downward trajectory will continue towards 10350. Nasdaq General overview Wall Street opened lower on Thursday despite the positive Initial Jobless claims report and the ECB decision regarding the rates. Current situation The index decreased from the recent high on Thursday. Despite the current decrease the overall tone is still bullish. Buyers are not hurrying to give up their recent gains. The price is struggling for the level 4800 now. The 100-EMA is neutral, the 50 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 4835, the support is at 4800. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI rebounded from the overbought area Trading recommendations The tone is switched to the bearish. We believe the price will break the level 4800 and will fall to 4770. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 08.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar retreated from the recent lows. However, we believe its growth will be limited in the light of the disappointing US statistics. Current situation After a sharp growth the pair holds below 1.1270. The consolidation is so far holding within 1.1230 and 1.1270 range. The euro stays above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards. The resistance is seen at 1.1270, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels. Trading recommendations The price may reverse some of its losses and decrease to the 1.1180 region where the moving averages reside. The lines can provide a support for the price which may bounce upwards to presume its growth. The levels 1.1270 and 1.1350 are the next buyers’ targets. Pound General overview The pound softened due to a weak Industrial Production report. The production fell more than expected in July. Current situation The pound experienced a strong rally against the US dollar on Tuesday. Today the sterling came under renewed selling pressure. The GBP/USD pair retreated from the recent highs and is testing the support 1.3360. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs maintain a strong bullish slope. The 50-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA upwards which is a buy signal. The current resistance is seen at 1.3500, the support exists at 1.3360. MACD shows a divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI stays within the overbought area. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the support level 1.3360. Should that level break down and the GBP/USD will return to a decrease. Sellers’ targets are the levels 1.3270 and 1.3200. The pound will continue to advance north if the price breaks the mark 1.3440. The resistance 1.3500 is the next buyers’ target. Yen General overview The yen strengthened against the dollar following the Foreign Reserves report for August. Weaker-than-expected figures diminished the possible policy softening in September. Current situation USD/JPY’s outlook has shifted to neutral from bearish. The instrument stays at the recent lows. The 50-EMA bounced from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning down in the same chart. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD entered the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remains within negative territory. Trading recommendations The pair remains in red figures. Any rebound above 101.40 should be considered corrective. The USD/JPY may grow up to the 102.15 region where the 200-EMA may limit its further growth. The levels 101.40 and 100.40 are the next sellers’ targets. USD/CAD General Overview The US dollar retreats as the Fed hike hopes fade in the market. The oil prices growth supported the Canadian dollar. Traders are waiting for the BoC meeting results. Current situation The pair is trading in a consolidation range between 1.2824 - 1.2864. The USD/CAD shows neutral sentiment. The moving averages preserve a bearish slope. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.2900, the support comes in at 1.2800. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is consolidating within the negative territory. Trading recommendations The pair USD/CAD may grow towards the resistance 1.2900 where it can reverse and return to a decrease. Sellers will push the price towards 1.2800. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures are still in green figures after a surprisingly weak U.S. service sector report which reduced expectations for the next U.S. rate hike in 2016. Current situation Gold prices remained at the weekly highs on Wednesday. Buyers seem to have run out of steam and the pair is going back and forth in a strict range between the marks 1345 – 1352. The gold prices are above the moving averages which are pointing upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1350, the support comes in at 1330 per ounce. MACD and RSI slightly changed from yesterday. Indicators generate a buy signal. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 1360 resistance area. However, as the XAU/USD is overbought we expect a short term correction towards 1330. Brent General overview The latest agreement among Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia over a potential output freeze supported oil prices. All eyes are on the API report now. Current situation Brent futures returned under selling pressure in the middle of the European session. Earlier, the price partly erased its losses. Buyers managed to push the oil prices from the support 46.50 above the level 47.50. The Brent bounced from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA shows a bearish slope, the 100-EMA is still moving upwards and the 200-EMA is neutral. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. MACD remained in the positive area. RSI is consolidating within the overbought territory. Trading recommendations The indicators recommend short positions. Once we break below the 47.50 level, we think that the 46.50 level will be next. Alternatively, Brent may extend its recovery towards 48.50. DAX General overview DAX index was neutral on Wednesday as traders are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Current situation The index showed neutral trades on Wednesday. The price remained near the recent high at 10700. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs maintain bullish slope. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The resistance is seen at 10900, the support lies at 10700. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations We expect markets to stay fairly neutral ahead of the ECB meeting. The price will remain at 10700. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street opened neutral on Wednesday as traders wait for the new drivers and clues when the Fed may raise the rate next time. Current situation The index slightly decreased from the recent high at the start of the day. Sellers pushed the price to the level 2180. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a support for the price. The resistance is seen at 2190, the support is at 2180. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI slightly moved from the overbought area. Trading recommendations In the light of the disappointing statistics sellers could return to the market. In the scenario where traders are back the S&P500 will get below 2180 and will advance to the 2170 region. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 07.09.2016 Euro General overview A weaker-than-expected Non-Manufacturing PMI softened the dollar and sent it to the monthly low. Current situation The pair traded under pressure, the price remained close to 1.1130 in the Asian and European sessions on Tuesday. The instrument grew on the back of a weak Non-Manufacturing PMI during the North American hours. The pair broke the level 1.1200 and trended towards 1.1270. The EUR/USD broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs and headed north from them in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 1.1270, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is growing towards the overbought area. Trading recommendations A break above 1.1270 would open the way to 1.1350. Should the price return below the 1.1200 level and the way towards 1.1130 will be opened. Pound General overview The GBP/USD is positive due to a strong Services PMI in the country. Moreover, the sterling grew on the back of a weak U.S Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. Current situation There were no major events on the UK schedule and the pound traded under the influence of external factors. The pair remained in green figures on Tuesday. The price recovered from yesterday’s lows and returned to the resistance 1.3360 during the European session. The instrument accelerated upwards and broke the 1.3360 in the North American session. The 4 hours chart shows that GBP/USD hovered over the moving averages which are modestly bullish. The 50-EMA rebounded from the 100-EMA and crossed upwards the 200-EMA which is a buy signal. The current resistance is seen at 1.3500, the support exists at 1.3360. MACD shows convergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI entered the overbought area. Trading recommendations The level 1.3360 is the key level now. If the price gets below it we will take into account a continuation of the downtrend towards 1.3200. To trigger additional upward momentum the GBP/USD needs to consolidate over 1.3360. Yen General overview Uncertainty over the timing of next Fed rate-hike and the disappointing U.S statistics weighed on the pair. The dollar got under pressure on Tuesday when the US services sector unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level since January 2010. Current situation The pair has been trading in a consolidation range since last Wednesday. Buyers’ attempts to continue an upward movement failed, the price stayed close to the resistance 103.50 during the day. After disappointing U.S statistics the dollar got under pressure and fell to 5-day low. Sellers led the price from 103.50 towards 102.50. The USD/JPY touched the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200 Day EMAs in the mentioned timeframe. All moving averages are turning around. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD formed a divergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI is heading towards the oversold territory. Trading recommendations The market is bearish right now. We see it heading south towards 101.40. NZD/USD Current situation The NZD was stronger on Tuesday, trading near local high against the dollar. Traders pushed the pair higher and the price was able to break the resistance 0.7320 and touched the level 0.7400. The new session high is at 0.7413 now. The NZD/USD remained above the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs. The moving averages continued their advance north. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support comes in at 0.7320. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations The price may roll back below 0.7400 which is a good option to buy the price. If the NZD/USD breaks 0.7250 the downward movement will continue to the 0.7200 region where the 200-EMA lies. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures grew on the back of disappointing U.S Non-Manufacturing PMI report. The latest negative U.S statistics reduced expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. Current situation Gold prices jumped to the weekly highs due to US negative Services PMI. The price broke the resistance 1330 and is trending towards 1350 now. The XAU/USD moved from the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving upwards. The resistance is at 1350, the support comes in at 1330 per ounce. MACD is in the positive area. RSI entered the overbought area. Trading recommendations We believe that this is essentially a “buy only” market at the moment. The next buyers’ target is the level 1350. Brent General overview Iraq's Prime Minister is in the focus now. According to Haider al-Abadi Iraq is ready to cooperate with Saudi Arabia and Russia to freeze on production to increase prices. Current situation The technical picture presents a slightly bearish tone. The price kept decreasing on Tuesday during the day. Brent found a support in the 106.50 region where the downward impulse faded and the price slightly rolled back. The 200-EMA stopped the oil prices downward movement. After touching the line the oil futures bounced off. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50-EMA is pointing lower, the 100-EMA is still moving upwards. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. The MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold area. Trading recommendations If the price returns above 47.50 the Brent futures will continue its uptrend. Alternatively, Brent will decrease below 46.50. Nasdaq General overview US stocks grew on Tuesday after weak services data. Non-Manufacturing PMI report weighed on Forex market and fueled rally of riskier assets - including stocks. Current situation The index had a positive day on Tuesday. Nasdaq continued moving higher and approached record highs touched in mid-August. The price bounced from the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The instrument is well above the moving averages now which are pointing higher. The resistance is seen at 4835, the support lies at 4800. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations As long as market is holding above 4800 the upward pressure will continue towards 4835. S&P 500 General overview Wall Street opened higher after 3-day long week-end. The latest US data diminished prospects of Fed rate-hike in September. Current situation The index was neutral during the day and active in the North American session. The price fell below 2180 on the latest news. The downward momentum immediately faded and the S&P500 returned back to the mark where it started the day. The index broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and bounced upwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 2190, the support is at 2180. The MACD and RSI indicators remain within positive territory. Trading recommendations We consider only buying positions now. The buyers’ target is the level 2190. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman