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"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 18.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The euro sharply fell against the dollar amid the risk appetite decline after the Paris terrorist attacks reports. The temporary support was the Eurozone October consumer price index (CPI) last estimate which revised the preliminary results. The indicator was increased to 0.1% y/y despite the fact that it previously recorded 0.0% y/y after - 0.1% y/y in September. The ZEW Institute German and the Eurozone business sentiment reports were the main event yesterday. The data came out better then forecasted 6,0 at the level of 10,4. The British pound also fell against the dollar. However, the "cable" losses were not so significant. Apparently, the pound stability continues to provide its appeal as the most high-yielding currency among the majors. The UK news was filled with important information for the pound, namely the inflation data which is one of the main indicators, according to which BoE corrects its monetary policy. By the end of the day the pair increased. The Japanese important economic news was not published; the yen continues to decline against the dollar, probably, on the lingering sentiment for the greenback and on the Japanese stock market optimism where the Nikkei grew by 1.22%. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The Eurozone October consumer prices index came out in its final assessment, the index was revised upwards. The total CPI was 0.1% versus 0.0% in the preliminary estimate and the forecast was with no changes, the core CPI was revised downwards from 1.0% y/y to 1.1% y/y. The data made no impression on the market. The ZEW economic sentiment index was published as well yesterday. It came out at the level of 10,4. The price resumed to its decline. The price consolidated below the level of 1.0730 and tried to test the support of 1.0630. The trade is at this level now. Indicators again indicate the "bearish" sentiment predominance. The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0550 will be opened. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound high stability may be the result not only the political situation in France, but also because of the UK inflation data where the October retail price index was expected with a growth from 0.8% y/y to 0.9% y/y. In fact the index came out at the level of 0.7%. The UK October consumer price index was expected at the same level of 1.0% y/y but showed a growth to 1.1%. The price is consolidating. After the support successful of 1.5200 breakthrough bears sent the price lower to the mark of 1.5150. Then the pair increased above the resistance level of 1.5200. The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. We do not exclude the growth to 1.5300. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese 3rd quarter GDP in the 2nd preliminary estimate was revised to -0.2% against -0.1%. The US important economic indices were published - the consumer price index and the industrial production volume. These data put pressure on the yen. However the dollar’s strengthening on the market allowed the pair to grow. The pair is trying to consolidate above the level of 123.20. After this mark successful breakthrough bears took over the initiative and sent the instrument downwards, trying to test the level from the top. The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 123.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 124.30. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
Dear clients and partners! We would like to inform you that Fort Financial Services participates in Money Fair Shanghai Expo during 6-8 November 2015. Money Fair Shanghai is a regular exclusive event that unites professionals of financial industry and gives the great opportunity to present new products to the clients. We are happy to meet you at our booth in Shanghai!
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Dear traders! From 26.10.2015 until 27.11.2015 Fort FS starts the unique promo-action "Support Margin Bonus". All company’s clients may take advantage of the "Support Margin Bonus" which will support your losses, by funding your trading account from 25 USD or the equivalent in another currency. "Support Margin Bonus" from Fort FS is a bonus which remains on your account at any drawdown including situations when the bonus amount is larger than the amount of own funds; as a result, it offers real support in traders’ work, regardless of the trading results, increasing the financial possibilities on your account. Rush to participate in this promo-action. Terms of the promo-action “Support Margin Bonus” can be found here Good luck in your trading. Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading.
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SWITCHING CLOCK TO WINTER TIME IN EU COUNTRIES ON THE NIGHT OF 24/25 OCTOBER 2015. CHANGING THE TRADE SERVER TIME Please pay your attention that Daylight Saving Time (Summer Time) ends on the night of 24/25 October 2015 and European countries will adjust the clocks backwards. United States will also turn to winter time on the night of 1/2 of November 2015 Thus all the american instruments and Forex instruments will be available for trading at 23:00 of the terminal time on the night of 24/25 of October. So the trades closing on the mentioned instruments will take place an hour earlier according to the European time. Trading on american exchange instruments and FOREX currencies will revert to usual terminal time on the 1st of November. Trading schedule change applies to the following exchanges: -CME -NYMEX -COMEX -NYSE -ICE US -NASDAQ as well as the Forex market and Spot. We remind that terminal time corresponds to the Central European time zone + 1 hour (CET+1) Please consider this information while planning your trading. Fort Financial Services
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Dear Clients! Our team understands that everyone is busy trading the welcome bonus. However, it is now the time to announce the final results of the promo-action "Ride a Wave". As it was promised, a draw was held with the help of the random number generation software and we are happy to announce the 5 winners who have doubled their reward amount received during the promo-action: 168744 (Malaysia) 167680 (Malaysia) 444903 (United Kingdom) 332926 (Russia) 244654 (Saudi Arabia) The team of the international broker Fort Financial Services congratulates the winners and wishes all the participants of the Welcome Bonus promo-action to achieve an equal success. We work for you!
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Dear traders! We are pleased to announce the launch of a promotional campaign "Welcome Bonus 15 USD". From 2015/10/12 to 2015/10/23 the welcome bonus of 15 USD or the equivalent in EUR is available to all customers. The bonus is available to both new customers and those who are already working with Fort Financial Services. If you are an existing customer and have previously received a welcome bonus of 5 USD, then during the term of the action you can take a new bonus 15 USD. You just need to click a button to get a bonus in the appropriate section of your Trader's Room. In case, your "old" welcome bonus 5 USD is still active, you can continue to work with it. Thus, some of you will be able to work simultaneously with two bonuses old and new. The trading turnover for bonuses will be calculated in series.
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Hello, dear forum participants! The broker with the international license, Fort Financial Services, gladly presents the achievements of our clients for the past month. We are very happy that, despite the unstable financial situation worldwide, our clients managed to catch their lucky wave and increased their capital. Top-10 payments of the last month: We congratulate the traders and wish them the best of luck. We hope that in the nearest time, forum participants will be part of our TOP and in next report we will also talk about you.
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Dear clients and partners! Fort Financial Services is happy to announce that the innovative investment system S.T.A.R. is available now for all clients! S.T.A.R. service is the advanced analogue of well known PAMM accounts. S.T.A.R. has been designed by our experts to provide the most favorable conditions for both investors and managers. The main advantages of S.T.A.R. investment platform are: - Innovative mechanism to control and limit the possible losses for investors. Investor has stable protection of his capital and unlimited capacity to receive profits. - The unique automatic equity balancing system for fund managers. - Diversification of investments We continue to elaborate additional technologies that will be introduced soon and will emphasize the uniqueness of S.T.A.R. investment services. Investment Service S.T.A.R. (Short Term Assets Revenue) is the advanced analogue of PAMM platform that allows investors to choose the best fund manager from the S.T.A.R. ranking and to invest capitals into a S.T.A.R. account operated by a particular fund manager. The fund manager can handle the funds of different investors within a S.T.A.R. account to make profits and to receive his share of profits at the end of investment period according to the terms and conditions of the S.T.A.R. account. Happy trading!
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Dear Traders and Partners! Starting from the 7th of September until the 9th of October Fort Financial Services starts a new promo action "Ride a Wave". During the promo action for each profitable or non-profitable position an additional percent of the profit or loss will be credited to your account. You can learn more about the accruals in the Table. The rewards received for your trading can be withdrawn at any time without limitations. At the end of the promo action “Ride a Wave” your accounts will participate in a Lucky Draw!!! By the method of a random selection, the 5 trading accounts will be chosen regardless of the deposited amount and the profit amount. For these lucky accounts, the rewards amount resulting from your trading will be doubled (please read carefully the terms and conditions of the promo action). These funds may be immediately withdrawn with no restrictions. You can learn more about terms and conditions of promo action on the official website of the international broker Fort Financial Services. Catch your lucky wave with Fort Financial Services!
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Dear Traders! Internationally licensed broker Fort Financial Services would like to inform you that 07.09.2015 a unique promo action, aimed to help our clients to get extra profit will start! All the terms and conditions of this promo action will be available soon on our official website and in our threads on forums. Follow the company’s news!
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New payment system Fasapay Dear traders and partners! We are pleased to inform you that the international payment system FasaPay is available now for depositing and withdrawing funds. The commission for Deposits and Withdrawals is 0%. Good luck in trading!
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Dear traders! During 11,12,13 September 2015 the annual exhibition "Shanghai Forex Expo 2015" will take place in China (Shanghai). This three-days event will unite traders, investors, partners, IBs and brokers from all around the world. Tens of thousands of participants have applied to attend this unique event! The international broker Fort Financial Services, is approved by the organizers, as a strategic partner of "Shanghai Forex Expo 2015". We invite you to visit our expo-booth and discuss with our managers in person our innovations and unique services for traders. Among participants of the "Shanghai Forex Expo 2015" you will see the leading analysts and financial experts working in the best companies that provide services on Forex. During the event the best companies, leaders in their respective industries, will be awarded! We are pleased that the quality of our services has been appreciated by our clients, as well as the organizers of the "Shanghai Forex Expo". The international broker Fort Financial Services is awarded as the «Best STP / ECN broker»! Happy trading!
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"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 18.08.2015 Fundamental analysis There was a multidirectional movement in the currency market. The chief troublemaker was the China Central Bank, it did not give any reason for the emotions surge and set the daily yuan fixing against the dollar almost without changes compared with the previous day, it has made it clear that the bank keeps to its stabilization promises. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the weak France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP data. The Eurozone and its major countries GDP assessment showed a growth, but it was worse than forecasted. The euro was supported by the Greece policy information plan. the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields decline. In addition, the impression was caused by the UK controversial employment report somewhat blunted and the pound rose up against the US dollar in the news absence that can add negativity. However the pair’s growth was short-term and the pair fell by the end of the day. By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the investors escape from the carry trade transactions which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The Japan stock market has declined that slightly increased interest to the yen, the US shares increase allowed the dollar only to neutralize some of the losses. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The EU published its June trade balance. The data came out at the level of 26.4B. The German 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US, UK and Australian counterparts, making European assets less attractive to investors. The resistance level of 1.1150 was tested twice last week. The repeated level of 1.1130 testing was followed by the active prices decline with the following bullish trend reversal. The pair is trading around the support level of 1.1050. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1150, 1.1260. Pound (GBP) General overview The June UK weak labor market raise doubts on the monetary tightening prospects by the Bank of England in 2016. The UK unemployment rate in the second quarter rose up by 0.1% while the US unemployment rate has decreased by 0.2%. The September USA rate hike expectations are intensified amid the positive economic data. In addition, the dollar is supported by the oil prices decline. The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the pair rebound downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We may expect the consolidation around the support level of 1.5550 further on we expect a growth to 1.5670, 1.5775. Yen (JPY) General overview The second quarter Japan GDP preliminary data showed -0.4% q/q vs. 1.1% q/q in the first quarter and the forecast was -0.5% q/q. These messages did not evoke any emotions in the market. On Wednesday the Japan foreign trade assessment will be presented - it is expected the exports increase and the imports reduction which is able to bring the trade balance deficit to the minimum. The level of 124.30 breakthrough was followed by the reversal level testing. Now this mark acts as a strong support where the continuous consolidation was formed. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations Currently, the price is trading above the support level of 124.30. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 123.50. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 17.08.2015 Fundamental analysis Last week the US dollar was able to compensate only some of the lost positions. The dollar was supported by the US economic data – the US July retail sales suggested that the US economy is reviving; it brings the Fed monetary policy tightening beginning. According to the Commerce Department, the volume sales rose up by 0.6% in July. The messages about the jobless claims were less optimistic - 274 thousand when it was expected 270 thousand, still it slightly disappointed traders. The pair EUR/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the long positions profit taking after the week uptrend. Investors focused their attention on the Euro zone GDP and its leading countries preliminary data. The forecasts assumed that the main economic indicator will grow by 0.4% q/q and 1.3% y/y after a 0.4% m/m, 1.0% y/y in the first quarter. By the end of the day the sterling slightly increased. Earlier the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the "black gold" market sales. The British currency is traditionally very sensitive to the Brent oil quotations changes. The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the global equity markets correction which put pressure on the "safe haven" yen. Nevertheless, the pair showed a decrease by the end of the day. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Investors' attention is drawn to the euro zone second quarter GDP publication. The Germany economic growth accelerated amid the exports’ increase, but the France GDP remained in the flat, such differences pose a threat to the sustainable recovery prospects. The German GDP rose up by 0.4% compared with the previous quarter, the forecast was 0.5% and its growth amounted to 1.8% in annual terms. The German economy rose up by 0.3% q/q in the first quarter. The corrective weakness, formed by the resistance level of 1.1150, has reversed upwards. The signal for the reversal was the resistance level of 1.1150 retesting. The trades closed below this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is cosolidating. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.1150 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1260, further then towards 1.1420. Pound (GBP) General overview At the end of the day the US and the UK 10 years government bond yields reached the maximum level the last trading week which is a "bearish" factor for the British currency. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week report will show the total “pure” position dramatic decrease for the pound sales. A little before reaching the resistance level of 1.5670, the pound upward trend was reversed for the short-term correction. After a short-term consolidation the pair grew again. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The US and Japan government bond yields are increasing that is a "bullish" factor for the dollar as it increases the US assets attractiveness for institutional investors. The world leading stock exchanges capital inflow forces traders to increase the carry trade operations through the Japanese yen as a funding currency. In this context, the yen will be under pressure that will have positive impact on the US dollar. The upward trend within the Japanese yen was sharply reversed downwards, breaking through on its way the strong support level of 124.30. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing a role of the resistance level. There was a continuous consolidation formed below this level. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 122.40 testing soon. The level of 122.40 may lead to the price consolidation. Franc (CHF) General overview It was expected that the US statistics would show the all published indicators positive dynamics. The July producer price index (PPI) was supposed to show a slowdown, still with the month growth by + 0.1% m/m after a 0.4% m/m in June, the industrial production release in the same month was expected with increase by 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in June and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary index was expected with an increase over the August last period to the level of 94.0 from the previous level of 93.3. The US dollar consolidated in the pair with the Swiss franc after its decline to the support near 0.9750. Earlier the pair rebounded from the resistance level of 0.9850. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 0.9750. After fixing below the first target, the level 0.9650 will become the next one. The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 14.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar got under strong pressure on its main opponents’ part this week it had fallen against the euro, the pound and the yen. The reason was the optimism decline about the US rapid rate hike amid the Chinese yuan decline that continued to fall after its devaluation. The pair EUR/USD raised slightly amid the European stock exchanges sales. Investors closed their long positions on the equity markets and transferred it to the bond market which supported demand for the euro. After a decrease the pair grew by the end of the trades. By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the oil prices stabilization. The US Energy Department has reported the crude oil reserves reduction for the third consecutive week that contributed to the Brent brand consolidation. After an increase the pound also consolidated. The rapidly growing opinions about the US rapid rate hike illusory prospects drove down the pair dollar / yen. The Japanese currency strengthened in the last session against the US dollar. However, the US dollar was able to neutralize some of the losses by the end of the trades with the changes support in the US government debt market where the "Treasuries" prices declined slightly after the initial growth. However, the pair closed the yesterday’s trades closed with the pair’s decrease. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview According to the July final report the consumer price index increased by 0.2%. A month earlier the index value has decreased by 0.1%. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecast. The France consumer price index decreased by 0.4% in July compared with the previous month after a decline by 0.1% a month earlier. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecasts. According to the forecasts, the US jobless claims had to remain unchanged and fix 270 thousand claims. The data came out at the level of 274 thousand. The upward trend reversed towards the correction. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. The pair fell below the support level of 1.1150, but then it increased again. The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260. Pound (GBP) General overview The «UK housing prices balance indicator by RICS» rose more than expected for the last month. According to the report prepared by the British Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the indicator (given to the seasonal fluctuations) was 44% compared with 40% the previous month. Experts expected the rate growth for the last month to 42%. The United States provided the retail sales important data in July and the number of initial jobless claims. The retail sales data in July increased by 0,6% and the initial jobless claims came out less by 4 000 the forecasted median. Buyers have broken through and consolidated above the level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes, but it opened the way for the resistance level of 1.5670. Then the pair rebounded downwards and formed a consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 1.5670, 1.5775. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japan economic showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 7.9% m/m in June while the strongest decline was forecasted - by 6.5% m/m. However, it did not affect the market. We did not expect the US retail sales publication better than the consensus forecast. The initial jobless claims report was expected unchanged at the level of 270K. The release showed 274K. The pair USD/JPY is showing a technical recovery from the minimum when the dollar turned downwards and fell against other major currencies. However, the trades are below the key resistance of 125.50. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 125.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 123.50 and 122.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar index has fallen amid the Treasury bond yields sharp decline in connection with speculations, concerning the China measures on the yuan devaluation decline that will lead to the «deflation exports" that will force the Fed to postpone interest rates increase at least until December. According to the data, the Switzerland import and producer price index weakened by -0.1% m/m in June to -0.3% m/m in July and from -6.1% y/y to -6.4% y/y. Investors focused their attention on the jobless claims report which is expected to reach the level of 270,000 but the data showed a growth to 274,000. The continued price consolidation below the resistance level of 0.9850 was followed by an active decline by more than 200 points. The prices declined to the support near 0.9750. then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through this level upwards. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 0.9540 may lead to a price rebound upwards. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
Dear traders! We are happy to announce that international regulated broker Fort Financial Services and AS Expo Bank (the oldest bank in Latvia, Europe) made agreement that starting from 12 August 2015: All deposits and withdrawals via bank transfers are free for our clients! *Founded in 1991, AS Expobank (the Bank) is one of the oldest banks in Latvia 2011-Deutsche Bank’s 2010 USD Straight-Through Processing (STP) Excellence Award. 2010- Deutsche Bank for the exceptional quality of USD and EUR payment messages 2009- „Deutsche Bank‘s 2009 Straight – Through Processing (STP) Excellence Award”. Happy trading!
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"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 13.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The China Central Bank's decision was the main event that devalued the yuan. The US currency strengthened against all the major opponents in the light of this, still it was not able to keep the leading position. The message that Greeks have reached an agreement with creditors and will receive assistance in the framework of the regular lending program caused European majors quite full-scale purchases which led to the US dollar decline against the euro to the end of the session and in the dispute with the pound. The China’s decision to devalue the yuan has put pressure on the pound as it was considered it would be able to strengthen the disinflation pressure in the UK and to extend the low inflation period in the United Kingdom which leads to the raising rates transfer at a later date. The measures taken by China have put pressure on the Japanese currency as well. Another reason to sell the yen was the Japan Prime Minister advisors E. Honda’s statements who said that if the expected GDP data pointed to the sharp decline in the second quarter there would be a need to deploy a new fiscal stimulus. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview According to the Bank of France, the France payments balance current account surplus has grown for June due to the foreign trade deficit reduction. The payments balance current account surplus amounted to 1 billion euro against 200 million euro in May. The trade deficit fell to 1 billion euro from 1.7 billion euro in June. The euro managed to break through above the key resistance level of 1.1050. Due to this resistance breakthrough, buyers got the way to the strong resistance level of 1.1150 that was also broken. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450. Pound (GBP) General overview Taking into account bonuses, the UK average wage fell to 2.4% in June against the earlier 3.2%, but it was expected a decline to 2.8%. The number of jobless claims further declined than expected: -4.9K vs. 1.5K. The debate figure was revised downwards from 7.0K to 0.2K. The unemployment rate has not changed and confirmed the forecasts - 5.6%. Buyers corrected the price to the level of 1.5610 on the low volumes. It was expected the given level testing but bulls did not test it. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates above the resistance 1.5670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5775 and 1.5950. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japan monetary policy meeting minutes were published in the Asian session on Tuesday. We received the industrial production positive results, the industrial production volume increased to 1.1% m/m which is higher than the growth expectations up to 0.8%. The service sector business activity index came out better than expected: 0.3% m/m against the growth expectations up to 0.1% m/m while the index was -0.7% m/m last month. The price consolidated above the support level of 124.30. However the pair fell below this level amid the weakened dollar. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing the role of a strong resistance. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 123.50. the next target is the level of 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 12.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The week beginning was not successful for the US dollar. The US dollar fell against GBP and EUR, still it recorded quite insignificant "profit" against JPY. There was published the US economy important statistics and, probably, the US dollar decline can be related to the technical factors as well as to the grown doubts that the Fed will begin the policy tightening next month. The euro sharp rise helped the deputy chairman S. Fisher comments. He said that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September while it is low inflation. The US Federal Reserve representative D. Lockhart also mentioned in his speech about the low inflation. In response to these statements the dollar sharply fell down along the whole fronts. The pair EUR/USD and the pair GBP/USD have increased. Only the pair USD/JPY showed the dollar’s growth. The fact is that the market considered the possibility of the Fed September rate hike almost as a settled issue. Now, when Lockhart excluded the word "September" from his rhetoric, the event no longer looks so certain. It is likely that the Friday's Fed data also influenced it. In any case, it would mean at least the dollar temporary weakening against most of its competitors. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The difference between the ECB and the Fed policy directions remains the main medium-term driver for the pair. The July Italy CPI was published which was expected to 0.2 y/y and -0.1 m/m. In fact, the data has not changed, confirming the traders’ forecasts. The ZEW Institute German current economic environment index was in the center of our attention. In August, the figure is expected to reach 64.5 against 63.9. In fact the data came out at the level of 65.7. It is noted the resistance level of 1.1050 to be tested. The bulls failed to break it. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150. Pound (GBP) General overview According to the BRC, the UK retail sales in the same stores fell by 1.2% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y in July. It was expected a decline by 1.0%. The UK average wage reports for June are of great interest as well as July jobless claims number changes for July. The news output is expected on Wednesday. It was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough within the pair GBP/USD. The pair is consolidating. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese economic data showed positive changes in the money supply – the M2 aggregate in July increased to 4.1% y/y vs. 3.9% y/y in June and the M3 aggregate rose up to 3.3% y/y from 3.2% y/y. The equipment orders dynamics was less encouraging – it was recorded 1.6% y/y in July against 6.6 y/y in the previous period. It is noted the pair USD/JPY growth after the rebound from the support level of 124.30. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations After the resistance level of 125.50 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 127.00 will be opened. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 11.08.2015 Fundamental analysis Last week the foreign exchange market trades were under the wait and see positions’ influence that investors have taken on the eve of the July US employment release, hoping to get fresh guidance concerning the rate increases time. The June and May Non-Farms were revised for an increase, in general by 14 thousand and apparently, it strengthened confidence that the Fed short-term interest rates would be raised in September and caused the dollar full-scale purchases explosion. However, the "bulls" triumph was not long, very soon the US dollar came under pressure. At the beginning of the new week it was not able to maintain its achievements against the pound besides earlier the pair pound/dollar fell amid the UK negative data. The euro remained on the "float" in the dispute with the US dollar despite the weak statistics that came from the EU leading economies. The euro negative activity amid the US data was short-term and soon the euro returned all its losses, ending the day with a profit. After the side consolidation the pair USD/JPY rose on the US reports, but soon it fell down. Obviously, the change of mood within this pair has been provoked by the events in the US debt market where the "treasuries" profitability has fallen sharply after the employment report publication. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview According to the Bank of France forecasts, the country economic growth will increase slightly in the third quarter. According to the Bank of France companies’ activity survey in July, the French 3rd quarter GDP will increase by 0.3% compared to the 2nd quarter. The Bank of France previous survey pointed out that the GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was 0.2%. The Bank of France said that the manufacturing sector and the service sector business sentiment remained unchanged compared to June. There was the strong resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough upwards on the pair EUR/USD. Then the pair increased and the resistance level of 1.1050 was broken through. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150. Pound (GBP) General overview The first day of the week has passed in the absence of any important statistics. The market reacted only on the Federal Open Market Committee members Fisher and Lockhart speeches. Both members support the early rate hike at least twice before the end of the year. So it was expected quite harsh rhetoric. Investors are waiting for the UK labor market indicators which are scheduled for Wednesday. The pair GBP/USD is consolidating above the strong support level of 1.5460. then the pair broke through the resistance level of 1.5550. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations When the price consolidates it may go downwards. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5550 and 1.5460. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen fell against the dollar after the macroeconomic statistics publication. The foreign economic activity results marked the surplus emergence in the June trade balance - +102.7 billion yen against the earlier 47.3 billion yen, but the current account balances reduction to 588 billion yen after 1880.9 billion yen in May. There was the upward trend breakthrough within the pair USD/JPY. There is a short-term correction near the level of 124.50 that is playing the role of a resistance. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 125.50 first after a consolidation. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 127.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 10.08.2015 Fundamental analysis At the end of the last week the markets tended to consolidate ahead of the Friday’s US key data output, including the labor market report. As a result, the dollar fell slightly against the EUR and JPY and in dispute with the British pound it recorded a certain "profit". The US Labor Department reported that the US economy added 215,000 jobs last month, instead of the expected 223000. There was created 231,000 jobs in June and the figures were revised from 223,000. Among the pairs that demonstrated the maximum volatility we should identify only the pair GBP/USD where the US dollar was supported by the information indicating a certain extent of the British regulator monetary policy prospects. Last week the Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5%, the fund bond purchases volume also was not changed, leaving it in the amount of 375 billion pounds and has signaled that it is still preparing to start raising interest rates, but only at the beginning of next year. As a result, the pair GBP/USD has declined more than 100 points downwards. There were published the BoJ meeting results- the Japanese regulator has not changed its monetary policy parameters. The market reacted to this information rather quiet and the pair USD/JPY continued to form the side trend. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with a decrease. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro remained within the side trend and slightly declined against the US dollar. The main decline was after the weak German industrial production and the trade balance figures publication. The Germany industrial volume fell by 1.4% in June. The market had expected a growth by 0.3%. While the country trade surplus unexpectedly fell against the expected growth. Earlier the US dollar was supported by the initial jobless claims data which rose to 270K. The forecast median was 273K. The short-term correction within the euro was formed that is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.0925. Then the pair broke this level upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 will be opened. Pound (GBP) General overview Last week the British pound fell sharply against the US dollar after investors learned that the Bank of England was planning to increase its key interest rate only in 2016. The pound has not changed its position after the UK trade deficit publication which increased to 9.18 billion pounds in June from 8.42 billion pounds in May. The markets remain cautious ahead of the July US employment official report that suggested an increase by 223,000. The release showed a growth by 215,000. Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.5550, the level breakthrough was followed by increased volumes. Then there was a small price correction to the resistance level of 1.5550. Nevertheless, this movement was short-term and the pair tested the support level of 1.5460. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks of 1.5390 and 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar grew against the yen before the US employment report publication. On Friday the Bank of Japan did not change the policy and kept the expensive stimulus program. The market had expected such a result, so its reaction was weak. Meanwhile, analysts suggest that the number of jobs grew by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 %. In fact the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 % and the number of jobs grew by 215,000. Having broken through the resistance level of 124.30 upwards, the upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped. Little consolidation below the level led to the downward correction. The pair closed the trades below the level of 124.30. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50, further then towards 127.00. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc has fallen against the US dollar. According to the data, the Switzerland unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.1% which coincided with the forecasts. Investors' attention was directed to the last week critical report and to the US labor market data. Analysts suggested that the number of jobs increased by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the minimum level of 5.3% since April 2008. According to the published release the unemployment rate came out at the forecasted median and the number of jobs increased by 223,000. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 07.08.2015 Fundamental analysis This week the currency spent most of the trades in a lull. It is not surprising as we are approaching the end of the week where we expect the most significant releases and during the previous days traders just saved their strength. The pair EUR/USD has recovered, responding to the US ADP data that did not meet their expectations. It turned out that it was created only 185 thousand jobs in the US private sector against the expected 215 thousand in July and 229 thousand in June. It undermined confidence in the dollar, especially in anticipation of the more labor market publication that is the NFP report. After all, if the employment level is unsatisfactory, it can erase all expectations about the possible Fed rate hike. As a result, the dollar faced a sales wave against most rivals, but not for a long time. Shortly after the ADP report there was published the ISM US services sector activity index which in July rose up to 60.3 from the June's 56.0. It was quite enough to initiate the US dollar recovery against its major rivals. However, the dollar failed to maintain the leadership and strengthened only against the pound by the end of the day. The Bank of England released its quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy last meeting minutes and delivered the current rate verdict. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 3 thousand having reached to 270 thousand. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The Germany industrial orders rose up by 2.0% m/m and 7.2% y/y. The German industry rapid growth is connected with the cheap euro and also with the European continuing producer prices decline, though it does not eliminate the deflation threat. The corrective rebound was formed which allowed buyers to test the resistance of 1.0925. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790. Pound (GBP) General overview The Bank of England has published the quarterly inflation forecast and the last monetary policy meeting minutes, our expectations lie in the fact that two committee members voted for a rate hike. Also the Bank of England governor Mark Carney made his speech. Later NIESR released the UK GDP forecast for July. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. For a long time the price has been consolidating in the side corridor levels: 1.5670 - 1.5550. The resistance level of 1.5670 was repeatedly tested for durability, but without a subsequent breakthrough. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through. The price fixated under this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5460, 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The US private sector new jobs insignificant increase data have supported the yen for a short time. However, the reports about the world largest non-manufacturing sector activity growth not only returned the pair to their original positions, but also raised it up to the new intraday high. The long price consolidation below the resistance level of 124.30 was followed by a breakthrough. The breakthrough was on the high volume, it is highly probable the uptrend continuation. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 125.50, 127.00. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar maintained its optimism against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after the US non-manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly strong data. The ISM non-manufacturing sector activity index was 60.3 vs. 56.2 pp in July. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 06.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The market trades are rather sluggish in anticipation of new movement catalysts. The dollar keeps the overall positive mood ahead of the coming Friday labor market publication which may be defined in terms of the US interest rates timing and thus the US currency prospects. The US currency was supported by the Federal Reserve System representative statement. The Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank may raise short-term interest rates next month. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came lower than expected 215 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 185 thousand. The euro fell amid the increased demand for the dollar. Greece reported that it planned to sign the bailout agreement until 18 August. Greece will carry out a regular payment to the ECB on 20 August and the same deadline for the third tranche agreement signing. The pair is trading in a flat after a decrease. Earlier the pound fell amid the renewed speculation that the Fed can be tempted to increase the key rate in September. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades. The pair USD/JPY has updated the highs and continues to maintain an optimistic tone with the overall demand for the dollar. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro fell amid the US dollar in the run-up to the US government Friday's employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong that may lead to move the Federal Reserve interest rates hike forecasts at an earlier date. The euro two-week rise against the US dollar has stopped and we can observe the support of 1.0925 breakthrough. Then the pair formed a consolidation and tested this level which is the resistance now. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.0925 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is e the support level of 1.0790. Pound (GBP) General overview The latest publication showed the UK construction sector slowdown. The business activity index in the sector fell to 57.1 in July whereas it previously set the four-month high at the level of 58.1. Analysts expected the growth rate to 58.5. The British pound corrective growth, formed at the level of 1.5460 gave a signal for the downward rebound. The signal served the support level of 1.5550 testing. However the pair rebounded upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We may expect the growth towards 1.5670 further on we expect a fall to 1.5550, 1.5460. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar showed growth on the increased expectations that in the context of the US economy improvements the Fed will resort to the interest rates increase in the coming months, possibly as early as September. The correction was short after the resistance level of 124.30 retesting. Before reaching the support level of 123.50, buyers have reversed the formed correction up to the resistance level of 124.30 and broke it upwards. The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We expect the 125.50 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 127.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 05.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The beginning of the current week was relatively calm in the currency market. The dollar continued to strengthen against the major competitors, continuing to enjoy the support by the Fed rate hike expectations. However the dollar slightly weakened on the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the pair EUR/USD once again came under pressure, at the same time there was not any problem with the local growth drivers. The July PMI manufacturing activity index in the euro zone countries was mostly positive while the region index exceeded expectations and amounted to 52.4 against the expected 52.2. But it was not enough to strengthen the single European currency. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased on Tuesday. Earlier the dollar got a new reason to grow. The personal spending rose in June more than expected, reflecting a growth by 0.4% against the forecast at the level of 0.3%. At a time when traders are almost convinced in the Fed rates raising until the end of the year, it was enough to trigger a purchases wave. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a growth and the pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro fell amid the dollar growth in anticipation of the Friday US government employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong and it may lead to move the forecasts, relating the interest rates growth by the Federal Reserve at an earlier date. However the pair slightly grew on Tuesday’s trades. The trade within the pair euro/dollar looks lowly volatile. The price reduction is on the lower volumes and reached the strong support level of 1.0925. Then the pair rebounded upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925 and 1.0790. Pound (GBP) General overview The Bank of England will announce its key interest rate decision on Thursday, the 6th of August and at the same time it will publish the meeting minute. Undoubtedly, the regulator tendency to increase the key rate will put upward pressure on the pair GBP/USD. We can observe the pound decline against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and low volumes reduction. The price decline was close the strong support level of 1.5550. Then the pair showed an upward rebound. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5775. Yen (JPY) General overview The main driving force that influenced the dollar growth was the personal income and spending data which rose by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while revenues have grown more than it was forecasted. The Americans incomes grow more than expenditures that indicates the consumption slowdown. This trend threatens the fact that inflation may remain low and investors wait for the Fed rate hikes. Nevertheless, investors regarded revenue growth as a signal for the consumption and inflation future growth. The resistance level of 124.30 re-testing led to the upward trend reversal downwards then a consolidation was formed. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 124.30 for a steady growth. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 04.08.2015 Fundamental analysis This week the US dollar is being traded without significant changes in anticipation of important macroeconomic statistics. Investors are waiting for the US labor market Friday's data. The labor costs record low index in the second quarter raised questions about the Fed key rate hike in September. Thus, the US labor costs index showed the lowest growth rate in the second quarter at the level of 0.2% well below the forecast by 0.7%. Previously, the dollar was supported by the Federal Reserve two-day meeting. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than it was expected when it came to the Fed rate hike timing. In addition, we expect the euro zone important data. Economists expect the official data that will be published next will point to the Germany manufacturing industry growth production, but its slowdown in France and Italy that shows divergence in the euro area economy. However the data in Italy came out showed a growth to 55,3 from 54,1. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decreased. The pair GBP/USD also decreased. Earlier the pound traded without significant changes in BoE's meeting anticipation on the coming Thursday. At the same time for the first time the central bank will announce the interest rates decision and will publish its meeting minutes and the UK economy new forecasts. The yen declined against the dollar amid the general demand for the US currency and the interest decrease in safe assets because of the stock indices strengthening. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro was supported by the euro zone consumer inflation strong indicators. Thus, the EU consumer prices rose up by 0.2% y/y in July while the core index showed an increase by 0.9% y/y against the expected 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at the mark of 11.1%. Buyers tried to continue the upward trend, but they were stopped by the resistance near 1.1050. The level testing was followed by an active rebound downwards on the increased volume. The rebound from the level of 1.1050 has allowed customers to consolidate below this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0790, 1.0670. Pound (GBP) General overview The data publication has shown that approved applications for mortgage and consumer loans totaled 66.58K and £ 1.22 billion respectively. The course has received previous support after the UK economy growth strong preliminary estimates. The second quarter data supported the trend set in the first quarter. So the UK economy showed a growth by 2.6% y/y and 0.7% q/q vs. 2.9% and 0.4% respectively in the previous quarter. The resistance level of 1.5670 was tested for its strength last week. The false level testing was followed by the rebounds downwards. At the beginning of this level the pair decreased. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.5550 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5670. Yen (JPY) General overview The statistics in Japan showed that the retail sales have fallen for the third time this year -by 0.8% in June after the January and March decline. Analysts had forecasted decrease on average by 0.9%. The consumer spending weakness increases the risks for the Japanese economy, the manufacturing sector is experiencing hard times, taking into the exports weakness. The upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped for a short time at the resistance level of 124.30. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 124.30, 125.50. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. -
"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF replied to ValdisTF's topic in Technical Analysis
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 03.08.2015 Fundamental analysis The US currency continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.60. The pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the Germany and Spain inflation slowdown last Friday. During the day the pair GBP / USD was trading in a flat amid the UK bond yields moderate growth relative to its US and Germany counterparts. The pair USD / JPY increased amid the "risky assets" demand at the end of the last week. The last week US second quarter GDP data came out slightly worse than the consensus forecast, but we can consider it moderately positive. The personal consumption expenditures main index for the second quarter increased by 1.8% which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The Fed uses namely this indicator as the consumer activity benchmark. In general, the US dollar continues to behave as if the Fed’s rate hike is actually a solution. We should remind that the Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview We expect bearish sentiment prevalence within the pair EUR/USD. The Germany retail sales have decreased by 2.3% from May till June, corrected for the inflation and seasonal variations, still they increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year. Economists had forecasted that the monthly value would remain within the flat. However, the retail sales positive trend remains the same, private consumption will continue to support the European largest economy growth. It is expected that the German economy will expand by 1.8% this year and 2.0% in 2016. A short-term correction was formed. The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1050. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price gets below the Cloud we get a strong sell signal. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining. Trading recommendations We expect the decrease will be continued. The first target is 1.0925. The second one is 1.0790. Pound (GBP) General overview During the day the British pound can show the quotations moderate growth. There was the UK securities bond market increase in relation to its US and Germany competitors. The UK and Germany bond yields once again exceeded the level of 131 bp which will put pressure on the pair EUR / GBP and support demand for the British currency against the US dollar. According to the economic calendar, the UK Gfk consumer confidence index has fallen: 4 instead of 7, although it was expected 5. For a long time the British pound has been trading below the strong resistance level of 1.5670. All attempts to break through above the level were followed by the prices rebound downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The first resistance is at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775. The price is just above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar was stable against the yen. Earlier the Japan data showed that household spending declined by 3.0% in June, confounding the projected decline by 0.5%, after the previous month increase by 2.4%. The data also showed that the Tokyo consumer price index rose up by 0.2% this month in line with the market expectations. The maximum of 124.47 was updated, but bulls failed to consolidate above the level of 124.30 – there was a false breakthrough which led to the downward rebound. The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing. Trading recommendations The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70. Shall the price fall it will go to 122.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The market is consolidating. Some optimism inspires more or less clear picture in the United States. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing. The US second quarter GDP data showed an increase by 2.3% q / q vs. 2.5% q / q. The separate report showed that initial jobless claims amounted to 267k vs. 270k. The pair USD / CHF tested the level of 0.9700 / 10, then the correction has started and currently the pair is under pressure. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing. Trading recommendations We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.