ValdisTF

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 18.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The market was quite volatile last Friday, still in general it tends to the dollar strengthening. The heterogeneous movement was mainly due to the stock and commodity markets instability. Besides the market sentiments, the currency dynamics was influenced by the European and the UK Central Banks while the macro data remained practically unnoticed. The German 2015 GDP is encouraging. The GDP growth was 1.7% due to the personal consumption, the government spending and the investment growth. The positive data have helped to reduce the yields differential on the US and Germany government bonds. The Eurozone published the November trade balance. The data came in at the level 23,6B. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar decreased. The debt market reacted to the British monetary authorities statements by the government bonds yields lowering in relation to its US and Germany counterparts. That fact, of course, reduces the investments attractiveness to the British assets. The Bank of England posted the Credit Conditions Survey. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades. The demand for risky assets keeps growing which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. One of the last Friday key events was the USA retail sales report (-0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%) where the producer prices (on the forecasted level of 0,2%) and the Michigan University consumer confidence index (93,3 against the forecasted 93,0) were announced. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease. Technical analysis Euro General overview The ECB published the December meeting minutes which wore a rather "soft" character. The regulator pointed to the inflation downside risks. Some of the Bank representatives think that the regulator can cut the rate by 20 basis points, while the other part of the voting members is against the rate easing by more than 10 basis points. The pair limited reaction to the published minutes indicates the monetary authorities’ ambiguity who apparently chose a waiting policy. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.1150. Pound General overview The GBP / USD showed no noticeable reaction to the Bank of England verdict, as the expectations regarding the meeting outcome were unanimous. The regulator confirmed its forecasts, leaving the current monetary policy course unchanged. The rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase program amounts 375 billion. The votes’ layout has remained the same - 8 to 1. The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4240 and 1.4160 soon. Yen General overview It is impossible to ignore the debt market dynamics: the US and Japanese government bonds differential profitability has been decreasing for four consecutive trading days. This tendency increases the Japanese yen as an investment asset supporting the demand for the yen. The first support resides at 116.20, the next is at 115.40. The first resistance stands at 117.00, the next one is at 117.80. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 116.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 115.40. Franc General overview According to the Fed's representative Bullard the Fed did not think about the further rates raising in January. At the same time, he believes the interest rate remains challenging despite the Fed's policy normalization. The dollar is very sensitive to the national policy now. The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190. The indicator shows a weak and confirmed buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and in above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target – 0.9960. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 15.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar showed mixed dynamics with its major opponents. Once again, the stock market set the tone of trading. The American benchmarks were under pressure, the oil went below $30 per barrel, and the safe assets partially recovered. The German 2015 GDP was published. The GDP showed a growth rate of 1,72% in the first three quarters of last year. The German economy leading indicators, such as the manufacturing and non-production sphere PMI, as well as the IFO index pointed to the fact that the growth rate significantly accelerated in the fourth quarter. The data came out at the level of 1,7% against the forecasted 1,6%. However by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased. The Bank of England minutes publication was the main event of the day. The UK interest rates remained at the same level. The weak economic data together with the oil prices decline added headache to Mark Carney and his colleagues. Now no one talks about a possible interest rates increase. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed a slight growth. The China stock market downtrend pressured the Asian, Europe and North America stock markets. The United States trades were also under bears’ control: the high-tech sector showed the largest decline. The carry trade positionsсlosing contributed to the demand for the yen as a funding currency. Nevertheless by the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY increased. Technical analysis Euro General overview . Traders resumed the euro buying amid the US stock indices negative dynamics and a new wave of oil prices fall when the Energy Ministry report pointed to the oil reserves growth in the US stores. The ECB released its latest meeting minutes. According to the December European Central Bank minutes release the inflation outlook has been deteriorated again. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing Trading recommendations We expect the 1.0800 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0730 Pound General overview . The Bank of England's monetary policy decision was the main event of the day. The market did not expect any changes from the regulator, although the regulator’s comments regarding the country economy and the monetary policy prospects revived the pair GBPUSD movement. The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We believe the consolidation at the level of 1.4400 will be continued now. Yen General overview The United States and Japanese government bond yield differential has been declining increasing the investment attractiveness of the Japanese assets, thus supporting the yen. The US initial jobless claims release has been published, traders expected 278.000 against the previous 277.000, in fact the data came in at the level 284.000. The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 118.40 and 119.20. Franc General overview The December Import Price Index was published in the US: the forecast was -1,4% m/m vs. the previous data – 0,5% m/m. The data came in at the level 1,2% m/m. The dollar has lost its past achievements after the Fed’s Beige Book publication. According to the report the weak wage growth pressure as well as the general price pressure is minimal. The report generated some speculations that the Fed would not rush to increase the interest rates in such circumstances. The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190. The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and in above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 14.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The stock indexes are still the main drivers to the Forex currencies and we believe they will keep influencing the market till the end of the week, especially when the economic calendar is not full with important events. The Eurostat published the Eurozone industrial production report. Leading indicators are showing mixed background. On the one hand, the Manufacturing PMI positive dynamics makes us think that the data output will be bit better than the forecast. On the other hand, the November Germany and France industrial production recorded a decrease which is a negative scenario signal. The data came in at the level of -0,7%(m/m) and 1,1% (y/y) against the forecasted -0,3% (m/m) and 1,3% (y/y). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth. The British corporations suffer from weak external demand and a sterling high exchange rate against the euro. We do not expect strong data taking into account the factory orders reduction and the December Manufacturing PMI decline. We note a fourth quarter manufacturing sector negative trend. Investors are beginning to lay in the quotes most pessimistic expectations about the fourth quarter UK GDP. The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat. The carry trade deals closure has traditionally been a positive factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency Forex. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades. Technical analysis Euro General overview The secondary USA releases had a minor influence on the quotations dynamics. The economic optimism index showed a growth, but fell short of the expected value, having amounted 47.3 vs. expected – 47.6. Meanwhile, the business confidence indicator came in at the level of 95.2 against the expectations at 95.4. The traders' attention was drawn to the Eurozone industrial production report which is expected to decline in monthly terms. The data came in worse then forecasted median. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon. Pound General overview . The weak productive sector suggests that the Bank of England will not raise the rates this year. Shall the Bank of England publish the negative comments on its Thursday meeting, the pound may fall under a new wave of sales. The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 1.4400 and 1.4320. Yen General overview The yen strengthened a bit amid the quite favorable macroeconomic statistics. In December, the consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 against the expected 42.3. Meanwhile, the Eco Watchers Survey rose to 48.7 from 46.1. However, the yen failed to hold its positions in a fading of interest in risk-free assets against the background of the stock market recovery. Only by the end of the trades the yen returned the leadership. The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We may expect the consolidating between the levels of 118.40 and 117.80. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 13.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The greenback received some support from the USA strong Friday's report where the employment rate rose much more than expected. In addition, the December labor market conditions index has improved to 2.9 vs. expected value of 0.0. The Conference Board employment trends index rose to 129.3 from the previous 128.3. This labor market picture could prompt the Fed to raise the rates earlier if the country inflation accelerates. The China was again in the center of attention when its stock market fell more than 4%. As a result the euro was in demand as a funding currency. On the other hand, the “black gold” sales caused the German government bonds yield decline, causing the United States bond yield differential expansion. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease. The UK industrial production report could not please the market with positive data: -0.7% m/m 0.9% y/y. The November production sector PMI lost 2.7 bp. The pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades. One could see a moderate USD/JPY growth due to Japanese negative payments balance: the balance figures fell to 1.42 trillion yen from 1.49 trillion yen. There was a capital inflows decrease into Japanese securities and imports growth to a trade balance. The BoJ has lost 11.2 billion dollars in the second month of the fourth quarter which is also a negative factor for its economy. The consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 in December. The pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat. Technical analysis Euro General overview The improved European investors’ sentiment, the widespread dollar strengthening, as well as unfavorable economic reports helped the euro to weaken. The January Sentix investor confidence index surfaced a drop from 9.6 to 15.7 against the expected value of 12.2. In general, the euro position remains fragile in light of the ECB and the Fed policies divergence, as well the US and the Eurozone different statistics. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go downward to the support levels of 1.0800 and 1.0730. Pound General overview The "black gold" quotations collapsed at the beginning of the week which is a positive factor for the US currency as the commodities price is denominated in dollars. The Brent bears are inclined to test the psychological level of 30. This is a negative factor for the Sterling. The 10-year UK government bonds yield reduced relative to their US and the Eurozone counterparts. The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560. Yen General overview . Investors still avoid the "risky assets". This factor is a positive one for the yen as a funding currency. The Japanese Government expressed its strong concerns about the Chinese economy slowdown and about the external risk factors, noting that the country economy keeps growing, despite the China problems. The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The flat trading will be continued at the level of 117.80. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 12.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The US dollar again showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals, having shown weakening against the yen the sixth day in a row. In general, there was an attempt to restore the US currency positions amid the global markets improved sentiment. Last week the Chinese government decided not to suspend trading anymore that helped stock indexes to recover. This fact played into the dollar hands against the euro, still the pair loss appeared to be symbolic. At the same time unexpectedly strong USA employment report has not given to a greenback a substantial support. The low inflation expectations, combined with the Chinese problems can make FOMC refrain from monetary policy tightening at the meeting on 27th of January, which will deprive the US dollar strong support. Yesterday the trading was defined by risk appetite amid lack of macroeconomic statistics. After a slight correction growth the pair euro/dollar decreased. The British pound finished last week in the "red zone", still the smooth sterling devaluation is a positive factor for the United Kingdom economy. The UK trade balance release again points to the “strong pound” negative effect: the deficit amounted to 10.64 billion pounds in November which is by 1.08% more than in the same period in 2014. The pair pound/dollar decreased on Monday. The major stock indices in Asia, Europe and North America lost more than 6% at the end of last week. The trend is in favor of the Japanese yen in the credit market: the yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds is decreasing that may attract investment to the US assets. The pair dollar/yen showed a decrease. Technical analysis Euro General overview The weak Germany data pressured the euro. In particular, the Germany industrial production fell by 0.3% in November despite the forecast of 0.5% y / y, while the trade surplus narrowed to 19.7 billion euros from the previous 20.5 billion. The price fell back down after the US labor market publication. However, there was just a short-term dollar strengthening despite the unexpectedly high index results. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 1.0925, 1.1050. If the price falls it will get to 1.0800 and 1.0730. Pound General overview The pair GBP/USD continues to move towards the south. In addition to the fundamental factors (the Bank of England and the United States monetary policy difference), and the potential United Kingdom exit from the EU the UK statistics disappointed the market –merchandise trade deficit narrowed in November and fell short of the forecast, amounting to -10.640 billion, against the expected -10.500 billion. The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.4630, 1.4700. Yen General overview The price resumed its decline amid the Chinese economic prospects continue pressuring the stock markets, the yen acts as a refuge currency in this case. The USA published the labor market conditions index: 2,9 against the forecasted 0,0. The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 117.00 and 116.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 11.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The Chinese market collapse for more than 7%, the Chinese stock exchanges trading suspension, cheap oil – all these factors supported the euro and the yen. The dollar experienced difficulties with a growth amid the global markets negative sentiment, the Fed soft minutes as well as the weak labor market data. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came higher than expected 200 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 295 thousand. The struggle between the major competitors, the euro and the dollar, is continued. We believe that the euro current growth looks more like a temporary correction while the dollar remains on a horse. The pair received almost no support from the macroeconomic data which had the mixed background. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar increased. The pound was the main outsider among the main currencies. The Cable has recently been quite sensitive to the oil prices drop which has fallen to 11-year lows. The Sterling slightly corrected after the weak USA data, in general, the pair remains under strong pressure. The UK published the trade balance: -10,64B against the forecasted -10,50B. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease. At the same time Japan did not publish important reports. The dollar dynamics is the main driver for the yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply fell by the end of the trading day. Technical analysis Euro General overview The consumer sentiment improvement in most sectors of the regional economy has not been transformed into the consumer spending increase yet that is seen from the retail sales reports. The Germany published import (1,6% against the forecasted 1,0%), export (0,4% against the forecasted 0,7%), payment balance (19,7B against the forecasted 20,0B) and industrial production reports (-0,3% against the forecasted 0,5%). The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1050 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound General overview Besides to the divergence between the Bank of England and the Fed monetary policies the Sterling is under pressure amid some fears that the UK may exit the EU. The referendum is supposed to take place in the middle of 2016. While traders are speculating about the possible referendum consequences the pound remains in a state of free fall. In addition, the oil price decrease keeps pressuring the Cable. The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.4480 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4400 will be opened. Yen General overview The NFP report was last Friday main event. After a growth for 2012 thousand in November, the December NFP figure was expected to reach 200 thousand. However the relese came in at the level 292 thousand. The labor market state is one of the key benchmarks for the Fed in determining the monetary policy course. The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 117.00 and 116.20 soon. Franc General overview The dollar fell against the franc. Earlier the pair dollar/franc strengthened amid growing interest in dollar buying and the European shares recovery. The Chinese stock markets stabilized, European markets are recovering that reduces the demand for the safe assets, including the franc. The Switzerland unemployment rate rose to 3,7% from 3,4%, exceeding the forecast of 3,6%. The consumer prices fell in December by 1,3% y/y, after falling 1,4%. The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100. The price is in the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 08.01.2016 Fundamental analysis There was a quite volatile trading day yesterday. The dollar showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals. Traders still do not prefer to risk as they do have concerns to worry about. They are global economy slowdown, low oil price and the Chinese economy. Soft Fed meeting minutes weakened the US currency. The regulator expressed his concerns about the inflation, the strong dollar which triggered the greenback sales. The US published the initial jobless clams (277 000 against the forecasted 275 000). The euro got some support after the risky assets sales. However, the US strong labor market data gave new strength to the dollar. According to ADP, the December private sector employment level increased by 257 thousand. These figures are much higher than the forecast and the previous value of 192 thousand. However after the USA new statistics the pair euro/dollar strengthened. A series of weak economic data postpones the Bank of England rate hike which exacerbates the divergence rate of the BoE and the Fed. That is another long-term negative factor for the Sterling. The trades closed with the pair GBP/USD decrease. The USD/JPY accelerated its decline after the Fed meeting minutes’ publication. The price moved further down. The risk factor always plays into the Japanese yen hands. Technical analysis Euro General overview Traders received the Germany retail sales and factory orders data. The euro zone is to publish the labor market (the unemployment rate is 10,5% against the forecasted 10,7%), the consumer confidence (at the forecasted median -0,6), the retail sales (-0,3% against the forecasted median 0,2%), the economic sentiment (-2,0 against the forecasted median -3,0) reports. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050. Pound General overview The strong dollar does not leave the choice to the pound which has to develop the downward momentum. The EUR/GBP dynamics played the negative role for the Cable having grown within the day. The UK statistics continues to disappoint traders. The UK surfaced the house prices minor report that came in better then forecasted median 9,5%(y/y) and 1,7%(m/m). The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.4630 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4700. Yen General overview We believe that the raw materials low prices as well as the Chinese economy state shall keep the interest to the yen. Today the market will pay its attention to the USA Non-Farms. The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We may expect the flat trades at the level of 117.80. Franc General overview The Swiss franc rose against the dollar on the wave of the total US currency sales after the FOMC protocols publication. Meanwhile, the Fed's representative Fisher predicts that the rate will be increased by 4 times in 2016. He noted that the Fed currently has no information how many times the rate would be changed in 2016. However, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank raised its GDP growth forecast in Q4 on Wednesday. The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190. The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 07.01.2016 Fundamental analysis Investors keep buying the dollar. Trading volumes are higher than in the same days last year. The euro area employment data pleased traders. The Spain unemployed number decreased by 55.8 thousand. vs. expected of 52.6 thousand. The same index is 55.8 thousand in Germany. The forecast was 52.6 thousand. The pair euro/dollar showed a slight growth. The UK debt market is now set against the bulls: the 10-year UK government bonds yield is reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the Cable investments attractiveness. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased. Now investors are more alarmed of the Chinese economy state than six months ago, having started buying the dollar. China conducted a currency intervention at 19.9 billion dollars to support the yuan. The operation was a success - the dollar fell from 6.54 yuan to 6.52. As about the pair dollar/yen – it showed a slight decrease. The commodity currencies again suffered from the Chinese economy weak data releases. Australian and New Zealand dollars fell most of all. Technical analysis Euro General overview We noted the bearish sentiment prevalence. The weak November euro area inflation data contributed to the US and Germany government bonds growth reducing the investments attractiveness in European assets putting pressure on the single European currency. The trades were determined by the services ISM (55,3 against the forecasted median 56,0) and the US Energy Department releases (-5,085М against the forecasted median 0,439М). The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened. Pound General overview The published positive construction sector PMI was unable to provide strong support for the pound. That is a signal of the strong sellers presence. The Markit published the third report - this time we got the service sector data. This indicator has been showing the moderate growth for the last two months, however, if we want to see a strong demand for the pound the indicator final value should be higher than 56.6 n. The release came in at the level of 55,5 that put pressure on the pound. The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480. Yen General overview The lack of "risk appetite" among investors continues to contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The high-yield cross-rates have been showing weakness from the beginning of the trading week. We believe traders are not interesting in new carry trade orders. The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We may expect the flat trades between the levels of 118.40 and 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 06.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The China stock market drama had a direct impact on the currencies behavior. The China manufacturing sector business activity surfaced the PMI fall to 48.2 vs. expected of 48.9. Ten consecutive month of falling triggered a new wave of concern about the Chinese economy state and its potential impact on global GDP. This fact, coupled with the Middle East conflict escalation where Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Iran, provoked a strong wave of risk aversion. The December Germany preliminary inflation data showed weak results: 0,2% against the forecasted median 0,3%. The USA statistics is disappointing as well. The manufacturing sector ISM has been below 50% for two consecutive months, indicating a business activity slowdown. The index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 in December. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease. The UK November number of mortgage approvals in 2015 amounted to 70.4 thousand which is 0.77% more than in the previous month and 18.81% more than in November 2014. That is the mortgage market which is the main growth driver in the real estate sector and in view of the above-described positive momentum we expected the construction sector PMI within the consensus forecast which may provide some support for the Cable. The data came out at the level of 57,8 against the forecasted 56,0. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades. The world stock indices collapse strengthened safe-haven assets. The main beneficiary was the yen. Still the followed USD buying changed the alignment of forces in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, after a slight correction the pair fell again. Technical analysis Euro General overview In addition to a dollar general direction movement change the Germany inflation report has brought a bit of negative when the consumer prices growth index slowed to + 0.2% y/y from 0.3% while traders expected it to accelerate to 0.4%. The euro area inflation report was the key event of Tuesday that came out worse then forecasted median. In addition, Germany has surfaced labor market indicators: -14K and -6K. The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0630, 1.0550. Pound General overview Neither the British statistics bright data nor the weak US figures did not help the pound which is showing the downward trend still expecting the Bank of England rate hike in the coming year. We expect the Bank of England credit conditions report this week. The price is finding the first support at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4760. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.4630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4560 will be opened. Yen General overview The yen rally against the dollar and the euro was stopped on Tuesday when the Chinese stock market started a recovery though traders are still not sure that the Chinese market reached its bottom. The yen still may strengthen expecting the BoJ monetary policy easing in the short term. The United States weak data may support the yen due to risk aversion. The United States published the New York ISM at the level of 716,6. The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 05.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The last trading day of 2015 was marked by the dollar strengthening against its major rivals. Most of the traders left the market earlier to celebrate the Catholic Christmas and the New Year. The weak US data did not stop the EUR/USD from growth. The weekly unemployment benefits rose by 20K to the mark 287 000. In economic news, the Chicago Fed business activity index came in at 42.9, not much short of the forecast of 49.8. In the middle of last week, the ECB reported about the November private sector lending growth, the rate was 1.4% in annual terms which is the highest level in the past year. Monday trading was revived due to the planned statistics. The euro area countries published the manufacturing business activity. Germany surfaced the inflation report: 0,3% y/y and -0,1% m/m against forecasted 0,6% y/y и 0,2% m/m. The Germany PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 53,2 against forecasted 53,0. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decrease. The UK published money supply report 0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m. The Britain PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 51,9 against forecasted 52,7. The 10-year UK government bonds yield is growing relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which supports the demand for the pound. However, the trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease. The US and Japanese government bond yield differential exceeded the level of 200 pp which increases the US assets investment attractiveness. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth by the end of the day. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro lost 10% over the past year while it declined by 12% in 2014. In December, the pair returned a part of the losses due to the November two key Central Banks careful actions - the ECB refrained from a large-scale stimulus, the Fed raised its rate by 0.25%. The fact that the US regulator began the monetary policy normalization while the rest of the world central banks including the ECB continue their soft policy. This factor is likely to continue to provide support to the greenback in the coming year. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon. Pound General overview The Cable is still under strong "bearish" pressure amid the UK economy weak forecasts and the negative prospects for the Bank of England interest rates growth. The price is finding the first support at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4830. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.4760 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4830. Yen General overview Traders bought the yen as a safe haven when the Chinese market fell more than 7%, while Japanese's stock index lost 3%. The Japanese industrial sector business activity index showed growth to 52.6 in December from 52.5 in November. The US published the manufacturing sector PMI from ISM report at the level of 48,2 against the forecasted median at 49,0. The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.30. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 04.01.2016 Fundamental analysis There was a mixed trend at the Forex market last trading week of the year, some pairs even showed an increased volatility in their trading. The dollar resumed its growth against its competitors, having received support from the positive sentiment in the stock markets as well as strong data from the US. In general, traders’ activity continued to fall on the eve of the New Year holidays. The dollar purchases alongside with the stock markets positive sentiment and favorable statistics from the United States became the driver for the EUR/USD downward dynamics resumption. In particular, prices, contrary to the predictions, kept the growth rate of 5.5% and the consumer confidence in December jumped to 96.5 versus the expected 93.8 and the previous value of the index at 90.4. The recent figures again indicated that the US economy is in great shape and is ready to tighten monetary policy further even more rapid pace. As for the pair GBPUSD, the pound decreased amid the Cable fundamental weakness due to the recent sharp deterioration of macroeconomic data (inflation slowdown, the GDP decline), which has taken away from the markets hope for a rate hike by the Bank of England next year. The pair pound/dollar slightly corrected upwards by the end of the trades. The USDJPY showed the most restrained dynamics. The pair’s movement is limited by the resistance around 121.30 and the support at 120.40 area. However, even strong statistics from the United States was unable to revive the pair. Technical analysis Euro General overview The German government bonds rose relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increases the investments attractiveness in European assets and thereby supports the demand for euro. Nevertheless, the euro slightly fell. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations When the price consolidates below the level of 1.0925 it may go to the level 1.0800. Pound General overview We see a mixed background of the British currency. The 10-year UK government bonds decline relative to their US and Germany reduces the British assets attractiveness adding a downward pressure on the pound. The Cable situation is worst among the major currencies on the current US dollar corrective phase. The pound increased only by the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will trade in a flat between the levels of 1.4760-1.4830. Yen General overview The world's leading stock indices show a rising trend alongside with the high-yield cross-rates in the currency market. Such dynamics indicates growth "risk appetite" among investors which is traditionally a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40. The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. Franc General overview The franc strengthened against its main rivals. According to forecasts the Switzerland GDP may increase by 1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. The National Bank of Switzerland policy also has a huge impact the franc dynamics. The ongoing EUR/CHF intervention limits the franc growth as well. The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100. The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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в[цвет=#00BF00][ед]"Форт финансовых услуг"- фундаментальный и технический анализ[/у][/цвет][/б] в[цвет=#0000BF]11.12.2015[/цвет][/б] [б][я][цвет=#FF8000]фундаментальный анализ[/цвет][/и][/б] [я]в США опубликованы заявки на пособие по безработице отчет. По данным Департамента труда США количество первичных заявок по безработице стало больше, чем прогнозировали 269 тыс. увеличившись до 282 тысяч. Мы полагаем, что пара USD/коррекционная фаза подошла к концу. США порадовали трейдеров с розничных продаж сильные данные ликуют "медведей" на короткий. США и Германия доходности государственных облигаций выросли, что увеличило инвестиционную привлекательность в американские активы. Рынки ожидают, что FOMC повысит ключевую ставку на 0,25% 16 декабря, которые укреплены ФРС и ЕЦБ денежно-кредитной политики дивергенции, что будет способствовать снижению единой европейской валюты. Пара евро/доллар показал снижение по итогам торгов вчера. СК доходности государственных облигаций выросли по отношению к их аналогам США и Германии, которые поддержали спрос на Британские активы. Банк Англии, заседание по монетарной политике проходит. В Великобритании инфляция снизилась на 0,16% за первые десять месяцев текущего года, который составляет 0.62% меньше, чем в тот же период в 2014 году. Рынок труда демонстрирует устойчивую позитивную динамику одновременно: уровень безработицы за первые три квартала этого года снизился на 0,4% до отметки 5.3% при среднем росте прибыли за третий квартал составил 3% в годовом выражении. Пара фунт/доллар немного снизилась. Японцы и США дифференциал доходности государственных облигаций повысило инвестиционную привлекательность в американские активы, поддерживая спрос на доллар. Высокотехнологичный сектор был лидером падения в Северо-американских и европейских фондовых рынков, а лидером роста стал "защитным" коммунального сектора. Однако после непродолжительного роста пара доллар/иена снизилась.[/я] [имг]http://savepic.su/6710848.jpg[/имг] [б][я][цвет=#FF8000]Технический анализ[/цвет][/и][/б] в[цвет=#00BF00] наЕвро (EUR)[/у][/цвет][/б] в[цвет=#0000BF]Общий обзор[/цвет][/б] Евро краткосрочной коррекции цикл подходит к своему логическому завершению. Пара евро/доллар оказалась одним из главных бенефициаров продаж рискованных активов, связанных с сырьевыми товарами рынок рухнет. Пара была также поддержана в Германии данные по торговому балансу. В ноябре торговый профицит составил 20,8 млрд. евро в Еврозоне по величине страна против прогноза в 20 млрд. и предыдущего значения на уровне 19,2 млрд долл. Цена найти первую поддержку на 1.0925, следующий-1.0800. Цена является обнаружение первого сопротивления на уровне 1.1050, следующий-на 1.1150. Есть подтвержденный и сильный сигнал на покупку. Цена находится выше облака и выше Чинкоу Спан. Линия tenkan-Sen показывает восходящее движение и Киджун-сен показывает горизонтальное движение. Восходящее движение будет до тех пор, пока цена находится над облаком. Индикатор MACD находится в положительной территории. Цена коррекции. [цвет=#0000cc][б]торговые рекомендации[/б][/цвет] После поддержки уровня 1.0925 прорыва нисходящее движение будет продолжено. Потенциал снижения целевых показателей двух уровней поддержки: 1.0800 и 1.0730 [имг]http://savepic.su/6693440.jpg[/имг] [цвет=#00cc00][А][Б]Фунт стерлингов (GBP)[/б][/у][/цвет] [цвет=#0000cc][б]Общий обзор[/б][/цвет] Пара уверенно двинулись на север, имея слегка корректируется от максимумов после резкого падения нефти после недавней коррекции, что ранее Поддерживаемые фунта роста. Великобритания опубликовала свой Октябрьский торговый баланс. Торговый баланс ожидается -11,83 V от -9,70 в. Цена является нахождение первой поддержки на 1.5150, следующий-на 1.5100. Цена является обнаружение первого сопротивления на отметке 1.5200, следующий-на 1.5300. Есть подтвержденный и сильный сигнал на покупку. Цена находится выше облака и выше Чинкоу Спан. Линия tenkan-Sen показывает восходящее движение и Киджун-сен показывает горизонтальное движение, и сформировать “Золотой крест”. Восходящее движение будет до тех пор, пока цена находится над облаком. Индикатор MACD находится в положительной территории. Цена консолидируется. [цвет=#0000cc][б]торговые рекомендации[/б][/цвет] Мы можем ожидать торгуется во флете между уровнем сопротивления 1.5200 и 1.5150 уровень поддержки. [имг]http://savepic.su/6747715.jpg[/имг] [цвет=#00cc00][А][Б]иена (JPY)[/б][/у][/цвет] [цвет=#0000cc][б]Общий обзор[/б][/цвет] Нисходящий тренд продолжается, на фоне "рисковых активов" позиции резки. Пара USD/JPY упала жертвой статус иены как валюты-убежища. Помимо роста доллара и индекс Nikkei макроэкономическая статистика поддержала иену. После ВВП последние благоприятные данные Японии, опубликованные в машины и оборудование отчете о заказах, которые замедлили в ноябре снизится до -17.9% Г / Г от -22.9% ранее. Цена найти первую поддержку на 121.30, следующий-120.40. Цена является обнаружение первого сопротивления на уровне 122.40, следующий-в 123.20. Есть подтвержденный и сильный сигнал на продажу. Цена находится под облаком и под Чинкоу Спан. Линия tenkan-Sen показывает нисходящее движение и Киджун-сен показывает горизонтальное движение и сформировать “мертвый крест". Нисходящее движение будет до тех пор, пока цена находится под облаком. Индикатор MACD находится в отрицательной территории. Цена уменьшается. [цвет=#0000cc][б]торговые рекомендации[/б][/цвет] Подход до уровня 122.40 может привести к отскок цены вниз. Потенциал отскока целями являются поддержка уровня 121.30, 120.40. [имг]http://savepic.su/6739523.jpg[/имг] [цвет=#00cc00][А][Б]Франк (CHF)[/б][/у][/цвет] [цвет=#0000cc][б]Общий обзор[/б][/цвет] Франк остановил нисходящее движение. Швейцарский Национальный банк оставил процентные ставки без изменений на отметке 0.75%. Франк показал разностороннюю торговлю против других основных валют после публикации процентной ставки. Цена найти первую поддержку на 0.9850, следующий-0.9750. Цена является обнаружение первого сопротивления на отметке 0.9960, следующий-на 1.0100. Есть подтвержденный и сильный сигнал на продажу. Цена находится под облаком и под Чинкоу Спан. Линия tenkan-Sen показывает нисходящее движение и Киджун-сен показывает горизонтальное движение и сформировать “мертвый крест”. Нисходящее движение будет до тех пор, пока цена находится под облаком. Индикатор MACD находится в отрицательной территории. Цена коррекции. [цвет=#0000cc][б]торговые рекомендации[/б][/цвет] Мы можем ожидать рост в направлении 0.9960 в дальнейшем мы ожидаем падения к 0.9850 и 0.9750. [имг]http://savepic.su/6733379.jpg[/имг] с [url=[/url" style="color: rgb(0, 119, 204);" target="_blank">https://www.fortfs.com/en][имг]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140726/3UKf6za6n5.jpg[/имг][/url-адреса]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 30.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The pair EUR/USD continued its lateral trend amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, as well as the low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving Day in the United States. The global equity market shows an upward trend, the Germany high-tech sector was the growth leader. This factor signaled abound the "risky assets" demand which had a negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. According to the dollar index, the quotations were near the psychological level of 100.00. The third quarter UK GDP came out. The data is at the forecasted level: 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The third quarter unemployment rate decreased by 0.3% to the level of 5.3%. This is the highest rate of the unemployment decline in 2015. The average wage increased by 3% on an annualized basis in this period which indicates the household spending growth and is a welcome factor for the economic growth. The data output at the level of 0.6% supported the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD decreased. Japan has published a bloc of important macroeconomic statistics where the inflation: 0,0% (y/y). The CPI has increased by 0.58% for the first nine months of this year while the average earnings grew by only 0.25%. Thus, the population real incomes have reduced and in that respect, the Bank of Japan governor H. Kuroda told about the weak wage dynamics at the monetary regulator last meeting. The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect the inflation investors' expectations fell by 4 bp in October. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro remained under the downward pressure against the US dollar in anticipation of the upcoming ECB meeting. Investors' expectations regarding the ECB more aggressive the rates easing keep growing ahead of the meeting. Economists predict that the ECB may disappoint the market expectations for the upcoming meeting. The downward trend may show weakness in the short term. Trades are held below the strong resistance level of 1.0630. While the level is holding back the price growth from the level of 1.0550, the downward trend potential is still preserved. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK GDP 3rd quarter estimate is 0.5% q/q + 2.3% y/y that is completely unchanged. The Sterling did not grow because of the UK and Germany government bond yield reduction. The upward correction that was formed from the support level of 1.5040, gradually began to turn towards the bearish trend. The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.5040 line break that will open the way to the level of 1.4970. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese inflation data at the level of 0.2% came in worse than the consensus forecast year on year which had a downward pressure on the Japanese currency. The "investors’ risk appetite growth" is a threat to the yen as a funding currency. The dollar bullish sentiment is dominating. Bulls did not have enough strength at the same time to break through the strong level of 123.20. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar and the franc remained mostly at the same place as on Thursday when the US markets were closed to celebrate Thanksgiving Day. The sales remained sluggish until the end of the day as the US markets were closed early on Friday, extending the holiday lull. However by the end of the day the pair slightly increased. The pair remains stable near the recent highs. The USD/CHF pair consolidated above the strong resistance level of 1.0280. The Swiss franc upward trend is stable, despite the strong divergence on the volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.0280, the next one is 1.0190. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0370. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the target – 1.0370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 27.11.2015 Fundamental analysis In economic news, the US durable goods orders positive releases and the jobless claims got the pair EUR/USD to the fresh low for the last seven months. The US important macroeconomic statistics have not been published amid the day off due to the Thanksgiving celebration. Europe published important reports, excluding the Spain GDP for the 3 rd quarter (3,4% y/y and 0,8% q/q) and the euro zone M3 money supply (growth by 5,3%). The pair GBP/USD has managed to recover after a decline. The Cable was supported after the UK Budget Responsibility Office raised the country GDP forecast for the next year to 2.4%. The report also informs about the budget surplus prospects and the labor market improvements. The yen was supported by the Bank of Japan minutes which pointed to the risk control concern for the economic growth and the inflation. The most favorable statistics gave quotations additional stimulus to growth. There was a weak volatility in the market amid the holiday in the USA. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics; moreover, the United States had a day off. The American traders left the market for a long weekend to celebrate Thanksgiving in a good mood - the dollar is trading near the multi-year highs. In general the technical studies remain bearish. There was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough. The price fixated below this level and formed a consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The trend is a down side. The approach to the level of 1.0630 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0550, 1.0420. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK debt market government bond yields have been growing for the last few days in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. As the United States has a day off on Thursday – amid the low liquidity "bulls" opened long positions, based the corrective movement development. Sellers have not been able to consolidate below the strong support level of 1.5100. The level reverse testing was followed by its breakthrough upwards. The resistance level of 1.5150 was the potential target for a correction. The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040. Yen (JPY) General overview The investors "risk appetite" growth will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency and may encourage "bulls" to long. The US traders’ absence caused the low liquidity. The US celebrated Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. There was weak volatility after the growth. Sellers lowered the price to the support level of 122.40. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction weakening. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price breaks 122.40 down it will open the way to the support level of 121.30. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc came against the dollar. The Switzerland industrial orders report amounted to -5.1% vs. -2.4% previously. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank said about the US economic growth decrease in the fourth quarter from 2.3% to + 1.8% for the year. The decrease is connected with the consumer spending rate reduction from 3.1% to 2.2%. The pair has stabilized. The price fixated above the support level of 1.0190. The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 26.11.2015 Fundamental analysis There is a long weekend in the USD amid the Thanksgiving Day celebration. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than forecasted 273 thousand having fallen to 260 thousand. The euro continued its sluggish recovery against the US dollar. The Germany GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter. The Germany economic expectations, business optimism and the current situation assessment indices were higher than the predicted values. The US GDP report was revised upwards to the mark of 2.1%. However, the pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the day. The UK calendar was empty and investors had to focus their attention on the US data. The course of trades was determined by the debt and the equity markets dynamics. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech excited the market a little bit as he noted the inflation decrease and the possible soft monetary policy period extension. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased. The third quarter US GDP got the US and Japan government bond yields to increase. The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar, despite the good overseas statistics. The yen regained its reserve currency status amid the risky assets escape. However, the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a growth. Euro (EUR) General overview We think that the euro grew only due to the need from time to time to be corrected. The US currency continued to be in demand as the two-year Treasury bond yields are now in the field of multi-year highs. Amid this fact the pair EUR/USD decreased. The pair EUR/USD consolidated above the support level of 1.0630. The price reached this level amid the low volumes then it formed a consolidation. Then there was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The sellers need to break below 1.0550 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0420 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK/US and Germany credit markets spreads have stabilized after the week of contraction. The US traders left the market for a long weekend amid the Thanksgiving national holiday. There was a strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough. Sellers broke through but could not fixate below. This level was broken upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5040 soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar. There was that upward trend in the stock market. – The "protective" communal sector was the decline leader that indicates the risk appetite increase among investors and put pressure on the yen as a funding currency. As a result the dollar became a leader. The USD/JPY downward correction stopped at the support level of 122.40. Sellers lowered the price to this level. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction easing. There was price upwards rebound. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations After the support level of 122.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 121.30 will be opened. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

Dear Clients! We would like to remind you that, due to the celebration of the Thanksgiving Day in the USA, the US exchanges will be closed on Thursday the 26th of November. On Friday, the 27th of November, is planned an early closure of trades on the US exchanges. As a result, we would like you to keep in mind the following information: On Thursday, the 26th of November, the trading on futures contracts of the US exchanges will be closed (CME, GLOBEX, ICE), as well as the ETF contracts and CFD on the US shares (NYSE, NASDAQ). On Friday, the 27th of November, early closure of trading: 20:15 – futures contracts of the US exchanges, 20:00 – ETF and CFD on teh US shares. Please pay attention that during the indicated time period there is a possibility of low liquidity on the FOREX market and during trades on spot metals. This schedule holds an informative purpose and may be changed without notice.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 25.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The IFO Institute published the November Germany business climate data. The data came out better then forecasted 108,2 at the level of 109,0. The Markit PMI composite index shows the number of optimists’ growth among the purchasing managers. The US GDP was revised upwards amid the positive macroeconomic indicators. This factor has spurred the US two –year Treasury bonds growth which supported the dollar. However the pair closed the trades with a slight increase. The Britain inflation parliamentary hearings results were interpreted quite negatively by traders. The medium-term forecast was revised to the negative side amid the oil prices decline, the British currency growth against the main trading partner (euro). In the light of this, the monetary authorities have stated once again that interest rates will not be raised in 2016. the pair pound/dollar sharply fell. The US third quarter GDP revised data made investors open long positions as the Japanese and the US indicators’ differential has been expanded even further in favor of the latter as Japan has slipped into the technical recession. The current trend is reflected in the debt market which has led to the US Treasury bonds growth for a short-time which is traditionally a strong positive factor for the dollar. We cannot ignore the demand dynamics for the "risky assets". However the dollar’s strengthening was short-term and the pair USD/JPY decreased. Euro (EUR) General overview The EUR index lost 4.08% at the beginning of the fourth quarter which is a positive factor on the euro zone net exports and will contribute to the production volume growth and the unemployment reduction in the medium term. The Germany and the US government bond yields reduction have supported the euro bulls. Sellers tried to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.0630. However the pair closed the trades above this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.1630 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.0730, 1.0800. Pound (GBP) General overview The "bearish" trend is gaining momentum and the British pound rushed to the current month minimum values. The UK government bond yields continued to decline on the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduced the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Breaking through the support level of 1.5150, the downward trend has managed to test the nearest target that is the mark of 1.5100. After the level of 1.5150 testing there was a consolidation with the downward trend continuation. The bears fixated the price below the level of 1.5100. The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.5100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5150. Yen (JPY) General overview The "bullish" sentiments have prevailed. The stock markets’ upward trend with the high-yield cross-rates increase indicated the "risk appetite presence among investors" which had a negative impact on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the yen became a leader again and the pair USD/JPY fell. The medium-term bullish trend was stopped at the resistance level of 123.80 and turned downwards for a correction. Due to the formed correction sellers break through the mark of 123.20 and tested the support level of 122.40. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 24.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The November Germany manufacturing sector business climate report has been published by Markit Economics. The data output was at the level of 52.00 which indicates the moderately positive dynamics and shall give a short-term support for the single European currency. The employment and average earnings growth with the interest rates reduction on 30-year mortgages allowed banks to increase the mortgage lending in October. In this connection, the data is expected to be a little better than the forecasted medians, the data came out at the level 52,6. It is impossible to ignore the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech last week. The ECB governor told: "We'll do everything we need to do for the early inflation rising". The pair euro/dollar was trading in a side corridor. Now the debt market dynamics is on the bears’ side in the pair GBP/USD: the UK government bond yields have been declining for last three trading days relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Last week CBI again reported about the industrial orders volume reduction and the negative trend has been lasting for seven months in a row. The pair pound/dollar continued its decrease. The Japanese and the US government bond yields have been declining for last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the Japanese assets. The dollar was supported by the "black gold" market pessimistic sentiments: the Baker Hughes release was not able to provide strong support to the oil quotations, despite the fact that the number of drilling rigs decreased by 10 units. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro zone monetary authorities once again underlined that they were ready to go for the monetary policy further easing if necessary. However, the debt market dynamics is on the euro bulls side now: The German 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The last week minimum of 1.0630 was updated. Sellers managed to update and consolidate below this mark. Until recently this support started to play the resistance role. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.0550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0420. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound has increased by 3.4% over the last eighteen months against its main trading partner which increases the risk for the UK exporters. The CBI respondents identified two key negative factors: the strong pound and the global economic growth weakness. The British pound showed a decrease from the resistance level of 1.5300. The pair broke through the support levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150. The price reached the levels amid the low volumes, but with an increased volatility. The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200. There is a confirmed and a srong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040. Yen (JPY) General overview There was the US secondary market home sales positive publication. However the data came out at the level 5,36M, the forecast was 5,40M. The dollar rally comes to the end; traders have already priced in a bet the December Fed raising interest rates forecast. The final decision will depend on the Fed economic data, so the personal consumption expenditures deflator which will be released on Wednesday will determine whether the US monetary tightening cycle starts in 2015 or not. The buyers’ previous attempts to break through above the resistance level of 122.40 were unsuccessful. The pair rebounded downward from this level. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40 and 121.30. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 23.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The initial jobless claims number fell by 5 thousand till 271 thousand. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business activity report has shown a much more positive trend than it was forecasted - the index rose up by 1.9 in November against the October 4.5 with the improvement expectations only to -1.0. The prospects can be judged to some extent by indicators which increased by new orders index to -3.7 against -10.6, still the employment rose up to 2.6 after the previous -1.7. The euro zone and the US important macroeconomic data have not been published. The ECB President Mario Draghi gave his speech. The monetary regulator has once again confirmed its intention to change the ECB monetary policy if needed, still traders have not received a clear signal from him. Пара EUR/USD slightly fell by the end of the day. In the absence of interesting macroeconomic releases the last trading day of the week, traders have closely followed the debt and commodity markets dynamics. The UK credit markets government bond yields are reducing relative to their US counterparts. The commodity market has stabilized after the strong sales in the strong negative fundamental trend. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD sharply fell. The United States and Japan have absolutely opposite macroeconomic statistics which the market gets during autumn. The United States is encouraging investors with the labor market and consumer spending positive data that has forced to think seriously about the Fed interest rates raising on December 16th. Even the dollar revaluation factor has had no significant negative influence. The pair USD/JPY closed the week trades with a decrease. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview It is hard to ignore the euro zone payments balance dynamics that is an important macroeconomic indicator. The trades surplus was 73.4 billion euros in the third quarter of 2015 which is less by 7.08% than it was in the second quarter, but by 10.7% more than in the same period of the last year. The positive dynamics in comparison with the year 2014 is related to the single European currency devaluation. “Bulls” have attempted to start a growth. The price was at the level of 1.0730 and rebound downwards, trades were held with a decrease to the mark of 1.0630. The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their German counterparts. The British Industry Confederation (CBI) data were not so encouraging that showed the industrial production index decreased in November to -6 against the earlier 4 and the orders indicator reduction to -11 from -8 in October. The "bulls" attempt to continue growth has failed. The resistance at the level of 1.5300 has been only tested. The price could not break through that mark and returned downwards. The support level of 1.5200 was broken through. The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.5200 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The pair dollar/yen has declined. In addition to general market sentiment, formed under the influence of the Fed protocols content, sales within this pair were caused by disappointment that the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged when a certain part of the market still hoped to hear about the leniency programs capacity. The pair continued its decline to the mark of 122.40 but it was stopped. The pair formed a consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30. Franc (CHF) General overview The decrease in this pair stopped. Earlier the pair USD / CHF continued to fall while the dollar was declining on all fronts after the Fed officials’ comments. The Federal Reserve Bank manager Cleveland Loretta Mester said that the Fed has almost reached the employment targets. She is confident that the inflation target of 2% can be achieved despite the oil prices decline and the dollar growth. She believes that the longer delay is (with higher rates), the higher financial imbalances chances are. By the end of the trades the pair showed a growth. The pair dollar / franc stopped its correctional movement. The pair increased and tested the level of 1.0190. The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations After the resistance level of 1.0190 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.0280 will be opened. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 20.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes could not disappoint investors. Most the Fed managers expect the necessary conditions to the interest rates increase to be achieved by the December meeting. There was the risks reduction that was caused by the trading partners’ economic slowdown. The fundamental background is still negative for the single European currency. However, the pair corrected upwards yesterday. The UK and the US government bond yields expanded in favor of the latter which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The commodity market showed the "bearish" sentiment that supports the US currency. Nevertheless, the pound strengthened against the dollar. The US inflation short-term forecast was revised towards the positive direction; the medium-term view remains the same. Against this background, the dollar index basket (USDX) strengthened. Japan is in the technical recession, due to many factors, one of which is the China business activity slowdown which is one of the Japan leading trade partners. The Bank of Japan meeting was held where the country monetary policy was discussed. The bank decided not to change it. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US Treasury two-year bond yields is once again demonstrating growth that supports the demand for the US dollar. Investors are still pessimistic about the European assets in the bond market: the German 10-year government bonds are reducing relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The number of the US initial jobless claims report was published. The report showed the number that coincides with the forecast - 271K. The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.0730 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0630, 1.0550. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK National Statistics Office published the October retail sales report. The consensus forecast pointed out to the retail sector sales growth slowdown by 0.4% compared with the previous month as the September sales increased by 1.9%. In fact the index fell by 0,6%. The UK unemployment fell to their lowest levels since mid-2008, the third quarter average earnings increased by 3% in annual terms. The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event of the day. It was the monetary regulator first meeting after Japan fell into the technical recession. The low wage growth constrains household spending. The Japanese currency growth against the US dollar to 2.16% in the third quarter contributed to the exports decline which increased the trade deficit. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We expect the 123.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc rose slightly after the FOMC minutes publication. The Switzerland government reported that Jordan can hold intervention in the currency market. According to his words, negative rates lead to the overvalued franc. The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target – 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 19.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The German ZEW institute business climate showed the figures better than the consensus forecast, still this indicator downward trend is still strong. On the contrary, the United States have pleased traders with the October moderately positive inflation data. In the light of this the United States and the Germany bond yields grew that increases the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets. The FOMC authoritative representative U.Dadli gave his speech in the United States. He said that the rates growth would be a good news for the dollar. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat. The US and the UK CPI differential profitability indicators declined in favor of the latter in October which caused the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The side trades were noted in the pair pound/dollar. According to the third quarter GDP data, Japan slipped into the technical recession. The US October inflation showed a moderate growth that reinforced investors' expectations, regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening possibility. The Japanese yen is an obvious outsider among the other pairs. The pair dollar/yen increased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The sentiment related with the ECB and the Fed multi-directional policy continued to help the US dollar to keep the leadership. The European statistics has not published important news, the September construction volume data did not change the market sentiment. After M. Draghi unequivocal sayings about the intention to increase the monetary policy easing, the ECB representatives' statements were ignored. The pair shows a consolidation above the support level of 1.0630 after its reduction and this level testing. The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.0630, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0550. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound was supported by the UK inflation data. The UK did not publish any important news. The news background was filled with the Bank of England representatives’ speeches that were ignored. Investors were waiting for the US FOMC last meeting reports. "Bulls" have not been able to renew their attempts to increase to the resistance level of 1.5300. The price broke through the support level of 1.5200 but then it returned above this level. The pair started its consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair can rebound to the resistance level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The pair has slightly increased, supported by the continuing dollar growth and the Japan stock market optimism growth. However, there was not any high activity at the market. The price demonstrated the slight decline caused by the technical factors and the lack of Japanese economic news. The Fed minutes have been published, but they have not had any effect on the dollar. The price continued its growth, but was stopped below the mark of 123.80. The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.