LiteForexTeam

EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend Yesterday the pair grew against the poor speech of the USA FRS. The investors expected to get more specific information concerning the USA interest rate rise, as in the previous meeting the FRS declared the intention to increase the rate triple in the year in the USA economy is in a satisfactory state. The FRS said that the employment rate growth is good and there are positive trends in the consumers’ mood, however the inflation is still low and the business investments are poor. The interest rate was kept on the same level of 0.75%. There is no clear signal about the next interest rate rise schedule, which disappointed the traders. In this situation during the yesterday trading session the pair grew from the minimumа at the level of 1.0731 to 1.0789. In the morning trading session the pair continues to grow. Today the traders are waiting for the ECB President Draghi's Speech and the USA weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.0774, 1.0731, 1.0697, 1.0657. Resistance levels: 1.0817, 1.0872, 1.0924, 1.0955. Trading scenario On the 4-hour chart the Bollinger Bands indicator are pointed sideways, reflection the development of the upward trend. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are rising, forming a buy signal. Open long positions is the price is set above the level of 1.0817 with the target at 1.0872 and stop loss at 1.0787. Open short positions if the price is set below the level of 1.0731 with the target at 1.0697, 1.0657 and stop loss at 1.0757.

GBP/USD: technical analysis GBP/USD, D1 On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65 but below the EMA130 and SMA200 that are turning horizontally. The RSI is about to retest its most recent resistance. The Composite turned up as well but shows only a small upward impulse. GBP/USD, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading just below the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that turned up. The RSI is testing its longer MA and approaching the overbought zone. The Composite is growing having formed a substantial divergence with the price earlier in the week. Key levels Support levels: 1.2567 (local lows), 1.2511 (local lows), 1.2345 (November 2016 lows). Resistance levels: 1.2663 (January highs), 1.2722 (December 2016 highs), 1.2790 (July 2016 lows). Trading tips The price is approaching the upper border of the sideways channel where it could reverse downward. Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2663 with targets at 1.2722, 1.2790 and stop-loss at 1.2632. Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.2722 with targets at 1.2663, 1.2567, 1.2511 and stop-loss at 1.2768.

WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis WTI Crude Oil, D1 On the daily chart the price is lowering, broken the support level formed by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a sell signal, its volumes are slightly decreasing. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone, pointed downwards. WTI Crude Oil, H4 On the 4-hour chart the price is lowering towards the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. If the channel, formed by its borders, widens, the downward dynamics can develop further. The MACD histogram is near the zero line, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line downwards, after which the signal to open short positions will be received. The Stochastic is crossing the neutral zone and the oversold zone border downwards, forming a buy signal. Key levels Support levels: 52.50, 52.20, 51.70. Resistance levels: 53.00, 53.50, 54.10, 54.50, 55.00. Trading scenario According to the technical indicators, it’s better to open short positions from the level of 52.50 with the target at 52.00, 51.70. Stop loss is at 52.80. Implementation period: 1-3 days. Open long positions at the level of 53.00 with the target at 53.50 and stop loss at 52.70. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

NZD/USD: update of the highs is unlikely Current trend The NZD/USD pair is still going up, "kiwi" won against the US dollar more than 400 points over the last month and reached the level of 0.7310. The main catalyst for the pair remains the tense political situation associated with the change of leadership of the United States. In addition, a number of negative releases came out in the US last week: weak data on the labor market, the construction sector, and preliminary data on GDP. This week, it is worth paying special attention to the Fed's decision on rates, and comments on the US monetary policy. Support and resistance The pair is moving upwards quite confidently, and the probability of reaching the target levels of 2016: 0.7400, 0.7480 is high. After that a reversal would be quite possible, either from the current level (the upper limit of the downward range) or from local highs 0.7400, 0.7480 with the target of 0.6875. Technical indicators’ signal remains the same: the volume of long positions of MACD indicator remains at a high level, and the upper Bollinger band consolidated at the level of 0.7355. Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7135, 0.7050, 0.7010, 0.6950, 0.6875, 0.6795, 0.6750. Resistance levels: 0.7355, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7610, 0.7700, 0.7735, 0.7780, 0.7835. Trading tips In this situation short positions could be opened from the key resistance levels of 0.7400, 0.7480, expecting a reversal in the pair with a target at 0.6875. Stop-loss can be set at the level of 0.7530.

USD/JPY: technical analysis USD/JPY, D1 On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is about to test its longer MA having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics. USD/JPY, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the pair is growing along the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA13, EMA65 and EMA130 but below the SMA200, all are horizontal. The RSI is approaching the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is testing its strong resistance. Key levels Support levels: 114.42 (local lows), 113.97 (local lows), 112.54 (January lows). Resistance levels: 115.57 (local highs), 116.00 (2015 lows), 118.20 (January highs). Trading tips The pair might be forming a “flag” pattern. There is a chance of a downward rebound from its upper border while its breakout could lead to a retest of January highs. Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 115.57 with targets at 114.42, 113.97, 112.54 and stop-loss at 116.00. Long positions can be opened from the level of 116.00 with the target at 118.20 and stop-loss at 115.57.

USD/CHF: Fibonacci analysis A price reversal and a correction to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands are most likely. On the four-hour chart the price is testing its lowest level since November 2016 in the area of 0.9960. Breakdown of this level could lead to a further decline to the level of 0.9860 (61.8% correction for the medium-term trend). Otherwise, the correction is possible to the levels of 1.0030 (38.2% correction for the medium-term trend) and 1.0095 (38.2% correction for the short-term trend, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the D1). Growth scenario seems more likely, since the Stochastic lines have crossed, trying to turn up. On the daily chart, the price moves along the arc of 38.2% in an effort to break up the level of 1.0010 (38.2% correction), then to rush to the area of 1.0095 (middle line of the Bollinger bands) and 1.0120 (23.6% correction). Since Stochastics turns up in the oversold zone, the price growth seems more likely. The main scenario Buy positions can be opened above the level of 1.0010 with the targets at 1.0095 and 1.0120. The stop loss order should be placed at around 0.9970. Alternative scenario Sell positions should be placed below the level of 0.9960 with the targets at 0.9920, 0.9860, 0.9830, and stop-loss at 0.9990.

USD/CAD: general analysis Current trend The Canada Wholesale Sales index, published on January, 23, was lower than expected and lower than the previous value, which is negative, “bearish” factor for the CAD. Still the decision to keep the interest rate on the level of 0.5%, published on January, 18, outweighed the negative data. From the beginning of the week the pair continue to lower, crossed its strong support range of the lower border of the daily channel and 1.3200 downwards, pointing at the next support levels of 1.3080, 1.2990 and 1.2880. There are some key issues for the pair to be published on the week. Today it is the USA Housing Price Index and USA Initial Jobless Claims data tomorrow: according to the last reports, the index is lowering, which can support the USD. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is growing against the December report. The New Home Sales statistics is expected to lower a bit, making a negative impact on the USD. The USA CB Leading Indicator is expected to grow by 0.2%, which support the USD. As a result, today and tomorrow the pair is under the pressure of many controversial factors. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.3080, 1.2990, 1.2880, 1.2750. Resistance levels: 1.3200, 13280, 1.3330, 1.3400. Trading scenario Open short positions at the current price with the target at 1.3080, 1.2990, 1.2880. Stop loss is at 1.3200. Open long positions if the price is back in the daily channel over the level of 1.3200 with the target at 1.3280, 1.3330. Stop loss is at 1.3140.

Brent Crude Oil: General analysis Current trend From the opening of the morning trading session the oil prices are growing against yesterday lowering to the level of 54.96. The weakening dollar supports the oil price. The lowering of the dollar is due to the recent speech of the President of the USA, when he accented on the protectionist measures towards the USA economy, while investors were waiting for more specific plans of USA fiscal reformation. The price are also supported by the oil production limitation by OPEC and non-OPEC countries. On the OPEC members meeting on January, 22, in Vienna, it was reported that the world oil production level has lowered by 1.7 million barrels per day. As a result the UKBrent price is reaching the level of 56.14. Today the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock index due at 23:30 (GMT+2) in the USA is worth traders attention. Support and resistance levels Support levels: 55.73, 54.96, 54.06. Resistance levels: 56.14, 57.15, 58.20. Trading tips On the 4-hour chart the technical indicators reflects the possibility of growth. The Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are rising, giving a buy signal. In the current situation open long positions after the breakdown and consolidation of the price above the level of 56.14 with the target at 57.15 and stop loss at 55.80. If the price is set below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at the level of 55.25, the downward trend can develop. In that scenario open short positions with the targets at 54.96, 54.08 and stop loss at 55.60.

NZD/USD: technical analysis NZD/USD, D1 On the daily chart, the pair is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is trying to turn down near the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is about to retest its longer MA showing Bearish dynamics. NZD/USD, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI turned down having failed its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA from above. Key levels Support levels: 0.7135 (local lows), 0.7110 (August 2016 lows), 0.7056 (April 2016 highs). Resistance levels: 0.7232 (December 2016 highs), 0.7311 (July 2016 highs), 0.7336 (August 2016 highs). Trading tips The pair is testing its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near the lower border of the previous ascending channel. There is a chance of a downward rebound. Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7135, 0.7110, 0.7056 and stop-loss at 0.7232. Validity – 3-5 days. Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7242 with targets at 0.7311, 0.7336 and stop-loss at 0.7212. Validity – 3-5 days.

EUR/USD: the market is waiting for Trump’s inauguration Current trend Yesterday the Head of the ECB Mario Draghi’s speech affected the market, and the price has tested the level of 1.0600, today it’s the turn of America to do the same. The Head of the FRS Janet Yellen had a conference in the Stanford University She said that the correction of the monetary policy should be gradual, and that some of her questions connected to the election of Donald Trump are still unclear. Such commentaries didn’t satisfy the traders, and the price grew to 1.6290. Now the investors are waiting for the Donald Trump’s inauguration and his speech, which can cause a significant volatility in the market. Support and resistance The price is near the upper border of the downward trend and can lower to the level of 1.0600 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%), which is confirmed by the downward reversal of the Stochastic The key level is 1.0600, the breakout and the consolidation of the price below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (the area of 1.0550 in the current moment) will let the price to lower to the levels of 1.0450 and 1.0370. But the scenario of a reversal from the level of 1.0600-1.0550 is still possible. In this case the price will grow to 1.0750 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 1.0865 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%). Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0450, 1.0370. Resistance levels: 1.0750, 1.0865. Trading scenario Open short positions if the price is set below 1.0600 and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator with the target at 1.0450, 1.0370 and stop loss at 1.0610. Open long positions in case of a rebound from the levels of 1.0650 or 1.0550 with the target at 1.0750, 1.0865 and stop loss at 1.0570 and 1.0510 correspondingly.

GBP/USD: the pair has a limited growth potential Current trend On Wednesday, the pair was corrected from the level of 1.2400 to the 1.2250 level. Today, the pair once again resumed its growth, which can reach the levels of 1.2380 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%) and 1.2470 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). However, in the long term position of the pound is evaluated negatively. The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, in an interview with BBC said that the British economy will be under further pressure, because the new free trade agreement with the EU, which the UK intends to achieve, in any case, would give the country fewer trade opportunities than if it remained a member of the European Union. Goldman Sachs experts believe that the process of negotiations on a new agreement can take a long time and may take more time than the "Brexit" itself. Support and resistance levels The pair has a potential to grow up to the levels of 1.2380 and 1.2470, as confirmed by the Stochastics, turning upwards. However, long-term negative factors could lead to a reversal of the price at the level of 1.2380, then to the breakdown of the level of 1.2290 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and to a further decrease to the levels of 1.2180 (23.6% correction) and 1.2120. Support levels: 1.2290, 1.2180, 1.2120. Resistance levels: 1.2380, 1.2470. Trading tips In this situation, the short-term long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2340 with the targets at 1.2380 and 1.2470. Stop loss orders can be set in the area of 1.2310. Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2380 or in case of breakdown of the level of 1.2290 with the targets at 1.2180, 1.2120 and stop losses at 1.2420, 1.2330, respectively.

USD/JPY: general analysis Current trend During the yesterday trading session the USD continued to fall against all the main currencies, including Yen. Investors are fixing the profit on the dollar assets. After the great growth due to the positive expectation of the new President policy the traders want to see the confirmation of the Trump’s intentions to reform the economy. Yesterday the USA FRS members’ commentaries supported the USD and helped it not to fall further. The FRS members said that the USA economy has almost reached the target level of the inflation and now is almost involved. Yesterday Trump’s commentaries of the “too strong” dollar and its bad affection on the USA economy pressed the USD. The USD/JPY pair has decreased to the level of 112.56, but today on the opening session the price was corrected upwards. Today the USA Consumer Price Index (15:30 GMT+2), the Industrial Production data (16:15 GMT+2), Fed's Beige Book review (21:00 GMT+2) and Janet Yellen Speech (22:00 GMT+2) are worth traders attention. Support and resistance Support levels: 113.00, 112.56, 112.00. Resistance levels: 113.50, 114.00, 114.47. Trading scenario On the 4-hour chart Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards, reflecting the development of the downward trend. Still the correction into the area of the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (113.86) is possible. The reversal from the level of 113.86 and the downward movement is possible. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are decreasing, reflecting the development of the correction. In case of the consolidation of the price above the level of 114.00 the formation of the upward trend is possible. Sell the pair after the price is set below the level of 113.00 with the target at 112.56, 112.00 and stop loss at 113.35. Open the pair after the price is set above the level of 114.00 with the target at 114.47, 115.00 and stop loss at 113.65.

EUR/GBP: Fibonacci analysis Possibility of fall continuation. On the 4-hour chart, the price fell below the level of 0.8718 (23.6% correction) and after a breakdown of the 38.2% fan line (which seems likely as Stochastic is directed down), the fall could continue towards 0.8650 (38.2% corrections for the medium-term and short-term trends) and 0.8590 (50% correction). However, the ascending fan could be an additional obstacle to the price, so in the region of 0.8650 the price might reverse and start growing towards its January highs. On the daily chart, the price is heading towards the level of 0.8650 (38.2% correction), a breakdown of which would lead to a fall continuation towards 0.8580 (lower line of Bollinger Bands), 0.8545 (23.6% correction). However, there is also a chance of a price reverse and growth towards the levels of 0.8742 (50% correction) and 0.8830 (61.8% correction), but this scenario seems unlikely (Stochastic turned down). Main scenario Sell the pair below the level of 0.8650 with targets at 0.8580, 0.8545 and stop-loss at 0.8690. Alternative scenario Buy the pair after the price rebound from the level of 0.8650 with targets at 0.8742, 0.8830 and stop-loss at 0.8620.

FDAX: technical analysis FDAX, D1 On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is showing Bearish dynamics having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is representing similar pattern. FDAX, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just above the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are turning horizontally. The RSI is testing its last week support. The Composite is approaching its support level as well. Key levels Support levels: 11484.2 (December 2016 highs), 11336.1 (local lows), 11220.7 (local lows). Resistance levels: 11638.5 (local highs), 11663.1 (local highs), 11792.3 (July 2015 highs). Trading tips The price is consolidating above a strong support level at 11484.2. Its breakdown could lead to a downward correction continuation, however, the main trend remains ascending. Short positions can be opened from the level of 11484.2 with the target at 11336.1 and stop-loss at 11524.0. Validity – 3-5 days. Long positions can be opened from the level of 11663.1 with the target at 11792.3 and stop-loss at 11638.5. Validity – 3-5 days.

XAU/USD: technical analysis XAU/USD, D1 On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that turned horizontal. The RSI is approaching the border of the overbought zone. The Composite starts forming a divergence with the price and RSI suggesting a downward reverse possibility. XAU/USD, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI has been forming a Bearish divergence just below the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is about to retest its strong resistance. Key levels Support levels: 1190.65 (local lows), 1170.55 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), 1146.96 (March 2015 lows). Resistance levels: 1207.46 (50% retracement), 1215.03 (April 2016 lows), 1244.55 (61.8% retracement). Trading tips There is chance of the downward reverse in the price. Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1207.46 with targets at 1190.65, 1170.55 and stop-loss at 1215.03. Validity – 3-5 days. Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1215.03 with the target at 1244.55 and stop-loss at 1205.13. Validity – 3-5 days.

USD/JPY: general analysis Current trend During the trading session on Tuesday the pair was lowering. The USA stock markets show the weakness, which affects the USD negatively. The growth of the Wholesale Inventories index by 1% has also pressured it: the growth of the index reflects the showering of the economical growth and can affect the GDP greatly. The JOLTS Job Openings is 5.522 million against the expected 5.555 million, which doesn’t support the USD also. The Japan Composite Index of Leading Indicators was growing to 102.7 points, exceeding the expectations by 0.1 points, which is good for the economy in the short term. Donald Trump’s press conference will be held today in the USA. The main issues are expected to concern the plans of increasing the infrastructure investment and the tax decreasing plans. There can be come volatility peaks in the market during the conference. Support and resistance On the 4-hour chart the pair was corrected to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping the signal to open short positions. Support levels: 105.50, 115.20, 104.90. Resistance levels: 116.300, 117.00, 117.50, 118.20. Trading scenario Open long positions from the level of 116.40 with the target at 117.00, 117.50. Stop loss is at 116.00. Open short positions from the level of 115.50 with the target at 114.90. Stop loss is at 115.80. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

Brent: oil prices fell Current trend The price of Brent crude oil fell at the beginning of the week amid growing concerns that the OPEC countries are going to carry out their agreement to cut the production. According to the experts, in the first days of January the Iraqi exports going through the port of Basra were the highest in the last 4 years. In addition, oil reserves in Iran’s floating storages significantly fell. In September 2016, their levels halved that indicates an increase in the country’s exports activities. Oil prices were also pressured by data on the number of oilrigs in the US. For the week ending on 30 December, their number rose by 4 to 529 rigs, reaching the highest level since December 2015. The number of rigs in the US has been growing for the 10th consecutive week. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands on the daily chart turned sideways while the price range remains unchanged. MACD is falling and giving a quite strong sell signal. Stochastic is falling as well and approaching the border of the oversold zone. The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals. Support levels: 55.07 (local low), 54.37, 53.91 (22 December low), 53.50, 52.68 (8 December low), 51.85. Resistance levels: 55.77 (20 December high), 56.50, 57.10 (12 December high), 57.52 (6 January high), 58.10, 58.68 (15 July 2015 high), 59.51. Trading tips Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 55.77 with targets at 57.10, 57.52 and stop-loss at 54.00. Validity – 2-3 days. Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 55.00 with targets at 53.50, 52.68 and stop-loss at 55.80. Validity – 2-3 days.

XAG/USD: technical analysis XAG/USD, D1 On the daily chart, the instrument is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is trying to turn down having broken out its December resistance. The Composite is testing its December resistance as well. XAG/USD, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with the moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is showing Bullish dynamics. The Composite is about to test its longer MA. Key levels Support levels: 16.15 (November 2016 lows), 15.67 (December 2016 lows), 15.34 (23.6% Fibonacci correction). Resistance levels: 16.71 (local highs), 17.07 (October 2016 lows), 17.20 (50% correction). Trading tips There is a chance the upward correction is going to continue. Long positions can be opened from the level of 16.71 with targets at 17.07, 17.20 and stop-loss at 16.55. Validity – 2-3 days. Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.15 with the target at 15.67 and stop-loss at 16.33. Validity – 2-3 days.

GBP/USD: general review Current trend The pair significantly grew yesterday amid a substantial weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure after the publication of the FOMC Minutes in the middle of the week. The Minutes, despite been quite hawkish, showed that further path of monetary policy tightening in the US is uncertain as the effect to the economy of the promised fiscal stimulus by Donald Trump is unknown yet. The market seems to agree with the regulator about high level of uncertainty, as the Dollar continues falling despite strong statistics that keep coming out in the US. Additional support to the Pound came from strong data on the Markit Services PMI. In December, the index rose from 55.2 to 56.2 points, well above forecasts. Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US. Support and resistance On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned down having failed its long-term SMA200, a breakout of which could lead to a growth continuation. However, the Composite has formed a divergence with the RSI and price, suggesting a decline possibility. Support levels: 1.2322 (local lows), 1.2297 (November 2016 lows), 1.2206 (local lows). Resistance levels: 1.2433 (local highs), 1.2505 (local highs), 1.2542 (local highs). Trading tips Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2443 with targets at 1.2505, 1.2542 and stop-loss at 1.2412. Validity – 1-2 days. Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2297 with the target at 1.2206 and stop-loss at 1.2322. Validity – 1-2 days.

UKBrent: general review Current trend During yesterday’s trading session, after it has tested the level of 58.44, the price of Brent crude oil fell by almost $3 per barrel, and at its lowest point towards the end of the session was trading near the level of 55.40. Most likely, such a serious decline was caused by a strengthening in the US Dollar amid the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics in the US. Market participants were selling oil futures that are expressed in Dollars. Today markets are waiting for the publication of the Weekly Crude Oil Stock by the American Petroleum Institute, due at 11:30 pm (GMT+2). Support and resistance The instrument is correcting after the sharp fall. The upward correction could continue to the middle MA of Bollinger Bands (56.77). Support levels: 55.79, 54.74, 53.55. Resistance levels: 56.49, 57.29, 58.44. Trading tips Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 56.77 with targets at 57.29, 58.44 and stop-loss at 56.40. Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 55.37 with targets at 54.74, 53.55 and stop-loss at 55.60.

XAU/USD: general analysis Current trend During the second half of 2016 the price of gold continued to steadily decline due to a stronger US dollar. Currently, however, the pair has already finished the movements triggered by Brexit and raised interest rates of the Fed. At the moment, there is concern on the market about the presidency of Donald Trump. In the near future he will have to convince the US Congress to allocate a large sum for the implementation of economic programs, and his new cabinet still has to go through the approval process in the Senate hearings. In this situation, these processes are likely to be long and exhausting, which may have a prolonged negative impact on the US currency, and strengthen the positions of precious metals. The current week is replete with important economic releases from the US. Today in the afternoon in the United States data on the index of gradual acceleration of inflation and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the ISM will be published. Projected growth of both indices will reflect the positive sentiment in the business environment and will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar. Support and resistance On the daily chart the pair is trading around strong support level of 1148.50. The indicator "Bollinger Bands" is directed downwards, whereas the price range is narrowing, which indicates the probability of a change of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the negative zone, its volumes are growing, keeping a weak buy signal. Stochastic has turned down at the border of the overbought area. Support levels: 1118.88, 1128.28, 1141.69, 1146.39. Resistance levels: 1159.14, 1172.55, 1180.60, 1188.65. Trading tips Short positions should be opened at the level of 1146.00 with the target at 1132.00 and a stop loss at the level of 1153.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days. Long positions can be set at the level of 1151.70 with Take Profit at 1166.50 and a stop loss order at the level of 1143.50. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

Brent: renew of maxima in the end of the year Current trend The Brent oil prices grew to the level of year maxima 57.00 on Wednesday, and it is trading there now. The growth is caused to the oil production countries confirmed their agreement on the oil production limitation. The Oil Ministry of Iraq confirmed that the country is ready to limit the oil production by 200-210K barrel in January. The Venezuela Oil Ministry confirmed the limitation by 95K barrel per day. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks change index is worth attention today. It is expected to decrease by 2060 million barrel. In this case the price can renew the year maxima and grow to the level of 57.70, 58.50. Otherwise the retreat to the level of 55.90 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and an upward fan line of Fibonacci 61.8%). Support and resistance Support levels: 55.90, 55.00, 54.90, 53.00, 51.70. Resistance levels: 57.00, 57.70, 58.50. Trading scenario Open long positions when the price has consolidated above the level of 57.00 with the target at 57.70 and 58.50. Stop loss is at 56.70. Open short positions below the level of 57.00 with the target at 55.90, 55.00 and stop loss at 57.40.

XAG/USD: general analysis Current trend Yesterday the pair was growing against the “thin” market and no key macroeconomical news. It couldn’t consolidate above the strong resistance level of 16.00, and the silver began to decrease again. Today the publication of the Pending Home Sales index can affect the market. The growth of the index above 0.5% will pressure the pair. Support and resistance On the daily chart the pair is trading in the narrow range of 15.85-16.05. The Bollinger Bands indicator has corrected downwards, as the price range has widened significantly, reflecting the high volatility of the continuing of the current trend. The MACD is in the negative zone, the volumes of the histogram are decreasing, keeping a sell signal. The Stochastic has reversed upwards near the border of the oversold area. According to the indicators, short positions are more preferable. Support levels: 15.82, 15.65, 15.47. Resistance levels: 16.16, 16.41, 16.66, 16.94, 17.20. Trading scenario Open short positions at the current price with the target at 15.45. Stop loss is at 16.05. Implementation period: 1-2 days. Open long positions at 16.15 with the target at 16.55. Stop loss is at 15.95. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

USD/CHF: the US dollar keeps growing Current trend In the beginning of the week the US dollar is growing against the Swiss franc, renewing a local maximum on December, 21. The market activity is still low due to the Ney Year and Christmas holydays. The traders prefer not to buy a risky currency, but consolidate the profit while trading stable ones. On Monday, 26, there were no significant macroeconomical statistics published, but on Tuesday there will be a lot of data from USA. The investors are interested in Business Activity and Consumer Confidence indices. Also the traders wait for the Redbook index and October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The nearest publications in Switzerland are due at Wednesday, December, 28, as the November UBS Consumption Indicator will be published. The data is based on 5 economic indicators of consumption: car sales, consumer confidence, retail sales, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays, credit card transactions volumes. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1.0290 (maximum on December, 21), 1.0318 (maximum on December, 20) и 1.0342 — maximum on December, 15. Support levels: 1.0271 (the nearest level), 1.0239 (minimum on December, 16), 1.0212 (maximum on December, 9), 1.0190, 1.0166, 1.0149 (the level of December, 4), 1.0123 and 1.0100. On the daily chart Bollinger Bands indicator is growing. The price range is narrowing, reflecting recent controversial trade dynamics. Stick to the channel trade strategy. The MACD is lowering, keeping the weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to close some of the short positions and wait for more trading signals. The Stochastic reversed again in the middle of its working area. The indicator doesn’t contradict with the further “bullish” development in short or very short term. Trading scenario Open long positions after the breakout of 1.0290, if the technical indicators don’t contradict with the «bullish» trend. Take profit is at 1.0342, 1.0350 or 1.0375. Stop loss is at 1.0250. Implementation period: 2-3 days. In case of reversal near the level 1.0290 it’s better to open correction short positions with the nearest target at 1.0200 or 1.0190. Stop loss is at 1.0320 or 1.0330. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

USD/JPY: pause before growth resumes Current trend The American Dollar continues consolidating against the Yen after a significant growth in November and the beginning of December. The Dollar fell due to profit fixation and the pair continues moving within the range of 80 points amid the lack of important fundamental news from the US or Japan. However, the Yen was slightly supported by yesterday’s decision on interest rates. The Bank of Japan left the rate unchanged, and in commentaries expressed some optimism noting a gradual economic recovery. Today extra attention needs to be paid to macroeconomic statistics from the US that could determine further pair’s dynamics. Data on the GDP, labour market and Durable Goods Orders is due. Support and resistance In the short-term, the price might fall to the lower border of the ascending channel at the level of 117.15 from where its growth will resume. Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. Bollinger bands are directed up while the upper line is at the level of 119.00, indicating the next possible target. MACD histogram is about to resume its growth in the positive zone. Support levels: 117.15, 116.50, 115.50, 114.80, 114.00, 113.15, 112.30. Resistance levels: 118.00, 118.25, 118.65, 119.00, 119.35, 120.05. Trading tips Long positions can be opened from current levels and from the level of 117.15 with targets at 119.00, 120.05 and stop-loss at 116.80.