LiteForexTeam

USD/CAD: general analysis Current trend Yesterday during the trading session the pair continued to grow and reached the maximum of 2017 year, despite the slight weakening of the USD against some of the main currencies such as GBP and EUR due to the weak USA employment market data publication. The Initial Jobless Claims value was higher than expected: 243K against 235K. Yesterday the oil prices were stable, so the CAD price was stable too. There are a lot of key releases today, which can influence the USD/CAD pair. The Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment data are to be published in the USA, and the Canada Unemployment Rate is expected too. Support and resistance On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the price range is widen, which reflects the development of the upward trend in the middle term. The MACD gives a signal to open long positions, the signal line has crossed the zero line downwards, and the histogram’s volumes are slightly growing. Support levels: 1.3485, 1.3430, 1.3370, 1.3320, 1.3245, 1.3185, 1.3095, 1.3000, 1.2915. Resistance levels: 1.3540, 1.3600. Trading scenario Open long positions at the current level with the target at 1.3540, 1.3600 and stop loss at 1.3460. Open short positions at the level of 1.3430 with the target at 1.3370 and stop loss at 1.3460. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

NZD/USD: technical analysis NZD/USD, D1 On the daily chart, the pair is trading below the lower line of Bollinger Bands and is about to form a sixth close outside of the range. The price remains below its moving averages that are turning down. The RSI keeps falling having entered the oversold zone. The Composite is trying to turn up as it approached its critical levels. NZD/USD, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is trying to turn up in the oversold zone having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics. Key levels Support levels: 0.6860 (December 2016 lows), 0.6815 (September 2007 lows), 0.6750 (February 2016 highs). Resistance levels: 0.6949 (July 2016 lows), 0.6970 (November 2016 lows), 0.7042 (October 2016 lows). Trading tips The price is testing its strong support level in the region of 0.6860. Its breakdown would allow the fall to continue, however, there is a high chance of an upward rebound. Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.6860 with targets at 0.6949, 0.6970, 0.7042 and stop-loss at 0.6840. Validity – 3-5 days. Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6840 with targets at 0.6815, 0.6750 and stop-loss at 0.6860. Validity – 3-5 days.

GBP/USD: general analysis Current trend From the last half of the past week the pair is consolidating in the narrow range within 1.2205-1.2300. There is no news or drivers to make the GBP/USD move in any directions in the nearest two days. However, taking into consideration the experts’’ fears about the UK and its economy and the GBP tendency to lower after every upward rebound, the pair will be traded in the narrow channel with the “bearish” dynamics till Friday. On Friday there are many macroeconomical releases to be published, which can cause high volatility in general and in the GBP/USD movement in particular: Consumer Inflation Expectations and Manufacturing Production data from the UK, the USA Labor Force Participation Rate: in case of strong data in can press the pair significantly. Support and resistance On the daily chart the pair is lowering along the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The indicator is reversing downwards, as the price range is widen greatly, which can reflect the development of the downward trend. The MACD histogram is near the zero line; its volumes are lowering, keeping a sell signal. The Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold area. During the following two days the pair will be traded within 1.2200-1.2300, so enter the market using Buy limit and Sell limit. Support levels: 1.2186, 1.2140, 1.2107. Resistance levels: 1.2261, 1.2328, 1.2371, 1.2418. Trading scenario Long positions open at the level of 1.2170 with the target at 1.2260 and stop loss at 1.2140. Implementation period: 1-2 days. Open short positions at the level of 1.2255 with the target at 1.2185 and stop loss at 1.2285. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

AUD/USD: general analysis Current trend As a typical commodity currency, the Australian Dollar was falling against the US Dollar all last week. On Friday, however, following oil and precious metals, it recovered part of the losses and returned to a strong resistance level of 0.7600. This week investors’ attention is going to be focused on the RBA decision on interest rates that is due to be released on Tuesday. Amid a substantial reduction in the Australian Trade Balance, which was mainly the result of the unfavourable for the export-oriented Australian economy strengthening in the national currency, and negative data on inflation that came out today the regulator, most likely, will keep the interest rate unchanged in order to weaken the AUD. Before the decision is published, however, the pair is likely to continue its upward correction. Today attention should be paid to data on Factory Orders from the US. Support and resistance Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490, 0.7420. Resistance levels: 0.7660, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830. Trading tips Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7660, 0.7780 and stop-loss at 0.7520. Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7660 with targets at 0.7600, 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7700.

EUR/USD: general review Current trend The EUR/USD pair is corrected after decreasing to 1.0493 as USD gains ground. The main event which will set the further rate dynamics is speeches of US FOMC's members, including Janet Yellen. It is possible that rate correction will continue while the market is waiting for the speeches. Hawkish comments can lead to another wave of buying the dollar and, consecutively, decrease EUR/USD rate. In addition to FOMC members' speeches, traders will pay attention to Markit PMI data for USA due at 16:00 GMT+2. Support and resistance On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators show that the rate is still being corrected. Bollinger Bands are narrowing. MACD histogram is in positive zone, its volume is gradually decreasing, signalling that correction is still going on. If the price consolidates above the upper border of Bollinger Bands (1.0540), this will mean that the upward trend is forming. If the price does not break out the level of 1.0540, the reversal and another testing of 1.0493 is possible. Support levels: 1.0493, 1.0452, 1.0392. Resistance levels: 1.0569, 1.0630, 1.0677. Trading tips Buy positions may be opened above 1.0569 with Take Profit orders at 1.0630 and stop-loss at 1.0545. Breakdown of the level of 1.0630 will open a way to 1.0453 for the pair. Sell positions would become relevant below 1.0493 with Take Profit orders at 1.0452, 1.0392 and stop-loss at 1.0523.

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar under pressure Current trend During this week, the pair was decreasing and currently reached its 2-month minimum at the level of 0.7100. Today, the pair is under pressure of the statements of the FOMC’s John Williams and William Dudley. Williams, FRB San Francisco President, stated that at FOMC should pay due attention to increasing the rate at the session in March. Dudley, Head of FRB New York, stated during his interview to CNN that the chances to increase the rates are much higher now. On the other hand, RBNZ President Graeme Wheeler contributed to weakening of the NZ dollar. During his speech in Auckland, he stated that, despite the national economy growth, it's too early to discuss raising interest rates above the current level of 2.0%, and more than that, another decrease might happen. Main domestic risks result from housing market instability, foreign risks result from a possibility of American administration implementing protectionist measures which may as well affect New Zealand. Support and resistance Technically, the pair is testing the key level of 0.7100 (Fibonacci retracements — 38.2%), and if it breaks through, it will decrease further to the level of 0.7000 (Fibonacci retracements — 23.6%) and to 0.6900. Indicators agree with this: Bollinger Bands and Stochastics are pointing downwards, MACD histogram went to negative zone. Turning upwards is possible if the price consolidates above 0.7175 (50.0% correction) and middle line of Bollinger Bands. The increase may continue to 0.7245 (61.8% Fibonacci retracements) and 0.7340 (76.4% Fibonacci retracements). Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900. Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7245, 0.7340. Trading tips In this situation, short positions can be opened if the price consolidates below 0.7100 with take-profits at 0.7000, 0.6900 and Stop loss order at 0.7130. If the price consolidates above 0.7175 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, long positions could be opened with take-profits at 0.7245, 0.7340 and Stop loss order at 0.7140.

Brent Crude Oil: long downward correction Current trend Crude oil price still consolidates within a narrow side channel, as the US dollar tendency is still unclear, and also because there is contrast of growing oil reserves in USA and reducing oil reserves in OPEC and major oil exporters. Technically, the price the pair reached the upper border of the upward channel, but it can't break the resistance, lacking catalyzing factors. Consolidation channel is narrowing, and a breakout is highly possible; all we have to do now is determining its direction. Let's consider all pros and contra and decide on the chances of these situations actually happening. At the moment, demand for US dollar is supported only by FRS statements of USA economy having strong perspectives and willingness to hike the rate soon, but economic indicators state the opposite. This means that USA macroeconomic data can influence the dollar price and, accordingly, crude oil prices. This week, attention should be paid to job market data, Markit Services PMI and of course Weekly Crude Oil Stock data. According to US Department of Energy, oil reserves continue to grow, which surely will influence the price. On the other hand, OPEC and major oil exporters dispel all doubts following the agreement to put freeze on crude oil stocks, and they even cut them. OPEC state that the agreement is very effective for stabilizing the global crude oil market. This agreement keeps the oil price at current high level. But we shouldn't expect fast growth: any violation of agreement or US key interest rate growing, and we'll see the oil quotes falling. This means that price is unlikely to decrease. Support and resistance Disregarding the upward trend, long downward correction is highly probable. In short term, short positions could be opened with targets depending on the dynamics: 45.40 if the market is highly volatile, and 47.70 if the market is tranquil. Technically, indicators don't give a clear signal due to low liquidity. Support levels: 54.70, 53.75, 53.10, 51.95, 49.50, 57.70, 45.40. Resistance levels: 56.75, 58.50, 60.00, 61.95. Trading tips In this situation, short positions could be opened at current level, with short Stop Loss order at 59.20 (above the upper border of the range) — and with targets at 45.40, 47.70.

AUD/USD: general analysis Current trend A decline in the Australian Dollar after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech last week was caused by the decision to keep an interest rate at the level of 1.5%. At the same time, in light of growing commodity prices the fall in the Australiana currency cannot be lasting. Today the pair slightly strengthened amid a publication of a number of macroeconomic releases in Australia. Most likely, it was supported by strong data on the Current Balance. Today extra attention needs to be paid to data from the US on the GDP, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence. However, as markets are waiting for today’s Donald Trump speech in Congress, volatility might remain low. Support and resistance Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490. Resistance levels: 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830. Trading tips Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7780, 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7630. Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7660 with targets at 0.7600, 0.7540 and stop-loss at 0.7700.

EUR/USD: general review Current trend The pair is trading in a narrow range of 1.0550-1.0610. Consolidation takes place due to the political and economic uncertainty in Europe and the United States. Euro is under pressure of the upcoming elections in France. If the candidate of the "National Front" party Marie Le Pen comes to power, France may withdraw from the Eurozone, which would significantly weaken the rate of EUR/USD. Dollar remains under pressure of political factors as well. Despite the fact that the US economy is recovering, and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee promise an imminent rate hike, there is uncertainty about future fiscal policy of the new US government. On Tuesday, President Trump will speak before Congress and present its "ambitious plan to reduce taxes." Today stats on orders for durable goods will be published in the US. According to the forecast, the indicator is expected to grow by 1.7%. In the case of negative data, the dollar is going to be weakened. Support and resistance On the daily chart the pair is moving within the descending channel and successfully gained a foothold below the level of 1.0610. MACD is below both zero and signal lines, its volumes are growing, the lines of Stochastic are pointing upwards. The indicators do not give a specific signal. Resistance levels: 1.0610, 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0750. Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0520, 1.0460. Trading tips Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.0650 with the targets at 1.0700 and 1.0750 and stop loss at 1.0610. Short positions will be relevant below the level of 1.0520, the goal – 1.0460, stop-loss – 1.0550.

XAU/USD: general analysis Current trend Yesterday the XAU/USD pair rose to a level of 1250.85, updating 4-month maximum, due to the release of weak US unemployment data. The number of initial claims month increased from 238K to 244K. The negative statistics on the labor market significantly reduces the likelihood of interest rate hike at the March meeting of the Fed. Thus, the market expectation regarding the imminent tightening of monetary policy is assessed as very low, which contributes to the strengthening of the precious metals. Today traders are waiting for the stats on new home sales in the US. The Head of the Fed has stated that the statistics on sales of new homes was an important element in the decision on the interest rate. Support and resistance On the daily chart, the pair is approaching the upper boundary of "Bollinger Bands" from below. Indicator is directed upwards, and the price range is narrow, indicating a high probability of change of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic is going to enter the overbought zone. Support levels: 1247.36, 1235.44, 1229.35, 1216.16. Resistance levels: 1256.53, 1264.87, 1272.49. Trading tips Short positions should be opened at the level of 1254.00 with the targets at 1243.00 and a stop-loss at the level of 1257.10. Implementation period: 1-2 days. Long positions can be opened at the level of 1257.50 with targets at 1264.70 and a stop-loss at the level of 1252.50. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

GBP/USD: general review Current trend The latest macroeconomic data from the UK showed some mixed signals. Despite yearly GDP growth forecast for 2016 was revised down from 2.0% to 1.8%, economists point out that it was largely attributed to lower North Sea oil production in the first half of 2016. The manufacturing and service sectors, however, continued showing strength and consumer spending remained strong. On the other hand, the recent figures showed that business investment and wages growth slowed that could be a result of Brexit uncertainty. Lower wages growth will likely lead to a fall in consumer spending that together with higher inflation could have a substantial negative impact on the Pound in the medium-term. Support and resistance The pair continues trading in a sideways channel. There is a chance the price will retest its February highs. On the daily chart, the RSI is testing its longer MA from below while keeps showing a Bearish behaviour. The Composite, however, failed its strong support level having formed a divergence with the price, suggesting a growth possibility. Support levels: 1.2365 (local lows), 1.2290 (November 2016 lows), 1.2197 (December 2016 lows). Resistance levels: 1.2506 (local highs), 1.2591 (local highs), 1.2695 (February highs). Trading tips Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2510 with targets at 1.2591, 1.2695 and stop-loss at 1.2476. Validity – 3-5 days. Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2365 with the target at 1.2290 and stop-loss at 1.2390. Validity – 3-5 days.

USD/JPY: general review Current trend The USD/JPY pair was growing during the trade session on Tuesday. This was caused by hawkish comments of some FRS officials. US stocks were growing too, which influenced dollar rate positively, putting pressure on the yen. The values of Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit PMI Composite turned out to be lower than expected. Nevertheless, the index values above 50 points show the overall economy growth, strengthening the US dollar. The pinnacle event of the week is release of FOMC meeting minutes. During the release, the market would probably experience high volatility. Support and resistance On the H4 chart, the pair was corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The MACD histogram is near zero line and has minimum volume, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line from below, which will be a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in neutral zone, near the oversold zone. If this border is crossed, this will be a signal to buy. Support levels: 113.00, 112.75, 112.30, 112.00, 111.65. Resistance levels: 113.50, 113.88, 114.41, 115.00, 115.50. Trading tips Long positions with targets at 113.80 and stop-loss at 112.80 may be opened at the current price. Short positions could be opened at the level of 112.80 with targets at 112.30 and stop-loss at 113.15. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

NZD/USD: the pair returns to the descending channel Current trend After the collision with the strong resistance level, the pair reversed and consolidated within the downtrend. The main catalyst for the trend change were recent statements of the Head of US Federal Reserve regarding a possible rise of interest rates in the near future. This week's economic calendar doesn’t contain major releases, so the pair will be affected by the trading sentiment. To date, trading sentiment is in favor of the US dollar. An alternative scenario in the short term would be the formation of sideways consolidation due to the lack of economic catalysts and decreasing demand. Support and resistance Technical indicators confirm the forecast of the fall: MACD shows a decrease in the volumes of short positions. Support levels: 0.7105, 0.7080, 0.7035, 0.7005, 0.6970, 0.6915, 0.6885, 0.6860. Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7310, 0.7370, 0.7400, 0.7445. Trading tips Building up short positions within the trend, entry point would be the current level, targets – 0.7035, 0.6860, stop-loss – 0.7180.

EUR/TRY: technical analysis EUR/TRY, D1 On the daily chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that start turning sideways. The RSI is testing its most recent support, and thus may be forming a “double bottom” reverse formation. The Composite begins diverging with the price. EUR/TRY, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that turned down. The RSI is growing having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well. Key levels Support levels: 3.8330 (local lows), 3.8081 (December 2016 highs), 3.7913 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Resistance levels: 3.9205 (local highs), 3.9547 (local highs), 4.0110 (local highs). Trading tips There is a chance of an upward reverse in the price. Long positions can be opened from the level of 3.9205 with targets at 3.9547, 4.0110 and stop-loss at 3.9015. Validity – 3-5 days. Short positions can be opened from the level of 3.8330 with targets at 3.8081, 3.7913 and stop-loss at 3.8454. Validity – 3-5 days.

NZD/USD: technical analysis NZD/USD, D1 On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are horizontal. The RSI turned down having failed its longer MA. The Composite, however, is growing. NZD/USD, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading just below the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 but above the SMA200 that turned horizontally. The RSI is about to test its longer MA. The Composite is falling having broken down its longer MA. Key levels Support levels: 0.7174 (local lows), 0.7054 (April 2016 high), 0.6983 (November 2016 lows). Resistance levels: 0.7254 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), 0.7315 (July 2016 highs), 0.7332 (local highs). Trading tips The price seems to have formed a new descending channel having bounced off its upper border. The fall could continue. Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7220 with targets at 0.7174, 0.7054 and stop-loss at 0.7254. Validity – 3-5 days. Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7254 with targets at 0.7315, 0.7332 and stop-loss at 0.7235. Validity – 3-5 days.

XAU/USD: general analysis Current trend Yesterday, gold was strengthened after the speech by Janet Yellen. In her speech, the head of the American regulator stressed that the next tightening of monetary policy depends directly on the statistics of labor market and real estate, as well as on the growth rate of inflation in the United States. At the same time Yellen highlighted the opinion of most members of the committee that delay of the interest rates raise would be unwise. In addition, precious metals received support from the news of resignation of Michael Flynn. The adviser of US President for National Security admitted that he discussed the sanctions against Moscow with Russian ambassador before Trump entered the office. This news may serve as growth driver for XAU/USD in the medium term, as now, market participants are afraid of failure of Trump's plans to reduce the tax burden and to increase budget expenditures. Today traders will pay attention to the publication of macroeconomic statistics on the US real estate, as well as on the US labor market. If both indicators will be positive for the US economy, the Fed will receive a strong signal to raise interest rates, which would support the dollar. Support and resistance On the daily chart, the pair is trying to gain a foothold above the level of 1236.00. The indicator "Bollinger Bands" is directed upwards, and the price range continues to expand, reflecting the continuation of the current trend. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, giving a buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the overbought area. Support levels: 1226.07, 1217.71, 1206.37, 1195.62. Resistance levels: 1236.66, 1247.57, 1258.32. Trading tips Long positions should be opened at the current price with the targets at 1240.70, 1244.30 and stop loss at the level of 1230.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days. Short positions can be set at the level of 1230.50 with take profit at 1219.00 and stop loss at 1237.80. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend Euro’s fall against the US Dollar that was happening since last week got a new impulse after the European Commission released its growth forecast on Monday. Despite being quite positive about the eurozone perspectives, the report highlighted a number of problems and uncertainties, such as GDP growth below expectations, upcoming negotiations with the UK about their departure from the EU, lack of clarity about intentions of the new Trump’s administration, as well as questions about the labour market and inflation. Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Trade Balance from the eurozone and Consumer Price Index from the US, and also to Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech that could substantially support the Dollar. However, with generally positive outlook for the eurozone, the recent decline in the Euro could be a search by large players for a good entry to purchase the pair. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0340, 1.0210. Resistance levels: 1.0650, 1.0707, 1.0820, 1.0930. Trading tips Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.0707, 1.0820 and stop-loss at 1.0520. Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0707 with the target at 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0760.

NZD/USD: general analysis Current trend During the last week the pair was lowering and lost about a half of the 2 months growth (more than 200 points). The decrease is a result of many factors. The first is the RBNZ decision to keep the interest rate on the same level of 1.75%, which is minimal for last 5 years. The lowering of the rate affects the national currency negatively. The second are the positive USD data: Initial Jobless Claims, which is better than expected, the Import Price Index (much better than the previous value and the growth of the Oil Rig Count, which reflects the increase in oil production, oil rice lowering and the growth of the USD. Yesterday and today the price continues to test the strong and important level 0.7170, the cluster of 38% and 50% Fibonacci from the whole range of the price movement during the last 3 years and the last falling wave. The reaction to this level will determine the price dynamic in the nearest perspective. Today the important issues are the USA Producer Price Index (expected to be lower than the previous value, which is negative) and Fed's Yellen Speech, which can affect the market greatly. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 0.7485, 07390, 0.7340, 0.7250. Support levels: 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7170. Trading scenario Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7250, 0.7340, stop loss is at 0.7130. Alternative scenario: in case of a downward breakout at 0.7170 open short positions with the target at 0.7100, 0.7050, stop loss is at 0.7220.

XAG/USD: technical analysis XAG/USD, D1 On the daily chart the pair is growing along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the trend is upward. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are slightly growing, the signal line crosses the histogram’s body upwards, giving a signal to open long positions. The Stochastic is moving alongside the border between the neutral and the overbought zone, giving no clear signal. XAG/USD, H4 On the 4-hour chart the pair is trying to rebound from the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The price range is widening, keeping the possibility of the further price growth. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a weak buy signal. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone on the border with the overbought zone. In case of an upward breakout the sell signal will be received. Key levels Support levels: 17.90, 17.55, 16.75, 16.25, 15.50. Resistance levels: 18.57, 19.10, 20.00. Trading scenario According to the technical indicators, it’s better to open long positions at the current price with the target at 18.50. Stop loss is at 17.60. Implementation period: 1-3 days. Open short positions at the level of 17.50 with the target at 16.80 and stop loss at 17.90. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

GBP/USD: the pair is in a state of equilibrium Current trend On Thursday, the pair lost about a hundred points, reaching the middle line of Bollinger bands at 1.2500. Strengthening of the dollar was due to the Trump’s intention to present his proposals for tax reform in the near future. During the election campaign, he has already promised to reduce the tax burden on the American middle class and businesses as well as to reduce the rate of income tax and change the scale of progressive taxation. Now the market is waiting for the promised performance. At the same time, yesterday the Head of the Bank of England Mark Carney didn’t mentioned monetary policy in his speech and could not provide support for the pound. Today's strong data on industrial production in the UK in December (+2.1% MoM and +4.0% YoY) also couldn’t help the British currency. Despite the fact that the British economy copes well with the consequences of Brexit, the pound has been falling since mid-January. Support and resistance From a technical point of view, the level of 1.2500 (middle line of Bollinger bands) is still the key level. Technical indicators do not give a clear picture: Stochastic turns up from the oversold zone, MACD histogram has low volumes, and the Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. Under these conditions, important level for the "bulls" would be 1.2530 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%), breakout of which would allow the price to go up to the upper boundary of the descending channel (1.2600), and further, to 1.2690. After consolidation below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the pair may continue to decrease to the levels of 1.2526 (38.2% correction) and 1.2345 (50.0% correction). Support levels: 1.2426, 1.2345 and 1.2265. Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2600 and 1.2690. Trading tips In this situation, long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2530 with the targets at 1.2600 and 1.2690 and stop loss at 1.2500. At the level of 1.2475 short positions would become relevant with the targets at 1.2426 and 1.2345 and stop loss at 1.2505.

EUR/USD: общий обзор Текущая динамика Пара EUR/USD в ходе вчерашних торгов предприняла попытку роста, однако закрепиться выше уровня 1.0713 ей не удалось, и курс скорректировался вниз. Отсутствие новостного фона, а также неопределенность в отношении экономической политики нового президента США определяют текущий боковой характер движения EUR/USD. Из макроэкономических событий, способных оказать влияние на курс EUR/USD сегодня, можно выделить статистику по первичным заявкам на пособия по безработице в США (15:30 GMT+2), а также выступление представителя ФРС США Чарльза Эванса. Если слова Эванса будут содержать намёки на возможное повышение процентной ставки на мартовском заседании, то в краткосрочной перспективе пара EUR/USD может попасть под давление. Уровни поддержки и сопротивления На 4-часовом графике гистограмма MACD расположена в отрицательной зоне, объёмы её постепенно сокращаются, однако чёткого сигнала не дают. Полосы Боллинджера демонстрируют небольшое схождение, указывая на относительное спокойствие на рынке. Уровни поддержки: 1.0699, 1.0622, 1.0588. Уровни сопротивления: 1.0713, 1.0754, 1.0797. Торговые сценарии Позиции на покупку открываем выше уровня 1.0713 с целями в районе 1.0754, 1.0797 и стоп-лоссом на уровне 1.0690. Позиции на продажу можно выставлять ниже уровня 1.0669 с целями 1.0622, 1.0588 и стоп-лоссом на уровне 1.0695.

AUD/USD: general analysis Current trend The AUD is trading in the upward trend against the USD. The pair has grown by more than 500 points and reached the key resistance level of 0.7700 in a month. The pair is moving due to the significant lowering of the USD against the negative USD fundamental background. During the last month the poor GDP, employment and key indices data were published. The Australia data made a positive impact on the pair. In the beginning of the week there was a downward correction to the lower border of the upward trend at 0.7610, but now it is consolidating above this level. Today the volatility lowered and the AUD is trading within the narrow sideway channel 0.7610-0.7645. In the short term the pair will either grow to the local maxima or will form a reversal figure. This week the USA employment data and the USA building sector data are worth attention. Support and resistance Technical analysis and the USA and Australia fundamental background show the potential of movement to the levels of 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7820. The alternative is a consolidation of the pair in the sideway trend 0.7700-0.7610 with the further reversal. After the last FRS meeting its members has spoken a lot about the interest rate rising in March, which can affect the investors’ moods. The lowering of the demand on the USD pressures the pair and can led it to the deeper correction. The technical indicators are giving a strong sell signal, the MACD keeps high volumes of the long positions, the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart is set near the local maximum at the level of 0.7820. Support levels: 0.7610, 0.7545, 0.7510, 0.7480, 0.7430, 0.7400, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7160. Resistance levels: 0.7645, 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000. Trading scenario Open long positions at the current level with the target at 0.7820 and short stop loss is at 0.7580, keeping in mind the growth from the lower border of the upward channel.

NZD/USD: general review Current trend During the Asian trading session, the US dollar strengthened against major currencies. The dollar has received support from the comments of Fed’s representative Harker, who made it clear that the regulator still might raise the interest rates at the March meeting. That’s why the NZD/USD pair dropped abruptly to the level of 0.7297. Today, the macroeconomic calendar contains no significant releases that could affect the dynamics of the NZD/USD. Investors are waiting for tomorrow's RBNZ decision of the interest rate (22:00 GMT+2) and following press conference (23:00 GMT+2). Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged at 1.75%. However, investors are more interested in the comments of the Head of RBNZ in a press conference, which could lead to an increase in the volatility of the national currency. Support and resistance On the 4-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed downward, indicating that the continuation of the current downward trend. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volume are decreasing, indicating the influence of the sellers. Support levels: 0.7290, 0.7243, 0.7183. Resistance levels: 0.7323, 0.7375, 0.7403. Trading tips Sell positions can be opened below the level of 0.7290 with the target in the area of 0.7243 and a stop loss at 0.7305. Breakdown of the 0.7243 level will open the way for the pair to the level of 0.7183. The formation of the upward movement will be obvious after the price consolidates above the level of 0.7323. In this case, buy position can be opened with the targets at 0.7375, 0.7403 and stop loss at 0.7295.

XAU/USD: general analysis Current trend Gold prices are growing against the mixed USA employment data, published on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls value grew to 227K in January from 157K in the previous month. The unemployment rate grew to 4.8% in January from 4.7% in the previous month. The mixed employment data and the uncertainty of the Trump’s economical policy press the USD, so the gold price could reach the level of 1225.17, but didn’t manage to consolidate above this level. Today there are no significant macroeconomical releases to influence the pair, so the correction to the level of 1215.17 with the fixing of the profit of the long positions is possible. Support and resistance Support levels: 1216.71, 1210.18, 1202.92. Resistance levels: 1225.17, 1233.12, 1240.00. Trading scenario On the 4-hour chart the Bollinger Bands indicator is pointed upwards, reflecting the activity of the buyers. Still the correction to the middle line (1215.17) is possible, as the price broke the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its’ volumes are rising, reflecting the development of the upward trend. The breakout at 1225.17 will signal the continuation of the growth. In this case open long positions above the level of 1225.17 with the target at 1233.12 and stop loss at 1223.17. Open short positions below the level of 1215.17 with the target at 1210.18 and stop loss at 1217.00.

USD/JPY: general analysis Current trend During the yesterday trading session the USD/JPY grew against the positive USA macroeconomical statistics. After testing a minimum in the area of 112.03, the pair has reached the level of 112.86 in the end of the trading session. The Initial Jobless Claims index, published yesterday, lowered to 246K WoW from 260K in the previous week. Nonfarm Productivity grew by 1.3% in the fourth quarter against the expected growth of 1.0%. The positive statistics makes the traders to expect the Nonfarm Payrolls data to be positive today. The index is expected to increase to 175K in January against 156K in the previous month. The expected values or the values above the expectations will support the USD/JPY in the short term and let the pair to grow to the level of 114.00. Support and resistance Support levels: 112.90, 112.56, 112.03. Resistance levels: 113.64, 114.00, 114.47. Trading scenario On the 4-hour chart the Bollinger Bands indicator is slightly converging, reflecting the development of the upward trend. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but its volumes are rising, reflecting the growth of the buyers’ activity. Open long positions after the price is set above the level of 113.23 with the target at 113.64, 114.00, 114.47 and stop loss at 112.95. Open short positions below the level of 112.90 with the target at 112.56, 112.03 and stop loss at 113.20.