riki143

GBP/USD: local bullish "Flag" 3/23/2017 There’s a flat, which is taking place near the broken downtrend. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2522 – 1.2547 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.2469 – 1.2438. We’ve got a “Flag”, so the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest resistance at 1.2522 during the day. If bulls be stopped by this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of a support at 1.2469 – 1.2438. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12975

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" pushing the price higher 3/23/2017 The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0828. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.0850 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards a support at 1.0797 – 1.0774. We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.0828. Also, we’ve got a “Thorn” and “V-Bottom” patterns, so bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0850 during the day. Considering a pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.0774 as a possible bearish target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12973

Morning brief for March 23 3/23/2017 Today the US Congress will be voting on a key healthcare reform bill which is seen by my market experts as a litmus test for the relationship between the White House and Congress. If the bill doesn’t pass, it could delay or reduce the scope for other policies, like tax cuts and massive infrastructure spending. So, now Donald Trump is “working hard for the money” (let me borrow this line from Donna Summer’s song, it fits best for the description of Trump’s efforts) to them spend them not on the Medicare/Medicate, but on the further development of the US economy. EUR/USD is trading sideways within the range of 1.0775/1.0825. The result of the latest French election poll with Macron beating anti-EU Le Pen offer a little boost to the euro – it edged a few ticks higher towards 1.0790. Short-term upward momentum is slowing down, so the quotes might slide towards the nearest supports at 1.0770, 0.0745 levels. If Trump fails to push through his healthcare bill, the euro might jump above the recent high at 1.0825. Data wise, it is going to be another quiet session with little data in the economic calendar. You would probably argue here saying: “look, how about Janet Yellen speech to be delivered at 2:45 pm MT time?” Well, I wouldn’t be so excited about it, as Fed Chair will address to the Fed’s Community Development Research Conference. There is no connection between kids and Fed’s monetary policy projections (the conference will be aimed at the economic future of children). USD/JPY dropped to 110.70 overnight. In the early hours of the Asian session, prices moved higher as political scandal dented investor sentiment. It concerns the alleged relationship of prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife with a Japanese nationalist education group that bought stated-owned land at undervalued prices to build an elementary school. The impact on the yen is still from this scandal is not clear. GBP/USD rose to 1.2475 in the course of the Asian session having remained unaffected by the news flow from London. There was an attack close to Britain’s Parliament which left 5 people dead and 40 injured. The attacker is believed to have been inspired by Islamist-related terrorism. In terms of economic data, you should focus your attention on the UK retail sales coming at 11:30 am MT time. NZD/USD is net changed on the session. On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its rate unchanged as it was projected by the markets. A neutral policy bias has been maintained. The technical outlook for the pair is neutral. It is expected to trade sideways between 0.6950-0.7090 for some more days. Aussie dipped to 0.7660 in the Asian session, but the consolidation phase is still in place. Only a sustained drop below 0.7600 will signal us about the restoration of the downtrend. There was no data flow from the region. The economy calendar is almost empty. Oil prices have finally rebounded to $51.01 after touching their lowest level ($49.70) since November when OPEC and non-OPEC members fabricated their output cut deal. A sharp downfall was caused by the official US data that showed US inventories grew by far more than it had been forecasted. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12972

AUD/USD: Aussie escaped the Shark 3/23/2017 On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears for the second time try to push the quotes out of the descending trading channel. If they succeed the target 113% in the "Shark" inverted pattern will unlikely be implemented. Aussie might develop the correction towards 0.7605 and lower. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, senior and junior Shark patterns are still relevant. There might be a rebound from the present levels, or from the level of 0.7560. Many things depend on the test of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel. A breakout of the resistance at 0.7683 will likely return the "bulls" to life. Recommendation: BUY 0,7685 SL 0,763 TP 0,777. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12971

GBP/USD: bulls must show their strength 3/23/2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, prices are trying to consolidate above the important level of 1.2485. If they succeed, the risks of the continuation of the rally towards 1.26 and 1.265 levels will increase. In contrast, a rollback followed by the return of the quotes to the borders of the downward trading channel will tell us about the realization of the 5-0 pattern. On the GBP/USD daily chart, buyers are preparing for the test of the March high. Activation of the AB = CD pattern will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 1.26. But if the buyers fail to gain a foothold above 1.25, it will lead to the implementation of the expanding wedge pattern. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12970

EUR/USD: wave 2 is going to end 3/23/2017 Wave 2 is taking form of a double zigzag. The main intraday target for wave [y] is +2/8 MM Level. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward impulse wave. There’s a developing bullish impulse in wave © of [y] on the one-hour chart. In this case, wave v of © is likely going to be continued. So, bulls will probably try to test +2/8 MM Level soon. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12967

EUR/USD: euro still under resistance 3/21/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0740, 1.0700; resistance – 1.0800/20. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0800; SL — 1.0820; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0700. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under a daily resistance; the market is overbought. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12934

EUR/USD: bulls took a break 3/21/2017 On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 1.0705-1.0785. A breakout of its upper border will increase the risks of continuation of the rally towards 1.086, and then, towards 1.104 (target 161,8% in the AB = CD pattern ). In contrast, a successful test of the support at 1.0705 can lead to the development of the correction towards 1.0635 and 1.06 levels. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the Dragon pattern was successfully implemented. At the present moment, there is a formation of the triangle. A successful test of its upper border and resistance at 1.0775 will open the way for the bulls to the north. "Bears" expect a drop of the quotes below the support at 1.072. Recommendations: BUY 1,0775 SL 1,072 TP1 1,086 TP2 1,104, SELL 1,0705 SL 1,076 TP 1,06. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12933

EUR/JPY: bulls are going to attack 3/21/2017 On the EUR/JPY daily chart, there is a transformation of the inverted "Shark" pattern into 5-0. The return of quotes to the level of 121.8 (23.6% of the CD wave) will increase the risks of recovery of the uptrend. In contrast, a successful test of the support at 120.65 can lead to the development of correction towards 120.5 and 119.95 levels. On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, 121.4 is the immediate resistance level. Its breakout will activate the inverted "Shark" pattern with the target of 122.45. A more secure entry point to BUY is the area of the upper boundary of the downward trading channel. Recommendation: BUY 122,8 SL 122,25 TP 123,8. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12932

Key option levels for Monday, March 20th 3/19/2017 * Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 68 625 ? + 364 591 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0764; 1.0790; 1.0826; 1.0867 Closest support levels 1.0740; 1.0698; 1.0659; 1.0635 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0740 (or from 1.0764), with target points at 1.0698 and 1.0659 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0764 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0790 and 1.0826 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 21 ? + 192 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2424; 1.2453; 1.2476; 1.2512 Closest support levels 1.2392; 1.2362; 1.2340; 1.2314 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2392 (or from 1.2424), with target points at 1.2362 and 1.2340 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2424 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2453 and 1.2476 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 94 ? + 156 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3353; 1.3378; 1.3417; 1.3472 Closest support levels 1.3321; 1.3298; 1.3275; 1.3240 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3353, with the target points at 1.3378 and 1.3417 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3321 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3298 and 1.3275 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12912

EUR/GBP reversed from resistance zone 3/17/2017 EUR/GBP reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 0.8630 EUR/GBP continues to fall inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.8800 (previous buy target), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp extended downward impulse from last October. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover. EUR/GBP is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.8630 (former strong resistance level which reversed the previous minor correction 2 in February). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12908

EUR/USD: wave (i) started 3/17/2017 It’s likely that wave [ii] ended on the four-hours chart. Therefore, if a pullback from 8/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have bearish wave (i). The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level. There’s a possible diagonal triangle in wave © of [ii]. So, bears are likely going to deliver wave i. If a pullback from 6/8 MM Level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a local upward correction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12907

USD/CAD: outlook for March 20-24 3/17/2017 USD/CAD slumped to 1.3280 after the FOMC meeting. The decline was short-lived, however. Towards the end of the week, the greenback revived its bullish momentum and rose to 1.3330. Next week we will be waiting for a number of economic releases: retail sales and inflation figures from Canada, existing home sales and current account data from the US. Canadian annual budget release might become an additional market trigger. Another focus will be on the Fed Chair Janet Yellen and FOMC officials’ speeches scheduled for Thursday and Friday respectively. At the present moment, USD/CAD is trading tightly near the 100-day MA (around 1.3300 level) consolidating after Wednesday’s impressive decline. A further support can be found at 1.3280 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud). If it is broken the quote will slide further towards 1.3215 (200-H4 MA), or 1.3115. A break of resistances at 1.3385/1.3420 will be a signal of the restoration of the uptrend. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12905

USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new local low 3/17/2017 here’s a bullish “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed. Also, the last candles are bearish, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction. The price is consolidating, so the upper “Window” is acting as a resistance. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a new local low during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12904

EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a support 3/17/2017 We’ve got a bearish “Tower” on the nearest resistance area. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement. There’s an “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to achieve the closest support and the 55 Moving Average, which both could be a departure point for another bullish rally. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12903

GBP/USD: outlook for March 20-24 3/17/2017 GBP/USD surged to 1.2390. The Bank of England left rates on hold, but its member Kristin Forbes voted for a hike thereby showing that policymakers becoming more and more concerned with a rise in inflation. Her vote surprised the market and made the pound rise. Post-FOMC weakness of the US dollar was another tailwind for the British pound. On the political front, Theresa May has finally received a formal permission to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to hold another referendum on the Scottish independence of the country was rejected by the UK Prime Minister who tries to avoid spreading the country’s resources between defending the British integrity and securing advantageous separation with the EU. This news offered additional support to the pound. Next week keep an eye on the UK CPI figures and retail sales coming on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. From the US, we will be waiting for the comments on the US economic outlook from numerous FOMC members, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech scheduled for Thursday accompanied by the UK retail sales and the US unemployment claims, as well as the US core durable goods orders on Friday. Technically, short-term indicators remain in neutral-bearish territory and might prompt a retracement towards immediate supports at 1.2350, 1.2290 (100-H4 MA) and 1.2210 (near 50-H4 MA). A break above resistance at 1.2430 (top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud, downtrend line) suggests a further uplift towards the resistances at 1.2480, 1.2500 and 1.2550. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12902

NZD/USD: outlook for March 20-24 3/17/2017 The kiwi dollar jumped to 0.7050 on Wednesday after Fed’s officials refused to accelerate the current pace of the monetary tightening. Towards the end of the past week, there was a pullback towards 0.6970. New Zealand’s annual growth rate slowed further despite surging immigration, low borrowing costs and evident activity in the housing sector. This casts doubt on the latest central bank’s projection that growth would accelerate to more than 4% by the second half of 2017. The main focus of the next week will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Most analysts expect the central bank to stay on hold adopting a wait-and-see approach. Ahead of the meeting, we will get an update of global dairy prices. Then we will be waiting for Thursday’s Fed Chair Yellen speech followed by the comments on the US economic outlook from other FOMC members. The technical outlook for the pair is neutral. NZD/USD might spend a few days in the consolidation phase before facing rather sturdy resistances at 0.7050 (38.2% Fibo retracement level from last year low), 0.7120 and 0.7140. A pullback below 0.6940 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased and the way towards the next support at 0.6915 (50% Fibo retracement level) is open. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12901

GBP/USD: technical analysis 3/17/2017 GBP, H4 Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2382, so the price reached a support at 1.2347 afterwards. Also, there’s a developing “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2411 in the short term. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this level be on the table, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible bearish target. GBP, H1 The price is consolidating along a support at 1.2347. Considering the last “Pennant” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2382 – 1.2411. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to approach a support at 1.2347 – 1.2315. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12900

EUR/USD: technical analysis 3/17/2017 H4 The price faced a resistance at 1.0774, so the pair is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0811. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0754 – 1.0732. H1 We’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0811 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to test the closest support at 1.0754 – 1.0732. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12899

Key option levels for Friday, March 17th 3/17/2017 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 70 513 ? - 4 036 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0790; 1.0812; 1.0840; 1.0865 Closest support levels 1.0776; 1.0753; 1.0712; 1.0672 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0776, with target points at 1.0753 and 1.0712 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0790 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0812 and 1.0840 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 149 ? - 78 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2361; 1.2387; 1.2407 Closest support levels 1.2319; 1.2296; 1.2269; 1.2238 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2361 (or from 1.2319), with target points at 1.2387 and 1.2407 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2319 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2296 and 1.2269 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bullish Changes in the open interest - 129 ? + 113 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3346; 1.3371; 1.3412; 1.3468 Closest support levels 1.3312; 1.3294; 1.3273; 1.3240 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3312, with the target points at 1.3294 and 1.3273 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3346 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3371 and 1.3412 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12898

NZD/USD: kiwi caught the crab 3/17/2017 On the NZD/USD daily chart, after the implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Bat" pattern, the "bulls" are trying to take the lead. Their goal is to return quotes to the boundaries of the upward long-term channel and restore the uptrend. It is too early to talk about this, however. But the development of correction towards the current downward trend is not ruled out. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the inverted "Crab" pattern is relevant. Its 161.8% target is located near the 0.714 mark. For its implementation, the "bulls" need to attack the resistances at 0.704 and 0.707 levels. Recommendation: BUY 0,704 SL 0,6985 TP 0,714. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12896

Morning brief for March 17 3/17/2017 The storm after the range of central banks’ meetings died down and a great calm has finally succeeded. USD was a little bit softer against its major peers in the recent session. The reaction to President Trump budget outline released yesterday was really muted. A “wish list” of spending requests for Congress wasn’t long. The US newsmen called it the skinniest skinny budget compared with the 40 years of presidential budgets. It was somewhat 53 pages long containing four slender tables. President Bill Clinton’s first budget document was 145 pages, while Obama’s was 1343 pages. There was no mentioning of “mandatory” spending on programs like Social Security or Medicare, projections about the incoming tax cuts, spending beyond 2018. It promised increase of spending on security and cuts on the international aid. US industrial production and consumer sentiments are the main data highlights for today. Another focus will be on President Trump and German Chancellor Merkel meeting in the White House. Many analysts believe that it’s going to be a friendly affair, unless Donald Trump takes a similar line to his trade advisor Peter Navarro constantly accusing Germany and other leading nations in currency manipulation. Also, there will be a commencement of G20 summit in Baden-Baden (Germany). US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will attend it. The event itself shouldn’t serve market participants lemons unless the US protectionism is not discussed and accusation of currency manipulation is not put on the agenda. The euro was an absolute gainer in the course of the last two days. EUR/USD jumped to 1.0770 after the election victory of Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and the debacle of the anti-EU leader Geert Wilders. The ECB Nowotny offered a substantial support to the euro having said that rate increase may be on the way. The ECB’s monetary policy model might differ from those that has recently been adopted by Fed. The European Central Bank can start with rate increases and only then turn to tapering its bond purchase program. Technically, the European currency can extend its earlier gains towards the resistance line at 1.0830. On the downside, a rather sturdy support that can be found near the 1.0700 level. Commodity currencies were higher in the Asian session. Aussie ticked up to 0.7685. AUD/USD undertone is clearly positive. The bulls may push quotes higher towards the next resistance at 0.7740. While the further uplift seems likely, the recent rally was so rapid that there might be a retracement towards the nearest supports at 0.7660/0.7615. USD/CAD moved higher to 1.3320 in the Asian session. The bears failed to break the strong support at 1.3280. On the upside, there is a resistance at 1.3420. Oil prices rose slightly supported by the weak US dollar. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12895

GBP/USD: pound wants to rise higher[//B] 3/17/2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, the implementation of the targets in the "Crab" and AB = CD patterns resulted in the rebound of the prices. After a short consolidation, the bulls launched the counterattack with the intention to test the upper boundary of the upward trading channel. If they succeed, the risks of the continuation of the rally towards 1.255 and higher will increase. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the inverted "Shark" pattern is still relevant. Its 78.6% and 88.6% targets are located near the 1.2475 and 1.252 levels. Most likely, the "bears" will try to protect these levels. Recommendations: SELL 1,2475 SL 1,253 TP 1,2315, SELL 1,252 SL 1,2575 TP 1,2315. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12894

USD/CHF reached sell target 1.000 3/16/2017 USD/CHF reached sell target 1.000 Next sell target - 0.9890 USD/CHF continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 1.0000, which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.0000 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3- which earlier broke the support trendline of the daily up channel from February (which enclosed the previous minor ABC correction 2). USD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.9890 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 in January, as can be seen below). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12892

AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.1000 3/16/2017 AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.1000 Next buy target - 1.1100 AUD/NZD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 1.1000, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast or this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.1000 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 which earlier broke through the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the key resistance level 1.0900 and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from September. AUD/NZD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1100. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned price level 1.1000. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12891