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EUR/USD: EURO SUPPORTED BY CLOUD 05:37 04.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0890; resistance – 1.0960. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0900/10; SL — 1.0880; TP1 — 1.0960; TP2 – 1.1000. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_euro_supported_by_cloud_865

BANKS FORECASTS AHEAD OF THE FOMC MEETING 12:35 02.05.2017 The Federal Open Market Committee will deliver its rate statement on May 3. Most analysts expect the FOMC to stay on. Current Target Rate probabilities for the Fed Meeting: 95.2% for leaving interest rate unchanged at 1%, and only 4.8% for the rate increase. Investors also may get some insight into the Fed’s plans to shrink its balance sheet. Here are some strategies/forecasts from major banks Barclays Barclays Capital Research expects the FOMC to leave its present monetary policy stance unchanged at its May meeting on Wednesday. The bank’s analysts forecast two additional rate hikes this year (in June and September) and balance sheet reduction towards the year-end (most likely in December). The Fed’s officials might acknowledge the recent soft economic data. If they mention probability of the imminent economic slowdown, it will be a signal that action in June might be off the table. USD will be hurt. Credit Agricole The bank’s analysts noted that the yen has weakened following the first round of the French Presidential election. They found out an important pattern for the JPY to watch going to the FOMC meeting this week. "The pattern for more than a year now has been for the JPY to strengthen post FOMC meetings, as they have tended to disappoint the hawkish rhetoric by FOMC members ahead of the meeting." This time the currency might not follow this pattern as there is less potential for disappointment around tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Societe Generale According to SocGen strategists, if the US dollar manages to keep at least a modest bid going to the FOMC meeting, there is a risk for USD/CAD to spike higher towards 1.40. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/banks_forecasts_ahead_of_the_fomc_meeting_825

EUR/USD: WAVE (III) NEARLY OVER 11:34 02.05.2017 The pair is still consolidating under 7/8 MM Level. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a new local high in the short term. Anyway, wave (iii) is likely going to end soon, which means we could have wave (iv) later on. As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (iii) is taking form of a double zigzag. Also, we’ve got a possible triangle in wave , so bulls are likely going to deliver wave [C] of y of (iii) during the day. At the same time, there’s a chance to have wave a or w afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_wave_%28iii%29_nearly_over_824

USD/JPY: BULLS GOING TO TEST "WINDOW" 11:23 02.05.2017 The price as approaching the upper “Window”, but we still don’t have any reversal pattern. So, if we see a pullback from the “Window”, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward correction towards the Moving Averages. The last candles are bullish, but the price has reached the nearest resistance, so we could have a local correction during the day. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the price even higher afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fjpy%3a_bulls_going_to_test_%22window%22_822

EUR/USD: BEARISH PATTERNS INSIDE STRONG RESISTANCE 11:17 02.05.2017 There’s a strong resistance area, where we’ve got bearish patterns such a “Tweezers”, a “Shooting Star” and a “Doji”. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement. The 34 & 55 Moving Averages are acting as a support on the one-hour chart. At the same time, there’re a bearish “Shooting Star” and a “Doji”, but both patterns have a quite weak confirmation. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If a pullback from this level be on the table, bears will have a chance to deliver a local decline. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_bearish_patterns_inside_strong_resistance_821

本周多个重磅事件来袭 市场将大幅波动 07:38 02.05.2017 美联储将于本周二至周三再度召开政策例会，虽然考虑到外部各方面因素的影响，美联储在此次会议上“背靠背”加息的几率基本为零，但这并非意味着会议决议本身就毫无看点。至少，美联储对经济现况的评估，以及对未来政策预期的透露，仍会是各界瞩目的焦点。基于美联储此前所给出的年内“至少再加息两次”的预期，市场分析人士继续认为此后的6月和9月两次会议将会是其关键政策行动节点。不过，当前各界的共识是，至少在5月初的这次会议上，美联储将会继续按兵不动，因为在本周会议之后，并没有美联储主席耶伦的政策讲话。不过，即使美联储在此次会议上刻意回避对未来政策路线的前瞻，分析人士也依旧认为其在此后的6月会议上会有50%以上的可能性会实现半年内第三度加息。 5月5日本周五晚上美国劳工部将公布4月非农就业数据，预计4月就业人数增加约19万人。不过，上个月的预估也大致位于20万左右，数据最终令人大失所望，仅增加了9.8万。从非农季节性图显示，过去十年里，4月非农数据通常好于3月份，并且较前值有明显的上升。即便考虑到天气因素，3月就业报告也表现异常疲弱。我们基于PMI的模型显示，市场将迎来另一份疲弱就业报告，就业人数将增加10万左右。不过，鉴于3月报告非常疲弱，预计4月数据将反映出这些数据将进行一些修正。因此，预计就业人数将增加17万，其中制造业增加1.5万，服务业增加14万。 本周热点相对较多，美联储利率决议，法国总统大选、非农、OPEC是否延长减产期限，都是市场有可能炒作的热点，投资者需要留意市场情绪的变化。今日重点关注中午发布的澳洲联储公布利率决议。 美元指数 上一个交易日美元指数维持震荡，目前交投于98.95。北京时间5月1日上午，据国会助理透露，美国国会已经通过了1.1万亿美元的临时综合支出计划，以便让美国政府维持运行到9月30日。这缓解了市场对于美国政府关门的紧张情绪，市场避险品种出现回落。在传出美国政府极有可能避免关门的消息后，市场马上体现出了乐观的情绪。本周风险事件主要集中于下半周，包括美联储5月利率决议、美国4月非农就业报告和周末的法国大选最终投票。技术面看，美指上周基本收平，在周线上收出低位十字星，日线上仍是横盘整理状态，本周美指或进一步下行，下方重要支撑位置在50周均线切入点98.40附近，建议逢高做空为主 。 欧元美元 上一个交易日欧元兑美元小幅收高，目前交投于1.0909附近。法国大选第二轮投票将于5月7日进行，但基于当前落差悬殊的民调状况，各界普遍认为“中间派”独立候选人马克宏当选已成定局。乐观人士预测，这位脱胎于法国两大传统主流政党之外的新总统可以闯出自己的一番天空。最新民调虽然显示勒庞在过去一周已经缩窄了与马克宏的民调差距，但离出现翻盘的可能性还相去甚远。在经济低迷的状况下，法国的就业市场也只能用惨不忍睹来形容。而无法兑现实现失业率大幅下降这一承诺的结局，也是该国现任总统奥朗德不得不心灰意冷放弃竞选连任的主因。技术面看，欧元上周在高位收出小幅阴线，但日线上形态整体偏强，后市或进一步上涨，上方重要阻力位置在1.10附近，建议逢低做多欧元。 现货黄金 上一个交易日现货黄金从高位1270大幅下跌至1261，目前交投于1263附近。现货黄金价格下挫，此前美元小涨，因美国国会谈判代表敲定一项支出计划，使联邦政府直到9月30日本财年结束前仍有资金可支用。美国国会一位高级幕僚上周日称，国会谈判代表已就支出达成一项两党协议，以使联邦政府直到9月30日，即本财年结束前仍有资金可支用。当地时间周日晚间，美国国会谈判人员就1.1万亿美元支出法案达成临时协议，以维持政府运行至9月30日。这份协议消除了政府在5月5日之后关门的风险。尽管金价第一季表现强劲，但银行仍对今年金价前景较为谨慎，因升息预期削弱黄金魅力。技术面看，黄金虽然在日内出现下跌，但日线上看，仍然出于横盘整理状态，而周线金价已经连续两周从高位下跌，本周大概率延续下跌走势，建议逢高做空为主。 More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/%E6%9C%AC%E5%91%A8%E5%A4%9A%E4%B8%AA%E9%87%8D%E7%A3%85%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6%E6%9D%A5%E8%A2%AD_%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E5%B0%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%B9%85%E6%B3%A2%E5%8A%A8_818

OIL MARKET OVERVIEW 09:05 02.05.2017 Oil prices dropped to $50.40 on last Thursday following the restart of two key Libyan oilfields which can produce nearly 400K barrels per day. Libya is exempted from the OPEC output cut agreement. So, increased crude output of this country would offset efforts by OPEC members and other larger crude producers to cap a global oil glut. Brent oil futures extended their losses on Friday after Baker Hughes showed a rise in US oil rigs for a 15th week in a row. Rising US oil production is one of the biggest headwinds for oil prices in the medium term. In 2016, US shale companies reached the break-even point at prices of $30-40 per barrel, so, no wonder we see how the production of shale oil is growing. The breakeven cost per barrel, on average, to produce Bakken shale at the wellhead has fallen to $29.44 in 2016 from $59.03 in 2014, according to Rystad Energy consultancy. The only thing that might stem a nagging growth of the US oil industry is the shortage of natural resources. There is a great problem of exploration of new deposits. Donald Trump had recently signed an order allowing expansion of drilling activities to remote places such as the Arctic. But this will unlikely encourage shale oil producers to launch a range of new offshore projects, as they are very costly. The shortage of US oil resource might be supportive of oil prices in the longer term. At the present moment, the data indicating a revival in the US oil industry will continue exhibiting a certain degree of pressure on the oil prices. In May, investors will closely monitor the process of negotiation on the extension of the OPEC-led output cut agreement. OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo in his recent comments said that efforts to get a consensus on the deal extension before the Vienna conference in May are under way. He also suggested that the supply cuts were rather effective in keeping oil prices above $50 and curbing global crude inventories. Therefore, additional deeper cuts are needed to reignite oil price rally through the mid $50-barrel level. In the next few days, traders will be waiting for the American Petroleum Institute (API) report on the number of US crude and refined product stocks and for the official figures from the Energy Information Administration coming on Wednesday. A substantial drop in the US stockpiles will be a tailwind for oil prices. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil_market_overview__819

GBP/USD: GAP GOING TO ACT AS RESISTANCE 06:59 02.05.2017 We’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2945 – 1.2964. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to reach the next support at 1.2865 – 1.2816. The 55 Moving Average has acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the pair is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.2935 – 1.2952. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2865 – 1.2844. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fusd%3a_gap_going_to_act_as_resistance_817

EUR/USD: BULLS GOING TO TEST LAST HIGH 06:55 02.05.2017 The price is still consolidating under a resistance at 1.0951. Also, there’s a possible “Triple Top”. However, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0933 – 1.0951 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0819 – 1.0729. There’s a consolidation, which is taking place above the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.0933 – 1.0951. Meanwhile, this area could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of the 89 Moving Average. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_bulls_going_to_test_last_high_816

USD/CHF: BULLS ARE PREPARING FOR BREAKOUT 06:42 02.05.2017 On the USD/CHF chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 0.9915-0.9975. A break of its upper or lower borders does not guarantee a restoration of the trend. The resistance is located near parity level. For the continuation of the rally and the implementation of the targets of the "Wolf Waves" and the "Shark" patterns, the bulls need to test the following resistance. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the expanding wedge is in the process of formation. A necessary condition for its implementation and restoration of the uptrend is a breakout of resistance at the parity level. Recommendation: BUY 1,0000 SL 0,9945 TP 1,02. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fchf%3a_bulls_are_preparing_for_breakout_815

EUR/USD: EURO IS TRADING IN CONSOLIDATION RANGE 06:41 02.05.2017 On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 1.085-1.095. A break of its lower border can lead to the realization of the "Three Movements" pattern and correction towards 1.077. In contrast, a successful test of the upper border of the range can lead to the continuation of the rally towards the 1.091-1.102 convergence zone. There is an intersection of long-term downward and medium-term upward trading channels. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the bulls need to be cautious with trading breakouts. There is a 200% target of the AB = CD pattern near 1.1020. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_euro_is_trading_in_consolidation_range_814

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 2 06:26 02.05.2017 A belated happy Labour day, dear traders! We bet you were trading with zeal and special ardor yesterday! Here are the latest news and market moves of today’s Asian session. AUD/USD spiked to 0.7540 after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. No sign of cut nor a hike has been registered. The statement was neutral maybe with a slight hawkish bias. There is a room for further extension towards firm resistance at 0.7600. USD/JPY has spent the Asian session in a very narrow range; it edged up to 111.88 but has still not pierced 112. It seems that upward momentum is not as strong as preferred. To strengthen it quotes should hit 112.20. A clear break of the following level will improve the odds for further extension towards 112.90. The concerns about North Korea nuclear testing have lessened. Donald Trump opened the door to meeting North Korea’s young leader Kim Jong Un. EUR/USD posted a modest gain in the Asian session having risen above 1.0920. The quotes are moving mostly sideways, as bulls lost their momentum. So, the odds for breaking 1.1000 have seriously diminished. Most likely EUR/USD will continue its rangebound movement in the upcoming sessions. A stop loss can be placed at 1.0820 (last Monday low). Emmanuel Macron is still seen as the front-runner over Marin le Pen in the second round of the French presidential race (scheduled for May 7). Today’s focus will be on the EZ countries’ Manufacturing PMI. USD/CAD slipped a few points in the Asian session. At the present moment, the pair is hovering near 1.3665. Loonie might continue strengthening against USD especially after FOMC meetings (the members will likely vote for staying on hold at the tomorrow’s meeting). Brent oil futures held weaker on Tuesday following the weak survey on manufacturing in China and revival of the Libya’s crude oil industry. Today, investors will be waiting for the American Petroleum Institute’s report on the US crude and refined product stockpiles. A drop in inventories will be supportive for the oil prices. GBP/USD rose above 1.2900 in the course of the Asian session. The odds for further extension at least towards 1.3000 are quite high. A slowing domestic economy and upcoming UK election temper prospects of sustained upside though. A disappointing headline of today’s manufacturing PMI out of the UK might send the pound lower towards 1.2750, 1.2610 levels. Kiwi lost its ground in the morning trading session. NZD/USD slid to 0.6910. A move below 0.6850/55 will be a signal of bears’ strength. A break of the resistance at 0.6965 will be a good sign for us to adopt a bullish stance. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_2_812

AUD/USD: BULLS UNDER PRESSURE OF CLOUD 05:19 02.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7500, 0.7450; resistance – 0.7550. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7540; SL — 0.7560; TP1 — 0.7500; TP2 — 0.7450. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a new weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under strong resistance of the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud%2fusd%3a_bulls_under_pressure_of_cloud_809

EUR/USD: EURO MAY GO HIGHER 05:18 02.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0900; resistance – 1.0960. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0900/10; SL — 1.0880; TP1 — 1.0960; TP2 – 1.1000. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_euro_may_go_higher_808

AUD/NZD REACHED BUY TARGET 1.0850 15:44 01.05.2017 AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0850 Next buy target - 1.1020 AUD/NZD continues to rise inside the intermediate corrective wave (2) – which earlier broke through the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.0850 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from March. The breakout of this resistance zone intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair. AUD/NZD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.1020 (top of the previous primary ABC correction ② from March). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud%2fnzd_reached_buy_target_1.0850_801

EUR/AUD REVERSED FROM STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL 1.4640 15:43 01.05.2017 EUR/AUD reversed from strong resistance level 1.4640 Next sell target - 1.4300 EUR/AUD continues to decline after the earlier downward reversal from the strong resistance level 1.4640 (which also revered the pervious intermediate ABC correction (4) in December, as can be seen from the daily EUR/AUD chart below). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.4640 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.4640 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Stat Doji. EUR/AUD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.4300 (previous powerful resistance level from March). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2faud_reversed_from_strong_resistance_level_1.4640_800

EUR/USD: BEARS READY FOR WAVE (IV) 13:52 01.05.2017 Wave (iii) has been ended on 7/8 MM Level, so there’s time for a correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in wave (iv) shortly. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave © of [c] of 2. We’ve got a double zigzag in wave (iii) and a lot of pullbacks from 7/8 MM Level. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a downward wave a or w in the coming hours. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_bears_ready_for_wave_%28iv%29_796

USD/JPY: "WINDOW" GOING TO ACT AS RESISTANCE 10:20 01.05.2017 The last bullish “Harami” led to a new high. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward correction. The lower “Window” has acted as a support, so we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the upper “Window”. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fjpy%3a_%22window%22_going_to_act_as_resistance_792

EUR/USD: "SHOOTING STAR" LAUNCHED CORRECTION 10:16 01.05.2017 The price has tested the nearest resistance ones again. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the lower “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have another bullish rally. The 34 Moving Average is acting as a support. At the same time, we’ve got a “Doji”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, the price is likely going to test the closet resistance, which could be a departure point for a local decline. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_%22shooting_star%22_launched_correction_791

GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" STOPPED BULLS 10:10 01.05.2017 Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2945, so we’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed by the last “Exhaustion Gap”. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline in the direction of the closest support at 1.2865 – 1.2816. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.2865 – 1.2913. We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. However, the price faced a support at 1.2900, so bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2935 – 1.2952. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to reach the closest support at 1.2865 – 1.2844. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fusd%3a_%22double_top%22_stopped_bulls_790

EUR/USD: POSSIBLE "TRIPLE TOP" 09:59 01.05.2017 The price is still consolidating under a resistance at 1.0951. Also, there’s a developing “Triple Top”. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0819 – 1.0729, which is near the last “Breakaway Gap”. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0851. There’s a “V-Top”, which led to a consolidation between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.0910. At the same time, we’ve got a “Flag”, so bears are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0882. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_possible_%22triple_top%22_788

USD/CAD REACHED BUY TARGET 1.3600 15:32 28.04.2017 USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3600 Next buy target - 1.3800 USD/CAD has been under bullish pressure lately – after the earlier breakout of the powerful resistance level 1.3600 (which reversed the previous waves 3 and (A) and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 1.3600 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and © – which belong to the primary ?-wave from last year. USD/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.3800 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fcad_reached_buy_target_1.3600_783

GBP/CAD BROKE RESISTANCE LEVEL 1.7540 15:31 28.04.2017 GBP/CAD broke resistance level 1.7540 Next buy target - 1.8000 GBP/CAD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor accelerated impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave from the start of April. The price earlier broke through the three consecutive resistance levels: 1.7100, 1.7240 (two previous buy targets) and 1.7540 (which reversed the previous waves 4 and (2)) GBP/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.8000 (former key support level from June). Buy stop-loss can be placed below 1.7540. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fcad_broke_resistance_level_1.7540_782

EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 1-5 13:14 28.04.2017 EUR/USD opened the week with a bullish gap on the news that a pro-European candidate Emmanuel Marcon won the most votes in the first round of French presidential election. In the second round of the vote on May 7 Macron is expected to win against the Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen. Already at this point, many think that the European political risks have diminished. This is a bright spot for the euro. Among other important things, we have to mention the European Central Bank’s meeting. The ECB left monetary policy unchanged. President Mario Draghi pointed out that euro zone’s recovery was increasingly solid and downside risks had diminished. On the other hand, he underlined that removal of the bank’s easing bias was not discussed, stressing the fact that inflation remains too low. This ambiguous statement led to a mixed response from the euro: the single currency declined, but later managed to pare the losses. The European economic calendar for the upcoming days is light, there are only events of medium and low importance. Among them, pay attention to the region’s preliminary Q1 GDP. Main drivers for EUR/USD will come out of the United States, where will be a lot of market-moving releases, the Federal Reserve’s meeting, and some political news. EUR/USD keeps attacking this year’s resistance line. A weekly close above the 50-week MA in the 1.0900 area will be a positive sign. The next obstacles for the bulls lie at 1.0995 (100-week MA) and 1.1057 (bottom of the daily Cloud). A significant weakness of the US dollar may bring the pair up to 1.1150. Support is at 1.0825 and 1.0770. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_outlook_for_may_1_5_777

US DOLLAR: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 1-5 12:53 28.04.2017 The US dollar opened the week with a bearish gap formed on the first round of French presidential election. Donald Trump has lived through the first 100 years of presidency. His tax plan has disappointed investors with its lack of details. In addition, the markets are skeptical that any comprehensive tax changes will be approved by the Congress. Canadian dollar and Mexican peso strengthened versus their US counterpart on the news that the United States doesn’t immediately plan to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement. As for the geopolitical tensions, Trump said that a major conflict with North Korea is possible, but he would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute. There may be more headlines on this topic in future. In the meantime, US GDP growth has slowed down to 0.7% in the first quarter. American economic calendar is packed with important events. On Monday, we’ll hear from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The US will release core PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, as well as ISM manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday don’t miss ADP non-farm employment change and ISM services PMI. In addition, there will be a meeting of the Federal Reserve. The press conference is not scheduled and the market is not expecting a rate hike. On Thursday, the US will release unemployment claims, trade balance, and factory orders. Then there will be the first Friday of the month, which is usually volatile because of NFP release. The US dollar index held above the 50-week MA at 98.45, but is now below the former support line from 2016 lows and below 200-day MA. Return above 99.30 is needed for the bulls to return. The next stops will likely be 100.00 and 100.45. Otherwise, bearish pressure will intensify with the greenback remaining vulnerable for a decline to 97.55 (100-week MA, July 2016 highs). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/us_dollar%3a_outlook_for_may_1_5_776