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MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 25 05:53 25.05.2017 The US dollar dropped against many major currencies on less hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Overall Fed’s policymakers seemed content to hike rate at the coming meeting in June if US economic information came in about in line with their expectations. The minutes also signaled that policymakers prefer a gradual reduction in their massive balance sheet. The Committee proposed the central bank set a cap on the amount of bonds that would be allowed to run off each month, initially determining it at a low level and then raising gradually every three months. Right after the FOMC minutes the 100-year US Treasury yield declined to 2.255% from Wednesday’s high at 2.295. The euro rose higher to 1.1235 despite passive comments from ECB’s members which bring into question the recent long positioning. Solid performance in EZ economic activity and risk reduction after the French presidential election might force ECB to shift their language at the upcoming meeting in June. Yesterday ECB’s policymakers released their latest Financial Stability report along with the ECB President Draghi’s speech in which he downplayed the side effects from negative rates and claimed that there is no reason to deviate further from the indications he provided in his April introductory statement. The yesterday’s recovery from the 1.167 low is lacking in momentum, and the odds for extension towards 1.3000 are still not high. Most likely, the pair will be trading sideways within 1.1160 – 1.2670 levels. Aussie came temporarily unhinged on the China’s credit rating downgrade as market participants use Aussie as a proxy for China risk. Then, it managed to recoup some of its losses amid broad USD weakening. In today’s Tokyo session, the pair slipped few points. Now, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.7500 mark. As long as 0.7430 is not touched we still anticipate a move higher towards 0.7560. USD/JPY hardly moved on the session. It’s now at 111.65 and expected to trade sideways in the short-term. Kiwi rose to 0.7050 in the course of the Asian session. A further upsurge towards key resistance at 0.7090 is not ruled out. USD/CAD sunk to 1.3390 level after the Bank of Canada was more upbeat about the economy than traders had expected. Brent oil futures were trading higher at $54.45 ahead of the start of the OPEC meeting in Vienna. Most likely OPEC producers will extend their agreement into the first quarter in attempt to drain persistent global supply. As we have OPEC meeting on the agenda, the oil prices might rise higher and send USD/CAD lower towards the support at 1.3380, or even lower towards 1.3350. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_25_1241

GBP/USD: MARKET SUPPORTED BY CLOUD AGAIN 04:24 25.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2960; resistance – 1.3070. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.2980; SL — 1.2960; TP1 — 1.3070; TP2 — 1.3150. Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud; horizontal Senkou Span A, but rising Senkou Span B; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen over the Cloud; the prices are supported by Cloud and may go higher. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_market_supported_by_cloud_again_1235

EUR/USD: BULLS LOOKS STRONG 04:23 25.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.1200; resistance – 1.1250, 1.1300. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.1210/00; SL — 1.1180; TP1 — 1.1250; TP2 – 1.1300. Sell — 1.1310; SL — 1.1330; TP1 — 1.1120; TP2 – 1.1080. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Kijun-sen; the prices are under daily resistance 1.1250-1.1300. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bulls_looks_strong_1234

USD/JPY: BULLISH "HAMMER" 13:23 24.05.2017 We've got a bullish "Hammer", which has been confirmed. Also, there's a "Doji" on the 144 Moving Average, but this pattern remains unconfirmed. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest support level shortly. We've got bearish patterns such a "High Wave" and a "Harami", so we could have a correction in the direction of the lower "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bullish_%22hammer%22_1226

EUR/USD: BEARISH PATTERNS 13:19 24.05.2017 We've got bearish patterns such a "Tower" and a "High Wave", which both have confirmation. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average in the short term. There's a "High Wave" pattern, which has formed on the 34 Moving Average. Considering confirmation of this pattern, we could have a local correction towards the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bearish_patterns_1225

EUR/USD: BEARISH IMPULSE ARRIVED 09:17 24.05.2017 We've got a pullback from 8/8 MM Level, so a double zigzag in wave [y] of 2 may have been formed. Therefore, we could have bearish wave (i) in the short term. In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday target. There's a downward impulse in wave ii, so bulls are likely going to deliver a local correction. However, if we see a pullback from 8/8 MM level, there'll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave iii of (i). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bearish_impulse_arrived_1224

GBP/USD: TWO "THORN" PATTERNS 07:00 24.05.2017 The price is consolidating along the 34 Moving Average. It's likely that the market is going to achieve the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an option to have an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3057 - 1.3090. We've got two "Thorn" patterns, so the price is consolidating. The 89 Moving Average is acting as support, but bears are likely going to test support at 1.2945 - 1.2913 in the coming hours. Nevertheless, if we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to achieve resistance at 1.2988 - 1.3023 More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a__two_%22thorn%22_patterns_1223

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PUSHED PRICE LOWER 06:57 24.05.2017 We've got a "Double Top" pattern, so the price is consolidating. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1139 - 1.1103. If a pullback from this area happens, we could have another bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307. The last "Double Top" pushed the price lower, so bears meet with support at 1.1171. Also, there's a "Flag" pattern, so the pair is likely going to get support on the 89 Moving Average. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this line, bulls will have an opportunity to reach the closest resistance at 1.1249 - 1.1267. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22double_top%22_pushed_price_lower_1222

USD/CHF: BEARS SAW A DRAGON 06:22 24.05.2017 Recommendation: BUY 0,9765 SL 0,971 TP1 0,985 TP2 0,9895. On the USD/CHF daily chart, quotes reached the lower border of the downward trading channel and rebounded from support located at 0.9715 (78.6% of the last upward wave). These factors increase the risks of correction towards the medium-term downtrend (towards 0.985). On the USD/CHF hourly chart, there is a formation of the Dragon reversal pattern. A break of the resistance at 0.9765 can lead to the continuation of the rally and the formation of the Dragon's head. The Bat pattern that lies in the basis of the current reversal helps us to identify the current the interim target at 0.9815. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf%3a_bears_saw_a_dragon_1219

EUR/USD: EURO CAUGHT THE BAT'S TAIL 06:20 24.05.2017 Recommendation: BUY 1,108 SL 1,1025 TP1 1,121 TP2 1,13. On the EUR/USD daily chart, the target 88.6% of the "Bat" pattern was fulfilled. As a result, the risks of correction towards 1.113 (61.8% of the last downward medium-term wave) and 1.108 (the upper border of the previous upward trading channel) increased. The trend is still bullish, so rollbacks can be used for opening long positions. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is a break of the lower border of the upward trading channel. A successful test of the support at 1.1165 will lead to the activation of the Shark pattern with a target of 1.108. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_euro_caught_the_bat%27s_tail_1218

Key option levels for Wednesday, May 24th 24/05/2017 If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form. USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 381 ? + 95 ? Closest resistance levels 111.96; 112.27; 112.85; 113.29 Closest support levels 111.48; 111.15; 110.86; 110.50 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 111.96, with target points at 112.27 and 112.85 Alternative scenario Moving below 111.48 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.15 and 110.86 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 339 ? - 1 010 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3541; 1.3565; 1.3604; 1.3659 Closest support levels 1.3515(08?); 1.3486; 1.3463; 1.3426 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3541, with the target points at 1.3565 and 1.3604 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3515 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3486 and 1.3463 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/13194

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 24 06:17 24.05.2017 The USD strengthened in Tokyo morning against its major peers due to rising 10-year Treasury note yield climbing 3 basis points overnight. The news that Trump asked intelligence directors to deny any collusion between his election campaign and Russian entities is no longer fresh one. The US political wrangling has stopped pressuring the greenback. Investors are now turning their focus towards the FOMC meeting minutes which are due at 9 pm MT time. You should pay closer attention to the phrases mentioning the pace of interest rate increases and to discussions about how to wind down the Fed’s balance sheet. A June hike still looks like as a base case scenario with investors pricing it at 83.1%. If there are some doubts over further upsurge in inflation rates, the USD will be hurt. The euro lost its momentum and nudged away from its recent high of 1.1268 that was hit the previous day following the solid PMIs releases from the euro area. The German Ifo business climate spiked to a new all-time high. Europe’s composite PMI reading was unchanged at 56.8 suggesting that there were some offsetting weaknesses in the releases of other EZ countries. Germany will release its consumer confidence reading at 9 am MT time; the ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak at 3:45 p, at the First Conference on Financial Stability in Madrid. At the present moment, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1180. The odds for upsurge towards 1.3000 are not high, but the bullish phase in the pair is still intact. The British pound recouped some of its losses obtained in the wake of the suicide bombing in Manchester. GBP/USD edged up a few points higher (to 1.2975). The current mild downward pressure may send GBP towards 1.2920. A hike above 1.3000 will allow us to target 1.3050. For the present moment, the technical outlook is neutral. AUD/USD dropped to 0.7445 after the Moody’s announcement downgrading China’s sovereign rating to A1 from Aa3. China’s massive debt had been at the center of concerns among economists. The downgrade warns us about slowing economic growth in the People’s Republic of China. Additional pressure came following the disappointing release of the Australian construction work done data. Iron ore prices were also lower in China today. USD/CAD was trading higher at 1.3535 from yesterday’s low at 1.3452. Today’s focus will be on the Bank of Canada’s official rate announcement. The central bank is unanimously expected to stand pat tonight, but with core CPI trending lower we expect the bank will remain its easing bias. The oil prices were under pressure yesterday weighed down by Trump’s plan to sell off some of the US crude oil stockpiles to generate revenue and balance the deferral budget. OPEC members will meet in Vienna on Thursday to discuss a further extension of the output cut agreement from just the first half of this year towards the first quarter of 2018. The main focus will on whether OPEC extends the period of their pledge to cut production by six or nine months. Kuwait’s oil minister said yesterday that there is no unanimous agreement among OPEC producers for a nine-month extension. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_24_1217

USD/JPY: BULLS TOOK OFFENSIVE 05:14 24.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 111.30, 110.15; resistance – 112.20. Trade recommendations: Buy — 111.60; SL — 112.40; TP1 — 112.20; TP2 — 113.20. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bulls_took_offensive_1216

AUD/USD: MARKET RETURNED INTO CLOUD 05:13 24.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7400/10; resistance – 0.7450. Trade recommendations: Sell — 0.7440; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7340; TP2 — 0.7310. Buy — 0.7460; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7520; TP2 — 0.7560. Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_market_returned_into_cloud_1215

EUR/AUD REVERSED FROM RESISTANCE LEVEL 1.5060 16:49 23.05.2017 EUR/AUD reversed from resistance level 1.5060 Next sell target - 1.4900 EUR/AUD recently reversed down from the powerful resistance zone lying between the major, multi-month resistance level 1.5060 (which reversed the price in the middle of September) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. If the pair closes today near the current levels it will then form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji. Given the strongly overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/AUD can be expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.4900 (former resistance level from the start of May). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_aud_reversed_from_resistance_level_1.5060_1207

USD/CHF BROKE SUPPORT ZONE 16:48 23.05.2017 USD/CHF broke support zone Next sell target - 0.9670 USD/CHF continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 0.9750 (sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the support trendline of the wide daily down channel from the start of March. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3. USD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.9670 (target price calculate for the completion of the active impulse wave 3). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf_broke_support_zone_1206

EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 8/8 MM LEVEL 12:37 23.05.2017 The price is trying to form a pullback from 8/8 MM Level, so wave [y] of 2 may have been ended. In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM as a local bearish target. Bulls couldn't fixate above 8/8 MM Level, so there's time for a correction. Therefore, wave © of [y] likely finished. The main target for wave (i) is 6/8 MM Level. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_pullback_from_8_8_mm_level_1205

USD/JPY: BULLISH "HAMMER" STILL ON THE TABLE. 09:38 23.05.2017 The price is still consolidating in a tight range. However, the last bullish "Hammer" is on the table, so bears are likely going to test the 144 Moving Average soon. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an option to have a downward movement towards the nearest support level. The lower "Window" is acting as strong support, so we've got a lot of pullbacks from this level. Also, there's resistance by the 34 Moving Average. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the coming hours. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will have an opportunity to push the price towards the last low. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bullish_%22hammer%22_still_on_the_table._1203

EUR/USD: "WINDOW" WAITING FOR BULLS 09:33 23.05.2017 The price has been rising since the last "Hammer" was formed on the lower "Window". There isn't any reversal pattern so far, so the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a downward correction. We've got an "Engulfing", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, if a pullback from the closest support happens, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22window%22_waiting_for_bulls_1202

GBP/USD: BEARISH "THORN" 07:12 23.05.2017 There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the 34 Moving Average. In this case, we should keep an eye on support at 1.2945 - 1.2913 as an intraday bearish target. If a pullback from these levels happens, the pair is going to rise in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3057 - 1.3090. We've got a "Thorn" under resistance at 1.3047, so the price is consolidating. The 55 Moving Average is acting as support. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to reach the closest support at 1.2913, which could be a departure point for an upward price movement towards resistance at 1.2988 - 1.3023. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bearish_%22thorn%22_1201

EUR/USD: CONFIRMED "DOUBLE TOP" 07:10 23.05.2017 The price faced resistance at 1.1249, so there's a consolidation. Also, we've got a "Double Top" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1171 - 1.1139 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement towards resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307. There's a "Double Top", which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach support at 1.1160 in the coming hours. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will have an opportunity to achieve resistance at 1.1249 - 1.1279. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_confirmed_%22double_top%22_1200

USD/CAD: WILL 5-0 BE REALIZED? 06:33 23.05.2017 Recommendations: BUY 1.3435 SL 1.3380 TP 1.3650 BUY 1.3375 TP 1.3320 TP 1.3525 On USD/CAD daily chart, the 5-0 and Wolf Waves patterns are in the process of realization. If "bears" manage to test support levels at 1.3435 and 1.334, the target of Wolf Waves pattern will be fulfilled. In contrast, the rollback from 50% and 61.8% levels of the CB wave in the Shark pattern will allow the "bulls" to count on the restoration of the long-term uptrend. On USD/CAD hourly chart, correction of the bullish trend continues. The rollback may end within the 161.8% target of the "Crab" pattern. It corresponds to the lower border of the upward trading channel. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_will_5_0_be_realized__1198

AUD/USD: AUSSIE CAME CLOSER TO RUBICON 06:32 23.05.2017 On the AUD/USD daily chart, bulls managed to push the quotes beyond the downward trading channel and tested the resistance at 0.749. if it is broken successful, the way towards the 0.7525-0.7535 convergence zone will be opened. In contrast, the return of the Australian dollar to support at 0.745 will raise hopes for a downtrend recovery. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, quotes reached 200%target in the AB = CD pattern. It corresponds to the upper border of the upward trading channel. It may lead to the rollback. To break the downward short-term trend, the resistances at 0.751 and 0.753 levels should be overcome. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_came_closer_to_rubicon_1197

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 23 06:15 23.05.2017 The British pound slumped after authorities said a blast at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester could be a terror-related. A suspected terrorist attacked killed at least 19 people and wounded 50. It happened in the middle of an election campaign and ahead of the tough Brexit negotiations with the two parties embroiled in a wrangle over the size of compensation for the Britain’s divorce settlement. GBP/USD lost a few points on Tuesday having slipped to 1.2990. Today’s focus will be on the BOE Governor Mark Carney’s testimony on inflation and economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee as well as on the public-sector net borrowing. EUR/USD hit a six-month high (1.2542) overnight after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the currency was made too weak by the European Central Bank’s loose monetary policy. The cheaper euro is partly to blame for Germany’s trade surplus. In Tokyo morning, the euro was trading near 1.2450. The bullish phase that started last week appears to a bit overextended. The euro will unlikely hit 1.3000 in the short-term future. So, while undertone of the pair is still positive, we would suggest adjusting some stop-losses to avoid unexpected dips. Tonight’s focus will be on German May Ifo Survey and second vintage of quarterly GDP. Eurozone’s PMIs are also out today. The yen gained some points in the early hours of the Asian session probably on concerns over the explosion in the UK and political wrangling in Washington. USD/JPY retraced to 111.05 from yesterday’s high 111.60. Markets lost their confidence in the growth-generating capacity of the current US administration with Trump’s presidency engulfed in a crisis over his firing of FBI James Comey and the allegations he had some close ties with Russians in the course of his election campaign. With Donald Trump on his first overseas trip, the political crisis has calmed for now. But we expect the melodrama to pick after once the US president returns to Washington. There were two Fed speeches today, both at the dovish end of the monetary policy spectrum – Charles Evans and Lael Brainard who didn’t provide us with any comments on current economic outlook and on monetary policy. FOMC member Kashkari will be speaking today at 4:00 pm and 10:00 pm MT time. Aussie and kiwi are both higher on the session due to rising commodity prices. AUD/USD is trading above 0.7490 at the current moment. There is a room for extension towards 0.7480/85 levels. To maintain the momentum, bulls should allow quotes to move below 0.7430. NZD/USD spiked to 0.7030. A move beyond 0.7050 will force to focus on the upper levels. USD/CAD dropped below 1.3475 (below 50-day MA) on surging commodity prices. Yestersay we received Trump's complete budget proposal that seeks to boost government revenues by allowing oil drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge and draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This might hurt the Loonie and oil prices in the short-term and push USD/CAD higher. On the daily chart of Brent oil futures, the doji candlestick has been formed. It is a good selling opportunity. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_23_1196

USD/JPY: ""WINDOW" ACTING AS STRONG SUPPORT 13:37 22.05.2017 There's a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The 34 Moving Average is acting as resistance. Considering the last bearish "Tweezers", the price is likely going to test the closest support level in the short term. The lower "Window" is acting as strong support, so the price is likely going to test this level once again. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_%22%22window%22_acting_as_strong_support_1181