riki143

GBP/USD: BEARISH "FLAG" 07:51 31.05.2017 There's a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Moreover, we've got a "Flag", so bears are likely going to test support at 1.2755 - 1.2705 in the short term. Meanwhile, if a pullback from these levels happens, we should keep an eye on resistance at 1.2816 - 1.2843 as an intraday target. The Moving Averages have acted as resistance, so we've got a "Triple Top" pattern, which pushed the price towards support at 1.2793. If this level is broken, bears are likely going to reach the closest support at 1.2755 - 1.2705. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bearish_%22flag%22_1344

EUR/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN 07:43 31.05.2017 The price faced support at 1.1103, so we've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, which pushed the pair towards resistance at 1.1204. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.1232 - 1.1249 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.1139 - 1.1103. We've got a "V-Bottom", so the price reached resistance at 1.1204. However, there's a "Pennant" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.1234 in the coming hours. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will have a chance to achieve support at 1.1139 - 1.1103. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22v_bottom%22_pattern_1343

EUR/USD: EURO GOT CAUGHT IN THE CROSS FIRE 06:33 31.05.2017 On the EUR/USD daily chart, the Bears tried to launch a counterattack, but they stumbled upon the solid resistance.There are many buyers in the area of 1.108 - 1.112. As a result, a triangle was formed and the risks for consolidation within the range of 1.1125-1.1245. increased. To restore the uptrend, the May peak needs to be updated around 1.1265. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, a breakout of the upper boundary of the descending trading channel does not guarantee the continuation of the rally. Bears might try to launch a counterattack in the area of 1.124-1.1245 (target 88,6% of the Shack inverted pattern.). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_euro_got_caught_in_the_cross_fire_1341

USD/CHF: BULLS TRY TO RESTORE UPTREND 06:31 31.05.2017 Recommendations: BUY 0,978 SL 0,9725 TP 0,995. On the USD/CHF daily chart, the first attempt of Bulls to test the resistance at 0.9785 and activate the Double bottom reversal pattern has failed. Nevertheless, they still rekindle dream of a correction towards 0.985 and 0.995. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the expanding wedge reversal pattern was formed. Rollbacks towards 50% and 61.8% levels of the 4-5 wave can be used for opening long positions. In the short-term, we expect an uptrend recovery. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf%3a_bulls_try_to_restore_uptrend_1340

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 31 06:04 31.05.2017 The British pound fell sharply with a YouGov/Times poll showing the ruling Conservatives could lose 20 seats and their majority in parliament at the coming June election. GBP/USD immediately dropped to 1.2800 from circa 1.2860. At the present moment, the pair is hovering around 1.2808 level. The recent decline is lacking momentum, so the pound may move higher towards the resistances at 1.2845, 1.2890. The dollar weakened against the safe-haven yen amid European political turmoil overnight. In Tokyo morning, we had preliminary industrial production print for April. The data indicated the best growth since April of 2011. For the yen, the following release wasn’t a reason to gain more strength. So, USD/JPY edged up t0 110.95. There is a soled resistance at 112.50 (the horizontal border of Kumo cloud on the daily timeframe). The US Dollar Index Futures fell to 97.15 overnight. US Treasury yields missed some points Tuesday after the Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that she is content to hike in June, but if soft inflation data persist, she will reassess the appropriate path of monetary policy. The US PCE released yesterday was in line with market expectations. It didn’t show any lift in underlying pace of inflation despite the tightening of the labor market. There will more Fed officials speaking as we approach the FOMC’s June meeting. Robert Kaplan is due to speak in New York on Wednesday. As to the US economic data, pay closer attention to the Chicago PMI, pending home sales and Beige Book. Aussie dipped lower in Tokyo session with missing results for local bank’s retail sales estimate (official data will be released tomorrow). Additional headwind for AUD – falling iron ore futures in China. EUR/USD is trading lower at 1.1165 from yesterday’s high at 1.1205. Yesterday we got the release of German inflation data that fell short of market expectations. A report that ECB policymakers might upgrade their economic risk assessment at the upcoming meeting kept the possibility of a change in forward guidance despite Draghi’s dovish tone yesterday. As downward momentum clearly vanished, we still observe a weak undertone to the current price action and would continue to hold the same view unless the single currency rises above 1.1190. USD/CAD was a bit lower in the session. Now it is around 1.3450. Today’s focus will on the Canadian GDP figures coming at 3:30 pm MT time. Oil futures skipped a few points sliding down from $52.35 to $ 51.90 in the Asian session as raising output from Libya added to concerns about increasing US production that make OPEC-led output cut deal inefficient. According to Libya’s National Oil Corporation, the country production will rise to 800, 000 barrels. This would boost Libya’s exports and keep oil prices under pressure. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_31_1338

AUD/CAD REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE 16:44 30.05.2017 AUD/CAD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 1.0100 AUD/CAD today reversed up from the support zone lying between the key support level 1.0000, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse wave (1) from the start of January, as can be seen below. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the ©-wave of the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the start of May. Given the strength of the support level 1.0000, AUD/CAD can be expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0100. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_cad_reversed_from_support_zone_1329

AUD/NZD BROKE SUPPORT LEVEL 1.0550 16:43 30.05.2017 AUD/NZD broke support level 1.0550 Next sell target - 1.0450 AUD/NZD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support level 1.0550 (former resistance level from January). The breakout of the support level 1.0550 was preceded by the breakout of support zone lying between the support level 1.6500 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse wave from January. Both of these breakouts accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3. AUD/NZD is expected to fall toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0450 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active minor impulse wave 3). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_nzd_broke_support_level_1.0550_1328

GBP/USD: BEARS BROKE TREND 13:15 30.05.2017 The pair faced support at 1.2755, so there's a "Double Bottom", which has been confirmed. Nevertheless, bulls couldn't break resistance at 1.2887, which means there's an option to have another decline towards the next support at 1.2816 - 1.2774. If a pullback from these levels happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average. We've got a "V-Bottom", so the price is consolidating along the 55 Moving Average. In this case, the market is likely going to decline in the direction of support at 1.2816 - 1.2793. However, if we have a pullback from this area, there'll be a green light for another test of the 55 Moving Average. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bears_broke_trend_1325

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PUSHED PRICE LOWER 13:10 30.05.2017 The last "Double Top" pattern has been confirmed, so the price got support at 1.1103, which led to forming a "V-Bottom", which pushed the price towards resistance at 1.1204. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the direction of the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1171 - 1.1204. The price faced support at 1.1103, so we've got a "V-Bottom". Bulls tried to break the 89 Moving Average, but they failed, so bears are likely going to test the closest support at 1.1139 - 1.1103. However, if we see a pullback from this area, we should keep an eye on the 55 Moving Average as an intraday target. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22double_top%22_pushed_price_lower_1324

USD/JPY: "TOWER" PUSHING PRICE HIGHER 12:52 30.05.2017 Resistance by the middle of the last huge black candle is still on the table. Also, we’ve got a “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the pair is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average which could be a departure point for another decline. The upper “Window” is acting as resistance, so there’s a bearish “Harami” pattern, which has weak confirmation. Therefore, the nearest support is likely going to be tested again. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_%22tower%22_pushing_price_higher_1323

EUR/USD: BULLISH "HIGH WAVE" 12:48 30.05.2017 The price has reached the lower “Window”, so we’ve got a “High Wave”, but confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the “Window” is likely going to act as support once again in the short term. There’s a bullish “Engulfing” pattern at the last low. However, we’ve got a bearish “Harami” on the 34 Moving Average, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance in the coming hours. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bullish_%22high_wave%22_1322

AUD/USD: BEARS REGAIN THEIR STRENGTH 06:43 30.05.2017 On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears try to return quotes to the borders of the downward channel. If they succeed, the risks for the restoration of the downward trading channel will increase. In contrast, the rebound from the diagonal support may result in the development of consolidation. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there is a struggle for an important level of 0.7425. If bears wrestle the bulls down, the Australian dollar will move lower towards 0.7365 (target 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern). The Bulls' win may result in the return of quotes to the resistance at 0.774. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_bears_regain_their_strength_1318

USD/CAD: LOONIE CHOOSES THE WAY 06:38 30.05.2017 Recommendation: BUY 1,3505 SL 1,346 TP1 1,359 TP2 1,364. On the USD/CAD daily chart, there is an attack on the diagonal support in the form of the upper border of the previous downward trading channel. If the Bulls manage to resist the Bears' attack, the risks for implementation of the inverted pattern 5-0 will increase. In contrast, if bears manage to test the aforementioned support, they will be able to implement the Wolfe Wave pattern. On the hourly chart, USD/CAD is moving within the upward trading channel. Bulls might try to restore the trend once the "Head and shoulders" pattern is realized. You may consider opening the long position on the breakout of the resistance at 1.3505. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_loonie_chooses_the_way_1317

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 30 06:09 30.05.2017 Growing concerns over Greek bailout, early elections in Italy and comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi about the need to maintain the bank’s extraordinary amount of monetary policy support. The ECB has long argued that even with accelerating economic growth, inflation is far from sustainable. To return and stabilize inflation rate close to the bank’s coveted target of 2% an extraordinary amount of monetary policy support is needed. German press report released overnight stated that Greece may opt out of its next bailout payment if country’s officials fail to strike a debt relief deal. Last week, eurozone financial ministers failed to agree with the IMF on Greek debt relief or to give Athens some new loans. They agreed to discuss the following issue at their upcoming meeting in June. The comments from the former prime minister of Italy Matteo Renzi in favor of holding the legislative elections at the same time with Germany have also pressured the euro. The single currency slid to 1.1130 due to all these headwind factors. It may drop lower towards 1.1250 and 1.1100 levels. The EUR will be under pressure unless it manages to break 1.1190. The market will be focused today on German inflation data for May, US CB consumer confidence report and US inflation for April to define a further direction of the EUR/USD currency pair. Sterling dropped after a specific opinion poll showed May’s Conservative Party leading the Corbyn’s Labour Party by just five points. Investors were spooked by the fact May’s promise of strong and stable government might be in jeopardy after the Manchester terror attack. The bearish phase in GBP/USD technical outlook is still intact despite the yesterday’s modest rebound from Friday’s low at 1.2775 to 1.2850. In Tokyo session, the pound lost its steam and slipped below 1.2820. If today’s economic releases out of the US are weak, the pound might regain some strength. USD/JPY moved lower to 110.92 in the Asian session. The economic data out of Japan was a mixed bag with neutral jobless rate report, poor household consumption estimate, and upbeat retail sales figures. The quotes may drop lower towards 110.50 ahead of the solid support at 110.20. In case of a rebound, the pair may rise above 112 – 112.50 levels. Aussie dropped to 0.7415 ahead of its major release on the day – building permits that beat market expectations. Afterwards, there was a modest upsurge towards 0.7430. The immediate outlook for AUD/USD is still neutral despite the existing bias for a probe of lower levels at 0.7400, 0.7380. Loonie suffered some losses this week mainly due to falling oil prices. USD/CAD rose above 1.3475 in Tokyo morning. The pair has room for a further extension towards 1.3500. We will get current account data, raw material price index and industrial product price index out of Canada later today. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_30_1316

AUD/USD: AUSSIE GOING LOWER 05:01 30.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7370; resistance – 0.7440. Trade recommendations: Sell — 0.7420; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7370; TP2 — 0.7340. Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling lines; the prices are under the Cloud and bounced from Senkou Span B. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_going_lower_1314

EUR/USD: EURO FALLING INTO THE CLOUD 04:59 30.05.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.1110, 1.1050; resistance – 1.1190, 1.1210. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.1110/00; SL — 1.1080; TP1 — 1.1190; TP2 – 1.1210. Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, falling lines; the prices are on the strong support in the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_euro_falling_into_the_cloud_1313

NZD/USD REACHED BUY TARGET 0.7050 16:20 29.05.2017 NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7050 Next buy target - 0.7130. NZD/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.7050 (top of wave 4, which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.7050 was preceded by the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate impulse wave © from the start of February, as can be seen below. If the pair closes today above resistance level 0.7050 - NZD/USD can then be expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7130. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd_reached_buy_target_0.7050_1306

CHF/JPY REVERSED FROM RESISTANCE ZONE 16:18 29.05.2017 CHF/JPY reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 113.00 CHF/JPY recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone surrounding the key resistance level 115.00, which has been steadily reversing all upward impulse waves from last December, as can be seen from the daily CHF/JPY chart below. The resistance zone near the resistance level 115.00 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. Given the clear triple bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, CHF/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 113.00 (which reversed earlier correction (2)). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/chf_jpy_reversed_from_resistance_zone_1305

USD/JPY: BULLS GOING TO TEST MA 13:03 29.05.2017 We've got a "Hammer" at the last local low, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, the price is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average in the coming hours. However, if a pullback from this line arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to test the nearest resistance. The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, but we've got a bullish "Harami", which hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance, which could be a departure point for another bearish price movement. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bulls_going_to_test_ma_1304

EUR/USD: BULLISH "TWEEZERS" 13:00 29.05.2017 There's a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we've got a bullish "Tweezers", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the current correction is likely going to be continued. We've got a bullish "Tweezers" at the last local low. Also, there's a "Shooting Star" on the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, the 89 Moving Average is likely going to act as support shortly. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bullish_%22tweezers%22_1303

GBP/USD: "V-BOTTOM" STOPPED BEARS 08:13 29.05.2017 The last upward trend has been broken, so the price meet with support at 1.2755, which led to forming a "V-Bottom" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance at 1.2913. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards support at 1.2755 - 1.2705. The price faced support at 1.2755, so we've got a "V-Bottom". In this case, we're likely going to have another upward price movement towards resistance at 1.2887 - 1.2905, which could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2755 - 1.2705. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_%22v_bottom%22_stopped_bears_1302

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PATTERN 08:01 29.05.2017 The price is consolidating between resistance at 1.1267 and support at 1.1171. Also, we've got a "Double Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1103 - 1.1075. If we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement in the direction of the last high. There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the Moving Averages. The 89 Moving Average has acted as support, so bulls are likely going to get resistance on the 34 Moving Average in the coming hours. However, if a pullback from this line happens, bears will have a chance to reach the closest support at 1.1139 - 1.1103. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22double_top%22_pattern_1301

USD/JPY: BULLS WAIT FOR THE SIGNAL TO ATTACK 06:33 29.05.2017 Recommendation: BUY 111,95 SL 111,4 TP 113,9 TP2 117. On the USD/JPY daily chart, the transformation of the inverted Shark pattern into 5-0 continues. A corrective movement towards 50% and 61.8% levels of the CD wave can be used for opening long positions. In the current situation, it is better to wait for the moment when the resistance at 111.95 is tested. A successful test of this resistance may result in activation of the Crab pattern with target 161.8%. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the Expanding wedge pattern is formed. To complete it, the point 5 should be formed. A break of the resistance at 111.5 will allow us to open long positions. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bulls_wait_for_the_signal_to_attack_1299

EUR/JPY: BEARS WANT TO DEVELOP CORRECTION 06:32 29.05.2017 Recommendation: BUY 124,9 SL 1,2435 TP 127,9. On the EUR/JPY daily chart, bears launched a counterattack willing to develop correction and push quotes beyond the upward trading channel. As a result, the Double-Top pattern was formed. To restore the uptrend, buyers need to test the resistance at 125.75. On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 124.15-124.5. A breakout of its lower border can result in the development of the correction towards 122.85 (88.6% target in the Shark pattern). A successful test of the resistance at 124.9 can lead to the uptrend restoration. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_jpy%3a_bears_want_to_develop_correction_1298

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 29 06:16 29.05.2017 The start of this week was really quiet with the UK, the US observing Memorial Day and China celebrating Dragon Boat Festival. The British pound slumped to 1.2775 on Friday after YouGov poll suggested the UK election race was getting tighter with Theresa May’s party lead over her Labour counterparts to just 5 points. GBP will likely remain under pressure throughout this week as Sunday’s opinion poll appear to confirm the decline of Conservative support. A poll for the Sunday Telegraph showed Labour party regaining its support lacking just 6 points to catch up with the Conservative party. While the conservative win is still the most probable outcome in June 8 election, recent polls raised concerns over the possibility of a smaller working majority for Tories or even a hung parliament. The US dollar regained its strength on Friday after the Commerce Department upgraded its first quarter GDP estimate and after Fed of San Francisco President John Williams said that the US economy is strong enough for three-four rate hikes this year. The possibility of President Trump being impeached is low. US domestic intelligence and security service is now investigating into the ties of Trump’s son law Jared Kushner with Russian authorities. Trump’s finally back home after his 9-day foreign trip. Trump’s first foray on the international stage saw him engaged in multiple negotiations in which he touched on many global issues. He visited Saudi Arabia, Israel, met with the Pope Francis, discussed security issues with NATO members and participated in G7 summit in Taormina, Sicily. The later one ended up with the most developed countries failing to agree on a common stance on climate change or trade (because of Trump of course). USD/JPY is trading a little bit higher in today’s session at around 111.30 from Friday’s low at 111.20. The yen didn’t show any reaction to North Korea’s missile launch. It seems that market already used to this sort of occasions. The pair has room for extension towards the solid resistance towards 111.80 – the horizontal Senkou B span (the upper border of Ichimoku Kumo). EUR/USD declined to 1.1170 in the Asian session from Friday’s high at 1.1235. The single currency soared to 1.268 last week following the fortunate election outcome but failed to make any further gains. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is speaking today at 4:00 PM MT time. He will likely be asked about his plans for stimulus withdrawal (QE taper). If Draghi still points to still low inflation figures, the euro will be hurt. The euro area data that came in recent weeks is very strong, The disconnect between accelerating growth in the Eurozone and sluggish inflation is a puzzle that should be unraveled by the ECB officials before they meet to decide on their monetary policy stance on June 8. The NZD was the major performer on Friday. It spiked almost to 0.7080. In today’s Tokyo session, it was trading at 0.7060 level. USD/CAD ticked up to 1. 3460 from Friday’s low of 1.3430 as oil crude futures slipped some points in the Asian session. Oil prices suffered significant losses last week after an OPEC-led decision to curb oil supply didn’t go as far as many investors projected. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_29__1297