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GBP/USD: POUND DREAMS OF WAVES 06:13 20.06.2017 Recommendations: BUY 1,291 SL 1,2855 TP1 1,291 TP2 1,294, SELL 1,264 SL 1,2695 TP1 1,251, TP2 1,245. On the GBP/USD daily chart, there is consolidation in the trading range of 1.264 - 1.28. If quotes move beyond the upper border of the range, the Wolfe Waves pattern will be realized. In contrast, a break of the support at 1.264 should activate the AB = CD pattern with a target 200% (1.245). On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the Bears' failure to return quotes to the borders of the triangle will indicate their weakness. In contrast, a successful test of the resistance at 1.281 may result in the pullback of quotes towards 1.291 and 1.294. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_pound_dreams_of_waves_1702

NZD/USD: KIWI VOTES FOR THE CORRECTION 06:11 20.06.2017 Recommendation: SELL 0,72 SL 0,7145 TP1 0,7085 TP2 0,701 On the NZD/USD daily chart, target 88.6% of the inverted Shark pattern has been achieved. At the present moment, there is a risk of a pullback towards 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% levels of the CD wave as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern into the pattern 5-0. To restore the uptrend, the Bulls need to update the June high. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, a reversal pattern 1-2-3 and a triangle were formed. A break of the diagonal support near 0.72 will create the prerequisites for the correction towards 0.7085 (target 88.6% of the Bat pattern) or lower. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd%3a_kiwi_votes_for_the_correction_1701

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 20 05:49 20.06.2017 Fed Dudley was a superstar of yesterday’s trading sessions. In the absence of any significant economic data overnight, the market’s focus was on Fed member Dudley who gave an upbeat assessment to the US economy and forecasted a further increase in inflation rate due to tightening of the labor market. He also noted that Fed withdraws its monetary policy accommodation very judiciously, gradually so that it wouldn’t cause a recession. Dudley’s hawkish tone allowed the USD to regain its strength that consequently reverberated across the trading desk. Federal Reserve Chicago head Charles Evans a little hampered the USD rally today after he said that he would like to see more data confirming the surging inflation rates before hiking once more time. He does support a gradual reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. This allowed the USD not to lose its ground. USD/JPY rose to 111.65. Dudley’s effect was so strong that even Russia’s threat to target US warplanes in Syria failed to ruffle any risk-averse sentiment that would support safe-haven yen. The pair swiftly moved from neutral to bullish phase. We will be waiting for a further upside towards 112.00/112.20. EUR/USD ticked a little bit higher in Tokyo morning. It is trading along the 1.1155 level. The single currency needs to break below 1.1105 so as the pair moved into a bearish phase. We cannot speak of the restoration of the uptrend unless EUR moves clearly above 1.2000 and makes some additional gains. The British pound drifted lower during the EU-UK negotiations held yesterday in Brussels. Dudley’s comments sent it even lower to 1.2722. At the present moment, it is trading near 1.2740 against the USD. Today’s focus will be on the BOE’s Governor Mark Carney’s speech which is due at 10:30 am (MT time). Market participants will be curious to know his comments on the last week’s unexpected 5-3 vote to remain the cash rate unchanged. With annual consumer prices spiking to 2.9%, some BOE’s officials believe that a positive trade-off between supporting job and activity vs. returning inflation back to the target no longer exists. It would be interesting to know on whose side Carney is on. Aussie dropped to 0.7585 yesterday on the news that Moody decided to cut the credit rating of the big four Australian banks to AA3 from AA2. Again, Dudley’s speech increased AUD’s losses. In today’s session, AUD/USD felt better, it rose above 0.7600. From here, the upsurge towards 0.7680 will be complicated given the yesterday’s unexpected drop. So, we expect to rise at least to 0.7535 in the short-term. USD/CAD didn’t change its position from yesterday. It holds still at 1.3217. There was little support from oil prices as investors saw more signs of the rising crude production in the US, Libya, and Nigeria. OPEC-led output cuts seem to be no longer effective. Brent oil futures dropped to $46.78 yesterday. In Tokyo morning, they were trading near $49.95. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_20_1699

USD/JPY: DOLLAR IS OVERBOUGHT 05:37 20.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 111.20, 110.50; resistance – 111.90/112.00. Trade recommendations: Sell — 111.90; SL — 120.10; TP1 — 111.20; TP2 — 110.500. Reason: weak bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; a market is overbought and expected a correction movements. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_dollar_is_overbought_1698

AUD/USD: AUSSIE READY TO GO HIGHER 05:35 20.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7580-0.7600; resistance – 0.7670, 7700 Trade recommendations: Buy — 0.7600; SL — 0.7580; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices supported by Kijun-sen and the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_ready_to_go_higher_1697

EUR/USD: WAVE (III) ABOUT TO END 12:20 19.06.2017 Wave 2 may have been formed, cause there's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level. Also, there's a bearish impulse in wave (i), so the price is rising in wave (ii). If we've got another pullback from 4/8 MM Level, bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) in the short term. The price has been rising since a pullback from 1/8 MM Level was formed. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline in wave (iii). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_wave_%28iii%29_about_to_end_1680

USD/JPY: SUPPORT BY THE NEAREST "WINDOW" 12:16 19.06.2017 The last bullish "Engulfing" has been confirmed strongly, but we've got a bearish "Engulfing", which has a quite weak confirmation. So, the pair is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, we could have another bullish price movement. There's support by the nearest "Window". At the same time, we've got a bullish "Doji", which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the current correction is likely going to be continued towards the 89 Moving Average. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_support_by_the_nearest_%22window%22_1679

EUR/USD: "TOWER" AND "HIGH WAVE" PATTERNS 12:14 19.06.2017 The last "Tower" and "High Wave" patterns led to the current upward price movement. It seems like the market is likely going to rise even higher in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support. The price is consolidating along the "Window". Also, there's a bullish "Three Methods", which hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving up during the day. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22tower%22_and_%22high_wave%22_patterns_1678

EUR/USD: EURO RETURNED AGAIN TO SSA 05:34 19.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.1160; resistance – 1.1210. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.1220; SL — 1.1200; TP1 — 1.1300; TP2 – 1.1340. Sell — 1.1180; SL — 1.1200; TP1 — 1.1080; TP2 – 1.1060 Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are returned to upper bounds of the Cloud after testing the support of Senkou Span B. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_euro_returned_again_to_ssa_1666

GBP/USD: RESISTANCE WAITING FOR BULLS 08:59 19.06.2017 The price is consolidating under the 34 Moving Average, so there's a possible developing "Rising Wedge" pattern. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2738 - 1.2705. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2768 - 1.2793. There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the Moving Averages, so bulls are likely going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.2804 - 1.2817 in the coming hours. However, if we have a pullback from this area, the pair will probably try to catch support at 1.2738 - 1.2705. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_resistance_waiting_for_bulls_1677

EUR/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT 08:56 19.06.2017 We've got a "Double Bottom", so the price tested resistance at 1.1204. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1131 - 1.1108 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1165. There's a "Triple Top", which has been confirmed. In this case, the market is likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.1137 - 1.1131 during the day. If we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will have an option to reach resistance at 1.1165 - 1.1178. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bears_going_to_test_nearest_support_1676

USD/CHF: FRANC PLAYS WITH THE PATTERNS 06:28 19.06.2017 Recommendation: BUY 0,977 SL 0,9715 TP1 0,993 TP2 1,005. On the USD/CHF daily chart, the realization of the inverted Shark pattern continues. The growth of quotes above high (0.9765) of the internal bar may lead to the continuation of the rally. In contrast, a breakout of the support located at the low of the internal pattern (0.9725) may lead to the return of the quotes towards lower border of the downward trading channel. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, a target 78.6% of the Gartley pattern has been hit. Then, there was a rollback. If the high at 0.977 is updated, the Dragon pattern will continue its formation. On the upside, there is a target 161.8% of the Crab pattern, More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf%3a_franc_plays_with_the_patterns_1670

EUR/USD: ?URO TESTED THE BORDERS OF CONSOLIDATION RANGE 06:25 19.06.2017 Recommendation: SELL 1,117 SL 1,1225 TP1 1,11 TP2 1,1025. On the EUR/USD daily chart, neither bulls nor bears managed to force the quotes out of the consolidation range 1.117-1.129. The retest of its upper or lower borders might be successful. If the resistance at 1.119 is broken, there will be a continuation of the rally towards 1.1345. In contrast, a successful test of the support at 1.117 will likely result in a drop towards 1.111 and below. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the Expanding wedge pattern was formed. The growth of quotes towards 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% levels of the wave 4-5, followed by their return to 23.8%, 38.2%, and 50% levels can be used for opening positions for sale. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%D0%B5uro_tested_the_borders_of_consolidation_range_1669

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 19 05:59 19.06.2017 USD/JPY is trading a little bit higher this morning at 110.95 as we got a surprise trade deficit from Japan. The current move is a part of a consolidation phase. The pair will likely trade sideways between the wide range of 110.3 – 111.10. Political turmoil in the US took another turn over the weekend. US President Donald Trump isn’t under investigation for obstruction by special counsel Robert Mueller, a member of the president’s legal team said, despite Trump’s repeated comments on Twitter that he is the target of a “witch hunt”. The NY Fed W. Dudley is due to speak later today. He might provide insight into whether the Fed is still on the track of raising its rate. Some analysts believe that he should sound very dovish and this should help the USD not to lose its ground. The British pound is trading near 1.2770 in the light of a deliberate act of Islamophobia performed. In Monday’s morning, a van ploughed into worshippers leaving a London mosque killing at least one person and injuring some others. The Brexit negotiations are about to start at 11 am in Brussels with UK PM Theresa May’s government already on the backfoot. Without solid support for her earlier hard Brexit policies, she will have to soften them. It is not a one-day talk. So, any comments about the talks’ progress shouldn’t produce significant moves. At the present moment, GBP/USD is trading at relatively muted manner. The prospects for further weakness has diminished but the slide towards 1.2730 is still possible. On the upside, there is a room for extension towards 1.2800/1.2830 levels. EUR/USD slipped a few points and reached 1.1195. From here, the pair will likely trade sideways within the wide range of 1.1140 – 1.1265. President Emmanuel Macron won a solid majority in the second round of France’s parliamentary election held on Sunday, sweeping aside traditional parties and gaining support for his pro-business reforms. The Australian dollar rose higher on Monday after the country’s central bank governor Philip Lowe said the country may achieve stronger growth in upcoming months. AUD/USD is trading against the level of 0.7615. The bullish phase is still intact. There is scope for further upsurge towards the resistances at 0.7670/0.7675. USD/CAD ticked higher in the Asian session. The pair almost reached the level of 1.3220. In commodities, Brent futures dropped to $47.20 on concerns about a supply glut amid faltering demand. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_19__1668

GBP/USD: BULLS ENTERED INTO CLOUD 05:35 19.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2750, 1.2660; resistance – 1.2805, 1.2840. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.2780; SL — 1.2760; TP1 — 1.2840; TP2 — 1.2900. Sell — 1.2750; SL — 1.2770; TP1 — 1.2660; TP2 — 1.2610. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices entered into the Cloud and the Bulls will going to the upper bound of the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bulls_entered_into_cloud_1667

EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 1/8 MM LEVEL 15:19 16.06.2017 A bullish impulse in wave [c] of 2 may have been formed. Also, there's a small bearish impulse in wave (i). In this case, we're likely going to have another decline in wave (iii) in the coming hours. We've got a pullback from 1/8 MM Level, so wave (i) may have been formed. The main target for wave (ii) is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave (iii). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_pullback_from_1_8_mm_level_1654

USD/JPY: "THREE METHODS" PATTERN 12:05 16.06.2017 We've got a bullish "Engulfing", which has been confirmed. Also, there isn't any reversal pattern so far, which means the pair is likely going to continue moving up in the short term. There's a "Three Methods" pattern, so bulls have broken the nearest "Window". Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving up until any bearish pattern arrives. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_%22three_methods%22_pattern_1653

EUR/USD: "TOWER" AND "HIGH WAVE" 12:01 16.06.2017 We've got a "Tower" and a "High Wave", but both patterns haven't been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline towards the closest "Window". There's a "High Wave", which has been confirmed enough. Also, we've got an unconfirmed "Shooting Star". In this case, we could have a local bearish correction, but bulls are likely going to test the Moving Averages afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22tower%22_and_%22high_wave%22_1652

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 19 -23 08:42 16.06.2017 The British pound gained as more members of the Bank of England monetary policy committee voted for the rate increase. The BOE decided to maintain its monetary policy settings but at 5-3 vote. Three dissenters advocating rate hike became increasingly worried about the inflation that could easily reach 3% by the fall and thereby flatten British consumers’ wallets. Others seemed to be more concerned with hardships the UK may experience during the Brexit. Sterling rose to 1.2795 on the announcement and managed to retain its strength in subsequent sessions. In the US, the Fed raised its interest rate on Wednesday. But this didn’t help the USD to climb higher, as rate increase was overshadowed by extremely soft consumer prices and weaker retail sales released ahead of the FOMC meeting. Next week, the quotes will likely be led by political goings-on as the economic calendar for GBP/USD is very light. Brexit negotiations will start the week, as main negotiators agreed to launch them on Monday, June 19. Then, we will hear the speeches of several Fed’s officials that are set to uncover their further monetary policy projections. Datawise, pay attention to the UK public sector net borrowing report and the US jobless claims coming on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The clamor surrounding the investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections will continue to weigh on the USD. GBP/USD rose to 1.2775 in the course of the past week. While downside momentum is still intact, the quotes have scope for a further extension to at least 1.2820. The solid resistance at 1.2835 (50-day MA) may prevent quotes from rising higher. The break of 1.2625 will be a good indication that we have moved into bearish phase. The next support from there can be found at 1.2560 (200-day MA). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_outlook_for_june_19__23__1650

GBP/USD: CONSOLIDATION ALONG THE MA 07:37 16.06.2017 There's a developing "Rising Wedge", so the price faced resistance on the 34 Moving Average. In this case, the pair is likely going to decline towards support at 1.2738 - 1.2705. At the same time, if we see a pullback from these levels, there'll be an open door for another upward price movement towards resistance at 1.2768 - 1.2793. The price is consolidating along the Moving Averages. It seems like bulls are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to achieve the next support at 1.2738 - 1.2705. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_consolidation_along_the_ma_1648

EUR/USD: DEVELOPING "FLAG" PATTERN 07:29 16.06.2017 Bears have broken the "Rising Wedge" and the last upward trendline. Also, there's a possible "Flag" pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1108. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the 89 Moving Average. The pair faced support at 1.1137, so the price is consolidating. However, there's a possible developing "Flag" pattern, so bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.1165 - 1.1178. Meanwhile, if we have a pullback from this area, bears will have a green light to achieve the next support at 1.1108. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_developing_%22flag%22_pattern_1647

AUD/USD: THE BULLS WILL BE GIVEN A THIRD ATTEMPT 06:25 16.06.2017 Recommendation: BUY 0,7625 SL 0,757 TP1 0,771 TP2 0,78. On the AUD/USD daily chart, the implementation of the inverted Bat pattern continues. Its target 88.6% is located near 0.771. Bulls twice tried to test the resistance at 0.7612 but failed to do so. As a result, an internal bar pattern was formed. A successful test of its high may lead to the restoration of the uptrend. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there was a realization of the Dragon pattern. If quotes move beyond the triangle, the risks for the realization of the inverted Crab pattern with target 0.78 will increase. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_the_bulls_will_be_given_a_third_attempt_1643

USD/CAD: LOONIES BREAKS THE TREND 06:24 16.06.2017 Recommendation: SELL 1,3185 SL 1,324 TP1 1,3 TP2 1,2875. On the USD/CAD daily chart, the realization of the Wolfe Waves pattern continues. Its target is located near the 1.3 mark. The Bears' attempt to push quotes beyond the long-term upward trading channel has failed. The repeated attempt may lead to the breakout of the bullish trend and implementation of the target 113% of the Shark pattern (1.2875). On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the Bulls built bastions near 1.3225 and 1.3185. A successful test of these levels will probably result in a further drop of quotes. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_loonies_breaks_the_trend_1642

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 16 05:57 16.06.2017 The Bank of Japan was in the spotlight in the Asian session. Traders were waiting for its rate decision. The BOJ left its monetary policy settings unchanged having pledged to continue pouring stimulus into the economy and striving to reach their 2% inflation target. USD/JPY moved above 111 on the announcement. At the present moment, the pair is trading along the 111.20 level. There is scope for a further USD strength to 111.70. A break above this level would be a good indication of the beginning of the bullish phase. The pound gained some pips overnight after the BOE’s monetary policy committee was more divided than expected with only 5 votes for staying on hold against 3 voting to raise. The BOE’s officials are on the horns of the dilemma: whether to take actions to return inflation back to target or support jobs, overall economic activity during the Brexit. The BOE’s rate announcement showed us that this tradeoff is lessening given growth in employment to date and rising inflation that has recently overshot bank’s target. GBP/USD is trading near 1.2770. The downward momentum is waning, but further dips are not ruled out. The Aussie added some points yesterday due to better-than-expected labor data. AUD/USD is near 0.7577. The bullish phase is still intact. Those who are long may target higher level and plan exiting their positions at around 0.7670/0.7675 levels. The Kiwi was hit by a weaker than expected quarterly GDP figures. NZD/USD fell sharply overnight from 0.7268 to 0.7185. Now, it is trading slightly above 0.7200. EUR/USD dropped to 1.1140 on a stronger USD. Thursday’s economic data flow gave greenback some reasons for cheer. It seems that the dollar has started getting over its shock from the core CPI release and lower retail sales released on Wednesday before the Fed’s rate announcement. The immediate pressure is on the downside. So, the single currency may slide towards 1.1110 against the USD. It will stay under pressure until bulls manage to reclaim the level of 1.1210. After the BOJ’s meeting, there is almost nothing on the radar. In Europe, there will be the final read of May CPI with headline expected to be 1.4% and core inflation figures at 0.9%. In the US, the Fed Kaplan is scheduled to speak at 7:45 pm. In addition, we will get housing starts and the Uni Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June which should deviate greatly from their previous prints. USD/CAD is trading a bit lower as oil prices have started their recovery. Brent is now trading at $46.98 which is higher than its previous low at $46.68 reached on Wednesday after US data showed a build in gasoline stockpiles. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_16_1641

AUD/USD: AUSSIE SUPPORTED BY TENKAN AND KIJUN 05:02 16.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7580; resistance – 0.7620, 7670 Trade recommendations: Buy — 0.7600; SL — 0.7580; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the prices made the new highs and corrected to support of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_supported_by_tenkan_and_kijun_1639