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USD/JPY: DOLLAR BREAKING DOWN SSB’S SUPPORT 07:17 22.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 110.75, 110.45; resistance – 111.30. Trade recommendations: Sell — 111.00; SL — 111.20; TP1 — 110.45; TP2 — 109.70. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling Kijun-sen; the prices are breaking the SSB’s support and going to Cloud’s support. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_dollar_breaking_down_ssb%E2%80%99s_support_1758

AUD/USD: AUSSIE ENTERED INTO CLOUD 07:15 22.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7540, 0.7500; resistance – 0.7580. Trade recommendations: Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7640; TP2 — 0.7680. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the Cloud and may going lower to Senkou Span B. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_entered_into_cloud_1757

AUD/USD RETURNED HOME 06:54 22.06.2017 Recommendation SELL 0.7520 SL 0.7575 TP1 0.7425, TP2 0.7400. On the daily AUD/USD chart, bears managed to hold resistance at 0.7612 and make the quotes go beyond the uptrend channel. The break of support at 0.7525 will strengthen the risks of decline towards 0.7450 and the upper border of the previous descending channel. On H1, AUD/USD tested support in the 0.7570-0.7575 area with the following retest. The pair returned to the previous trading range of 0.7520-0.7570. If the pair leaves this range, it will trigger the “Shark” pattern with targets at 0.7425 (78.6%) and 0.74 (88.6%). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd_returned_home_1755

USD/CAD: BULLS ARE LAUNCHING AN ATTACK 06:47 22.06.2017 Recommendation SELL 1.3465 SL 1.3520 TP1 1.3305, TP2 1.3160. On the daily chart, USD/CAD recoiled from the diagonal support in form of the lower border of the rising trend channel. Bulls counter-attacked, conquered resistance at 1.3305 and are trying to hold the pair above this level. At the same time, large shorts are located at 1.3465 and 1.3525. Unless there’s a break higher we shouldn’t expect a resumption of an uptrend. On H1 advance towards 1.3460-1.3470 and 1.3495 (88.6% target of the “Bat” pattern) should be used for opening short positions. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_bulls_are_launching_an_attack_1754

USD/CAD REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE 17:33 21.06.2017 USD/CAD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 1.3400 USD/CAD continues to rise sharply after the earlier upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support levels 1.3260 and 1.3220. This support zone was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Long-Legged Doji (which marked the end of the previous minor ABC correction 2). USD/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.3400 (former strong support level from May). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad_reversed_from_support_zone_1748

CAD/CHF REVERSED FROM RESISTANCE ZONE 17:32 21.06.2017 CAD/CHF reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 0.7270 CAD/CHF recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7380 (previous monthly high from May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the middle of April. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Bearish Engulfing – which marked the end of the previous minor impulse wave (i). CAD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 0.7270 (previous resistance level from May). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/cad_chf_reversed_from_resistance_zone_1747

EUR/USD: WAVE (I) ABOUT TO END 12:01 21.06.2017 Wave (i) is about to end, so if we see a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, there'll be time for wave (ii). Anyway, bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) afterwards. In this case, we should keep in mind 2/8 MM Level as an intraday target. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible wedge in wave (i). Wave iv is likely going to end soon, so if we have a pullback from 2/8 MM Level, there'll be an opportunity to have wave v of (i). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_wave_%28i%29_about_to_end_1744

USD/JPY: "TWEEZERS" PUSHING PRICE HIGHER 11:57 21.06.2017 There's a bullish "Tweezers" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will have a green light to achieve the 55 Moving Average. We've got a pullback from the nearest "Window", so there's an "Engulfing" pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to continue rising until any reversal pattern forms. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_%22tweezers%22_pushing_price_higher_1743

EUR/USD: BULLISH "ENGULFING" 11:54 21.06.2017 The price got support by the lower "Window", so we've got a bullish "Harami" pattern, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average line, which could be a departure point for another decline. We've got a bullish "Engulfing", which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to continue moving up until any bearish pattern arrives. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bullish_%22engulfing%22_1742

PREDICTING BITCOIN’S FUTURE VALUE. WHAT CAUSES ITS UPS AND DOWNS? 11:25 21.06.2017 In recent years, bitcoin has become an all-time favorite asset of many traders due to its fast appreciation. 2017 is truly fruitful for BTC. Simple because since the beginning of this year it spiked by nearly 200%, outpaced the yellow metal and achieved its all-time high of $3000. What causes such an unprecedented rally? It is bitcoin’s exceptional characteristics. Its main distinction from fiat currencies is the fact that no government controls it. While there is no limit to a number of banknotes the central political entity can get out of money printing press, bitcoins are very limited in number. There are only 21 million of them in circulation and this number cannot be increased. Many believe that the limited quantity of bitcoins increases their value in the long run. So, don’t be surprised if Bitcoin rebounds to even higher peaks. A major drawback of the bitcoin is its extreme volatility. Bitcoin is moving upwards with numerous corrections – multiple dips that can easily hit traders’ pockets. There are three major factors that may distort the BTC’s way to the upside: Government regulations. Although Bitcoin is a decentralized currency; it still can be influenced by government regulation. For example, in early February, Chinese authorities seeking to relieve downward pressure on the yuan and stop the depletion of the country’s exchange reserves, halted bitcoin’s withdrawals. Investors could only buy or sell bitcoins on Chines exchange but were not allowed to transfer them or download/remove them. The BTC was hurt significantly. The decision to resume withdrawals came in May and sent the BTC to an all-time high. The news headlines. Sometimes, the price of Bitcoin moves in par with the major world news and some other Bitcoin-related news (cyber-attacks, security breaches). Investors at small funds. Various speculators have a significant effect on the bitcoin’s fluctuations. A great share of bitcoin’s $6.4 billion market is owned by individual investors in such institutions like hedge funds. The recent big drop was spotted on June 15, 2017. Bitcoin slumped to $2250 from $2570 in a single day for no fundamental reason. Then, the digital currency managed to recover to $2640 in just a few days. Such swing is not new for Bitcoin. It is already an established pattern: after the significant downfall, the BTC rebound to the even higher levels. Those who decide trading BTC should make a note of such extreme fluctuations in BTC/USD and remember about bitcoin’s characteristics we specified in this article. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/predicting_bitcoin%E2%80%99s_future_value._what_causes_its_ups_and_downs__1740

OIL MARKET OVERVIEW 08:20 21.06.2017 Brent oil futures have extended their decline below $46 per barrel – a nine-month low as rising supply offsets efforts by OPEC and other major oil producing countries to drain a glut. Recovering production from Libya and Nigeria which are exempt from the output cut deal due to losses caused by their domestic unrests – adds to oil supplies and make OPEC delegates to question whether their efforts are enough for oil glut reduction. Growing production from the US raises some additional concerns over OPEC’s ability to reduce the oil output. Baker Hughes Inc. reported last week that American drillers have added 6 rigs to the previous count of 741. The number of rigs was rising in last 22 weeks. It is the longest run in 30 years. The American Petroleum Institute published an updated data on the US crude inventories yesterday. According to the API estimates, the US stockpiles dropped by 2.72 million barrels in the past week. The drag factor is that gasoline supplies continued to rise as American refineries increased their production capacities. In today’s spotlight will be the official data on the US stockpiles. If it confirms the data from private source released yesterday, the oil prices might get some modest support. In the long-term, many analysts predict a further decline in oil prices. The Bank of Russian in its latest monetary policy reports presented an extremely sobering outlook on oil. The bank’s officials believe that with an economic slowdown in China and general ebbing demand for energy, the oil prices could slump to $25 per barrel by mid-2018. Some other thinktanks believe that countries’ efforts to comply with Paris climate accord may become an additional headwind for oil crude futures. Such oil giants as Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell risk to lose significant parts of their revenues, once the international climate targets are met. More than $2 trillion of planned investments in the oil and gas fields by 2025 may become redundant if governments increase their efforts to lower carbon emissions and limit global warming to 2°C (the information is retrieved from the Carbon Tracker thinktank and a group of institutional investors). The money spent on the extension of Kashagan (dubbed as “cash all gone”) in Kazakhstan as well as on the Bonga Southwest and Bonga North in Nigeria will unlikely bring expected revenue in case of the realization of the 2-degree scenario. In the following article, we gave just a short sketch of the oil fundamentals. Most of them are headwinds for oil prices. In the short term, however, the oil prices may partially recover their losses (if incoming economic data is positive). Extreme spikes and a clear return to the levels above $50 are unlikely though. Increased compliance with the OPEC deal should offer only modest support to oil prices. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil_market_overview_1738

GBP/USD: BEARISH "PENNANT" 07:09 21.06.2017 The last "Rising Wedge" has been broken. In this case, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2581 - 1.2514. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward correction towards the closest resistance at 1.2581 - 1.2634. Bears faced support at 1.2634. Also, there's a bearish "Pennant", so the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.2581 - 1.2514. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to achieve resistance at 1.2581. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bearish_%22pennant%22_1735

EUR/USD: BEARISH "FLAG" 07:06 21.06.2017 The 89 Moving Average has been broken, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1108 - 1.1075. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1108 - 1.1131. The price is consolidating along support at 1.1131. Also, there's a bearish "Flag", so the pair is likely going to reach the closest support at 1.1108 - 1.1075. If we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will have a green light to deliver a local correction. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bearish_%22flag%22_1734

USD/JPY: YEN IS PLAYING WITH SHARK 06:31 21.06.2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, target 88.6% of the inverted Shark pattern has been achieved. The risks of the pullback towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% levels within the transformation of the Shark pattern into pattern 5-0 increased. Rebounds from the support can be used for the opening of long positions. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the Bears expect to return quotes within the borders of the downward trading channel after the realization of the Shark pattern. The Bulls have other plans. They will protect the 110.6 level trying to prevent the activation of the pattern. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_yen_is_playing_with_shark_1732

GOLD IS SQUEEZED IN THE CHANNEL 06:27 21.06.2017 On the daily chart of gold, quotes approached the lower border of the upward trading channel. A successful test of the support with the subsequent breakout of the neckline of the Head and shoulders pattern located near $1,230 may result in a quotes' downfall towards $1,210 and $1,190. On the hourly chart of gold, the Head and Shoulders pattern has worked out. There is a change in the short-term trend or a pullback within the near-term upward trend. A rollback from $1,255 and $ 1, 260 levels may result in the opening of short positions. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_is_squeezed_in_the_channel__1731

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 21 06:03 21.06.2017 These last two days passed without any key data releases, but with more UK political uncertainty (the UK government is still not formed), an extremely dovish Mark Carney overlaid with a significant downfall in oil prices. The yen was the Constant Tin Soldier in the Asian session as it managed to fight the beefy USD. USD/JPY fell below 111.30 earlier today. The news about the recent North Korean missile test contributed to the JPY strengthening. The British pound dropped to 1.2600 yesterday after BoE Governor Carney signaled that he is in no hurry to raise rates, putting a special emphasis on the weakness the British economy might further experience in the course of Brexit negotiations. While there are three MPC voters worrying about heightened inflation rates, Carney’s speech made market participants believe that the BoE will unlikely provide a rate hike by the end of this year. Tonight, we will continue to keep our focus on the GBP with the Queen’s speech to Parliament which is due at 11:30 GMT and the UK monthly public-sector net borrowing report. The euro slumped to 1.1116 against the USD in the Asian session. The downward momentum is not as strong as USD Bulls would like it to be. A mixed set of Fed’s speeches made traders a little bit confused. Charles Evans and Robert Kaplan sounded dovish overnight. The former one said that he is getting very nervous in the light of a multi-month run of low inflation readings. Robert Kaplan said he needs more evidence that low inflation rates are temporary before enacting additional tightening measures. Fed Chair Yellen and NY’s Bill Dudley were explicitly hawkish as they were speaking of current Fed’s monetary policy cycle. We don’t expect significant moves from EUR/USD today as no significant economic releases are seen on the horizon. Perhaps, only one is worthy – the US existing home sales report which is out at 17:00 GMT+3. At the present moment, the pair is trading at 1.1130 – a little bit higher from yesterday’s low. There is ample room for further EUR weakness towards the solid support at 1.1105. A break below this level will allow us to target the lower ones – 1.1070. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.1155 but the euro will have to put a great deal of effort to break it. Aussie fell to 0.7555. The outlook for AUD/USD is still neutral though. The pair will likely trade in the range of 0.7525 – 0.7630 in the short-term without any significant economic releases that could spur buying/selling of the AUD. The kiwi has also lost a little ground against USD. NZD/USD fell to 0.7225 in the Asian session notwithstanding the fact that the yesterday’s Global Dairy Auction ended with almost no change in the dairy prices. USD/CAD is trading much higher from the weekly opening level – at 1.3283 from 1.3212 – mainly due to falling oil prices. Brent oil futures slumped to $45.45 yesterday as investors lost their faith in OPEC’s capacity to reduce oil glut despite with unprecedented compliance with the output deal. The oil stockpiles in a number of importing country do not shrink significantly. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_21_1728

GBP/USD: POUND FORMED NEW LOCAL LOWS 05:34 21.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2570; resistance – 1.2650. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.2570; SL — 1.2550; TP1 — 1.2650; TP2 — 1.2710. Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; the cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices made the new lows for the last two months and the marker is oversold. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_pound_formed_new_local_lows_1727

EUR/USD: EURO GOING TO 4W-LOWS 05:33 21.06.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.1060; resistance – 1.1140. Trade recommendations: Sell — 1.1130; SL — 1.1150; TP1 — 1.1080; TP2 – 1.1060 Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; the cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but falling Kijun-sen; the prices are on the 4W-lows. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_euro_going_to_4w_lows_1726

GBP/CAD REVERSED FROM RESISTANCE ZONE 17:46 20.06.2017 GBP/CAD reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 1.6520 GBP/CAD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.7000 and the lower trendline of the daily up channel from January (acting as resistance now after it was broken recently). The downward reversal from this resistance zone accelerated the active minor C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of May. GBP/CAD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.6520 (low of the previous waves (a) and 2 and the target price for the completion of the active wave (2)). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_cad_reversed_from_resistance_zone_1717

GBP/AUD FALLING INSIDE MINOR IMPULSE WAVE 1 17:44 20.06.2017 GBP/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave 1 Next sell target - 1.6450 GBP/AUD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 1, which belongs to the sharp primary impulse wave ? from the start of May. The price earlier broke through the support zone lying between the round support level 1.7000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave © from the middle of March – which strengthened the bearish pressure on this pair. GBP/AUD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.6450 (previous resistance level from February). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_aud_falling_inside_minor_impulse_wave_1_1716

USD/JPY: "HIGH WAVE" AND "THREE METHODS" 13:20 20.06.2017 We've got a bearish "Harami" at the local high. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the 21 and 55 Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the upper "Window". The last "Window" has been broken, but there're a "High Wave" and a "Three Methods" patterns, so the price is likely going to test this "Window" once again. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will have an option to deliver a new local high. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_%22high_wave%22_and_%22three_methods%22_1712

EUR/USD: "DARK CLOUD" PATTERN 13:17 20.06.2017 The last "Dark Cloud" pattern led to the current decline. Also, the 89 Moving Average is acting as support, so the market is likely going to test the 55 MA in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will have a green light to push the price even lower. The upper "Window" has acted as resistance, so we've got an "Engulfing" pattern on this level. At the same time, there's a bullish "Doji", so the pair is likely going to test the Moving Averages in the coming hours. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22dark_cloud%22_pattern_1711

EUR/USD: ANOTHER BEARISH IMPULSE 10:58 20.06.2017 Wave 2 may have been formed like a zigzag, so there's a bearish impulse in wave (i). In this case, we're likely going to have another impulse in wave (iii) in the short term. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level. There's a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, so we've got a downward impulse in wave i. Wave ii is about to end, which means bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave iii of (iii) in the coming hours. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_another_bearish_impulse_1709

GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO TEST CLOSEST RESISTANCE 07:30 20.06.2017 There's a developing "Rising Wedge". The price is testing the lower side of this pattern. So, the pair is likely going to test support at 1.2705 - 1.2678. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area arrives, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2768 - 1.2793 as an intraday target. The price is consolidating right under the broken "Wedge". In this case, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2768. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the next support at 1.2690 - 1.2672. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bulls_going_to_test_closest_resistance_1706

EUR/USD: BROKEN UPTREND 07:26 20.06.2017 The price has broken the last uptrend, but the 89 Moving Average acted as support. However, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the next support at 1.1131 - 1.1108. If we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1165. There's a "Double Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.1181 - 1.1193 during the day. At the same time, if a pullback from these levels happens, bears will have a green light to catch the nearest support at 1.1131 - 1.1108. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_broken_uptrend_1705