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Everything posted by riki143
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FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: CONSOLIDATION BETWEEN 34 & 55 MA The 34 Moving Average has acted as support, so the price is consolidating. Also, there's a "V-Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1307 - 1.1287 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.1356 - 1.1398. The price is consolidating between 34 & 55 Moving Averages. It seems like bulls are ready to achieve the next resistance at 1.1354 - 1.1365. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will have a green light to deliver a decline in the direction of support at 1.1287. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_consolidation_between_34___55_ma_2040 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/CHF: FRANC STUMBLED ACROSS DOJI-BAR 09:39 06.07.2017 On the USD/CHF daily chart, the formation of doji-bar with the long upper shadow tells us about the Bulls’ weakness. Bears are ready to restore the downward trend towards target 224%, 127.2% in the AB=CD and Crab patterns. But before this, they need to test the support at 0.9636 (88.6% from the XA wave). On the USD/CHF hourly chart the inability of Bulls to push quotes beyond the borders of the downward trading channel and return of quotes to the borders of the upward trading channel will tell us about their weakness. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf%3a_franc_stumbled_across_doji_bar_2038 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: THERE MIGHT BE A REBOUND 09:36 06.07.2017 On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a correction towards the upward near-term trend. If Bulls manage to consolidate above the level of 1.344 (78.6% from the downward near-term wave), the risks of the continuation of the rally towards the target 127.2% in the Crab pattern will increase. A downfall of the euro towards the area of 1.1255 – 1.129 can be used for opening long positions. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, a downfall of quotes towards the lower borders of the short-term and near-term trading channels followed by the rebound will allow us to find the most beneficial entry point. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_supported_by_cloud_2003 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 6 08:46 06.07.2017 The US dollar suffered losses overnight following a bit divided FOMC meeting minutes which disappointed investors expecting confirmation of Janet Yellen’s hawkishness. There were several rather than just a few members who expressed their concerns that inflation rates might not pick up to the extent that it would justify a further normalization of monetary policy. Fed’s official failed to express an undivided opinion on when to start balance sheet run-off. Some wished it happened in August – September, others asked for deferral pointing out at easing financial conditions. A formal announcement will probably come at the Fed’s July meeting. Mixed minutes didn’t result in an extreme USD depreciation, though. Traders remain focused on Friday’s labor market report with quite strong data (latest ISM report indicated that manufacturing jobs are currently on the rise). The euro stabilized against the USD. It holds firmly around 1.1340 for the third day now. In the past few sessions, we see some improvements in the Eurozone official data (upgraded German manufacturing and service sector activities, higher PMI indices (expect Italian PMI) and a rebound in retail sales). The positive data flow undoubtedly strengthened the currency’s resilience to the greenback’s assaults. Today traders should focus on the ADP employment survey – a major pre-NFP report, and more importantly the ISM non-manufacturing survey. Also, we will receive the ECB account of the last monetary policy meeting at 2:30 pm MT time. We don’t expect it becomes a tailwind for the euro given the biased commentaries from various ECB’s officials. Most likely, it will show that not everyone in the central bank recognized the need to reduce monetary policy stimulus. Aussie added a few points in the Asian session on the big Australian surplus announcement but failed to hold its gains and bounced back to 0.7600. But we cannot take the following dip for the start of the bearish reversal. Most likely it is a continuation of the post-RBA’s consolidation phase. AUD/USD will likely trade sideways within the range of 0.7535 – 0.7680 in the upcoming sessions. USD/CAD moved higher in Tokyo morning as a drop in oil prices capped the recent Bank of Canada’s inspired rally of the Loonie. Brent and WTI futures fell following comments from Russia that it doesn’t want deeper production cuts. In today’s spotlight – Canada’s building permits and trade balance data coming at 3:30 pm MT time. Sterling is trading at 1.2940 in the broad consolidation range of 1.2820 – 1.3030. A break of its upper border will allow the GBP to hit higher levels. But this might happen only if today’s economic data out of the US is below the market’s expectations. There are no UK releases scheduled for today. The focus will on tomorrow’s industrial production and trade balance reports that might disappoint traders given the lower PMI we got earlier. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_6_2034 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
GBP/USD FALLING INSIDE INTERMEDIATE IMPULSE WAVE (3) 17:09 05.07.2017 GBP/USD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3) Next sell target - 1.2750 GBP/USD continues to fall inside the intermediate impulse wave (3), which started earlier from the strong resistance zone lying between the round resistance level 1.3000 (which also stopped the previous primary ABC correction ? in the middle of May) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star. Given the overbought daily Stochastic - GBP/USD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.2750. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd_falling_inside_intermediate_impulse_wave_%283%29_2021 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/CHF REACHED SELL TARGET 0.9550 17:08 05.07.2017 USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9550 Next buy target - 0.9750 USD/CHF has been rising in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier upward reversal form the support area lying between the powerful support level 0.9550 (which has been reversing the price from last August and which was set as the sell target for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. USD/CHFis expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.9750 (which reversed the previous minor correction in June). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf_reached_sell_target_0.9550_2020 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/JPY: PRICE FIXATED ABOVE THE "WINDOW" 16:11 05.07.2017 The price fixated above the "Window", so we've got bullish patterns like a "High Wave" and a "Hammer". Under this circumstances, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the pair even higher. There's a "Shooting Star", which has been formed at the last high. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest "Window" during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a new local high More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_price_fixated_above_the_%22window%22_2019 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: BULLISH "HIGH WAVE" 16:09 05.07.2017 The price is still declining, so the last "Three Methods" pattern is still on the table. Also, there isn't any reversal model so far. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the lower "Window". We've got a bullish "High Wave", but confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another decline towards the 144 MA. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bullish_%22high_wave%22_2018 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
IRON ORE MARKET DYNAMICS MAY HURT AUSSIE 13:36 05.07.2017 Aussie dropped to 0.7595 in the recent session from the Monday’s opening price of 0.7680. The Reserve Bank of Australia released a neutral statement on Tuesday without even a partly hawkish tilt the market participants waited since the last week central bankers’ meeting. We expect Aussie to slide even lower as there is a risk of iron ore prices falling lower in the longer term. Iron ore futures were under pressure during almost three months, then, at the end of the second quarter, they managed to return into bull-market territory mainly on a surge driven by mills in China making additional purchases to replenish stockpiles, with high-quality ore in demand. They almost hit $65 level on June 29 which is the highest price since May 4. According to the Metal Bulletin Ltd., iron ore prices increased more than 20% from this year low of $53.36 posted just a couple of week ago. Daniel Gardwell, a leading economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., explained the recent surge as follows: trading activity had increased significantly as buyers returned to the spot market after the long period of sitting on the sidelines. Nevertheless, in the near term, some banks expect some weakness in iron ore futures given the surging supply. The top producers are expected to boost their exports 3.2% to 301 million tons this quarter, according to the estimates of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the price is heading lower and Citigroup Inc. sees it dropping to the $40s on the back of increased production, rising stockpiles, even if China’s steel production will hold at its current high levels in the upcoming months. Peter O’Connor, an analyst at Shaw & Partners, believes that iron ores prices will slide towards $55 by the end of this year that is iron ores’ marginal cost of production. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/iron_ore_market_dynamics_may_hurt_aussie_2015 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: DEVELOPING WAVE (III) 13:35 05.07.2017 There's a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, so the price is declining in wave . The main intraday target is 0/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for an upward correction. Wave (ii) may have been finished, so there's a developing wave (iii). Previously, bulls have formed wave [v] of C. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards 0/8 MM Level during the day. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_developing_wave_%28iii%29_2014 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
GOLD MARKET OVERVIEW 11:44 05.07.2017 Gold prices dropped sharply this Monday to $1218 (the lowest level in 2 months). The relative strength of the USD and stronger equities and higher yields kept traders away from precious metal. The rally in equities and yields has started last week following a hawkish shift in tone among key central banks. The heads of major banks admitted that they need to change their dovish postures and partially withdraw monetary stimuli prematurely, before the extreme hike in inflation rates. This spurred a global-wide selling in government bonds and delivered a sudden jolt higher to yields. The Federal Reserve has already started to put into life their plans by lifting its benchmark interest rates, signaling the start of the QE wind down. On Tuesday, the bullion ticked higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia failed to show its intention to remove some monetary accommodation any time soon. The Aussie and some of the government yields were sold quickly upon the publication of the board’s statement. If other central banks fail to deliver on their recent promises (changing their dovish postures to hawkish ones) as well, the gold prices will start rising again. The Bank of Canada is coming up next to deliver its rate and monetary policy statements (on June 12). A “no change” decision will be disappointing for Loonie buyers but probably the balm for the bullion traders. Another trigger for gold prices was the escalation of the conflict in the Korean peninsula. Gold is a well-known safe-haven asset that tends to appreciate in times of crises, political and military disturbances. North Korea successfully tested its new ballistic missile capable of carrying a larger and heavier nuclear warhead. South Korean and American troops have recently fired their own missiles into the waters off South Korea to demonstrate their deep strike precision capability. A de-escalation of tensions between the two Koreas will probably divert traders from buying non-risky but low-return assets. The prime minister of Japan Abe seeks to discuss this conflict with Russian and Chinese leaders at G-20 summit (which starts on Friday) and force them to make an effort to appease North Korea. In the recent session, the gold ticked lower once again. Now it is trading near 1222.50. From here it may slide lower towards the supports at $1215 (two-month low) and at $1197 (March 15 low). The immediate resistance can be found at $1235. Its break will allow us to touch $1250 level. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_market_overview_2009 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PATTERN 11:04 05.07.2017 The pound is consolidating along support at 1.2926. Also, there's a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.2887 - 1.2860. At the same time, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will have a green light to reach resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2976. The price is moving up and down between the Moving Averages. It seems like bears are ready to reach the next support at 1.2871 - 1.2860. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards resistance at 1.2947 - 1.2964. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_%22double_top%22_pattern_2008 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: "V-TOP" PATTERN 11:00 05.07.2017 The consolidating between the levels 1.1365 - 1.1340. Also, we've got a "V-Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1307 - 1.1287. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an option to have an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1365 - 1.1398. There's a consolidation, which is taking place near the 34 Moving Average. However, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.1307 - 1.1287 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to reach the closest resistance at 1.1376 - 1.1398. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22v_top%22_pattern_2007 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY: BULLS ARE GOING TO ATTACK ONCE AGAIN 10:00 05.07.2017 On the EUR/JPY daily chart, there is an uptrend. Bulls failed to test the resistance at 128.9 (61.8% from the XA wave of the Bat pattern). A successful retest will increase the risks for the realization of the targets in junior and senior AB=CD patterns. They form the convergence zone 129.95 – 130.4. On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, after the long rise, the pair stepped into the consolidation range of 127.5 – 128.9. A break of its lower border might lead to the development of the correction. In contrast, a successful test of the upper border will lead to the restoration of the rally. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_jpy%3a_bulls_are_going_to_attack_once_again_2005 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
AUD/NZD: BULLS BREAK WEDGES 09:59 05.07.2017 On the AUD/NZD daily chart, there is a rollback towards 61.8% from the wave 4—5 of the Expanding Wedge pattern. The failure of the Bears to keep quotes below the convergence zone 1.0507 – 10512 will tell us about their weakness and might lead to the development of the correction towards the long-term downward trend. In contrast, a fall of quotes below 1.0397 and 1.0377 will increase the risks of continuation of the downward rally. On the AUD/NZD hourly chart, the rise of quotes towards 61.8% and 78.6% levels from the CD wave of the Shark pattern will allow the Bulls to restore the short-term trend. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_nzd%3a_bulls_break_wedges_2004 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
AUD/USD: AUSSIE SUPPORTED BY CLOUD 09:05 05.07.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7600; resistance – 0.7650, 0.7690. Trade recommendations: Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7730. Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, horizontal Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices supported by Senkou Span A and the market may go higher. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_supported_by_cloud_2003 -
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riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: EURO IN CORRECTION TO CLOUD 09:04 05.07.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.1315; resistance – 1.1390. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.1320; SL — 1.1300; TP1 — 1.1390; TP2 – 1.1430. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, falling Tenkan-sen; the market is in the correction to the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_euro_in_correction_to_cloud_2002 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 5 08:44 05.07.2017 It has not been a big session if we refer to the price actions. As the US markets were closed yesterday for the Independence Day holiday, today’s and overnight’s liquidity was thinner than normal elsewhere. The largest moves were registered in AUD/USD and USD/JPY. Aussie negatively reacted to the RBA’s “no change” in the monetary policy settings. While everybody expected a board leaving its cash rate on hold, the market participants waited something that could be inferred as at least having a partly hawkish tilt. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s officials hardly moved away from their neutral stance, remained cautious of subdued real wage growth and housing markets, refused to remove their monetary accommodation. The yen gained some strength following the escalation of the conflict on the Korean peninsula. North Korea conducted a test of its new intercontinental ballistic missile that can carry a large and heavy nuclear warhead. South Korea and the US responded with firing missiles to show the deep strike precision of their weaponry. USD/JPY swiftly slipped 112.70 following the missile launches. Not it is trading near 113.20. There is a strong resistance ahead lying at 113.50 which if broken may push the quotes even higher. On the downside, we suggest targeting the support at 112.20. The euro skipped some points overnight as the ECB’ chiefs Peter Praet and Nowotny failed to surprise markets with their speeches. Economist Praet said that the bank’s inflation forecasts are “crucially contingent” on very easy financing conditions (there is no even a hint for a hawkish tilt as you see). Governing Council member (interest rate setter) Nowotny noted that normalization of the extremely loose policy will be conducted as soon as economy allows, possibly the ECB will be a bit more hawkish, but nor overly so. EUR/USD is at 1.3555 now a bit higher from yesterday’s low. While short-term downward pressure has waned somewhat, a further move below 1.3330 is still not ruled out. On the upside, there are some resistances at 1.3350/1.3400 levels. In the European session later today, we will get the second estimates of the European countries’ services PMI and monthly update of the European retail sales. The key focus will be on the Fed’s meeting minutes, though, which are due at 9:00 pm MT time. We don’t expect they might surprise markets somehow; there has been already a full exposition of the Fed’s QE wind-down process. But we will see what they bring us. USD/CAD ticked a bit higher in Tokyo morning to 1.2945 after falling to 1.2907 in the course of the past few sessions due to hawkish commentary from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz. Canadian rate hike is now priced in a 87% chance (the rate decision will be delivered next week on Wednesday). Oil prices were trying hard to stabilize around $50 per barrel. Brent oil futures are now at $49.55 one pip higher from its weekly opening price. It may slide lower from the current levels in the absence of data/event stimuli. NZD/USD fell 0.7260 overnight on the marginally lower dairy prices. In the Asian session, kiwi added some points and moved higher to 0.7286. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_5_2001 -
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riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/JPY: BULLISH "ENGULFING" PATTERN 15:08 04.07.2017 The price fixated above the "Window", so there's a bullish "High Wave" pattern, which hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the pair is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest resistance. We've got a bullish "Engulfing" pattern, so the price is rising. However, if a pullback from the upper "Window" happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a local bearish correction. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bullish_%22engulfing%22_pattern_1986 -
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riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST 89 MA 15:04 04.07.2017 There are two bearish "Three Methods" patterns in a row. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards the lower "Window", which could be a departure point for another upward price movement. We don't have any reversal pattern so far, so bears are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, we could have a local correction. However, we should keep in mind the 144 MA as the next bearish target. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bears_going_to_test__89_ma_1985 -
FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News
riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
BITCOIN: IS THERE A BUBBLE? 14:03 04.07.2017 Bitcoin hovered to $3000 in recent weeks more than doubling its value since the beginning of this year. Anyone smart or lucky enough to have bought a pile of these coins in July 2010, when the price stood steadily at $0.05, would now have earned a great fortune without even stirring a finger. From day to day the digital currency’s value rises with unprecedented speed. It got a substantial boost and attracted additional investors’ attention after some governments made it a legal form of payments in their countries. At the present moment, Bitcoin continues its seemingly endless bull rally (although with some shakeouts –here we refer to the June 12 surprise retracement), gaining additional 300 points from its recent downfall and picking convincingly above $2590. Will it rise higher? Is there a bubble? These are the questions most traders ask nowadays. There are tons of articles and personal opinions labeling Bitcoin’s current sustainable surge as being in a bubble. The main evidence for a bubble lies at least on the ease and on the speed with which people are making money off of the recent Bitcoin’s swing. For some analysts, easy profits are the first indication of the lack of price stability in the longer term. Other experts thoughtfully explicate Bitcoin’s gains and say that there is no bubble in effect. They site at least three reasons in Bitcoin’s defense. The first one is that its decentralization. Bitcoin is immune to any sort of manipulations; there is no special entity that would authorize the issuance of additional coins or that would take control of Bitcoin’s value. The second reason is the Bitcoin’s limited supply – there only 21 million of cryptocurrencies in circulation. The fact that all Bitcoin transactions are logged in the Blockchain stems the risks of fraud. So, Bitcoin’s transactions are secure; this makes the digital currency even more valuable. The journalists from the Economist took nobody’s side in this big analytical dispute and dubbed the Bitcoin’s recent appreciation a healthy bubble (a bubble but with probably good consequences for investors). Overall, most of the strategists and billionaire investors remain optimistic towards cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs analysts have recently said that in the longer term Bitcoin after a small rollback will bounce to much higher levels in the area between $3212 and $3915. They recommend their clients to arm themselves with lots of patience before gaining eminent profits from future Bitcoin’s rise. And you, do you believe in the further Bitcoin’s appreciation? More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/_bitcoin%3a_is_there_a_bubble__1983 -
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riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: PRICE DECLINING IN WAVE 13:30 04.07.2017 The price is still declining in wave . Previously, wave [v] of C has been ended near 7/8 MM Level. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards 4/8 MM Level. There's a bearish impulse, which could be wave (i), so bulls are likely going to deliver wave (ii) in the coming hours. Nevertheless, we could have another bearish impulse in wave (iii) afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_price_declining_in_wave_%5bi%5d_1982 -
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riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD: PRICE DECLINING IN WAVE 13:30 04.07.2017 The price is still declining in wave . Previously, wave [v] of C has been ended near 7/8 MM Level. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards 4/8 MM Level. There's a bearish impulse, which could be wave (i), so bulls are likely going to deliver wave (ii) in the coming hours. Nevertheless, we could have another bearish impulse in wave (iii) afterwards. More: v -
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riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
THE MISSING FACTOR IN YOUR FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 12:02 04.07.2017 In this article we will tell about one of the most significant fundamental factors the traders sometimes overlook while analyzing the currency’s movement. This is a country’s foreign exchange reserves. Then, we will talk about the banks’ “favorite” currencies (constituting the great share of the banks’ foreign reserves) in the recent years. Almost all countries hold foreign currency reserves for multiple purposes. For a country with a fixed exchange rate and free cross-border capital flows, a large stock of reserves is indispensable for the maintenance of the desired exchange rate. A good example would be China, which pegs the value of its domestic currency – the yuan (renminbi) – to the USD. When China increases its holdings of the US dollars, it raises its values as compared to the yuan. That makes the country’s exports cheaper compared to the good of American origin. From today’s headlines: China’s state-own banks selling USD/CNY to support the yuan – the result of this operation – depreciation of the USD against CNY. For an advanced country with a floating exchange rate, a smaller, but still sufficient stock of reserves is required. The following country’s interventions in the exchange markets are normally infrequent. The primary purpose for holding the reserves in foreign currencies, therefore, may relate to the risk that extreme market disorder could compromise the functioning of the FX markets in ways that create significant difficulties for the country’s real economy. The advanced countries, like Japan, would also be willing to keep some foreign currencies to artificially support their currencies from unexpected valuations. Another purpose for the countries to keep sufficient foreign currency reserves is to be able to pay for three to six months of imports, to cover the country's debt payments and current account deficits for the next 12 months. So, as you see, the decision of a bank to stockpile a certain foreign currency affects this currency’s and the bank’s domestic currency exchange rates. With this axiom we now may explicate the recent appreciation of some major currencies. The USD has crashed down significantly this year (compared to the last year so-called “Trump’s rally). In contrast, the yen and the Aussie experienced some surprising rallies since the beginning of this year. What are the primary causes of the following FX market’s moves? To some extent, it’s the central banks’ handiwork. The International Monetary Fund released data last week on the composition of global foreign exchange reserves. We have identified some changing dynamics in the buy-and-hold investors’ preferences in the past few years. The British pound was kicked out from the central banks’ list of all-time favorites constituting the largest shares of foreign currency reserves. The yen and Aussie were among the beneficiaries in the first quarter of this year as you may see from the chart. The same can be said about their outstanding performance in the given period. In the second quarter, investors switched their attention to the euro and cooled on JPY and AUD. The euro picked up in the course of the period. Source: IMF Despite some drops in the demand for the USD, it still remains the preeminent reserve currency. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the_missing_factor_in_your_fundamental_analysis_1981 -
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riki143 replied to internationallove's topic in Technical Analysis
GBP/USD: CONFIRMED "DOUBLE TOP" 11:42 04.07.2017 There's a "Double Top", which has been confirmed, so bears found support at 1.2926. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2887. However, if a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2976. The price is consolidating between the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. So, bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2976. If we have a pullback from this area, there'll be an option to have another decline towards support at 1.2926 - 1.2915. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_confirmed_%22double_top%22_1980