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EUR/USD: BEARS GOING TO REACH THE CLOSEST SUPPORT 10:45 10.07.2017 The price is consolidating under resistance at 1.1443. Also, we've got two "V-Top" patterns in a row, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1365 - 1.1354. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards resistance at 1.1425 - 1.1444. There's a consolidation, which is taking place above the 34 Moving Average. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the closest support at 1.1365 - 1.1354 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will have a green light to test the next resistance at 1.1425 - 1.1444. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bears_going_to_reach_the_closest_support_2101

GOLD: BEARS HAVE GREAT PLANS 09:42 10.07.2017 On the daily chart of gold, breaks of the lower border of the upward trading channel and the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern may result in a further downfall. The gold continues its downward movement towards $1189 and $1160. A break of the resistance $1209 will allow the Bears to hit these levels. On the hourly chart of gold, a return of quotes towards $1229 will increase the risks of the realization of the expanding wedge pattern and correction towards $1241 and $1252. If Bears manage to hold the resistance at $1218, there will be a continuation of the downward movement. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold%3a_bears_have_great_plans_2096

USD/JPY: BULLS WERE SET FREE 09:40 10.07.2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, the exit of quotes beyond the limits of the long-term downward channel followed by the successful test of the resistance at 113.3 allowed the Bears to continue the realization of the Butterfly pattern. Its target 127.2% is located near 117.4. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the realization of the Dragon and AB=CD patterns continues. Target 200% of the AB=CD pattern is fulfilled. This increases the risks of the quotes’ rollback. The current trend is still bullish, thus corrections towards 113.75 and 113.45 can be used for opening long positions. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bulls_were_set_free_2095

MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 10 08:49 10.07.2017 Leaders from the world's leading economies broke with U.S. President Donald Trump on climate policy at a G20 summit held in Hamburg last week. On trade an investment, there were some usual platitudes about the countries’ commitment to open their markets, to fight protectionism and unfair trade practices with the legitimate trade instruments. These latter pledges were at US insistence. EC President Jean-Claude Juncker made clear that the European Union would act swiftly introducing countermeasures if the US impose steel tariffs. A decision could come any day the affected countries have already complained to the WTO. That is something that would put a drag on commodity-link currencies. Resuming shortly the recent G20 meeting: the world’s leaders walked away hearing what they wanted to hear. They hardly changed anything, remained of the same mind they were at the start of the summit. But the silver lining is that they made dozens of fairly beautiful shots. This week will be especially important for the Canadian dollar which has appreciated to 1.2855 last week on Friday’s employment reports that beat market expectations. This increases the probability of the Bank of Canada’s rate hike by 0.25% on Wednesday. A number of hawkish comments from the BOC’s officials overrode the breakdown in commodity and significantly strengthened Loonies in the course of the past weeks. The US steel tariffs or rate states would send USD/CAD higher. The yen has weakened in Tokyo morning on a big miss for machinery orders and a speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda revealing a “no change” in the bank’s current ultra-loose monetary policy settings. USD/JPY is trading at 114.15 of writing just 20 pips from May’s high of 114.35. A break of this level could lead towards the significant resistance at 115.50. The outlook will remain bullish until quotes slide below 113.00. Sterling was a big loser in the end of last week after missing industrial production, weaker construction output, and poor trade figures. Now, GBP/USD trades at 1.2900. The technical outlook is still neutral even though there is a potential for the slide of quotes towards 1.2800. Aussie and Kiwi are both higher against USD in the Asian session. AUD/USD is at 0.7610 in the consolidation range of 0.7540 – 0.7660. Kiwi almost reached 0.7280. it will likely trade sideways in the upcoming sessions as there are no significant releases that would create a great swing or trough. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_10__2093

EUR/USD IS STILL BULLISH, LOOKS FOR A LOWER LEG 02:43 10.07.2017 The EUR/USD pair is following a bullish bias across the markets and it continues to strengthen the current path with a consolidation above the 200 SMA at H4 chart. Around 1.1446 it started to correct the overall bias, but it was blocked by the 50 SMA. However, we’re forecasting another lower leg to test the range between the 1.1282 and 1.1233 levels, at which could gain momentum to resume the bullish bias towards the 1.1523 zone (-23.6%). RSI indicator is still at the positive territory, supporting the upside path. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd_is_still_bullish%2c_looks_for_a_lower_leg_2090

USD/CAD: OUTLOOK FOR JULY 10-14 16:08 07.07.2017 The commodity-sensitive Loonie has appreciated to its strongest level since September (1.2910) due to surging oil prices and upbeat labor market data released on Friday. Next week, traders will be focused on the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting on June 12. Expectations for tightening have surged to 85% from just 4% a month ago as a number of hawkish comment from the BOC’s senior officials has increased in the past weeks. Some analysts believe that traders are overestimating the central bank’s willingness to raise rates. So, staying long in the loonie is not as clear cut as everybody thinks. Following the BOC’s monetary meeting the traders’ focus will shift towards Janet Yellen’s testimony scheduled for Wednesday-Thursday and the US inflation and retail sales data coming on Friday at 3:30 pm MT time. A positive oil market dynamics triggered by a possible decline in the US oil production or drops in inventory data will help commodity-linked Loonie to rise higher. USD/CAD is trading around 1.2909 at the time of writing. There is a scope for extension towards 1.2820 (last September low). The odds for breaking lower levels is not high at this stage but the Bank of Canada’s rate hike could significantly improve them. On the upside, there are some resistances at 1.3015 and 1.3140. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_outlook_for_july_10_14_2081

USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR JULY 10 -14 16:06 07.07.2017 The yen was one of the biggest losers in the past week mainly due to stronger USD which got traction on the upbeat economic releases out of the US. An additional drag on Japan’s currency came on Friday as the country’s central bank signaled its decision to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to keep 10-year yields at around zero percent level. As a result, USD/JPY spiked above 113.90 at the end of the past week. Next week will start with Japan’s core machinery orders, economic watchers’ sentiment, and current account figures. Then, traders will be mostly focused on the US economic releases. The US producer price index and unemployment claims will the released on Thursday. On Friday, we will receive inflation and retail sales figures out of the US at 3:30 pm MT time. The key event of the week is Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony scheduled for 5:00 pm MT time Thursday. Regardless of the recent gains of the US dollar, the current technical outlook is still neutral. USD/JPY is trading in the broad range of 108.80 – 114.35 levels. A break of the upper limit of the range will open the way towards resistance at 115.50 last touched on March 10. On the downside, there are some supports at 112.90, 112.75 ahead of the psychologically important level of 112.00. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_outlook_for_july_10__14_2080

USD/JPY: NEW HIGH COMING SOON 14:23 07.07.2017 There are a "High Wave" and a "Hammer", but we don't have any reversal pattern. So, the pair is likely going to continue rising towards the nearest resistance in the short term. We've got a "Doji" and a "Shooting Star" at the last high, so bears are likely going to test the closest "Window" during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have a new high shortly. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_new_high_coming_soon_2079

EUR/USD: "HARAMI" PUSHED PRICE HIGHER 14:21 07.07.2017 The last bullish "Harami" pushed the price higher, so we've got a new local maximum. Also, there isn't any reversal pattern so far. Meanwhile, there's an opportunity to have a local bearish correction towards the nearest support. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to continue moving up afterwards. We've bearish patterns such a "Shooting Star" and a "Tweezers", but both of them haven't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the 55 Moving Average is likely going to act as support in the short term. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22harami%22_pushed_price_higher_2078

AUD/USD: AUSSIE BOUNCED FROM SSB 12:12 07.07.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7570; resistance – 0.7615, 0.7650. Trade recommendations: Buy — 0.7580; SL — 0.7560; TP1 — 0.7650; TP2 — 0.7690. Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but the prices supported by Senkou Span B and entered to the channel Tenkan-Kijun. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_bounced_from_ssb_2075

EUR/USD: EURO TESTED NEW HIGHS 12:10 07.07.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.1390; resistance – 1.1430. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.1390; SL — 1.1370; TP1 — 1.1430; TP2 – 1.1500. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the market going to new highs. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_euro_tested_new_highs_2074

GBP/USD: CONSOLIDATION NEAR 89 MA 10:17 07.07.2017 There's a "Triple Top", which pushed the price to support at 1.2947. So, the pair is likely going to decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2926 - 1.2887. If a pullback from these levels happens, we could have another upward price movement towards resistance at 1.2976 - 1.3013. The price is still consolidating near the 89 Moving Average. Also, there's a "Flag" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2915 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bulls will have an option to reach resistance at 1.2976 - 1.3013 afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_consolidation_near_89_ma_2070

EUR/USD: BEARISH "FLAG" 10:14 07.07.2017 Bulls faced resistance at 1.1425, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1389 - 1.1387. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next support at 1.1443 - 1.1464. The price is consolidating under resistance at 1.1425. Also, there's a "Flag", so bears are likely going to reach the closest support at 1.1387. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.1443 - 1.1464. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bearish_%22flag%22_2069

GBP/USD: POUND CANNOT GET HOME 09:51 07.07.2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, there is a unique situation. Bears cannot return the quotes within the borders of the downwards trading channel. Bulls have no strength to return the pound to the upward trading channel. If target 88.6% of the Shark pattern is fulfilled and the 1-2-3 pattern is formed, there will be a rollback. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, target 113% of the Shark pattern is fulfilled. If bears manage to test the support at 1.2893, there will be a transformation of the Shark pattern into the pattern 5-0. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_pound_cannot_get_home_2068

NZD/USD: KIWI IS ON THE CROSSROADS 09:49 07.07.2017 On the NZD/USD daily chart, there is a correction towards the uptrend. A break of the resistance at 0.7345 will increase the risks for the implementation of the target 113% in the Shark pattern. In contrast, an update of the July low will lead to the development of the correction. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, it seems that Bulls took a break as there is a consolidation after the long-term uptrend. If we are talking about the process of distribution of the short positions, there will be a deep correction. In contrast, the accumulation of long positions will lead to the continuation of the rally. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd%3a_kiwi_is_on_the_crossroads_2067

Banks’ preview: NFP, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings BANKS’ PREVIEW: NFP, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 09:21 07.07.2017 The consensus expectation for the US NFP – 178K jobs. That is stronger than the 138K in May. A number like that (or any other number above 118K) will probably not deter the FED from their planned path. An additional hike is still expected this year as well as a run-off of the QE. Our expectations in brief: the jobless rate is unchanged at 4.3%; average hourly earnings picking up slightly from 0.2% to 0.3%; probably weaker jobless claims. Banks' preview: More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/banks%E2%80%99_preview%3a_nfp%2c_unemployment_rate_and_average_hourly_earnings__2066

MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 7 08:46 07.07.2017 USD/JPY edged higher in the Asian session as the Bank of Japan’s officials have recently said they will start buying unlimited amount of bonds to return the yield back to their zero target. JGB yields were on the, with the 100 year spiking above 0.105%. The pair rose above 113.65 on the announcement. The euro spiked above 1.1425 (o.4% higher) overnight as the ECB minutes indicated that the ECB was on the edge of announcing a taper of its asset purchase program in the near future. The bank will hold its meeting on July 20 next time. ECB’s determinacy to remove its policy accommodation will be push the euro higher. The technical outlook for EUR/USD is neutral. A break of the resistance at 1.1445 will be an indication of the EUR moving into a bullish phase. The British pound also gained some points in the past few sessions. It rose above 1.2970 as the Bank of England’s McCaffery (a dissenter at the last MPC meeting) said that the policy accommodation might be removed in the near-term future. Mostly likely, GBP/USD will trade sideways within the range of 1.2890 – 1.3030 in the upcoming sessions. And only clear break of the upper border of the range will indicate that the euro has moved into a bullish phase. The odds for such move do not appear to be high at the present moment, but they might increase if we get upbeat UK manufacturing production figures and passable goods trade balance figures. Kiwi suffered some losses overnight sliding to 0.7240. We got plenty of US data yesterday. ADP Payrolls were 158K against expected 188K. It could signal downside risks for today’s non-farm payrolls. A stronger than expected non-manufacturing ISM from the US remedied USD losses though. At the present moment, NZD/USD trades at 0.7275. There is a scope for extension of kiwi’s gains to 0.7530. But we wouldn’t rush into longs at this point. The overall outlook for NZD/USD is still neutral. US dollar/Loonie traded higher in Tokyo morning to 1.2990. Crude oil prices declined after a sharp but short-lived boost from a big decline in the US stockpiles faded. Canadian data coming at 3:30 pm will garner a special focus on the back of the next week Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting (at which a rate hike is expected). The major internal focus will on the US labor market report though. The market is currently expecting a payrolls growth of 178K and unchanged unemployment rate. Most analysts believe that NFP above 118K would still be enough for the Fed to continue the normalization of its monetary policy. Other events that is coming up: a Fed monetary policy report is about to be presented to Congress ahead of Yellen’s testimony next week; the G-20 summit in Hamburg with the US President Donald Trump and his Russian homologue Vladimir Putin meeting to be held on its sidelines. Meanwhile, the investigations intro Trump’s presidential campaign collusion with Russia continues. It will be interesting to know whether Trump takes a hard line against Kremlin in the future or not. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_7_2065

USD/JPY: "HIGH WAVE" AND "HAMMER" 15:58 06.07.2017 The price is consolidating, but we've got bullish patterns like a "High Wave" and a "Hammer". Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance level in the short term. The upper "Window" has acted as resistance, so there's a bearish "Harami", which hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the price is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_%22high_wave%22_and_%22hammer%22_2052

EUR/USD: BULLISH "HARAMI" 15:50 06.07.2017 We've got a bullish "Harami" at the local low. This pattern has been confirmed, so the market is likely going to rise until any bearish pattern forms. There're bullish patterns such a "Harami" and a "Tweezers", which both have been confirmed. Also, we don't have any reversal pattern, which means the pair is likely going to continue moving up. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bullish_%22harami%22_2051

WHEN THE EURO WILL RISE ABOVE 1.15 AND HIGHER? 15:12 06.07.2017 The euro has climbed to 1.1445 (its highest level in more than a year) due to improving the Euro area economic environment and Draghi’s hawkish commentaries at the last-week central banking conference in Sintra. According to some analysts, this was the peak; all the positive events have already been priced in and that 1.15 resistance is “unbreakable”. Analyst Carl Hammer of Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) has a different point of view, he expects the EUR to rise well above 1.15 once one of the following conditions is met: A fiscal collaboration within the Eurozone members should occur. That is, a banking union and a fiscal union will have to match the existing monetary union. Such a congruence should be announced no earlier than in May 2018. A fiscal union would mean a further stage in the European Union integration process; it would make the Eurozone more robust, more resilient to the spate of upcoming financial and economic crises; The economic convergence within the Eurozone countries should be achieved. The internal imbalances in the levels of economic development should be eliminated. The Eurozone officials try hard to rectify these imbalances ever since the outbreak of Eurozone crisis. So far, their efforts are still not repaid. The ECB becoming more hawkish not only in word by also in deeds. Meanwhile, the ECB officials believe that a monetary policy stimulus is still needed for the smooth economic recovery. Ewald Nowotny, a Governing Council member, has recently said that monetary policy should be normalized as soon as the economy allows. While inflation remains exceedingly volatile and most of the time subdued, the ECB will unlikely remove even a small degree of its monetary policy accommodation. The ECB’s policymakers admit though that sooner or later they will have to return towards a more neutral rate differential. And then, the euro will certainly spike above the 1.15 /1.20 levels much to ECB’s regret. Rapid euro appreciation would tighten financial conditions prematurely. That is something the ECB would like to occur, so it continues to accord truly great monetary stimuli instead of entering into the hawkish cycle. One more condition we would like to add from our own part – the Fed moving away from monetary normalization and ceasing to raise rates. A non-provision of the long-awaited fiscal stimulus would also trim the USD potential for rising higher. The euro would certainly benefit from the USD weakness and finally break the resistances at 1.15/1.20. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/when_the_euro_will_rise_above_1.15_and_higher__2050

USD/JPY: DOLLAR IS IN CONSOLIDATION 14:26 06.07.2017 Technical levels: support – 113.00, 112.40; resistance – 113.60. Trade recommendations: Sell — 113.20; SL — 113.40; TP1 — 112.40; TP2 — 112.10. Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are under the strong resistance on daily timeframe. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_dollar_is_in_consolidation_2049

GBP/USD: POUND TESTED CLOUD’S SUPPORT 14:25 06.07.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2960, 1.2900; resistance – 1.3010. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.2950; SL — 1.2930; TP1 — 1.3010; TP2 — 1.3050. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is supported by the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_pound_tested_cloud%E2%80%99s_support_2048

EUR/USD: 4/8 MM LEVEL ACTED AS RESISTANCE TWICE 12:06 06.07.2017 The price has been declining in wave since a pullback from 3/8 MM Level was formed. The main bearish target is 0/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for an upward correction. 4/8 MM Level has acted as resistance twice. In this case, wave ii of (iii) may have been ended, so bears are likely going to deliver wave iii of (iii) in the coming hours. Therefore, we should keep in mind 1/8 MM Level as an intraday target. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_4_8_mm_level_acted_as_resistance_twice_2043

THE US STOCK MARKET OVERVIEW 11:31 06.07.2017 US equities ended mostly higher yesterday in the post-holiday trade buoyed by gains in technology, healthcare in and financial shares. A recent drop in oil prices dragged energy stocks a bit lower but failed to divert the composite indices from their overall bull rally. S&P500 is currently moving within the consolidation range of $2405 – 2450. Until the lower border of the range is still intact we expect it moving sideways. Nasdaq ticked a few points higher today to $6150. It has a room for further extension towards $6343 (its all-time high). On the downside, there is a solid support at $5995 (18 May low). A divided FOMC meeting minutes released overnight also helped the US shares to climb higher. The minutes indicated that some members are concerned with the inflation picking up in disaccord with the Fed’s monetary policy stimulus removal. As for the discussion on when to start the process of balance sheet wind down, the Fed is divided. Some suggest it can start as early as September, others are not willing to pre-commit to a start date this early. So, in the future, tepid economic data (a miss on the tomorrow’s NFP, e.g.), as well as inflation rate below the Fed's cherished target, may have a bearing on the Fed’s plans to hike one more time this year and to commence a balance sheet run-off. This would be extremely positive for the US equities as lower interest rates make them more attractive than saving money in a bank or holding government bonds. While in the short-term there might be some retracements in the US equities, in the near-term we expect them to rise higher as soon as second quarter earnings data is published. Some analysts project surprisingly strong releases. The early results from the reporters like Nike, Oracle and Darden were truly impressive. Profits from the companies that have already posted their earning are up nearly 12% from the second quarter results of last year. These early indications might not be sufficient to be extremely bullish on the US equities though. Earning season has not really started yet. It won’t commence until July 14, when JPMorgan and Wells Fargo start reporting their profits, but we might be encouraged at least by this early reporting and wait for even better prints. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the_us_stock_market_overview_2042

GBP/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN 11:01 06.07.2017 Bears faced support at 1.2887, so there's a "V-Bottom" pattern, which pushed the price to the nearest resistance at 1.2947. Moreover, bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2976. Considering the previously formed "Double Top", bears will probably try to achieve support at 1.2926 - 1.2887 afterwards. The price is consolidating near the 89 Moving Average, so bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2976. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an option of having a decline towards the 89 Moving Average. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_%22v_bottom%22_pattern_2041