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Forex Analytics Trading plan for Oct. 21 EUR/USD lacked momentum on Monday. Resistance area is at $1.2830/50. Support is at $1.2730, $1.2700 and $1.2680. Longs from $1.2700 are possible, though cautious. Shorts are advised above $1.2900. No data from the euro area tomorrow, only the evening existing home sales in the US, so risk sentiment will matter. The general mood seems to be EUR-negative. GBP/USD edged above the $1.6100 mark on Monday, hitting fresh 10-day highs as we write. Great Britain is scheduled to release public sector net borrowing data on Tuesday – budget deficit is projected to contract. The data could render more support for the currency. Break above $1.6150 would open the way towards the next short-term targets at $1.6200 and $1.6225. We still expect the $1.6225 mark to cap the upside – this is the long-term trend resistance line and the Oct. 9 high. USD/JPY opened the week with a bullish gap, but failed to sustain gains and fell back below the 107 mark. The move confirms that the 107.50 area remains strongly resistive for now. It makes sense to reenter shorts on a break below 106.60 with an initial target of 105.00 yen. AUD/USD is trading in a broad sideways trend with support at $0.8750, $0.8725 and $0.8685. Resistance is at $0.8815/20, $0.8860 and $0.8900. Selling around the latter is a good strategy. Upcoming data releases should bring more volatility: watch the RBA meeting minutes release and Chinese data early on Tuesday. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2664

MARKET NEWS Oct. 20: key option levels FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2550 (large), $1.2580, $1.2680 (large), $1.2700, $1.2725 (large), $1.2750/55 (large), $1.2775 (large), $1.2790/1.2800 (large), $1.2850 (large); GBP/USD: $1.6000 (large), $1.6190/1.6200 (large); USD/JPY: 105.50 (large), 106.25 (large), 106.75 (large), 107.20 (large), 107.50 (large); USD/CAD: 1.1135, 1.1260, 1.1280; AUD/USD: $0.8600 (large), $0.8700, $0.8800 (large), $0.8850 (large); NZD/USD: $0.7900, $0.7935, $0.7950 (large), $0.8000 (large); EUR/GBP: 0.7915, 0.8040; EUR/JPY: 136.00 (large). More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1836

MARKET NEWS Oct. 20: MARKET REVIEW Pessimism over the economy was tempered and risk sentiment improved. USD: San Francisco Fed President Williams and Boston President Eric Rosengren said that the Fed should end QE as planned at this month. EUR/USD: on the upside in the area of $1.2760, but below last week’s high at $1.2886. GBP/USD trades unchanged at $1.6100. USD/JPY gapped higher at 107.20, Nikkei up as GPIF will lift ratio of domestic stocks to about 25%. AUD/USD up to $0.8787: China announced its intention to inject $33B of 3-month loans into banks. NZD/USD up by 40 pips to $0.7960. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1835

MARKET NEWS Key option levels (Oct. 15) FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2605 (large), $1.2610 (large), $1.2700 (large), $1.2715 (large), $1.2735/40 (large); USD/JPY: 106.55, 106.80, 107.00 (large), 107.20 (large), 108.10/15 (large); AUD/USD: $0.8800 (large); USD/CAD: 1.1150; EUR/GBP: 0.7960 (large). More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1825

MARKET NEWS Oct. 15: MARKET REVIEW Demand for riskier assets remains limited amid lower growth forecasts globally, especially in Europe. EUR/USD: edged down ahead of Mario Draghi’s speeches at 07:00 and 18:00 GMT. GBP/USD: new 11-month low of 1.5870, awaits labor market data at 8:30 GMT. AUD tested $0.8675 on the downside, but then returned to $0.8736: better Westpac consumer confidence & new motor vehicle sales; China’s consumer inflation slowed to a level not seen since 2010 (some speculation that Chinese policymakers may need to announce further selective easing). NZD/USD: watch the Global Dairy trade results later in the day. USD/JPY higher at 107.20. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1824

Forex Analytics Trading plan for Oct. 15 US dollar is trying to stop its correction down versus the major currencies, but to return to the confident bullish trend it needs good figures from the United States, but the forecasts for tomorrow’s releases are not very optimistic. At 12:30 GMT watch American retail sales, PPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index. EUR/USD fell from $1.2667 to the $1.2650 area on a bunch of very negative data from the euro area. Here’s the support line connecting the lows of the 2 previous weeks, 50% of the October move and the support of the H4 Ichimoku. Above here the picture looks consolidative. The pair’s swinging up and down as both EUR and the USD are pressured by the negative factors. We still prefer selling on the upside. Resistance is at $1.2700, $1.2735 and $1.2760. Further support is at $1.2610, $1.2600 and $1.2750. Tomorrow watch the speeches of Mario Draghi at 07:00 and 14:00 GMT. AUD/USD was limited by the 20-day MA and the $0.8800 handle. The risk sentiment is negative, but the USD lacks certainty about American economy recovery and is unable resume its confident appreciation. The pair’s in the consolidative mode. Resistance is at $1.8750, $0.8770 and $0.8800. Support is at $0.8713, $0.8690 and $0.8660. Tomorrow Aussie will be driven by Australian new motor vehicle sales (00:30 GMT) and Chinese inflation data (01:30 GMT). The sharp decline in inflation pulled GBP/USD down to $1.5900 mark – this is a new 11-month low. CPI fell much more than expected from 1.5% to 1.2%, pulled down by reduced food and transportation prices. This is the lowest level since September 2009. Weak inflation data has taken the question of a sooner BOE rate hike off the table and paved the ground for the new lows in the cable. Labor data on Wednesday could become the only bright spot in the recent UK news flow: some improvement is projected. However, the upside will likely remain limited by the $1.6200 mark. Next support is seen at $1.5850 and $1.5720. USD/JPY hit a new 1-month low of 106.70 – this is 38.2% Fibonacci from the July-September rally. Safe-haven demand might remain elevated in the coming days. Downbeat US retail sales (forecast – negative) could increase the selling pressure on the market. The pair will likely hit our bearish target of 105.60 in the coming days, so it’s still not too late to jump onto the bearish train. Resistance lies at 107.20, 107.50 and 107.90. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2619

MARKET NEWS Oct. 14: key option levels FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), 1.2625 (large), 1.2650 (large), 1.2700 (large), 1.2750 (large); GBP/USD: $1.6100 (large); USD/JPY: 106.85/107.00 (large), 107.50 (large), 107.75 (large), 108.00 (large) AUD/USD: $0.8780 (large), $0.8800 (large), $0.8855; USD/CAD: 1.1150 (large) 1.1260/65 (large); NZD/USD: $0.7940 (large); EUR/GBP: 0.7900, 0.7960/65 (large). More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1823

MARKET NEWS Oct. 14: MARKET REVIEW Risk sentiment: traders are concerned as global equities decline. S&P500 slid to 5-month low. EUR/USD: fell from $1.2767 to support at $1.2715 ahead of the European data release at 09:00 GMT (negative forecasts). GBP/USD: awaits inflation data at 8:30 GMT, currently sits at $1.6070. AUD/USD: rose testing levels above $0.88 as the People’s Bank of China cut its 14-day repo rate, again spurring hopes of more broad-based easing + iron ore prices stabilized a bit. NZD/USD: pushed a little higher, capped at $0.7900. USD/JPY: recovered from 106.70 to 107.00. Japanese PPI: 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1822

Forex Analytics Trading plan for Oct. 14 The European currency started the week in a positive mode with EUR/USD recovering from $1.2600 to $1.2700. The next question is whether this recovery will be long-lived. Note that Germany is due to release ZEW economic sentiment index at 09:00 GMT tomorrow, and a decline from 6.9 to 0.2 is expected. What’s more, industrial production is expected to plummet by 1.5%. This is the reason why we recommend selling EUR/USD on rallies. The pair is expected to retest the $1.2500 support to the downside in the nearest future GBP/USD has also recovered some ground on Monday, but the buying interest remains shy. The pair fails to overcome the $1.6100 resistance for now. The overall trend for the cable also remains bearish and could be accelerated by the inflation data releases on Tuesday (8:30 GMT). CPI index is expected to slow to 1.4% y/y (the lowest level since the year 2009). Next support is seen at $1.6000 and $1.5950. However, the sellers should beware the labor data on Thursday: forecasts are upbeat. AUD/USD keeps on consolidating above the last week’s $0.8640 low with the upside capped at $0.8900 for now. On Tuesday Australia is scheduled to release NAB business confidence and business conditions data for September (00:30 GMT). The figures are expected to show economic resilience. USD/JPY opened the week with a bearish gap and touched the new monthly lows around 107 yen. We maintain a short position on the pair targeting 106.00 and 105.60. Major resistance is now seen at 107.50. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2609

MARKET NEWS Oct. 13: MARKET REVIEW Risk sentiment: Asian stocks fell amid concern global growth is slowing. JPY, USD, CAD: bank holidays. AUD rose from almost 4-year minimum as China reported an unexpected pick-up in imports and better-than-forecast export growth. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1816

Forex Analytics Trading plan for Oct. 10 US dollar remained weaker on Thursday after a day earlier the Fed released dovish FOMC meeting minutes. However, concerns about other economies – primarily the euro area – start to return, and demand for USD on Friday may be higher. EUR/USD reached $1.2790, but then retreated below $1.2750 ahead of Mario Draghi’s speech today at 19:00 GMT as there’s the risk of dovish comments. Support of the current short-term uptrend is located at $1.2690. A decline below this point will make the pair slide below $1.2600. As long as the pair’s above this level, the near-term outlook will remain positive. Further resistance is at $1.2830, $1.2860 and $1.2900. AUD/USD reached the levels just below $0.8890. This corrective move up looks a bit weak, but support is at $0.8830 and $0.8795 (top of the H4 Cloud), and the bulls will retain chances until the pair’s trading above the latter. Lower, however, the negative pressure will intensify and a decline below $0.8730 will be a sure sell. Next resistance is at $0.8930. GBP/USD pushed to $1.6225 in Europe before returning back below the $1.6200 mark. As it was expected, the Bank of England left policy unchanged on today’s meeting. Policy announcement came out together with the news that the strong rally in the UK housing prices has started to wane, reducing inflationary pressures. However, the medium-term market sentiment turned bullish by the end of the week due to the dovish Fed’s minutes. Our idea is to buy the cable on dips targeting $1.6240 and than $1.6300. This area remains strongly resistive these days. UK trade deficit is expected to show contraction on Friday – strong data could render support for GBP. USD/JPY remains in a downward channel and holds below the 108.00 mark. The pair is testing the levels below 23.8% Fibonacci from the July-September rally. The current market setup is clearly bearish; we expect a correction towards our targets at 107.30 and 107.00. Don’t miss the BOJ meeting minutes and Tertiary Industry Activity data on Friday. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2579

MARKET NEWS Oct. 9: MARKET REVIEW Risk sentiment: Asian shares rose on dovish FOMC meeting minutes. USD: broadly weakened as the Fed was concerned about the downside risks to the global economy and USD’s strength, and investors pushed back bets for when the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. EUR/USD: at $1.2570 ahead of Draghi. GBP/USD: extends recovery towards $1.6200, BOE policy announcement comes at 11:00 GMT. USD/JPY trades below 108.00 yen. AUD/USD: higher despite decline in employment. NZD/USD recovered to $0.7950. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1812

Forex Analytics Trading plan for Oct. 9 The main theme of Wednesday was risk aversion and concerns about global growth. Still EUR/USD bulls are trying to stick to the $1.2670 area as the market awaits the release of the FOMC meeting minutes (18:00 GMT) later today. Main resistance is located at $1.2700. Given the better performance of euro in the past two days, there’s still a chance of $1.2790/1.2800 if the Fed is dovish. Support is at $1.2630, $1.2600 and $1.2570. On Thursday watch the ECB President Mario Draghi speak at 15:00 GMT. We expect dovish comments from Draghi as the recent data from the euro area was grim. GBP/USD consolidates below the $1.6120 resistance on Tuesday. The cable bounced from the $1.5950 support on Friday, but the upside remains contained by the trend line resistance, descending from $1.6520. On Tuesday we’ve seen a long-legged candle – market remains uncertain about pushing higher. Fix above $1.6120 could open the way to $1.6230 (July-October resistance). However, we still remain bearish in the medium term. The Bank of England will likely remain on hold on Thursday’s meeting – the meeting minutes later in the month are going to be a more important release. USD/JPY consolidates around the 108.00 mark. According to our forecast, a daily fix below this level will trigger a more rapid bearish correction with a target of 106.00/105.80. Watch the core machinery orders data tomorrow - growth is expected to have slowed down. Next resistance lies at 108.50 and 109.00 yen. AUD/USD is trading sideways between resistance at $0.8830 and support at $0.8750. Aussie has to overcome $0.8830 to rise to $0.8885 and $0.8930. Note that Aussie will be vulnerable for decline on Australian labor market data due tomorrow (00:30 GMT), and it makes sense to sell after the FOMC. Watch for a break of support at $0.8750 on the downside for a decline to $0.8660 with next target at $0.8605. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2570

MARKET NEWS Oct. 8: key option levels FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large); GBP/USD: $1.6130 (large); USD/JPY: 108.00 (large), 108.50 (large), 108.90 (large), 109.50/55 (large); USD/CAD: 1.1150 (large); AUD/USD: $0.8770, $0.8815; EUR/GBP: 0.7750, 0.7800. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1808

MARKET NEWS 8 October 2014 IMF reduced growth forecasts FXBAZOOKA.com – The International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.4% to 3.3%, warning of weakness in the euro zone, Japan and big emerging markets such as Brazil. The IMF sees a 30% chance that the euro zone will fall into deflation and a nearly 40% risk that it will slide into a recession over the next year. Data on Tuesday signaled Japan may already be in a mild recession. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1807

MARKET NEWS Oct. 8: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW USD: Dovish comments of the Fed member Kocherlakota (“falling unemployment is no reason to raise rates”). Market is expecting the release of the FOMC minutes (18:00 GMT). EUR: Bundesbank President Weidmann criticizes ECB’s stimulus measures. GBP/USD: upside capped at $1.6120 USD/JPY: found a local support at 107.70, Japan’s current account surplus below forecast AUD: Australian Bureau of Statistics is going to have to revise the July and August employment data (August figures were exceptionally high). AUD: Chinese HSBC Services PMI edged down reinforcing expectations of further stimulus measures More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1806

Forex Analytics Trading plan for Oct. 8 EUR/USD rose to $1.2650 on Monday almost compensating the Friday’s selloff and finishing the day close to the high. In addition, the euro is holding pretty well in the past 2 days despite weak data from the euro area. This actually means that the pair was seriously oversold and support at $1.2500 is really strong. As a result, the odds are that the pair may test higher levels. A powerful fix above $1.2570 and inside the H4 Ichimoku Cloud will be a bullish signal. The fate of the pair depends on the FOMC meeting minutes due tomorrow (18:00 GMT): there’s the risk of the market’s disappointment and lower USD on this release. In such case EUR/USD may test $1.2800 (previous channel support). Support is at $1.2570. Below this level we’ll once again turn bearish. GBP/USD hovers slightly below the $1.6100 mark in the late European trade. The pair holds below the trend line resistance, descending from the local $1.6520 high. Despite this week’s recovery, we remain bearish below the $1.6300 mark and expect the downside to continue after a few days of consolidation. Japanese yen keeps on strengthening: USD/JPY dipped to 108.20 in Europe. As expected, the BOJ left policy unchanged and gave no clear signals on its policy intentions, but the recent Abe’s remarks on cheap currency are a bearish factor for the pair. Fix below the 108.00 mark will open the way to our initial bearish target at 107.30. Watch the Japanese current account data on Wednesday (surplus is expected to widen towards 0.19T). AUD/USD has reached the target at $0.8330 (top of the H4 Cloud), which we outlined yesterday as our alternative scenario. Despite the expectation, the RBA didn’t make many dovish comments. In addition, there’s a general setback in the USD today. There are bullish signs from Ichimoku. Above $0.8830 resistance is at $0.8850 (a still descending 100-period MA), $0.8890, $0.8925 and $0.9000. Support is at $0.8750 and $0.8650. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2558

MARKET NEWS Oct. 7: key option levels FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2550, $1.2595/1.2600 (large), $1.2635 (large), $1.2650, $1.2700, 1.2730 (large), $1.2750 (large); GBP/USD: $1.6050 (large), $1.6085 (large); USD/JPY: 108.40 (large), 110.50/55 (large); USD/CAD: 1.1150/55, 1.1200, 1.1225, 1.1250; NZD/USD: 0.7900, 0.7925; EUR/GBP: 0.7780. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1804

MARKET NEWS Oct. 7: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW USD: edged higher, Monday’s decline is seen as profit-taking. Watch the speeches of Kocherlakota and Dudley (17:20 and 19:00 GMT). EUR: edged down after gaining more than 1% on Monday. Watch German industrial production (06:00 GMT) and French budget balance (06:45 GMT). GBP/USD recovered to $1.6070, markets await manufacturing production at 8:30 GMT USD/JPY slipped below 109.00 yen BOJ: policy unchanged, notes weakness in production, CPI will stay around 1.25% for some time AUD: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged, mentioned moderate growth in economy, there will be a period of stability in interest rates; no new measures to cool the housing market. According to RBA, AUD remains high by historical standards. NZD/USD: under pressure, but holds above $0.7800, NZIER Business Confidence down from 32 to 19 More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1803

Forex Analytics Trading plan for Oct. 7 EUR/USD found some support around $1.2500 (psychological level, 74.6% Fibo) and recovered a bit on Monday despite bad data from Europe. Data release showed that German factory orders made a sharp decline of 5.7% in August. Sentix Investor Confidence was also negative. At the same time, US dollar is broadly weaker versus its peers as it’s long overbought, and it’s harder for the USD bulls to push up. Tomorrow watch German industrial production (06:00 GMT) and French budget balance (06:45 GMT) – forecasts are weak, but EUR/USD may hold on as the biggest market mover is the FOMC meeting minutes due on Wednesday. The most important piece of data from America tomorrow will be the speeches of Kocherlakota and Dudley (17:20 and 19:00 GMT) – these are the dovish members of the Fed, so their comments will be potentially USD-negative. We think that the pair will be trading in the $1.2500/1.2650 area. It’s reasonable to sell at the top of this range with stops above $1.2700. Japanese yen has recovered some ground on Monday: USD/JPY fell back to 109.10 yen in the European trade. Bank of Japan holds its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Policy is widely expected to remain unchanged. Markets will pay special attention to the BOJ press conference: will the Central Bank change the tone? We don’t expect too much from this meeting: the economy still remains weak, but, according to the recent speculation, the regulator is more likely to change the terms of achieving the inflation target than the monetary policy. However, any dovish comments will push USD/JPY higher. Resistance lies at 110.00 and 110.60, while support – at 109.10/00 and 108.20. GBP/USD recovered from the 11-month low of $1.5950, but remains capped by the $1.6000 mark. The short-term picture remains clearly bearish below $1.6050. Great Britain is scheduled to release Manufacturing Production data on Tuesday, 8:30 GMT (forecast 0.2% vs. prior 0.3%). Market participants remain indecisive ahead of the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the BOE policy decision (Thursday), but we expect the cable to extend the downside in the coming days. Next support lies at $1.5900 and $1.5840. AUD/USD recovered from the recent lows, but is still under pressure of the Ichimoku Cloud on H4. The market expects the RBA to sound dovish at its tomorrow meeting. If it does, the pair will test support at $0.8660, $0.8615 and $0.8600 – the base scenario. Resistance is at $0.8665, $0.8830 and $0.8870. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2545

MARKET NEWS Oct. 6: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW USD index at 4-year high on solid U.S. payroll gains, Japanese stocks bounced; Bank holiday in Australia and China; EUR, GBP, AUD: consolidate around the Friday’s close; NZD/USD dipped to $0.7710, but recovered; USD/JPY dipped to 109.50. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1797

MARKET NEWS Oct. 6: MARKET REVIEW USD index at 4-year high on solid U.S. payroll gains, Japanese stocks bounced Bank holiday in Australia and China EUR, GBP, AUD: consolidate around the Friday’s close NZD/USD dipped to $0.7710, but recovered USD/JPY dipped to 109.50 More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1797

Forex Analytics 3 October 2014 EUR/USD: 12th week of declines EUR/USD fell for 12th week in a row. The meeting of the European Central Bank wasn’t a big market mover. President Mario Draghi said only that the ECB will start purchasing covered bonds in the middle of October, while ABS will be bought from Q4. The ECB gave no estimates of the size of this private debt purchasing programs, but said that they will last at least 2 years. On the one hand, many market players doubt that the ECB will manage to expand its balance sheet enough to weaken the currency. This provided support to EUR/USD. On the other hand, some traders are worried that if the measures, which have already been announced, don’t work, the ECB will have to do a full-blown QE in future. This is keeping euro under pressure. So, the situation remains uncertain. The fundamentals in the euro area are still weak and weaker than in the US. Inflation in the region experienced further decline in September: the headline reading fell to 0.3%, while the core figure declined to 0.7%. Draghi confirmed that the medium-term inflation outlook worsened. The US, on the contrary, showed an improving labor market. As a result, the outlook for the pair remains bearish. Note that EUR/USD approached $1.2500 (74.6% Fibo of the advance from 2012-2014). This level may provide some support ahead of $1.2460 and $1.2400. Resistance is at $1.2660 and $1.2750. We’ll close out medium-term short position at $1.2500 and will sell on recoveries. The main event in the euro area’s economic calendar next week is Mario Draghi’s speech on Thursday. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2527

Forex Analytics Trading plan for Oct. 3 EUR/USD rose to $1.2690, but then returned down to $1.2650. The ECB kept rates unchanged. The most important piece of information from Mario Draghi’s press conference is that purchases of covered bonds will start in the middle of October, while ABS will be bought from Q4, 2014. The ECB gave no estimates of the size of the programs, but said that they will last 2 years. The market will be now digesting this information. The main question is: has the ECB done enough or it will have to do a full-blown QE in future? As the central bank has stressed that the medium-term inflation forecast has declined, expectations of more from the ECB may remain. Technically watch for support at $1.2600 – a slide below this level will confirm the continuation of the downtrend. Resistance is at $1.2700, $1.2715 and $1.2760. Today’s data from the US was mixed. Tomorrow watch the NFP and American unemployment rate at 12:30 GMT – traditional source of volatility. GBP/USD extends the downside in the early US trade, approaching the $1.6100 support. Intraday rallies were capped at $1.6175. The cable kept on falling despite the outstandingly strong UK construction PMI release (8 month high of 64.2). Tomorrow will bring us probably the most awaited release – Service sector PMI at 8:30 GMT. The index is expected to have declined from 60.5 to 59.1. However, even is the figure comes out stronger, we doubt that the current bearish trend could be paused. Hold a short position with a target of $1.6070. USD/JPY extends the decline from the 110 mark, hitting 108.30 in Europe. The pair found some support in this area, but we expect the short-term sales to continue. Break below 108.20 will open the way to 107.30 and 106.80. The picture remains bearish below 109.00 yen. On Friday all eyes will be glued to the US NFP release – strong figures will clearly push the pair higher. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2512

MARKET NEWS 2 October 2014 What to expect from the ECB? The European Central Bank will announce its latest decision on rates and monetary policy at 11:45 GMT, with the ECB president Mario Draghi taking press questions 45 minutes later. Further rate cuts are very unlikely: the main refinancing rate is expected to stay at 0.05%, while the deposit rate - at -0.2%. Market attention will be focused on the details of the asset-backed securities and covered bonds purchases programs that will likely start this month. The most important questions for the markets are how much and what exactly the ECB is going to buy. According to the most recent Reuters forecast, the ECB will spend around 200 billion euros for asset purchases till the end of the year. Some experts don’t expect the overall volume to overcome 100 billion euros. The insufficient amount of stimulus won’t be enough to change the inflationary expectations and trigger the economic recovery. As a result, we could see EUR/USD falling further on increased economic uncertainty. Large amount of asset purchases could add to market optimism and support the pair - at least in a short term. As we understood from the TLTRO (targeted long-term refinancing operations), announced in earlier September, the amount matters. The ECB offered banks to take cheap loans, but the demand was much lower than expected (only 82.6 billion euros). The markets became worried as the ECB ability to support the economy came under question. This time the ECB will likely sound more decisive and dovish to convince the markets. However, the unknown ECB officials said the initial amount of buying will be modest. At the same time, the composition of the asset purchases is also important. Draghi is not really worried about the asset quality these days: he proposed buying some “junk” securities of Greece and Cyprus. The news could offer some support to the single currency. The pressure on the ECB to launch full quantitative easing (QE) is mounting. However, the regulator doesn’t seem to be ready for such cardinal measures. More: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1785