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Forex Analytics Large banks: how to trade NFP? 6 March 2015 Currency market will be focused on the US Non-Farm Payrolls release on Friday at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, the US economy added 240K new jobs in February versus 257K in January. Unemployment rate is expected to have lowered from 5.7% to 5.6%. What do large bank expect today? Credit Agricole: We expect NFP at 245K, unemployment at 5.6%. Investors’ Fed rate expectations will continue to be supported to the benefit of the USD. Negative surprises in NFP can’t be excluded. However, downbeat figures won’t have any sustainable effect unless wage developments weaken considerably. SELL any larger than 25 pip EUR/USD rally following any negative NFP surprise with a stop of at least 100 pips. We target 1.0600 in a few weeks. Standard Bank: The data could fall a bit short of expectations. The importance of NFP figures seems to be diminishing relative to wage numbers, so a reading above consensus here would send USD up. Barclays: NFP will rise by 250K. The unemployment rate will fall to 5.6%, while the average hourly earnings will rise by 0.2%. RBS: NFP will rise by 260K. The unemployment rate will decline to 5.6%. A very strong NFP could push EUR/USD definitively below 1.10. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3963

Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 6 Open positions:* EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.0829, STOP LOSS 1.1247 (revised) USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 121.86, STOP LOSS 119.33 (revised) USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 0.9625 (revised) AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7880 USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2380 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 131.17, STOP LOSS 133.81 (revised) EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7305 EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605 Trade ideas: GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5290, TAKE PROFIT 1.5182, STOP LOSS 1.5350 (revised) EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3835, TAKE PROFIT 1.3650, STOP LOSS 1.3915 GBP/JPY: BUY at 182.15, TAKE PROFIT 185.0, STOP LOSS 181.50 NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7520, TAKE PROFIT 0.7313, STOP LOSS 0.7570 More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3962

Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for March 6 On Friday the main event of the day will surely be the release of the US labor market data at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, US Non-Farm Payrolls have increased in Feb. by 240K after gaining 257K in Jan. American unemployment rate is seen declining from 5.7% to 5.6%. The average hourly earnings’ growth is expected to slow down. NFP above 200K will confirm expectations of the Fed’s hike this summer and will be positive for USD. EUR/USD remains to be sold. The bearish trend reinforced when the pair broke below the recent lows. Resistance is at 1.1100, 1.1150 and 1.1215. Thebearswillremaininchargebelow1.1260. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0950. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi has announced that the quantitative easing program (QE) will start on Monday, March 9. Although much of QE is already priced in EUR/USD and Draghi pointed out that the euro zone’s economy improved a bit, divergence between the ECB’s and the Fed’s monetary policies keeps the euro under pressure. In the first half of the day EUR/USD will likely be consolidating ahead of NFP. The bulls were eager to buy USD/JPY. There’s still resistance in the 120.25/50 and then 120.80 areas to overcome, but the move up towards 124.00 is approaching. Support is at 118.85/70. Japanese authorities could try to discourage the buyers around 121.00, but is the USD rally is broad, the pair will continue going up. So, it all depends on the US data. GBP/USD in on the downside and may test support at 1.5190/80. Failure to hold there will provoke decline to 1.5080. Resistance is in the1.5300/25 area. AUD/USD lacks strength to break above 0.7850. Support lies at 0.7720. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3957

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: trade idea 5 March 2015 By Dima Chernovolov GBP/USD completed primary ABC correction ② Next sell targets - 1.51600 and 1.5100 GBP/USD continues to fall after recently reversing down from the strong resistance level 1.5520 (former strong support which reversed the pair in December, as you can see below). The resistance zone near 1.5520 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the previous sharp extended downward impulse from September, upper daily Bollinger Band and by the upper resistance trendline of the narrow daily up channel which has enclosed the ©-wave of the preceding primary ABC correction ②. The downward reversal from this resistance area completed the aforementioned primary correction ②. GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active primary downward impulse ③ toward the next sell targets - 1.51600 and 1.5100. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3947

Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 5 Open positions: * EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1247 USD/JPY: Hold LONG AT 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 120.82, STOP LOSS 119.05 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT AT 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 131.70, STOP LOSS 133.81 EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7305 NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7520, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7490 USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9765, STOP LOSS 0.9534 AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7880 USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2380 Trade ideas: GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5315, TAKE PROFIT 1.5182, STOP LOSS 1.5380 EUR/CHF: Look to BUY EUR/CAD: Look to SELL GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY _____________________________________________________________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3941

MARKET NEWS Key option levels 5 March 2015 FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR 911m), 1.1150 (EUR 1bln), 1.1200 (EUR 1.2bln); GBP/USD: 1.5300 (GBP 150m); USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 948m), 119.25 (USD 800m), 119.50 (USD 385m), 120.00 (3bln); USD/CHF: 0.9645/50 (USD 930m); AUD/USD: 0.7850 (AUD 1.87bln); NZD/USD: 0.7355-60 (NZD 375m); AUD/JPY: 0.9650/55 (AUD 450m). More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2378

Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for March 5 EUR/USD has weakened to the levels just above 1.1100. The euro is feeling pressure ahead of the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Resistance is at 1.1215, 1.1270 and 1.1320. Further support is at 1.1050 and 1.1000. GBP/USD has retraced 38.2% of the advance from January low to February high. The pair was rejected at the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and may fall to its bottom in the 1.5200 zone. Support is in the 1.5310 area (55-day MA). The Bank of England is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged. USD/JPY failed to hold above 120.00 on Tuesday and may decline to 118.85/77 area where it should find more support. Resistance is in the 120.25/50 area. On Thursday watch US unemployment claims, factory orders and the speech of FOMC Member Williams. AUD/USD is once again testing 0.7850 which corresponds with the long-term trend line resistance. Australia will release retail sales and trade balance data early on Thursday. Next resistance is at 0.7915. The expectations of RBA’s rate cut are pushed back, not dismissed, so Aussie will probably be limited on the upside. Support is at 0.7800 and 0.7750. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3936

Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 4 Open positions: EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1247 USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 120.82, STOP LOSS 119.05 GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5365, TAKE PROFIT 1.5621, STOP LOSS 1.5305 USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9700, STOP LOSS 0.9534 (revised) AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7880 USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2380 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 132.00, STOP LOSS 134.80 EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7305 EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0730, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0678 EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4065, TAKE PROFIT 1.3805, STOP LOSS 1.4155 GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 183.40 (revised) NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7520, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7470 ______________________________________________________________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3925

Forex Analytics EUR: get ready for the ECB meeting 4 March 2015 By Elizaveta Belugina Last week EUR/USD closed below 1.1210 (61.8% Fibo of the 2000-2008 move). This week this area acts as resistance. As the European Central Bank has announced 1.1 trillion euro ($1.23 trillion) bond-buying quantitative easing program (QE) in January and pledged to conduct in until Sept. 2016, its policy direction is in general clear to the market. As a result, the impact on the meeting on the euro probably won’t be very strong. Still, the market players want more details about the European QE. The ECB promised to purchase 60 billion euro of securities per month and traders want to see if and how the central bank manages to buy this amount. Taking into account the recently improved data from the euro area, the expected effects of the loose monetary policy, as well as those of the lower euro and oil prices, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi can provide a more optimistic growth outlook. However, to justify QE the central bank’s inflation forecast may deteriorate in comparison with December estimate. If inflation forecast is revised up, the euro would jump in the short term as in this case the market will start speculating that QE may end earlier than in Sept. 2016. Another thing to watch will be the signs of whether the ECB plans to restore Greek banks’ access to open-market operations. In case of a short squeeze EUR/USD will find resistance in the 1.1360 area. Support is at 1.1100 and 1.1000. Still, as the ECB will start buying bonds this month, it will limit demand for the euro in any case. It also seems that the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike are now more important for EUR/USD than news out of the euro area. As a result, the best trading strategy should be selling on the pair’s attempt to recover to 1.14. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3924

Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for Mar. 4 By Kira Iukhtenko EUR/USD did it best to hold above the 1.1200 figure, but failed. The pair is gradually approaching the January low of 1.1097 – break lower would open a direct way to parity. Euro zone released relatively upbeat data at the beginning of the week, but the general picture remains bearish. Watch the Services PMI indices on Wednesday. On Thursday the market will focus on the ECB policy meeting that will be followed by the Draghi’s press conference. Traders await the details of the 1-trillion-euro ECB’s QE program that begins in mid-March. Net long USD positions have been growing since the beginning of the week. USDIndexhashitan 11-yearhighonMonday. In our view, the ECB meeting could become a good “excuse” for the market to push with a new dollar rally. US employment and wages data on Friday could render further support for the American currency. Meanwhile, GBP/USD slipped down towards the 1.5350 mark following the last week’s push to 1.5550, The BOE meeting on Thursday will likely be a non-event. Watch UK inflationary expectations on Friday – the figures could weigh on the sterling. AUD/USD jumped to 0.7840 as the RBA left rates unchanged at 2.25%, but we see growth limited. Markets will be waiting for a rate cut on the next meeting. The expectations will pressure the Aussie in the coming weeks. Australia is scheduled to release Q4 GDP on Wednesday (forecast: +0.7%, Q3: +0.3%). You should also watch Chinese Service sector HSBC PMI on Wednesday. Even if the data are upbeat, we recommend selling AUD/USD from 0.7900/15. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3916

GBP/USD forecast for Mar. 2-8 On the new week pay attention to the PMI indices – they will likely confirm ongoing the economic recovery. The Bank of England holds its policy meeting on Thursday. What to expect? More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/video/?id=40&id_video=210

EUR/USD forecast for Mar. 2-8 What to expect from EUR/USD on the coming week? More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/video/?id=40&id_video=214

MARKET NEWS Key option levels FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: 1.1180 (EUR 600m), 1.1200 (320m), 1.1290 (EUR 250m), 1.1350 (EUR 350m) USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 300m), 119.75 (USD 250m), 121.00 (USD 430m) USD/CHF: 0.9500 (USD 250m) AUD/USD: 0.7700 (AUD 255m), 0.7750 (AUD 273m), 0.7800 (AUD 364m), 0.7900 (AUD 398m) AUD/JPY:92.80 (AUD 289m) More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2364

Forex Analytics USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis 2 March 2015 Weekly. Wave [V] of a long-term bullish trend is now being formed. H12. The market has formed a converging horizontal triangle. The price is now forming a new bullish trend. On the new week we expect a bullish wave III to be built. H4. Waves I-II and -[ii] are constructed. We expect a bullish move. Break above the top of the I impulse would be a bullish trigger. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3884

Forex Analytics AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis 2 March 2015 Weekly. The market is forming a long-term bearish correction (bearish tripple zigzag). Let's see the markup of the wave A of (z). Daily. Bearish correction [4] is now being formed. The decline will be extended in a wave [5]. H4. The first part of the double tripple – (w) - has been finished. We expect a decline in a wave (x) to follow. It could become a zigzag. Bullish wave (y) will follow. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3885

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis 2 March 2015 Weekly. The market is forming a multi-month bearish trend C (part of a global bearish zigzag). Daily. Markup of the wave C is drawn on the chart. After a bullish zigzag (3) we expect a decline in a new impulse (5). H4. See the wave (4) in the details. The decline will continue at the beginning of the new week. We recommend going short at the end of a short-term bullish correction. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3883

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis 2 March 2015 By Roman Petuchov Weekly. The market is currently forming a wave flat B (final part). Let's review the details. Daily. We see a strong bearish trend that has been forming for a year. The final bearish impulse (5) is now being formed. H4. Wave 4 of (5) is a double tripple. On the new week we expect a bearish trend to be constructed with small rising or horizontal corrections. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3882

MARKET NEWS Key option levels 2 March 2015 FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 909m), 1.1200 (EUR 673m), 1.1300 (EUR 594m), 1.1320/25 (EUR 908m), 1.1340 (415m); GBP/USD: 1.5500 (311m); USD/JPY: 117.50 (USD 650m), 118.00 (USD 1bln), 120.00 (USD 1.7bln), 121.50 (USD 700m); AUD/USD: 0.7750 (AUD 520m), 0.7800 (AUD 418m), 0.7910 (AUD 747m). More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2355

Forex Analytics EUR/CAD: sell targets 27 February 2015 Dima Chernovolov • EUR/CAD fall inside intermediate impulse (3) • Next sell targets - 1.3900 and 1.3800 EUR/CAD has been under significant bearish pressure lately – after the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.4600 and 1.4400 (this resistance zone has been reversing the pair from last October, as you can see below). This resistance area was also strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band, the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier downward impulse from March and by the upper resistance trendline of the daily down channel from August. The downward reversal form this resistance area marked the end of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) from January. EUR/CAD is expected to fall further in the active intermediate impulse (3) to the next sell targets 1.3900 and 1.3800 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse (1) in January). More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3859

Forex Analytics USD: what to expect next week? 27 February 2015 Kira Iukhtenko The US Federal Reserve sees the economy recovering, but waits for clear signals to begin hiking interest rates. The labor market dynamics seems to be on track, while low inflation, expensive currency and external threats stall the tightening. Last week the US Chiar Yellen sounded more dovish than hawkish when testifying in Congress on Tuesday. The wording “patient” in forward guidance means rates are to stay low for at least two meetings. What’s more, rates could be increased only after the inflation stabilizes. However, we remain bullish in our USD forecasts: the Fed’s is still planning to raise rates and discusses the right timing. On Thursday the US released inflation figures. Markets focused on core CPI that returned into the positive territory. As a result, demand for the US dollar revived. On the new week pay attention to the PMI indices on Monday and on Wednesday. On Friday the labor market data will come into the limelight. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the US currency, but the market still has a chance to form a bullish candle for the 8th month in a row. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3864

Forex Analytics EUR/NZD: trade idea 27 February 2015 Dima Chernovolov EUR/NZD approaches sell target 1.4800 Next sell target - 1.4600 EUR/NZD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions – in accordance with our earlier forecast for this currency pair. EUR/NZD previously broke the support level 1.5200 – after which it corrected up to test this price level (acting as resistance after it was broken). The resistance zone near 1.5200 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of February. The pair reversed down from this resistance zone with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing - signaling the acceleration of the active minor impulse wave 3. EUR/NZD is currently approaching the sell target 1.4800 which was set previously for this pair. If it breaks 1.4800, the price can then fall to the next sell target 1.4600. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3858

Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for Feb. 27 US dollar rose as core inflation gained 0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected), while durable goods orders rose by 2.8% after falling by 3.3% in the previous period. Despite the negative headline inflation (-0.7%), the expectations of the Fed’s June rate hike are back. On Friday the US will release the second estimate of Q4 GDP (a revision down from 2.6% to 2.1% is expected). EUR/USD is below 1.1260. Next levels to watch are 1.1210 and 1.1100. Resistance has switched to 1.1280 and 1.1350. GBP/USD has tested another high at 1.5550 supported by the decline of EUR/GBP, but then fell on stronger USD. A band of resistance is located at 1.5580/1.5600/1.5620. Support is at 1.5420/00 and then at 1.5400. USD/JPY will likely be sold on approaches to 119.60. Next resistance is at 120.00. Japan will release a bloc of the economic data on Friday during the Asian session. Forecasts are not very positive, but the Bank of Japan has signaled that it wants to wait with further stimulus, so the negative impact on yen shouldn’t be big. Support is at 118.80 and in the 118.30 area. AUD/USD is trying to push above 0.7900, but the 200-period MA at H4 chart is a serious obstacle which has been capping the pair foe many months. Support is at 0.7770 and 0.7720. Resistance is at 0.7950 and 0.8025. The risk of the RBA’s rate cut next week will limit Aussie’s advance. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3850

Forex Analytics EUR/AUD: trade idea 26 February 2015 By Dima Chernovolov EUR/AUD reaches sell target 1.4400 Next sell target - 1.4200 EUR/AUD recently reached the sell target 1.4400, which was set in our previous report for this currency pair. The price earlier reversed down twice from the strong resistance zone set between the following resistance levels – the former support trendline of the daily up channel from September (acting as resistance now after it was broken in January), the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse (1) from December, resistance level 1.4900 and the upper daily Bollinger Band. Two reversals from the aforementioned resistance zone marked the end of previous waves A and (2). EUR/AUD is currently trading close to the support level 1.4400. If the price breaks this support, EUR/AUD can then fall in the active impulse (3) to the next sell target 1.4200. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3840

Forex Analytics USD/JPY: bulls having hard time By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst A couple of days ago, the bulls managed to break out of the cloud zone into the positive area. However, the resistance in the 119.40-119.60 area has killed their enthusiasm pretty quickly. Unsuccessful breakthrough made prices go back to the Ichimoku support level - 118.60. At the moment, the situation is uncertain. On the one hand, the Golden Cross is active and the cloud is bullish. But the prices failure to consolidate above the Tenkan and Kijun lines speaks of the buyers weakness. We do not rule out a possibility of the dollar weakening against the yen. Technical levels: support – 118.60; resistance – 119.00, 119.40. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell— 118.50; SL — 118.70; TP1 — 117.80; TP2 — 117.50. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3837

Forex Analytics AUD/USD: bulls keep pressuring 26 February 2015 By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst The bulls have managed to steal the initiative. Despite the break through the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border, the currency pair has failed to consolidate in the negative zone. The bulls counterattack has ended up in an upward break through the cloud and, apparently, they are aiming to fix above the 78th figure. They will be supported by the cloud upper border and the Tenkan and Kijun lines. Oscillators have also turned upwards, indicating bullish sentiment of the market participants. Technical levels: support – 0.7830; resistance – 0.7930. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7830; SL — 0.7810; TP1 — 0.7900; TP2 — 0.7930. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/3836