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Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for January 12 Last week: Yuan’s devaluation, Chinese stocks decline, oil price falling by more than 11%, good NFP release in the US (+292K), but weak average hourly earnings. Risk sentiment: Mildly negative. European shares made small gains, though Asian indexes fell by 2-5%. The market make take a breath after the losses of the previous week, though it’s too early at this point to say that equities have reached bottom. USD: US labor market statistics didn’t provide the greenback with strong bullish impulse. Traders will look forward to comments of the Fed members on China and US equity markets. The Fed’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher will speak at 10:30 GMT. EUR/USD: The pair met resistance at 1.0970, though the market’s risk aversion doesn’t let the euro to slide much. We lean towards cautious selling. After 1.0870 support is at1.0830, 1.0800 and 1.0685. GBP/USD: The oversold pound has started correcting to the upside, though the general downtrend is still in place. The UK will release manufacturing production figures at 09:30 GMT (forecast is positive, though annual reading is expected to decline). The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will speak at 14:15 GMT. Resistance is at 1.4640 and 1.4700 – the market will likely remain bearish below this point. USD/JPY: Last week the pair broke below important support levels and now looks weak. US dollar will likely return to minimums. Resistance is at 118.30 and 118.70, while support is at 116.00. Pay attention to Japanese current account data and the Bank of Japan’s Kuroda speech at 10:30 GMT. AUD/USD: Resistance is at 0.7115 (former support line). Aussie is correcting to the upside, though we think that advance won’t be long, so we’ll see this resistance as a point to enter shorts. Support is at 0.6930/00. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7549

Forex Analytics CAD/CHF: buy targets - 0.7100 and 0.7150 11 January 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov CAD/CHF reversed from round support level 0.7000 Next buy targets - 0.7100 and 0.7150 CAD/CHF continues to rise – following the earlier sharp upward reversal from the major round support level 0.7000 (which also previously reversed the price at the end of August with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, as you can see on the daily CAD/CHF chart below). The support zone near the support level 0.7000 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. CAD/CHF is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets 0.7100 and 0.7150 (38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci Correction levels of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of January). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7543

Forex Analytics EUR/CAD: sell target - 1.5200 11 January 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov EUR/CAD reached buy target 1.5400 Next sell target - 1.5200 EUR/CAD today reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.5400 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and 1.5500 (which reversed the previous sharp intermediate (A)-wave in August, as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below). Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance zone and the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/CAD can be expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.5200 (standing close to the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward price impulse from the start of this month) More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7542

Forex Analytics EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.7400 8 January 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov EUR/GBP reversed from long-term resistance level 0.7470 Next sell target - 0.7400 EUR/GBP today reversed down from the major, long-term resistance level 0.7470 (which earlier reversed the previous sharp waves 4 and ① in May and October of 2015, as you can see from the daily EUR/GBP chart below). The resistance zone near the resistance level0.7470 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. Given the strength of the resistance level 0.7470 and the clear bearish divergence that can be seen on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/GBP can be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7400 (previous buy target recently reached by this currency pair). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7527

Forex Analytics GBP/CAD: buy target - 2.0800 8 January 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov GBP/CAD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 2.0800 GBP/CAD continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 – which started recently, when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong support level 2.0350 (former upper boundary of the sideways price range from October, acting as support now after it was broken), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse (v) from the start of December. GBP/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 2.0800 (which stopped the (-wave of the previous ABC correction 2 from December). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7526

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: sell target - 1.4500 7 January 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov GBP/USD reached sell target 1.4750 Next sell target - 1.4500 GBP/USD recently fell sharply – breaking through the support level 1.4750, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 5, which belong to the sharp intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from August. The price is currently trading close to the pivotal, multi-month support level 1.4570 (which stopped the previous primary impulse wave ① in April, as can be seen below).If the price breaks below 1.4570, GBP/USD can then fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4500 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7522

Forex Analytics USD/JPY: sell targets - 117.00 and 116.20 7 January 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov USD/JPY broke pivotal support level 118.60 Next sell targets - 117.00 and 116.20 USD/JPY today broke below the pivotal support level 118.60 (which has been reversing the price from the end of August, as you can see below). This support level also reversed the pair multiple times in March and April of last year. The breakout of the support level 118.60 accelerated the active ©-wave of the minor ABC correction 2 from the middle of November. USD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active waves © and 2 toward the next sell target at the support level 117.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next major support level 116.20 (which reversed the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) in August). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7521

Forex Analytics USD/CAD: buy targets - 1.4200 and 1.4400 6 January 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov USD/CAD reached buy target 1.4000 Next buy targets - 1.4200 and 1.4400 USD/CAD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the round resistance level 1.4000 – which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.4000 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier- when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.3800 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of December. USD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4200 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4400. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7514

Forex Analytics GBP/JPY: sell target - 172.00 6 January 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov GBP/JPY broke pivotal support level 176.00 Next sell target - 172.00 GBP/JPY continues to fall strongly – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal long-term support level 176.00, which has been reversing the price from the start of 2015, as you can see from the daily GBP/JPY chart below. The breakout of this support level follows the earlier breakout of the support level 178.00, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. GBP/JPY is likely to fall further in the accelerated impulse waves 3 and (v) (which belong to the sharp intermediate impulse wave © from November of 2015) toward the next sell target at the support level 172.00 (forecast price for the termination of the active impulse wave 3). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7513

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: sell target - 1.4750 30 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov GBP/USD falling inside impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) Next sell target - 1.4750 GBP/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions- following the earlier breakout of the round support level 1.5000, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.5000 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3). The price earlier reversed down from the lower channel line of the wide daily down channel from June - which further accelerated the downward movement of this currency pair. GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4750 (target price for the termination of wave 3). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7487

Forex Analytics CAD/JPY: sell target - 86.30 30 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov CAD/JPY reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 86.30 CAD/JPY today reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 87.30(which also previously reversed the earlier minor correction 4, former strong support from August, acting as resistance now after it was broken) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (v) from December. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave 5 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse (3) from October. CAD/JPY is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 86.30 (which stopped the minor impulse wave 3 earlier this month). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7488

Forex Analytics EUR/CAD: buy target - 1.5400 29 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov EUR/CAD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 1.5400 EUR/CAD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier this month – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the major round support level 1.5000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of this month. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line – completing the previous correction (ii). EUR/CAD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5400 (which reversed the price with the daily Evening Star in August). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7481

Forex Analytics EUR/GBP: buy target - 0.7400 29 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov EUR/GBP rises inside impulse wave (3) Next buy target - 0.7400 EUR/GBP continues to rise inside the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) - which started earlier this month, when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7300 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor upward impulse wave 5 from the start of this month. The active impulse wave (3) belongs to the sharp primary impulse wave ③ from the middle of November. EUR/GBP is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7400, which stopped the previous impulse wave (1) earlier this month. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7482

Forex Analytics GBP/CHF: buy target - 1.4900 28 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov GBP/CHF reversed from powerful support level 1.4600 Next buy target - 1.4900 GBP/CHF continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the powerful support level 1.4600 (which earlier reversed waves (A) and ② in August and October respectively). The support zone near the support level 1.4600 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price move from May. The latest upward reversal from 1.4600 stopped the C-wave of the previous ABC correction (2). GBP/CHF is likely to rise further in the next intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4900. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7474

Forex Analytics GBP/NZD: sell target - 2.1500. 23 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov GBP/NZD reached sell target 2.2000 Next sell target - 2.1500. GBP/NZD recently broke sharply below the support level 2.2000, which was set in our earlier forecast as the sell target for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 2.2000 follows the earlier breakout of the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse wave from April. These two consecutive support breakouts are likely to accelerate the active impulse waves 3 and ©- which belong to the extended primary ABC correction ② from August. GBP/NZD is expected to fall further in the active waves 3 and © toward the next sell target at the support level 2.1500 (target price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave 3). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7444

Forex Analytics NZD/USD: buy target - 0.6900 23 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov NZD/USD broke resistance level 0.6800 Next buy target - 0.6900 NZD/USD has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 - which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave from the middle of November. The active impulse wave 3 earlier reversed up sharply with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star from the support zone lying between the support level 0.6600 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price impulse from November. Having recently broken above the resistance level 0.6800 - NZD/USD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 0.6900 (which stopped the previous (A)-wave in October). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7445

Forex Analytics GBP/AUD: sell target - 2.0400 22 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov GBP/AUD falling inside impulse waves 3 and © Next sell target - 2.0400 GBP/AUD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 which started recently – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 2.1200 (breakout level of the previous up channel from May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward price move from August. GBP/AUD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and © (which belong to the primary ABC wave ②) toward the next sell target at the support level 2.0400 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7434

Forex Analytics AUD/CAD: buy target - 1.0200 22 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov AUD/CAD broke multiple resistance levels Next buy target - 1.0200 AUD/CADhas been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the 5th minor impulse wave 5 of the ©-wave of the primary ABC correction ② from September. The active ©-wave earlier broke the daily up channel from September, the resistance level 0.9850 (previous buy target set for this currency pair) and more recently – the price broke through the parity. The price today broke the next strong resistance level 1.0080 (which reversed the pair sharply in January, as you can see below). If the price closes today above 1.0080 - AUD/CAD can then rise to the next buy target 1.0200. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7433

Forex Analytics Credit Suisse: trade positions and signals 22 December 2015 Open positions: EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.0905, TAKE PROFIT 1.0640, STOP LOSS 1.0955 (Entered on December 21). EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 132.40, TAKE PROFIT 129.77, STOP LOSS 133.25 (Entered on December 21). USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9915, TAKE PROFIT 1.0030 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9880 (Entered on December 18). EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7250, TAKE PROFIT 0.7370, STOP LOSS 0.7198 (Entered on December 15). NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6700, TAKE PROFIT 0.6865, STOP LOSS 0.6680 (Entered on December 13). AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7280, TAKE PROFIT 0.6940, STOP LOSS 0.7385 (Entered on December 7). Trade signals: USD/JPY: SELL at 122.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.45, STOP LOSS 122.67 (Entered on December 21). USD/CAD: BUY at 1.3865, TAKE PROFIT 1.4320, STOP LOSS 1.3743 (Entered on December 21). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7429

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: forecast for December 21-27 EUR/USD failed to settle above 1.1000 and declined to 1.0800. The bears have to break below this level to provoke decline to 1.0730 and 1.0650. Resistance is at 1.0980, 1.1055 and 1.1100. These obstacles look strong. Economic data from the euro area in the past week were mixed: PMIs came generally in line with forecasts, but German IFO business climate index disappointed raising concerns about the region’s leading economy. This week we won’t see a lot of news from Europe. Spanish parliamentary elections can create volatility on Monday: the markets will be watching the event as the European Union urging Spain to make new budget cuts in 2016. Then there will be some minor data from Germany on Monday and Tuesday, while the second half of the week will be devoted to Christmas holidays. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7417

Forex Analytics USD/JPY: forecast for December 21-27 The dynamics of USD/JPY in the past week was determined by the actions of the central banks. Firstly the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rate making the pair go up. Then the Bank of Japan announced some changes to its monetary stimulus measures. However, the market regarded the step taken by the central bank as too small. In short, the BOJ will expand the types of assets it purchases, but the total volume of the program will remain the same. Dollar bulls got disappointed, and USD/JPY was once again rejected down from 123.50. Many failures at this resistance level make it a hard obstacle on the upside. At the same time, the action taken by the Bank of Japan will remind traders that it is actually conducting a massive monetary easing. Together with higher rates in America, this is a huge supporting factor for USD/JPY. There will likely be further technical decline in USD after the failure on the upside, but support line from 2013 is in the 119.20/00 area. Resistance is at 122.00, 123.50 and 124.00. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7418

Forex Analytics US dollar: forecast for December 21-27 US dollar showed moderate gains in the past week. The market regarded the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting as more hawkish than expected: the Federal funds rate range was increased by 25 bps and the forecast of the 4 rate hikes in 2016 remained unchanged. After the net bullish dollar positions declined in the first half of December and the currency corrected to the downside, it can now draw more support from the Fed’s decision. Looking forward we think that the greenback will be able to gain the medium term, though its gains will be gradual. Stock markets have responded to the Fed’s rate hike rather well, so the market’s risk sentiment should be supportive for American currency against the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc. This week watch US final Q3 GDP on Tuesday and a big block of data on Wednesday, including core durable goods orders and new home sales. At the same time, year-end flows will reduce the importance of fundamental drivers and can hurt dollar. On the other hand, keep an eye on oil, which remains extremely volatile: there may be further declines, so USD can gain more versus commodity currencies. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7416

Forex Analytics CHF/JPY: sell target - 121.00 18 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov CHF/JPY reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 121.00 CHF/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 123.50, the upper daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1 from October and the former support trendline of the earlier daily up channel from September (acting as resistance now after it was broken). The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone completed the previous minor correction 2 of the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from October. CHF/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the next support level 121.00. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7401

Forex Analytics CAD/JPY: sell target - 86.00 18 December 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov CAD/JPY falling inside impulse waves (iii) and 3 Next sell target - 86.00 CAD/JPY continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone surrounding the strong resistance level 89.00 (former strong support from September and the buy target set previously for this currency pair). The price reversed down sharply from the resistance level 89.00 – accelerating the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 3 – which belong to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from October. Having recently broken the support level 88.00 - CAD/JPY is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the next support level 86.00. Strong resistance remains at 89.00. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7400

Forex trading plan for December 18 By Elizabeth Belugina [Video] [/Video] US dollar strengthened on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve raised the Federal fund rate from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.50% and sounded less dovish than the market has expected. Although Janet Yellen underlined that further rate increases will be gradual and data dependent, the Fed’s members were confident about the American economy and still expect to raise interest rates 4 times in 2016. EUR/USD was rejected to the downside and further losses are likely. German Ifo business climate disappointed (108.7 vs. the forecast of 109.2). On Friday the euro area will release current account data at 09:00 GMT. Support is at 1.0800: the loss of this level can dramatically intensify selling – to 1.0730 and lower. Resistance is at 1.0980, but only a break above 1.1030/60 will allow further increases. GBP/USD slid towards 1.4900 area. Even the big increase in retail sales due to November sales wasn’t of much help to the pound (+1.7% vs. +0.6% expected). The loss of 1.4900 will bring the pound to 1.4880 and 1.4850. Recoveries should find resistance in the 1.5000/50 zone. USD/JPY is rapidly returning to the upside driven by higher US yields. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave policy unchanged. The central bank is still far from its inflation target, but other economic figures from Japan have so far been above expectations. The pair still has room for gains (resistance is at 123.60), though we don’t expect the Bank of Japan to give it positive drivers. Support is at 121.60. New Zealand’s Q3 GDP growth increased in Q3 from 0.3% to 0.9%, but NZD/USDdeclined because of general USD strength and dovish comments of the nation’s finance minister. The bears may test the lower border of the short-term uptrend at 0.6665 with the next support being at 0.6612. Resistance is at 0.6780. ANZ business confidence index is due during the Asian session on Friday. AUD/USD is vulnerable for a decline to 0.7100 after all the failures on the upside.USD/CAD is overbought, but 1.4000 target is in sight. Canadian inflation data at (13:30 GMT) are expected to come weak. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7393