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Forex Analytics GBP/CAD: sell targets - 1.8800 and 1.8660 16 March 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -GBP/CAD completed minor ABC correction 4 -Next sell targets - 1.8800 and 1.8660 GBP/CAD continues to fall after the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the following resistance levels: the former support trendline of the wide weekly up channel from November of 2014 (acting as resistance now after it was broken by the previous minor impulse wave 3), resistance level 1.9200 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier downward impulse from February. The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone completed the previous minor ABC correction 4. GBP/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.8800 and 1.8660 (low of impulse 3). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8281

Forex Analytics 3 currencies to buy this spring 15 March 2016 Analysts at Morgan Stanley have picked 3 currencies as the best investments for spring. 1. Japanese yen. Japanese investors have large assets abroad and will repatriate their funds. As a result, demand for the yen will increase and it will strengthen despite the Bank of Japan’s efforts to limit its strength. 2. Swiss franc. Risks for the euro area will remain negative maintaining demand for the franc as a safe haven. 3. US dollar. Demand for American currency will be high because of the lacking good investment opportunities in other markets, especially emerging. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8258

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: V-top stopped the bulls 15 March 2016 Sergey Logachev There’s a local “V-Top”, which led to a decline towards to the 89 Moving Average line. It's likely that the current downward movement is going to be deeper. If bears be stopped by the support at 1.4234 – 1.4193, then bulls will have a chance to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.4393 – 1.4444. The price has faced a resistance at 1.4444 and a “V-Top” pattern arrived afterwards. So, currently we have a decline in progress. The 89 Moving Average line acts as a support. It's likely that the downward movement is going to reach a support area between the levels 1.4234 – 1.4210. If we see a pullback from this area, then bulls will probably return to the market. In this case we should keep in mind the important levels 1.4371 – 1.4393, which can act as a resistance. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8254

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: consolidation continues 15 March 2016 Sergey Logachev We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern at the last high, which led to the current downward movement. It’s likely that the market is going to reach a support at 1.1067. If we see a pullback from this level, then bulls might try to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.1245 – 1.1273. There’s a flat movement between a resistance at 1.1214 and the 55 Moving Average line, which acts as a support. In the short term, bears are likely going to achieve a support area between the levels 1.1067 – 1.1057. If sellers be stopped by this area, then the price might start rising towards a resistance at 1.1245. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8253

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: technical analysis 14 March 2016 Sergey Logachev The market has faced a resistance at 1.1214, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern and declining afterwards. It’s likely that the downward movement will go on to a support at 1.1067. If we see a pullback from this level, the pair might start to rise towards a resistance area at 1.1245 – 1.1273. There’s a “V-Bottom” on the one-hour chart. The price was rising afterwards and finally reached a resistance at 1.1192, which led to the current downward movement. It’s likely that bears will keep trying to achieve a support area at 1.1145 – 1.1032. If these levels stops the decline, then bulls are probably going to return to the game, so we should keep an eye on a resistance area between the levels 1.1245 – 1.1257. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8231

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: technical analysis 14 March 2016 Sergey Logachev The market was correcting last Friday. Previously, bulls faced a resistance at 1.4444 and a “V-Top” pattern arrived afterwards. Anyway, it seems like we’ve got a local upward trend here, so the current downward correction is going to end somewhere in the support zone at 1.4343 – 1.4305. If we see a pullback from this area, the rise might resume towards a resistance at 1.4515. A “Pennant” on the one-hour chart was ended by the extremely fast upward movement. Finally, the price faced a resistance at 1.4444, which led to the current downward correction. It’s likely that bears have enough power to reach a support at 1.4316. If they be stopped by this level, there will be an opportunity for bulls to achieve a resistance at 1.4515. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8232

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: forecast for March 14-20 By Kira Iukhtenko The UK currency extended the upside last week, breaking above 1.4250. The pair holds in a bullish channel since late February and has potential for more recovery next week. Break above 1.4300 will open the way to 1.4350 (61.8% Fibo from the recent decline) and 1.4400 (channel resistance). Support is seen at 1.4250 and 1.4100. From the fundamental viewpoint, we expect the dovish Fed to support the cable next week. The US central bank is expected to underline the increased external risks for the economy on Wednesday. As for the UK economic calendar, watch the labor market figures on Wednesday and the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8223

Forex Analytics USD/JPY: forecast for March 14-20 By Elizabeth Belugina Japan released weak statistics during the past week. Only the GDP decline in Q4 wasn’t as big as initially seen. The sentiment of the biggest Japanese producers dramatically worsened in the first 3 months of 2016. The meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on Tuesday. The regulator is expected to keep its policy unchanged, although some analysts think that another cut in interest rates is possible in order to revive the nation’s economy. The current positions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are much alike, and traders have serious doubts about the effectiveness of their policy steps. The euro’s advance after the ECB announced new monetary stimulus measures creates risk of the similar reaction in case the Bank of Japan eases policy. When Japanese central bank reduced deposit rate at the end of January, the yen’s decline on the news was only short-lived. As a result, it’s more likely that the Bank of Japan will decide to save the easing measures for hard times in future. Japanese government bond yields tested record lows in the past week, so many experts think that the BOJ may do more easing only in summer. Without stimulus from the Bank of Japan, USD/JPY chances for growth are limited. The Federal Reserve’s meeting is another important event of the next week. However, even in case of more hawkish comments by Janet Yellen the outlook will be more negative, as the market’s sentiment will worsen affecting USD/JPY. The overall technical outlook for the pair still looks bearish. To change the situation the prices will have to rise above 115.00. Next resistance will be at 116.25 (55-day MA). Another bearish factor is yen’s buying from Japanese exporters ahead of the end of Japanese fiscal year this month. The consolidation range is getting narrower. Support is at 112.50, 111.00 and 110.00. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8225

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: forecast for March 14-20 By Elizabeth Belugina This time the ECB’s president Mario Draghi delivered more easing than the market expected. The central bank lowered main interest rate to 0.00%, cut deposit rate to -0.4% and expanded QE program from €60bn to €80bn a month. In addition, the regulator announced new ultra-cheap, 4-year loans to banks, allowing them to borrow from the ECB at negative interest rates. The expected effect followed, but was extremely short-lived: after sliding to 1.0825 EUR/USD soared to 1.1200. European bank shares gained, but then reversed down and closed at the negative territory. Such reaction of the market means that traders doubt that the ECB’s policy is effective. So far excessive monetary stimulus has failed to revive credit in the euro area. Buying of the euro was triggered by Draghi’s comments that the rates won’t be reduced much further. The single currency may now repeat its December dynamics, when after jumping on the ECB meeting EUR/USD went sideways and stayed in range even after the Federal Reserve’s meeting. The bullish move in the euro could have been in many respects an overreaction. Next week the euro may face negative pressure if the market’s sentiment improves and if the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike this year strengthen. At the same time, the bears probably won’t risk too aggressive shorts. Resistance is at 1.1250 and 1.1300. Higher levels of 1.1375 (February high) and 1.1460/1.1500 (September and October highs) returned into focus, but an increase there is possible only in case of the fix above 1.1250. Support is at 1.1050 (200-day MA), 1.0980, 1.0900. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8224

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: technical analysis 10 March 2016 Sergey Logachev There's a consolidation under the main downward trend. It's likely to see the bearish movement towards a support area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4078. The upward correction is probably going to begin afterwards to a resistance area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4193. We’ve got a “Triangle” pattern on the one-hour chart. It’s likely that the bearish movement is going to be deeper towards a support area between the 89 Moving Average line and the level 1.4133. The price might start an upward correction afterwards to a resistance area between the 34 and 55 Moving Average lines. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8202

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: technical analysis 10 March 2016 Sergey Logachev There's a flat in progress on the four-hour chart. It's likely to see the following bearish movement towards a support at 1.0922. However, bulls might come back to the market afterwards and try to reach the level 1.1067 in a support area between the levels 1.1032 – 1.1145. The price was going up and down yesterday. We've got a “Double Top” pattern, so it’s likely that the pair will go lower towards a support area between the levels 1.0972 – 1.0939. If we see a pullback from this area, it’ll be a sign that bulls are ready to go to a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.1011. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8201

Forex Analytics Norkina: USD/JPY is going to get down 9 March 2016 Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst Currency pair USDJPY it was being traded yesterday in a very narrow range within the cloud. Since the beginning of trading the situation was seized by bears, who had taken a direction under the support of Tenkan and Kijun lines (the latter formed a dead cross). Today's trading also began with the fall in prices. Bearish mood of market participants made a pair to go into negative territory which is under Ichimoku cloud. At the moment, all indicator lines went down. Therefore, it may increase sales. Technical Levels: Support - 112.70, 112.50, 111.00; resistance - 113.60, 113.30. Trading recommendations: 1. Sell - 113.20 / 30; SL - 113.50; TP1 - 112.50; TP2 - 111.10. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8191

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: candlestick analysis 9 March 2016 Galina Svetlova The “Window” has acted as a resistance once again, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami”. If we see a pullback from the nearest support line, it will be a start for a local upward correction. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a “Doji” and a “Deliberation”, which has been confirmed, so it’s likely to see the following decline until any reversal pattern forms. There’s an “Engulfing Bearish” and a possible “Three Methods”. The price is likely going to reach a resistance by the “Window” once again. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8192

Forex Analytics AUD/NZD: buy targets - 1.1080 and 1.1130 9 March 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0960 -Next buy targets - 1.1080 and 1.1130 AUD/NZD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the resistance level 1.0960 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which previously broke the daily Triangle from October of 2015. AUD/NZD is likely to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1080 (top of the previous minor impulse wave 1 from October) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next buy target at 1.1130. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8193

Forex Analytics AUD/CAD: buy target - 1.0085 9 March 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -AUD/CAD reached buy targets 0.9960 and 1.0000 -Next buy target - 1.0085 AUD/CAD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which recently broke the daily down channel December and the resistance level 0.9960 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The pair today broke above the next resistance level 1.0000 (second buy target set earlier for this instrument). AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0085 (which stopped the B-wave of the previous ABC correction (2)). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8194

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: technical analysis 9 March 2016 Sergey Logachev The market has found a resistance on the 89 Moving Average line and a consolidation was started afterwards. It's likely that the downward movement will go on to a support area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4078. However, if we see a pullback from this area, the price are probably going to rise towards the nearest resistance area 1.4193 – 1.4234. There's a “Triple Top” at the last high, which led to a correction towards the 34 Moving Average. The pair are likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.4234, but bears might try to come back afterwards and, so we should keep an eye on a support area between the levels 1.4133 – 1.4078. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8187

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: technical analysis 9 March 2016 Sergey Logachev The market has found a resistance at 1.1067, which led to the downward correction towards a support at 1.0957. It's likely to see the price even lower. If bears are stopped by a support at 1.0902, the pair might start the upward movement towars a resistance area between the levels 1.1032 – 1.1145. There's a “Double Top” pattern under a resistance at 1.1067, so the price had a reason to start a consolidation movement and finally a support at 1.0972 was achieved. It’s likely that the price is going to rise towards a resistance at 1.1011, but then bears might try to reach a support area between the levels 1.0939 – 1.0902. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8186

Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for March 9 By Elizabeth Belugina Weak Chinese trade figures affected the market’s risk sentiment, though the negative effect was less because of the seasonal effects: Lunar New Year holidays reduced the nation’s trade activity in February. Another positive factor is the continuing advance of oil prices. Brent rose above $41 a barrel. Data showed that China’s oil imports rose by 24.5% in February on the annual basis. The weekly data by the EIA will be released Wednesday. Kuwait’s oil minister said that his country will participate in an output freeze if all major oil producers, including Iran, agree to do the same. EUR/USD approached resistance at 1.1050 (200-day MA). A close above here is needed to allow growth to 1.1100 and 1.1165. The single currency was supported by the market’s cautious sentiment. In addition, German industrial production added 3.3%. Support is at 1.0980 and 1.0960 ahead of 1.0900. GBP/USD decline from the 1.4250 (50% Fibo of February decline) to 1.4200 area. The Bank of England announced that it has measures in place in order to diminish negative impact on the UK financial system in case of Brexit. Britain will release manufacturing production at 09:30 GMT. There’s downtrend resistance line in the 1.4300 zone. Next resistance is at 1.4350. Support is at 1.4150/00. USD/JPY slid to 112.75. Japan’s Q4 15 GDP was revised from -1.4% to -1.1% on the annualized basis. The pair is expected to remain in a narrow sideways range with support at 112.50 and 112.15 and resistance at 113.25/50. AUD/USD found support around 0.7400. The next revel to watch on the upside is 0.7530. Support is at 0.7380. For gold (XAU/USD) resistance is at $1280, while support is at $1260. Support for USD/CAD is at 1.3287 (200-day MA) and 1.3230 (uptrend support line). The loss of these levels will make the pair vulnerable for a decline to 1.3000. Firstly, however, correction up to 1.3455 is likely. The Bank of Canada is not expected to change its policy (15:00 GMT) as the government plans fiscal stimulus. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8184

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: candlestick analysis 8 March 2016 Galina Svetlova There’s a “Window”, which acts like a resistance. Previously, a “High Wave” pattern was formed on this “Window” area. It’s likely that firstly the price will go to a local correction, but then bulls might come back to the market and will try to achieve the upper “Window”. As we can see on the daily chart, here’s a “Deliberation” pattern, but it hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the current correction has a reason to go on until we’ve got any bearish reversal pattern. The upward trend become stronger since the last “Window” has been closed by several bullish candles. It’s possible to see a bearish “Harami” and a local correction towards the “Window”. The rise is likely going to resume afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8177

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: technical analysis 7 March 2016 Sergey Logachev We’ve got a local upward trend. The market found a resistance at 1.4234 and a correction was started afterwards. It’s likely to see the price a little bit lower, but if the level 1.4172 acts as a support, the new bullish movement might start towards the support area at 1.4305 – 1.4343. As we can see on the one-hour chart, a “Flag” was ended and the price started rising once again, but then bulls faced with a resistance at 1.4234. It’s likely that a decline will go on to a support at 1.4167, but then buyers might come back and try to reach a resistance area near the trend line. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8152

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: technical analysis 7 March 2016 Sergey Logachev The main downward trend has been broken and the price found a resistance on the 55 & 89 Moving Average lines. With this, it’s likely that we will see a decline towards a support at 1.0957. If the bulls takes over and the price starts rising from this level, then it's likely that the pair will test a resistance area between the levels at 1.1032 – 1.1145. There’s a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, which was finally ended by the bullish rally last Friday towards a resistance between the levels 1.1031 – 1.1145. A “V-Top” pattern was formed afterwards and the price started a downward correction. It’s likely that a decline will go further to an area between the support at 1.0957 and the 89 Moving Average line. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.1067 – 1.1113. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8151

Forex Analytics US Dollar: forecast for March 7-13 Kira Iukhtenko On Friday, the bunch of mixed US labor market figures shook the markets. US NFP surprised to the upside, while the average hourly earnings came out below the forecast. In the current conditions, the second indicator is more important for the Federal Reserve, so the demand for the US dollar declined after all. Next week we expect the bearish trend for the US Dollar to continue. Traders expect the Fed to reveal concerns on the prospects of the US economy on the March 16th meeting and delay the next step of policy tightening. US economic calendar for the new week is rather light. On Monday, listen to the FOMC members Brainard and Fisher speaking. On Wednesday, a new portion of the March crude oil inventories data will be released, while on Thursday pay attention to the US unemployment claims. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8142

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: forecast for March 7-13 Kira Iukhtenko The past week turned to be positive for the UK pound – the pair managed to rebound from the levels below 1.3900 to the levels above 1.4100. However, the bullish move was paused by the mixed US labor market figures on Friday. Technically, the pair is now testing the levels above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. What’s more, you may see a clear bullish channel and an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation on the H4 chart. We see potential for a recovery to 1.4250 on the coming week. Key support is seen at 1.4080. UK economic calendar for the new week is rather light. Watch the UK manufacturing production figures on Wednesday. The market will mostly be driven by the Fed’s expectations – we expect them to decline gradually ahead of the coming March 16 policy meeting in the United States. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8140

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: forecast for March 7-13 By Elizabeth Belugina EUR/USD tested 1.0825, but found some support because of the general weakness in the US dollar. The highlight of the week will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. The ECB President Mario Draghi said this week that the region’s growth and inflation outlook became worse and that the regulator will have to consider these negative developments at March meeting. European inflation turned negative in February: consumer prices fell by 0.2%. As a result, the possibility of more easing from the ECB on March 10 is almost 100%. The main question is how much the ECB will do. Traders are quite sure of a 10-basis-point cut. Other options available to the central bank include technical changes to quantitative easing (QE) program or an increase in monthly QE purchases from the current level of 60 billion euro. It’s clear that larger QE will drag the euro down, while the minor changes won’t be an obstacle for the bulls. In addition, European banks complain that negative interest rates are affecting their profitability, so the ECB may announce a multi-tier deposit rate system. Such step will encourage euro-funded carry trade and, consequently, increase bearish pressure on the euro. In our view, the ECB remembers how it disappointed the market in December when it delivered a too small easing package and will try not to repeat its mistake. The base scenario thus will be to sell the single currency on the event. The euro is vulnerable versus Australian dollar and other higher-yielding commodity currencies. Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1165 and 1.1250. Support is at 1.0830 and 1.0710. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8138

Forex Analytics USD/JPY: forecast for March 7-13 By Elizabeth Brelugina US labor market data turned out to be mixed. Despite strong Nonfarm Payrolls, average hourly earnings declined. As a result, the level of 115.00 (38.2% of February decline) still looks like a hard obstacle. Only a daily fix above this point will return power to the bulls. On the downside, support lies at 113.00, 112.20 ahead of 111.00. In the meantime, the market is starting to expect more action from the Bank of Japan and this is why the pair is trying to stabilize. There’s information that an advocate of aggressive monetary easing may join the central bank’s board at the end of March. The next Bank of Japan’s meeting will be on March 15. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak on Monday. A block of Japanese economic statistics is due on Tuesday. The market’s risk sentiment will also be important for the dynamics of USD/JPY. Chinese National People’s Congress will take place on Saturday. If the nation announces measures to support economy, including fiscal stimulus, the market’s risk appetite will revive reducing demand for the yen as a safe haven. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8139