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Forex Analytics Oil: the major trends of the week 27 April 2016 The week is still respectively positive for oil against the background of several crucial factors, including the following key issues: the US dollar easing, the US oil reserve decreasing and OPEC member’s disagreements about several fields development. A key factor, influencing the oil quotes now and probably the next few weeks, is the fact that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran are planning to increase oil production volume. Saudi Arabia is upgrading the Shaybah field capacity, that may produce additional oil volume within the coming months, if the modernization is finished according to the plans, i.e. by June of the current year. Kuwait’s oil production suffered last week because of oil workers’ strike, but as it ended oil will be produced more actively in Kuwait. Iran continues to increase oil production, willing to return to the value before sanctions. Starting from the current year, the daily production performance is increased by 1 million barrel; that consequently leads to target value of 4 million barrels per day. However, there is a number of crucial factors too: firstly, the US oil reserve report for the previous week shows the decrease by 1.1 million barrel, thought the increase by 2.4 million barrel was expected. The American Petroleum Institute (API) relies on the previously received data and says that the current oil reserve volume is on 538.4-million-barrel level. By the same token, there is information about Saudi Arabia’s and Kuwait’s inability to continue Khafji field development. Let us remind, that the field was closed in October 2014 due to the environmental issues. The field’s potential is estimated as 300 thousand barrels per day, and it may lead to higher oil productivity of both counties, but the field seems to be still closed for now. Moreover, one of the key factors is the US dollar easing prior to the Federal Reserve meeting. Despite the fact that the US dollar adjustments and its further easing are both possible after the meeting, investors are careful and tend to believe in the continuation of the “cheep” dollar era and the Fed rate stability in the near future. The factor positively influences the crude material price and supports both oil benchmarks. The trades of current week: At the time of writing (Wednesday, April 27), both benchmark crude oils are being traded around the 5-month maximum level prior to the Fed meeting results. Starting from Monday, Brent crude oil shows the increase by $1.65 per barrel and reaches the $46.55 level. The maximum growth was noticed on Tuesday evening (April 26), when investors started selling the US dollars actively. WTI Crude oil reacts in the similar way: it is traded at $44,88 level, near the key level of $45. The US crude oil increased by $1.3 from Monday in total. Brent/WTI, H1 If the Fed meeting’s results are negative to the US dollar, both oil benchmarks may show the increase by 1.5-2.5%. The Brent oil target value is $47.25 per barrel, the WYI oil target value is $46 per barrel. In case of the Fed meeting’s positive results, both benchmark may be traded down; the expected support level for Brent crude oil is around the $44.5 level, and WTI crude oil is supported at $43 per barrel. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8770

Forex Analytics AUD/CAD broke pivotal support level 0.9630 27 April 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -AUD/CAD broke pivotal support level 0.9630 -Next sell target - 0.9550 AUD/CAD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) – which started earlier - when the pair reversed down from the parity. The price today broke through the pivotal support level 0.9630 (which stopped the earlier sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of March, as can be seen from the daily AUD/CAD chart below). The breakout of the support level 0.9630 is likely to intensify the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions. AUD/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9550 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8764

Forex Analytics AUD/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3 27 April 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -AUD/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3 -Next selltargets - 1.1030 and 1.0960 AUD/NZD continues to fall inside the sharp minor impulse wave 3 - which started earlier – when the price reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.1250 and 1.1340. This resistance zone has been repeatedly reversing this currency pair from last year, as can be seen from the daily AUD/NZD chart below. The aforementioned resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. Having recently broken through the support trendline from the middle of January - AUD/NZD is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.1030 and 1.0960. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8763

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: bulls has shattered the "Window" 27 April 2016 Galina Svetlova The last “Three Methods” pattern did a great job as the price has broken the Moving Average lines. Moreover, it's likely to see a new “Three Methods” soon. If so, the market is likely going to move on towards the upper resistance levels. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Piercing Line” and a “Belt Hold” at the last low. Therefore, today’s candle is likely going to be bullish as well as yesterday’s one. There’s a “Three Methods” above the Moving Average. The market is likely going to test these lines during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, buyers will be more that just happy to deliver a new high. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8762

Forex Analytics EUR/USD storms the cloud 27 April 2016 Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst During yesterday's trading session EUR/USD managed to recover at the lower boundary of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud and the whole day tried to break through to the positive area. However, the bulls still cannot handle the cloud resistance, which was created around 1.1300/10. At the moment the situation is very difficult as, despite the bearish nature of the cloud, the bulls can break through the level. It will mean the renewal of the ascending daily trend. Technical levels: support – 1.1270; resistance – 1.1300/10. Trading recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1330; SL — 1.1310; TP1 — 1.1410; TP2 — 1.1450. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8761

Forex Analytics Westpac: why it’s time to buy AUD/USD? 27 April 2016 Analysts at Westpac recommend buying AUD/USD at 0.7585 with Stop Loss at 0.7495 as they expect in to make another bullish attempt to overcome 0.7800 next week and rise above 0.8000 next month. Australian dollar fell on Monday on the lower than expected inflation data from Australia. CPI came at -0.2% vs. +0.3% expected. Trimmed mean CPI. Which excludes most volatile items, was just +0.2% vs. the forecast of +0.5%. However, Westpac points out that iron ore prices are still high that is a very positive factor for Aussie. The specialists don’t think that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rate next week. On the other hand, they believe that the US dollar will decline after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, and the market’s risk sentiment will improve after the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Thursday – all of this is good for AUD/USD. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8760

Forex Analytics Pound continued to recover 27 April 2016 Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst Currency pair GBPUSD yesterday updated local maximums to 1.4640 again and gathered up to three-month levels. On the four-hour time frame, of course, there was a bullish pattern: there is still active gold cross formed by Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines; and Ichimoku cloud quite strongly expanded the range up, maintaining long-term traders. At the same time, the market must “throw off” load overbought, which was suggested by Chinkou Span. Therefore, in the near future we do not exclude the possibility of downward correction to the Tenkan-sen before the growth will continue. Technical levels: support - 1.4560, 1.4520; resistance - 1.4600, 1.4650. Trading recommendations: More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8759

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: the price took hold under the trend 27 April 2016 Sergey Logachev The price has been rising dramatically since a “Triple Bottom” was formed in a range of the last Support Zone. Finally, the price got a resistance at 1.4638 under the downtrend line. The market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4534 – 1.4513. At the same time, the second achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.4638 is still on the table. We've got a “V-Top” pattern, which brought a local flat to the market. It’s likely that the price is going to reach a support at 1.4534 – 1.4513. In case of a pullback from these levels, bulls will have an opportunity to taste the last high again. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8756

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: "V-Top" has been formed at the high 27 April 2016 Sergey Logachev The price has formed a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the last bullish movement. Finally, the pair reached a resistance at 1.1341, so we’ve got a “V-Top” at the local high. There’s a possible downward “Wedge” in progress, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve a support at 1.1217 – 1.1195. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1269 – 1.1294. The market was falling down since a “V-Top” was formed at the last high. There’re the Moving Average lines, which all are acted as a support. The pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.1284 – 1.1269. Considering a possible pullback from this area, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1309 as the next bullish target. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8755

Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for April 27 By Kira Iukhtenko Forex market remains calm ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting that will take place on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rate unchanged tomorrow and there is no press-conference planned. That’s why traders all over the world will be closely watching the FOMC policy statement for any hints on a rate hike on the June meeting. The chance for any is low in light of the worrisome economic indicators we’ve seen recently. On Tuesday week durable goods orders data confirm the concerns: US economy could have slowed down over the Q1 2016. These expectations are hurting the US dollar. EUR/USD is pushing higher for a second day in a row. Dovish Federal Reserve could support the euro tomorrow, pushing the pair towards the major resistance at 1.1460. However, the 1.1500 area still remains a hard nut to crack for the buyers, so be careful about going long on highs. There are no releases scheduled in the euro zone tomorrow, so all eyes will be glued to the Fed. GBP/USD has finally broken above the 1.4500 area. Given such a decisive move, I’m cancelling my bearish forecasts for now. An inverse “head-and-shoulders” pattern with an initial target of 1.5000 has been confirm. Beware the 1.4660 resistance, though (February high). Watch the UK advance Q1 GDP tomorrow – if slowdown confirmed, the pair could retrace lower, but later in the day the Fed could become a game-changer once again. You may find my analytical overview of USD/JPY and AUD/USD in the video. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8753

Forex Analytics USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone 26 April 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone -Next sell target - 109.00 USD/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 111.40 (former strong support level which reversed the price in February and March) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i) from the end of March. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor ABC correction (ii) which belongs to impulse 5 of the intermediate ©-wave from last November. USD/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 109.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 111.40. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8748

Forex Analytics GBP/CHF rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3) 26 April 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -GBP/CHF rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3) -Next buy target - 1.4290 GBP/CHF continues to rise inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary Ⓒ-wave, which started earlier – when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star from the strong support level 1.3400. The active impulse wave (3) earlier broke through the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from last December. GBP/CHF is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level1.4290 (top of the previous waves ( and 2; forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8747

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: "Belt Hold" left no chances for bears 26 April 2016 Galina Svetlova There's a possible ending of the current “Three Methods” pattern, which pushed the price to the 21 Moving Average. Bulls are likely going to move on towards the nearest resistance. Moreover, we've got two bullish patterns on the Daily chart such as a “Piercing Line” and a “Belt Hold”. Therefore, today’s candle is probably going to be a white as well as yesterday’s one. The two last “Three Methods” patterns have done a good job, so we’ve got a bullish rally on the way. Also, there’s an “Engulfing” pattern, which led to the current upward movement. It’s likely to see any kind of bearish pattern on the “Window” nearby. If so, it’s be a chance to local downward correction to happen. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8746

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: "Pennant" as a sign to a new high 26 April 2016 Sergey Logachev The price has faced a resistance at 1.4513, so currently we've got a local flat under this level. It's likely to see even more bullish pressure that is why we should bearing in mind the next resistance at 1.4569, which is reinforced by the downtrend upper line. If buyers be stopped here, it’ll be an opportunity to have at least a local downward correction. There’s a possible “Pennant” in progress under the nearest resistance at 1.4513. Therefore, the market is likely going to deliver a new high soon. The main target is a resistance at 1.4534 – 1.4569, which is strong enough to stop bullish feast of life. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8743

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: bulls will use to advantage the "Flag" 26 April 2016 Sergey Logachev The pair has found a support at 1.1233, which led to form a local “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price got a resistance by the 89 Moving Average afterwards. The market is likely going to deliver a new intraday high and then start a movement towards a support at 1.1195 – 1.1166. If bears be stopped somewhere in this area, there'll be bulls' turn to play, so we should keep an eye on one of the important resistances at 1.1217 – 1.1233. The price has been rising since a “V-Bottom” was formed at the local low. A few hours later, the pair faced a resistance at the 34 Moving Average, which brought a possible “Flag” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, it'll be a chance to see a new bearish rally towards the last low. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8742

Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for April 26 By Elizabeth Belugina US dollar started the weak under pressure as traders don’t expect any hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. American new home sales data turned out worse than expected (511K vs. 521K). On Tuesday the US will release durable goods figures at 12:30 GMT: analysts expect improvement after poor figures of the previous month. EUR/USD recovered to 1.1260. German Ifo business climate missed the forecast (106.6 vs. 107.1), though the data don’t change the fundamental picture for EUR/USD. Last week the ECB didn’t ease monetary policy, but underlined that its approach will remain accommodative. The euro’s failure to overcome levels in the 1.1400 area last week mean that the bulls don’t have enough strength to push the pair higher. Resistance at 1.1300 and 1.1350 should limit the upside. Support is at 1.1215 and 1.1150. GBP/USD tested levels above 1.4500 on Monday. British pound broke above resistance line connecting February and March highs and the next targets on the upside may lie at 1.4635/70. Support is at 1.4440 and 1.4400. The pair rose as US President Barack Obama spoke in favor of the UK remaining within the European Union. USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 111.87, but then tested levels below 111.00. Earlier the US dollar gained on the expectations that the Bank of Japan will start lending to banks at negative interest rate. However, traders still seriously doubt that any measures of Japanese central bank would be efficient. Below 110.85/75 the pair will slide to 110.30. AUD/USD recovered a bit after 3 days of declines. Resistance is at 0.7730. A break higher will open the way up to 0.7760 and 0.7800. Support is at 0.7690 and 0.7650. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8739

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: "Breakaway Gap" has been formed 25 April 2016 Sergey Logachev The price has been rising since a «V-Bottom» pattern arrived at the local low. The pair faced a resistance at 1.4458, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4347. If a pullback from this level arrives, it'll be a chance for bulls to deliver a new high. We've got a «Breakaway Gap», which led to form a «V-Top» pattern at the last high. The price found a resistance at 1.4458, so there's an open door for a downward correction. Therefore, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.4368. In case of a possible pullback from this level, a resistance at 1.4495 will be probably achieved soon. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8726

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: correction from the "V-Bottom" 25 April 2016 Sergey Logachev The pair was moving down on Friday, so we've got a support at 1.1233 and a «V-Bottom» pattern. It's likely to see a local upward correction. At the same time, bears have enough power to get a support at 1.1195 – 1.1166. If we a pullback from this zone arrives, it'll be a chance to see the price on a resistance at 1.1217 – 1.1233. We've got a «V-Top» pattern, which led to the current decline. Finally, the pair found a support at 1.1233, so there's an upward correction in progress. The market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1269 – 1.1284. If bulls be stopped somewhere in here, it'll be an opportunity for bears to achieve a support at 1.1217 – 1.1168. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8724

Forex Analytics USD/JPY continues consolidation 21 April 2016 Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst Yesterday USD/JPY managed to consolidate its position inside of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen lines and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud simultaneously has played the role of the support. The bulls inspired by it have updated their two-week maxima to 109.90, having rushed to Senkou Span B. Thus, the short-term trend is determined now by a Golden Cross, and we do not exclude the possibility of testing of the cloud upper boundary levels. Technical levels: support – 109.50; resistance – 110.60/65. Trading recommendations: 1. Buy — 109.50/60; SL — 109.30; TP1 — 110.60. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8698

Forex Analytics Nikkei 225 broke pivotal resistance level 17170.00 21 April 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -Nikkei 225 broke pivotal resistance level 17170.00 -Next buy target – 17800.00 Nikkei 225 continues to rise – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal resistance level 17170.00 (which earlier reversed previous waves 3, (A) and B, as can be seen from the daily Nikkei 225 chart below). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave from the start of Aril. Nikkei 225 is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 17800.00 (which stopped the earlier minor correction 4 in January and which is the forecast price for the termination of the active impulse wave 3). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8697

Forex Analytics AUD/CHF reached buy target 0.7540 21 April 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -AUD/CHF reached buy target 0.7540 -Next buy target – 0.7700 AUD/CHF recently broke above the strong resistance level 0.7540 (which reversed earlier waves (A) and 1 and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 – which recently broke the daily down channel from March and which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave from the middle of February. Strong support now stands at the support level 0.7540. With the accelerating daily Momentum - AUD/CHF can be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7700. Bus stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken price level 0.7540. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8696

Forex Analytics EUR/AUD reached sell targets 1.4600 and 1.4470 21 April 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -EUR/AUD reached sell targets 1.4600 and 1.4470 -Next buy target - 1.4400 EUR/AUD has been falling in the last few trading sessions - following the earlier breakout of the support levels 1.4600 (which is the 1st of the two sell targets set in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 1.4600 accelerated the active minor impulse wave C – which today broke the next support level 1.4470 (2nd sell target set previous for this currency pair). If the pair closes this week below the support level 1.4470 - EUR/AUD can then fall to the next sell target at the round support level 1.4400 (former strong support level from December, and the forecast price calculated for the completion of the active wave C). More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8695

Forex Analytics GBP/USD: price reached the "Thorn" once again 21 April 2016 Sergey Logachev The price has formed a “Double Top” under the nearest resistance at 1.4426. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.4282. If so, a rise becomes possible towards a resistance area at 1.4305 – 1.4343. We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which led to the current decline. The 34 Moving Average acted as a support, so bears currently have time to rest. Anyway, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4283. In case of a pullback from this level, bulls will have a chance to achieve a resistance at 1.4307 – 1.4343. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8692

Forex Analytics EUR/USD: bears took a cue from the "Double Top" 21 April 2016 Sergey Logachev We've got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price reached a support at 1.1284. The market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.1259 – 1.1233. If a pullback from this area happens, an upward correction will be possible. The pair has been falling down since a “Double Top” arrived at the last high. The price faced a support at 1.1284, which stopped bears for a while. At the same time, the market is probably going to decline towards a support at 1.1259 – 1.1244 in the short term. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8691

Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for April 21 EUR/USD: The market’s attention will be focused on the European Central Bank’s decision (11:45 GMT, no changes in policy are expected) and the press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT). European economic figures were brighter since the last meeting, but the regulator will likely emphasize that monetary policy will remain accommodative. The euro may test levels around 1.1300/1.1270 ahead of the event. Decline below 1.1240 will open the way down to 1.1140. Resistance is at 1.1375, 1.1400 and 1.1460. GBP/USD: British labor market data came out lower than expected. Growth of average hourly earnings slowed from 2.1% to 1.8%. It means lower wage inflation and lower chance that the Bank of England will increase interest rates anytime soon. BoE’s member McCafferty made dovish comments – this is negative for the pound. On Thursday the UK will release retail sales data at 08:30 GMT. The indicator’s decline is expected to slow down, though consensus shows that there still will be a negative reading. The latest Brexit poll showed that more people will vote for Britain to remain in the European Union. GBP/USD has reached resistance line connecting February and March highs. Resistance is at 1.4470/1.4500. Support is at 1.4340 and pound looks vulnerable for correction to 1.4260 and 1.4115. USD/JPY: US dollar made a higher low on and may try to correct up to resistance at 109.75, 110.00 and 110.75. Below support at 108.70 the pair should slide towards 108.00. Watch Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index at 12:30 GMT on Thursday. AUD/USD: The pair is technically overbought and has potential for correction down. Decline below 0.7800 will open the way down to 0.7750 and 0.7700. Lower levels of oil will help the bears. Above 0.7800 the focus will be on 0.7850, though we are cautious about going long at this point without a sizeable correction down first. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8687