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EUR/USD & German Ifo Business Climate: En route to 1.0900? 7/24/2016 Today at 08:00 GMT will be released a key data for Germany, as we'll know the Ifo Business Climate for July and this would be an interesting event to pay attention following Brexit's outcome, as the last ZEW sentiment report gave hints that Brexit's referendum will play a role into the german economy's development for coming months. Numbers in recent months have been positive for Ifo, but a slight decline from 108.7 to 107.7 is expected by analysts. The technical overview for EUR/USD at H1 chart is still calling for more downside after recent positive US data published. Also, the uncertainty around Eurozone's economy following “Brexit” is still alive. There is one bearish trend line projected from July 14th highs and the pair is consolidating below the 200 SMA. A breakout below the 1.0958 level (if Germany's data is dovish) will open the doors to reach the 1.0909 zone. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9737

AUD/USD: outlook for July 25-31 7/22/2016 Australian dollar declined on the expectations that the Reserve bank of Australia will cut interest rate at the next meeting in August. The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the central bank thinks that the nation’s economic growth may have declined in Q2, while inflation remains weak. The most important piece of information ahead of the RBA meeting will be the release of Australian Q2 inflation figures on Wednesday: the data will either strengthen the case for lower rates or make the market reprice the odds of a rate cut. AUD/USD is trading just above 0.7450 – this is a support line connecting May and June lows. Below this point support is at 0.7400 and 0.7350. Resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9735

USD/JPY: outlook for July 25-31 7/22/2016 USD/JPY made an attempt to take out 107.50, but failed to break higher and returned to the 106.00 area. The advance of the pair since the beginning of July was caused by speculation the Bank of Japan would directly finance Japanese government debt – a policy known as “helicopter money”. This week selloff was triggered by the release of the interview given by the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda to BBC Radio, in which he said that Japan doesn’t need to and won’t do such thing. Yet, note that after the retracement to the downside the pair stayed above the key support levels at 105.00 and 103.50. The reason of such resilience is that traders think that even if the BOJ doesn’t use such unconventional tool as “helicopter money”, it will expand its current monetary stimulus measures at its meeting on Friday, July 29. As Kuroda said, “there are no significant limitations to further monetary easing”. The Bank of Japan has reasons to act, because Japanese economic statistics remains week and consumer prices keep contracting. Fresh inflation figures from Japan will be also released on Friday. Yet, with USD/JPY far above 100.00, the Bank of Japan can allow itself not to be very aggressive. For now, the general downtrend is still in place – see the declining daily MAs. A fix above 200-week MA at 106.70 is needed to give the bulls more power. Fundamentally the figures out of the United States will also have an impact on USD/JPY next week as they may change the expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s rates. If the pair manages to overcome resistance at 107.50, next stops will be at 108.25 and 109.60. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9734

GBP/USD: outlook for July 25-31 7/22/2016 GBP/USD spent most of the week between 1.3330 and 1.3070. On the one hand, the pound was supported by higher UK labor market data. However, British retail sales contracted and services PMI fell by almost 5 points. All in all, the picture for sterling looks more negative than positive. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its forecasts for the UK, while G20 draft communiqué stated that the recent ‘Brexit’ vote could collaborate with the global uncertainty. The Bank of England is expected to ease monetary policy in about 2 weeks. As the expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike start to revive, this won’t allow GBP/USD to achieve any sizeable growth. We expect the pound to stay under pressure. Next week pay attention to the UK preliminary GDP on Wednesday, Gfk consumer confidence on Thursday and net lending to individuals on Friday. Support is at 1.3050 ahead of 1.2860 and 1.2500. Resistance lies at 1.3300 and 1.3500. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9733

EUR/USD: outlook for July 25-31 7/22/2016 During the past week EUR/USD moved lower, but remained in range, within which it’s staying since the end of June. The euro was affected by extremely weak economic sentiment indicators from Germany and the euro area. In addition, despite the fact that traders didn’t expect the European Central Bank to ease policy on Thursday, they were looking forward to dovish comments by the regulator’s president Mario Draghi. However, Draghi gave very little insight on future policy of the ECB. He noted that growth and inflation were moving along the path projected in June and that the regulator will monitor the economic situation. Draghi also said that if needed the ECB will act using all available tools. However, the regulator’s head gave no hints that monetary stimulus may be extended in September. That’s why there was no big euro selloff after the meeting. In addition, the euro area’s July manufacturing and services PMIs released on Friday turned out better than expected showing that these sectors aren’t much concerned about Brexit. The economic calendar for the next week is also rather interesting. On Monday Germany will release retails sales and Ifo business climate. On Wednesday German consumer climate will be published and on Friday we’ll learn euro area’s flash inflation and preliminary GDP for Q2. Statistics from the US may be even more important for EUR/USD, so check American calendar as well. We think that there will be opportunities to sell the pair on its attempts to get a bit higher, but with the lack of action from the ECB we expect no strong decline in the euro. Support is at 1.0970 and 1.0920. Resistance is at 1.1080 and 1.1130. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9732

US dollar: outlook for July 25-31 7/22/2016 Data released in the United States during the past week were mostly positive: building permits, housing starts and existing home sales exceeded expectations, while unemployment claims were at their lowest since April. The biggest disappointment was the slide in Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Next week the focus will be on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve since the Brexit vote. The central bank is not expected to raise interest rate, but traders, as usual, will be watching the changes in its statement. It’s interesting how the Fed evaluates the impact of Britain’s decision to leave the euro area on the US economy. According to the Federal funds rate futures, the possibility of a rate hike in the US by December increased since the beginning of the month from 12% to 45%. If American data keep coming positive, traders will start pricing in higher US rates. Monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks, which are expected to ease policy this summer – the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand, – will once again become the main driver of the market supporting demand for the US dollar. US dollar index, which tracks the dynamics of the greenback versus a basket of currencies, breached resistance at 96.80. This level limited dollar’s advance since the end of June. Above 97.00 next targets lie and 97.50 and 98.00. Other important events in the US economic calendar next week include CB consumer confidence and new home sales on Tuesday, core durable goods orders on Wednesday, unemployment claims on Thursday and advance GDP for Q2 and Chicago PMI on Friday. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9731

USD/JPY: "Harami" brought the bearish correction 7/22/2016 There’s a “Harami” at the last high, which has been confirmed enough, so the price reached the 144 Moving Average afterwards. The pair is likely going to achieve the middle of the last huge black candle. However, if a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to continue the current downward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing”, but its confirmation is still on the way. Therefore, bears are going to achieve the 21 Moving Average soon. We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Hammer” at the nearest strong support level. So, it’s likely to see a local correction during the day, but the next stage on the current bearish correction is still on the table. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9730

EUR/USD: bears going to come back to the market 7/22/2016 There’s a resistance by the upper “Window”. Also, we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a resistance by the middle of the last huge black candle. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another downward movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a couple of “High Waves”, but their confirmation hasn’t arrived yet. So, a downward movement is going to move on until any reversal pattern forms. We’ve got a local correction under the upper “Window”. At the same time, there’s a resistance by the 55 Moving Average, but we have a confirmed “Harami” at the local low. So, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, a downward movement becomes possible. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9729

USD/JPY will test mark at 104.69 7/22/2016 The pair failed to consolidate above the level of 4/8 (106.25). In addition, there was price fixing below STH4, that indicates a possible decline to the level of 3/8 (104.69). STD1 changed color, which also contributes to the bearish scenario. The fall can be held with the current position, so in the near future we should testing of mark at the level 3/8 (104.69). Slight breakdown upward STH4 is unlikely to change the plans of the bears. Trade recommendation: Sell – 106.30; sl – 107.20; tp 104.60. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9728

GBP/USD: flat in the "Triangle" 7/22/2016 The price has been moving in a flat’s range along a resistance at 1.3226. Also, we’ve got a “Triangle”, so the pair is likely going to move up towards the 89 Moving Average. If bulls be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to have a downward movement, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.3116 – 1.3015. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress. It’s likely that the market is going to reach the closest resistance at 1.3313 – 1.3336 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably reach the next support at 1.3104 – 1.3063. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9727

EUR/USD: two "V-Bottoms" in a row points to possible new high 7/22/2016 The price is consolidating under the previously broken “Triangle”. Also, we’ve got two local “V-Bottoms” in a row. So, the market is likely going to achieve the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970. We’ve got a local flat between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest support at 1.0980. Therefore, the pair is likely going rise in the direction of a resistance at 1.1057 – 1.1074. However, if a pullback from this area arrives later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.0970. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9726

EUR/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3 7/22/2016 EUR/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3 Next buy target - 1.4600 EUR/CAD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started recently – when the pair reversed up from the support level 1.4280 (upper boundary of the strong support zone which has been repeatedly reversing this currency pair from last November, as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below). The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to wave (3) - which also began from the aforementioned support zone. EUR/CAD is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4600 (which previously reversed the price in June). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9725[b

CAD/CHF reached buy target 0.7600 7/22/2016 CAD/CHF reached buy target 0.7600 Next sell target – 0.7420 CAD/CHF continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 - which began earlier- when the pair reversed down from the resistance level 0.7600 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.7600 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.7600 completed the previous minor ABC correction 2 from June. CAD/CHF is likely to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 0.7420, which has been reversing the price from May. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9724

USD/CAD: bulls are driving the market 7/22/2016 On the daily USD/CAD chart the bulls aim to test the upper border of the triangle (1.3186). Successful break of this resistance will allow the pair to rise to 1.3306 (38.2% Fibo of the last decsending wave and 1.3540 (161.8% target according to AB=CD). The buyers are holding the initiative.The main recommendation is to buy the US dollar on the pullbacks down. On H1 USD/CAD is trading within an uptrend. The level of 1.314 acts as a target (target at 161.8% according to AB=CD). The nearest support is at 1.3075. Recommendation: BUY 1,3075 SL 1,3 TP1 1,33 TP2 1,354. CAD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9723

EUR/USD: bears are not discouraged 7/22/2016 On the daily chart the attempt of the sellers to break below 1.1 once again didn't succeed. However, the bears are still retain the initiative and keep try pulling the pair out of 1.1-1.1175 range aiming at 161.8% of AB=CD (1.089) target. the nearest resistance is at 1.1072 (38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave). On H1 EUR/USD chart resistance at 1.1038 mentioned in the previous article twice stopped the bulls. The pair is currently consolidating in the 1.0987-1.1052 range. Successful test of its upper border will bring the pair up to 1.1074 and 1.1096, break of the lower border will open the way down to 1.089. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9722

GOLD probably make a rebound to the area of 1343.75 7/21/2016 The rebound from the level of 4/8 (1312.50) can be completed back to the area of STD1, which still has the bullish color. Nevertheless, we should not exclude the scenario of falling to the level of 3/8 (1296.88), for which requires the break of 4/8 at least one third of the level widths. It should be noted that 4/8 was already support, so the probability of re-bounce is high. The first target can be the level of 6/8 (1343.75). Trade recommendation: Buy – 1318.00; sl – 1311.00; tp – 1341.00. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9721

AUD/NZD rising inside minor C-wave 7/21/2016 AUD/NZD rising inside minor C-wave Next buy target - 1.0800 AUD/NZD has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the start of July. The active C-wave earlier broke the resistance level 1.0540 (which stopped the previous A-wave). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor C-wave – which then broke the next resistance level 1.0700 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from March). AUD/NZD is likely to rise further in the active C-wave toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0800. Long entries can be protected with the stop-loss placed below the aforementioned price level 1.0700. More: [url=

EUR/TRY approached strong resistance level 3.4000 7/21/2016 EUR/TRY approached strong resistance level 3.4000 Next buy target – 3.4700 EUR/TRY has been rising sharply in the last few trading days inside the minor impulse wave 3 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 3.1880 (which reversed the price multiple times in March), lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse form November and the support trendline of the daily up channel from May of 2015. EUR/TRY is currently trading close to the strong resistance level 3.4000 (top of the previous impulse wave 1). If the pair breaks above 3.4000 - EUR/TRY can then rise to the next buy target at the major resistance level 3.4700. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9719

Major banks: forecasts for EUR ahead of the ECB Analysts of the major banks have different stake on what decision the European Central Bank will make at today’s meeting. The ECB minimum bid rate will be announced at 11:45 GMT. Mario Draghi’s press conference will start at 12:30 GMT. Citi: Short on the euro. The currency will make an abrupt move and then calm down. The market doesn’t expect much from the ECB, so any move lower in EUR can be enough to break ranges. IGN: The euro has potential to decline to 1.0850 versus the US dollar in the near term. Resistance is at 1.1050/80. BNPP: The market doesn’t expect much from the ECB. The central bank’s comments will be dovish, so the euro is unlikely to strengthen even if the ECB’s policy remains unchanged. Bank of America Merrill Lynch: There’s a slight downside risk for the euro, although a big move is not expected. UBS: The market is expecting dovish comments from the ECB, so the risks are for the euro’s increase after the central bank’s decision. Scotiabank: Although the ECB won’t change policy at this meeting, it could signal a policy easing in September and this should hurt the euro. EUR JPY AUD GBP

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as a resistance 7/21/2016 The nearest “Window” has acted as a resistance, which led to form a bearish “Harami” pattern. Therefore, we’ve got the current downward correction. If the price faces a support on the 34 & 89 Moving Averages, bulls are likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a probable “Engulfing”, which makes possible an achievement of the closest support line. There’s a “Harami”, which had been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support line. If a pullback from here happens soon, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance on the 13 & 34 Moving Averages. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9717

EUR/USD: "Hammer" triggered upward correction 7/21/2016 We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. Also, there’s a “Harami” on the closest “Window”, so the pair is likely going to test the middle of the last huge black candle once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, which points to a possible upward correction. However, bears will probably try to deliver a new low afterwards. There’s a “Harami” on the 55 Moving Average, which has been confirmed. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the next 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish rally. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9716

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" stopped bearish rally 7/21/2016 We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward movement. Also, the price found a resistance at 1.3226, but bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.3336. At the same time, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will probably try to approach a support at 1.3116 – 1.3015. There’s a “Triple Bottom”, which brought bulls into the market. The price faced a resistance at 1.3273, so the we’ve got a local consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.3273 – 1.3313 in the short term. If a pullback from here arrives, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price lower, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.3015 – 1.2970 as a possible next bearish target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9706

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" set up bullish correction 7/21/2016 The price faced a support at 1.0970, which led to form a reversal “V-Bottom”, so we’ve got the current upward movement. So, bulls are likely going to get a resistance between the 34 Moving Average and the level at 1.1083. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “V-Bottom”, which led to the current bullish price movement. Also, the 55 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. Therefore, the market is likely going to move up towards the closest resistance area. However, if sellers form a pullback from the trend line, then another downward movement will be on the table. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9705

AUD/USD: the Aussie feels insecure 7/21/2016 The Australian dollar stayed under bearish pressure. During yesterday's session, the Bears pushed the pair to the negative area, breaking down the support of a lower border of Ichimoku cloud to the 0.7450. Note that the short-term market sentiments influenced by dead cross. At the same time, the Chinkou Span is in the oversold zone. And the Bulls can take advantages for the correction inside a cloud. Technical levels: support – 0.7430; resistance – 0.7500. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7500; SL — 0.7520; TP1 — 0.7430; TP2 — 0.7400. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9704

GBP/USD: the Pound doesn’t hurry to lose its positions 7/21/2016 The Pound during yesterday's session was corrected along the bottom border of the Ichimoku cloud and rose up to 1.3270. But it met the horizontal Kijun-sen, which stopped the bullish movement. We note, in the area of 1.3300 formed a strong resistance from which possible the continuation of the downtrend. Technical levels: support – 1.3170; resistance – 1.3300. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.3300; SL — 1.3320; TP1 — 1.3170; TP2 — 1.3060. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9703