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GBP/USD & UK Manufacturing Production: A lower continuation across the board? 8/9/2016 Today at 08:30 GMT will be released the UK manufacturing production, where the markets are expecting a rise from -0.5% to 0.0% in the June's reading. During the last months, results for this indicator have been showing a mixed pattern, with the recent two data posting numbers above the expectations, while for April and May, the data was negative. Remind that the BoE recently launched its new easing program and Sterling could be weighted in coming weeks due to the UK economic's slowdown. Our technical picture for GBP/USD at H4 chart, there is a triangle pattern still in the place and the overall trend is bearish. A below-than-expected reading could send the pair to lower levels and possibly, it can break the bullish trend line from that triangle. The mid-term target to the downside is placed around the 1.2869 level, while to the upside, the zone of 1.3143 is the next objective for bulls. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9972

USD/JPY: buyers broke the "Window" 8/8/2016 We’ve got a “Harami” and an “Engulfing” at the local low. Also, there’s a new “Window”, but we haven’t got any reversal pattern, which makes possible an achievement of the 34 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Harami” has been confirmed, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction. The price has been rising since a “Doji” arrived at the local low. Moreover, bulls have broken the “Window”, so there’s an open door for testing of the 144 Moving Average. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9971

AUD/CAD reached buy target 1.0000 8/8/2016 AUD/CAD reached buy target 1.0000 Next buy target - 1.0090 AUD/CAD recently broke sharply above the round resistance level 1.0000 (which was set in our earlier forecast as the likely target for the upward movement of this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii), which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the upper trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from December (acting as support now after it was broken). AUD/CAD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0090 (top of the previous minor correction 2 from January). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9970

GBP/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave 5 8/8/2016 GBP/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave 5 Next sell targets - 1.7000 and 1.6750 GBP/AUD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 5 – which started previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the lower trendline of the recently broken wide weekly down channel from 2015 and the resistance level 1.7750. The active minor impulse wave belongs to the sharp intermediate impulse wave © from the end of May. GBP/AUD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the round support level 1.7000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.6750. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9969

EUR/USD: bears faced support by "Window" 8/8/2016 There’s a bullish “Hammer” at the local low, but its confirmation has been canceled by the last bearish “Harami”. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a possible “Three Black Crows” pattern, so right after a local upward correction, bears will probably try to deliver a new low. We’ve got a strong support by the lower “Window”. Also, there’re a “Harami” and a “Three White Soldiers”, so the market is likely going to test the middle of the last huge black candle once again. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9968

EUR/USD: extension in wave [iii] is coming soon 8/8/2016 Wave 4 has been ended in a form of a “Double Three”. Also, we’ve got a resistance by the 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which led to form a downward impulse in wave . Under this circumstances, wave [iii] is likely going to form an extension. The main intraday bearish target is -1/8 Murrey Math Level. There’s a possible ended wave (ii) below 4/8 Murrey Math Level. Previously, wave (i) was stopped by 2/8 Murrey Math Level. So, the market is likely going to break the last low during wave’s (iii) rally. If we see a pullback from 0/8 Murrey Math Level afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to see a local upward correction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9967

GBP/USD: bulls going to reach Moving Averages 8/8/2016 We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which brought a consolidation into the market. Considering a support at 1.3017, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.3148 – 1.3174 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to achieve the next support at 1.3017 – 1.2970. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9966

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" let bulls to move the market higher 8/8/2016 The price couldn’t break the nearest support area, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, which led to a local upward movement towards the Moving Average lines. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1120 -1.1148 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to another decline in the direction of a support at 1.1045 – 1.1023. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9965

USD/JPY: correction to the Cloud 8/8/2016 Technical levels: support – 101.75, 101.20; resistance – 102.30/40. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 102.30; SL — 102.50; TP1 — 101.75; TP2 — 101.20. Reason: incorrect golden cross formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish Ichimoku Cloud; strong resistance formed buy Senkou Span A. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9955

GBP/USD: pound has lost its positions 8/8/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.3060, 1.2930; resistance – 1.3100, 1.3135. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.3100; SL — 1.3120; TP1 — 1.2930; TP2 — 1.2900. Reason: a bullish Cloud, but falling down Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; there is a trades under Ichimoku Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9954

EUR/USD: euro supported by cloud, but its under negative pressure 8/8/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1090, 1.1070; resistance – 1.1140, 1.1170. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.1140; SL — 1.1160; TP1 — 1.1070; TP2 – 1.1000. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling down Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9953

Key option levels for Monday, August 8th 8/8/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 75 397 ? + 112 764 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1152(65?); 1.1182; 1.1203; 1.1229 Closest support levels 1.1078; 1.1050; 1.1031; 1.1006 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell EUR/USD below 1.1078, with target points at 1.1050 and 1.1031 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1152 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1182 and 1.1203 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 27 569 ? - 26 075 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3200; 1.3242; 1.3268; 1.3297 Closest support levels 1.3066/51; 1.3011; 1.2972; 1.2948 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3066, with target points at 1.3011 and 1.2972 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3200 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3242 and 1.3268 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest - 39 581 ? - 31 878 ? Closest resistance levels 102.27; 102.60; 102.82; 103.07 Closest support levels 101.33; 100.97; 100.79; 100.56 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.27, with the target points at 102.60 and 102.82 Alternative scenario Moving below 101.33 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.97 and 100.79 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest - 15 157 ? - 8 464 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3201; 1.3224; 1.3256; 1.3296 Closest support levels 1.3089; 1.3060; 1.3023; 1.2977 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Buy USD/CAD above 1.3201, with the target points at 1.3224 and 1.3256 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3089 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3060 and 1.3023 EUR JPY GBP CAD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9952

AUD/USD: will bears find strength to attack? 8/8/2016 On the daily AUD/USD chart the pair is moving within uptrend channel. The market's sentiment will remain bullish as long as the pair's trading above support at 0.7570 (61.8% Fibo of the last descending wave). On H1 AUD/USD is trading near 78.6% Fibo of the last descending wave. If the bears manage to hold the quotes below resistance in the 0.7622-0.7627 area, then further decline to the 0.757-0.7579 convergence area (lower border of an uptrend+61,8% Fibo of the last bearish wave + daily support) will activate the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% is near 0.75. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9949

EUR/USD won't give up without a fight 8/8/2016 On the daily EUR/USD chart bears failed to settle below support at 1.1072 (23.8% Fibo of the last descending wave). If the pair recoils from the upper border of the trend channel and returns to 1.1175, it will be a signal that the bulls have seized the initiative. On the other hand, sustainable break above 1.1072 will increase the risk that the long-term downtrend resumes. On H1 EUR/USD failed to break the lower border of the downtrend at the level of 88.6% "Shark" pattern's target (convergence area). In order for the bears to show their power, the pair should successfully test 1.1082 and 1.1051. The nearest resistance levels are at 1.1114 and 1.1170. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9948

USD/CAD & Building Permits: On it's way to reach the 1.3350 level? 8/8/2016 Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the building permits in Canada and analysts are expecting a rise from -1.9% to 2.7%, but that indicator should have a medium-impact on the CAD pairs. Latest releases had been showing declines and giving hints that constructions in Canada hadn't performed well. However, with a positive number we should see that Canadian dollar attempts a rally against other currencies during this week. The technical picture for USD/CAD at H4 chart is still very bullish following the US NFP's positive numbers. The greenback's strength should push higher the pair towards the 1.3387 level, where a pullback should happen. This bullish scenario remains alive, as the Loonie has been following a bullish trend line since June 22 session. However, if numbers in Canada today are positive, then a pullback to the 1.3100 psychological level is possible. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9947

AUD/USD: outlook for August 8-14 8/5/2016 Although economic news from Australia weren’t very exciting, Australian dollar manage to hold ground against its US counterpart. Australian economic figures disappointed: building approvals kept contracting, trade deficit widened, while retail sales growth was weaker than expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate from 1.75% to 1.5%. However, this decision was already priced in by the market, and AUD/USD rebounded from 100-day MA and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud in the 0.7485 area and made an attempt to overcome 2016 resistance line. However, strong US nonfarm payrolls brought AUD/USD lower. A weekly close below 0.7635 will open the way for decline to 0.7580 and 0.7550. Further support is at 0.7490. As for the economic calendar, NAB business confidence will be released on Tuesday. On Wednesday we’ll hear from the RBA Governor Stevens. Australian central bank doesn’t like stronger national currency, so if the RBA voices its concerns Aussie bears will finally take the situation in their hands. Also watch China’s economic statistics as it will affect the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, AUD/USD. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9946

USD/JPY: outlook for August 8-14 8/5/2016 USD/JPY tested lower levels as it slid to support at 100.70. Japanese cabinet approved 13.5 trillion yen ($132.04 billion) in fiscal measures on Tuesday to revive the nation’s economy. There was no significant impact on the market from the decision as the news about this stimulus package were out a week before. Although the regulator announced plans to review stimulus program in September, traders fear that the Bank of Japan has run out of monetary policy tools. Good nonfarm July payrolls provided a positive driver for USD/JPY. However, the overall downtrend is still in place, and we believe that recovery represents nothing more but correction. Resistance lies at 102.50 and 103.60. Break below 100.70 will open the way down to 100.00. Japan will release current account figures on Monday and core machinery orders together with tertiary industry activity figures on Wednesday. Rapidly expanding current account surplus is a source of negative pressure on USD/JPY. Also pay attention to statistics from China that will have an impact on the market’s risk sentiment: the nation will release trade balance on Monday, inflation on Tuesday and industrial production on Friday. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9945

GBP/USD: outlook for August 8-14 8/5/2016 The Bank of England eased monetary policy in order to reduce uncertainty caused by Brexit. The regulator cut the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.25% and expanded bond buying by 60 billion pounds of government bonds and 10 billion pounds of corporate bonds. The BoE also set up a new funding scheme for lenders. This easing package has exceeded the market’s expectations. Note that Governor Carney said that further interest rate cuts are possible, though underlined that the rates will remain above 0. Still, given solid US labor market figures British pound will likely remain under negative pressure versus the US dollar. GBP/USD fell below 1.3100. The pair breached down the triangle and the next levels to watch on the downside are 1.3000, 1.2950 and 1.2840. Resistance is at 1.3100 and 1.3210. As for British economic calendar, important pieces of data are due on Tuesday: don’t miss the releases of manufacturing production and goods trade balance. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9944

EUR/USD: outlook for August 8-14 8/5/2016 EUR/USD rose to 6-week highs above 1.12, but 2016 resistance line limited further advance. The pair was constrained on the upside by 100-day MA. All in all, the lines are horizontal, which means that there’s no strong pull for the pair in either direction. Below 1.1100 (50-week MA) the pair will head to the lower border of the recent trading range at 1.1015/00. Next support will be at 1.0960 (June-July support line). Fundamentally there are reasons for the euro to find support at the mentioned levels. As the Bank of England has launched itself into new aggressive monetary stimulus measures, a more moderate approach of the European Central Bank will become distinct – a positive thing for the euro. Problems with European banking sector are not expected to harm the single currency in the near-term as well. Next week watch German industrial production and Sentix investor confidence on Monday, German trade balance on Tuesday, French industrial production on Friday and the euro area’s preliminary GDP on Friday. It will be the second estimate of the region’s economic growth in Q2: according to the initial data GDP growth slowed down from 0.6% to 0.3%. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9943/EURUSDDaily(10).png

US dollar: outlook for August 8-14 8/5/2016 In the first days of the past week the US dollar was still feeling the negative impact of the market’s disappointment with weak American Q2 GDP growth. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs also declined, though the sectors kept growing, just at a slower pace. American labor market data released on Friday brightened the picture. US nonfarm payrolls showed solid gain in jobs in July. NFP came at 255K beating the forecast of 180K. June reading was revised up to 292K. The unemployment rate didn’t decline, but growth of average hourly earnings accelerated to 0.3%. As the Bank of England eased monetary policy in the past week, it reminded investors about monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The difference is that the Fed is at least looking for opportunity to tighten policy and this should support the greenback. The market currently sees 9% chance of US rate hike in September. Positive data inflow from the world’s largest economy may increase these expectations and, consequently, demand for the greenback. Next week the most important day in the US economic calendar will be Friday: America will release retails sales, producer prices and preliminary consumer sentiment. US dollar index managed to return above 96.00 after testing levels below 95.00. Resistance is at 97.60 and 98.00. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9942

EUR/NZD reversed from resistance zone 8/5/2016 EUR/NZD reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 1.5400 EUR/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 - which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse (5) from the middle of July. Impulse wave (5) started when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5850 (former support from June), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of May. Given the strength of the downtrend that can be seen on the daily EUR/NZD charts - the pair is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.5400. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9941

GBP/NZD under bearish pressure 8/5/2016 GBP/NZD under bearish pressure Next sell targets - 1.8000 and 1.7750 GBP/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3), which is the part of the primary downward impulse wave ⑤, which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the round resistance level 1.9000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the end of June. GBP/NZD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (3) and ⑤ toward the next sell target at the support level 1.8000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.7750 (forecast price for the completion of wave (3)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9940

USD/JPY: Moving Average waiting for bulls 8/5/2016 There's an “Engulfing” at the local high, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles are bearish and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Also, here’s “Thrusting Line”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, so right after a local correction bears will probably try to break the last low. We've got a “High Wave” on the 34 Moving Average line, which has confirmed enough. Therefore, it’s likely that the pair is going to reach the 34 Moving Average once again during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to see another bearish rally. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9939

EUR/USD: "Engulfing" set up bullish correction 8/5/2016 There’s a “Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. So, it’s likely that the price is going to reach the nearest resistance in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing”, but its confirmation a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to move up and down between the closest support & resistance levels. We've got an “Engulfing” on the 89 Moving Average line, but also there’s an unconfirmed “Harami” at the local low. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the nearest resistance line, which could reverse the price movement into a bearish direction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9938

Key option levels: August 5 8/5/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 11 757 ? + 118 596 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1188; 1.1215; 1.1234; 1.1256 Closest support levels 1.1103; 1.1068; 1.1044; 1.1016 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell EUR/USD below 1.1103, with target points at 1.1068 and 1.1044 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1188 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1215 and 1.1234 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 895 ? + 1 287 ? Closest resistance levels 102.03; 102.44; 102.69; 102.99 Closest support levels 100.68; 100.30; 100.11; 99.88 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.03, with the target points at 102.44 and 102.69 Alternative scenario Moving below 100.68 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.30 and 100.11 EUR JPY More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9937