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EUR/USD: bulls faced "V-Top" pattern 8/19/2016 The consolidation above the previously broken trend has been finally ended by the fast bullish rally, but the price faced a resistance at 1.1381. Also, we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1324 – 1.1349. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1381 – 1.1398. We’ve got a “Flag” pattern on the one-hour chart, which led to the current upward price movement. Considering a “V-Top” pattern, the pair is likely going to get a support on the 55 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10127

Key option levels for Friday, August 19th 8/19/2016 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 145 ? + 583 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3190; 1.3214; 1.3230; 1.3250 Closest support levels 1.3116; 1.3092; 1.3075; 1.3055 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3190, with the target points at 1.3214 and 1.3230 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3116 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3092 and 1.3075 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 2 137 ? + 617 ? Closest resistance levels 100.68; 100.87; 101.09; 101.36 Closest support levels 99.74; 99.48; 99.20; 99.00 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 100.68, with the target points at 100.87 and 101.09 Alternative scenario Moving below 99.74 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 99.48 and 99.20 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 979 ? + 148 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2825; 1.2858; 1.2903; 1.2958 Closest support levels 1.2757; 1.2736; 1.2715; 1.2687 (critical) Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Buy USD/CAD above 1.2825, with the target points at 1.2858 and 1.2903 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2757 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2736 and 1.2715 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10126

EUR/USD: the inspired bulls 8/19/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1300, 1.1270; resistance – 1.1350, 1.1450. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1300; SL — 1.1280; TP1 — 1.1350; TP2 – 1.1450. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is overbought. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10122

USD/JPY: the Bears get a strength 8/19/2016 Technical levels: support – 100.00; resistance – 100.20/40. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 100.20; SL — 100.40; TP1 — 99.00; TP2 — 98.50. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong resistance of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10125

AUD/USD: trades in the Cloud has continued 8/19/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7590; resistance – 0.7660. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7590; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7660; TP2 — 0.7700. Reason: a dead cross, but Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal; bullish Ichimoku Cloud. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10124/03-audusdh4(7).png[/img} More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10124

GBP/USD: breaking out the resistance of the Cloud 8/19/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.3120, 1.3080; resistance – 1.3160, 1.3230. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.3120; SL — 1.3100; TP1 — 1.3230; TP2 — 1.3290. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the bulls are breaking out the Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the markets overbought. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10123

USD/CHF: bears feel like home 8/19/2016 On the daily USD/CHF chart the pair teached 127.2% AB=CD target, after which it made a sizeable recoil to the downside. Inability of the bulls to hold above important support of 0.956 will increase risks of decline to 0.9485 (161.8%) and 0.94 (200%). The nearest resistance level is at 0.9595. On H1 USD/CHF is trading within a descending trend channel. The pair for now failed to reach 161.8% AB=CD pattern target, although the bears don't stop attempts to do that. Sellers will act at 0.9575, 0.9595 and 0.965. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10121

EUR/USD: will the Indians stop the bulls? 8/19/2016 On the daily chart EUR/USD, as expected, managed to reach convergence area of 1.1343-1.1358 (61.8% Fibonacci of the last bullish wave + upper border of the bullish trend channel). Then the pair consolidated. Buyers keep gathering strength for a new attack. If it succeeds, the euro may rise to 1.1420 and 1.1462. On H1 EUR/USD formed "Three Indians" pattern at 161.8% of the BC wave of AB=CD pattern. This increased risks of correction. The nearest support levels are near 1.1307 and 1.1259. On the contrary, increase to August high will make the pair rise to 1.1421 (200% of AB=CD) and higher. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10120

Key option levels for Thursday, August 18 8/18/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 29 330 ? - 45 782 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1326; 1.1348; 1.1366; 1.1388 Closest support levels 1.1288; 1.1256; 1.1238; 1.1216 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1326, with the target points at 1.1348 and 1.1366 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1288 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1256 and 1.1238 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 424 ? + 968 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3116(33?); 1.3153; 1.3176; 1.3202 Closest support levels 1.3027; 1.3000; 1.2968; 1.2948 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3116, with the target points at 1.3153 and 1.3176 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3027 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3000 and 1.2968 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 676 ? + 1 913 ? Closest resistance levels 101.00; 101.45; 101.74; 102.07 Closest support levels 99.70; 99.37; 99.16; 98.90 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 99.70, with target points at 99.37 and 99.16 Alternative scenario Moving above 101.00 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 101.45 and 101.74 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 190 ? + 975 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2868; 1.2883; 1.2908; 1.2943 Closest support levels 1.2809; 1.2789; 1.2763; 1.2726 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.2809, with target points at 1.2789 and 1.2763 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2868 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.2883 and 1.2908 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10111

XAU/USD: ran into a triangle 8/18/2016 On the daily XAU/USD chart there's an uptrend channel, within which the pair formed "Spike and ledge" pattern on the pasis of 1-2-3. Successful test of the upper border of the ledge ($1365) will allow the bulls to continue rally at least to $1410 an ounce (200% according to AB=CD). On the contrary, a break of support at $1313 will strengthen the risks of corrective move towards the lower border of the trend channel ($1280). On H1 decline in volatility led to formation of a triangle. If the pair leaves the triangle, it may lead to serious growth or decline in the pair. Resistance levels are at $1354, $1362 and $1366 an ounce. Look for support near $1345, $1339 and $1332. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10110

GBP/USD: pound bared its teeth 8/18/2016 On the daily GBP/USD chart the inability of the bears to break below the convergence area at 1.289-1.295 and reach 78.6% target of Gartley pattern led to correction. The bulls returned the pair to the lower border of the previous consolidation range. Successful test of resistance at 1.3075 will help the pound strengthen towards the upper border of the triangle. On H1 GBP/USD broke above resistance at 1.3071-1.3075 will set off the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% target is near 1.332. On the contrary, if the bullish attack bulls fails, bears will have an opportunity to pulls the pair down to the target of green shark at 1.288. The first step will be successful test of support at 1.299. More: [urlhttps://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10109]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10109[/url]

GBP/USD ahead of UK Retail Sales: Will the Pound remain under bearish pressure? 8/18/2016 Today at 08:30 GMT will be released a key indicator for the UK economy, as the retail sales will be the market mover during early European session. During June, the indicator posted a worst-than-expected decline to -0.9%, but for July's outcome, analysts are expecting a rise to 0.2% on it's monthly reading. Regarding the yearly basis' data, retails sales could post a very slight decline to 4.2%, according to the market consensus. GBP traders will be paying attention to this data, as the recent downside pressure on Sterling should make it to fall towards post-Brexit and multi-year low, at the 1.2794 level. The GBP/USD pair is consolidated below the 200 SMA at H4 chart and that moving average is acting as dynamic resistance. If the pair manages to break it to the upside, then we should see a rally to the 1.3438 level, at least in the mid-term. However, our key support to the downside remains located at 1.2794 level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10108

Forex trading plan: into the FOMC minutes release 8/17/2016 Forex traders are waiting for this week’s highpoint – release of the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) meeting minutes. There was no press conference after July meeting, so the market players want more information from the central bank. The recent comments from the Fed members were hawkish: Lockhart expects at least 1 rate hike in 2016 and is sure that US economic growth will accelerate; Dudley says rate hike in September is possible as US economy will be stronger in the second half of the year; Williams thinks that the Fed should raise rates this year. It seems that the Fed wants the market to price in higher possibility of rate hikes. In July statement the regulator pointed out that risks to America’s economic outlook have diminished. All in all, the risk is that the statement will be more hawkish. So far traders didn’t believe the hawkish mood of the Fed speakers, the question is will they be swayed by the hawkish Fed minutes? Technical picture shows that the market’s is building ground for new sells of American currency. Trading plan for the next day will largely depends on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting. Analysts at SEB Bank have a strategy how to trade EUR/USD after the FOMC release. I can add that at the moment of writing EUR/USD is consolidating above support at 1.1260 and 1.1235. Technically the recent move to the upside looks unfinished. Targets are at 1.1376 (February high) and 1.1405 (Fibo extension target). At the same time, hawkish minutes can send the pair to July-August support line around 1.1150. GBP/USD retraced about 38% of Tuesday’s gains. Tuesday’s close above 1.3000 was good and there’s technical potential for recovery to 1.3100. Yet decline below 1.2990 on hawkish Fed will bring the pound to 1.2940, where the currency should find support. Further support will be at 1.2900 and 1.2850. Data from the UK released this week was positive. On Thursday the UK will publish retail sales data (08:30 GMT) and the forecast is positive. USD/JPY closed on Tuesday below the key level of 100.70 (50% Fibo of the 2011-2015 advance) – bearish sign. According to the weekly pivot points, the pair’s at the bearish territory. Resistance is at 101.15 (daily high, previous support line. Close below this level will mean continuation of the downtrend and will likely lead to another attempt of the bears to test levels below 100.00. If hawkish Fed hits the wires, we’ll see a recovery to 101.50 and probably to 102.30/80. The bulls failed to push AUD/USD above 0.7755 for the third time. A selloff to 0.7615 followed. This is the former 2016 resistance line, which now acts as support. Watch where the pair closes on Wednesday – it will provide you with key hints on the pair’s future dynamics. Break below 0.7600 on hawkish Fed will open the way down to 0.7630 (lower border of uptrend channel, 38.2% Fibo). If the pair manages to stay above this important level. We’ll see consolidation in the 0.7600/0.7700 area in the coming days. Note that Australia will release labor market data early during the Asian session on Thursday. EUR JPY AUD GBP More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10107

USD/JPY: "High Wave" brought bullish correction 8/17/2016 There’s a bullish “Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough. Also, we’ve got a small “Doji”, so the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average once again. If we get more bearish patterns on this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, but if a “Harami” finishes at the end of the day, bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction. We’ve got a “High Wave” at the local low, which led to an achievement of the 55 Moving Average, so there’re a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami” on this line. However, a confirmation of these patterns is a quite weak, so after a small correction bulls are likely try to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10106

EUR/USD: "Window" going to be tested again 8/17/2016 There’s a strong resistance by the “Window”, which led to form a “Shooting Star” and a “Tower” patterns, but their confirmation isn’t enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the “Window” once again in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible “Harami”, but today’s candle hasn’t finished yet. So, the closest “Window” is likely going to be tested again, which could bring more bearish patterns soon. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10105

SEB: how to trade EUR/USD on FOMC minutes 8/17/2016 Analysts at SEB propose an interesting trade strategy on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes (18:00 GMT). If EUR/USD rises in the next 3 hours after the release, then the specialists will buy the pair and close it in 24 hours. On the contrary, if EUR/USD declines in 3 hours after the release, sell the pair and hold position for 24 hours. According to SEB, EUR/USD tends to continue moving in the same direction on the day after the release of the minutes. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10104

EUR/USD: wave v of © is about to begin 8/17/2016 There’s a possible impulse in wave © of [y], which is taking place on the four-hour chart. Wave iv is likely going to end shortly, so there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement in wave v of ©. The main target is 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=300). As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave iv is developing a zigzag. Therefore, wave [C] of iv is likely going to reach 8/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to set up wave v of ©. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10099

Key option levels for Wednesday, August 17 8/17/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 96 725 ? + 64 216 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1309; 1.1328; 1.1343; 1.1361 Closest support levels 1.1244; 1.1227; 1.1205; 1.1179 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1309, with the target points at 1.1328 and 1.1343 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1244 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.1227 and 1.1205 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 2 150 ? + 1 104 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3110; 1.3147; 1.3171; 1.3197 Closest support levels 1.2995(82?); 1.2965; 1.2946; 1.2922 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Buy GBP/USD above 1.3110, with the target points at 1.3147 and 1.3171 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2982 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2965 and 1.2946 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 942 ? + 1 284 ? Closest resistance levels 101.28; 101.51; 101.79; 102.11 Closest support levels 100.09; 99.86(74?); 99.59; 99.39 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.09, with target points at 99.86 and 99.59 Alternative scenario Moving above 101.28 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 101.51 and 101.79 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 1 143 ? - 130 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2905; 1.2940; 1.2987; 1.3043 Closest support levels 1.2819/06; 1.2786; 1.2760; 1.2723 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.2819, with target points at 1.2786 and 1.2760 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2905 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.2940 and 1.2987 EUR JPY GBP CAD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10098

GBP/USD: "Double Top" stopped bulls 8/17/2016 We’ve got a new high, but bulls have been stopped by the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. Also, there’s a “V-Top” pattern, which led to the current local correction. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.3015 – 1.2954. At the same time, if a pullback from these levels arrives, bulls will have a chance to achieve a resistance at 1.3119 – 1.3173. The price faced a resistance at 1.3101, so we’ve got a consolidation on the one-hour chart. There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average, which is strong enough to reverse the price movement into an upward direction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10097

EUR/USD: "Thorn" led to bearish correction 8/17/2016 The price has broken the downward trend, but a “Thorn” arrived afterwards, so we’ve got a local correction in progress. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1235 – 1.1222 in the short term. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1349 later on. There’s a consolidation above the broken trend. So, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1235 -1.1222 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.1324. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10096

USD/JPY: correction to the lines 8/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 100.00; resistance – 100.60/80. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 100.60; SL — 100.80; TP1 — 100.00; TP2 — 99.00. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a market has corrected from the yesterday’s bottoms. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10095

GBP/USD: under the Cloud 8/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2970; resistance – 1.3060, 1.3090. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.3020; SL — 1.3040; TP1 — 1.2900; TP2 — 1.2860. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but there is a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Senkou Span A. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10094

USD/CAD: bears got scared 8/17/2016 On the daily USD/CAD chart bears managed to break below the lower border of the rising triangle. If they manage to hold ground, risks of decline to 1.274-1.276 ("Shark" pattern target + 61.8% Fibo of the last bullish wave) and 1.2624 (78.6%). The nearest serious resistance is in convergence area of 1.2956-1.2977. On H1 within a downtrend channel the pair formed 1-2-3. Break of resistance at 1.2893 (correction high + 23.6% Fibo of the last bearish wave) will acvtivate "Crab" pattern and strengthen risks of growth towards 1.295. On the other hand, successful test of support at 1.2839 will allow the seller to continue the downtrend. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10093

EUR/USD: bulls begin and win 8/17/2016 On the daily EUR/USD chart attack of the bulls, as expected, was a success. The buyers managed to break above the upper border of the meduim-term bearish channel and return to the lower border of the long-term bullish channel. The euro approached 161.8% target according to AB=CD. The nearest support is around 1.1269 (50% Fibo of the latest significant bearish wave). On H1 EUR/USD is trading within bullish channel. The previous resistance at 1.1209 is acting as support. The pair formed a "Spike and ledge" pattern. Break of resistance at 1.1289 will allow the bulls to continue moving up. Successful test of support at 1.1259 will allow the pair to move towards 1.1217, 1.1209 and 1.1184. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10092

EUR/USD & FOMC Minutes: When will we see the greenback's bottom for mid-term? 8/17/2016 Today at 18:00 GMT will be released the FOMC minutes from July's meeting, where the interest rates were left unchanged. Those minutes should be acting as a catalyst for commodities and US dollar, as the last one has been showing weakness during last few days and that situation is helping to strengthen its major competitors (EUR, GBP, etc). There are no major expectations regarding the content of that meeting, but it can give us some hints of possible rate hikes for this year. The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is reaching overbought conditions, as the pair had been rallying and it's fully consolidated above the 200 SMA. Next technical level is located in the 1.1327 price zone, where is placed the 100% Fibonacci extension, but a key resistance is at the 1.1379 level. Hawkish minutes should provide bullish momentum to the greenback and EUR/USD may slump to test Tuesday's low (1.1168) at least, while a very dovish should help the EUR to extend its gains against the dollar towards the 1.1379 level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10091