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EUR/AUD broke resistance zone 9/12/2016 EUR/AUD broke resistance zone Next buy target - 1.5120 EUR/AUD continues to rise sharply- following the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4900 (which reversed earlier waves (ii) and a, as can be seen below) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the previous extended downward price move from February. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active minor correction (ii) – which belongs to the intermediate C-wave from May. EUR/AUD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5120 (coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the aforementioned downward price move from February). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10423

AUD/JPY falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3) 9/12/2016 AUD/JPY falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3) Next sell target - 76.20 AUD/JPY has been falling strongly in the last few trading session inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 78.70 (top of the earlier minor correction 4), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from July. AUD/JPY is expected to fall down further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 76.20 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 5 in August, as can be seen below). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10422

Oil glut can drain oil bulls’ purses 9/12/2016 More supply is coming on to the oil market, with post-sanctions Iran stepping up production, the US adding drill rigs by seven to 414 according to the last week data from industry group Baker Hughes, Saudi Arabia’s rush for profits and never-ending rivalry between Gulf nations producing oil at almost their full capacity. The chances of an end to unrest in Libya and Nigeria, Venezuelan aspiration to revive its oil production once it manages to recover from its social and economic problems and waning refinery demand for crude oil are adding fuel to the flame. You do not have to be a prophet to expect a drop of oil prices if the forthcoming future. There is a slight possibility that the 15th International Energy Forum (IEF15) scheduled for the 26-28th of September this year will make any difference to the discernable trend of falling prices in the oil market. Therefore, many analysts have already started to warn oil bulls to be prepared for financial losses. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10421

GBP/USD: bearish impulse on the way 9/12/2016 Wave (2) was possibly ended last week, so there’s an opportunity to have wave (3) in the short term. Previously, wave [4] was delivered in a form of a zigzag. Therefore, wave (3) is likely going to start soon, so we should keep an eye on 1/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) as a possible bearish target. We’ve got a zigzag in wave Y of (2) with a flat in wave . Also, there’s a pullback from 8/8 MM Level, so there’s a possible bearish impulse in wave on the way. The main intraday target is 3/8 MM Level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10420

EUR/USD: possible wedge in wave (a) 9/12/2016 We’ve got a pullback from 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), so there’s an opportunity to have wave [y] of D in the short term. Also, there’s a zigzag in wave [x]. So, bears are likely going to reach 1/8 MM Level soon. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible wedge in wave (a). Previously, a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happened, which led to form a bearish impulse in wave i. Therefore, it’s likely to see wave v of (a) shortly. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10419

Key option levels for Monday, September 12th 9/12/2016 Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 111 889 ? + 159 181 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1292; 1.1320; 1.1336; 1.1355 Closest support levels 1.1215; 1.1194; 1.1168; 1.1137 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1215, with target points at 1.1194 and 1.1168 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1292 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1320 and 1.1336 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 31 450 ? - 28 156 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3319; 1.3347; 1.3378; 1.3398 Closest support levels 1.3246; 1.3216; 1.3196; 1.3173 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3246, with target points at 1.3216 and 1.3196 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3319 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3347 and 1.3378 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest - 54 294 ? - 40 707 ? Closest resistance levels 102.91 (103.06?); 103.24; 103.46; 103.69 Closest support levels 102.08; 101.77; 101.50; 101.13 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.91, with target points at 103.24 and 103.46 Alternative scenario Moving below 102.08 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.77 and 101.50 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest - 16 390 ? - 15 234 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3063; 1.3087; 1.3120; 1.3167 Closest support levels 1.2957; 1.2928; 1.2888; 1.2839 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3063, with the target points at 1.3087 and 1.3120 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2957 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2928 and 1.2888 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10418

GBP/USD: two "Double Bottoms" in a row 9/12/2016 Bears faced a support at 1.3247, so we’ve got a local consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Therefore, it’s likely to see an upward price movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.3302 – 1.3345. However, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bears will probably try to get a support on the 89 Moving Average. We’ve got a pullback from a support at 1.3251, so there’s a consolidation in progress. Also, there’s a “Double Bottom” pattern, so bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.3318 – 1.3334. If we get a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.3209. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10417

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" led to bullish correction 9/12/2016 The price faced a support on the Moving Averages, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. So, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1270 – 1.1282 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.1196 – 1.1181. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price achieved a resistance at 1.1251. It’s likely that bulls are going to reach the next resistance at 1.1282 during the day. At the same time, bears will have a chance for a kind of revenge in we see a pullback from this resistance. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10416

EUR/USD held on the edge of the abyss 9/12/2016 On the daily EUR/USD chart the inability of the bulls to hold the pair above 1.127 provoked an attack of the bears. Support at 1.1206 limited the decline, but if the bears make another attempt to break it, the euro will continue down to 1.113 and 1.111. On H1 EUR/USD has reached the target on "Head and Shoulders" pattern. If the pair retests the nackline and then breaks support at 1.123 and 1.1206, the bears will take charge. On the contrary, if the bulls manage to settle above the nackline (1.126), successful test of resistance at 1.129 and 1.1313 will make the pair resume the uptrend. Recommendation: SELL 1.1206 TP 1.111 SL 1.126 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10415

EUR/USD: outlook for September 12-18 9/9/2016 EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1300 during the past week, but failed to settle at highs. The single currency strengthened as traders were disappointed by the European Central Bank’s decision not to ease monetary policy. The ECB signaled that it is ready to increase stimulus in future, but gave no hints on exactly what and when it plans to do. As the possibility of the US Federal Reserve lowering rates in September remains low, monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed has weakened and the downward pressure on EUR/USD declined. At the same time, the amount of the market’s net short positions on the euro wasn’t high, so the squeeze of these positions won’t be able to produce sustainable growth of the European currency. If comments of the Fed’s members next week are hawkish, we will actually see lower levels of the pair. As for Europe’s economic calendar, the ECB president Mario Draghi will speak on Tuesday. Also watch the release of German and euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment indexes. The region’s industrial production will be published on Wednesday and final inflation and trade balance will be released on Thursday. The inability of EUR/USD to hold above 100-week MA (currently at 1.1268) means that further growth of the pair will likely be limited: it seems that higher levels of the single currency attract sellers. Support for the pair is provided by the moving averages: 100-day MA just above 1.1200, 50-day and 200-day MAs close to 1.1150. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10413

US dollar: outlook for September 12-18 9/9/2016 US ISM services PMI showed dramatic decline of 4.1 points in August falling to 6-month low. This together with disappointing nonfarm payrolls and contraction in manufacturing hurt positions of the US dollar bulls. By the end of the week, however, American currency managed to recover. The odds of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September remain low, but its probability rose, according to CME futures tool, from 15% at the beginning of the week to 24% at its end. Market players are still unsure and ready to change their expectations. That’s why attention to the forthcoming American data releases will be high. The US will release a big block of economic statistics on Thursday: retail sales, producer prices, Philly Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims, current account, Empire State manufacturing index and industrial production. In addition, don’t miss the speech of FOMC member Lael Brainard on Monday: there’s speculation that she may deliver some hawkish comments that will be positive for the US dollar. Still, the greenback’s ability to strengthen on hawkish hints from the Fed should be limited: although some members of the central bank clearly try to keep the expectations of September rate hike alive, after the recent weaker economic figures the market won’t attach much importance to these attempts. Analysts at Sociate Generale point out that despite weaker data from the United States Forex market doesn’t offer good alternatives to USD. Yields in the euro area and Japan are negative. The highest yields are currently offered by the New Zealand, but NZD has already strongly appreciated during the recent month. The downside of the US dollar index was limited by the support line from May lows in 94.50 area. Resistance is located at 96.15 – resistance line connecting August highs. More: [url=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10411]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10411[/img]

NZD/CHF reached buy target 0.7220 9/9/2016 NZD/CHF reached buy target 0.7220 Next sell targets - 0.7150 and 0.7100 NZD/CHF continues to decline – following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the key resistance level 0.7220 (top of the previous sharp impulse wave 3 and the buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the wide weekly up channel from January. Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance zone - NZD/CHF is expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7150 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 0.7100. [img[https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10407/NZDCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-09_1337_PM_(1_day).png[/img] More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10407

Trade balance and exchange rate: what you need to know 9/9/2016 Trade balance and exchange rate: what you need to know Perhaps every trader while reading financial news comes across some incomprehensible concepts or just cannot trace the correlations between economic events and their reflection in statistics. We have decided to give you a hand in the vortex of this information and fill you in on any of the characteristics of forex market and exchange rate determinants. Filling the gaps in our knowledge of the trade deficit and exchange rates correlation To take a stab at helping you to understand the pressure that trade deficits might exert on the exchange rates, let me challenge you with some definitions. Let’s look at something called the balance of payments. It is a record of all economic transactions between the residents of a certain country and the rest of the world for a given period of time. It consists of sub-accounts – the current account and the financial account. The current account records the sale and purchase of goods and services as well as unilateral transfers, whereas the capital (or financial) account records transactions of purchase and sale of foreign assets and liabilities during a particular year. So when the US buys TVs from China, that should be recorded in the US current account. Thus, when Americans spend a whaling sum of money on Chinese goods, the people of China have only two things to do with that money in order to keep their balance of payments. They can buy US goods in return, or they can buy US financial assets (like stocks and bonds). And the later transactions will be already recorded in the other side of the account – the financial one. If consumers, governments or business of a certain country are searching to buy more staff than their country is producing domestically, they have to import it. So there is a trade deficit that has to be mitigated by selling financial assets to pay for the imports. If a country doesn’t take measures to eliminate this trade deficit, it may reduce its national indicators (GDP, in particular). Takeaways: Trade surplus creates demand for the country’s currency and makes its exchange rate go up. Impact on exchange rates Once we shed light on some essential definitions, let us procced to the very essence of this article – the link between trade deficits and exchange rates. When a country exports more than it imports (in other words, when the difference between exports and imports is positive), the country is having a trade surplus; there is a high demand for its goods and thus for its currency. Law of demand states that when demand is high, prices rise and thus the currency appreciates in value. Alternatively, when the opposite is true, when a country imports more than it exports, there is relatively less demand for its currency, so prices reduce. In this case, the country is experiencing a trade deficit, its currency automatically depreciates, and the country’s GDP is shrinking. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10406

AUD/USD: on the Clouds support 9/9/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7625; resistance – 0.7700. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7620/25; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7730. Reason: a strong support of Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10403

GBP/USD: correction to the Cloud 9/9/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.3270; resistance – 1.3360. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.3270; SL — 1.325; TP1 — 1.3360; TP2 — 1.3420. Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen but the strong support of Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10402

EUR/USD: keeping stand above the Cloud 9/9/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1240/60; resistance – 1.1300/20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1260; SL — 1.1240; TP1 — 1.1320; TP2 – 1.1380. Reason: the prices are above the Cloud; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10401

AUD/USD: bears countercharged 9/9/2016 On the daily AUD/USD chart the attempt of the bulls to restore the uptrend ended in a failure. The break of support at 0.7611-0.7625 may lead to a correction towards 0.752. The nearest resistance level is near 0.773. AUD/USD breached the lower border of the uptrend channel and fell to support at 0.764. Its successful test will allow the pair to keep moving to 0.761 and 0.758. Recoil higher will allow the uptrend to resume. The nearest resistance is close to 0.7675. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10400

EUR/USD: bulls made a stop 9/9/2016 On the daily EUR/USD chart the bulls failed to settle above the lower border of the bullish trend channel. If another attack on resistance at 1.1330 is successful, the risks of continuation towards 1.1415 and 1.1462 will increase. The nearest support levels are at 1.126-1.127 and 1.123. On H1 EUR/USD the bulls failed to break resistance at 1.1313 from the first attempt, which would become a signal of a break in bearish trend. If another attempt to break higher fails at 1.1293 and 1.1313, the pair will form a "Head and shoulders" pattern. As a result, the pair may slide to 1.123 and 1.1206. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10399

USD/CAD & Employment Change: Is the next target placed at 1.30 handle? 9/9/2016 In Canada, at 12:30 GMT we'll have the Employment Change's release and the analysts are expecting a change from -31.2K to 15.0K and with that scenario, CAD pairs should see volatility during the event. During Thursday, BoC's Lane said that the job market is still recovering and that could give us an idea of what will happen with the jobs data in Canada for coming months. Let's see if the indicator shows an improvement for August. Our technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is calling for a rebound continuation towards the resistance zone of 1.3003, where the 200 SMA is located. Also, there is a bullish trend line placed from August 18th session and is acting as dynamic support. If we see a positive number during today's release, then the pair should break that trend line and it can find support once again at the 1.2777 level, while in the another scenario, a consolidation above the 1.3003 zone should push higher to the pair towards the 1.3133 level on a first degree. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10398

Forex trading plan for September 9 9/8/2016 USD: US unemployment claims were a bit better – lower – than expected (259K vs. 264K). FOMC Member Rosengren will speak at 11:45 GMT on Friday. EUR: The European Central Bank left the key interest rates unchanged and said that expects them to stay at current or lower levels for an extended period of time. The regulator didn’t extend QE program beyond March 2017, but promised to do so if necessary. The ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central bank realizes that there are constrains to its current QE program and that the matter is being studied, but gave no details about that. The euro area’s economic growth and inflation forecasts were revised to the downside, but very slightly. The single currency rose as analysts expected more dovishness from Draghi. EUR/USD rose above 1.1300. Next target on the upside lies at 1.1360. Support is at 1.1230, 1.1200 and 1.1150. GBP: There were no important releases in the UK on Thursday. GBP/USD made another step down approaching support at 1.3300. Decline below this level will open the way down to 1.3235/00. Resistance is at 1.3375. JPY: Japan’s final GDP growth for Q2 was revised a bit to the upside, though the nat5ion’s current account surplus narrowed. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said the central bank would not rule out deepening negative interest rates or any other easing steps needed to achieve its price target, but gave few fresh clues on whether the BOJ will expand monetary stimulus this month. USD/JPY was little changed in 101.70 area. Increase above 101.90 will let to a correction to 102.35. Decline below 101.50 will open the way down to 101.00 and potentially 100.70. AUD: Aussie surged as Australia’s trade deficit narrowed and China's imports unexpectedly rose in August. AUD/USD was testing levels above 0.7700. The ability of Australia dollar to continue gains depends on whether the pair manages to close above this mark. Next resistance is at 0.7770, while support is at 0.7650. EUR JPY AUD GBP More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10397

Recent economic developments for AUD 9/8/2016 After Australian Q2 GDP release had been published, it became clear that expectations of economists were almost fully justified: the 0.5% quarterly expansion was slightly off the 0.6% pace predicted, on top of this, the year-over-year expansion was at the 4-year high of 3.3%. Bearish reaction of speculators was predefined since the RBA is still expected to be dovish in the forthcoming future. Although Australia showed 100 quarters without a recession, domestic demand in Western Australia fell by 2.5%, households carry on massive debt loads and the economic picture may deteriorate, because the mining boom is over. According to the recent data of the Australian bureau of Statistics released earlier today, after seasonal adjustments, the trade deficit of Australia narrowed to $2.41 billion. In addition, the value of exports increased by 3% to $26.214 billion, thanks to a hefty contribution from non-monetary gold exports. AUD/USD rose to 0.7700 on the news. Strong national currency is believed to be a primary cause of concerns for Australian central bank. A possible reduction of the interest rates can be viewed as a very effective pill for the sluggish Australian economy. Therefore, despite Glenn Stevens’s decision to leave the RBA’s interest rates unchanged, we may expect the opposite move from the RBA in the months ahead, according to some economic experts. September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was the last for Stevens as its governor: from now on he will be replaced by the deputy governor Philip Lowe. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10396

EUR/USD: wave i going to begin 9/8/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10395/Image20160908163204001.png There’s a possible ending of wave [x] in a form of a zigzag. So, it’s likely that bears are going to deliver wave [y] of D soon. However, a confirmation is required, so we should wait until the price finds a lodgement under 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If so, the next intraday target will be 1/8 MM Level. As we can see on the one-hour chart, bulls haven’t broken 7/8 MM Level, which points to a possible ending of the current upward impulse in wave © of [x]. Therefore, it’s likely to have a bearish wave i, which is going to reach 4/8 MM Level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10395

ECB: main moments of Mario Draghi’s press conference 9/8/2016 - The euro zone’s economy is resilient, but the risks to the economic growth are to the downside. - The ECB will continue its monetary stimulus measures. - Economic growth and inflation forecasts are slightly revised to the downside, but not enough to make the ECB rate. - Draghi acknowledged that the ECB won’t be able to keep buying 80 billion euro of bonds a month, so the central bank is studying the options for smooth implementation of asset purchase program. - The ECB realized the constraints in its QE program, but Draghi underlined the ECB’s determination to reach its targets. The ECB President, however, didn’t provide any details of how it plans to do so. - Without monetary stimulus from the ECB, the euro area would be severely hit by the economic shocks. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10394

What do analysts recommend ahead of the ECB? 9/8/2016 Morgan Stanley: Bullish view on the euro. So far the euro zone’s economy hasn’t been hit too hard by Brexit. ECB will ease policy in December. Barclays: The ECB will adopt a wait and see approach. The outlook for EUR/USD is neutral. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi: The ECB will extend QE only in October or December. EUR/USD will gain. RBS: ECB will extend QE to September 2017. Bank of America Merrill Lynch: The ECB will extend QE, but negative impact on the euro will be limited. Societe Generale: The danger is that the ECB does nothing at the meeting. This won’t lead to a surge in the euro, but it will be supportive. EUR More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10393

USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new low 9/8/2016 There’s a bearish “Harami” at the local high, but its confirmation isn’t enough. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest “Window” once again. If we see a pullback from it, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Hammer” remains unconfirmed, so bears are likely going to move on. The price has been falling down since an “Evening star” was formed at the last high. Also, there’s a strong resistance by the nearest “Window” and the Moving Averages. We’ve got an “Engulfing”, but its confirmation is a quite weak. Therefore, it’s likely to see another test of the “Window”. If there’s a pullback from it, bears are likely going to deliver a new low. >More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10392